Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    What occurred on Friday was as dramatic a market manipulation as we have ever seen. It defied common sense and cut across both the gold and dollar markets. The dust has cleared from Friday’s market nonsense and what we can now observe is the strongest of suggestions the US is under enormous financial market stress. As a result, they have pulled out all the stops to keep potential chaos from kicking into becoming reality.


    Let us lay out the scene first:


    *President Bush’s popularity poll numbers keep shrinking and are in the high 30’s across the board. Should the US stock and real estate markets be nailed, his numbers will disappear.


    *Unending problems in Iraq, the developing scandal why we went there in the first place, and growing deficit problems are finally seeing the light of day in toto and finally having their effect. The US stock market was propped up by the PPT last Friday and caught fire for an entire week. However, US intermediate/long-term interest rates are on the move higher. Efforts by the Fed and others to keep these rates from rising to problematical levels are failing as the rates of the key 10-year T note and 30-year bond have blown decisively through strong resistance. The move up in both has been orderly. Should they blow out from here, the ensuing higher rates are going to affect both the stock and real estate markets in a meaningful way, which will be anything but constructive.


    The US is desperate to keep the foreigners financing our debt. Without their support, our goose is cooked. There is an important US Treasury debt auction next week. To make sure the foreigners stay in the game, it is imperative they retain their confidence in the US and in our markets … not an easy task with what is going on in Washington. One simplistic way for the US to achieve its short-term goals was to ramp up the dollar and knock gold down. The scenario for the coming Treasury auction was laid out brilliantly by Mike Hartman at http://www.financialsense.com. From Thursday’s MIDAS:


    "Overall I don’t expect to see much from gold and silver over the next week or so until the Treasury auctions are out of the way. I have yet to see any noteworthy price movements during the three days of "quarterly refunding." Keep a close eye on gold to see a re-test of $460. In the past, the Friday and Monday just prior to the auctions have seen the short sellers come into the gold pit with guns blazing! I’m not saying it’s going to happen, just noting patterns from prior auctions…they have a tendency to repeat! It is absolutely imperative for the Treasury to sell all its debt…just watch next week while the markets appear to be in a coma until the debt is sold."

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Aladin ()

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Gelegentlich ist ein Blick darauf interessant.
    Vor allem bei Extremwerten,wie zurzeit.


    Habe vor Tagen über die kurzfristigen Rates gelästert,
    die gegen 0 tendieren,ein markttechnischer Unsinn.


    Bei genauem Hinschauen sieht man die "Aufwärtshaken"
    bei 2 Terminen, erste Anzeichen bevorstehenden Trendwechsels.


    Grüsse

    • Offizieller Beitrag
    Zitat

    Original von Edel Man

    Habe vor Tagen über die kurzfristigen Rates gelästert,
    die gegen 0 tendieren,ein markttechnischer Unsinn.


    "......ein markttechnischer Unsinn" könnte auch ersetzt werden durch
    "......Manipulation"


    Aber sh.Signatur ;)

    Hallo,


    man liest selten so eine klare Positionierung zum Gold ohne Wenn und Aber in den öffentlichen Medien:


    "In den vergangenen Wochen ist der Preis zwar etwas zurückgegangen. "Doch das sind Gewinnmitnahmen", sagt Eberhardt Unger, Volkswirt des unabhängigen Analysehauses Fairesearch. Vor allem Spekulanten machen derzeit Kasse. "Unabhängig davon sind die mittelfristigen Aussichten für den Goldpreis sehr gut", glaubt er jedoch. Er erwartet schon bald neue Höchststände. Auch Martin Siegel, Berater des PEH-Q Goldminenfonds, rechnet mittelfristig mit Kursen von 600 bis 700 Dollar. "Und wenn irgendwann die Goldbestände der Zentralbanken ausverkauft sind, könnte der Kurs locker über 1000 Dollar steigen", prophezeit er.



    Für europäische Anleger ist besonders interessant, daß auch sie neuerdings davon profitieren. Seit dem Beginn der jüngsten Goldpreishausse verlief die Entwicklung stets umgekehrt proportional zum Dollarkurs. Gab die US-Währung nach, stieg der Kurs des Edelmetalls. Da Gold fast ausschließlich in Dollar gehandelt wird, hatten Europas Investoren nichts davon.



    Doch seit einigen Monaten ist dies anders. Obwohl der Dollarkurs weitgehend stabil ist, stieg der Goldpreis weiter. "Immer mehr Marktteilnehmer setzen auf Rohstoffe, um sich damit gegen die Inflationsgefahren zu schützen", erklärt Michael Blumenroth, Edelmetallhändler bei der Deutschen Bank, das Phänomen. Die Teuerungsgefahren erzeugen also den alten Reflex, in Gold zu investieren, auf beiden Seiten des Atlantiks und unabhängig von Devisenkursen.



    Zwar beschwichtigen Notenbanker und Finanzminister noch. Die Teuerungsrate sei nur durch die gestiegenen Energiekosten so hoch. Die "Kerninflationsrate" dagegen, die um diesen Effekt bereinigt ist, sei sehr moderat. "Der Rechentrick mit der Kernrate hat mit der Realität aber nichts zu tun", sagt Volkswirt Unger. Es dauere einfach länger bis die Preissteigerungen von der Ebene der Rohstoffe zu den Produzenten und über Groß- und Einzelhandel bis zum Konsumenten durchdringen. Diese Ansicht scheinen immer mehr Anleger zu teilen.



    Doch auch sonst sprechen die meisten Argumente für einen weiter steigenden Goldpreis. "Das Angebot wird nicht zunehmen", sagt Siegel. In den letzten Jahren seien durch die großen Minenbetreiber keine neuen großen Vorkommen entdeckt worden.



    Gleichzeitig steigt aber die Nachfrage. In vielen asiatischen Ländern ist Gold traditionell eine beliebte Anlageform und mit einer wachsenden Mittelschicht steigt der Bedarf. So legte der Goldabsatz in China nach Angaben des World Gold Council im ersten Halbjahr um über 50 Prozent zu....."


    kompletter Artikel

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Zwischendurch mal ne bessere Nachricht von der Gold"front":
    Hedging reduziert.
    Aber: Barrick immer noch mit riesigem Hedgebook!
    ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::


    (AFX UK Focus) 2005-11-07 02:00 GMT:
    Global gold hedge books fall in Q3 as forward sales plunge, options rise- GFMS
    Article layout: raw


    SYDNEY (AFX) - The level of hedging by global gold producers decreased by a net 0.99 mln ounces in the September quarter, Gold Field Mineral Services analysts said.


    They said a large slump in gold forward sales, falling 1.62 mln ounces in the September quarter, was slightly offset by an increase in gold option instruments of 0.63 mln ounces.


    GFMS senior analyst Bruce Alway said the fall in forward sales in the September quarter was expected, with the major global gold producers delivering into scheduled contracts.


    He said AngloGold Ashanti, Newcrest, Placer Dome and Barrick, who together account for just over 72 pct of total gold producer hedge books, cut back their forward commitments in the September quarter by about 1.1 mln ounces.


    Alway said the increase in net vanilla option positions of gold producers in the September quarter was against the trend over more than 10 consecutive quarters, rising due to a book restructure along with some limited new hedging.


    He said net vanilla options increased ?(by 0.67 mln ounces in the September quarter, resulting from a wider contango - the difference between US interest rates and gold lease rates - and the higher gold price.


    The GFMS survey showed the price used to value the option contracts at the end of September rose to 473.25 usd an ounce from 437.10 an ounce at the end of the June quarter.


    Always said the amount of non-vanilla option instruments, which in nominal terms account for nine pct of the total options position, declined by a modest 35,000 ounces.


    paul.daniel@xfn.com

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Und wird dabei deutlich :


    The SUA says part of its mission is to keep silver prices low :(and keep the metal readily available for users. The association's members include jeweler Tiffany & Co. (TIF), photographic equipment maker Eastman Kodak Co. (EK) and chemical giants Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) and DuPont (DD).


    Silver users would bear the brunt of higher prices, the organization says.


    ETF

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Eine Fülle von Informationen/Hinweisen,und das von Merrill !!
    "Credit excesses out of control" ;)
    **************************************


    Merrill's Rosenberg Says Gold May Be a Good Bet as Growth Slows


    Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co.'s Chief North American Economist 8) David Rosenberg said gold may offer an alternative to investors as U.S. capital markets head for a ``year of heightened volatility.''


    ``In the year of dollar weakness, gold will be a good place to be as it stabilizes your portfolio,'' :] Rosenberg told investors in Singapore today. ``There is a 30 percent chance for a recession. If growth gets weak enough to get the employment up, then it's going to feel like a classic recession.''


    A cooling housing market and regulatory moves to curtail a credit boom may curb growth in consumer spending, leading to slowdown in the U.S. economy, Rosenberg said. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
    ``Credit excesses have gone out of control,'' Rosenberg said. ``We are going to be seeing much different consumers, not just next year, but next four to five years.''
    The U.S. savings rate has shrunk as households are spending their wage-based income on expectations that house prices will continue to increase, he said.


    ``Forty percent of growth in consumer spending in the past year has come from a drawdown in savings rate to negative territory,'' he said. ``If you think that consumer spending is predicated on organic income and employment gains, forget it.''


    Federal Reserve policy makers on Nov. 1 raised the benchmark U.S. interest rates a 12th straight time to head off faster inflation and signaled they aren't finished yet.


    Growth in the U.S. economy has exceeded 3 percent for 10 straight quarters, the longest string since the 13 quarters that ended in March 1986 and the best performance among nations in the Group of Seven industrialized nations, which include Japan, Germany, the U.K., France, Canada and Italy.

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Ein durchaus ernstzunehmender Mann mit seiner Einschätzung zu Gold:


    Will demand to lift gold prices to $500?
    By Jon Nones
    07 Nov 2005 at 09:54 AM


    According to MarketWatch, there are signs that the economy is slowing. Here are some quotes from John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service.
    As the Fed moved for the 12th time to raise the benchmark interest rate last week, "signs that the economy is slowing and inflationary pressures subsiding are non-existent," said Person, adding that the ISM number combined with last week's GDP figures "show underlying strength in the U.S. economy."


    And "with economic data suggesting strength in the economy, especially after the U.S. has endured three natural disasters within 10 weeks -- namely Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma -- I anticipate strong demand for jewelry sales here in the U.S. as well as abroad," he said.


    Overall, the latest employment report shows jobs are increasing and employment conditions are strong, "so consumers should have disposable spending capital, and gold jewelry is a top item for this holiday's shopping season," he said.


    That'll likely support prices through year end, he said, adding that he expects prices for the precious metal to climb to the $497-to-$505 level before the year is up.

    Die Wirtschaft waechst wahrscheinlich weil es viel Arbeit und Material fuer die Hurrican Schaeden gibt. Geld ist jetzt da, just print it ! :D
    Ob die Leute noch so viel Geld fuer Goldschmuck haben weiss ich nicht. Die Prognose das Gold bei 500 $ bis Ende des Jahres ist setzt vorraus das nun bad news kommen sollten was ich nicht glaube. Die luegen und immer was anderes vor und manipulieren die Maerkte so wie sie es brauchen.


    Aber irgendwann kommt dann die Realitaet und der wakeup call. 8o


    XAX

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Aladin ()

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    Das kann man für den privaten Sektor so sehen.Noch drehen Große die Räder.


    Andererseits : für seine Hobbies,Süchte,Neigungen hat der Mensch gerade in Krisen immer Geld übrig gehabt.
    Noch ist es aber lange nicht so weit,daß der "kleine Mann" den Weltmarkt bewegt


    Das kommt in der 3.Stufe,von der wir Jahre entfernt sind mE.


    Grüsse

    Hat jemand eine Ahnung wie der Silberbedarf im letzten Jahr war.
    Auch was produziert wurde, ich hatte mal die daten die beim letzten PC crash sich verabschiedet haben.
    Ich hab da auch eine Frage im Junior thread reingelegt wie es dann ausschauen koennte wenn die alle anfangen zu produzieren.


    Thanx und Gnight


    XAX

    Weiss nicht ob ihr das schon kennt: :D


    Silver shortage causes scare!
    Silver users you best beware!
    One hundred dollars per silver ounce,
    Could be just a little bounce!


    Yes it’s true you work with Feds!
    And you leased from Chinese Reds!
    One hundred dollars per silver ounce,
    Could be just a little bounce!


    They dumped it out of central banks!
    Silver users leasing pranks!
    One hundred dollars per silver ounce,
    Could be just a little bounce!


    They gave us coins of clad so cheap!
    Silver user, chiseling creep!
    One hundred dollars per silver ounce,
    Could be just a little bounce!


    COMEX prices just not real!
    Naked short is how you steal!
    One hundred dollars per silver ounce,
    Could be just a little bounce!


    Trained to live, off miner’s work!
    Silver user, such a jerk!
    One hundred dollars per silver ounce,
    Could be just a little bounce!


    You ran off with silver reserve!
    Silver user, you’ve got your nerve!
    One hundred dollars per silver ounce,
    Could be just a little bounce!


    Silver users whine and squeal!
    Gutless punks with no appeal!
    One hundred dollars per silver ounce,
    Could be just a little bounce!


    Silver users just seeing red!
    Wishing prices would fall down dead!
    One hundred dollars per silver ounce,
    Could be just a little bounce!


    Other users need silver too!
    Not just your conniving crew!
    One hundred dollars per silver ounce,
    Could be just a little bounce!


    Mexico takes the silver away!
    They want real money today!
    One hundred dollars per silver ounce,
    Could be just a little bounce!


    Silver user, climb your tree!
    Silver can’t be had for free!
    One hundred dollars per silver ounce,
    Could be just a little bounce!


    Hoarders holding silver coins!
    It’s a kick into your groins!
    One hundred dollars per silver ounce,
    Could be just a little bounce!


    No silver wings on SUA’s chest!
    They stirred up the hornet’s nest!
    One hundred dollars per silver ounce,
    Could be just a little bounce!


    Cheap silver ain’t cosmic law!
    To SUA we say---ha ha ha!
    One hundred dollars per silver ounce,
    Could be just a little bounce!


    Silver prices to the moon!
    Silver user, cheap buffoon!
    One hundred dollars per silver ounce,
    Could be just a little bounce!


    Der Kampf geht weiter, Helm aufsetzen !

    Immer weiter so, aber wie lange geht das noch ?.


    At this juncture, every central bank in the world is attempting to keep its currency on the "cheap" or competitive side. To do this they must create ever-more quantities of fiat paper. This is basically inflationary. More and more paper is now chasing tangibles. :))
    Here are the latest statistics on the broad money supplies on a year-over-year basis. As you can see the various central banks are busy creating additional oceans of paper.


    Australia plus 9.8%.
    Britain plus 11.2%.
    Canada plus 9.8%.
    Denmark plus 16.3%.
    Sweden plus 5.6%.
    Switzerland plus 6.3%.
    United States plus 6.6%.
    Euro area plus 8.5%.


    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell110805.html

    2 Mal editiert, zuletzt von Aladin ()

    Das einzige was ich soweit finden konnte:


    The statistics show that we have consumed close to 30 billion ounces of silver in the last 60 years, after consuming 10 billion ounces in the 60 years prior to that. Before that, silver was like gold, it was not consumed, except for jewelry, ornaments and monetary purposes. Electronics, computers, CDs, cell phones and photography changed silver’s role. Lasers, solar power, superconductivity and health applications promise to keep changing silver’s role in the future.



    The pace of silver consumption is accelerating, given world population and economic growth. Every new washing machine in India and TV in China guarantees increased silver consumption. After using 30 billion ounces in the last 60 years, present patterns of growth suggest that we will use that same amount in only the next 30 years, double the previous rate of consumption. Over the past 60 years we consumed 10 billion ounces of silver inventories, since mine production wasn’t sufficient to meet demand. This is precisely why silver is more rare than gold – we used up 10 billion ounces of existing silver inventories, in addition to 20 billion ounces of mine production over the past 60 years.



    Here’s the problem. We are still consuming more silver than we mine, but we don’t have 10 billion ounces in inventory anymore to subsidize the shortfall in production. We would be lucky if we have 1 billion ounces left above ground. And that remaining silver is largely in private hands, not bureaucratic hands, and only sharply higher prices will pry it free. In addition, statistics suggest that increased mining production will run into cost restraints and resource limitations. That means continued big and growing demand colliding with inventory and production constraints. That’s a powerful long-term investment formula, if one ever existed. It’s a whole new ball game for silver; a game that’s just beginning.


    To me, it seems simple. We’ve used up almost all the remaining aboveground silver in the world. We’ll seriously deplete what’s remaining in the earth as we attempt to remove more silver in the next 30 years than we’ve removed over the past 60 years. We’re still operating in a deficit after 60 years of continuous deficit. The price of silver is so cheap, and out of kilter, that gold sells for more than 60 times the price of silver, even though there is more than 5 times as much gold than silver. These facts are largely unknown, but about to become known. All investment cycles begin and end. The big money is made by those who know this, and act accordingly. Try and position yourself in conformance with the long-term cycle in silver.


    Es sieht momentan so aus das Demand und Supply fast gleich ist:


    http://www.silverinstitute.org/supply/index.php#demand

    2 Mal editiert, zuletzt von Aladin ()

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Moin Aladin


    Müsste selbst auch suchen,um genauere Zahlen zu finden.
    Die kommen und gehen,nicht abgespeichert.


    Rein verbal: die jahrzentelange Enthortung von Mrd. OZ der USA,
    China und Indien ist beendet, die werden sogar zu Nettoimporteuren.


    Silber erfährt immer neue Anwendungen.


    Also über den Preis von Silber mache ich mir keine Gedanken.
    Muß ja nicht so absurd fantastisch wie bei Hommel ablaufen. :]


    Grüsse

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Aus seinem heutigen Beitrag:
    *********************************
    Here we see a profile of one of the big stories of this century. It's the little-noticed, little-understood bull market in gold. Yet, as I see it, gold is in the early part of the second phase of its bull market. :] This is the phase where the institutions and the more sophisticated public begin to nibble at the item. But as usual, most of the attention is centered on the daily action of gold, the little wiggles, the position of the Commercials, the 50-day moving average, the current sentiment, the talk, the rumors, the endless BS about gold.


    ********************************
    Einfach grandios!!
    Grüsse

    Dollar/Euro heute knapp 1.17
    Was glaubt ihr wie weit geht er noch.


    1.15 ?


    Mahendra liegt richtig, der Tsunami vom Dollar ist da fuer eine gewisse Zeit.


    Gruss


    XAX

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Aladin ()

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Der Russell ist einfach unersetzlich!


    Angesichts solcher Zahlen kann man nur ahnen ,wie unsagbar das Gold als Krisenmetall manipuliert wird.
    Das ganze kurzfristige Gehampele um paar Dollar rauf oder runter ist doch völlig irrelevant dabei.


    Grüsse

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