Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

  • ... fängt sich, und USD zu JPY senkrecht nach Süden! War's das schon mit dem Durchsacker? Wenn ja, dann war heute ein klassischer Umkehrtag für Gold: starker Absacker, Tiefkurse nicht unterboten, starker Turn bis Handelsende deutlich über 800. Wenn der Euro heute im Plus schließt, dann ist mir wg. dem AU 800 auch nicht mehr bange, dann haben wir das schlimmste hinter uns. Aber noch ist ja nicht Abend, bis dahin kann noch einiges passieren.


    1+

  • Sorry aber das koennt ihr selber uebersetzen,oder einfach ueberblaettern wenn es zu viel ist.



    A Status Report On The US Empire:


    According to the Pentagon's 2008 “Base Structure Report” (its annual unclassified inventory of the real
    estate it owns or leases around the world), the US maintains 761 active military “sites” in foreign
    countries.
    The United States has 510,927 military service personnel deployed in 151 foreign countries.

    With a presence in 151 foreign countries and with 761 bases, the question can again be asked. Where are
    the national borders of the United States? :hae: :D
    But behind the present stage of US global military might lies
    another historical fact. The economic costs of this global military reach are enormous. According to the
    Fed, in July 2008 US workers in production or non-supervisory roles earned 3.1 percent less than they did
    a year ago after adjusting for the rising cost of living. Again according to the Fed, 40 percent of
    American families spend more than they earn
    .


    The military enterprise is destroying living standards.
    Status Report On The US Financial System:


    US losses and write-downs on securities related to home loans to people with poor credit now exceed
    $US 504 Billion at financial institutions and there is more to come. Over the last four months, the prices
    of US commercial (repeat - commercial) real estate have started to fall at an accelerating rate.


    ALL American Roads Lead To The US Treasury:


    In July, US Treasury Secretary Paulson was forced to seek Congressional authority to inject unlimited
    capital into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after their shares tumbled about 90 percent, wiping out some
    $US 54 Billion of stock market value.
    On August 26, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila
    Bair said that her agency might have to borrow money from the Treasury Department to see it through an
    expected wave of bank failures which lie ahead. General Motors reported a second-quarter loss of $US
    15.5 Billion and Ford Motor Co reported an $US 8.7 Billion loss. The US auto makers are on the way to
    Congress to ask for the US Treasury to borrow $US 50 Billion and re-lend it to them on easy terms for
    three years while they re-capitalise their plant and equipment. They can’t do it without these loans.


    A Quote To Alarm The World:


    Mr Yu Yongding, a former adviser to China's Central Bank, has come out with the following statement:

    “If the US government allows Fannie and Freddie to fail and international investors are not compensated
    adequately, the consequences will be catastrophic. If it is not the end of the world, it is the end of the
    current international financial system.”
    China holds $US 376 Billion of long-term US agency debt, most of it in Fannie and Freddie assets.
    Perhaps The Chinese Gentleman Listened To Mr Buffett:
    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest mortgage finance companies, “don't have any net worth”,
    billionaire investor Warren Buffett said. “The game is over” said Buffett, the 77-year-old Chairman of
    Berkshire Hathaway, in an interview on August 22. Fannie has about $US 120 Billion of debt maturing
    through September 30 while Freddie has $US 103 Billion due, according to the figures provided by the
    companies. If either company is unable to roll over this debt, the government could be forced to step in.
    The Fannie/Freddie report called for an equity injection by the US government in a quasi nationalization.
    This does not require putting the agencies' liabilities on the US balance sheet and doubling the US debt!
    After accounting for tax assets and generous asset markets, Fannie and Freddie each may have a negative
    $US 50 Billion in asset value with little prospect of digging themselves out of the hole, Barron's reported.



    Status Report On The US Collateral Foundation:


    In financial terms, Fannie and Freddie are placed on top of their collateral foundation. That foundation is
    made up of the valuations of American real estate. If these valuations fall, the asset side of Fannie and
    Freddie’s balance sheet starts to fall while their mortgages held and the guarantees they have made do not
    fall in the slightest. These last two are their liabilities. It is time to take a clear look at this US collateral
    foundation. The median sales price of California homes sold in July was 40.3 percent below where it was
    a year ago, the California Association of Realtors has reported. California’s median sales prices across
    the state, which peaked at just under $US 600,000 late last summer, have fallen from $US 587,560 in July
    2007 to $US 350,760 in July 2008. This is a US collateral foundation crash.


    The US Deflationary Crash:


    It is also a full scale deflationary event. Consider a full cash purchase sale at the median price in July
    2007. If that purchaser had sold one year later in July 2008 he would have received 40.3 percent or
    $US 236,800 less than he paid for the house. That loss would have deflated or contracted his future
    capacity to make purchases or investments by that amount. Of course, these days very few buyers
    purchase a house for cash. Instead, money is borrowed to cover 80-90-100 percent of the purchase price.
    The same collateral crash exposes the lenders to the same scale of losses, however, and it is these lenders’
    mortgages which Fannie and Freddie have already bought or offered their guarantees against!


    The US Deflationary Crash Goes Local:


    US regional banks together with US insurers hold the majority of Fannie and Freddie's $US 36 Billion of
    outstanding preferred stock. They could be wiped out in the event of a government rescue. This means
    that it is not enough for the US Treasury to bail out Fannie and Freddie, all these small and mid-sized US
    banks will also have to be taken care of. These US regional banks are now seeing their main investments
    in commercial real estate contracting as mentioned earlier in this report.


    The US Deflation Crash Goes Global:


    As also mentioned earlier, across the world from China to Australia to Europe and Russia there are
    myriads of financial institutions which have already made their own representations to the US Treasury as
    well as to Congress and the Bush Administration. They are now placing demands to be compensated for
    the enormous losses which they see ahead. There is NO way for the US to make such compensation.


    Lend And Borrow Faster Or The US Will CRASH:


    As this Global Report makes clear, and on the latest full factual grounds, the US is engaged in an
    enormous overstretch both geo-strategically and geo-economically. The American public is the elastic in
    the middle. Economically, their lives are being torn apart by the tragic fall in valuations of their
    investments in everything from houses to stocks to cash money. Yes, US cash money has lost 5.6 percent
    in purchasing power in a month as US consumer prices climb while wages and salaries are not climbing.


    Geo-strategically, the US military machine is concentrating six US carrier task forces in or close to the
    Persian Gulf, a concentration of military might not seen in the Middle East since the US lined up for its
    attack on Iraq more than five years ago. In the Black Sea close to Georgia, there are now US and NATO
    ships nose-to-nose with the Russian main Black Sea fleet. These military moves could easily blow up.
    :whistling:


    more >>>>

  • >>>>
    A US “Flight Ahead” - In Opposite Directions:


    In military history there are many events which are known as a “flight ahead”. This is a technique used
    by desperate military leaders who know that they are in a position where they cannot retreat because a
    retreat would destroy them. Cortez staged a “flight ahead” after he arrived in Mexico when he burned the
    boats behind him. After that, his small force had to advance and win. Historically, most of these attempts
    have ingloriously failed because the opposing force saw it coming and retreated until the flight ahead
    exhausted itself. Only then did they counter-attack, usually to inflict a catastrophic defeat. Militarily, the
    US is today in the same position with its main land force tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan. This
    situation is fully understood by Russia which had no inhibitions to “counter-attack’ in the Caucasus.
    Economically, fiscally and monetarily inside the US, the situation is the same. Even though the US is
    going backwards here, the “flight ahead” syndrome is still to the fore. Today, every type of financial
    expedient and stimulant is being tried to avoid the accumulated consequences of the outrageous credit
    expansions which led to financial and market bubbles and huge US external debts running parallel to a
    falling US Dollar. This US double stretch is nearing its breaking point.


    The Last US “Option”:


    The last “option” left to the Bush Administration is to try to regain the global strategic initiative by
    making a full-scale attack upon Iran.
    True, any such move would be strategic folly of truly historic
    dimensions. That is far from certain to constrain the present Bush Administration. What IS certain is that
    any such attack would pull out from under the US the last of its remaining international standing. It is
    also certain that it would pull the last of the underpinnings out from under the US financial system as well
    as the US Dollar and act to cause a global depression of awe-inspiring depth and duration. A “flight
    ahead” would destroy what still remains of the US economy. And so would a US military retreat.
    The US is walking on a ledge with an economic crash on one side and a strategic defeat on the other.


    As of August 28, with a month to go in the fiscal year, the US Treasury’s debt subject to limit had
    increased by $US 663 Billion since October 1, 2007.
    :wacko:
    Over the month since July 30, when the Treasury’s
    debt limit was raised by $US 800 Billion to $US 10.615 TRILLION, it has increased by $US 116 Billion.
    During the previous month, the month of July 2008, the Treasury’s officially admitted-to debt increased
    by $US 102.77 Billion. This insane financial profligacy has staved off, for now, the deflationary impact
    of the contraction of bank lending and consumer spending which normally fuels US economic “growth”.
    Mr Obama’s acceptance speech as the Democratic Presidential candidate in the upcoming election was as
    predictable as it was depressing. “Middle America” is suffering. Don’t worry, we’ll spend our way back
    to prosperity and we’ll do it all for you. That was the gist of it.


    As The Privateer has said many times in
    the past, the American people do get to vote but they don’t get to pick who to vote for. The US political
    (and financial) establishment does that and nobody who would in any way rock the boat gets past them.
    Over the past 11 months, the US government has borrowed nearly $US 700 Billion.
    In the two months since the beginning of July, they have borrowed well in excess of $US 200 Billion of that.
    also nationalised in all but name the entire US mortgage industry in the form of Fannie and Freddie. The
    most conservative REAL estimates of what that will eventually cost US taxpayers now exceeds


    $US 1 TRILLION. A complete takeover, which is a distinct possibility, would cost in the region of
    $US 5.3 TRILLION.


    In fact, the possibility that the Treasury will be left holding the entire “bag” has
    grown substantially over recent weeks as reports proliferate that Asian investors in general and the
    Chinese in particular are now actually selling down their huge holdings of US “Agency” debt paper.

  • Wahnsinn diese Schulden von den Amis, einfach endlos !
    Das Geld haette ich gerne, ich wuerde noch mehr EM kaufen. :D
    Sicher kriegen meine Amigos hier auch was ab.
    Wenn das ewig funktioniert, warum nicht in Zimbabwe oder wie damals in der Weimarer Republik. :hae:
    Gleich sind wir wieder ueber 800 USD POG...don't worry be happy !

  • alle leute reden von einer kommenden rezession - ist es da nicht logisch, dass der goldpreis weiter sinken wird? der inflationsschutz ist dann ja praktisch nichtmehr gegeben (logisch, ohne inflation)
    da hätte man die nächsten jahre natürlich viel zeit nachzukaufen, bis die rezession vorbei wäre um dann wieder vom gelben ünzchen zu profitieren.


    oder wie seht ihr das?


    Sehe ich auch so. Solange das System stabil ist, bleibt alles innerhalb der Rahmenbedingungen und das Vertrauen in die diversen Papierversprechungen und Papierschuldscheine bleibt prinzipiell erhalten.
    Und solange dieses Grundvertrauen vorhanden ist, solange wirken die Regel- und Manipulationsmechanismen der Geldschöpfer.

  • Danke für den guten Beitrag Eldo!


    Fannie has about $US 120 Billion of debt maturing through September 30 while Freddie has $US 103 Billion due, according to the figures provided by the companies.


    D.h. es werden am 30.9.2008 bei Fannie 120 Mrd. USD und bei Freddie 103 Mrd. USD fällig und sie wissen nicht wie sie die Schulden begleichen sollen! Der Crash wird nicht lustig werden.


    Hat jemand zufällig einen Link parat über die Höhe der Gesamtverschuldung der USA und von Fannie und Freddie?


  • oh, ein Goldexperte.


    Eine Frage: wenn GOLD doch historisch betrachtet so hoch bewertet ist, warum hast Du dann welches gekauft?


    Warum bist Du dann hie rund verschwendest Deine Zeit mit uns?


    Freue Dich doch, und kaufe billigst Aktien, wenn Du meinst, daß die so günstig sind. Beeile Dich, sonst steigen sie Dir noch davon :)


    Und vergiss nicht, Dein Gold zu verkaufen. Noch kriegst etwa 560 EUR/Unze. Hier im Forum sogar noch etwas mehr...


    Also: verkaufe. Jetzt.


    Ich bin total zufrieden. Der Goldkurs steht ganz genau da, wo er stehen soll. Da habe ich Null Problem damit. Sobald ich wieder etwas Geld habe, kaufe ich. Mir ist es egal, was Andere machen. Jeder soll ruhig sein Ding machen. Dann aber auch konsequent.


    Aber warum kommen Dir denn am Schluss die Tränen?


    Weil Gold so teuer ist, wie Du schreibst, oder weil es im Vergleich zu Dax, Dow & Co. angeblich spottbilg ist?


    Erklärs mir bitte.

  • Irgendwann wird sehr viel Fiatgeld das wenige Gold was da ist oder andere Sachwerte kaufen und die Preise werden explodieren.


    Zu viel Fiatgeld das Schutz bald sucht, wenig Sachwerte wie Gold z.B.


    Bevor dies geschehen kann, muss sich das Misstrauen jedoch gegen FIatgeld generell stark ausweiten. Niemand vermag zu sagen, wann und ob das überhaupt geschehen wird.


    Im Moment muss Big Money immer noch nur zur halbwegs rechten Zeit von einer Währung in die andere umschichten, um schöne Gewinne einzufahren. Es war ein Kinderspiel in den letzten 2 Jahren, den Dollar zu shorten und Rohstoffe long zu gehen. Nun sprudeln die Gewinne in die andere Richtung. Die Banken im €-Raum werden in den kommenden Jahren ca. € 4,5 Billionen gehebelte Verschuldung abarbeiten müssen, um ungefähr auf die Höhe des historisch durchschnittlichen Verschuldungsgrades zurückzukommen. Dies wird den € schwer in Schach halten.


    Nur in einer heftigen umfassenden FIAT-Panik wird das Gold davon stark profitieren können. Noch hängt es unglaublich deutlich an Dollar/Euro/Öl. Ein Globaler Run aufs Gold wird erst geschehen, wenn riesige neue Staatsprogramme mit dem dazugehörenden neuen Gelddrucken in Kraft treten sollten. Umgekehrt war es aber z.B. in der vergangenen Woche so, dass man allein mit Fannie Mae 80% nach oben hin hätte machen können, die angeschlagenen Kreditversicherer Ambac & Co sind inzwischen schon wieder 300% und mehr von ihren Tiefstständen weg. Auch hier gilt also: Expect the unexpected.


    Wer kann sich überhaupt noch abbezahltes Gold ohne Margin leisten? Die Araber natürlich. Der abgelaufene August hat in Abu Dhabi alle Rekorde gesprengt. Es war für die Goldhändler der beste Monat seit 30 Jahren. Die Wüstensöhne haben Zeit und warten geduldig auf günstige Preise, und die haben sie nun bekommen:


    By Reuters on Tuesday, September 02, 2008


    Gold jewellery sales in Abu Dhabi soared 300 per cent in volume and almost 250 per cent in value in August from a year earlier after the metal dropped to nine-month lows, the emirate’s industry group said yesterday


    “It was the best month the market has seen in almost 30 years and it compensated for any drops we have seen earlier this year,” said Abu Dhabi Gold and Jewellery Group Chairman Tushar Patni.


    “We had never expected that if gold fell below $800 an ounce we would see a 300 per cent increase in volume and 250 per cent in value, especially as many buyers are abroad on holiday.”


    The emirate’s gold demand was steady in July, as many buyers, mainly from the Indian Subcontinent, headed home for the summer holidays. Gold dropped to a nine-month low of about $773 an ounce in mid-August before bouncing back, but it still has been trading far below its all-time high of almost $1,030.80 an ounce, hit in March.


    grüsse
    auratico

  • Mc Cain ist weg vom Fenster.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new…n-independence-party.html


    __________________


    Und ein lustiges Interview mit Wellershoff von der UBS
    ...
    Die USA fallen ihm nach "in ein flaches Loch". :D


    http://www.nzz.ch/finanzen/web…18067.html?video=1.821731



    Gruß,
    gutso


    PPS: mesodor stimme ich zu, denn Kaufpreise bei Edelmetallen sind langfristig alle Einbrüche beim jeweiligen Preis.
    Im Mittel sind überall die Geldmengen bereits weit vorgelaufen - gerade im US Dollarraum und die Kaufkraft der Währungen wird dementsprechend irgendwann verpuffen müssen ... .

  • Gutso, den hast aber nicht gelesen.


    ..McCain now has an even chance of winning the presidency - despite the surrounding political environment of a 10- to 15-point "generic" lead for the Democrats over Republicans in national polls and the impressive levels of unpopularity attained by President George W. Bush.


    As this paradox suggests, McCain's main appeal to the voters is not policy but personality.
    For many, his biography is his real qualification for the presidency.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opi…ion/2008/09/02/do0205.xml


    Logisch, ein Republican muss her, die sind viel kriegslustiger und koennen Bush sein Werk vollenden.... WW3 :(


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iKuMVqht4U


  • ... die Tränen kommen mir deshalb, weil Gold im historischen Vergleich lediglich den Inflationsausgleich geschafft hat und mehr nicht. In 100 Jahren also nix dazu gewonnen. Und bitte komme mir doch keiner, ja aber in den letzten 5 Jahren ... dann nimm doch bitteschön mal die letzten 28 Jahre. Man kann in jedem Chart gewinnbringende Zeitphasen suchen und finden - im nachhinein.


    Nochmals, Gold steht zur Zeit inflationsbereinigt auf dem Niveau wie vor 100 Jahren, nur knapp darüber. Von dem Krisenmetall hätte ich etwas anderes erwartet. Besonders bei den momentanen schlechten News zu Wirtschaft, Politik, Inflation, Krisen, etc ... hätte ich gedacht dass Gold steigt und nicht fällt. Und natürlich habe ich auch Gold, sonst wäre es mir ja egal was Gold macht und ich wäre bestimmt nicht hier in diesem Forum. Ich bin eben enttäuscht von Gold und wenn das hier einige wie ich sehe nicht akzeptieren wollen, dann kann ich auch nichts dafür. Aber ich habe schon bemerkt, dass besonders hier im Goldforum eine eigene Meinung vorherrscht, um nicht zu sagen Weltuntergangsstimmung.


    Nochmals und das ist fakt: Gold hat in 100 Jahren inflationsbereinigt Faktor 1x gemacht, steht also dort wo es vor 100 Jahren gestanden hat, damals bei 20 USD heute bei 796 USD, oder zurückgerechnet damals bei 500 USD und heute bei 796 USD. Der Dow Jones hat im gleichen Zeitraum inflationsbereinigt Faktor 25x gemacht ! Wo liegt da bitteschön der Gewinn beim Gold? Kann mir das mal einer plausibel erklären?

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    (....)
    (....)
    IMO die von Dir erwaehnte Fiat Panik kommt bald.... ich hoffe ich habe noch Luft bis dort hin.
    (....)


    Zu1: Ja, jedenfalls zu hoffen.
    Zu2: Dir sehr zu wünschen.


    Hilft Dir zwar nicht, vielleicht aber doch etwas:
    Habe vorhin einen Goldcall, langlaufend zugekauft.


    Mesodor, bitte wegsehen :) : rd 2,5 % des Depots......
    Die Calls sind meine besten Investments 2008.
    Wenn man nicht darauf hockt, Trading..... ^^


    Grüsse


    "Die Märkte haben nie unrecht, die Menschen oft." Jesse Livermore, 20.Jh.


    "Die Demokratie ist das Paradies der Schreier und Schwätzer, Phraseure, Schmeichler und Schmarotzer, die jedem sachlichen Talent weit mehr den Weg verlegen, als dies in einer anderen Verfassungsform vorkommt." E.von Hartmann


    Dieser Beitrag ist eine persönliche Meinung gem. Art.5 Abs.1 GG und Urteil des BVG 1 BvR 1384/16


  • Eldo, kannst du mir den Link zu diesem Artikel schicken bzw. hier reinstellen? Vielen Dank. ;)

Schriftgröße:  A A A A A