Mining in Südamerika - noch ein goldener Boden ?

In die selbe Kerbe:
Hommel von heute:
silverstockreport.com/email/Timeliness.html

On May 2, twenty days ago, I sent out a warning on Bolivia's confiscation, and gave warnings on 4 silver companies in Bolivia.
http://www.silverstockreport.c…l/Silver_ETF_Bolivia.html

Today, twenty days later, Marketwatch covered the same issues, and gave warnings on the same 4 silver companies in Bolivia.
http://tinyurl.com/oozw4

SIL was about $18/share, and now: $14/share.
APE.V was about $1.20/share, and now: $.80/share.
CDE was about $6.20/share, and now: $4.70/share.
PAAS was about $23/share, and now: $19/share.

Timeliness: it would have paid to have known, and acted, sooner.

Bemerkung: APE hat ja ein abkommen geschlossen.
Wär ein Schmuckstück.
Wenn Bolivien behindert wird als producer, wird der Silberpreis Flügel bekommen. Sozusagen statt Red Bull: Silver Bull

Grüße
Tschonko

Interessanter Artikel: Mining in Peru:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/lee/may242006.html

Man sollte den ganzen artikel lesen.
Auch viele Bilderle, ganz bunt

Mich interessiert´s vor allem wegen Fortuna. 4. Juni

Ein Auszug:

The current political situation:

On April 9th an election was held in Peru. No candidate received more than 50% of the vote and a run-off vote will occur in May or early June. Ollanta Humala, a former army officer and leader of the nationalist party, will face Alan Garcia in the run-off.

Polls have suggested that when the run-off vote occurs, Garcia will win. Many of the people that supported Lourdes Flores, a right-wing candidate that placed 3rd in the April 9th vote, will place their support behind Garcia in the run-off vote. Although Flores’ supporters have little love for Garcia, he is seen as the lesser of two evils when compared with Humala. In addition, the majority of the people that voted for the many splinter parties in the April 9th election will most likely place their support behind Garcia.
Alan Garcia is a well known political figure in Peru. In 1985, at the age of 36, he became the youngest President of Peru. His term lasted until 1990 and was marred by hyperinflation, social turmoil, human rights violations, increasing violence, power blackouts in Lima, and international financial isolation. Throughout his term the inflation rate rose from 87.7% in 1985 to astounding 7,649% in 1990. When he left office, the government was drained of its income sources and foreign reserves. This left the next government, lead by Alberto Fujimori, no choice but to seek the economic support of the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and the international financial community.

In spite of his early political troubles, Garcia remains a popular public figure in Peru. He is known for his charisma, charm and oratory skills and has been referred to as “Latin America’s best orator with a power to convice.” Many of Garcia’s supporters aknowledge that he made mistakes during his previous presidential term, but argue that he has valuable experience and solid new policies. They believe that he has matured and that he deserves a second chance. Garcia has also gained the support of younger voters who did not experience the disastrous effects of his previous presidency.

Garcia is a populist with a political outlook that steers a course between the extremes of raw capitalism and extreme nationalism. He is a moderate leftist that is not hostile to Washington. He has promised to reduce telephone and electricity rates, provide loans to farmers, maintain macroeconomic stability, promote workers rights, leavy a windfall profit tax on mining companies, and to oppose the ratification of the free trade agreement with the United States until a full public debate has occurred. He has also claimed that he is the only candidate that is prepared to represent the poor without a takeover of private property. Whereas Humala has gained the support of those in rural areas, and Flores gained the support of those in urban areas, Garcia’s middle-left policies have allowed him to gain the support of a diverse voter base.

The other candidate, Ollanta Humala, is a retired Peruvian Lieutenant Colonel. During his military career, Humala was involved in the two major Peruvian conflicts of the past 20 years: the battle against the terrorist organization the Shining Path and the 1995 Cenepa War with Ecuador.

In 2005, Humala became the leader of the Peruvian Nationalist Party (PNP). For the current election campaign he is running under the Union for Peru (UPP) ticket, with the support of his own PNP party.

Humala has considerable support from the Peruvian populace outside of Lima. In particular he has a stronghold in Peru’s second-largest city, Arequipa. He has maintained a strong nationalist, left wing stance that is popular with those that have remained impoverished and disenfranchised while the Peruvian economy has expanded over the last decade. Humala’s supporters are fed up with recent political corruption and believe that Humala is “not of the corrupt bunch.” Humala has also gained the support of those who believe he is a fearless warrior that has the ability to combat crime, discipline foreign corporations, and redress grievances against neighboring countries. Humala has stated his intentions to legalize the production of coca, renegotiate contracts with foreign mineral and hydrocarbon companies, end military co-operation with America, and void the recently negotiated free trade agreement with the United States until a referendum on the issue is conducted. He has also promised to improve health services, spend $3 billion on education, invest $1.5 billion in agriculture, and embrace economic regionalism.

Nonetheless, in meetings with business groups Humala has promised to respect private property, battle drug trafficking, and push for equitable trade pacts with the U.S and Europe.

Many people in the resource investment community have warned of dire consequences for mining companies if Humala wins the run-off in May. Humala has promised to create a nationalist economic policy, impose more taxes on mining operations, and assume state control over “strategic sectors.” Humala, however, has not indicated exactly what sectors he means or how this is to be accomplished.

With mining accounting for more than half of Peru’s export revenue and 13% of the government’s tax base it has become an easy target for politicians that want to feed off the discontent of impoverished Peruvians. Throughout the election Humala has been strongly advocating economic nationalization in order to gain the support of the impoverished and disenfranchised. If elected, it is almost certain that his policies will be considerably tamer than what many people believe are his intensions now.

Humala may be spouting strong leftist discourse, but he is not going to return the economy to a situation like that of the 1980s. At most we can expect that his government would increase taxes or impose royalties on the mining industry. This would not have a drastic impact on the industry as Peru already imposes one of the lowest tax rates in Latin America – taxes paid in Peru represent 12.5 per cent of GNP, while other governments in the region demand, on average, 18 per cent of GNP. Although the potential election of Humala may spook the financial markets in the short term, in the long term his impact on the mining sector will be minimal.

Major mining companies with operations in Peru remain optimistic about the current political situation. Pete Faur, a spokesman for Phelps Dodge, is optimistic that the company would be able to work with whichever candidate wins. He was quoted as saying “we’ve always been able to find the common ground in the past.” Even in the midst of political uncertainty the company is considering increasing its holdings in Peru through the purchase of BHP Billiton’s Tinaya mine.

Raul Jacob, head of investor relations at Southern Copper, has remained confident that Garcia will defeat Humala in the run-off vote. Jacob’s said, “we’re watching the situation but, at present, we are not too worried.”

Ultimately, mining in Peru will remain strong whomever is elected in the May run-off vote on June 4. In the worst case scenario, Humala will be elected, the financial markets may be spooked in the short term, and in the long term mining companies will be forced to pay higher taxes. Mining companies in Peru, which are currently under taxed according to Latin American standards and making boat loads of profits from increasing commodity prices will not find the increased taxes to be overly constraining. Calm will eventually return after the new administration takes office. Peru will continue to enjoy the abundance that has been provided by its mineral wealth.

Opportunities for Investment in Peru:

Currently the stocks of mining companies that operate in Peru are trading at a discount to those of other regions. Much of this discount can be explained by investor uncertainty about the country’s political climate. We believe that after the June election, much of the uncertainty will be removed and alongside buoyant metal prices companies operating in Peru should reward their investors through share price appreciation

I like Peru. It’s a friendly country with a GDP per capita that is 1/10th of Canada’s and a lot of room for growth. With metal exports driving Peru’s ballooning annual trade surplus (likely to top $5 billion in 2006 which would be outstanding for a $70 billion economy), I see Peru as a country that is moving forward. While I am not an expert in local politics, I think eventually the surplus wealth from mineral exports will benefit the local communities through infrastructure development such as housing, transportation, and communications. Ultimately, only time will answer the question, but I am in the optimistic camp.

Eins sollte man bei vorigem Artikel nicht vergessen:
1. Es hat ihn wieder mal nicht angezeigt.

2. Dies

Disclosure: Acero-Martin Exploration Inc, by paying for my trip to Peru, sponsored this report. I own shares of the company. A detailed write up on the company can be found at http://www.maucapital.com/asd.pdf

@eldo,
genau und mit dem gurkt er dann in den Anden.

Eldo beim Meditieren:
Wo war der fehler?

Scheiß dir was! Fehler macht jeder.
Als ich mal ziemlich viele gemacht hatte, machte ich bewusst weitere.
Und siehe da, es wurde wieder gut.

Also: Eldo beim Meditieren

Miners Forced to Play Politics

http://www.thestreet.com/_yaho…cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Daraus:
The latest poll showed Garcia clearly in the lead at 56% compared with Humala's 44%, Reuters reported on Wednesday. Then again, Garcia, although he is not for nationalizations, backs higher taxes on oil and mining profits

Humala wird ja mehr gefürchtet, obwohl er im Vergleich zu Chavez od. Morales als gemäßigt gilt.

"The greater concern is potential spillover to Peru, which is a major producer of gold," writes Citigroup analyst John Hill

Na hoffentlich nicht, aber es würde den Preis ziemlich anheizen.

T.

In einer Woche ist die wahl.
Hier noch ein Bericht in Deutsch, wo auch auf die kandidaten eingegangen wird und welche Chancen sie haben.

http://www.espace.ch/artikel_217337.html