Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

und der dollar ungebremst wie phoenix aus der asche über die 90 und jetzt auch neuer höchststand markiert

und gold hat keine lust mehr

Gold geht aus dreieck HOCH obwohl der USD HOCH zum neuen Höchststand ist!!!!

USD

leider kann man hier nicht auf beitragsnummern verweisen, daher das längere zitat aus einem beitrag von goldbugs500. Ich möchte zu gern wissen, was sich diese schreiberlinge bei solchen texten denken, wahrscheinlich nix:

"Nicht nur Angebot und Nachfrage bestimmen den Ölpreis. Eine Rolle spielen auch Spekulanten wie etwa Hedge Fonds. Seit ein paar Monaten sehe man am Ölmarkt zudem neue Mitspieler, sagt Goldstein: reiche Privatpersonen, die als Investoren aktiv sind. Diese Spekulanten hätten den Ölpreis um mehrere Dollar in die Höhe getrieben."

Warum sollte den ein sog. spekulant in die rohstoffmärkte einsteigen, um auf steigende kurse zu spekulieren, wenn es gegen supply und demand ginge?
Und ist ein long call auf irgendwas z.B. keine Nachfrage?
nachfrage scheint sich für diese heinis nur im shortselling zu offenbaren....

Das ist doch gerade der witz an diesen spekulationen, dass sie mit dem vorherrschenden trend gehen. Und bei öl sprechen doch ganz fundamentale fakten (ich sag nur peak oil) für eine langfristige aufwärtsbewegung,- genauso we bei gold und den anderen edelmetallen die grundlegende ökonomische lage mit der agonie der US-Währung.

tsts & gruss

-nemo-

P.S.

kann mir eine(r) der geschätzten KollegInnen noch mal erläutern, warum soja traditionell als indikatior herhält, auch bei PMs?
Ich habe da mal irgendwas bei R. Russel gelesen, finde es aber nicht wieder

Heutige "Supernachricht" aus den "Wunderstaaten":

General Motors mit "sehr guten" Quartalsergebnissen,
auch bei Ford wird mit einem pos. Geschäftsverlauf gerechnet.

Dazu fällt einem aber auch gar nichts mehr ein!??!!

Macht euch mal zu einem Ford-Händler auf und fragt nach seinem "Geschäftsverlauf"!!!!!!!
Die bekommen ihre"Kisten" doch nur mit riesigem Rabatt vom Hof (wenn überhaupt mal ein Kunde auftauchen sollte)

Für mich alles Lug und Trug!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Kursziel €/USD in 1 Monat 1,29
Kursziel USD/YEN in 1 Monat 1,02 ,
Silber hoffentlich bald wieder Richtung 8,00

so und nun noch einen schönen Abend!!!

alles nur sonntagsgrillen ohne steaks

Tuesday, April 20, 2004, 11:37:00 AM EST

Morning Gold Commentary

Author: Jim Sinclair

Gold sales by the French and Swiss National Banks represent a singular most BULLISH event. In the 1970 gold bull market, every ounce offered for sale at the time was purchased. In this latest case, the buyers will be Islamic and Asian and the sales will memorialize the shift of economic influence away from the dollar and the euro into gold.

These kinds of sales allow singular buyers of huge amounts of gold to enter the market and/or expand their positions at singular prices. As such, these offerings invite bullish interest rather than dissuade it. It can be said that the central bank selling of the 1970's made the bull market possible in terms of the huge price advance it had off the base. That is fact not speculation.

There is no question in my mind that inflation is awake and growing. It is becoming more and more evident in daily life. Also, there is no question that the dollar will remain weak on balance because no policy changes are on the horizon to reduce the triple deficits of the USA. That being said, the US dollar will go lower on balance and will not cease its decline until policies emerge under new managers to combat these deficits.

The combination of inflation and a weak dollar is the formula that will push gold to $480 and in time to $529 and beyond. So the action of the French and Swiss central banks demonstrates a recognition of the above and is simply an act of total desperation to support their friends at COT who are doomed to severe loses.

COT will turn bullish just as they did in 1979 by purchasing a central bank offering to long side spread hedge their short positions. Yet the COT figures will never tell you this because they are structured to be used by COT to their advantage.

The end result of both the French and Swiss Central bank selling will be to shift the timing of the break above $405.50, $419.70, $430.30 and beyond $480 by 5 trading days. Rather than launching this week, it will happen during the first week of May.

For you speculators out there, it now means that emphasis should be put on the August $430 calls because the June calls, which mature in late May, will now be squeakers to get in the money.

sinclair und sein bullenhorn...
... Hoffe das niemand die Juni OS hält...

A Thought for today...
by Jim Sinclair

Whoever had the misfortune to hold investment money in gold and silver could not be more happy that the last week finally got an end. Indeed, what a week it was!

Silver sank at one point more than $1.5 lower in just two days, something so absolutely amazing that has never happened before, except in the post-Hunts era. The action in gold was not much different, except for the magnitude.

This carnage in the PM arena was preceded and accompanied by several articles and comments from people who were (and are, I suppose) among the strongest supporters of the precious metals’ merits. As such, their latest words, as always, had an enormous impact towards the investors in this category. And these words this time urged caution, with various degrees of authoritativeness.

Dismissing the minor degrees, which could be synthesized with “nothing just goes up, and in 1975-76 gold had a 45% correction,” I wish to focus on the remarks from Richard Russell on inflation/deflation and silver. His comments are the following:

First of all, some clarifications: it’s not possible to get a deflationary environment living in a world completely plunged in a fiat-money regime.

I think that inflation and deflation are the most abused words in the economic camp, with a lot of people who use them in an improper way, creating so much confusion.

What is inflation? Inflation is an increase in the supply of money released in the system. Period!

And deflation is the contrary, that is, a decrease in the supply of money infused in the system.

From this, I’d be daring to draw the following corollary: in a fiat-money regime deflation is something that cannot exist! At least in real life. And in fact, that’s never happened in such a regime, and never will.

Many refer to Japan to argue the contrary, but again it’s just a confusion of terms and concepts. In Japan we have witnessed a collapse in the price of assets, and a minor retreat in the consumer and producer price. But the release of money in the system has been relentless, and that is inflation!

There were two things a little strange in such a context: a substantial firm yen and the interest rate decreasing. But this can be explained with the fact that Japan had no foreign debt, its citizens had a huge pool of savings and its trade balance showed a chronic surplus, all the things that the US today can’t boast of, and that’s the reason why the outcome will probably be different under this aspect.

So I believe what Mr. Russell really meant with his expression “deflationary environment” was probably this: an environment where the price of financial and real assets goes down dramatically, an environment where the economy recedes and where the untenable debt level is like a stone tied to the feet of society.

But even in such an environment, that would not be deflationary in a proper sense, because the Fed will keep on doing the only thing it knows and for which it was created: to pump more money and credit in the system. Will the silver be a poor choice of investment, an asset to worry about if you hold it? I don’t think so!

Even if people don’t realize silver is money, that the only real money is gold, and in fact historically the most circulated money of all mankind, I would consider it the safest investment to hold, also in the following scenario.

This scenario would be characterized by a desperate and growing need of cash (legal tender) for people and corporations to meet their obligations, so that they’d get rid of all other assets to obtain it, with a dramatic effect on the price of those assets. Mr. Russell talks about something similar with his remark about debt as a “synthetic short position against the dollar.” Everybody will dump stocks, bonds and real estate, and everything under the pressure of the enormous debt. This theory surely has sense, but will it affect the precious metals? Will the people sell even gold and silver to get an ever more scarce legal tender? Maybe they would, but how much gold and silver do American people have now as an asset? The answer is very, very, very few! Very, very, very little gold, and maybe even less silver. The percentage of those metals in the total of their assets at this moment is absolutely negligible, so we can reasonable conclude that the effect of their hunger for legal tender can’t be significant for precious metals.

Things could maybe be different for gold and silver stocks. They are first common stocks, and in a general demise of the stock markets they could certainly suffer. But I’d conclude that finally the public will come to realize why they should buy them: because of their assets! The rule in this camp is a universal one: do your own due diligence, examine the goodness of their reserves and resources and projects, and the competence and trustworthiness of the management, so to avoid the garbage that abounds here as everywhere, the “hot-stories” full of nothing.

Even less significant, I think, is the value of US dollar on the Forex. The foreigner has no obligations denominated in USD; they do have a lot of rights denominated in USD. To talk about an appreciation of the US dollar, therefore, is to go a little astray; the US dollar may appreciate in relation to stocks, bonds, houses, et cetera, but I don’t see how that “synthetic short position” could make a case for its appreciation against foreign currencies.

In such a scenario, Mr. Russell warns us that silver would not be perceived as a precious metal, as money, but rather as an industrial metal. And sure, in an economic recession any commodity would suffer, at least according to the common economic thinking. But I confess I’m not so comfortable with this conclusion. In general, I would strongly argue that the monetary affaire should not be eliminated when coming to determine what could be a fair price for the commodities. What do I mean? I mean this:

U.S. Debt – All households, governments, business
1980 $ 4 trillion
2002 $31 trillion

Economic expansion of 80’s and 90’s questionable
Dow + 1,000% Debt + 700%
Energy Consumption (barrels of oil consumed) only +34% in 20 years

U.S. money supply:
1787 – 1970 2 centuries $600 billion
1971 – 2003 32 years $6 trillion

Globally, money is being printed at alarming rates. (In last 3 years: Japan +50% (M1); U.S. +25% (M2))

These are just a few quotes to realize the monetary orgy that has happened in the world in the last few decades. I could go on, but I hope I was able to make my point. If someone wants some really strong emotions about this, he has just to check the archive of Doug Noland on http://www.prudentbear.com. If you are easily affected, avoid it!

At this point, I urge everybody to confront the price of gold and silver; after that is done, I think I can save further words.

In the case of silver, that view is even more flawed, as I see it. First, if commodities’ prices go up and down just according to economic expansion or recession, could someone please explain to me why the silver price has been flat, at best, in the last two decades, a period of time where a powerful economic boom took place?

Anyway, even leaving this simple question apart, the major flaw in applying that view in the case of silver, even considering it just an industrial metal, is that it fails completely to consider the paper manipulation going on in the Comex, the supply/demand equation with a productive structural deficit lasting a decade and half, and known inventories above the ground approaching zero. I will not dwell on this, because these things have been exposed and examined much better than I could by Ted Butler, and you have just to go on his website to know the details. I’m still waiting to find someone or something contradicting seriously the results of Mr. Butler's research.

Maybe in the dreams of the Silver Users Association!

So what’s happened the last week in gold and silver markets? Nothing special indeed. Just the usual flood of paper gold and paper silver sold on the markets to scare away the public and the brainless technical funds; just the usual avalanche of paper gold and paper silver hurled in the market by the usual subjects to manipulate it, gold and silver which do not exist, which they do not possess, and which, in the case of silver, the world will not produce in a whole year; just the usual killing of the commodity law with the speculators setting the price, with the paper setting the price for the physical. In a word: just the usual Fraud, exposed in all its glory, shameless and unpunished, under the pleased and benevolent sight of the CFTC and the Comex. Nothing special indeed.

Just the usual ambush! And every time it happens, we get of course “experts” and “economists” ready to rationalize the irrational. This time the gag was centered on the last CPI release, which showed a monthly increase of 0.5%. You would expect that such an increase would boost the precious metals’ price, wouldn’t you? But alas, you are not an “expert”, neither an “economist.” Because if you were, you’d realize that such increase means that maybe the Fed could be less available to keep the interest rates to the emergency level where they are now, and that would kill tangibles and would make the US dollar a “must own.”

With an incommensurable effort to stay serious, I am ready to concede that the Fed will raise the rates a quarter, half, or even a full point in the coming months. I’m not so sure, but I will concede it. Will that mean a reversal in US dollar fortune, and a shock for gold and silver? If you think so, you could go towards a lot of surprises in the future.

The Fed should increase the rates to 6% just to match the increase in the CPI (CPI is then a joke in itself; I consider it just to show how much I am temperate), 6% just to get zero real return on money. And a zero real return on money is still not a credible challenger for gold and silver. Give me a break here, please.

The truth is that any increase in interest rates made just to catch up with the increase in producer or consumer prices will not really harm gold or silver. As Jim Sinclair points out, that would require a substantial change in the spending habit of the government, and a serious effort of monetary policy, to effectively address and reverse, the monstrous deficits which now affect the US dollar system. Do you see something similar in the near or even intermediate future? If you do, your sight is much, much better than mine!

Therefore, the usual subjects at the Comex can continue to deceive themselves thinking that the fractional reserve way-of-life can be effective even in the gold and silver realm, but the time will come when they will be forced to wake up, realizing that it’s impossible to inflate the gold and silver supply with the simple pressure on a computer keyboard. To achieve that, a lot of money is needed, a lot of time, a lot of hard work and know-how, and sometimes even human lives are required, all along the production chain. And the people, the general public will realize that too. That will be a very interesting time.

I don’t know if in the last week we saw the last gasp of those usual subjects trying to cap gold, and I don’t know if we now have the very last possibility to get silver at a price so cheap. I just know that all the known above ground silver inventories gone almost gone, and that even less gold is available to continue the fiction. My only humble conclusion is that in our future ever increasing amounts of legal tender (gold and silver) will be required to get some weight of real, honest money, to get some real wealth on which you can rely without depending on the willingness and trustworthiness of anybody.

© 2004 Castrese Tipaldi

Contact Info
Castrese Tipaldi
Riga, Latvia

Quelle: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2004/0420.html

B-Trend hat bei seiner Ankunft in diesem Forum hier schön rübergebracht, was ich seit einer Woche versuche aufzuzeigen:
Daß wir auf des Messers Schneide gerade Kasatschock tanzen ..
geht ein Schritt daneben, geht´s arg in die Hose : - ((

Aus:
Russell On Stocks & Gold
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/russell041904.html

How about gold and silver? Gold is cash, but over the last few days gold is being sold as a commodity. This is stupid, but it's happening. I never argue with the markets, even when I believe they're being irrational and emotional.
Silver may be a different story. Silver is a chameleon. In an inflation, silver becomes a "precious metal," and a monetary metal, and silver goes up with inflation. But in a deflationary situation silver is viewed as an industrial metal. In a deflationary environment, silver is not, as in the case of gold, viewed as money. If we're going into a deflationary economic collapse, holding gold doesn't worry me. But holding silver would worry me.

Question –
Russell, assuming your scenario, your predictions, come true, what do we do?

Reply –
I wish I had the perfect answer. But I don't. My instinct tells me at this stage of the game, be in dollars and gold coins. Why gold coins? Because only gold coins are "bankrupt proof." Why dollars? Because at this time, the trend is up for the dollar. Remember, the greatest debt edifice in history has, so far, been "held up" by manipulated low interest rates. And now that's beginning to change.
And there is that little-understood thesis that I mentioned at the start of this letter. Debt is a "synthetic short position" against the dollar. You need dollars to pay off debt. As things stand, everybody's got debt, and nobody's got liquidity, which in the US is dollars. If a real squeeze on debt materializes, we could see a panic for dollars. The first broad wave of bear market deflation will see a panic for dollars. The second broad wave of the bear market could see a collapse of paper money and a panic for real money - gold.

Richard Russell
Editor-in-chief - DOW THEORY LETTERS
http://www.dowtheoryletters.com/dtlol.nsf
April 19, 2004

Über die allseits geübte Informationspolitik der Medien kolpoltiert
Kenneth J. Gerbino
in seinem Interview
“GERBINO ON GOLD”
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/gerbino041904.html

mit
The GoldEditor.com
20 April 2004

wie folgt:
The recent Argentina crisis was promoted to everyone as a debt crisis when in actual fact it was a currency crisis…a printing press crisis. None of the major newspapers in our country called it like it really was. They either didn't understand it or didn't want to rock the boat.
Someone needs to get an editorial board meeting with the NY Times and get them to understand just two things…printing paper money is bogus…and a gold standard is a lot simpler and easier than people think. It's like a ruler…a standard of measurement…12 inches to the foot..every day…every year….it never changes. The gold standard is also simple, it's a standard of value for a medium of exchange…money…and the standard shouldn't change either. If the NY Times "gets it", then the world changes.

Aus demselben Interview die folgende Feststellung zu Deflation und Inflation:

„ The whole deflation argument was started, as it always has been throughout history, by those institutions that want to print more money to bail out various big and powerful institutions that are failing. To justify inflating, they scare people about deflation…a slick strategy that still hoodwinks the non-financial establishment. Printing money depreciates the currency and redistributes wealth from the lower and middle class earners of a society to the big, the bad and the ugly. Anyone interested in reading more about this can go to my website at http://www.kengerbino.com and read my commentaries.“

Das passt wie die Faust auf´s Auge in die aktuelle Landschaft,
Gestriger Meldung über die reichsten der Reichen in England
kann entnommen werden, dass ein Russe mit 8 Mrd. die Rangfolge anführt, und es kann die Erkenntnis gemacht werden, dass in den letzten 2 Jahren das Gesamtvermögen dieser elitären Gesellschaft sich um 20 % erhöhte, wobei, im gleichen Zeitraum die „Niederen Schichten“ den Gürtel um zwei-bis drei Loch enger zu schnallen hatten …

Ergo:
Die Reichen werden immer reicher,
die Armen immer ärmer!

Das gibt mit der Zeit reichlich Stoff für Unruhen!
Soziale Missstände sind Grundlage für das wachsende Sicherheitsbedürfnis der in den niederen Schichten dahinkrebsenden Masse!

den Chart von Comdirekt kann ich immer noch nicht hier reinstellen,
aber die Bestätigung meiner die letzte Woche geäußerten Befürchtung nun hier in prosa:

20.04.04 22:00 Uhr

Euro / USD Spot
1,1859

-1,22 % [-0,0147]

d.h., die 1.19 sind definitiv unterschritten,
wenn die 1.18 nicht halten, ist der Weg frei bis 1.15 !

Magor
$US bleibt unter 1,19, immerhin stieg er ein wenig.
und das weil, wie greenie meint, das robuste amerikanische bankenystem die usa so gut mit liquidität versorgen kann, dass deflation keine gefahr mehr sei.
ergo, zinsen dürfen wieder steigen. Was das für die letzte säule der amerik. binnenkonjunktur, die aus hypotheken-refinanzierung gewonnene privatnachfrage bedeutet (stichwort immoblase) kann sich jeder ausmalen.

Wie es heute in der ftd hiess, so sieht ein nachhaltiger aufschwung aus

doomed to bust
-nemo-

GOLD IST AM ENDE????

Willkomme im Abwärtstrend.

LANG LEBE DER SCHEISS D O L A R??