Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    .....bei misan is garagenflohmarkt.8o

    ....................................................................................................................
    aluhut .. das grundproblem ist, dass man mit fakten gegen emotionen arbeitet.
    neurologisch gesehen werden fakten immer den kürzeren ziehen, unser gehirn verarbeitet gefühle viel stärker als sachinformationen.
    l. benecke

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von wassergeist ()

    so da sind wir richtig. klar dass hier nix los ist wenns runtergeht...as usual...LEUTE...(*MAHN*) dass ihr mir nicht die Einstiegschance verpasst (ABKICHER!!!)


    all i want ist Laufzeit >3 Seiderln hehehe!!!


    12,20 ok ok, nix verloren dieses Jahr...den einen zeig ich Dir...money mangagement is all, hab noch 6/10 cash im Hintergrund. keine Luxusaktien, keine Bohrlöcherantizpationen...alles verkauft(zum Glück mit spärlichem Gewinn (virginia Mines, Christopher Mines) nur 1. Klopapier willig zum austauschen in Silber und das tu ich ab morgen, keiner wird mich dran hindern...ich bete für die 11 in Silver..


    PS BITTE wieso sinkt Silber und Gold nicht so stark? denkt nach....war Ende Februar dabei.....


    Tagebuch ab jetzt.


    :D

    Hallo Silberstation,


    Zitat

    Original von Silberstation
    PS BITTE wieso sinkt Silber und Gold nicht so stark?


    gUTE Frage,
    AG: -5,05%
    AU: -1,50%
    und parallel dazu permanent das Gewimmer der Goldbugs im Ohr... das nervt vielleicht... :D


    Zitat

    denkt nach....war Ende Februar dabei.....


    Ich denke nach. [denk] :rolleyes: :O ;( :([/denk] Ich denke, ich war Ende Februar nicht dabei, glaub ich. Was meinst du denn damit? ?(


    Grüße
    Clarius


    PS: Was ist denn aus deiner netten Avatar geworden? :) ;)

    Zitat

    Original von elefant_111
    ....von wegen freie Märkte - wird Zeit, daß bei den Amis die Luft rausgelassen wird....


    Wenn ihr mich fragt:
    Die Amis sind gerade dabei, sich genau das selbst zu besorgen. Die Situation wird von Tag zu Tag unmöglicher und unhaltbarer.


    Trotz offensichtlich massivst gedrückter Gold-und Silberpreise (vgl. Edelmetall-Leihraten) kackt der USD-Index regelrecht ab.


    Fazit: Mehr und mehr Menschen erkennen, daß man in der Summe für alle Dollars keinen adäquaten Gegenwert erhalten kann - und verkaufen demzufolge. Auch mit Verlusten. Anders kann ich mir es nicht erklären, wenn verbriefte US-Supbrime Kredite unterhalb von 40 Prozent ihres Nominalwertes gehandelt werden. Die Anleger wollen da unbedingt raus. Auch um einen sehr hohen Preis (=Verlust).


    Irgendwo entgleitet denen immer mehr die Kontrolle. Werden Währungen gedrückt, steigt der POG, haut man den Goldpreis runter, steigen Währungen. Verrückt. Absolut verrückt. Der USD-Index wachelt heftigst. Und das um so mehr, je totaler ihre Manipulationen werden. Der Kippunkt, also der Punkt, an dem die Lügen und Täuschngen in sich zusammenbrechen werden, der ist genau dann erreicht, wenn ihnen das GOLD ausgeht.


    Denn: Währungen kann man nahezu beliebig manipulieren, solange sich alle Notenbanken einig sind. Und weil keine Notenbank es schuld sein will, das ihr Land massivst Arbeitsplätze und Exportanteile verliert, müssen sie sich alle einig darin sein, die Währung des Importeurs und Schuldners USA zu stützen. Selbst ihr letztes, physisch präsentes GOLD werden sie dafür hergeben, so ist zu befürchten, ihre "Leihware" bekommen sie ohnehin nie wieder zurück....


    Biedermann und die Brandstifter lassen grüßen..........


    Und bei Abflüssen von etwa 250 und mehr offiziellen Tonnen binnen vier Monaten kann dieser Zeitpunkt nicht mehr ewig lange entfernt liegen. Zumal es den Anschein hat, daß mit fallendem GOLDPREIS, die Goldabgabemengen weiter ansteigen werden.....


    Klar ist, daß die Investoren dem Kursverfall von US-Schrottanleihen nicht mehr lange tatenlos zusehen werden. Bald geht es dann den US-T-Bonds an den Kragen. Wohin die so freigesetzte Überliquidität wohl gehen dürfte, wenn man den USA und dem Dollar nicht mehr recht vertraut? Denn daß diue T-Bonds mit frisch gedrucktem GELD aufgekauft werden, das ist logisch. Die Alternative wären Kursverluste von 60 bis 70 Przent und mehr. Damit würde der US-Administration die Möglichkeit genommen, sich am internatiuonalen Finanzmärkten mit GELD zu versorgen.... Das werden sie nicht zulassen Keine Regierung, in deren Macht es stünde, das zu verhindern würde sowas zulassen.


    Also wird dann immer noch agressiver inflationiert werden (genau wie schon jetzt bereits massiv inflationiert wird).


    Wirklich glaubwürdige Alternativen sehe ich da keine.

    Blood From A Stone - By: Theodore Butler


    .....The current sell-off in silver and gold is a result of tech fund and other speculative selling (both long liquidation and new short selling) and dealer buying (T. rex short covering and raptor long accumulation). In addition, the sharp decline in silver today can also be traced to a large number of put options that suddenly went into the money on today’s option expiration. Bullish silver investors who sold these puts undoubtedly found themselves in sudden loss situation and had to take the only corrective action they could take to protect themselves, namely, sell silver futures. This was not accidental, but a designed strategy by the dealers. The dealers, large and small, can buy on the way down because they are disciplined and collusive, and are keenly aware of how the markets work. The tech funds and leveraged speculators are not. The current sell-off will end when the last tech fund and speculator sells......
    ....One last point. Today’s sell-off was particularly offensive in that there were no outside influences to explain it. It was all COMEX and option expiration related. This is like a mugging in broad daylight with the police just watching. Forgetting the police (the regulators), perhaps even worse is that anyone who follows the market should be aware of what happened. To remain quiet and say nothing and pretend no crime has taken place is morally offensive. If you are a letter writer or advisor, you should speak up. The free market is at risk......
    full story: http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1182880797.php


    linar :)

    We have received several inquiries today, so I decided to take some time away from my work on the July edition of The Morgan Report to address the metals markets.


    Mr Morgan,
    How about a special "emergency" email/comment to you subscribers on the current silver market conditions. Is it now a bear market? In times like this we need to know your latest position?


    Sincerely yours,
    Paul


    This is one of several comments we received today. First let us review what we stated in the June issue.


    Quoting:


    As always, you need as much specific information as possible to help with
    your investment decisions. Here is how we currently see the precious
    metals markets. The structure of the market is such that the trend remains
    up as long as gold does not close below $648.00 and silver does not close
    below $12.62 basis the cash price (spot). If these levels hold, then this
    will be the area of finishing off the base building for a further up move.


    However, we are not going to be convinced that we are finally in our next
    leg up until we see gold over $684.00 and silver over $13.94 again. Bottom
    line: buy throughout the summer/fall on weakness, and if silver and gold
    fall hard, buy more!


    Today gold closed at $643.70 and silver closed at $12.34. As we often state one day does not make a market but we have closed below the technical levels outlined and most of our subscribers know we adhere to a three day rule, meaning any support or resistance level that is penetrated needs to be verified by the market. We want to watch and if the metals remain below $648 for gold and $12.62 for silver we will have a strong probability that both of these markets are going lower.


    Are we in a bear market?


    No we are not in a bear market.


    To be in a bear market would require the major up trend lines to be pierced and we are a very long way from that taking place. This of course is part of the "problem" because from a technical perspective only gold could drop to perhaps $525 and silver to the $10.00 level and we would still be in a bull market!




    The blue arrow is pointing to approximately $525 and shows the amount of movement gold could go down and still be above the major up trend line. Notice also that gold is resting on the 50 day moving average, however silver pierced it today see chart below.




    Looking at silver we could see silver move down to $10.00 and still remain in a major up trend, however silver did move under the 50 day moving average a strong hint this market may be going lower. Again we MUST apply the 3 day rule and watch.


    Study this chart carefully, notice when silver finally bottomed out in September 2003 right at the 200 day average it moved above $5.50 and very quickly shot up to the $8.40 level. Next silver kissed the major up trend in September 2005 near $7.00 and shot up to the $15 level by May 2006. Do you think silver could touch the $10 level, only to shoot up to $22 over eight months?


    First, let us state the 3 day rule is not perfect and the market could get a good bounce tomorrow June 27th, 2007 and this would not really prove anything, basically the best stance to take is to wait a few trading days say 3-5 and see what the market does. The next issue of the Morgan Report should be posted Sunday night or Monday July 2nd.


    The bull market can be tough indeed, I was on two radio shows today and Dow Jones London contacted us to give our take on the sell off. What is important to remember is the fundamentals have not changed, the reason you invested in the precious metals to begin with remains the same. Secondly, and very importantly large secular bull markets normally touch the major up trend line somewhere in the middle to late in the cycle. So it is possible to touch or get close to the major up trend line at some point.


    The tough question is what action to take? First we were buyers of stocks today. Would not take a position in the metals themselves without seeing more trading. As we have stated in the past two issues plan to accumulate over the summer and into the fall. We said in the June issue to plan out your strategy to be fully invested by year end 2007. This has not changed.


    "Be right, Sit tight"


    This is the inscription on the pen all of us who attended the Bob Bishop "roast" at the Vancouver Gold show received as a memento. Bob Bishop was one of the more famous newsletter writers in this sector and highly regarded by all. I agree with Bob, you are right it is tough to sit when the market moves strongly against you but there is no need to panic, the precious metals are the best investment in these uncertain times.


    Sincerely,
    The Silver Investor

    Der IMF verschiebt das Treffen, an dem über die geplanten Goldverkäufe zur Abwendung einer Insolvenz beraten werden sollte, um einen Monat. So könnten sie dann im Herbst zuschlagen. Mit den Erlösen aus dem Goldverkauf würde ein Fonds gegründet werden, dessen Erträge die laufenden Ausgaben abdecken soll


    IMF delays sale of gold reserves


    WASHINGTON, June 26: The International Monetary Fund has delayed by one month a board meeting to discuss financial reform, including the possible sale of some of its valuable gold reserves, a spokesman said on Tuesday...


    In late January, an IMF-appointed panel of leading experts called on the Fund to sell some of its gold reserves to assure its future. The Fund has forecast a revenue shortfall of $105 million for its 2007 business year ended April 30.


    By 2010, the deficit is expected to climb to $365 million, the experts predicted. They suggested, among other measures, the sale of 400 tons of gold, which at the time could raise $6.6 billion at current market prices.


    The IMF has more than 3,200 tons of gold as part of its financial stockpile, but has resisted selling any.


    Money from the gold sales should be put in an endowment fund, which could yield annual investment profits of $195m, report by Crockett's panel said.


    http://www.dawn.com/2007/06/27/ebr6.htm


    mfg


    Goldcore

    Ich stimme Hommelberg zu...


    Alle reden vom Yen Carry trade und man zieht Geld von Gold, das erinnert mich an Januar 2007, da hatten wir den selben Carry for Harry Bullshit der auch vorbei geht. I stocked up on KGC CEF MFL LIHR EPZ =) wenn ich hoere was Harry auf CNBC sagt.
    Ich denke mir das Gold und PM Aktien wohl die letzte Position ist um Liquiditaet zu schaffen. Waren die ueberhaupt in dem Markt ? :D
    Ausserdem ist es unten, speziell die Aktien mit wenig Profit zu ziehen, was soll der scheiss ?... It does not make sense to me.
    Jedenfalls so viel negatives gegen Gold war schon lange nicht mehr da..... IMO das stinkt doch zum Himmel und verleitet zum kaufen oder verkaufen.


    Wer nicht weiss was er tun soll der soll halten und besser an Sex denken. :D


    Optimistisch ist Eric Hommelberg:


    Despite the fact that the long term outlook for gold remains as bullish as it can get it should be noted that gold’s bearish sentiment these days won’t disappear over night and yes, many analysts are still calling for a further drop as from here. But if you are a believer in gold’s future then these are the time to increase your gold share positions since the gold shares are selling at fire sale prices due to this extreme bearish sentiment. In other words, downside risk is low. Higher gold prices the years ahead will lift the entire gold share sector but the most exciting rewards will come from junior mining companies making new discoveries.


    ......GOLDDRIVERS 2007


    Gold & Inflation


    by Eric Hommelberg


    June 26, 2007


    In cased you missed it gold is coming down lately. Today (June 26) it fell by another $10 and touched its 200 dma for the first time since early 2007. Sure enough bearish sentiment has been propelled to new extremes as a result of this sudden drop and spooked out many investors out of their gold positions. Time to worry? No! Why not? Well, gold touching its 200 dma is a phenomena we’ve been witnessing once or twice a year since the start of this gold bull market in 2001 and sure enough we’ll be witnessing it many more times in the years ahead. It’s just part of the game. When examining previous bottoms we’ll see that whenever gold touched its 200 dma it entered a ‘BUY’ zone in which it can stay for up to two months before taking off towards higher levels.


    Does it mean that gold can’t drop any further from here on?


    No, that’s not what I mean, what I want to say is that we find ourselves near bottom levels. Even if gold would drop further from here there is no reason for worry since the worst corrections in gold (since 2001) have been characterized by relative gold values (gold vs its own 200 dma) of 0.95 and needless to say we are nowhere near such depressed levels yet. In order to do so gold would have to drop all the way down to $605. Now I’m not predicting a further drop towards $605, all I want to say is that corrections towards gold’s own 200 dma and slightly below are a normal phenomena in any on going bull market .


    So what to do now then?


    Well, the only appropriate thing to do right now is to do nothing at all. This bottom process will most probably end in this price area and as I pointed out in my piece ‘GoldDrivers 2007 – Gold’s Fundamentals still pointing towards $2000+’ there is still plenty of reason to be bullish on the outlook for gold coming years. Always consider yourself what fundamentals launched the gold price from its 22 year low of $250 in 2001 to current price levels around $650 today. What fundamentals changed in order to justify the end of this bull run? The answer is simple. None! In part I we shone a light on gold’s historical average and the US$ and needless to say we couldn’t find any bear argument over there, in contrary, in order to reach new historical ‘REAL’ highs gold should be trading above $2000 levels these days.


    In this piece we will shine a light on gold related to inflation:


    IMPORTANT NOTE: It’s not my aim to build a case for higher gold prices just on higher rates/inflation alone. Inflation is just ONE of several critical drivers for gold. In part I we discussed gold related to the dollar and its historical norm, today we will shine light on gold related to inflation and next essays will shine a light on other critical drivers like supply/demand/oil and manipulation.


    Gold & Inflation


    In part I (gold &US$) I quoted a popular bear tune which wants you to believe that rising rates are being the death knell for gold. The fact however is that rising rates as a result of a dropping dollar is a strong critical driver for gold which was the case during the seventies indeed when the 10 year yield rose from a mere 5% in the early seventies towards 15% in the early eighties. Gold performed extremely well in that environment since it rose from $35 towards $850. That’s the big picture, please commit this to memory since daily market commentary on gold will get you nowhere. Reading daily market commentary is like staring at noise which troubles the big picture behind it. What I mean is this, gold can move in opposite direction on certain news as one would normally expect. It’s no secret that the big financial power houses (read commercial bullion banks) aren’t very pleased with rising gold prices so they knock gold down on gold bullish news. They do it it such a blatant way that it has become a joke. Gold experts who endorse GATA’s claims like eg John Embry, Frank Veneroso, James Turk, Peter Grandich, Doug Casey and Peter George are reporing the counter intuitive moves for years but unfortunately most of the main stream gold analysts still don’t get it..(We will discuss Gold & GATA more in detail in a separate essay). But if you have a good sence of humor you can enjoy yourself by reading daily comments like:


    ;(Gold going down on lower oil prices since lower oil prices are a boost for the economy therefore reducing gold’s appeal as an alternative for the DOW.


    ;(Gold going down on higher oil prices since higher oil prices are bad for the economy thereby reducing demand for gold jewelry. This will lead to lower gold prices.


    ;(Gold going down on a higher dollar since a higher dollar reduces the need to for investors to protect themselves (by means of gold) against a loss of purchasing power.


    ;(Gold going down on a lower dollar since a lower dollar leads to rising rates which in turn could have a devastating effect for home owners thereby impacting the economy on a negative note thereby reducing demand for gold à lower gold prices.


    ;(Gold going down on inflation fears since a rising inflation would force the FED to raise rates which would strenghten the dollar thereby encouraging investors to sell their gold in favor of the dollar.


    ;(Gold going down on a rising DOW since rising stocks provide a better alternative for the investor than gold.


    ;(Gold down on a crasing DOW since investors need to cash in their gold position in order to provide the investor with enough liquidity fast (eg in order to meet margin calls etc....)


    Now please don’t think these remarks are exaggerated, just check it out yourself in this video interview posted on thestreet.com. Gold bearish themes as a result of higher rates to come followed by gold bearish tunes as a result of lower inflation rates to come all within 6 minutes, in summary this is being said: ( siehe video im vorigen posting )


    First part of interview: Higher rates à weighing on the economy à weighing on the stock market à downdraft on the commodity markets à 20% downturn in gold


    Second part of interview: Experts see a very healthy US economy with low inflation :D (low inflation is lower rates) 6 months down the road à healthy for the dollar :D..... à pressure on the gold price. ;(



    There it is, no matter what the US stock market does, gold should go down, no matter which way rates are heading, gold should go down, at least that’s what many gold analysts want you to believe. :rolleyes:


    You get it? My point is that daily market analysis is almost completely useless and confusing since it troubles the big picture behind it. Daily market analysis is like discussing weekly weather temperature swings and extrapolating the weekly temperature trend 6 months ahead. But as one can imagine staring at weekly temperature trends is staring at noise which will get you nowhere. In order to get an impression of what weather temperatures could be 6 months ahead it might be a better idea to analyse last years temperature cycle and try to determine where you find yourself this year into that cycle. The same analogy applies for the gold market as well. Staring at weekly/daily movements doesn’t make sence at all since it doesn’t tell you anything. In order to get a grasp of what could lie ahead it’s better to understand the implications of a massive scale of monetary inflation, one almost never witnessed before.


    Sure enough enough one could argue about the true rate of inflation but I would say if you still believe your government inflation statistics then please forget about gold. The simple fact is that central banks around the world are printing their currencies into oblivion which simply leads to a lower confidence in their corresponding currencies which in turn undermines investor’s willingness purchasing bonds at an ever increasing pace neccesary to keep the system going. So printing money at an ever increasing pace inevitably leads to the only single conclusion possible:


    Inflation will roar it ugly head in the years to come.... END


    Fiat will shrink, Gold will be back big way , Amigos.... XEX

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Hallo Eldo,


    'schöne' Beispiele von Hommelberg. Hinterher findet man für wirklich jede, hinteroberallerletzte Kursbewegung auch eine 'pfundamentale' Begründung, das tagtägliche Analystenschreibe-Cabaret!


    Nun kam der 'Jungspund' Schröder auch noch mit der C-Welle, siehe redaktioneller Teil der gs.


    Klarere EW-Muster gibt es selten! Ich will ja nicht recht haben, aber 'das Schwierigste an der EW-Analyse ist zu glauben, was man sieht'.


    Time will tell,


    Lucky, aus dem Lande William Tell's


    Lasst euch nicht ein X für ein U vormachen, seit auf der Hxt!

    Lucky.... sure, das tagtägliche Analystenschreibe-Cabaret, wenigstens was positives egal ob es nun stimmt. ;)


    Good luck fuer alle Elliott Surfer die auf die Welle 3 bis $ 510 warten und Pessimisten auf der anderen Seite die darueber lachen.
    Tut mir leid, ich lebe am Meer und kann diese Welle nicht sehen sondern die andere die sich bald aufbaut.
    Wie du schon sagst, seeing is believing.
    IMO next week the wind will change.
    Mal schaun ob das Cabaret war oder eine gute Preis / Trendvohersage.
    I'll get the news in D, hopefully good ones. ;)
    Lasst euch nicht ein X für ein U vormachen und kapitulieren.
    Hold the line guys, IMO its a dirty trick to rip you from your Gold & Silver.
    The cabaret is the PPT !


    MfG


    XEX

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