Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I


    Zum Gold: In unserem Börsenbrief bilden wir einen Goldchart mit seinen Fibonacci-Zusammenhängen ab. Ferner beschrieben wir einen etwa acht Jahre langen Goldzyklus. Der letzte startete 1999 bei rund 250 Dollar pro Feinunze, erreichte in der Spitze eine Verdreifachung des Goldpreises und ging wahrscheinlich mit dem Tief vom 4. Oktober 2006 zu Ende. Im anschliessenden Anstieg sagten wir aus heutiger Sicht richtig für etwa Mitte Dezember 2006 ein erstes Zwischentief voraus. Ferner ist in diesem weiteren ca. 8 Jahre langen Zyklus das im Text oben erwähnte Hoch bei etwa 3200 Dollar pro Feinunze zu erwarten. Der Hintergrund ist eine exponentiell ansteigende Inflation, die insbesondere die Sparer und die Käufer von Anleihen enteignet und deren wahres Ausmass seit Jahren massiv verfälscht wird. Das inflationsbereinigte reale Bruttosozialprodukt ist deshalb erheblich negativ und nicht, wie in allen Medien einheitlich dargestellt, im positiven Bereich.
    Uns ist kein anderer Börsenanalyst bekannt, dem es gelingt, die Auf- und Abwärtsbewegungen des Goldes derart mit Hilfe der Zyklik zu begründen.


    ...Demnach lief der “Q-Faktor” während der drei dargestellten Abstürze 21 Jahre, 20 und 16 Jahre lang hinunter. Die drei Erholungsphasen dauerten 9 Jahre, 16 und 19 Jahre. So gesehen kann der Absturz nach dem Kursgipfel in 2001, wenn man berücksichtigt, dass die Abstürze immer schneller werden, etwa 17 Jahre andauern.
    ...


    w*w.bogen-gmbh.de ;) Bogen meint, dass es bis 2017/18 in der Wirtschaft bergab gehen wird...


    Das sagt ja auch der Optimist bei Financialsense: ---> http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2005/0706b.html


    Eichelburg induziert die Hyperinflation (schießt aber zu schnell)---> 50000$/oz


    Ein FROHES FEST wünscht Homm13 :D


    P.S Wie man sieht muß man nur Geduld haben, denn so ein Zyklus dauert Jahre... und ist nicht deswegen vorbei, weil der Kurs mal ein bisschen korrigiert...

    "Ess und trink so lang Dir´s schmeckt scho 2mal ist uns´s Geld verreckt!"; "Steuerbetrug ist der strafbare Versuch des Steuerpflichtigen den legalisierten Diebstahl durch die Herrschenden zu verhindern." "Goldpreis = Gold/Vertrauen in die Geldwertstabilität."

    7 Mal editiert, zuletzt von Homm13 ()

    Hallo Homm13


    Und jetzt bringen wir das alles in die Reihe, es ist alles sehr aehnlich.
    Ich gehe davon aus das wir sicherlich einen 8 Jahres Cycle haben und die Hausse mindestens bis 2014 geht.


    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/chapmand122206.html


    Nun Astrology von Mr. Wong:


    Forecast on World Hyperinflation
    (Readers are advised to verify the data presented and draw their own conclusions).


    High inflation is evident from end 2005 on [Neptune Opposition Saturn] along Aquarius-Leo (Note 9) which ushers in a sustained period of high commodity prices. It gathers momentum in 2006.


    Hyperinflation escalates in 2007. [Uranus Conjunction North Node] in Pisces (Note 10) is followed by [Sat Opposition North Node] along Virgo-Pisces (Note 11).


    The gap (absence of inflationary aspects) in 2008 of 9 months (January-September) may mean temporary cessation or deceleration of price increases (See Note 3 for comparison). As the gap is narrow, adjustment if any will be mild.


    Hyperinflation rages from October 2008 to October 2009 on root cause [Uranus Opposition Saturn] along Pisces-Virgo (Note 12).


    From April 2009, deflationary forces are emitted from [Neptune Conjunction Jupiter] in Aquarius (Note 13), to counteract inflation. Jupiter shows its prowess by lining up with Neptune, but it does not confront the root cause. Interpretation: lack of resolve by US Government in 2009 to tackle Hyperinflation although she intervenes in the financial markets.


    By the end of 2009, the US dollar is reduced to ashes, and Gold soars to stratosphere.


    Y. T. Wong
    Hong Kong, 4 March, 2004


    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/wong/wong030504.html

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Nicht nur Van Eeden, sondern auch Chapman ist üblicherweise recht konservativ in seinen Aussagen.
    Umso interessanter ein Auszug aus dem vorerwähnten Artikel von ihm, besonders bezüglich Silber:



    "....the next move in gold could be spectacular. Based on the current triangle pattern that appears to be forming, a move to $1,000 is not out of the question - quite possibly in 2007.


    Silver cycles are very similar although they do not necessarily overlap with gold. Silver may have already hit its cycle trough back in September 2006. Silver should target up to $20-$22 in 2007 8) if the triangular patterns prove correct...."



    Der Artikel von Wong ist auch bemerkenswert, immerhin aus 2004, selbst wenn man einige Details als nicht so wahrscheinlich ansehen sollte.


    Die 8 - 8 1/2 Jahreszyklen traten tatsächlich in den letzten zig Jahren ein.


    Grüsse
    Edel Man


    "Die Märkte haben nie unrecht, die Menschen oft." Jesse Livermore, 20.Jh.

    "Die Demokratie ist das Paradies der Schreier und Schwätzer, Phraseure, Schmeichler und Schmarotzer, die jedem sachlichen Talent weit mehr den Weg verlegen, als dies in einer anderen Verfassungsform vorkommt." E.von Hartmann

    Dieser Beitrag ist eine persönliche Meinung gem. Art.5 Abs.1 GG und Urteil des BVG 1 BvR 1384/16

    Edel, ich schaetze so Juni/Juli 2007 geht das Fiasko mit dem Dollar los.


    Entweder 82 oder 80 USD/IDX bye- bye, and south to 71 gradually over the next two years.


    Hier was Mr.Lo :rolleyes:..sagt ueber 2007:


    Years ending with the number seven have a track record of stock market disaster.


    Lo warns, referring to the 1987 Wall Street crash and the Asian financial crisis that struck a decade later.


    "You have to be very careful, the worst could be October ... but it won't be as bad as 1997," he said.


    There will be turbulence, there will be fights, there will be explosions and clashes.


    It's also a year of ""evolution."


    "Asia is comparatively stable, the bad energy is in the North next year, so therefore America and those (Western) countries will more easily have natural disasters and other problems." :rolleyes:


    He also believes a "sick" energy might arise.


    "Something we have to be careful of is sickness and health problems. Epidemics could come. .....End



    .....beim USD bestimmt, Zeit wirds das die Manipulators vom PPT Bauchweh kriegen.



    XEX....zum Glueck sind wir ein Goldbug. :)..Gold brennt nicht so schnell wie der Dollar.

    Whiskey & Gunpowder
    December 21, 2006
    by Dr. Marc Faber
    Chiangmai, Thailand



    Will the U.S. Become a Banana Republic?



    Now, I am not insinuating that the US is already a banana republic, but the trend is undoubtedly there. :D


    The physical infrastructure is more often than not totally insufficient. Not a single flight I took in the US was on time, with one arriving 10 hours late, another 12 hours late, while two were cancelled altogether, resulting in delays of more than 4 hours. In Philadelphia, my US Air flight was delayed by three hours. The plane was on the ground in front of us, the pilots were all present, as well as one flight attendant (air hostess). But because a second flight attendant was unavailable in Philadelphia, one had to be flown in from Washington, so delaying my flight. Since there was no service provided on the flight, I wondered what purpose the additional attendant might have served.


    Thomas Friedman expressed the view that if the Republicans had remained in control of the House and the Senate, the US would have become a banana republic. But a banana republic isn't characterised only by a rotten political system, ruled by a small, wealthy, and corrupt clique usually put in power or supported by foreign interests (in the 20th century, in the case of several Central and Latin American countries, by the US), but also by huge wealth and income inequities, poor infrastructure, backwardness in many sectors of the economy, low capital spending, a reliance on foreign capital, money printing and budget deficits, and of course a weakening currency.


    A banana republic is also characterised by a ruling class that curtails people's personal freedoms and is moving towards a heavyhanded military dictatorship under the excuse of fighting guerrilla (or terrorist) opposition groups or enemies. Moreover, the fact that the ruling class or the elite comes from different political parties isn't a relevant factor in classifying a country as a banana republic; what is relevant is the determination of the elite, irrespective of which party its members belong to, to shift wealth from the majority of the people (the masses) to themselves, usually through simply printing money and incurring chronic budget deficits, and frequently also through senseless warfare.....



    INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS


    From our remarks about the polarisation of wealth in the US, one could construe that the typical household in the US is vulnerable, whereas the type of people who make the Forbes list of the 400 wealthiest Americans will continue to thrive. (I could also be labelled as a socialist.) This would imply avoiding stocks such as Wal-Mart and Home Depot, and buying any company that has to do with the economy of the superrich, such as auction houses, brokerage stocks, publicly traded hedge and LBO funds, luxury goods retailers, and high-end hotel chains, or investing in top-end properties around the world. Indeed, if we compare the performance of luxury department stores to the performance of low-end stores, it is evident that the economy of the super-rich has done far better than that of the median household.


    However, when payback time comes, it is likely that the economy of the super-rich could be hurt rather badly. This would certainly be the case if Albert Edwards is correct and the "credit cycle is turning down". In the mid-1990s, Stephen Roach frequently wrote about a "workers' backlash". His view was that, in time, wages would rise, lifting the rate of inflation and depressing corporate profits. While this view was premature then, I wouldn't be surprised to see wage inflation accelerating and shifting some income back from Wall Street and corporations to the labour force. Such a shift would lead to higher inflation and have a negative impact on corporate profit margins, and on the valuation of bonds and equities.


    There is another point I should like to make about the economy of the super-rich. In the late 1980s, the super-rich did very well in Japan. In the mid-1990s, the super-rich creamed off all the money in Southeast Asia. Both periods were characterised by asset accumulators becoming rich and being highly leveraged. In both cases, subsequent events - the bear market in asset prices in Japan, and the Asian crisis - hurt the asset shufflers the most; ordinary people, especially those living in the countryside, were hardly affected. I suppose that if you have nothing, you have little to lose! Therefore, as a contrarian bet, I would look at shorting at some point companies that have benefited the most from the shift in wealth from the masses to the asset shufflers. Such a list would obviously include luxury retailers, the brokerage industry, asset management companies, and custody banks, all of which either arranged or benefited from this transfer of wealth and the asset inflation.


    The last few weeks have been characterised by a weak dollar and rising equity, bond, and commodity prices. As we move into 2007, the pattern will be the same. Either the Fed will finally decide to implement tight monetary policies, which would strengthen the US dollar and weaken all asset prices except bonds, or it will continue with its expansionary bias. In that case, asset prices will continue to rise and the dollar will continue to weaken. However, it should be understood that under easy monetary policies, dollar assets (US equities, bonds, and real estate) will, as has been the case for the last few years, underperform foreign assets and commodities. Since Mr. Bernanke was appointed Fed chairman, the S&P 500 is up by 14.6% in dollars, but only by 7.5% in Euro terms. Over the same time frame (November 1, 2005 to November 27, 2006), gold is up 40%, silver 80%, and copper 68%. Year-to-date, the S&P is up 11% in dollars but only up 0.2% in Euros and, of course, it is down against gold and silver. The worst investments were US dollar cash and bonds, both of which declined in value in both Euro and gold terms. Therefore, I advise investors who wish to have an equity exposure to overweight foreign markets, especially the Asian stock markets, and to significantly underweight US assets.


    Near term, asset markets are mostly over-extended and the contrarian play is to reduce exposure to all asset markets. Moreover, after its recent weakness, the dollar could stabilise, but a strong rally shouldn't be expected. Euro-area monetary and debt growth has been strong over the last 12 months and may force the European Central Bank to increase interest rates, which should support or even strengthen the Euro. Also, given the record short positions that exist in the Japanese Yen, I would consider buying Yen against the US dollar.


    As of late November, asset markets became extremely overbought. I recommend deferring any buying and to await the shape and the severity of the expected correction.


    I wish my readers a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. I would like all my readers to travel often to new places to see the world, to learn about other cultures, and to take an interest in other people's lives. I also hope that my more affluent readers know that giving money away isn't the only way to help those who are less fortunate. As the author Han Suyin (A Many Splendored Thing) observed, "There is nothing stronger in the world than gentleness." And as Abigail Van Buren remarked, "The best index to a person's character is how he treats people who can't do him any good, and how he treats people who can't fight back." At the same time, I hope that my readers enjoy their lives and have some fun and laughs. The famous and extremely popular golfer Chi Chi Rodriguez once said: "I was born broke, so I want to live like a millionaire and die poor; I don't want to live poor and die a millionaire." Mark Twain believed that, "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."


    At the same time, on a more sobering note, don't forget the words of Mahatma Mohandas K. Gandhi:


    "The things that will destroy us are: politics without principle; pleasure without conscience; wealth without work; knowledge without character; business without morality; science without humanity; and worship without sacrifice."


    Regards,
    Marc Faber


    http://www.whiskeyandgunpowder…chives/2006/20061221.html

    AN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS OF THE U.S. DOLLAR


    by Robert McHugh, Ph.D.
    December 23, 20006


    Check out this monster below — It tells you all you need to know about what the Fed has been doing with M-3. First of all, let’s examine the pattern. It is a Head and Shoulders top. These patterns are highly reliable. It is not yet a “confirmed” pattern, meaning until prices drop below the neckline decisively, say below 80.00 to 77.00 or so, the probability of the minimum target of 40.00ish being hit is not as great. However, should we see the Dollar drop down to 77.00ish, we are in a high risk situation of a devaluation of the dollar all the way down to 40.00. Not all at once, but over the course of several years. Perhaps all at once, should the government elect to flat-out issue an edict that a dollar is suddenly worth 50 cents.


    http://www.financialsense.com/…als/mchugh/2006/1223.html

    Aus Casey`s Gold Stock Companion



    BORING GOLD


    If gold doesn’t seem very exciting right now, it’s not just because your thoughts are focused more on holiday fun. We’ve just been through an exceptionally dull 31 days in the gold market.


    It’s not as though nothing has been going on in the world. There’s been news of a record U.S. trade deficit ($226 billion in the third quarter – a rate of a trillion dollars per year), the release of the Iraq Study Group report (summary: abandon all hope), an accelerating body count in Iraq (work for the next study group), the beginnings of a big U.S. naval build-up in the Persian Gulf, a 2% jump in U.S. wholesale prices and something or other about Britney Spears. Every one of those items (except the Britney one) might have carried a big punch for gold. But none of them did. After bumping around for 31 days, the price of gold was only $4 different from where it started – a change so small there’s no need to ask whether it was a plus or a minus.



    Stick around


    The last giant bull market in gold took nine years from start to finish, from the final abandonment of the gold standard in 1971, at $35 per ounce, to the $850 peak in 1980. It was a spectacular ride, but there were many dull months along the way. And sometimes the excitement was the unwelcome kind, such as an 18-month bull market intermission that began in 1975 and cut the price of gold nearly in half. The investors who held on so profitably did so because they understood the compelling reasons to expect gold to go higher -- much higher.


    This time around, the reasons are different, but just as compelling. You’ve heard them all before, and they seem indisputable when gold is rising. But now is a good time to review them, when gold is quiet and you may be asking yourself why you own all those stocks that almost no one else cares about. You own them because:


    1. Record trade deficits mean record increases in the holdings of dollars by foreigners, who can easily do business in other currencies and are growing more and more uncomfortable keeping so much of their wealth in dollar assets. Their eventual exit from the dollar will underscore the vulnerability of all paper currencies; the movement of wealth will be from the dollar and into non-paper money—gold.


    2. Record federal budget deficits add to the political motive for inflation, which is always a dandy way for politicians to get out from under the government’s accumulated debt. The bigger the debt (and it keeps getting bigger), the bigger the motive.


    3. Fighting wars isn’t just risky for American soldiers, now, without a gold standard, it’s risky for the U.S. dollar. For people on the other side, and for their sympathizers as well, the dollar deteriorates from a (formerly) useful reserve asset into an unwelcome reminder of the enemy’s power. The alternatives, including gold, look better and better. And the cost of war adds to U.S. budget deficits. And the prospect of more and wider war is the prospect that those deficits will be more and wider. The U.S. has never before fought a protracted war while the dollar was purely a paper currency.


    4. Those three factors make the dollar vulnerable on foreign exchange markets. Faced with a choice between raising interest rates to protect the dollar and lowering interest rates to stave off the next recession, the politicians will let the dollar drop into the trash compactor.


    5. Most investors don’t own gold stocks – yet. Most can’t even tell you the name of a gold stock – yet. But when the significance of 1, 2, 3 and 4 become obvious to the general public, all investors will want gold stocks. There won’t be nearly enough to go around – except at much higher prices. When the time arrives, the wave of newcomers to gold stock investing will have no choice but to buy yours.

    Dorothy Kosich von Merrill Lynch geht auch für 2007 von einer Fortsetzung der Anlegernachfrage aus. Sie revidiert daher ihre bisherige Preisprognose für 2007 von zwölf auf 13 Dollar je Unze im nach oben.


    Die Experten von der GFMS kommen dagegen zu anderen Ergebnissen: Die Nachfragesteigerung sinke, die Produktion nehme zu, was nicht gut für den Preis sei. John Bergtheil von J.P. Morgan rechnet damit, dass der Silberpreis 2008 auf 9,5 Dollar absinken könnte.


    Das Edelmetall Silber ist nichts für schwache Anlegernerven: Heuer hat der Preis schon einen Höhenflug samt anschließendem Absturz hinter sich. Derzeit ist der Preis nicht so schlecht, Experten schließen aber einen starken Rückgang bis 2008 nicht aus..



    Ich glaube die "Experten" irren sich wieder gewaltig.

    Seit heute können in China auch Goldbarren in kleinerer Stückelung von Privatpersonen erworben werden. Die bisherige Untergrenze lag bei 1kg-Barren, was die Käufer von Barren auf die Wohlhabenden beschränkte.
    Das Interesse an dieser neuen Regelung war heute aber extrem mager (o,4kg in Shanghai!) ,zumal in China Barren bislang nur eine untergeordnete Rolle beim Goldkauf spielen. Interessant, wie winzig die private Nachfrage nach Gold ist, gerade mal 0.57% des gesamten Goldhandels:


    China lowers gold trading threshold for small private investors

    In an effort to attract small private investors, China on Monday lowered the trading threshold at the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) from one kilogram to 100 grams.


    During Monday's trading, only 0.4 kg or four gold bars of this type changed hands, and transactions amounted to only 62,800 yuan.


    However, business was brisk for other types of gold. A total of 2,359 kg of two other conventional types of gold were traded and 1,506 kg of gold listed for trading delay (T+D).


    Industry experts still believe China's latest move will help diversify gold investment channels in the country and standardize the market for gold transactions.


    In July last year the SGE proposed spot trading of gold by private investors in cooperation with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC). However, the one-kg 160,000 yuan (20,000 U.S. dollars) threshold turned off many private investors.


    The volume of spot transactions by private investors in the first 10 months accounted for just 0.57 percent of total trading.


    China's gold market is currently restricted to spot trading, but the SGE has been developing derivatives such as futures, options and investment funds.


    Source: Xinhua

    Der Finanzbericht für die Woche vom 25./27. Dezember 2006
    http://www.astrodata.com/shop.…eklycontent&ccat=1&nav=45


    seine Bücher: http://www.astrodata.com/shop.…list&pg1=16&pg2=86&nav=14


    ...und aus "Voraussagungen für 2007" seine Schlussfolgerungen: Gold und Silber sind beide im letzten Stadium ihrer Langzeit-Zyklen. Deshalb haben wir entweder den Langzeit-Gipfel bereits 2006 erlebt, oder aber er ist bis 2008 fällig. Danach folgt in jedem Fall ein deutlicher Absturz in ein Tief zwischen 2009 und 2011. Solange Gold über 683 gehandelt wird, verbleibt eine Möglichkeit, dass es bis Juli erneut auf 480 bis 560 fällt - das Tal im 34-Monats-Zyklus! Gold kann unter die Tiefwerte zwischen Juni und Oktober 2006 fallen. Silber fällt wahrscheinlich nicht unter die Tiefwerte zwischen 960 und 1055, die zur selben Zeit erreicht wurden. Nach einem Tief zwischen März und Juli 2007 können sich beide Metalle erholen und innerhalb des nächsten Jahres bis zu ihren Spitzenwerten von 2006 oder noch darüber hinaus vorstossen.


    ...tönt ja nicht eben sehr verheissungsvoll :rolleyes:


    :linar :)

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    J.Taylor mit einigen Betrachtungen,wie man sich davor schützen könnte.


    Bestürzende, apokalyptische Zahlen im letzten Absatz.



    ".... But if we are heading into a hyperinflation, which I no longer think is impossible, gold is not usually the best asset to own, until the end of the crisis, when it takes on even more important monetary characteristics. Until we face that awful day of reckoning, I think I want to own some inflation hedges like silver, base metals, and uranium, as well as oil and gas. But owning some gold bullion and gold stocks is mandatory for either extreme inflation or deflation....." 8)


    http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=3523



    Grüsse
    Edel Man


    "Die Märkte haben nie unrecht, die Menschen oft." Jesse Livermore, 20.Jh.

    "Die Demokratie ist das Paradies der Schreier und Schwätzer, Phraseure, Schmeichler und Schmarotzer, die jedem sachlichen Talent weit mehr den Weg verlegen, als dies in einer anderen Verfassungsform vorkommt." E.von Hartmann

    Dieser Beitrag ist eine persönliche Meinung gem. Art.5 Abs.1 GG und Urteil des BVG 1 BvR 1384/16

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Der von Jay Taylor eingearbeitete Beitrag ist lesenswert :



    http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp



    "....But the stakes are inflating right along with Credit, liquidity and general financial excess. Wall Street will now be occupied with creating sufficient Credit, liquidity and speculative excess to maintain grossly inflated global equities, bonds, real estate, (compressed) Credit spreads, along with inflated economic Profits for the coming year....." :rolleyes:



    Grüsse

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Richard Daughty alias Mogambo wieder mal launig. :]


    Und wieder schonungslose Abrechnung mit den Talking Heads,der Fed und Bernanke.



    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty122706.html



    Grüsse


    "Die Märkte haben nie unrecht, die Menschen oft." Jesse Livermore, 20.Jh.

    "Die Demokratie ist das Paradies der Schreier und Schwätzer, Phraseure, Schmeichler und Schmarotzer, die jedem sachlichen Talent weit mehr den Weg verlegen, als dies in einer anderen Verfassungsform vorkommt." E.von Hartmann

    Dieser Beitrag ist eine persönliche Meinung gem. Art.5 Abs.1 GG und Urteil des BVG 1 BvR 1384/16

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