Der Gedankenansatz war doch vielleicht mit dem Halbsatz:....." wenn dort eine Währungsreform stattgefunden hat." 
Grüsse
Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)
- ThaiGuru
- Geschlossen
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Echte Währungsreformen waren in der Vergangenheit weit größere Einschnitte in die Vermögenswerte meist über dem Verhältniss Alt 10 = 1 Neu und gennerell sehr plötzlich eintreffend.
Der schleichende Wertverfall über 90 Jahre beim USD zählt daher m.E. wenig.
Daher halte ich eine Währungsreform bei 0,60 USD für "unrentabel"
Da muß m.E. noch ein brutaller Paukenschlag kommen
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Das ist doch völlig richtig,Osterhase.
Persönlich glaube ich auch nicht sehr,daß die Amis sowas machen.
Die fahren eher fast alles an die Wand.Hab im übrigen gesagt: "Wenn stattgefunden..".
Dann kannst Du jeden Wert,auch 10 (in Deiner Definition 0,1) einsetzen.Grüsse
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- Alert reader Norman Z sent me the note that David Dodge, who is the chief honcho dude at the Bank of Canada (the Canadian central bank), supposedly said "The world should expect an abrupt and disorderly economic correction in (by) 2007." Now, I cannot verify this report, but I say that I could not agree more, which I cleverly indicate by saying "I could not agree more." And if you want to see what happens to the price of gold when "an abrupt and disorderly economic correction" happens, then you are about to get a real lesson.
Nick Chase, author of The Contrarian's View newsletter, has a warm place in my heart because not only does he have nothing good to say about Ben "Bonkers" Bernanke, the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, but he is also very hip to what the ramifications are of so much money and credit being created. As another feather in his cap, he also agrees with Mr. Dodge, in that "In 2006 will come the hangover after the party.... the bear market will return with a vengeance."
- The Gold Report reports "Dubai wants to be the Switzerland of the Arab world and a world financial center. So they're doing the smart thing." As evidence of that, they note that Dubai will "launch a gold futures exchange on Nov 22, with South Africa's Standard Bank among 50 founding members. gold and silver options contracts would be launched in the first quarter of 2006." :))
- Bob Wood, of Kaizen Managed Assets reported that Jim Cramer, the manic stock picker
on his own CNBC television show called Mad Money, "has deftly staked out positions on both sides of the debate. While pounding the table on his own show every day for which stocks he wants you to buy right now, I caught his appearance on the Colbert Report. Cramer said he was a long term bear on the domestic stock markets. You read that right. He's bearish long term on U.S. stocks."- To show you the arrogance and intellectual impoverishment of business in America, get a load of this: "Auto supplier Delphi Corp. said Friday it has beefed up severance packages for top executives in order to encourage them to stay on as the company prepares for a major restructuring that could include bankruptcy." Hahahaha! These are the same guys who mismanaged the company into the toilet, but they are giving themselves more money to encourage themselves to not run away like rats deserting the ship, even as the employees, retirees, stockholders and bondholders are in the process of being screwed royally! Hahahaha! Delphi could have saved itself the money, as who in the hell would hire any of these blockheads anyway? Hahahaha!
- Bill Murphy of LeMetropooeCafe.com is really suspicious of the action in gold here lately. He says "The gold Cartel knows their ill-conceived scheme to manipulate and suppress the price of gold is going down. The price of gold is going to take off in the months and years ahead." So the way to capitalize on this slimy mess is to buy gold whenever the price is manipulated lower like this. I will point out, in case you are wondering, that this strategy has worked like a charm for years, and everybody who bought when the price inexplicably fell like this made a nice profit when the price of gold subsequently rebounded, as it always does nowadays. And I am pretty damned sure that it will continue working like a charm, too.
The surprising thing is that Mr. Murphy says that the guys on the Comex "have rarely ever seen anything like it", but that Goldman Sachs, alone, is doing all the monster selling that took gold down so dramatically here lately.
And Mr. Murphy sees the Bush Administration in this mess up to their eyeballs, as the White House knows that "If the US stock and real estate markets go against them in a significant way, they know they are done for", and a rising gold price is always seen as a reason to sell stocks and bonds and houses. Ergo, White House complicity in rigging the gold market!
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Zitat
Original von Aladin
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- To show you the arrogance and intellectual impoverishment of business in America,
- Bill Murphy of LeMetropooeCafe.com is really suspicious of the action in gold here lately. He says [B]"The gold Cartel knows their ill-conceived scheme to manipulate and suppress the price of gold is going down.And Mr. Murphy sees the Bush Administration in this mess up to their eyeballs, as the White House knows that "If the US stock and real estate markets go against them in a significant way, they know they are done for", and a rising gold price is always seen as a reason to sell stocks and bonds and houses. Ergo, White House complicity in rigging the gold market!
Mogambo at his best again!IÜ "impoverishment" = Verarmung
![:]](https://goldseiten-forum.com/wcf/images/smilies/pleased.gif "Freude")
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Gold: The financial Story of the Century
By Louis Paquette
November 2, 2005
But what will drive the next phase of the gold bull market?Next month marks the five-year anniversary of the Bull Market in Gold Stocks. I remember the very bottom well, after mulling over what was wrong with the gold sector for many months, finally timidly nibbling on Franco Nevada in December of 2000. It was both the smartest and dumbest thing I may have ever done. Smart enough timing, given this was just about the precise turning point after a 20-year decline. Dumb, for being timid about it.
The bull market began for the most basic fundamental of reasons. Sub-$300 prices were unsustainable because it was getting too close to the average cost of production. Lack of incentive to find and mine the metal would eventually severely restrict supply.
The crash of the US Dollar Index starting in early 2002 kicked off another phase of the bull market, driving gold to new multi year highs again by the end of 2004.
Lately, gold is decoupling from the Dollar and is rising in all currencies. The long term price chart is telling us a new phase of the bull market has begun when it broke through $450 in September to reach new successive 17-Year highs (the HUI Index has yet to confirm this new phase, but I believe it will, and soon enough).
"..a mere five years ago, Gold was considered the laughing stock of the financial community."
But what is driving this new wave of buying? Any bull market requires an increasingly larger circle of buyers to relieve earlier participants of their positions. Well, steady demand for jewellery for one, growing 16% in the first half of 2005. Jewellery demand sets the underlying base price range for gold, making up close to 80% of annual global demand. But the big price swings over time are caused by changes in Investment demand. And that demand is growing at triple digit rates.
Why this sudden acceptance? After all, it was a mere five years ago that Gold was considered the laughing stock of the financial community. Attitudes beliefs and perception, even when wrong, are very slow to change. My belief is that the average person, who never previously considered gold as an investment, is just recently beginning to come to grips with some of the serious problems that lie ahead (concerns outlined in our previous Issue for instance).
Given enough information over long enough time, eventually, the ugly reality begins to sink in. That, extremely poor relative returns for a fifth consecutive year now and people’s emotions, are what I believe are instrumental in driving the gold markets today and should continue to do so for some time to come.
Gold Stocks vs. Wall Street - who's laughing now?
Soon, mutual fund companies, brokers, insurance companies and the like, are going to start publishing their one, three and five year performance histories as folks begin preparing for another round of retirement savings contribution and tax return deadlines. Middle class Americans who have been afraid to look at their statement all year, but who have been faithfully stashing their retirement savings into mutual funds, which reflect the U.S. Stock Markets - are in for a big shock. After FIVE consecutive years now - funds reflecting Wall Street are still showing NEGATIVE returns.
The Dow appears to have roughly broken even. Funds mirroring the broader S&P 500 definitely had negative returns, while investments reflecting the NASDAQ experienced what appear to be double-digit Negative returns.
It gets worse. From those poor returns, subtract another 2% for inflation over five years, or another 10%. And then to add insult to injury, fund holders are charged another 2% "MRI" fees per year over five years. ANOTHER 10% - gone.
Now, overlay those horrible returns for a fifth year running - against shares of quality Gold mining stocks over the same period. The results are truly shocking. Over the same period, senior undhedged gold stocks are not up by double-digits, but a shocking 400% to 500%! That's an average of something like +80% every year!
The next phase of the gold bull market which I believe is just getting under way, will be driven by this kind of information over long enough time combined with the resulting raw emotions of envy, greed, fear and anger at how people have been betrayed by Wall Street.
The stigma is gone
One might question, in this Internet age of instant information - why did it take so long to sink in? Sure the information may be available. Beliefs change slowly, denial is an extremely stubborn trait! Also groupthink is important here - nobody wants to be part of a "fringe group” that the gold bugs were perceived as before. But now that the financial news networks are talking up gold on a daily basis, the sector has lost the stigma that was once attached to it. Indeed, the fools are increasingly looking more like the ones who have continued to have faith in a recovery on Wall Street.
Faced with a topping housing market, a gradual recognition of the Debt Bubble, along with the growing recognition of Gold as a stellar investment performer by mainstream financial media, folks will turn to the one financial asset investors can trust so far this century. That is, Gold and Gold stocks. :))
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Die eindrucksvolle Grafik zu dem Artikel vonPaquette:
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@ Edel Man
Ich hoer mir gerne Luis Paquette an, netter Kerl, macht gute Vorhersagen, er kommt oft bei:
http://www.howestreet.com/goldradio/index.php
Mal schaun wie teuflisch es heute zugeht auf den Gold und Silbermarkt.
Good luck guys
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Indien: Goldnachfrage steigt um 33 %
*** Gerade lese ich, was das "World Gold Council" für eine Prognose zur Goldnachfrage gibt. Beim Thema "Indien" wird es interessant! Ich zitiere:
"Es wird damit gerechnet, dass wegen der steigenden Einkommen, der guten Ernten und – wir fügen hinzu – einem boomenden Aktienmarkt, der Goldkonsum Indiens 2005 um 33 % auf 850 Tonnen steigen wird."
Eine Nachfragesteigerung um 33 %! Und der Ankauf von Gold hat auch schon begonnen, wenn man sich die folgenden Zahlen ansieht: "Die indische Goldnachfrage – ausgenommen recyceltes Gold – ist in der ersten Hälfte dieses Jahres um 57 % auf 508 Tonnen gestiegen. In der ersten Hälfte 2004 waren es noch 322 Tonnen." Vergleichen Sie das mit den 642 Tonnen, die Indien im gesamten vergangenen Jahr konsumierte.
AlJazeera.com berichtet, dass mehr hinter diesem Goldkauf steckt, als zuerst ins Auge fällt: "Indiens Haushalte sind auf einer riesigen Einkaufstour für Gold, weil die Inflation, die durch den steigenden Ölpreis angetrieben wird, droht, in einer der am stärksten wachsenden Ökonomien die Ersparnisse aus den steigenden Einkommen auszulöschen." Aha – die Leute strömen zum Gold, um der Inflation zu entkommen!
Das Problem, berichtet AlJazeera.com, sei, dass "die Einkommen der indischen Familien der Mittelklasse mit der Wirtschaft um robuste 7 %-8 % stiegen. Doch das Geld zur Bank zu bringen bringt lediglich Zinsen von 4 % – 5 %, was kaum mit der Inflation mithält." Kurz gefasst, man bringt sie um die Kaufkraft ihres Geldes, und als Antwort darauf kaufen sie für ihr Geld Gold, anstatt es bei den Banken zu lassen.
Ganz klar ein Faktor, der für einen weiter anziehenden Goldpreis spricht! Ich bleibe weiter bullish für das gelbe Edelmetall. Ein 1:1 Gold-Zertifikat mit Währungssicherung bzw. ein Edelmetall Bonus-Zertifikat gehört meiner Ansicht nach in jedes strategische Depot.
*** In der "Zeit" habe ich gerade ein interessantes Interview mit William J. McDonough gelesen. Das ist der Chef der amerikanischen "Bilanzpolizei", die ja bekanntlich deutlich härter durchgreift als in Mitteleuropa (völlig zu Recht). Dieses Interview zeigt, dass der Markt eben nicht immer alles von selber optimal regelt (funktioniert ja z.B. im Bereich Umweltschutz auch nicht, wegen der externen Effekte). Es gibt Bereiche, in denen der Staat einspringen muss – McDonough macht dies deutlich:
"Die Skandale der vergangenen Jahre (z.B. Enron) zeigen doch, dass der Markt nicht perfekt funktioniert hat. Hinzu kommt, dass es sich ja nicht um ein paar schwarze Schafe in einer ansonsten weißen Herde gehandelt hat. Diese Ansicht hat zumindest der Kongress vertreten, und ich bin ganz seiner Meinung."
Schade, dass es keinen deutschen McDonough gibt, der kriminelle Manager und Bilanztrickser in Handschellen abführen lässt, wie dies in den USA gang und gäbe ist.
Viele Grüße,
Michael Vaupel
Dieser Beitrag stammt aus Trader´s Daily.
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Zitat
Original von Aladin
@ Edel ManMal schaun wie teuflisch es heute zugeht auf den Gold und Silbermarkt.
Na hoffentlich höllisch,oder mindestens heiß (aufwärts)Grüsse
Hier stimmt die Richtung schon:
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Edel Man, man soll den Tag nicht vor den Abend loben,wenn die Crimex Bande kommt gehts dann wieder rueckwaerts und viele sind dann wieder angeschmiert.
Da hilft auch keine Brille wenn die loslegen und wieder manipulieren wie heute. -
Das kann man wohl sagen,Aladin.
Mich hatte lediglich das Teufelchen inspiriert.Im Ernst: Crimex ist eine sehr höfliche Definition der Gang dort.
Die müssen wirklich "Höllenangst" vor dem Absturz der künstlich
aufgeblähten Aktienmärkte und des Fiat Dollar haben! -
Wenn man so was sieht,wird vieles klarer.
Ich frage mich allmählich,wann diese Narren noch Geld
herausgeben dafür,daß man ihr letztes Gold ausleiht.Grüsse
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Goldpreismanipulation
vom 01.11.2005 und heute ist fast identisch
die lassen sich nicht mal mehr was neues einfallen
siehe http://www.kitco.com/ 3 Tages Chart
silberwolf
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Das Schlimme an diesen üblen Operationen ist doch der Betrug am Rest der Welt:
----Das Goldfixing in London wurde zur Farce degradiert (gibts das noch?)
----2/3 des Tages erfolgt weltweit einigermaßen fairer Handel
----Dann kommt mit der "Neuen Welt" dieses unsäglich erbärmliche Treiben.Wir kleinen Lichtlein könnens im Einzelnen nicht ändern,nur immer wieder feststellen.
Erst eine Bewußtseinsänderung auf breiter Front wird diese Farce abwürgen.Grüsse
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The Dollar - It's Now or Never...
Clive Maund
Nov 3. 2005
The dollar has had a good year - so far - and many mainstream financial publications have waxed lyrical about the future of the greenback, this despite the fact that it is being diluted at a staggering rate.
Technically, the dollar has now reached a major crossroads - it either breaks higher quickly, or else a serious decline is in prospect.
The 5-year chart for the dollar index shows the preceding bear market from early 2002 in its entirety and the substantial advance this year which broke the index out of the long-term downtrend. Although this advance has succeeded in swinging the moving averages into bullish alignment, it has clearly run into trouble at an important resistance level towards the top of the large trading range that ran from about March to October last year.
Notwithstanding the bullishly aligned moving averages, this is overall a very bearish picture for the dollar. It either breaks higher very soon now or the second Distribution Dome will force it lower at an accelerating rate, especially as once it becomes obvious to the market that the second attempt to take out the key resistance has failed, selling pressure will intensify. The support levels shown can be expected to provide temporary relief on the way down, and the best hope for the dollar, if it goes on to break down from here, as is considered much more likely than an upside breakout, is that it finds support at the first level and goes on to complete a massive Head-and-Shoulders bottom, with the left shoulder being the low in early 2004, the Head being the low late last year and early this year, and the neckline of the potential formation being the key resistance at 90.5 - 92. If this support level fails, it will be very bad news for the dollar.
It hardly needs mentioning that the outlook for gold and silver, if the dollar breaks down from here as expected, is very rosy indeed. Gold is now rising in other currencies, most notably the Euro, but if the dollar gets the rug pulled out from under it, gold can be expected to soar.
Clive Maund
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Alles laeuft mit Stealth, die meisten sehen das nicht was da alles noch auf einen zukommt, AFM.
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Inflation watchers advised to follow the golden rule
· Study finds key economic value in precious metals
· Price trends seen as better indicator than oil and CPI
Ashley Seager
Friday November 4, 2005
The GuardianAlthough gold has not been the anchor of the world's currencies for decades, research out today suggests that the lustrous metal can be of great help to economists as a predictor of inflation and, to investors, as a hedge against it.
The report, carried out by the independent researchers HC Wainwright and Co for the World Gold Council, suggests that gold, along with other precious metals such as silver and platinum, is a better indicator of future inflationary trends than oil, and is way ahead of the traditional measure - consumer price indices
Article continues
Interest in gold and inflation has risen in recent months as inflation has hit its highest level for a decade or so in Britain and the United States, while gold prices - rising steadily for four years - are now close to their highest level for 17 years."When it comes to inflation, Wall Street and the City of London tend to be late seeing it coming," said David Ranson, president and head of research at Wainwright's. :))
"This is because of the widespread obsession with the CPI as the gauge of choice, when it is clear from the research that gold is a more effective measure. The price of gold and other precious metals has been signalling a return to inflation for some time now."The research challenges the age-old claim that oil is a good indicator of inflation since it drives the price of petrol used by motorists and energy used by factories. The report suggests that any link between oil prices and inflation or economic performance over the long term istenuous.
"Far more significant for the future of inflation and the economy as a whole is the price of gold," it says, arguing that a rise in oil prices is essentially deflationary since it makes other things less affordable because it absorbs a larger slice of energy users' income.
While any commodity price can, in theory, be used as an inflation indicator, gold is superior to oil because it is not actually used up and has been a constant store of value over long periods. By contrast, oil is consumed all the time and its price is therefore susceptible to supply disruptions in a way that gold's is not.
Mr Ranson said there had been significant inflationary pressures building in the US since mid-2002 - well before oil prices starting rising significantly but a year after gold prices began their long march higher in the wake of September 11, 2001. Gold was priced in a range of $250-$270 until then, but is now about $461 an ounce.
With the real value of gold roughly constant over time, changes in its price reflect changes of the currency in which it is priced - in this case US dollars - says the research. A rise in gold, rather than reflecting an increase in demand or cut in supply of the metal itself, is a reflection of the debasing of the currency by inflation.
Mr Ranson also suspects that the sudden, fresh rise in the gold price since Hurricane Katrina could be due to the fact that President George W Bush promised to spend $200bn (£113bn) on rebuilding New Orleans. That implies bigger federal budget deficits in future, which will put downward pressure on the dollar and thus upward pressure on inflation. "Mr Bush has thrown caution to the wind in terms of federal spending policy. This is something markets understand very well," he said.
Gold prices can also be a good indicator of bond yields and interest rates. Mr Ranson said: "Because gold moves earlier than official measures of inflation, it works much better than 'Fed Watching'."
The US Federal Reserve has been raising rates steadily since last year and is expected to carry on doing so into 2006.
The research concludes that holding gold is a good idea for investors since it provides an excellent hedge against inflation by often rising faster than it.
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Edel Man,
Was macht der POG und POS zum Abschluss der Woche ?
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