Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

auratico

..richtig was du schreibst, im text weiter unten redet man von der geringsten Arbeitslosigkeit in D was ich bezweifle.
Ueber 45 Jahre alt nimmt dich kein Schwein mehr und man bleibt arbeitslos.

Hier was anderes, der sagt das nur 0.28% der Gelder in PM Fonds/ETF's investiert ist bis jetzt.
Von einen Goldrush bis jetzt noch nichts zu sehen, dennoch die Tendenz ist steigend.

The rally leaves gold-basher a bit abashed

AGENCIES MONDAY, JANUARY 29, 2007 02:51:51 AM

LOS ANGELES: Along with the patience to endure decades-long bear markets, some gold investors have extraordinarily long memories.

So we learn from a piece of mail that arrived the other day containing a copy of a column I wrote almost six years ago. The missive, which lacked a return address, consisted of three parts stapled together: The column, dated May 4, 2001, bearing the headline ‘Gold funds’ assets dwindle down to a precious few’; a chart depicting the dramatic rally in gold and silver since then; and a page with the cartoon character Homer Simpson crying “D’Oh!”

As of early 2001, I noted, gold had been in a bear market for 21 years, and assets of US precious metals mutual funds had dropped to a puny $1.3 billion.

Of every $1,000 invested in the US funds of all types, I calculated, gold funds accounted for 20 cents.

Seen in retrospect, that picture looks like a contrarian’s dream. The world price of gold, then at $265 per troy ounce, has since rallied as high as $721 in May 2006, and lately has traded around $660. For the past five years, the two dozen gold and precious-metals funds tracked by Bloomberg have done even better, producing a whopping 32% -a-year return including dividends.

For all the noise the gold market generates and the heavy media coverage it has always received, gold funds hold a very modest amount of money. Even after all those years of price appreciation, by my rough count, total assets in these funds as of a few days ago came to a bit less than $17 billion.

Add in another $11 billion or so in GETFs, a new force in the market since 2001, and you get about $28 billion. With overall US fund assets having surpassed $10 trillion last year, gold funds now hold about $2.80 of each $1,000 in funds of all types.

To some, this may suggest that the gold rally has plenty of room left to keep going. As for me, I have no forecast to offer. As a matter of fact, I made no predictions in that column either, believing then as now that this small, highly emotional market is the very essence of unforecastability. The gold game is an extremely difficult one to play.

In 1998, the managers of one of the best known gold funds, the First Eagle Gold Fund, said they came within a whisker of closing it down. The fund, with assets of less than $100 million in those days, now holds about $1.1 billion. Recall that in 2001 all US gold funds together held not much more than that. In other words, very little of the money now invested in gold funds was on board when the upward ride began.

Streettracks Gold Trust, a GETF with an m-cap of $9.5 billion, didn’t come on the scene until November 2004. Since then it has returned 17% a year, according to Bloomberg — a nice payoff, to be sure, but considerably less than the big numbers figured from the lows in the early 00s.

Lessons learned? As a counterweight to life’s other uncertainties and a check on the excesses to which paper-money policy makers are prone, gold is probably due a bit more respect than I was ready to give it back in 2001. For a supposed safe haven, however, gold looks to me as volatile and difficult to trust as ever.

Le Metropole Members,

Enrico Orlandini has served commentary at The Dos
Passos Table titled, "JANUARY GOLD REPORT Getting Warmer!"

"There has been a lot of commentary, articles, and just
plain gossip about gold lately. Most of it can be
classified under the "what you don't know, you can always
make up" category. The bottom line is that most people
are bearish on gold. I can always tell."

Even under the best of circumstances I get the occasional “gold’s all done, get out while you can” e-mail, but in late December it turned into a flood and the tide has yet to recede. The bull market in gold is over they triumphantly announce! Well, if they are druids they better pray to their tree that it isn’t. Without gold and silver there will be no port in the storm for the average investor over the coming two years. Since the bull market in gold began in earnest in 2001, I have beenthe recipient of a lot of investor anxiety (I’m not complaining, just commenting), and most if not all of it has been misplaced or misdirected. If you’re about to tell me that the bull market for gold really began in 1999, don’t! I know that, but almost no one noticed at the time. I’ve provided the usual historical chart for gold above, and if you’ll be so kind as to glance at it, you’ll see that gold’s performance has been remarkable to say the least. So what did I do when faced with the onslaught of negative correspondence? I did what I always do when I smell the stench produced by the mixture of fear and despair, I bought. Now let’s talk about why I did what I did.

I love the historical charts because they almost always put things in their proper perspective. In my business monthly charts are the best, weekly charts are good, and daily charts are where most of the money is left on the table. Since most human beings are more “today” oriented that I am, and to satisfy their desires, I’ve posted a weekly chart for gold.

Different time frame, same story! Back in December we looked at this chart and I told you four things:

· Gold was acting well and tracing out a series of higher lows,

· Gold was being compressed into a tighter and tighter trading range with lower highs and higher lows,

· Gold was going to a minimum of $686.20 on this leg up, and

· Gold would have two seven percent corrections along the way.

Several things have happened recently that now require a bit of modification. On January 25th the spot gold recorded a print high of $661.20 thereby exceeding the last significant high of $655.50 established back in November 2006. That higher high is the breakout I’ve been waiting for and that should kick this rally into a higher gear. Now with respect to the two seven percent corrections, there is one down and one to go. Using the November high of $655.50, a seven percent correct correction would be $45.88 and land us at $609.61. On an intraday basis, we actually bottomed at $603.00 but the closing low (I use only closing numbers for my analysis) was $609.30 and right on the money. Using the intraday low of $603.00 would amount to a 7.6% correction and still qualify me for tenure at a decent university.

So if the first correction was right on the money, why did everyone get so bent out of shape and throw in the towel? Two reasons really: ignorance and timing! With respect to timing, everyone thought the first correction would have come at a higher level, say at $686.20 or even $728.60, but the gold gods do have a sense of humor as well as a mind of their own. So the correction came at 655.50. So what? Nothing has changed and it’s one less correction to worry about. Try to keep in mind that we’ll have another seven percent correction to deal with somewhere down the road. My best guess, and it’s just a guess, is that it will come somewhere in the $728.00 range. If my limited math skills still serve me that would be a $50.96 clubbing and a return to 677.04. Assuming that were to be the case, what should one do?

I would just sit on my hands and do nothing, but that’s just me. The other thing I would do is add on at $680.00 instead of selling at precisely the wrong moment. I realize these aren’t easy things to do, but they are the right things. The people who insist on “trading” gold are getting slaughtered coming and going.

Getting back to gold, what it has done is maintain an upward bias using the 50-week moving average as support and in the process has staked out a series of three higher lows. The last higher low was the $603.00 low mentioned above. Recently, gold has been busy trying to break out for the $644.50 area. For the record, Friday’s close was at $644.50 and the second consecutive close above this all important number. Why so important? Two reasons:

· The $644.50 represents the 50% retracement from the $728.00 high back down to the $561.00 low, and

· The $644.70 (notice the slight difference with the number above) represents the 61.8% retracement from the $252.00 all-time low back up to the $887.50 all-time high.

Definitely not child’s play and we may have to do a bit of work here to get through it. As a reminder, I have posted the only numbers you need to worry about with respect to gold:

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

616.60 644.50

624.60 664.20

686.20

728.60

Here I’ve given you a score card for gold and you can use it to follow along. These are all the important numbers and the ones in bold print are the most important of all. Anything else is just noise.

In conclusion, I would like to make one more change in my December forecast. I stated that, looking a little further out in the calendar, I believe we’ll see a close above US $730.40 in the spring of 2007 and a new all-time high sometime later in the year. I now believe that this leg up will not exhaust itself until we see a $775.00 print at the very least. This market spent months, from May 11, 2006 until January 25, 2007, being compressed into a tighter and tighter trading range and I don’t believe we did that to simply rally another $70.00 or so. I believe we’ve broken out of that range with the two consecutive closes above 644.50 and the 661.20 print high which just happened to be above the previous 655.50 high several months before. There is the possibility a minor correction could take us back down to the 636.40 area but I have a lot of difficulty seeing gold go any lower than that. Finally, there is that second correction looming out there on the investment horizon and it will come sooner or later. When is anybody’s guess? Finally, you can rest assured that there will be volatility along the way, and some pain, but the trend will remain up for years to come.

January 27, 2007

Dow Theory Analysis SAC

Lima, Peru

The New World Order:

Bilderbergs
Abstract

The Bilderbergs – who are they and what do they do? An aura of mystique surrounds the name, casting shades of reflections of the power elite who supposedly rule the world. Presidents, royalty, prime ministers, global industrialists, and financial leaders from around the world are said to be members of the secrete organization that meets once a year to set the direction and course of international affairs, world events, and global policies.

Once the elite collectivists have it down to three regions, they will then seek two, and finally one: the ultimate manifestation of their one world government New World Order. One government and ONE CURRENCY – giving them complete monopoly over the entire globe.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1170086600.php

Ps: Angela Merkel ist auch ein Mitglied von dem Verein, die verkauft ihr Volk genauso.

Who Runs The World And Controls The Value Of Assets?

By Joan Veon

Today, only five countries in the world are without a central bank: Iran, North Korea, Sudan, Cuba and Libya.
All of these just happen to be on George Bush's "Evil of Axis" list.

In light of the rapid drop in the price of gold and oil, and to answer the question posed earlier of "Who controls value?" we see one name: Rothschild. When we want to discuss the value of gold -- it is set by the Rothschilds on a daily basis. When we want to discuss the value of oil -- they own one of the largest oil companies in the world. And, when we want to discuss interest rates, they are one of the controlling families that own the Federal Reserve Bank, with equally great power over the Bank of England.

We have just seen a major shift--or reversal--in two major trends that have been dominant since 2000: gold and oil. Is this temporary? At every turn we hear of more wars. There are those who say Bush is preparing for an October strike against Iran. If that is the case, the drop in oil and gold was an excuse to skim off the top of the world's assets (yours and mine). It appears that we are in a time of perpetual war for war is a transfer of wealth and an opportunity to finance both sides. There is nothing in this world that is not affected by the supreme power of a few major families worldwide. Furthermore, most of the major political players today are members of one of Rhode's secret societies: the Council on Foreign Relations, the Royal Institute for International Affairs, and the Pilgrims Society.

Bottom-line--the above newsletters have described a very powerful global mafia that, basically, runs the world. What can "we the people" do?

Knowledge has always been power. If you operate out of ignorance, you just might sell the family farm! Although the rich and powerful have always run the world, we are now seeing and identifying the forces that run the world in our time.

http://www.rense.com/general75/wrus.htm

silverchiller

Klar, die koennen sich aussuchen zwischen einem Bankkonto oder einer Kuendigung.

Wer nicht mitspielt dem gehts schlecht, ganz einfach.

Gruss

XEX