Wie geht es auf dem Goldmarkt weiter

Zitat

Hast wahrscheinlich Zinssenkung mit Zinserhoehung verwechselt.

glaube nicht, daß ich das hab' (oder liege ich hier falsch ?():
Zinssenkung=schlecht für T-Notes & Bonds = gut für Gold = Abverkauf des USD = gut für Gold = Abflug des USDs = gut für Gold
Zinserhöhung=gut für die T-Note-Zinsgeier X(, aber gaaaanz schlecht für Housing und überhaupt für die Wirtschaft .

Ich bin auch sehr gespannt was nächste Woche passiert...

Ich verfolge den EUR/USD /bzw. DM/EUR) seit 1990. Er hat sich nie an irgendwelche Aussagen über Kaufkraftparitäten, Zinssätze oder Wirtschaftsdaten gehalten, sondern einfach immer in Zyklen bewegt. Die jetzige Bewegung paßt vollkommen in den Zyklus, sie war längst überfällig.

Einzig auffällig ist, daß der letzte Aufwärtsschub des USD zu kurz war. Anfang 2005 bis Ende 2005. Die "normale" Zeit beträgt 2-3 Jahre.
Und daß die Seitwärtsbewegung diesmal sehr lang gedauert hat, dementsprechend müßte der Ausbruch um so heftiger sein (charttechnik orientierte Anleger !!)

Die Zentralbanken haben immer versucht gegen den Trend zu arbeiten, waren aber nie erfolgreich. Aber immerhin verdienen sie dabei normalerweise eine Stange Geld....

Zitat

Original von nodollar

glaube nicht, daß ich das hab' (oder liege ich hier falsch ?():
Zinssenkung=schlecht für T-Notes & Bonds = gut für Gold = Abverkauf des USD = gut für Gold = Abflug des USDs = gut für Gold
Zinserhöhung=gut für die T-Note-Zinsgeier X(, aber gaaaanz schlecht für Housing und überhaupt für die Wirtschaft .

nodollar

Deine Wortwahl mit "fliegen lassen" war mißverständlich. Denn gemeint war ja das Gegenteil - eine Dollarabwertung via Zinssenkung zulassen inkl. der dann von dir geschilderten Konsequenzen. Ein Sinkflug also bestenfalls.

Rising interest rates - would hammer consumer spending and push the U.S. economy to the edge of recession.

Zitat von Ben Bernanke ? :

Make no mistake about it, a recession is where we are headed.

We admit our role in fueling these bubbles by holding interest rates too low too long. Rather that attempt to cover up past mistakes our new policy at the Fed is honesty, and honestly we really do not know what to do. When we do decide what to do, we will tip off the banks first (just as we always have) because our biggest fear of all is a collapse of the banking system.

Unfortunately we can’t start cutting interest rates just yet because we are also frightened by the massive speculation in the financial markets with stock buybacks, mergers, leveraged buyouts, and trillions of dollars in derivatives floating around some of which we do not even know who the ultimate guarantor is.

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Hmmm, da werden noch einige Blasen platzen, so oder so, IMO
Irgendwann sind sie Schachmatt aber wann das genau ist weiss ich nicht was die Trick.
Eine Rezession und Hyper Inflation ist auf dem Weg diese wird sichtbar in 2007.
Die ganzen Vorhersagen das Gold auf 1650 steigt sind nur moeglich wenn diese Situation eintritt, dann kostet der Sprit auch 3 Euro oder mehr.

Und weil ich so ein Schwarzseher bin glaube ich wenn die Amis zu viele Arbeitslose haben das sie einen Weltkrieg anzetteln um aus der Misere rauszukommen und die Leute weiter mit gedruckten Geld beschaeftigt im Namen der Freiheit und Demokratie.

Das kann nach Astrologischen Vorhersagen schon in 2010 beginnen.
Oilkrieg und Rohstoffkrieg die jeder benoetigt und sichern will.

Bei 2012 ist der USD ...Schutt und Asche und ein neues Waehrungssystem muss gemacht werden.

Ein Gold Dollar ??

History repeats itself, why not again ?

Fasten your Goldbelts... Gold is King !!

Gruesse

Eldo

Das Colonium aus dem EVU Imperium Putin/Schröder

wird Schule machen.

KKW´s und Lukoils oder Siemense gibt es überall.

Darauf sollten wir achten

Gruss

Gogh

Eldorado als Dollar Bulle!

Mal nachrechnen:
Derzeit Benzinpreis 1.20 Euro.

Ohne Mehrwertsteuer 1.03, ohne Mineralölsteuer 38 cent. ca. 7 cent Raffinerie/Vertrieb usw., macht dann 31 cent für den Rohölgehalt.

Bei 3 Euro liegt der Nettopreis bei (nun 19% Mehrwertsteuer) 2.52 Euro. Ohne Steuern 1.87, ohne Raffinerie- und Vertriebskosten 1.80, das entspricht einem Ölpreis von Euro 275/barrel.

Wenn nun der Goldpreis auf $1650 steigt, sollte Öl wenn es in gleichem Maß mitsteigt, bei $160 pro barrel liegen.

Der implizite Euro-/US$ Kurs liegt bei dir also bei 0.58 statt derzeit 1.33, der US$ legt also um 130% zu

Gruß
S.

Mag sein, daß der Dollar in EUR irgendwann 100 Prozent zulegt. In Gold niemals mehr, das wären Goldkurse von 320 Dollar die Unze. Der Zug ist definitiv abgefahren (meine Meinung).

Floaten China und Japan ihre Währungen, dann muss die Euro-Zone nachziehen. Ansonsten gehen hier bereits die Lichter aus, lange bevor das in Fernost der Fall ist (Verlust der industriellen Basis auch in Euroland).

Geld kann man entwerten. Eine indistrielle Basis nur mit Geld wiederherstellen - das geht nicht.

Ich glaube kaum, daß Cihna, Japan und andere asiatische Staaten auch noch den Konsum der Euro-Zone auf Pump finanzieren.

Ein solcher, großer Schmarotzer weltweit dürfte denen mehr als "ausreichen".

Saccard, :D... ich brauche keinen Taschenrechner weil man manche Sachen nicht berechen kann.

Der USD ist unberechenbar ebenso der Zeitpunkt wann er genau unter die ( 80) USD/IDX geht.

Bei Panikverkaufen faellt er dann auf die 60 Marke.

Men ,... its Dollywood & Disneyland :D,... das PPT & Friends werden die Show irgendwie weiter machen bis sie vorbei ist.

Du tippst halt immer Deutschland mit rein was mich nicht interessiert.

Man sollte eigentlich nur von Unzen Gold reden, als Goldbug -- im Vergleich zum Fiatgeld oder Konfetti wenn du willst.

Das Oil in dem Fiasko bis 160 USD und mehr geht ist leicht moeglich.

Dreistellig wird der, da bin ich mir sicher innerhalb zwei Jahren.

Das der USD an Wert gewinnt irgendwo ist moeglich, wie waere es im Vergleich mit einer afrikanischen Waehrung.

Gute Nacht, schlaf gut ! 8)..jeder rechnet und glaubt halt an was anderes.

XEX

Ps: HW kann nun die Schmelzkosten von dem Buddha ausrechnen.

Natürlich interessiert Deutschland, der Motor der Eurozone. Ohne Deutschland bräche ganz Europa zusammen. Und der Euro ist wiederum für 60% des USD Index verantwortlich.

USD-Index entspricht ungefähr einem Eurokurs von 1.74.. mal sehen, ich glaube nicht daran.

Gruß
S.

Ich bin so froh das Deutschland den Retter spielen will oder muss.

Naehmilich DU !!

Dann mit 67 kannst dann in die Rente, vielleicht bald bis 70 Jahre. :D.

Mein Schwager der fuer 45 Jahre bei Siemens treu zu Arbeit ging hat BenQ nun in die Arbeitlosigkeit geschickt, wer braucht schon jemand mit 57 Jahren in D ?

Da gibt es 60% vom Netto ohne eine Abfindung fuer ein Jahr, dann muss er warten bis...?? er was bekommt und die Inflation hat mittlerweile alles weggefressen.

Ja, so hat jeder seine Probleme mit seinen Nachbarn und sein Fiatgeld wenn er noch eines uebrig hat.

XEX

die Schmelzkosten eines Buddha sind vermutlich wirklich "Glaubenssache" ... .

Beim US Dollar bin ich auch eher abwesend mit Prognosen.
Habe da gar keine Meinung, die mir irgendwie weiter helfen könnte, also ignoriere ichs.

Wieso sonst würde mich nach wie vor das Silver Valley Idaho ineressieren, Pink Sheets in US Dollar.
Wenn der US Dollar fällt, steigt Silber, und damit die Silberaktien, also ist es mir egal, ob er fällt. Irgendwo bei 1,28 liegt mein Mischkurs.
Selbst bei 1,74 er Kurs beim US Dollar sind das bloss gut 26% Differenz.

An guten Tagen machen die pink Sheets 50% Wertverluste & am nächsten gehts wieder zurück ... .
Don't worry, be happy!

grüsse,
gutso

PPS: Was aber meines Erachtens wirklich immer interessanter wird, mit stärkerem Euro, sind die Energy Trusts! Siehe Eldos Thread dazu! ...
Habe da die HTE, die CNE & die FDG im Auge.

:DDON'T TRUST A TRUSTEE.... Gutso

Aber was waere das fuer eine Welt wenn man gar keinen vertrauen kann.

Ich glaube die Regierung verschieben den Termin wann Steuer faellig ist oder aendern etwas positives fuer die Trusts.

Dann erholen die sich schnell mit hoeheren Gas/Oil Preisen im Winter 2006/2007.

Gute Renditen pro Jahr...passt schon als Sideliner.

Ciao

XEX

Auch das - mit den Korrekturen pro Trusts - ist jederzeit möglich, Eldo,

Ich glaube es ist bei den Trusts ohnehin so, dass sich das neue Steuerumfeld allmählich in die Preise einbindet, und ein zusätzliches Interesse aus aller Welt langsam alles wieder ausgleichen wird.
Selbst wenn eine Steuer kommt, was bleibt denn den Leuten als Alternative?

Bei uns kaufen Leute trotz Mehrwertsteuer immer mehr Silber und Palladium, ich auch, naja, manchmal auch richtig günstig.

Gruss & schönen Sonntag,
gutso

An Alle

Man sollte seine Gegner nicht unterschätzen und sich in Siegerlaune begeben bevor kapituliert worden ist.

Und selbst dann nicht ......

Die Macht der Cabale ist zwar nicht unendlich, aber bei weitem noch nicht mal im Ansatz erschöpft. Die Möglichkeiten - gerade abseits vom Geld - sind immens und einige Veränderungen oder neue Gesetze/ Verbote können Rahmenbedingungen schaffen, die erst einmal für eine weitere Zeit Handlungsspielraum und Machterhalt gewähren.

Mir sind hier im Forum die Betrachtungen zu sehr auf die USA gerichtet, meiner Meinung nach halten die USA im Moment nur zu gern den Kopf hin, damit man draufhauen kann. Das lenkt ab und die bisher gebeutelte Gemeinde freut sich.

Ich denke, es besteht längst eine Abmachung unter den führenden westlichen Nationen und vielleicht auch einigen Asiatischen über die Einführung des AMERO und wie diese den Umtausch - für ihre eigene Währung natürlich erfolgreich - vollziehen können.

Da ist ein fallender Dollar nur von Vorteil, er entschuldet und gibt den Bondinhabern keine Möglichkeit des Angriffs.

Nachher wird der USD gegen den juten neuen (teuren) AMERO für fast gar nichts eingetauscht, das Defizit ist nahezu verschwunden, die Chinesen sind ihren Dollarberg los, der eh jetzt schon nichts mehr wert ist als ein Zahlenspiel auf dem Papier.

mal sehen, was dann der Rest von Asien und die Araber machen, ob sie wohl die neue Währung gegen Öl und andere Rohstoffe akzeptieren?

Einfacher wäre es, wenn der AMERO eine Weltwährung würde, aber wer glaubt daran ....., bis dahin ist es noch ein weiter Weg.

Aber immerhin ist fast alles denkbar solange das Geldsystem ein Monopol der Regierungen ist.

Und Gold? Nun ja, ich glaube Gold wird für einen kurzen Zeitraum "massive Zahlensprünge" machen wenn es an die Währungsumstellungen geht. Wohl dem, der engagiert ist und zu dem Zeitpunkt ggf. daran partizipieren kann und sich mit bleibenden Werten wie Immobilien etc. eindeckt.

Ich füge hier noch einmal den Artikel an, den ich allen wärmstens ans Herz lege.
Erkenne Deine Gegner, unterschätze sie nicht und sei vorbereitet

Denn wenn eines Tages hier die Lichter ausgehen und ihr Eure schönen Zahlenspiele und Tabellen nicht mehr zuposten könnt weil die Server abgeschaltet sind, wir auf unseren Gold - und (hoffentlich) Silberbeständen sitzen, die Banken zu sind und auch Proaurum, Westgold, Pickel und all die anderen erstmal nicht zu erreichen sind - ja dann heisst es Flagge zeigen und es wird interessant.

Nur um allen Irritationen vorzugreifen: ich bin ABSOLUT pro GOLD+SILBER und (fast voll) engagiert.

Hier der Artikel, sehr aufschlussreich, Teil zwei folgt im nächsten posting, da der Text zu lang für ein posting war.:

Through the Looking Glass...

The World's Mastermind:
the Hidden Face of Globalization
- A view >from Argentina -
by Adrian Salbuchi (*)

“Those who do not learn from history
are condemned to re-live it”

- George Santayana -

Many people in all parts of the world are taking an increasingly critical view of the worldwide phenomenon we call “globalization”. Not that they are against constructive cooperation amongst the sovereign nations of the world on common goals, but rather that they reject many aspects of today's model of globalization in which destructive and perverse forces priorizing the interests and objectives of the few, seem to have gained the upper hand.

As we now have it, globalization can be defined as an ideology that identifies the Sovereign Nation-State as its key enemy, basically because the State's main function is (or should be) to prioritize the interests of the Many - i.e., "the People" - over the interests of the Few. Accordingly, the forces of globalization seek to weaken, dissolve and eventually destroy the very foundations of the Nation-State as a basic social institution, in order to replace it with new supra-national worldwide social, political, economic, financial and military management structures. Such structures tie in with the political objectives and economic interests of a small number of highly concentrated and very powerful groups and organizations which today drive and steer the globalization process in a very specific direction.

These power groups consist of private interests which have succeeded in achieving something that is unprecedented in all of human history, and which we describe as the privatization of power on a global scale.

"Globalization" is actually a hypocritical understatement or euphemism of what former US presidents Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry S. Truman and George H.W. Bush - each at different times in modern history - described as the “New World Order”.

A New World Order! Clearly, when former president George Bush Sr. unabashedly used that term on 11th September 1991, the Establishment quickly moved to ensure that it should not be commonly used, and in its place coined the much more neutral and seemingly harmless sounding idea of “globalization” which, nevertheless, today still has one main meaning: US-UK-Israeli Imperialism on a planetary and all-encompassing scale. This, at least, is how a growing number of people in Argentina and in our Region see things today.

Who are they? What do they want?

The process we have described is in no way anonymous - much less, secret - because the power groups promoting and driving the New World Order are doing so in full public view: i.e., multinational corporations (e.g., the Fortune Global 500s accounting for over 80% of US economic activity); the global financial infrastructure (which includes banks, investment funds, stock exchanges and commodity market operators); multimedia monopolies; major Ivy League universities; international multilateral organizations (such as the World Bank, the IMF/International Monetary Fund, the IADB/Inter-American Development Bank, the BIS/Bank of International Settlements, the UN/United Nations and the WTO/World Trade Organization) and, most important, key government posts in the United States, Israel, the United Kingdom and other industrialized nations. So, we definitely do not have something that can be explained away as a "conspiracy theory".

What we have are the inner trappings and logic behind the way Power is built and managed. What is not immediately visible is the fact that all of these players the form a veritable Wheel of Global Power have one thing in common: their key managers, financiers, bankers, government officers, academics, strategists, shareholders and other fundamental players all belong to the same inter-twining network of think-tanks and lobbying organizations. This network forms a common hub that steers the wheel of world power on its present destructive course.

Among these key think-tanks - which should actually be described as geopolitical planning centers -, the role of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), the Trilateral Commission (TC), the Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA), the Brookings Institution, the RAND Corporation, the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), the American Israeli Political Action Committee (AIPAC), and the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), amongst others, are of vital importance.

A Historical Perspective
To properly understand today’s world, one needs to look back on yesterday’s world, in order to see how this whole situation came about. It was back in 1919 when a small group of influential bankers, lawyers, politicians and academics – who were taking part in the Paris Peace negotiations between the victorious Allies and the vanquished Central Powers right after World War I – met in the Parisian Hotel Majestic and reached a transcendental agreement: they decided to create a network of “think tanks” - a sort of exclusive club or lodge - from which they would design the kind of “New World Order” which would properly address and accomodate the imperial worldwide interests and objectives of the Anglo-US Alliance.

In London, that think tank would take on the name of Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA), whilst in the United States it would become known as the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) based in New York City. Both organizations had the unmistakeable mark of the social strategy of gradually imposing a socialist (i.e., formally "democratic" but in reality increasingly authoritarian) political order as a means of mass control of the population. At that time, that was promoted by such masonic fronts as the Fabian Society financed by the Round Table Group which was in turn created, controlled and financed by South African magnate Cecil Rhodes, the international financial dynasty of the Rothschilds, various UK-based Ancient Rite Masonic Lodges, and the British Crown.

The CFR got its initial support >from the most wealthy, powerful and influential families in the United States, such as Rockefeller, Mellon, Harriman, Morgan, Schiff, Kahn, Warburg, Loeb and Carnegie (the latter, in particular, through its own front organization founded in 1910: the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace).

In order to express and thus propagate its influence amongst elite circles, one of the first measures of the CFR consisted in publishing its own journal which still remains the world’s premier mouthpiece on geopolitics and political science: Foreign Affairs. Amongst the CFR´s first directors, was Allan Welsh Dulles, a key figure in the US intelligence community who would later consolidate the covert spying structure of the CIA leading to the NSA; journalist Walter Lippmann, director and founder of The New Republic; a host of J.P. Morgan corporate lawyers; bankers Otto H. Kahn, and Paul Moritz Warburg,[1] the latter a wealthy German emigrée who emigrated to the United States and in 1913 designed and promoted legislation leading to the creation of the Federal Reserve Bank – the basically private central bank of the US which since then controls the financial structure of the United States (and, through it, of a good part of the world). When World War II ended in 1945, the Federal Reserve Bank was supplemented by the International Monetary Fund and The World Bank, both of which were masterminded, planned and designed by CFR planners at the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944.

Another member of the CFR and one of its first directors, was geographer and president of the American Geographical Society, Isaiah Bowman, who in 1919 would lead the team of experts re-drawing the map of Central Europe after the World War I, thus ushering in times of grave turmoil in Europe which would actually lead to World War II in 1939. It was CFR lawyers Owen D. Young (president of General Electric) and Charles Dawes (a top J P Morgan Bank lawyer), who in the twenties designed and promoted the “debt refinancing” plans for Germany’s war reparations debt imposed by the Treaty of Versailles. It was top Federal Reserve Bank directors and CFR members who would generate the monetary distortions leading to the 1929 financial crisis and ensuing Depression. It was CFR directors who through the powerful media under their control such as the NBC, ABC and CBS radio networks and newspapers like the The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Chicago Tribune and The New York Times, would coax and press public opinion to break US isolationist neutrality and embark that nation on another European war in 1939, which they themselves had been seeking since the early thirties.

Elite Power Structures
Although it is little known among public opinion, the CFR is very powerful and has grown in influence, prestige and breadth of activities. So much so, that today we can say without a doubt that it operates as the “World’s Mastermind”, silently directing the course of many complex and highly volatile social, politicial, financial, military and economic processes throughout the world. There are no peoples, regions or aspects of human life which are not affected by CFR influence – whether we realize this or not – and the very fact that it has been able to remain “behind the scenes” makes the CFR exceptionally powerful and elusive, even amongst US public opinion.

Today, the CFR is a discreet organization counting among its more than 4.500 members, the best, most capable and brightest minds, operating together with very powerful anbd influential individuals wielding great influence in their respective professions, corporations, institutions, governmental posts and social environments. In this way, the CFR brings together top corporate officers from financial institutions, industrial giants, the media, research organizations, academics, top military officers, government leaders, university deans, trade union leaders and study center investigators. Their fundamental objectives consist in identifying and assessing a wide range of political, economic, financial, social, cultural and military factors spanning every imaginable aspect of public and private life in the United States, its key allies and the rest of the world. Today, thanks to the enormous power wielded by the US, the CFR's breadth of activities literally spans the whole planet.

Its research and investigations are carried out by different task forces and study groups which identify Opportunities and Threats, assess Strengths and Weaknesses, and design far-reaching strategies to promote its interests worldwide, each with their respective tactical and operational plans. Although such intensive and far-reaching tasks are made inside the CFR, the key issue to understand its enormous success lies in the fact that the CFR per se never actually does anything under its own name. Rather, it is its individual members who do so. And they do this from their formal posts as chairmen, CEO’s and directors of major corporations, financial institutions, international multilateral institutions, media, and key posts in government, universities, the armed forces, and trade unions, never invoking or even referring to the CFR as their main seat of planning and coordination.[4]

Indeed, today we can find CFR members in many powerful and decisive posts. To name but a handful of the more than 4.500 CFR members, we find David Rockefeller, Henry Kissinger, Bill Clinton, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Samuel Huntington, Francis Fukuyama, Paul Wolfowitz, Colin Powell, Condoleeza Rice, Richard Perle, Robert Gates, James Baker III, Stephen Hadley, Douglas Feith, L. Paul Bremer III, John Bolton, John Negroponte, former secretary of state Madeleine Albright, international rogue financier George Soros, supreme court judge Stephen Breyer, Lowes/CBS CEO Laurence A. Tisch, former General Electric Co. CEO Jack Welsh, CNN CEO W. Thomas Johnson, former chairman and CEO of The Washington Post / Newsweek / International Herald Tribune Katherine Graham (and today her successor son), US vicepresidente, former secretary of defence, and former Halliburton CEO Richard Cheney, former president George H.W. Bush, former national security advisor to president Clinton Samuel “Sandy” Berger, former CIA directors John M. Deutch and George Tenet, Federal Reserve Bank former governor Alan Greenspan and present governor Benjamin Shalom Bernanke, former World Bank president James D. Wolfensohn, CS First Boston Bank CEO and former Federal Reserve Bank governor Paul Volcker, reporters Mike Wallace, Barbara Walters, Wolf Blitzer, top CitiGroup directors John Reed, William Rhodes, Stanford Weill, and Stanley Fischer (in turn formerly No. 2 at the IMF), economists Jeffrey Sachs and Lester Thurow, former treasury secretary, Goldman Sachs CEO and CitiGroup director Robert E. Rubin, former secretary of state and “mediator” during the the Falkland/Malvinas Islands War between Argentina and Britain Gral. Alexander Haig, “mediator” in the Balcan conflict Richard Holbrooke, IBM CEO Louis V. Gerstner, democratic senator George J. Mitchell, former republican representative Newt Gingrich, former Bush Sr. national sercurity advisor Air Force General Brent Scowcroft, Kenneth Lay (recently deseased member of the Trilateral Commission and Enron CEO), amongst many, many others.[5]

In the business world, top Fortune 500 corporations all have senior directors who are CFR members. These corporations together have a combined market value equivalent to almost twice the gross domestic product of the United States and concentrate the better part of the wealth and power of that country, controlling key resources and technologies around the world. Together, they employ over 25 million people in the US alone and account for over 80% of its GDP. In short, they wield gigantic power, leverage and influence in the US and beyond.

We thus find here the key to the CFR’s enormous effectiveness and power: its decisions and plans are drafted out and agreed in closed meetings, study groups, conferences and task forces. But when the time comes to execute those plans, they are then carried out by its different members, each from his or her formal post in different powerful organizations, both public and private. And what powerful posts and organizations these are!

If, for example, a plan has been drafted and agreed regarding how globalisation of the economy and the financial system is to evolve, or which countries are to enjoy peace and prosperity and which are to be ravished by war, invasion and famine, then the coordinated action of personalities like the president of the United States, his secretaries of state, defense, commerce and treasury, CIA, NSA and FBI directors, key international bankers and financiers, Fortune 500 CEO's, media owners and moguls, reporters and writers, military officers and academics, heads of the IMF, World Bank and World Trade Organization, are all brought together at the right time, in the proper sequence and on a myriad of specific matters. In this way, they are able to coordinate concrete, effective and almost irrestistible action, anytime and anywhere.

This is how it has worked for more than eighty years.

Hier Teil zwei des zuvor geposteten Artikels.

Real Power and Formal Power
In order to understand how the world really works, we must first understand the difference that exists between Formal Power and Real Power. What the media propagate with a very high public profile every day in their television and radio newscasts, and in the press are basically the concrete and visible results of the actions carried out by Formal Power structures, especially those of national governments and the technological, financial and corporate infrastructures. However, Real Power levers that actually make things happen are far less visible. They are the ones which plan out what will occur in the world, when it will occur, where it will take place and who shall carry it out.

Formal Power operates short-term and with a high public profile. Real Power operates within a long-term framework and has almost no public profile. Nowadays, Formal Power is mostly “public” – Real Power is fundamentally “private”. This reflects the fact that the institutions of the Nation-State (the prime public Formal Power entity) has become subordinate to private interests (i.e., Real Power driven by money interests).

Since the United States is today’s sole superpower, it is reasonable to conclude that this world power structure – that is what it really is – provisionally manages this veritable World Government from the territory, the political and economic structures of the United States. This, however, by no means implies that the majority of the people of the United States necessarily form part of that scheme of things, much less that the people of the US are "enemies" of any other peoples (rarely are the People of any country an "enemy"; rather, it is their elite establishments that become adversarial through excessive concentration of power).

We are thus speaking of power groups which operate from within the United States (as they also do from within the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Israel and, through their local agents, also in countries like Spain, Argentina, Brasil and Korea), but that are not necessaily identified with the people of the United States.

To better understand the true nature of the United States – especially in what refers to US Foreign Policy – one does well to keep in mind that the US “Administration” as they so aptly call their Government - i.e., Formal Power - is based in Washington DC. However, Real Power structures in the US are mainly located in New York City and some New England states. In other words, the Administration of the United States is done from Washington DC, whilst the country is actually governed from New York City.

Once we grasp this concept, then many other things automatically fall into place. Additionally, the world's real power center resides not in New York City but, more likely, in London… Understanding this complex and subtle process automatically pre-empts any simplistic identification of the “enemy” as the United States or England or any other peoples. More often than not, in times of turmoil the people of the United States are victims – even bloody ones as fallen US citizens in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and the World Trade Center attest to – of this very process. Nevertheless, the fact that most people in the US ignore this fact, does not make them less responsible or accountable for the genocidal strategies the New World Order power structures operating from US territory perpetrate upon the rest of the world through the use and abuse of US military and economic might to achieve their goals.

That this should be so is understandable when one considers that exercising Real Power requires complying with a set of rules and conditions such as, for example, operational continuity spanning many decades in order to achieve far-reaching goals and carrying out complex strategies which, in turn, span the entire planet, its nations and resources. This requires long-term planning: twenty, thirty and fifty years into the future.

Ironically, the New World Order power elites know full well that there is no greater threat to political continuity and consistency in the design and execution of such long-term global strategies, than to have them subjected to a democratic process that imposes high public profiles on its leaders who must (or should!) heed the "voice of the People" at every step they take, coupled with recurrent power interruptions which all democratic electoral processes entail.

How much better it is to be able to operate discreetly, from what can only be describes as a gentlemen’s club such as the CFR, in which powerful and influential men and women can be officers, directors and chairmen for decades at a time without ever having to be accountable to anybody but their own peers. In this manner, 4.500 powerful individuals can exert tremendous policital, economic, financial and media clout over countless hundreds of millions of people throughout the entire planet.

It goes without saying that one of the main tasks of the global media monopolies is to impose “political correctness”, normally expressed through the "Two-Party System" – Democrats and Republicans in the US, Labour and Conservative in the UK, CDU or SPD in Germany, Radicals and Justicialists in Argentina – all of which are mere variations of the same basic politically correct tenets, and of each other. Stable Western democracies have all conformed to what is, in practice, a One-Party System with slightly different internal factions. People think they may “choose”, but the "options" are just not there: it's sort of like "choosing" between Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola – no matter what they want you to believe, the truth is that they are both basically the same thing.

What we are describing is, in fact, the central hub of a veritable network of powerful people, considering that the CFR is, in turn, supplemented by a myriad of similar institutions both inside and outside of the United States.

All of these think tanks bring together the most intelligent, best prepared, creative and ambitous men and women in a wide range of fields and disciplines. They are paid and rewarded very handsomely - both economically and socially - as long as they clearly and uncompromisingly align themselves to the basic tenets of the CFR’s political objectives. These are nothing less than the creation of a Private World Government; the systematic erosion of the structures of all sovereign Nation-States (though, naturally, not all of them in the same way, at the same speed, nor at the same time); the (sub)standardization of cultural values and social norms; the spreading of a globalized financial system based on gross speculation and usury; and the management of a Global War System in order to maintain the necessary social cohesion of its own masses by permanent coaxing and alignment against real or imagined enemies of “democracy”, “human rights”, “freedom” and “peace”; i.e., against "terrorism".[6]

Since 2003, we saw first-hand how inexistent Iraqui “Weapons of Mass Destruction” turned out to be nothing but Weapons of Mass DISTRACTION, generating enormous suffering, pain and hardship for untold millions of people. The invasion of Irak and Afghanistan are just two examples of the double-standards and double-talk "Newspeak" on which this entire system thrives.

Thus, in order to better understand today's world, one needs to read and assess what the CFR – or rather, its individual members - say and propagate, as many of its activities though discreet are not actually secret. Any person visiting CFR headquarters on fashionable Park Avenue and 68th Street in New York City, as I have done many times in recent years, can easily get all sorts of information including a free copy of their latest Annual Report describing the Institution’s main activities and the full alphabetical list of its 4.500 members. All the information on these organizations is readily available for those who want to see it. It is, then however up to each of us to cross-check all that data on CFR members with what each really does in their professional, corporate, academic and government activities and capacities.

One need also look back on modern history and assess the exceptional leverage which the CFR has had throughout the twentieth century, both on its own, as well as in conjunction with its sister organizations. They have triggered and influenced ideologies, public events, wars, military alliances, political crimes, covert actions, mass psychological warfare, economic and financial crises, promotion and destruction of political and business personalities, and other high-impact events – many of them clearly difficult or impossible for them to admit or confess. All have, however, marked the course of humanity in these stormy modern times.

The technique used is to keep us all far too busy and fascinated as pasive spectators of this whirlwind of events taking place every day in the world. This ensures that almost no one ever thinks of looking elsewhere for suitable explanations to today’s grave crises, because that would then enable us to identify, not so much the effects and shocking results of many of these political decisions and covert actions, but rather their real and concrete originators, organizers and objectives.

In order for this gigantic mass psychological warfare – for that is what it really is - to succeed, the mass media play a vital role which cannot be underestimated. For they are the instruments whose goal it is to undermine and neutralise the capacity of independent thought among the world’s population. That is the key role of global mass media like CNN, CBS, NBC, The New York Times, The Daily Telegraph, Le Figaró, FoxNews, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, Corrieri della Sera, Le Monde, Washington Post, Time, Newsweek, US News & World Report, Business Week, Reuters, and their respective local outlets in all countries, all of which are directed by key people belonging to the CFR and/or its sister organizations in the US and elsewhere.

And the worst part of it all is that, in spite of all the enormous friction, wars, violence and destruction it generates, the New World Order just does not work. You cannot build a world empire only based on billions of dollars, B1 bombers, F16 fighters, Tomahawk missiles, CNN and gross lying and hipocrasy at the top. Historically, Rome, France, Spain and even Britain knew that only deeper cultural values can consolidate a true empire that will endure even after the colonizing power is long gone, as has happened even to this very day throughout South America where Spanish, Potuguese (and British) influence are ubiquitous. These key cultural factors seem to be very much lacking in the United States that was once described by former French premier George Clemenceau as “that complex political and social process running from barbarity to civilization without going through the necessary stage of culture…”

Implications for Argentina and our Region

Within this context, we can say that the local media in Argentina, our educational system and local mainstream politicians are all basically aligned to the New World Order process – independently of whether they are aware of this or not. In this respect, this System of Domination has three key objectives:

To hide from public opinion how the world really works, knowing that if we cannot properly understand and diagnose the source of our problems and weaknesses, then we can hardly expect to find the proper solutions to them. We are thus (mis)led into believing that we are at “peace”, when in actual fact a veritable and violent total war is being waged against Argentina since more than half a century on the political, economic, financial, media, educational, technological and environmental fronts. Primarily, this is a Psychological War.
To make us all believe that although we are in a difficult situation, “things will improve”, as long as we reach yet another "agreement" with international bankers and speculators, privatize more State interests, reform our federal and provincial governments to the World Bank’s liking, reform our labour, educational and social legislation, and do all necessary so that “international investors” will smile upon us. The truth is that to say we are in a “difficult situation” is an absurd understatement: Argentina is in a terminal situation and if we do not awaken to this reality, in a few more years – a decade at most – we shall cease to exist as a country altogether.[7] Clearly, Argentina has only two options: either we accept living with all the problems and crises we have and take no action to resolve them, trying to merely manage their consequences as best we can or, we confront these problems and crises and decide to do something about them. Naturally, the second option is more difficult and risk laden. Our Governments over the past thirty years have all chosen the former option of living with these problems, which has led us to our present predicament.
3. To make us believe that, whether we like it or not, there is nothing we can do to stop “globalization”. The truth, however, is that there are myriads of things that we can do to neutralise the adverse effects of globalization. But they all require that we first recover sovereign Nation-State institutions that will achieve its basic and fundamental functions of:

· integrating internal conflicting social forces (i.e., promote the Common Good),

· foreseeing all possible threats and opportunities from without and within (i.e., defending the National Interest), and

· leading the Nation on a political course geared on defending its national interest (i.e., leading the country to its Destiny).

These functions require the existence of a Sovereign Nation-state which Argentina today no longer has. We have become a colony, so we must first promote a true Second Declaration of Independence in order to found a Second Argentine Republic. The implications and inspiration for our region and even further afield of such a revolutionary act would be truly momentous.[8]

Additionally – and this is beyond the scope of this brief article –, the global financial infrastructure is on the brink of what can only be described as a controlled worldwide collapse, something that the CFR has been carefully planning through various projects such as the so-called Financial Vulnerabilities Project and New International Financial Architecture programmes. When this occurs it will spell out unimagined new opportunities for Argentina and our region.

As we become aware of these realities, the road which we need to tread becomes increasingly clear too. In truth, things then do not appear as complex as we once thought. It is all basically a question of thinking with our own minds and not with the minds of our adversaries; of starting to assess and defend our National Interest, which implies having our own view of world events, interests and forces, and then taking intelligent measures that respond to our needs, real possibilities and idiosincracy. In this sense, we have an advantage because we do not need not “reinvent the wheel”, as the CFR gives us a brilliant and highly successful blueprint for political, economic, financial and social planning and management of national power. Why not learn from them? Why not form our own network of think-tanks, bringing together a wide range of local, regional and like-minded interests, players and thinkers from different fields? Why not put them all to work on promoting the National Interests of Argentina and its neighbours, so as to recover sovereignty and self-determination for our peoples in a consistent and coherent manner, irrespective of what the world power players try to impose upon us?

But to do this we must first understand what globalization really is: an immensely large range of threats which we need to avoid, and opportunities which we should take advantage of. Regarding every subject having potential impact on us, we need to understand which are our relative strengths and weaknesses in order to be able to successfully confront them; if not today, then certainly in the future. That requires proper planning. Medium and long-term planning. That requires trying to always be one step ahead of the Adversary, achieving and keeping an edge and an advantage over coming events.

No doubt this will lead us to designing the right policies that are consistent with our National Interest, which in many instances will certainly not coincide with the interests of today's global power brokers. To this end, we need to seek and work closely with nations and organizations in Central and South America, Africa, Asia, and Europe, with which we share the common goal of neutralising the negative effects of global imperial domination. In truth, this all means that we need to found a New Argentina. We have many of the necessary tools already at hand; we have millions of countrymen ready to accept the challenge if we but explain to them clearly and forcefully the odds which are at stake; and there are millions of others beyond our borders with whom we can work arm-in-arm towards such a common Cause.

In short, it is really a question of understanding that in Politics there are two kinds of people: those who are active players in the political arena and those who merely and passively look on. The Council on Foreign Relations is clearly a key active player in the global political arenat. Isn't it time that we started doing the same in our own country?

Adrian Salbuchi - Buenos Aires, Argentina (2003; up-dated November 2006)

salbuchi@fibertel.com.ar - http://www.eltraductorradial.com.ar http://www.m2ra.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[1] Warburg belonged to a prestigious and powerful Jewish-German family of bankers, closely related to the Rothschilds and the Schiffs, owners of New York-based banking house, Kühn Loeb & Co. of which Paul Warburg was a partner together with CFR founding director, Otto Kahn. As a reflection of how these international power structures have been operating for almost a century, it is interesting to note that when the World War I ended, significantly, one Warburg – Paul – was on the Allied side of the negotiation table in Versailles, whilst another Warburg – his brother Max – was on the other side representing the vanquished Germans. Additionally, Jakob Schiff, Paul Warburg’s partner, had in turn financed the Japanese against the Russian Tsar during the 1905 Russian-Japanese War, thus paving the way for the Bolshevic Revolution.... Interestingly, another Kühn Loeb & Co.,partner N. Jivotovsky, had his daughter Natasha marry one Lev D. Bronstein which later became known as Leon Trotzky, through whose intermediary surprisingly large financing for the 1917 Bolshevic Revolution was funnelled….

[2] Kennan died recently at 101 years of age and almost to the last continued as an advisor at the CFR, an eloquent symbol of his continued influence spanning more than half a century among Real Power brokers in the CFR.

[3] Notably, W. Averell Harriman was a business partner of Prescott Bush, republican senator >from Connecticut, father of former president George Herbert Walker Bush and grandfather of president George W. Bush.

[4] The CFR’s so called “Rule of Non-attribution” specifically bans its members from ever publicly invoking the CFR in any way or manner or even disclosing matters discussed behind closed doors at its private meetings..

Zitat

Original von sidha
An Alle

Man sollte seine Gegner nicht unterschätzen und sich in Siegerlaune begeben bevor kapituliert worden ist.

Und selbst dann nicht ......

Die Macht der Cabale ist zwar nicht unendlich, aber bei weitem noch nicht mal im Ansatz erschöpft. Die Möglichkeiten - gerade abseits vom Geld - sind immens und einige Veränderungen oder neue Gesetze/ Verbote können Rahmenbedingungen schaffen, die erst einmal für eine weitere Zeit Handlungsspielraum und Machterhalt gewähren.

Mir sind hier im Forum die Betrachtungen zu sehr auf die USA gerichtet, meiner Meinung nach halten die USA im Moment nur zu gern den Kopf hin, damit man draufhauen kann. Das lenkt ab und die bisher gebeutelte Gemeinde freut sich.

Ich denke, es besteht längst eine Abmachung unter den führenden westlichen Nationen und vielleicht auch einigen Asiatischen über die Einführung des AMERO und wie diese den Umtausch - für ihre eigene Währung natürlich erfolgreich - vollziehen können.

Da ist ein fallender Dollar nur von Vorteil, er entschuldet und gibt den Bondinhabern keine Möglichkeit des Angriffs.

Nachher wird der USD gegen den juten neuen (teuren) AMERO für fast gar nichts eingetauscht, das Defizit ist nahezu verschwunden, die Chinesen sind ihren Dollarberg los, der eh jetzt schon nichts mehr wert ist als ein Zahlenspiel auf dem Papier.

mal sehen, was dann der Rest von Asien und die Araber machen, ob sie wohl die neue Währung gegen Öl und andere Rohstoffe akzeptieren?

Einfacher wäre es, wenn der AMERO eine Weltwährung würde, aber wer glaubt daran ....., bis dahin ist es noch ein weiter Weg.

Aber immerhin ist fast alles denkbar solange das Geldsystem ein Monopol der Regierungen ist.

Und Gold? Nun ja, ich glaube Gold wird für einen kurzen Zeitraum "massive Zahlensprünge" machen wenn es an die Währungsumstellungen geht. Wohl dem, der engagiert ist und zu dem Zeitpunkt ggf. daran partizipieren kann und sich mit bleibenden Werten wie Immobilien etc. eindeckt.

Ich füge hier noch einmal den Artikel an, den ich allen wärmstens ans Herz lege.
Erkenne Deine Gegner, unterschätze sie nicht und sei vorbereitet

Denn wenn eines Tages hier die Lichter ausgehen und ihr Eure schönen Zahlenspiele und Tabellen nicht mehr zuposten könnt weil die Server abgeschaltet sind, wir auf unseren Gold - und (hoffentlich) Silberbeständen sitzen, die Banken zu sind und auch Proaurum, Westgold, Pickel und all die anderen erstmal nicht zu erreichen sind - ja dann heisst es Flagge zeigen und es wird interessant.

Nur um allen Irritationen vorzugreifen: ich bin ABSOLUT pro GOLD+SILBER und (fast voll) engagiert......

Alles anzeigen

Klar, die letzte Schlacht ist noch nicht geschlagen. Und neben einem Totalzusammenbruch ist eine schleichende Geldentwertung mit deutlichen Phasen, in denen der Geldwert auch in Edelmetall zunimmt, das wahrscheinlichere Szenario.

Das hat den Vorteil, daß man Investoren / Spekulanten subatanziell ausbluten lassen kann und ihnen so zusätzliche Möglichkeiten nimmt.

Zum Amero: wann bitte soll der kommen? 2010, 2015? oder gar noch früher? Es wäre jedenfalls an der Zeit dafür, wenn vom Dollar noch ein wenig übrig bleiben soll, so angeschlagen, wie der (nicht mal so sehr charttechnisch, sondern vielmehr fundamental) momentan ausschaut.

Ok, mal angenommen, der Amero kommt. Was haben wir dann?

ca. 50 Jahre DM, 10 Jahre Euro und -ohne Währungsschnitt - zwei oder drei Jahre Amero?

Der Zinseszinsefekt ist gnadenlos. Der Druck auf alle und jeden nimmt nicht dadurch ab, daß das "Sorgen-Kind" einen neuen Namen bekommt.

Mit einem deutlichen Währungsschnitt könnte der Amero länger halten und (zumindest vorerst und nach einer kurzen Phase der Disziplin bei den Ausgaben und Kreditaufnahmen, auch international anerkannt sein.

Die Politiuker werden nicht weiterwurschteln wollen wie bisher. Die lechtzen nach einem Schluck aus einer neuen, randvoll gefüllten Pulle = Schuldenstreichung durch Währungsschnitt. Dann erst ist der Geld-Betrug perfekt.

Grundsätzliche Probleme, die die Gesellschaften in Europa und den USA belasteb bleiben aber weiterhin:
- Überalterung
- Arbeitslosigkeit
- Energieabhängigkeit.
- weit verbreitetes, sozialistisches Gedankengut (Anspruchsdenken)
- weit verbreitetes Sozialschmarotzertum und Schattenwirtschaft in Europa.
- eine ineffiziente Verwaltung und eine untätige / unwillige / blockierte Justiz in Deutschland.
- Korruptionsproblematik

Weswegen der Amero, oder wie auch immer er heissen mag, dann bis 2030 gnadenlos entwertet werden dürfte. Er wird -auf mittlere Sicht gesehen - das Papier nicht wert sein, auf dem ergedruckt ist.

Ein volles Edelmetallengagement halte ich momentan ebenfalls für riskant. Wenn auch weniger riskant als Schulden oder gar Fremdwährungskredite für Immobilienkäufe. Der Bargeldanteil sollte bei kleinen Vermögen dem Edelmetallanteil (Barren, Anlagemünzen) entsprechen oder bei mittleren Vermögen mit höheren Edelmetallanteilen aber mindestens für sechs Monate das Existenzminimum abdecken, bei größeren sogar mehrere Jahre. Wobei nichts dagegen spricht Bargeld in Form kursgültiger, silberner Geldstücke zu halten. Man kann ja nie wissen......

Und auch dann sind hohe Edelmetallquoten unter dem Gesichtspunkt der Risikostreuung immer noch recht riskant, aber wohl gerade noch vertretbar.

Der Mindest-Anteil von Edelmetall am Gesamtvermögen ohne Barreserve sollte aber 5 bis 15 Prozent betragen. Für alle Fälle.

Geldwertanlagen (Bonds, Bankguthaben, KLV´s langfristige Alters-Sparverträge) hingegen sollten erst garnicht eingegangen und dort, wo verlustfrei möglich minimiert werden.

Le Metropole Members,

Served at The Dos Passos Table:

The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: The derivatives market
has reached a face value of $480 trillion...30 times the
size of the U.S. economy...and 12 times the size of the
entire world economy. Trading in derivatives has become
not merely a huge boom or even a large bubble - but the
mother of a whole tribe of bubbles...dripping little
big bubbles throughout the entire financial sector.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The notion that the U.S. has no more gold (all reprocessed and swapped / leased or sold] and is now conducting swaps for "DEEP GOLD" is also highly consistent with – or at least provides a credible reason for – both Rothschild and AIG exiting the gold market in April/May 04 and June 04 respectively. They knew the basis of the physical game was "over".

This obscure news item [originally published in the N.Y. Post by Jennifer Anderson] in late Jan. 04 would probably have hastened the exit from the metals markets of the players named above:

DA investigating Nymex executive - Manhattan, New York, district attorney's office, Stuart Smith - Melting Pot - Brief Article – Feb. 2, 2004

A top executive at the New York Mercantile Exchange is being investigated by the Manhattan district attorney. Sources close to the exchange said that Stuart Smith, senior vice president of operations at the exchange, was served with a search warrant by the district attorney's office last week. Details of the investigation have not been disclosed, but a Nymex spokeswoman said it was unrelated to any of the exchange's markets. She declined to comment further other than to say that charges had not been brought. A spokeswoman for the Manhattan district attorney's office also declined comment.

You see, the offices of the Senior Vice President of Operations - NYMEX – is exactly where you would go to find the records [serial number and smelter of origin] for EVERY GOLD BAR ever PHYSICALLY settled on the exchange. They are required to keep these records. These precise records would show the lineage of all the physical gold settled on the exchange and hence "prove" that the amount of gold in question could not have possibly come from the U.S. mining operations – because the amounts in question coming from U.S. smelters would undoubtedly be vastly bigger than domestic mine production.

We never have found out what happened to poor ole Stuart Smith – after his offices were "raided" – he took administrative leave from the NYMEX and he has never been heard from since. Amazingly [or perhaps not], there has also been ZERO follow up on in the media on the original story as well as ZERO developments stemming from D.A. Morgenthau’s office who executed the search warrant.

There is now absolutely no doubt in my mind that these events are connected.

Best,

Rob Kirby

@mesodor

Zum AMERO. Der steht vor der Tür und wird sicherlich innerhalb der nächsten 2 Jahre aktuell. Was glaubst Du, warum so intensiv am Untergang des USD gebastelt wird?

In Deinem Zitat:
Die Politiuker werden nicht weiterwurschteln wollen wie bisher. Die lechtzen nach einem Schluck aus einer neuen, randvoll gefüllten Pulle = Schuldenstreichung durch Währungsschnitt. Dann erst ist der Geld-Betrug perfekt.

hast Du Dir ja selbst die Antwort schon gegeben.

Geld dient ausschliesslich der Manipulierbarkeit und dem Machterhalt, ob sich eine Währung nun 3, 5 oder 15 Jahre hält ist denen doch egal. Nur sie dürfen drucken und sämtliche notwendigen Produktiosstätten sind in der hand der Cabale, von den elektronischen Möglichkeiten gar nicht zu sprechen.

Was Deine Betrachtungen und Anmerkungen zur Gesellschaft angeht, so stimme ich Dir voll zu.

Grundsätzliche Probleme, die die Gesellschaften in Europa und den USA belasteb bleiben aber weiterhin:
- Überalterung
- Arbeitslosigkeit
- Energieabhängigkeit.
- weit verbreitetes, sozialistisches Gedankengut (Anspruchsdenken)
- weit verbreitetes Sozialschmarotzertum und Schattenwirtschaft in Europa.
- eine ineffiziente Verwaltung und eine untätige / unwillige / blockierte Justiz in Deutschland.
- Korruptionsproblematik

ABER GENAU DAS IST IM SINNER EINER ZU MANIPULIERENDEN MASSE DOCH GEWOLLT INSZENIERT !!!

@eldo

Zum Thema Derivateschreck hat sich Mr. HENRY PAULSEN kürzlich SEHR DEUTLICH geäussert: Er hat gesagt, er hält einen Zusammenbruch des Derivate Marktes für ÜBERFÄLLIG !!!

Und der mann sollte es als GS Altvorderer ja wirklich wissen.

Hier ist der ganze Artikel, meiner Meinung nach werden sie versuchen, darüber dass Schiff weiter steuern zu können:

Heads Up Senator Schumer, your homeboyz are still cheating in the currency markets! I'm embarrassed to admit that South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham is Schumer's sidekick, and another liar about this issue. We'll probably end up throwing Taiwan to the mainland Reds and call it even.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Paulson Believes a Financial Crisis is Overdue

While a complacent Wall Street, oblivious to all risks, continues to drive the market higher, it seems that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson believes that a financial crisis is overdue. Our suspicions were first aroused by a Wall Street Journal article on October 23, and confirmed by Fred Barnes in The Weekly Standard on November 27.

Although the WSJ article dealt mainly with lessening the financial regulations hurting competitiveness in the financial markets, it also included the following.Referring to Paulson, it stated,“Since taking the reins in July, the Wall Street veteran has reinvigorated the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, which had languished…Mr. Paulson is chairman of the Working Group, which coordinates government policy on financial markets and includes the heads of the Federal Reserve, Securities and Exchange Commission, and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Mr. Paulson has insisted that they meet about every six weeks.Before his arrival, the group met every few months and sometimes as infrequently as once a quarter.”Many of you may know that this is the group commonly referred to as the Plunge Protection Team.

The WSJ article went on to say that “Mr. Paulson is having the Working Group look at the systemic risk posed by hedge funds and derivatives, and the government’s ability to respond to a financial crisis, officials said.He has ordered his chief of staff, Jim Wilkinson, to oversee the creation of a Treasury command center to track markets world-wide and serve as an operations base in a crisis.The center would revive a market-monitoring room closed in a 2003 budget cut.”

Although we had some suspicions about Paulson’s motivation in reviving the Group in the midst of perceived prosperity and market complacency, we did not comment at the time in the absence of additional information.Our suspicions were basically confirmed, however, a few days ago by the Barnes article in The Weekly Standard. Barnes is a veteran columnist with good sources in the current administration, and a reading of the article seems to indicate that the information comes directly from Josh Bolten, the White House chief of staff, who previously worked for Goldman Sachs, which Paulson headed prior to becoming Treasury Secretary.

The Barnes article dealt both with Paulson’s surprisingly contrary views on China and with the serious potential of a financial crisis, presumably related to the systemic risk posed by hedge funds and derivatives discussed in the WSJ piece.Barnes stated that “unlike members of Congress, Paulson is more worried about the possibility of an economic stumble in China whose ripple effects would quickly reach the United States than he is about Chinese manipulation of its currency to promote exports and limit imports…Paulson takes exception to the popular notion that China’s rapid economic ascent will continue unimpeded…he said China’s future growth should not be extrapolated ‘from its past performance, as if China somehow found a way to immunize itself from business cycles and all other economic problems’.His concern is not that China will overtake the United States economically but that Chinese leaders ‘won’t move ahead with reforms to sustain growth’.That’s a polite explanation for what might cause an economic slowdown, or worse, in China. And ‘because it is a global leader, what happens in will affect the well-being of the United States and the rest of the world’.

Barnes then goes on to say that “Paulson’s fear of a significant Chinese recession dovetails with another of the major tasks assigned to him by Bush: crisis management.Paulson believes a financial crisis is overdue—a serious crisis that would be a body blow to the economy. This fear is shared to some extent by Bush and Bolten, who wanted a major Wall Street player at Treasury in case an economic emergency occurs.” Barnes then details Paulson’s activation of the financial working group “to prepare for the crisis”.

Alleine die Zahlen sprechen doch für sich: Auslandsverschuldung 3 Billionen, Vermögen der Amis im Ausland 10 Billionen, Vermögen der Ausländer in USA 13 Billionen. Netto-Zinszahlungen für die 3 Billionen praktisch 0, da die USA die produktiveren assets (Firmen vs. Anleihen) besitzen.

Wenn der US$ um 25% abwertet, liegt die Auslandsverschuldung der USA schon bei 0.

Wenn die Zinsen weiter steigen, krachen die Anleihen ein: 1% dürfte ca. 750 mrd. vernichten (wenn 50% der Ausländer in Bonds angelegt haben).

Und das ist z.B. der große Unterschied zu den SO-Asien Ländern 97. Dort war man in Auslandswährung, US$, verschuldet und die Schulden wurden in der Krise mehr statt weniger.

Gruß
S.