Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

The Daily Reckoning

Baltimore, Maryland

November 19-20, 2005

by Kate Incontrera

MARKET REVIEW: DREAMING OF A GOLD CHRISTMAS

Good news, goldbugs - your favorite precious metal reached its highest
level in nearly 18 years this past Thursday.

We know that longtime DR sufferers aren't surprised; they've been advised in these pages to drop the dollar and buy gold for years now. After all, gold is the anti-paper, and despite recent dollar strength, investors areincreasingly exploring alternatives to U.S. and European currencies, aswell as stocks and bonds.

"Strength in the dollar is more a reflection of trouble for the euro and
the yen," Addison Wiggin tells us. "Gold is the only investment
alternative not susceptible to what ails the dollar."

And gold has proved to be a better measurement of wealth (and a better way to hold onto that wealth) over paper money time and time again. Bill
Bonner has called gold "nature's money" - and for good reason. You can't
turn on a printing press or create it out of thin air; this naturally
limits the "money supply," generally keeping it in line with the economy
itself

And last Thursday, gold for December delivery rose $7.80, or 1.6 percent,
to $486.90 an ounce, the highest close since January of 1988. Some
analysts say that the gold market may been supported by comments from
Russian and South African central banks, who hinted that they may want to beef up their gold reserves. Other experts contend that strong physical
demand from countries like China and India are driving the rally. And you
can't forget about those who buy gold as a hedge against inflation.

Whatever the reason for this rally, it all looks very good for those smart
investors who hold the yellow metal...and many believe that it'll just
keep getting better from here.

"Gold is going to (hit) $500 by Christmas and everything that happens is a step in that direction," said Peter Hillyard, head of metal sales, Europe,at ANZ Investment Bank.

"The funds want to diversify portfolios and they are buying commodities
because they are seen as being potential for better returns."

Kate Incontrera

The Daily Reckoning

P.S. Gold's jump this past week echoes the prediction Bill and Addison
make in their new book, Empire of Debt. "Gold is what people buy when they
begin to lose confidence in the economy, the government and its money,"
they write. "We expect they will begin to wonder more and more."

For a sneak peek from Empire of Debt, see "The Power of Gold", below...or

The Most Feared Book in Washington
http://www1.youreletters.com/t/189053/1390100/781252/0/

Fekete hat einen guten Bericht bei LMC:

This is not to say that Bernanke's helicopters cannot
frighten the speculators. They certainly can. If and when
they do, speculators will dump bonds, currency, and all.
Mr. Bernanke is confident that he can cure deflation
through hyper-inflation. He cannot. Under hyper-inflation
the currency is losing value faster than can be replaced by printing more of it. That is precisely the difference
between inflation and hyper-inflation. It spells further
decline of demand and vanishing pricing power, that is,
more deflation, not less."

Live mid-market rates as of 2005.11.20 08:01:28 UTC.
1.00 XAU
Gold Ounces = 485.650 USD
United States Dollars
1 XAU = 485.650 USD 1 USD = 0.00205910 XAU

Listen to Lou Paquette

http://www.howestreet.com/goldradio/index.php

Equally impressive last week was the performance of Gold, which soared to its highest level since December 1987 – close to a new 18-year high. In fact, Gold soared upwards in all currencies, and not just in the Dollar, which is most remarkable, and makes one wonder what is really going on. Usually if the Dollar rises, Gold goes down. But the Dollar is also posting new yearly highs, so there is another explanation for this. Think “Ben Bernanke,” the Sagittarian with Sun in exact opposition to Jupiter, and new soon-to-be Federal Reserve Board Chairman, and the perception that his monetary policies will be inflationary. I will cover this matter in great detail in the forthcoming Forecasts for 2006 book, which goes to the printer next week. Sagittarius and Jupiter represent “expansive” dynamics, and Bernanke is on record for speaking out about the evils of deflation, implying that he will do anything to avoid it, including printing more money. And in a related incident, my dear friend and Gold coin dealer Howard Weinberger stated in a letter to his clients that, “The Fed last week announced that they would be ending the regular reporting of M-3, which is the broadest measure of the U.S. money supply. Why would they do this? I expect that the incredible increases in the money supply are going to continue to be so huge so why advertise to everyone how diluted the currency will become. Just take away the ability to measure it.” I will have more to say about Howard’s services in future columns.

Und noch ne weitere Betrachtung von Bill Cara:

Zitat

A funny thing happened on our voyage along the Yellow Brick Road, months ago when I was telling you that gold had stopped tracking the USD, there must have been a policy change in Washington. The authorities must have known that inflation was coming and that interest rates would have to be cranked up as a limiter, but were worried about what that would do to the economy. So they decided to reflate, which is where the Treasury cranks up the printing press.

So while the Americans and the Europeans were fighting over how long the Europeans could hold off their own interest rate hikes, which led to a remarkable burst in the USD price, the Americans were reflating, and so oil and now the metals zoomed in price. Even though each of these asset classes is priced in USD, a temporarily inflated USD price (caused by the European Bank) could not hold down these particular commodity prices. That’s the result of reflation.

So there are two main factors in commodity pricing (apart from forex considerations); one is industrial (economic) demand and the other is investment (speculative) demand. And guess what happened? The Kudlow & Company friends were telling you that there was no inflation, but huge economic demand, which was really piling the manure high, but the speculators were trading off increases in the U.S. M3 with bigger long positions in the commodities.

And you were wondering why oil stocks were not going to the moon when Crude Oil was at $70? And you wanted to know why I sold my XOM at $56.84 on May 28 with crude priced like that? It's almost like I knew that XOM would be trading for the same price six months later.

Well to make a long story short, it’s simply because Metal Man in Zug Switzerland told me on or about May 16 that he was going to make another fortune in metals. I couldn’t resist, so I published two headline articles: “BUY GOLD” AND “BUY OIL” on that day.

That was a Monday, and you were blind sided with a bear trap on commodities set by Metal Man on the previous week.

Everything went perfect. He even had China’s Mr. Joe in on the action. Unfortunately – and this might be a big mistake – he suckered Mr. Joe into selling copper (short) and swinging into gold, platinum and palladium. Now that copper contracts have run from 150 to 200, Mr. Joe is being asked to step onto the world stage and tell us all just what he intends to do about that massive problem.
...

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Gold

Nachtrag:
Ganz oben (zumindest im Moment) auf der gleichen Seite:

Zitat

Tomorrow morning the gold and silver stocks will run to the upside.

Unequivocally.

As I write these words, I am looking passed the monitor on my desk top, out across the shimmering waters of Lake Ontario on a perfect Fall day, and between me and the water less than 100 feet away, a flock of maybe 50 Canadian geese fly by in slow motion, right at eye level, and I feel I can almost reach out and touch them. I marvel at the law of nature, and I am sensitive to it, because like the capital market, and the rest of life, it is all around me.

I sit back in my chair and I ponder the reason why I do this.

You don’t know me, and I don’t know you. So why do I write lines like the first one above?

I know it’s partly because I care about people, and do this as a public service, but that cannot be the only reason. I don’t know why I sat down at 5:00 am this morning and started answering mal, and researching, and writing. After all, this is my day off, and surely I did enough yesterday and the five days before that to deserve time to myself.

I don’t have the full answer, but partly I think it’s because I have so isolated myself from the noise in life that I can see things happening that most others cannot. I looked right into the faces of those geese as they floated by, and I felt a connection to life.

I look at the squiggly lines on a monitor, and I don’t see a stock chart, I see a data series that is connected to life. It is pulsating. Because I am totally color-blind, I am hypersensitive to movement; I see meaning, when others see data.

I see meaning in the actions of others, yet I cannot in my own.

In any event, I see silver moving. I saw it back at the end of June, when I wrote about it.

And back then, on that last weekend in June, I also saw pain and death, which I too described in these pages.
....

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Tomorrow morning the gold and silver stocks will run to the upside.
(Siehe mein letzter Beitrag)

Könnte morgen ein spannender Tag werden

Edel Man, das war keine Vision, auf zwei webseiten wurde diese quote gegeben was ein technischer oder menschlicher Fehler anscheinend war. Wer weiss vielleicht war der Spotprice kurz da und ein dicker fisch hat gross eingekauft.

Gruss

XAX

Hallo,

in Stockhouse Canada habe ich in einem Forum einen Hinweis gefunden, dass J. Turk demnächst (?) die (physische Anlage von Silber in "silvermoney" plant.

Weiß hier jemand mehr über seine Pläne ? Ist dies evtl. ein monatlicher "Sparplan", wo das Geld in Silber angelegt wird ?

Die Realisierung würde auf jeden Fall dem physischen Markt Silber entziehen.

Gruß

Silbertaler

Le Metropole Members, ....Forum Members

No matter what occurs between tonight and tomorrow as far as
the price of silver and gold are concerned, The Gold Cartel,
these big time bad guys, are in big trouble.

GATA knows why, do you? The prices of gold and silver
are going to explode soon. Be there.

No matter what happens between tonite's gold and silver
mini-pop, the title of tomorrow's MIDAS will hold true:

"The Charge Of The GATA Light Brigade"

Harter Schlag für Bill Murphy und sein Verschwörungs-Café: Blanchard muß sich bei Barrick für die Preismanipulationsklage entschuldigen und einen ungenannten, aber angeblich beträchtlichen Schadensersatz leisten. Für Murphy war schon allein die Zulassung der Klage der halbe Beweis für die Richtigkeit der Manipulationsvorwürfe.

Barrick wins apology from Blanchard for allegations of price manipulation

Romina Maurino
Canadian Press

Monday, November 21, 2005

TORONTO (CP) - Barrick Gold Corp. has won an apology from Blanchard & Co. for its allegations of gold price manipulation as all lawsuits against the company were dismissed.

The apology came with the settlement of a libel suit that was filed by Barrick in 2003, a few months after Blanchard and gold seller Herbert Davies took the Toronto-based company to court, accusing it of manipulation of gold prices and violations of U.S. antitrust laws.

Blanchard and Davies both alleged they were injured as a result of reduced interest in gold as an investment and sought damages - as well as an injunction terminating certain trading agreements with J.P. Morgan and other bullion banks.

Barrick said Friday that all claims had been dismissed and it will not make any payments in connection with the antitrust accusations or class actions.

Instead, the settlement handed Barrick an apology and a cash payment of an undisclosed amount.

"We regret having made the statements that gave rise to the libel action filed by Barrick in Canada and any embarrassment those statements may have caused Barrick or its officers or directors," Blanchard said in a statement.

Blanchard and Davies had filed their suit Dec. 18, 2002, in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Louisiana. Barrick filed its counter suit in March 2003 at Ontario's Superior Court.

Blanchard and Davies later amended their complaint to add an allegation of violating the Commodity Exchange Act in February 2005. A trial date had been set for January, in case no agreement was reached.

Barrick could not elaborate on the other terms of the settlement or say how much money it had received. The company would only say the payment was "substantial."

"We're just very pleased that we've been able to settle all the differences that we've had with the complainants over time," said spokesman Vincent Borg.

"All litigation related to this matter in any way, shape, or form is all settled."

The markets had little reaction to the news, with Barrick shares (TSX:ABX) losing 10 cents to close at $31.70 on the Toronto Stock Exchange. On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE:ABX), the shares dropped 10 cents US to $26.80 US.

Analysts said few investors had placed much weight on the lawsuits, which amounted to "more noise than substance."

"Many of us had kind of determined that the whole thing was a bit more contrived than it was substantial," said Barry Allan, an analyst with Research Capital Corp.

"The whole Blanchard action . . . . I thought it was a bit outlandish, and obviously Barrick did too because they filed a libel suit and succeeded. It's just a nice thing that it's gone away."

© The Canadian Press 2005

:(.... Schade, wer aber bei der Mafia ist dem wird durch die Mafia geholfen.

""an apology and a cash payment "" haben die nicht verdient IMO.

Cést la vie

XAX

Zitat

Original von Aladin
:(.... Schade, wer aber bei der Mafia ist dem wird durch die Mafia geholfen.

""an apology and a cash payment "" haben die nicht verdient IMO.

Cést la vie

XAX

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Genau Aladin

Und wie bei den Aktien (gilt so auch für Gold und Silber) manipuliert wird, wird in einem Beitrag aus einem anderen Forum zutreffend beschrieben.

Fazit am Ende des Beitrags:

...
einziges mittel wie erwähnt: schütze deine aktien, indem du einen verkaufsauftrag mit einem hohen verkaufspreis für deine aktie reinstellst, dann sind diese aktien zum beleihen gesperrt.

Vanescent

Nur gemeinsam sind wir stark!
lassen wir die shorties brennen!

War ein guter Abschluss von dem Posting auf W/O.

What a day !

General Motors kuendigt 30.000 Angestellte Weltweit war die Schlagzeile heute..... another brick in the wall !

ENTER THE RECESSION

by The Mogambo Guru

Ben "Big Bonehead" Bernanke, the incoming new chairman of the Federal
Reserve, is on record as being the champion of "inflation-targeting",
which is the new code word for, "I'm going to kill you with inflation
because I don't care about any of you American pigs."

This ridiculous philosophy may not work like he figures, if we can believe
Randy Buss, of Der Invest Informant, who quotes Professor Antony Mueller,
an adjunct scholar of the Ludwig von Mises Institute, as saying, "The size
of the debt level relative to the productive base at the peak of the boom
will make monetary policy ineffective once the contraction phase takes
hold." Well, perhaps that is why the Fed is so desperately trying to keep
this contraction ("deflation") from taking hold in the first place, by
creating inflation, which will kill us just as fast.

Max Fraad Wolff, at Mises.org, has had enough of listening to me run my
loud mouth and not making any sense. He stands up to explain, "Standard
fiscal and monetary policy work to attack inflation by pushing economic
activity toward recession. Likewise, fiscal and monetary policy introduces
inflationary pressure to fight recession." Well, I gotta admit that he is
a lot more succinct in his explanation, but without the use of screaming,
swearing, breaking furniture or even vowing blood oaths of revenge. As
such, it seems to lack that sense of, umm, mortal despair and homicidal
outrage that it really calls for.

So, in my snippy little childish way, I say, "So?" Without missing a beat,
Mr. Wolff, with a momentary flash of exasperation at my abysmal stupidity,
explains, "Stagflationary dynamics occur when a growth recession - or
worse - occurs alongside upward price pressure, inflation. Policy markers
face unique challenges and enhanced prospects of failure in such an
environment. Given the normally poor record of policy makers, this is
scary. As price pressures persist alongside rising trade and federal
spending imbalances into 2006, stagflation lurks. Keep your eyes out for
data that suggests cooling growth and rising prices. When it rains it
pours."

None of this is lost on Jim Puplava, which I can prove by directing your
attention to his essay "The Two Bens." It can be found on his
http://www.financialsense.com site. In it, he contrasts Ben Franklin and Ben
Bernanke, which I am sure, has Mr. Franklin rolling over in his grave at
the comparison. It is sort of like I hate it when my neighbors compare me
to a diseased sewer rat, only not as cuddly. Some things never change, and
you can gather that from his writing. He says, "From the birth of this
nation to the present, the government would from time-to-time resort to
debasement of the currency in time of war or in time of economic duress.
We find it always ends with the same consequences: debasement of the
currency and concomitant inflation. Despite the best efforts of government
alchemists, the result is always the same in the end - inflation. The only
limit to the quantity of money created is the destruction of its value."

To prove the accuracy of his words, Mr. Puplava writes, "Through
September, the PPI was up 6.7% year-over-year, while the CPI was up by
4.7% over the same period. Even worse for Americans, who now import more
of what they consume, import prices are up 9.9% over the last 12 months."
This level of inflation should have the Federal Reserve jumping out of the
windows in shame, or jumping out of the windows to escape the incessant
screaming of The Mogambo about this inflation conflagration - that they
caused - that is destroying our money.

And now, the new report of producer prices showed that prices jumped 0.7%
in October, which is worse than anyone (except you and me) expected. The
so-called "core" inflation (minus the pesky volatile items like food and
energy) was, I guess, relatively tame for finished goods. But intermediate
goods had prices that were up a smoldering 1.2%, and intermediate goods
were smoking red hot, up a full 3% for the month.

And it is even worse than that in actuality, as he suggests when he says,
"Today the true rate of inflation is running well over 7%," which one can
see when calculating the consumer price index, "as it was originally
constructed before the government began to tinker with the index." When
one undertakes this exercise, we realize that the CPI, "closely relates to
what most Americans experience daily in their lives." And I don't know
what you are experiencing in your life, but around here, the bills are
showing at least that much inflation!

Then he unleashes the bombshell: "Deflationists and inflationists do agree
on one thing: the U.S. is headed for another recession. Given the
under-reporting of inflation, which overstates GDP, we may already be
entering one. The only difference between the two camps is how it unfolds.
As the U.S. enters into recession, tax revenues will decline and
government spending will increase as a result of rising entitlements.
Deficits will get bigger and the U.S. will have to borrow and monetize
more of its debt. War, entitlements, and lack of fiscal restraint mean
more debt, more borrowing and debt monetization. Eventually the dollar is
going to collapse through the weight of the twin deficits. Inflation - not
deflation - will be the result."

John Hussman, PhD, of the Hussman Funds, has a slightly different take on
all this. Oh, he agrees with everyone else that I am a big stupid idiot,
but where he takes exception is, "It seems to be taken as an article of
faith that the Fed determines inflation, but in fact inflation is not so
much a monetary phenomenon as a fiscal one. It is essentially a reflection
of unproductive government spending. Moreover, the belief that you should
respond to inflation by tightening monetary policy is in some cases very
dangerous. If you look closely at the data, you'll find that economic
growth and inflation over the same period actually have a negative
correlation." So, as the Federal Reserve starts trying to foment more and
more inflation, they are actually hurting growth? Hahahaha! I was right!
We are freaking doomed!

So, what does one do? With the agility of a lithe jungle cat, I instantly
leap to my Stinky Mogambo Feet (SMF) and exclaim, "Buy gold!" And if you
think gold is a great investment and that you ought to be out buying some
more gold right now instead of sitting there reading the stupid Mogambo
Guru while saying hurtful things like, "This guy's an idiot!" then Bud
Conrad had an interesting article on the DailyReckoning.com site,
entitled, "Measuring Gold's Link to Inflation." He notes, "PPI and gold
move together. You can also see that the trend is currently in place for
both higher inflation and higher gold prices."

Although the PPI has been going up, he cautions, "Of course, forecasting
PPI inflation is no easy matter. But the chart does tell us emphatically
that when we see growing forces for inflation - rapid expansion in the
money supply engineered by the Federal Reserve, artificially low interest
rates, growing government deficits, unsustainable trade imbalances and
currency competition - we should expect rising gold prices."

And since we are speaking of commodities, the "commodities expert" at the
DailyReckoning.com site, Kevin Kerr, says, "So while bonds and once
coveted shares sink, commodity prices continue to explode with growth.
Many analysts predict they will continue to rise, because of growth in
demand and dwindling supplies." And not only that, but all the inputs into
growing or mining commodities (energy, tools, materials, wages,
governmental fees, taxes, etc) are all rising, too! The Computer-Like Mind
Of The Mogambo (CLMOTM) instantaneously concludes that (to use the precise
economic terminology) there is no freaking way in hell that commodity
prices cannot go up.

Regards,

The Mogambo Guru