Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

Le Metropole Members,

Mahendra Sharma has served commentary at The Toulouse-
Lautrec Table titled:

"WILL GOLD REACH HISTORIC HIGHS IN THE NEXT NINETY DAYS OR IS IT THE END OF THE JOURNEY?"

Dear Members/Friends

I would like to start my newsletter with metals, as it is predictions on metals that gave me international popularity in the last six years. Indeed, key traders around the globe have continued to closely follow my metal predictions, and the first one to talk about my work was GATA – Bill Murphy. Jupiter guided me to predict a multi-year bull market in metals when gold was trading at $270, and many people were attracted by my Astro-cycle predictions. Indeed, the predictions of the rise of gold may have come as a new hope.

I shall do my best to guide in regard to the overall outlook, but it is also necessary to be keen on technical charts, world economic health, global geo-political situations and risk management. There is need to engage in all useful study as I believe that ignorance can put one onto the wrong path. As part of the resolves for this year, we should therefore strive to follow all important rules when investing our hard earned money. Try to remember and apply all the important points each day and I am certain that 2007 will prove to be the best year in your life.

We start 2007 with metals:

The following ten days will tell us whether gold will hit historic highs in the next ninety day or not.

A sharp fall in the first week of 2007 was a surprise to me and though I expected a weak trend, gold and silver went down more than I had anticipated. Indeed, metals are in a great positive cycle, only that they are not showing much strength. That is why I have not yet given a strong buying recommendation. Nevertheless, the outlook should change in the next few weeks.

The allure of speculation is becoming brighter than real glimmer of gold, and this is worrying and quite upsetting. It gives rise to the question of whether the bull market in gold is over or not. Will my prediction of gold reaching $1000 ever come true? Well, today we’ll try and reveal the answers.

Unfortunately, gold has emitted a negative signal during a positive cycle and this fact may portend some disconcerting moments for metal investors in 2007. The trend of gold is poised to be sideways for most of 2007, though it shall trade positively up to March 2007.

After this period however, a very uncertain trend will take root and it will persist till September 2007. During this period, we are likely to witness major volatility and some discerning people will have an opportunity to make tons of money by buying and selling at higher levels while buying back at the right time. I shall try my best to guide you through my weekly newsletter.

If gold fails to reach $1000 by March, then I seriously doubt its ability to do so in 2007, and this is therefore quite upsetting news for metal investors. One should therefore trade smartly. On my part, the weekly newsletter will guide you well and we may even make more in trading than what we could have made with gold reaching $1000.

However, I am still hopeful that gold could hit new historic highs in ninety days. The countdown starts this Thursday (11th January 2007).

This year silver will very closely follow gold’s movements and one should therefore expect the little sister to move in accordance with gold’s trend. On a few occasions in the course of the year, silver with act strangely and experience major volatility. I shall feature this in my weekly newsletter whenever it is poised to occur. In February and March, silver should remain in the hot seat and it could actually attain new multi-year highs or possibly $18.80 or $20.80. You should therefore wait for my recommendation, which should come in the next ten days.

I am not optimistic about the trend of platinum, zinc, aluminum and palladium, though copper will have great rises on a few occasion during 2007. Indeed, I shall not at all be surprised if it once again reaches the previous high.

ENERGY

The great era of oil is over and I thank Saturn for correctly guiding me in regard to the start and ending of that period. 2007 will have mixed fortunes for oil, and it will trade around $44.80 on the lower side, while the high should be around $67. Indeed, oil is likely to trade without much strength and any rising should therefore be taken as a selling opportunity. All the same, one should buy whenever I give a strong recommendation. The overall outlook indicates that energy stocks will be the worst performers in 2007, and one should therefore avoid any investment in the energy sector after March 2007.

GOLD

Metal investors had a bitter taste during the first three days of the first week’s trading session of 2007, as gold went down more than five percent. I take this as a warning signal to all who were loading up metals. The purity strength of gold is gone and speculation has taken root, therefore be very careful before you load up the metals.

This week gold will trade on Monday by showing some positive signs, and the positive trend may continue till mid-Tuesday. It will however trade sideways or weakly from Wednesday to Thursday. I don’t recommend any new buying after Tuesday, therefore be aware of that. Nonetheless, I may issue a buying signal on Friday.

The trading range for gold will be $612.80 to $594.80.

We may see a short-term recovery on Monday or till early Tuesday, though weakness should dominate the trend for the next four days.

SILVER

Silver went down quite sharply on Friday last week, and this is not at all an encouraging sign. This week silver will trade weakly, but planetary movement may give a buying signal on Thursday.

The trading range for silver will be from $12.24 to $11.78.

A fall of more than one dollar is indicated in silver prices, and there is therefore no need to buy in haste.

OIL

A sharp mind-blowing correction came in oil and we are lucky that since last four months, oil is not in our favorite list anymore. We shall avoid trading in oil for the next several days as this week oil could fall towards a new low. However, a sharp upward trend could start from Thursday and one can therefore take a buying position. If oil fails to rise this Thursday and Friday as well as during the next week, then it could fall up to $41.
I however, see a short-term rising that will start any time after this Wednesday.

Heating oil and unleaded gas shall be trading within a very thin trading range, while natural gas will show signs of strength. It might actually gain from Monday and Tuesday. Remember that overall, the long-term position of the energy sector is not very optimistic.

The Goldman Sachs commodity index, which is highly weighted on oil and has very high leverage, has fallen so sharply that any trading account that was holding a buying position could have been wiped-out.

CURRENCIES

Those who were talking about the fall of the dollar are confused after seeing last week’s dollar price movement. The dollar index gained sharply and held up its gain quite strongly. Last week’s strong recommendation to buy the dollar has proved beneficial and we shall hold buying position in the USA dollar and Japanese Yen against European currencies as well as side currencies.

This week the dollar will trade a bit weakly during the second half of Monday as well as early Tuesday. It should however get back to the positive territory and trade positively till the end of this week.

The Japanese Yen as well as the Canadian dollar shall gain this week, but the British pound and the Australian dollar shall keep losing their value. Trade accordingly.

The British Pound has sharply lost its value against the US dollar. Take a selling opportunity of each rise.

This year, the South African rand, South American currencies and Asian currencies like the Indonesian Rupiah will lose value by more than 15 percent. Long-term traders can therefore plan their trades accordingly.

Sell all major commodities on Monday. Planetary movement indicates that a rally in oil and metals may start for the short-term, therefore wait for my update on Thursday or Friday.

Buy the Dollar index.

Sell the stock Market.

In conclusion, I have been wrong twice during THE LAST SIX YEARS of predicting the unpredictable market trends:

1. In 2004 and 2005 I predicted weakness in the stock market but it never happened.

2. In 2006 I was off-track concerning metals for the first four months, but I later emerged onto the right path.

For anyone that has lost by following my recommendation, I pray that this year they make far more than they have lost.

For those who have made good gains, I pray that their rising journey may continue: I pray that we may remember to engage in charity work and share part of the profit with the needy in society.

I wish you a good trading week.

Thanks & God Bless

Mahendra Sharma, 8 January 2007

Israel cannot play Russian roulette and attack Iran, because its nuclear facilities are inhabited by Russian technicians, and Israel imports 60% of its oil from Russia. Because Israel has limited fossil fuels, its energy supply from Russia is of extreme importance for the functioning of its economy. Therefore, Ahmadinejad holds the trump card, while his chief ally, Russian kingpin Vladimir Putin controls most of Israel’s oil supply, and can bring the Israeli economy to its knees.

Tehran is rewarding Moscow with a contract for LUKOIL, to give it a role in producing oil from Azadegan, one of the largest unexploited oil fields in the world. “LUKOIL has carried out some exploration at Azadegan and, according to a contract that will be signed in the future, Iran will allow the Russian party to participate in recovering oil in Azadegan directly,” said Russia’s Atomic Energy Agency chief, Sergei Kiriyenko.

“Russia sees no political obstacles to putting the Bushehr nuclear power plant into operation as scheduled. It is Russia’s position that Iran has the right to civilian nuclear energy, in compliance with non-proliferation regulations,” Kiriyenko said on Dec 12th. Russian Deputy Industry and Energy Minister Ivan Matyorov said Iran has also offered to cooperate with Russian oil and gas companies in exploring for new deposits, both on its own territory and in other countries.

“Iranians believe that Gazprom in particular is an effective world leader, and they would like to cooperate with it. Specifically, Iranian companies have extended their presence in Venezuela and Bolivia in this domain, and they would like to cooperate with Gazprom in these regions as well,” Matyorov said. He said Russian state-controlled oil company Rosneft could soon start developing deposits in Iran.

Ahmadinejad holds another trump card over Israel. Some 12% of China’s crude imports come from Iran. On Dec 20th, Iran and China’s CNOOC, CEO.N, 0883.HK signed a $16 billion deal to develop Iran’s northern Pars gas field and build plants to produce liquified natural gas. CNOOC would have a 50% share of the produced LNG. Sinopec 0386.HK, SHI.N, is negotiating with Tehran to develop the giant Yadavaran oil field and to buy 10 million tons of natural gas per year for 25 years.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1168362120.php

Mark wenn Bush trotzdem Iran oder Syrien angreifen sollte dann geht er in die Geschichte ein als Anstifter des dritten Weltkrieg.
Seit 2003 befinden wir uns in einen Rohstoffkrieg, die meisten wissen das gar nicht.

Erstmal gab es ein paar Luftangriffe in Somalia, dort ist auch ein Flugzeugtraeger positioniert.

Man spielt mal wieder Welt Polizei waerend sich Nordkorea auf den naechsten Atomtest vorbereitet.

Sie koennen es nicht lassen und der Hass wird immer groesser in der ganzen Region.
Anstatt selber dort nach BL zu suchen bombardiert man ganz feig die Zivilisten die nichts dafuer koennen.

Zum Markt:

Gestern war es Arschknapp als HUI bei 307 war, ich bin gespannt wie es heute weiter geht.

3 Tage noch dann sollte eine Entscheidung fallen.
Ich habe das Gefuehl es gibt danach einen Hupfer wie wir ihn noch nie gesehen haben.
Die letzten schwachen Spekulanten verlassen den Markt der nun fuer eine massive Rally vorbereitet wird.

Wer nicht kapituliert hat dem gratuliere ich fuer seinen Mut der sich bezahlt macht in kuerze.

Ich will nicht den Tag vor dem Abend loben aber ich denke mir wir werden belohnt und Sinclair hat recht mit seiner Vorhersage.

Die Elliots sollten ihr Kursziel (Welle 4c) auf die 590 schieben, dort liegt der max. Boden.IMO
Beim HUI ist der ca. 290 wenn ich mir die demolierten Charts anschaue.

Lassen wir uns ueberraschen, ich wuensche Euch jedenfalls alles Gute.

Gestern massiv in China investiert bei MSV.TO - SWG.TO - SVM.TO
Ich liebaeugle nun mit Venezuela Stock CDE- KRY- GRZ.
Auch in Bolvia sind einige geopolitische Poker Aktien mit grossen Risko und Reward. APE.V - ORV.TO - EEL.V und SIL .. Salsa Latino.
Im Endeffekt wird es anders gehandhabt als momentan gedroht wird von Hugo und Evo am Ende des Tages.IMO
Das mit der 6fachen Minensteuer ist noch nicht besiegelt sondern nur ein Traum des Minister Minister Guillermo Dalence der anscheinend wieder betrunken war.
Die Unzen die dort im Boden liegen wird jemand rausholen das steht fest.
Diesen auslaendischen Firmen muss man auch einen Gewinn lassen sonst kann Evo und Hugo selber graben.
Die CDE sieht am schlimmsten aus, mal schaun ob noch Geld im Sparschwein ist fuer diesen Poker.
Ich habe einige Firmen angeschrieben in der Sache und die sagten business as usual mit weiteren grossen Investitionen in ihre Projekte.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/…c=HybArt-L2-CompanyNews-2

Gruss, have a nice day

Eldo

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Was sagen die Elliots ? (01.01.2007)

Man erwartet nachdem 594 USD gehalten hat einen Anstieg auf 830 USD in 2007 und danach ein Fall auf die 540-580 USD.

So wie ich das verstehe ist die Welle 4c gelaufen mit dieser Korrektur und bald beginnt die Welle 5 die bis ca. Jahresmitte bis auf 830 USD geht.

Es macht mir keinen Sinn warum oder weshalb es dann von 830 auf die 560 faellt.
Die Dollarstaerke ist jetzt und in der zweiten Jahreshaelfte und weiteren Jahren sollte der fallen. Hat jemand eine Elliot Vorrausage mit dem USD die sollte zeigen ob das stimmt.

........................................

Bis in die erste Jahreshälfte hinein wird Gold im Rahmen der Welle 5 weiter steigen.
Vorausgesetzt, die 594 USD werden nicht mehr unterschritten.

Ein erstes Zwischenziel wird dann der Bereich aus dem Mai des vergangenen Jahres bei 730 bzw. 740 USD darstellen.
Nach einer zu vernachlässigenden Korrektur sollten im Anschluss daran die 800 USD, eher 830 USD, in Angriff genommen werden.

Eine erste Bestätigung erhalten wir schon, wenn zum Jahresbeginn die 645 USD überschritten werden.

In der zweiten Jahreshälfte ist allerdings mit einer heftigen korrektiven Trendumkehr zu rechnen.

580 bis 540 USD sind dann das Kursziel.

Ob dieses schon zum Jahreswechsel 2007/08 erreicht wird, ist allerdings eher zweifelhaft.

http://www.elliottwaves-online…e/content/070101-Gold.php