Wie geht es auf dem Goldmarkt weiter

Guten Morgen Edel

Das kann passieren, es ist ja so aehnlich wie beim Bild unten.
Viele glauben die Nummer/Farbe zu kennen aber sie kommt dann nicht.
Meistens bleibe ich bei den selben Nummern, wie beim Lotto.

Wo wir wieder beim wichtigen Diversifizieren sind.

HOPE YOU ALL GET LUCKY !

Dr. Clive Roffey
May 29, 2006

A month ago I sent out an extra report detailing all the leading global equity indexes and the huge number of sell divergences that were evident. Since then we have seen a sudden sell off in these markets. It is difficult for me to become bullish on global equities and I must look for any upside reaction to be classified as merely a rally in a new ongoing bear market.

But the data for resource stocks and particularly gold shares is the exact opposite. Whereas for the past few years the general equities have been forming major potential top patterns with sell divergences the resource markets have been in bottoming patterns and are ready for some further serious lift off. I classify the recent dip in resources as a necessary correction to cool off a very overheated situation. I rate this as a correction in an ongoing bull market that will take resource shares to new high ground.

The gold price rose some $45 above my oft stated count target of $685 and then fell $45 under this to react. This is a typical swing in the gold market. What ever level the price reaches above the target so will it correct under the target. In my work we have completed an Elliott Wave Irregular top in bullion with the classic killer C wave sell off. This has completed and the next bull movement should start right now.

My target for the next phase is $850 with a possible extension if the trend is powerful to $930.

I have updated my Elliott Wave analysis. I was expecting a run through to minor wave 9 to complete the rise from the middle of last year. This ensuing correction has completed the 7-8 major correction in the current large extended nine wave bull market since 2001. There is still one more wave to come in this bull run that should, in my analysis take the price above that of January 1980 and the $850 peak. I am looking for around $930 on bullion to complete the first massive bull leg of a long term major bull market. This is the final euphoric wave in which I expect to see every man and his dog become experts on the gold market and levels of well above $2000 an ounce forecast.

This is the wave in which financial managers at last become bullish and the unwary are sucked into the easy profits right at the top of the run. I expect to see at least a 100% appreciation in the gold shares. I expect to see serious ell divergence materialize at the top of this run. Until then remain fully invested in this gold market.

I rate the current gold and resource price levels as serious buying positions for a powerful upside move into the top of these markets by the end of the year. The next six months could be the most gain orientated period of 2006 for investment portfolios with a heavy gold and resource exposure

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/roffey/roffey052906.html

[URL=http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,19285373%255E664,00.html]Herald Sun: Gold output down[/URL]

AUSTRALIAN gold production fell nearly 10 per cent in the March quarter 2006compared with the corresponding period last year, as tropical storms battered key production areas.

Zitat

as tropical storms battered key production areas.

Klar, wenn nicht ausreichend Recourcen abgebaut werden können, sind es Streiks oder auch Stürme, die die Produktion behindern.

13% Produktionsrückgang zum März-Quartal 2006 gibt es auch in Südafrika, dort ist aber der Rand dran schuld.

In den Fußnoten ließt man jedoch, dass es auch die schwindenden Reserven sein könnten.

Rick's Picks

Some Perspective On Gold's Antics

Rick Ackerman
Tuesday, May 30

The Latest Correction

“That brings us up to the latest correction. It came after a frenzy of commodity buying--commodities of all kinds. Gold was inserted into this group as if it were zinc or copper. When the correction or profit-taking arrived, gold and the mining shares sold off with the rest. A relieved and gleeful mainstream media that had never understood why gold went up until the top, now declared the move completed and fully justified. This time they saw the bubble from afar. They weren't going to get tricked like they did back in the 1990's. They finally knew what a bubble looked like, and they could congratulate themselves for not getting trapped in this latest Ponzi scheme. ‘Take that, you arrogant gold bugs and naysayers! You are getting what you deserve! You should have bought Intel and Microsoft instead. You don't see them crash.’

“But as I have mentioned, gold-share corrections might have different personalities, but they all share some things in common. To wit, they are scary, and they will tend to cause irrational decisions. They plant fear and doubt in the heretofore unshakeable bulls who now must reconsider: ‘Is it all over? Should I pull out and look elsewhere, or perhaps, just go into cash?’ It is a sad fact that many who had bravado and firm convictions about a historic bull market are now out of the precious-metals move due to one or the other of the corrections. Some are out for good; others are waiting to get up the courage to put their toes back in. That is why I hear the word ‘perspective’ so loudly at this time.

Shares vs Gold

“Now to the latest selling. During the past two weeks, we had a major non-confirmation between the metal and the shares. This is always a warning signal although sometimes it has failed during this great rise. But it did come this time, and it came violently and differently from the other two. Here are some of the characteristics of this one that tell me that it is just a correction that will soon end, and then a new leg up will begin:

1) We have had a remarkable four major gaps down over the past 11 days. Extremely rare!

2) We have had consecutive bad openings or sell-offs on the past two Fridays and Mondays. I would guess that this is unbelievably rare as well.

3) Goldcorp, the proxy of the gold-share market, until this period averaged about five million shares daily; over the past nine days, the stock has averaged about 14 million shares daily. If you go back and look at major bottoms in stocks, it usually occurs when the leader, which used to be Microsoft or GM back in the old days, has just a day or two of enormous volume. This one has occurred over 9 days. Unreal.

Media Ignored Rally

4) Finally, everyone and his sister knows how scary this sell-off has been. During the entire move up, gold was barely whispered about in the media. But now, the commodity bubble is on every front page and on the lips of every financial announcer. We have been warned continually about this bubble. There will be no blood on their hands.

“My conclusion is that, even though this latest panic has taken many stocks down 30% or so from their highs, in essence it is no different from previous panics. Indeed, you can be sure that once the last seller has dumped his stock, precious-metal shares will renew their historical move, this time bringing an unprecedented speculation in the smaller miners.

“One final lesson. Remember the Crash of 1987 that covered the front pages of all of the newspapers? I think everyone remembers that the stock market declined 505 points that Monday, or an incredible 20 percent in one day, and a total of 35 percent in just six weeks. That seems all the more amazing when one considers today's market, when even a 50 point drop is considered noteworthy. But what is especially noteworthy is the fact that whoever bought that day, if they held without for the next decade, would have made seven times their purchase -- and that doesn’t include the huge extra bonus they’d have reaped if they’d stuck with the Nasdaq.

“Don't let your perspective be shaken by these emotional days.
They are historic buying opportunities, just as existed at the bottom of gold’s last two corrections, and just as they were in 1987.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ackerman/current.html

GOLD at $700 is Still Very Cheap!
We Should Not Be Surprised.
Gold's Relentless Rise is no Bubble

Jay Taylor....The Fundamentals Suggest at Least $3,000 Gold

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/taylor052806.html

THE BIGGER PICTURE

Tony Locantro

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/locantro052806.html

Gold and silver stocks in particular had no time to react to the strong movement in prices. Even at $700Usoz for gold you could still buy quality gold juniors for a whopping 15c or 3c above where they were trading 5 years ago. Apart from a handful of market darlings and the big Victorians the gold sector has done didly squat and investors have yet to come to grips with the fact that some of these companies could have been locking in prices of around $1000AUD per ounce and will be profitable for many years to come.
The rush for mines and resources has not yet begun in earnest. When cash and profits are king I would expect that those with the balance sheets and supporters to do it, will start picking up the micro caps, take them overseas and getting full value for their shots. There have been some takeovers and management shifts here but nothing to really capture the attention of speculators.

Gold, silver and base metals have enjoyed excellent rises over the last five years with equities still having considerable ground to make up if this is indeed the real thing. Valuations applied to some companies are far from "Bubblevision", however the majority are focussed on what could go wrong as opposed to what could well come off. At the Asia Mining Congress recently held in Singapore someone stood up and closed the conference with the following remark or similar.

"The speculative market is like someone busting to go the toilet where they are looking at how much paper is left on the roll.

The smart ones would go and get another roll or two out of the cupboard, whilst those stranded yelling, "more toilet paper please" are nowhere near the smaller end of the market at this point".

Nach einigen Tagen Depotabstinenz kehrt sich der bange Blick nun wiederum in schiere Ungläubigkeit um: bei mir stehen heute einige Werte (z.B. Aurizon) knapp höher als vor dem "Crash" - bei großem Volumen.
Muß zugeben, daß ich im Moment ratlos bin, was dies alles zu bedeuten hat, weil sich meine anderen Aktienbestände ( Langweilerwerte) aus aller Welt auch nicht annähernd so beweglich nach oben hin erweisen.
Also doch fast 100% in PM investiert sein, aber dann möglicherweise
mit Herzschrittmacher noch lange vor dem 50. Geburtstag?

auratico

Du hast Dir die Antwort doch schon selbst gegeben, mensch so eine kleine gesunde Korrektur ist kein Problem. Und Du kannst in PM engagiert sein auch ohne Herzschrittmacher - auch nach 50, sage ich aus persönlicher Erfahrung - Du brauchst eben nur etwas Geduld. Energie und Rohstoffe (dazu zähle ich auch nunmehr Silber) sowie Gold werden im Depot richtig kommen, den Rest kannst Du entsorgen. Schau Dir nur mal die Indizes und deren Zusammensetzung an, dann weist Du bescheid.
Guck bloss nicht jeden Tag auf den Monitor, sonst brauchst Du vielleicht doch einen Herzschrittmacher.

hi eldo, grüsse aus dem land der beben, ich lebe in der region, die sich der ring aus feuer nennt und bin glücklicherweise von der neuen katastrophe verschont geblieben.
apropos beben, seit 5 stunden kannst du auf dem strich, den der gold aber auch silberchartsowie HUI hinterlässt, spazierengehen, oder ein wasserglas abstellen, oder was auch immer. öl und euro auch völlig ruhig, haben die keine lust mehr oder geht es jetzt tatsächlich in der nächsten zeit erstmal seitwärts.
was meinst du dazu? liebe grüsse

@ sidha
Heute ist in NY und London Börsenfeiertag

Heute keine Erdbeben in New York und London wegen Feiertag, fuer uns ein Ruhetag, Sidha.

uuuuh, die letzten beiden tage waren hier echt so aufregend, dass ich schon nichts mehr mitkriege, ich geh jetzt schlafen. gute nacht eldo und danke für die info

Hallo Eldo,

habe eben auf der Startseite von GS Schulzes Gold-Wochenchartanalyse gelesen. Bei dem folgenden Zitat, fielen mir Deine gestressten Kommentare von letzter Woche ein:

Originalzitat Schulz " Nach einem fröhlichen Auf und Ab in der Vorwoche notierte das Gold per Saldo letztlich kaum verändert."

Fröhlich..............

Gruß Wolfswurt

Und ich wage die vorsichtige Prognose, daß die Konsolidierung beim Gold nun (29.05.2006) kurz vor ihrem Ende steht und wir bis Mitte Juni 2006 erneut die 700-Dollar Marke sehen und auch überschreiten werden.

Und ich lege nach:
Ein Sommerloch mit deutlichen Kurseinbrüchen und Jahrestiefstkursen, das wird es dieses Jahr nicht geben.

Hängt vom US$ ab, unter 127 nix mit Goldhausse, über 129/129.50 wahrscheinlich neue Hochs.

Warte jetzt schon seit Tagen, daß sich da was tut.

Commercials sind long im US$. PPT team ist durch den Snow Rücktritt wohl nicht 100%ig handlungsfähig.

Gruß
S.

Noch besser mit 137% ? :D....falls so weiter geht.

Huiiiii, das waere eine Freude fuer die early birds und risktakers.

Ueber 340 koennte man sagen das schlimmste ist vorueber und sich getrost hinlegen.

Mal schaun

Good luck anyway

Eldo

Und nun wechseln wir die Frage auf:

Und wie geht es mit dem Dollar weiter ?

Let it Snow $$$$$$$$ und die sind alle froh.

Ich habe eigentlich eine short time Rally erwartet und Zinserhoehungen die den Fiat $ wieder attraktiv machen.

Gold stiegt nur dehalb weil eben der Dollar abschmierte.

Wenn der USD Index unter 80 geht dann ""Adios Dollar"".

Dann gehts ab zum Mond mit dem PoG.

Cheers

XEX

Vorerst bin ich aus dem Kochtopf draussen.