Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

Eine etwas konservative Vorhersage:

RESOURCE INVESTOR: Where do you see gold by the end of the year when taking the dollar’s weakness into account? Any projections on where it will be in mid 2007?

JON NADLER: Our year-end target is still moderate, with an average $630 price as the 2006 target (though it still implies we could get to $690 next month) and $665 as the average for 2007. Then, a scale-back of averages from a projected $725 to $700 for 2008, and from $767 to $751 for 2009. But for 2010, we (as Credit Suisse) keep the forecast at $800 average.

Ich fand einen Beitrag auf Mineweb von einen Leser der mir zu denken gibt.

Yes the Gold ETF is a SCAM...BUT WHAT ABOUT THE SILVER ETF!!!
Body: Of course the gold ETF was established to rig the gold market. The banksters were having problems with their COMEX scam because 1) physical delivery was possible 2) the Commitment Of Trader reporting requirements were exposing the fraud and 3) Limited trading hours meant they couldn't use paper shorts 24 hours a day. The Gold ETF and CBOT is their fix and the Closure of the COMEX is soon at hand.

BUT NOW LOOK AT THE SILVER ETF! They must have really been on the edge of losing control. 1) JP Morgan is the trustee for the physical silver (which is a self explainatory asssurance of fraud) 2) Although JPM is in charge of the metal THEY ARE ONLY LIABLE FOR $1B!..NO SILVER! Who in their right mind would approve that??...The SEC, The CFTC AND EVERYONE ELSE IN ON THE MARKET RIGGING IN TODAY'S FARCE FREE MARKET!

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WGC gold ETF civil suit begins Dec. 6 in New York courtroom

By: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: '29-NOV-06 08:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2006

RENO, NV (Mineweb.com) --The civil suit involving a fund manager and the World Gold Council alleging the WGC Council of allegedly stealing his idea for gold ETF is scheduled to begin December 6 in a New York court.

Ascani and his firm Gemini Diversified Holdings sued the World Gold Council and the World Gold Trust Services for their alleged misappropriate of his concepts and methodology of an index-based gold fund and how to structure it. .... more

http://www.mineweb.net/gold_silver/483327.htm

Lesenswert:

http://silverstrategies.com/story.aspx?local=1&id=5744

Gold Mining Profits 2
Scott Wright
Zeal LLC
Dec 1, 2006

From Ben Bernanke:

Speaking on behalf of all the Fed members we thought it was time to honestly address the situation the country is facing. This is part of our new policy to be as candid and honest as possible. Quite frankly we are frightened by the rapid falloff in housing permits, the rise in jobless claims, the rise in inventories, and the slowdown in consumer spending. It now appears the landing is not going to be soft and it is also doubtful the financial markets are fully prepared for it.

This slowdown in jobs and wages could not have come at a worse time because consumers are cash strapped already. We now forecast a downward spiral in construction jobs that will spill over into other segments of the economy resulting in additional losses in wages and jobs. Compounding the problem is the fact that many home buyers took the advice of former chairman Greenspan by taking out adjustable rate mortgages with teaser rates that are now about ready to be reset.
Unfortunately we can’t start cutting interest rates just yet because we are also frightened by the massive speculation in the financial markets with stock buybacks, mergers, leveraged buyouts, and trillions of dollars in derivatives floating around some of which we do not even know who the ultimate guarantor is.

We are hoping but do not know that the ultimate guarantor of these derivatives is not Madame Merriweather's Mud Hut in Malaysia.
We do not want to fuel further speculation in the equity markets so we have decided to do nothing for as long as possible. Another reason for doing nothing right now is the rapid fall in the US dollar. This frightens us too :(.

All in all, we have decided the best policy decision is to do nothing while hoping that things get better. Please bear in mind, however, that hope is unlikely to work.
Many financial analysts have suggested that corporate spending will take the place of consumer spending when the consumer is finally tapped out. That can’t and won’t happen. Businesses have no reason to expand headed into a consumer led recession. But instead of wisely holding cash for the rough times ahead, businesses have been spending it on stock buybacks at an all time record pace. As you might guess, this further frightens us.
That we are frightened by so many things is clearly visible in the price of gold. In fact, we really have been trying to figure out why the price of gold isn't much higher given how frightened we are. ....This is indeed our latest conundrum.

In the past we have avoided talking about such issues because of fear that we might simultaneously prick the bubble in houses and the bubble in the equity markets.

Careful analysis, however, shows that the average consumer is benefiting from the rise in equity markets as much as he benefited from the $34 billion in bonuses that Wall Street just handed out (which is another way of saying not at all). Real wages have been falling for the average guy on the street and that is shown by 19 consecutive months of negative savings rates, which is of course still another thing we are frightened by.

Make no mistake about it, a recession is where we are headed. We admit our role in fueling these bubbles by holding interest rates too low too long. Rather that attempt to cover up past mistakes our new policy at the Fed is honesty, and honestly we really do not know what to do. When we do decide what to do, we will tip off the banks first (just as we always have) because our biggest fear of all is a collapse of the banking system.

Ben Bernanke

http://howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=3418

Zitat

Original von Saccard

Mal ehrlich: Gold und Silber lohnen sich langfristig nun wirklich nicht.

Sie lohnen sich kurzfristig zur Spekulation.

Mittelfristig unter bestimtmen Umständen.. ja.

Doch diese Umstände bedingen, daß Gold oder Silber ihre Funktion nur erfüllen können, wenn man sie auch wirklich physisch vorliegen hat. Wieso sollte man freiwillig auf den größten Vorteil verzichten??

Also sind ETFs purer Quatsch, vielleicht für Pensionsfonds geeignet

Gruß
S..

Alles anzeigen

Hallo Saccard

Hast wieder einen Fiat Anfall bekommen ?

....Ok, nimm weiter deine T-Bonds und Fiat Geld mit Renditen die unter der inoffiziellen Inflationsrate sind.
Mit dem Schrott hast du dich kurzfristig ja schoen verbrannt seit September/Oktober wo ich Dir Gold angeraten habe und sagte hau die US-Bonds raus bei 570-590 POG.

Ich bleibe jedenfalls bei physischen Gold und EM Aktien, die ETF's (Handelsplattform) nehme ich nur zum traden her falls ich Gold verkaufen will ohne das ich mein physisches anfasse....so bei 1000 USD oder mehr... ....um dann meine Schulden zu decken ... wenn der Tag da ist.

Btw, ich habe nun alle meine USD miese vorgesten mit CHF ausgeglichen mit 2.55% Zinsen, ob das gut geht weiss ich nicht.
YEN ware auch eine Moeglichkeit gewesen, habe mich fuer CHF entschieden.

Hauptsaechlich bin ich im CAD mit den Aktien in Kanada.

Ich habe z.Zt. 43% Leverage, sehr hoch, zeigt aber meinen Optimismus fuer Gold, Silber, Rohstoffe die nur steigen koennen in dem Scenario."
Falls es knapp wird, dann Bye Bye ETF oder gutlaufende Aktien.

Mit der Taktik die sehr gefaehrlich ist habe ich meinen Nettoeinsatz verzehnfacht in 10 Jahren...not bad !

Mit Silber,Gold und Uran !!.... not with Bonds und Sparkassen Zinsen.

6.5% Zinsen auf dem USD waren mir zu hoch die Schulden zu decken.
Ich habe nun 9000 USD im Plus :D..die gebe ich auch noch aus, diese Schrottwaehrung muss weg.

Gold wird wahrscheinlich hoeher in CHF sein in einem Jahr.IMO

Die ETF's stiegen mehr als die Zinsen die ich bezahle muss, darum !...da verdiene ich noch dabei und die Belehnung ist hoeher als bei Aktien.

Von den Banken die ETF's verkaufen werde ich nie Gold oder Silber beziehen, hatte auch nie die Absicht oder die Erwartung.

Use the USD and buy Gold.... :).. this may work.
Bonds rahmt man ein und schaut zu wie sie wertlos werden.
Das sagt auch Marc Faber.

Jeder hat einen anderen Zeitraum was kurzfristig, mittelfistig,langfristig ist.

Anyway, good luck to you and no bad feelings !

I am a Goldbug, you appear not to be, make up your mind once and for all and don't jump around in between, again !

Read the posting above....Fiat will collapse and Gold/Silver goes to the moon.

Still interested in Bonds or Fiat Money ??

I AM NOT , I PROTECT MYSELF FOR THE LONG/MIDDLE/SHORT RUN !

WITH........

Linar, ich weiss das, bis auf AXM.V NUS.V habe ich alle ebenfalls empfohlen im Junior thread.

Ich halte sie alle, bei RMX.TO gibt es zwei gartis spin-off's in kuerze.
SWG hat nun die ersten Bohrergebnisse raus, ein Elefant lauft langsam.

Gruss

Eldo

linar

Danke, jetzt bin ich beruhigt das Embry sie auch hat.
AXM.V ist in Afrika, nein danke !
Nautilus hoert sich wie ein U-Boot an.

@ Saccard

Freut mich das du dich von den Bonds und USD verabschiedest.
Aber warum kaufst nun die DJ Aktien wie Pfizer ? die fallen doch im Dow Crash mit der vor der Tuer steht,... oder taeusche ich mich da.
Auch wenn die gut laufen und Profit machen, der crash kann die runterhaun trozt der Ergebnisse.
Viagra laeuft auch bestens.... :D..wer es braucht !
Ich halte fast gar keine Dax oder DJ oder Nasdaq Aktien mehr.
Wie waere es mit DJ puts mit deinen USD ?
Ich habe noch vor ein paar Tagen die Minefinder nachgeladen von der du ueberzeugt bist wenn ich mich nicht irre.
Das mit dem CHF kann gut oder schlecht laufen, trotzdem vielen Dank, nun bin ich auch mit dem Deal gelassener.
Ich nahm CHF fuer USD weil beim Euro sind die Zinsen hoeher.

Cheers, ich hau mich nun aufs Ohr, die naechste Woche wird interessant werden.
Ich warte ertsmal ab ob der Dollar ueber die 83 klettern kann oder weiter nach 80 geht wo der grosse Test stattfindet und sein Schicksal besiegelt ist wenn er darunter geht.

Gnight

Eldo

Good Morning, Saccard

Meinst die Leute habe noch so viel Geld uebrig um ins Casino zu gehen und rauchen bei der Anti Smoking Gesellschaft .
Double Wammy, not Sega Sammy.
Na ja,.....wie du sagst...Bei Tabak, Casinos, Spielgeräten, Geldverleih und sonstigen dubiosen Geschäften kann ich nie widerstehen..

Good Luck to you, sage ich nur.
Bist schon wieder beim Kautabak, den wurde ich heute auch verkaufen lieber Saccard.

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The Daily Reckoning - Weekend Edition
December 2-3, 2006
Baltimore, Maryland
by Kate "Short Fuse" Incontrera

VIEWS FROM THE FUSE: AN ECONOMY ON THE EDGE

It looked like we were off to a good start this week - the
post-Thanksgiving weekend data showed that U.S. shoppers spent 19% more
during the holiday weekend than they did last year. Consumer confidence is
at a 15-month high, gas prices are down, and U.S. unemployment is at its
lowest in five years.

And then...the bad news started to roll in...the U.S. inflation figures
that were released Thursday showed that inflation remains "stubbornly
high," according to the Fed's favored inflation measure.

"Ben Bernanke," reports the FT, "made clear this week that persistent
price pressures might prompt the central bank to raise interest rates in
the year ahead, even though many investors expect a cut in the coming months."

And Big Ben isn't the only one with problems looming overhead - U.S.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson faces the challenge of tempering the
dollar's decline...and it does not look like that will be an easy feat.

On Friday, the greenback fell to a 20-month low against the euro, and a
14-year low against the sterling. This is the biggest decline since 2001,
following the September 11 attacks - and takes the dollar's fall since the
beginning of 2006 to 14%.

Ouch. Of course, there are many varying opinions of what is causing the
dollar's tumble. Do we blame the faltering housing market, where
homebuilding has recorded a drop for the seventh straight month? Or could
is this consistent with a deeper problem - is our economy just slowing
down more than anyone accounted for?

Or could it be that a "severe and persistent trade deficit - now set to
hit $860 billion or 6.6% of GDP this year - has a made such a slide
inevitable, and will herald a broader and irreversible decline in the
currency of an economy losing its potency and dominance," as one Scottish
paper suggests?

We're not sure - but loading up on gold and hunkering down in the
Mogambo's bunker is looking more and more tempting.

Short Fuse

The Daily Reckoning

Le Metropole Members,

Mark Thompson has served commentary at The Toulouse-Lautrec
Table titled,

"THE HUI GOLD BUGS INDEX ELLIOT WAVE COUNT TO 2304."

"Are hurricane force winds in the gold and silver
markets approaching the U.S. coastline?

If our Elliot Wave count of the HUI gold index is correct the hurricane
force winds are very close to landfall.
We believe that the HUI index is entering Big Wave 3 of Intermediate Wave 3 of Minor Wave 3 and should be the most explosive move
for the metal stocks."

Our assumptions are:

1. The move from 35 to 258 was Big Wave 1; it was 223 points and was a gain of 7.37 times.

2. Big Wave 2 corrected from 258 to 163 and that was a 36% correction.

3. We have assumed that Big Wave 1 was 7.37 times and that Big Wave 3 would be the same length in percentage terms. In Elliot theory Wave 1 cannot be the shortest wave.

4. For Big Wave 5 we used the Fibonacci number 3 as the length of the final wave from 768 to 2304.

OUR WAVE COUNT FOR THE HUI INDEX FROM NOV. 2000 TO NOV. 2010.

BIG WAVES 1 to 5:

1. 35 – 258 = 223 points 7.37 times gain (actual)

2. 258 – 163 = 95 points 36% correction (actual)

3. 163 – 1201 = 1038 points 7.37 times gain (assumption)

4. 1201 – 768 = 433 points 36% correction (assumption)

5. 768 – 2304 = 1536 points Fibonacci 3 times (assumption)

To clarify how we derived at these numbers we have broken down the individual waves.

BIG WAVE (1) 223 POINTS +/- 763 DAYS (SEE CHART)

INTERMEDIATE WAVES 1 to 5:

1. 35 – 79 = 44 points 127 days (+/- 1) 2.25 times

2. 79 – 59 = 20 points 127 days (+/- 1) 25% correction

3. 59 – 154 = 95 points 130 days 2.61 times

4. 154 – 92 = 62 points 195 days 40% correction

5. 92 – 258 = 166 points 184 days 2.80 times

BIG WAVE (2) 95 POINTS 36% CORRECTION 363 DAYS
A. 258 – 163 = 95 108 days

B. 163 – 250 = 87 133 days

C. 250 – 165 = 85 122 days

For Intermediate waves 3, 4 and 5 we have used the same percentage moves as the intermediate waves of Big Wave 1.

BIG WAVE (3) 1038 POINTS
INTERMEDIATE WAVES 1 to 5:

1. 165 – 401 = 236 2.43 times 246 days (actual)

2. 401 – 274 = 127 31% correction 101 days (actual)

3. 274 – 715 = 441 2.61 times (assumption)

4. 715 – 429 = 286 40% correction (assumption)

5. 429 – 1201 = 772 2.80 times (assumption)

BIG WAVE 4
1201 – 768 = 433 points 36% correction (assuming that big wave 2 and big wave 4 are the same in percentage terms).

BIG WAVE 5
768 – 2304 = 1536 points 3 times (assumption using the Fibonacci number of 3).

So if our Elliot wave count and assumptions are correct the HUI should approach the 2304 area in 2010. We have used a lot of assumptions but to project an Elliot Wave target assumptions are needed.

The other way we would like to look at our Elliot Wave target of 2304 is from a valuation basis i.e. what would it take for the HUI to get to 2304.

Currently the HUI index consists of 15 of the top gold producing companies that do not hedge their production.

With the HUI trading at 329 a move to 2304 would be seven fold. With the market capitalization of the HUI 15 gold stocks, trading at $90 billion, at 2304 the market cap on the HUI would be $630 billion. That would be the combined market cap of just two companies Exxon ($428 market cap) and Proctor & Gamble ($202 Market cap) for a total of $630 billion (See list of HUI 15).

We have enclosed a list of the HUI 15 stocks with the market caps. Lists of the top 20 U.S companies and the XOI oil index are enclosed as well.

The HUI has 15 stocks in it, the XOI oil index has 13 stocks in it and the oil index is 18 times bigger in market cap; $1622 versus $90 billion. The HUI market cap is still 20 billion less than the 20th largest company in the U.S. which is Coca Cola with a $110 billion market cap.

We have also included the GDM Gold Index which includes 41 of the main producing gold mines in the world with a total market cap of $149 billion.

So to conclude if our Elliot Wave count and our assumptions are correct the HUI should start accelerating soon. There is no fever like gold fever and if investors started moving money into the gold stocks, a $630 billion market value could be attainable. If the HUI broke the 200 to 220 mark we would have to reconsider our wave count.