Uranaktien: Minen, Explorer, Produzenten, Anwender

Odin

Hast eine Vorliebe für kleine Explorer.!?
Denke da an Bannermann.
Stehen beide nicht in der Minenübersicht von Goldseiten.de.
Mir auch nicht bekannt.

Vielleicht weiß jemand Näheres.

Zu Deiner Frage:Sowas hab ich früher oder später erwartet.
Deshalb habe ich gestern den interessanten Beitrag von
Doug Casey : "What´s The Uranium Worth"
reingestellt.
Der gibt Hinweise,mit eigener schneller Kalkulation Werte abzuschätzen.

Grüsse

Moin, Odin

Deine Mitteilung finde ich herzerfrischend,soweit sie ins allgemeine geht.
Mir fallen, obwohl noch nicht so lange im Forum, die immer häufiger auftretenden
"Promotion´s"sprich Werbung für diverse Dienstleister auf.
Eigentlich schade, dafür war dieses Forum bestimmt nicht gedacht.

Aber der Herausgeber wird nun mal irgendwie finanziert;
es muß jeder selbst wissen,
wie und wo er investiert oder spekuliert.

Zu Australien:war früher sehr investiert,mit einigen Aufs, auch Abs aber alles Goldminen.
Da liegt auch der Schwerpunkt meiner Erfahrungen,auch Silberminen,bevorzugt Amerika/Kanada.

Zu IMA/AUS : will und kann zu den Pressemitteilungen nichts sagen,
immerhin haben die wohl vernünftige Uranerze effektiv.
Der Wert ist so markteng, daß eine Beurteilung kaum möglich ist.
Wenn die letzten Ergebnisse gut wären, hätte der Kurs reagieren müssen

Aber er schleicht seit Monaten um sich rum,heute sogar -7,5%!.
Du bist doch hoch im Gewinn.
Ich würde ihn eher realisieren.

Grüsse

Moin,Odin

War ja meine persönliche Meinung.
Es stimmt schon, daß manche Werte einfach so dahindämmern ohne Grund.
JBM: traurig,trotz Kenntnis der Qualität hab ich den Einstieg glatt verschlafen,
ähnlich SMY.
Die konsolidieren beide gerade iÜ.

Viel Erfolg mit Deinen "Zwergen"!

Grüsse

@All

Stelle diesen sehr lesenswerten Artikel aus einem anderen Thread hier hinein.
Den haben wir hier, aber in Englisch.Der hier ist in Deutsch verständlicher.

Ergänzt zudem mit einigen interessanten Unternehmen.
...................................................................

Phil O’Neill vom Casey Energy Speculator veröffentlichte diese Woche einen interessanten Artikel über Uran. Wir möchten Ihnen das Interessanteste daraus nicht vorenthalten, da Uranaktien zur Zeit brandheiß sind. Man muss allerdings vorsichtig sein und nur Uranfirmen auswählen, die über beträchtliche Ressourcen verfügen. Seit Sommer 2003 vollführte der Uransektor einen wilden Ritt. Der Preis für angereichertes Uran explodierte förmlich und führte zur Gründung von weit über 100 neuen Uranfirmen. Dies ist eine verblüffende Zahl, aber was noch viel beeindruckender – und besorgniserregender- ist, ist die Behauptung der neuen Unternehmen, mit ihren zahlreichen Explorationsrechten über mehr als eine Milliarde Pfund Uran zu verfügen.

Dies hört sich nach einer Menge Uran an. Tatsächlich ist Uran das vierthäufigste chemische Element in der Erdkruste. Es ist überall –auch in Ihrem Garten. Warum also sprechen Mineralexperten von einer Uranknappheit?

Der Knackpunkt ist, dass von der einen Milliarde Pfund an U3O8 welche die Explorationsunternehmen für sich in Anspruch nehmen, nur ein kleiner Bruchteil jemals gefördert werden wird. Dafür gibt es viele Gründe, wie z.B. Beschränkungen durch die Politik und den Umweltschutz.

Aber der wichtigste Grund dürfte mit Abstand der Reinheitsgrad sein. Die große Frage ist, ob die Konzentration des Metalls im Gestein so groß ist, dass die erzielbaren Preise über den Förderkosten liegen. Bei der richtigen Konzentration stellen die meisten anderen Explorationshindernisse meist keine große Schwierigkeit mehr dar. Falls im umgekehrten Fall jedoch der Reinheitsgrad zu niedrig ist, oder das Uran in zu hartem Gestein gebunden ist, so liegen die Chancen dafür, dass diese Ressourcen jemals das Tageslicht erblicken nahe Null.

Viele Uranunternehmen gehen davon aus, dass die meisten Investoren dies nicht wissen. Deshalb verbringen sie die meiste Zeit damit, sich mit der Größe ihrer Ressourcen zu brüsten, anstatt über den Grad der Konzentration zu diskutieren. Eine schnelle Rechnung, unter Verwendung des aktuellen Uranpreises von 30,20 US$ pro Pfund ermöglicht den Vergleich mit der Konzentration von Goldvorkommen, der den meisten (Rohstoff)Investoren geläufig sein dürfte. Hier zeigt sich die Wirtschaftlichkeit eines Uranvorkommens:

- 0,03% U3O8 = 20 US$/Tonne Gestein (entspricht 0,045 Unzen Gold/Tonne Gestein)

- 0,3% U3O8 = 200 US$/Tonne Gestein (entspricht 0,45 Unzen Gold/Tonne Gestein)

- 3% U3O8 = 2.000 US$/Tonne Gestein (entspricht 4,5 Unzen Gold/Tonne Gestein)

- 30% U3O8 = 20.000 US$/Tonne Gestein (entspricht 45 Unzen Gold/Tonne Gestein)

Wie gerade erwähnt, ist die Dezimalstelle des Konzentrationsgrades entscheidend für die langfristige Überlebensfähigkeit eines jungen Uranexplorationsunternehmens... Und von dieser Überlebensfähigkeit hängt natürlich auf mittlere bis lange Sicht das Investoreninteresse und somit der Aktienkurs ab. Ein Unternehmen kann über die größten Uranvorkommen der Welt verfügen, wenn die Hauptvorkommen nicht förderbar sind, dann ist das Investment in diese Aktien ein Spiel mit dem Feuer. Nach einem anfänglichen Hype werden die Aktien vermutlich langsam aber stetig fallen, bis das Unternehmen pleite ist.

Die Moral von der Geschichte ist einfach: Da der Bullenmarkt beim Uran in die nächste Phase treten dürfte, sollte man nun nicht mehr nur auf die Quantität der Uranvorkommen, sondern vielmehr auf die Qualität der Ressourcen achten. Dies haben vor allem institutionelle Anleger in den vergangenen zwei Jahren gelernt. Man wird also in Zukunft nicht nur fragen „Wie groß sind ihre Uranvorkommen?“ sondern auch „wie gut sind diese Ressourcen?“. Falls die Antwort darauf ist, dass der Konzentrationsgrad niedrig ist und die Vorkommen darüber hinaus tief unter der Erde in hartem Gestein liegen, dann sollte man schleunigst von einem Investment Abstand nehmen.

Interessante junge Uranunternehmen: Western Prospector (Canada: WNP) und JNR Resources (Canada: JNN). WNP, zum Beispiel bohrt gerade im sog. Saddle Hills Uranium Basin in der Mongolei, die als sehr explorationsfreundlich gilt. Man verfügt dort über Uranerzkonzentrationen von ca. 1%. JNR besitzt einige sehr attraktive Explorationsrechte im Athabasca Basin, inclusive Moore Lake und der Partner IUC ist dort bereits hart am arbeiten.

Hier noch einige Uranaktien mit etwas größerer Marktkapitalisierung und geringerem Risiko:

- Cameco (NYSE: CCJ)
- Exelon (NYSE: EXC)
- USEC (NYSE: USU)
- International Uranium (Toronto: IUC.TO)
- Denison Mines (Toronto: DEN.TO)
- Aflease Gold and Uranium
.................................................................................

Grüsse

Jürgen, et All

Dank für die Blumen, nicht mein Verdienst allein.

Nun,ist öfter angeschnitten:
Uran läuft in der 2. großen Phase mE.
Wenn man die größeren Werte,eben IUC zB, anguckt,wird einem schon warm ums Herz.

Vielleicht ist i.A.einiges vorweggenommen.
Aber das haben fast alle schon vor 1 Jahr gesagt,als die zum Bruchteil zu kaufen waren.
Nach Rücksetzern laufen die weiter IMO.

Zumal die Energiekrise deutich auf uns alle zurollt.!

Gucke auch den einen oder anderen Junior an, bei dem die Fundamentals stimmen,zB. WML.

Grüsse

Und was für Skeptiker

"Der Hund wedelt mit dem Schwanz"

Hoffentlich auch mal in deutscher Fassung.
Van Eden zeigt auch die Risiken dieses Sektors auf.

Grüsse
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Uranium: a tale of tails
September 02, 2005

In the uranium market the tails wag the dog. If you don’t understand tails assays you will have a tough time understanding the uranium price. I used to be extremely bullish on uranium, believing that the current primary supply deficit, in conjunction with rising demand as new nuclear reactors come online will lead to much higher uranium prices. But after I gained a better understanding of how uranium is processed and how those processes impact the uranium price, I have become much less sanguine about the prospect of a further, near-term increase in the uranium price.

The bullish case for uranium stems from the fact that the world consumes in the order of 180 million pounds of uranium (U3O8 ) per year while mines supply only about half of that. The balance comes from secondary supplies such as utility stockpiles, the blending down of highly enriched weapons grade uranium and reprocessing of spent fuels and tails. Military and civilian inventories are by far the largest source of secondary uranium supply.

Because uranium consumption is so much greater than mine production, and because inventories are finite, it can be argued that the uranium price has to increase until mine production more closely matches demand. I agree, which is why I own uranium companies and am interested in the uranium sector, but that is a long-term view. Markets seldom move up (or down) in a straight line. The question is whether the uranium price will continue its rise from here or whether we could be due for a correction.

Uranium bulls argue that the squeeze has only just begun because the market is already tight (as shown by the increase in price) and, depending on who you believe, that there could be as many as three new reactors built every year for the next twenty years. Therefore, the demand is going to increase.

There are about thirty new reactors under construction in twelve different countries at the moment with announced plans for 15 to 20 more. Current estimates of supply and demand show that there is already a shortage of uranium to meet the increasing demand.

In anticipation of a supply shortage investment funds have been buying physical uranium with the intent of hoarding it and selling it later at a profit. The recent increase in the uranium spot price from $22 a pound to $29 a pound can be attributed to purchases by a single investment company in Canada called Uranium Participation Company (UPC).

In light of such bullish fundamentals it is easy to see why some investors are optimistic about the uranium price. I was very optimistic too, until I started understanding uranium tails.

There are three natural isotopes of uranium: U(234), U(235) and U(238 ). The natural abundance of U(234) is so small that we can ignore it. For our purposes natural uranium contains 99.29% U(238 ) and 0.71% U(235). Both uranium isotopes decay very slowly by emitting an alpha particle; however, if U(235) captures a neutron it rapidly splits in two, releasing a large amount of energy and more neutrons. This is called fission and it is the process that generates energy for nuclear power plants.

With the exception of CANDU reactors used in Canada and the smallish pressurized heavy water cooled reactors (PHWR) used in India, most nuclear reactors in the rest of the world are light water reactors (LWRs). LWRs cannot operate with natural uranium because the abundance of U(235) is too low. The natural uranium therefore has to be enriched in U(235) so that the “fuel” contains between 3% and 5% U(235) and enrichment is the next key to understanding the uranium price.

Enrichment services are sold in separative work units, or SWUs, and now you have to pay attention.

When you create uranium fuel enriched in U(235) you generate uranium waste that is depleted in U(235). This depleted uranium is called the tails. The further you drive the enrichment process -- in other words, the more SWUs you use -- the less U(235) is left in the tails. The amount of U(235) left in the tails is called the tails assay.

As you can imagine, there is an optimal amount of enrichment a utility fuel buyer should use depending on the price of SWUs, and an optimal amount of uranium he should use depending on the price of uranium. If the price of uranium is low then a nuclear fuel buyer will typically use less SWUs and more uranium to make his fuel. But when the price of uranium is high, as it is now relative to two years ago, he will use less uranium and more SWUs to make fuel. How much SWUs he uses is specified by the tails assays, in other words he tells the enrichment company by how much to deplete the tails in U(235). If he specifies a high tails assay (lots of U(235) left in the tails) he uses more uranium and less SWUs. If he specifies a low tails assay (very little U(235) left in the tails) he uses less uranium and more SWUs. The "optimal tails assay" is that which gives the lowest overall, combined, cost for the uranium and SWUs in his finished fuel.

There is another intermediate process that we do not need to concern ourselves with right now called conversion. Conversion is necessary before we can enrich the uranium but all we need to know is that the price of conversion is about $11.50 per kilogram of uranium.

SWUs cost about $113 right now and so here is what you need to understand.

In the past, because the uranium price was much lower than it is today, analysts constructed uranium supply and demand curves based on a tails assay of about 0.33%. That is a relatively high tails assay, meaning there is a lot of U(235) left in the tails. Assuming a conversion price of $12 a kilogram and a SWU price of $110 (essentially current prices) a uranium price of $25 per pound would imply an optimal tails assay of 0.27%. At a uranium price of $30 a pound (the current price) the optimal tails assay would be 0.25%.

Decreasing the tails assay from 0.33% to 0.25% implies a 15% decline in the demand for uranium (U3O8 ).

Right now, most analysts are still looking at supply and demand curves based on tails assays of 0.33%. At some point those demand curves will have to be updated for lower tails assays and when we drop demand by 15% the uranium market is no longer in deficit. Sure, primary supply is still less than demand but instead of a crunch developing in the near term, it is delayed by up to seven years.

Now the question becomes, what will investment funds such as UPC do when the uranium they bought does not appreciate for five to seven years? Will they be patient and hold onto it, or will they sell it? If they sell it, the uranium spot price could easily collapse since it’s a thin market.

The other thing you have to realize is that the uranium price will not continue to rise and rise and rise. The higher the uranium price gets the lower the tails assays become and the less uranium is required to make fuel.

Since 2001 the price of uranium has increased by over 300% (from $7 a pound to $30 a pound) but the price of SWUs has hardly budged. That means we do not have an enrichment capacity constraint in the uranium market yet and until we do you should expect lower tails assays in response to higher uranium prices.

I don’t pretend to know how high the price of uranium will go, or when it will correct, or even if it will correct. What I do know is that there is systemic risk in the uranium market that very few people seem to understand. When you invest without understanding your market you are taking more risk than what is necessary, or prudent.

I will be in Las Vegas for the Gold and Precious Metals Investment Conference next week, so there will be no commentary next Friday. I hope to see you there.

Paul van Eeden
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

goldbaum

Hab Deine Anmerkung mal frei "umgesetzt":

Siehste es,was strahlt, ist eben doch nicht alles Edel.

Grüsse

goldbaum

Ist schon klar,daß es auch hier grössere Risiken gibt.
Und daß auch besonders andere Metalle "strahlen". :))

Grüsse

THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS

Nuclear is in!
Capacity can be added and priced competitively

Posted online: Saturday, September 10, 2005 at 0000 hours IST

The atomic energy department’s proposal to set up around 3,400 mw of new generation capacity is an incremental move at a time when we need large initiatives in the nuclear domain. At present, nuclear power is a mere 2.5% of overall installed power generation capacity. But stepping on the nuclear pedal requires more than simply placing a few projects on the table from time to time.

Advertisement

So, how do we accelerate nuclear capacity addition at competitive pri-ces? For a start, place bulk orders as against project-specific orders, as is the current practice. This will not only reduce procurement cycles, but also pare capital costs. Real gains can be extracted by reducing the project construction period, where we have fared dismally. Globally, it is around four years and is dropping. The gains can be huge, since nuclear plants envisage high capital costs and reducing the construction time will pare interest cost and consequently the rates. Public-private partnerships can help, as these would incorporate best-in-class project management skills.

Competitiveness of nuclear power is definitely on the ascend with rising coal and gas prices. Recent disclosures by a US utility shows that nuclear power becomes cheaper than coal within a few years of operation. However, notwithstanding the favourable economics and advances in safety technology, nuclear power is fraught with risks. The best way to ensure a check on risks is to list nuclear companies on the stock exchange, as is common in Europe. Resource constraints can be overcome by divesting minority stakes in the existing capacity. And, the lure to invest in existing plants is greater than in the case of coal or gas for nuclear plants live longer, twice longer than coal plants.

There is, however, a caveat. What if uranium reserves become scarce or if the inflamed fuel prices spread to uranium, a fuel we import? We, therefore, need to lock into long-term contracts at fixed prices in the global uranium market and quickly commercialise fast-breeder reactors that operate on thorium, a substance found abundantly in the country.

China to Increase Nuclear Power Generating Capacity

Text of report in English by official Chinese news agency Xinhua (New China News Agency)

Beijing, 13 September: China plans to increase its installed capacity of nuclear power to 40m kW by the year 2020, accounting for 4 per cent of the country's total installed capacity at that time, a senior government official said here Tuesday [13 September].

China's current installed nuclear power capacity takes up less than 2 per cent of the total installed power generation capacity, compared with the world average of 17 per cent, said Zhang Guobao, deputy director of the State Development and Reform Commission.

"It seems insignificant to expand the share to 4 per cent, but it means a fast growth rate and needs tremendous efforts if we want to reach the goal," Zhang said at a press conference hosted by the Information Office of the State Council, the country's cabinet.

China now has 11 nuclear power generating units with a combined installed capacity of 8.7m kW.

The nine nuclear generation units in operation include five in Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant in east China's Zhejiang Province and four in Daya Bay and Ling Ao Nuclear Power Plant in the southern province of Guangdong.

The other two units are under construction in Tianwan Nuclear Power Plant of Jiangsu Province, east China.

The total installed power generation capacity of China is expected to exceed 500m kW this year as new units with a combined capacity of more than 65m kW will be put into operation, Zhang said.

Some of the country's coastal regions have been experiencing power shortage in the past three years though monthly power supply has been growing at a two-digit rate for nearly 40 months in a row.

China's gross domestic product grew by 9.5 per cent while power supply increased by the 15.3 per cent last year. In the first half of this year, power supply increased by 13.2 per cent year-on-year.

Source: BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific

# Wed Sep 14, 2005
Wealth Minerals Provides Information on Prospects in Three More Provinces, NW Argentina
Vancouver, British Columbia. Wealth Minerals Ltd. (the "Company" or "Wealth") - (TSX Venture Exchange: WML, OTCBB: WMLLF, Frankfurt: EJZ), is pleased to release additional descriptions of properties located in the three provinces of Catamarca, La Rioja and San Juan acquired through the purchase of Madero Minerals S.A. (news release dated July 12, 2005). There are a total of five properties in the three provinces that are part of a larger package of highly prospective concessions located in northwest Argentina. Each property in the three provinces has known uranium occurrences.

Background data on the two most advanced properties, the Fiambala Property in Catamarca Province and the Los Colorados Property in La Rioja Province, is highly encouraging.

The Fiambala Property covers 1000 Ha and is located 10 Km SE of the town of Fiambala. Strategically located, Fiambala surrounds part of a CNEA (Atomic Energy Commission of Argentina) property known as Las Termas. The Las Termas mineralized zone measures roughly 2400 M long (NE -- SW) by about 400 M wide and consists of quartz veins, stockworks and disseminations carrying pitchblende, pyrite and fluorite in a host rock sequence consisting of Precambrian metasedimentary rocks intruded by a granite stock. The mineralization is considered to be related to late stage mineralizing fluids emanating from the granite body.

The Los Colorados Property covers 10,000 Ha and is located in south central La Rioja Province about 65 Km South of La Rioja City. Included on the Los Colorados Property is a formerly producing open pit uranium mine. Extensively explored and drilled, the mine was in operation between 1992 -- 1996 producing 55,000 Kg of uranium concentrates which was sold to CNEA. This is a roll front type, sediment hosted occurrence similar to those found on the Colorado Plateau district of Utah / Colorado, U.S.A.

Uranium ("U3O8") is currently trading at $30.20 / lb. In a recent report on Uranium, Canadian Brokerage firm Canaccord Capital Corporation is forecasting price of US$ 31.50 / lb. in 2006 and US$35.00/ lb. in 2007. In keeping up with expanding demand for electricity, the Chinese government is expected to announce an $8 Billion nuclear reactor order and is estimated to be spending nearly $50 Billion on nuclear energy to double output by 2020 according to Kang Rixin, president of China National Nuclear Corp. That would add 30 new nuclear power plants.

Based on a projected, modest 1% annual growth rate, world uranium requirements are estimated to grow from 61 500 t U in 1997 to 75 000 t U in 2020. In 1996, production met about 60% of world requirements, with most of the balance coming from inventory. In 2005, the estimated production is about 52,500 t U, about 44% higher than the 1996 level. To produce this amount, the production capability has to increase between 22% and 26% from the existing level of 43,000 t U. Under this projection, only seven years remain to plan, license, construct and bring uranium projects into production. Additional capacity will be required to produce about 61,500 t U/year by 2020, as well as to replace capacity that closes as resources are depleted (http://www.iaea.org).

Wealth Minerals Ltd. is a mineral exploration company with 13.0 million shares outstanding, approximately Cdn$3.0 million in treasury and listings on the TSX Venture Exchange, OTCBB and Frankfurt Exchanges.

On Behalf of the Board of Directors of
WEALTH MINERALS LTD.

"Jerry Pogue"
Director