Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW pulled off one of its patented rallies it has managed to stage since right before the Iraq War started. Down 55 with 45 minutes to go, it roared back to only close down 3 to 10,379. The DOW is never allowed to crater two days in a row for the investing public should never be allowed to think panic. The DOG climbed back too, finished off 5 to 2025.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added $3.25 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements today April 14th 2004, an action that upped the repo pool to $38.28 Billion. The Fed isn't too concerned about yesterday's DOW dip, if they were we'd see the pool jump up much higher. We do see however, that the DOW's 30-day ma is turning definitely flat as it begins to oscillate around the predicted trend line.

Rate talk

The rumor mill buzzes with rate hike talk and this ought to be interpreted as another piece of evidence of gold cartel capitulation. Gibson's paradox stipulates that gold and long term interest rates move together—higher gold, higher interest rates (in that order).

An important clue to rates is the linear 200-day moving average of the DIVG seen at http://www.pbase.com/gmbolser/interventional_analysis

It has beenmoving up since December 2003 and I have interpreted this to mean the Fedhas begun a retreat to permanently higher priced gold. They must therefore follow with higher interest rates in order to thwart an investment community move away from depreciating paper dollars and towards the better appreciating asset-gold.

For the remainder of 2004 the DIVG will appreciate by 13% if a linear extension of today's trend can be believed. At this hour the 30-year yield tracks at 5.2% right on its long term ceiling
http://ichart.yahoo.com/b?s=^TYX&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=m50,m200,s&t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c

So far we are still within the interest rate boundaries of the near past in the ten-year but we are poised to pierce 4.67% and that will be an import event that will confirm what the 200-day DIVG ma has been telling us since at least the end of January 2004---that the end game has begun. Everythingwill change once the rates start firmly up.

Will the Fed attempt to hold gold flat in an heroic defense leading to the complete drainage of all central bank vaults? That question is probably being asked today in the board rooms of the world's central banks. The United Arab Emirates recently capitulated under Fed pressure and drained their vaults. However, the bigger banks might not be so easily swayed. The recent turmoil at the Bundesbank may be outward signs of a gold sales policy war within.

What a magnificent buying opportunity!

Mike

Chuck checks in:

Just briefly:

The continued dumping on the opening of the shares and their weak closes signals to me that we are very near the bottom of the correction again. What we should be focusing on at this point is the relative strength of gold and the shares to the general stock market. Remember that gold runs contrary to the other markets, and that is why it was in a bear market for 20 years.

We are resuming the treacherous decline of the stock market and we're beginning to see some pockets of weakness such as in the real estate stocks for the past 2 weeks. One of these days the market will have a day like this, and fail to rally and the dam will give way. There is a deluge coming to pay for all of the monetary and fiscal foolishness of the past decades. My guess is still that we will have a good taste of it before the summer comes. Chuck

The real story behind yesterday’s surprisingly positive retail sales number:

Here could be another reason for the dollar rally and stock market comeback today:

US: Deficit $299.5b in first half fiscal '04
By Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, 4/14/2004

WASHINGTON -- The government produced a deficit of $299.5 billion in the first half of the 2004 budget year, the Treasury Department reported yesterday.

For the budget year that began Oct. 1, spending totaled $1.1 trillion, while revenues came to $850.4 billion.

The year-to-date deficit showed the government bleeding more red ink than the $253.1 billion shortfall recorded for the corresponding period last year. The latest figures underscore the worsening state of the government's balance sheets.

Compared with the period last year, spending was up 6.6 percent in the first six months of the 2004 budget year. Revenues, meanwhile, were up 3.1 percent from a year ago.

-END-

The Café’s Greg Pickup sends us a quality inflation heads-up:

April 14.

We will start by asking a question. In the year ending Jan 12, 2004 what “commodity” increased the most in percentage terms? Answer: Freight . That is correct. The Baltic freight index increased 531%. As of November the increase was “only” 287%. Freight is not normally the providence of international speculators and hedge funds but is used by trade houses to transport physical commodities.

Freight + 531%
Natural Gas +72%
Cotton +58%
Copper+50%

NASDAQ + 50%
Soybeans + 44%
Gold +33.2%
S & P + 25%

Crude Oil + 25%
CRB Indust.+ 24%
Yen + 14.6%
CRB + 17.5%

Cattle +4.2%
US Bonds +.5%
Sugar - 14.3%
US $ Index –16%

As of April 8 the quotes are below , with chart.

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Hey Bill:

Looks like we finally got our washout that your sources have been talking about. I cannot think of a better buying opportunity and am loading the boat in gold at these levels especially in light of the following headline flashes below from Dow Jones. Gold anywhere near $400 is a sweet gift as far as I am concerned.

DJ. * US Mar Consumer Prices +0.5%; Consensus +0.3%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DJ. * US Mar CPI Energy Prices +1.9%; Food Prices +0.2%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DJ. * US Real Average Weekly Earnings -0.7% In March

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wed Apr 14 08:28:48 2004 EST

Take a look first at the Consumer Price category and compare that to the consensus numbers that most economists and pundits were expecting. If we annualize March's numbers at +0.5% we have consumer prices rising at a rate of SIX PERCENT A YEAR. So much for the deflation argument. This is the result of the endless and by now mind numbing increases in the money supply by the Fed as they work to stave of deflation and debase the dollar in the process.

The next flash contains the soaring energy cost rise of +1.9%. Let's hope that does not continue to translate out to an annual rise in energy costs of 22.8% and that the price of crude and gasoline stabilize or else consumers are in for a very rough time indeed as more and more of their dwindling disposable income is spent paying for fuel and cooling and heating costs.

Now for the reak kicker and this is what terrifies me. Look at the Real Average Weekly Earnings number. It came in a -0.7%. Translation - while prices were soaring on an annualized rate, wage earners saw their real earnings dropping at the same time. In other words, they are bringing home less in real wages while prices simultaneously are risin across the board. And people wonder why their paychecks don't seem to stretch as far as they once did!

Now combine that with yesterday's number about retail sales rising and it does not take much to see that consumers are going further and further into debt in order to continue their current lifestyles. Americans are not saving - they are continuing to spend even when they have real less dollars to do so. Just how in the world is this nation supposed to build lasting and true prosperity on a rotten foundation of debt without savings? where is the capital pool to come from to fund economic growth? Where else but from foreigners.

Finally, below is a table detailing the real earnings data. Notice the final row I higlighted in blue. This one details exactly what is happening to the consumers pricing power as the Fed's dollar abasement continues unabated. Sum this all up and I cannot think of a more compelling reason to own gold. It is the only currency that is going to hold its value in the times ahead of us.
Dan Norcini
dnorcini@earthlink.net

DJ. Table of Data On US Real Earnings From Labor Dept.

DJ. Table of Data On US Real Earnings From Labor Dept.
March February January December
Seasonally Adjusted
Real Earnings -0.7% -0.1% 0.3% -0.8%
Hourly 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% -0.1%
Weekly Hours -0.3% 0.0% 0.6% -0.6%
Weekly Earnings -0.2% 0.2% 0.9% -0.7%
Current Dlrs $523.70 $524.58 $523.56 $519.12
Constant Dlrs* $277.53 $279.48 $279.68 $278.80
*Constant Dollars Adjusted
for Inflation. r = revised

The cabal in action:

Bill and David (Morgan),

After the CPI release this morning I was telling an associate that this explains the timing of the attack of gold and silver. Only comment from my associate was "what is the Government even doing influencing trade in our markets, makes you not even want to play in a rigged game".

In aviation terms, the Government rigging these markets is likened to someone changing the calibration or cutting the wires on the gauges. In Instrument meteorological conditions this can cause spatial disorientation resulting in stall/spins or even controlled flight into terrain. Due to Government rigging of all the gauges investors really can't see where they're headed. Once you go into stall/spin, if you wait to long, you pull the wings off the plane in an attempt to avoid the crash but you crash anyway. With controlled flight into terrain you just crash and didn't see anything coming.

Thank you for all that you do.
Tim.
South Dakota

More on the retail sales number from eagle-eye J Mc:

Bill,

Buried way down in today's front page WSJ article "Retail Sales Data Signal Economy Gains Momentum" is the disclaimer that voids the optimism of the headline. It says, "The retail sales data aren't adjusted for inflation, so price increases account for some of the gain, in particular for building materials." So this much ballyhooed 1.8% sales gain is in the context of practically everything inflating 10 - 50 %. If you sell butter and the price is 50% higher and your sales of butter are only up 1.8% isn't that actually a 48.2% DECLINE in product sold? This explains why they keep talking about a recovery yet the economy belies it. Less widgets sold at inflated prices. In my business we just raised the building material frame packages an average of 32% from 1st quarter to 2nd. I will be bitterly disappointed if sales are only up 1.8%. Just another rigged number from a government that better suits residency in the Kremlin than the White House. All available information contradicts this steep gold/silver selloff. I can almost hear the salivating of the players scooping up the metals at these prices. They won't be here long, IMO.
James McShirley

No surprise here, trouble ahead for housing:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - New mortgage applications fell last week for the fourth straight week driven by a huge drop in refinancing, as mortgage rates rose to their highest levels in three months, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted market index, a measure of weekly mortgage activity, fell for the week ending April 9 by 22.1 percent to 788.6 from the previous week's 1,012.9.

The weekly mortgage gauge fell its lowest level since the week of Jan. 9 when it was at 702.9. Loan demand, especially to refinance, has fallen in response to a sharp increase in mortgage rates in early April. –END-

The commentary from most Café members is right on:

Bill;

Trade and inflation worse than expected - they're trashing metals in Hail Mary style and buying the dollar of course. The stock, housing and bond markets - different story. The only thing missing from this picture is a monkey, an organ grinder and a cotton candy stand. The answer - take delivery of silver (in particular) while you can. Hail Mary's generally happen in the last few plays of the game. When the COMEX fails (and it will) the game is over.
best
Rob

More input that silver is very tight around the world:

Dear Mr. Murphy,

I read with great interest your daily information. I paid special attention the your lines regarding the silver shortage. You might be interested in viewing the link below and discover the UBS do not offer 1 kilo bars either. I recently bought a few of these bars from them and they had a hard time to collect even 6 pieces.
Keep up the good work! Congratulations !
http://www.ubs.com/e/ubs_ch/we…ismatics/numismaticsshop/
bars/silver.html
Luc Lacroix, Geneva

The real silver story:

The technical damage done to silver was huge. Gold dropped about 5% over the past three days, while silver has dropped over 12%. Silver dropped through all support and may weaken below $7 over the next few days. But there's no real silver out there in the real world. There are still two full weeks left in April in order to buy the May contract. The OI in the May contract has dropped about 15 Moz, but is still at 385 Moz. So paper silver is in plentiful supply (as usual) but the real stuff is non-existant. I'm tempted to annoy ScotiaMocotta by going down to buy silver at these contrived paper lows, but they are not worth the effort. I think what these idiots have done is manipulated the spot price down using derivatives, but in doing so merely transferred the OI from weak hands who were forced out by the recent margin increase to strong hands who intend to take delivery of the May contract.

The total OI dropped only 632 contracts (3.15 Moz) yesterday for a drop of $1 in the spot price.

The May OI is still 77321 contracts (386 Moz) The shorts are still trapped. They have a bigger problem now than before. Despite the fact that there is a world shortage of silver, they have maneuvered the price $1 lower but managed to reduce their obligations to deliver by a measly 3 Moz. Now they still have to come up with (assume 10% of the OI want to take delivery) 38 Moz of metal yet the spot price is $1 lower than it was a month ago! These guys may have 10 Moz themselves, but must acquire the rest. That means lower prices won't cut it.

Silver is going to float right back up to where it was, and while that is happening the OI will be increasing again as well. I give it a week and silver will be north of $8 again.

Rhody

Several Café members brought my attention to this very negative and caustic silver article:

Silver? No thanks, we got lots.

by Mark Taylor
April 13, 2004

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2004/0413.html

What is the point of dealing with this clown and what he has to say about "the GATA crowd" and Ted Butler? You know where I stand on silver. One of us is very right and one is very wrong. What grates me is articles such as these only surface on major corrections, not when the market is flying.

Speaking of Ted Butler, his latest can be found at

http://www.investmentrarities.com

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

April 13, 2004

The Relative Value Of Silver

"There is something I must say about today's dramatic price decline. Kodak and the users didn't use less silver than normal. The miners didn't produce more silver than usual. Nothing in the world of real silver changed - just the price. That's because of the paper games on the COMEX. That's expressly against commodity law."

On a cheery note:

Hi Bill,

Cartel's Last Flash

The crooked cartel bankers
Finished their frenzied feeding
The gold and silver bait fish
Have many shares a bleeding

Do not be discouraged
By this desperate metal bash
Like an old burning light bulb
We saw the cartels last big flash

The thousands of letters we sent
Have begun to take their toll
Many factors are in place now
To finally end the cartel's control

The lack of quantity silver
The soaring demand for gold
World violence and too many dollars
Will force the cartel to explode

The waters have quickly changed
To allow some fast bottom fishing
Seeing the crooks go out on stretchers
Will be our rewarding mission

Best, Gold Fish

-END-

So much for the rounded HUI bottom. Throw that one out the window. The HUI bounced off its 200-day moving average early after falling to 207.64, going up nicely on the day. However, it succumbed to its standard late day sell-off, closing at 209.20, down 4.45, but still just above that 200-day moving average. The XAU dropped sank 1.64 to 93.92.

The commentary about the gold and silver markets is becoming very emotional. Opinions are flying all over the place. This is why it is so important to stay grounded by keeping in mind what GATA knows. The gold and silver markets have been rigged for years. This price rigging is in the process of falling apart. As it does, silver is going to soar and gold will follow. Much of the rest of the day-to-day commentary is a lot of noise. Once The Gold Cartel is beaten, the GATA stretcher-bearers will show up; then gold will blow through $430 and soar towards $500.

The gold/silver shares ought to move substantially higher, VERY soon.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

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The King Report

M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
Wednesday April 14, 2004 – Issue 2896

"Independent View of the News"

Though most commentators and pundits attributed Tuesday’s action to fear of rate hikes due to retail sales strength, astute observers and operators were stunned by the inflationary aspects of the retail sales report. Building supply sales accounted for about half of the retail sales gain. As we have been recounting for months, and as the NY Times featured on Sunday, material costs like plywood, lumber, steel, petrochem based materials, cement, etc. have soared in price. This forces price increases in fasteners, fixtures, plumbing accessories, bolts, nails, etc. Here is part of the Commerce Dept release:

"The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $333.0 billion, an increase of 1.8 percent (±1.0%) from the previous month and up 8.2 percent (±1.0%) from March 2003.)…Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were up 20.8 percent (±2.3%) from March 2003 and sales of food services and drinking places were up 11.1 percent (±2.3%) from last year."

General Merchandise Store sales in March are 41.548B vs. Feb’s 41.409B, a +0.3% gain. Non Store Retailers are 16.835B vs. Feb’s 16.936B, a 0.6% DECLINE. Gasoline sales are only +0.8% m/m, +3.9% y/y. http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/fullpub.html Please note the weakness in general merchandise and non-store retailers and the fact that retail sales are not adjusted for inflation …Auto sales jumped 2.1% on heavy incentives…Home improvement and supply sales increased 10.6% m/m.

Building supply stores had their biggest gain ever (data series began in 1992) on soaring material costs. Ex-building supplies, retail sales were +1%. And of course they too are abetted by inflation. Food, which economists call a ‘stable demand’ product, soared 11.1% y/y...Feb inventories jumped 0.7%, the biggest gain in 3 years. The days of just in time inventory, a disinflation gambit, are over. Now, management will try to capture LIFO profits via inventory gains from inflation. It’s "That 70s Show" time.

Tuesday’s theme was the de-leveraging of the immense leveraged proprietary trading universe. That's why everything but the dollar fell sharply. Though commentators are saying the markets fear a Fed tightening, the more appropriate observation is the markets are moving to arrest speculative excesses, with or without the Fed. And the bust is occurring in the most leveraged market, debt.

Most of the known universe is employing record leverage to capture the ‘carry’ in bonds. This behavior has been inculcated for 12 years, the origin being when Easy Al surreptitiously bailed out the money center banks in 1992. That is also the last time Easy Al permitted consumer debt to contract. The markets see and fear inflation, Fed official ignorance or duplicity notwithstanding. The 8 handle decline over 3 weeks in bonds is evidence that Mr. Bond has had it. The trading losses generated by bonds are forcing the leveraged world to cover its other leveraged positions i.e. short $, long commodities.

-END-

darkjedi

Dein Zitat:

Zitat

Es hat Imho keinen Sinn sich gegen den Markt oder Kartell wie auch immer, zu stellen.

Du kannst selbst keinen Sinn darin erkennen sich gegen die Preismanipulation eines Kartells zu stellen?

Ich persönlich erkenne sogar mehrere Gründe!

Der wichtigste davon ist, dass ich einen Markt von Angebot, und Nachfrage bestimmt sehen will, und nicht nur von einigen Leuten, oder Firmen, die es leider bis jetzt fertig gebracht haben, trotz 15 Jahre anhaltendem Produktionsdefizit die Silberpreise zu kontrollieren.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

darkjedi

Also dass Aldi die Milch Deinen Angaben Zufolge unter Einstandspreis verkauf ist m.M.n. den Konkurenten gegenüber vermutlich unlauter Wettbewerb, doch für einen Vergleich mit der Preismanipulation beim Silber ist Dein Beispiel eher wenig aussagekräftig. Aldi bezahlt ja vermutlich den Bauern genauso wie die anderen Markteilnehmer, einen fairen, oder weiss ich was, allenfalls einen vom Staat festgelegten Preis. Selbst wenn Aldi danach die Milch verschenken will, soll sie das meiner Meinung nach tun können, solange sie gegen keine Gesetze verstösst (kenne mich leider mit der deutschen Gesetzgebung rund um die Kuhmilch, und den deutschen Handels und Wettbewerbs Gesetzen nicht aus).

Der Milch Konsument profitiert, und die Bauern erhalten trotzdem den vollen Preis von Aldi bezahlt. Zudem habe ich noch nie was von Shortselling bei Kuhmilch gehört.

Gold und Silber bedeutet für mich Geld, echtes Geld, und kein Zahlungsversprechen das gebrochen werden kann, wie beim "Fiat Money" Papier Geld.

Bei Gold, und Silber wird den Produzenten eben nicht ein marktbestimmter Preis bezahlt, sondern ein manipulierter, künstlich tiefgehaltener Preis. Bei der Kuhmilch ist es in vielen Ländern gerade umgekehrt. Der Milchpreis wird durch den Staat künstlich (subventioniert) oben gehalten.

Ich habe in Gold, und in Silber investiert, um mein Geld langfristig vor Wertverlust zu schützen. Papierwährungen eignen sich wie die Vergangenheit dutzendfach klar bewiesen hat, langfristig überhaupt nicht zu diesem Zweck. Auch ich möchte mit meinem Gold, und Silber Investment nach Möglichkeit Gewinne erziehlen. Seit 1999 habe ich mit Gold, und Silber Anlagen meine Substanz, in Fiat Money gerechnet, stark ausbauen können. Das hat ca. 4 Jahre gedauert, keine 15 Jahre, und kann sich sehen lassen. In nicht allzu ferner Zukunft, schätze ich, dass mir meine Aktien, und meine Silber und Gold Münzen noch sehr viel Ärger ersparen werden, und ich dabei nochmals weit mehr als in den letzten 4 Jahren meine Anlagerendite steigern kann.

Nicht unwesentlich ist, und wird dies den vielen Gold und Silber Bugs zu verdanken sein, die sich eben nicht ausschliesslich nur der Profitsucht verschrieben haben, sondern sich für auch aktiv für das echte, nicht beliebig kopierbares Geld, Gold, und Silber einsetzen, damit den Gold, und Silber produzierenden Länder, meistens drittweltländer, ein fairer Preis bezahlt wird, und eben kein manipulativ künstlich gedrückter Preis.

Es gibt bestimmt noch hunderte von Beispielen wo der Markt nicht nach Angebot und Nachfrage abläuft. In manchen Fällen ist es sogar Sinnvoll, und im Interesse der Menschen, in vielen jedoch nicht.

Ich werde meinen aktiven Einsatz bis auf weiteres jedoch auf Gold, und Silber beschränken. Mein Motivation beschränkt sich übrigens bei weitem nicht nur darauf postings zum Gold und Silber Geschehen zu verfassen.

Mit Ego befriedigen hat das Ganze jedoch gar nichts zu tun. Eher mit Genugtuung, wenn ich sehen kann, wie langsam aber sicher, sich das Blatt für`s Gold und Silber Cabal wendet, und die Arbeit der vielen Bugs langsam aber sicher finanziell belohnt wird.

Sinn darin dies alles zu tun, kann ich entgegen Deiner persönlichen Sicht, sogar sehr viel erkennen.

Gruss

Thaiguru