Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

Le Metropole Members,

Peter Rahlter has served commentary at The Toulouse-Lautrec
Table titled, "A Riddle Wrapped in a Mystery."

"Wellll, it's sure been interesting to watch the market
action over the last 24 hours. Early on, somebody must
have been selling substantial amounts of bullion in
Europe in order to keep forcing the market down in
increments. The Kitco chart during the London hours
shows the kind of ragged action that one might expect
as buyers and sellers battle it out. But then look what
happens the moment the Comex opens; the gold market
just collapses in the "waterfall" pattern that we have
come to associate with manipulation. It's just amazing
what you can do with paper; welcome to America!"

Zum Glueck sind heute ein paar draufgekommen das Gold doch noch Safe Haven ist, der FED hat heute wieder einige Mrd USD fluessig gemacht fuer den Dow. Das PPT macht Ueberstunden.

...The PPT’s strategy is to offset weakness in the US housing market, with increased household wealth in the stock market, in order to avoid a recession. However, the weakness in housing has gone on longer and deeper than the PPT would like....

... But the PPT cannot afford to sit back and watch both the US housing market and the stock market sinking at the same time. That might spell the dreaded “R” word, - Recession. Recognizing the huge risks to the US economy, President Bush called for a special meeting of his economic advisors on July 27th, to discuss the stock market, which had plunged as much as 456-points the previous day....

Goldman Sachs was swept lower by Bear Stearns, whose shares melted down by 25% since July 18th, after two of its hedge funds that bet heavily on risky sub-prime loans had dropped to 9-cents on the dollar. Traders are also nervous about investment banks that have underwritten $300 billion of high yield junk bonds that are unlikely to clear the market at a price they were bought at.

However, the PPT wouldn’t stand idle and allow the panic swirling around the Wall Street power brokers to turn into a crisis. “The market understands, that the Fed will act in due time, if and when evidence accumulates that action would be appropriate,” said St Louis Fed chief William Poole on July 31st.

On August 3rd, US Energy czar Sam Bodman had loudly voiced concern the US economy was “in the danger zone” and would suffer if oil prices did not fall soon. “We are going to need more oil and I’m hopeful that the OPEC ministers at their Sept 11th meeting will agree to that. I am concerned that we are operating in the ranges approaching $80 per barrel,” Bodman said.

Hugo Chaves verkuendet von Caracas das Oil bald 100 USD gehandelt wird.

http://www.sirchartsalot.com/article.php?id=65

Hier gehts mehr als nur um Butter
Wer will sich die schon vom Brot nehmen lassen.

China dollar attack would be 'foolhardy' says Bush

WASHINGTON (AFP) - President George W. Bush on Wednesday said China would be "foolhardy" to attempt to push down the dollar in retaliation for US pressure over Beijing's alleged currency manipulation.

Bush said he had not seen the report that Beijing was hinting at such a move, in Britain's Daily Telegraph newspaper, but warned against any attempt by China to hit back at Washington using vast foreign currency reserves.

That would be foolhardy of them to do that," Bush said in an interview with Fox News, adding he doubted the report was based on sources from the office of Chinese President Hu Jintao.

"If that's the ... position of the government, it would be foolhardy for them to do this."

A researcher at a top government think tank said Thursday China will not sell off its US dollar assets as long as there is no major disagreement with the United States.

Zhang Ming, an economist with the top Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, made the remark after Bush's comments.
"As long as there are no big upheavals in the American economy and there is no serious dispute between China and the United States, the Chinese government will not sell off US dollar assets in any major amounts," Zhang told AFP.

He said that China would stand to lose, too, if the dollar plunged as a result because an estimated two thirds of its 1.3-trillion-dollar foreign exchange reserves are tied up in US-dollar assets, mostly Treasury bonds.

"Neither China nor the United States would rashly touch the yuan exchange rate," Zhang said.

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson meanwhile said on CNBC that suggestions that China was considering selling off dollar denominated assets to hammer the already weakened US dollar were "absurd."

"We have tensions and we have to deal with tensions on both sides ... but overall, both of our countries are committed to a constructive economic relationships," said Paulson, who returned from talks with top leaders in China last week.

China said on Friday it would not be pressured into currency reform as Washington and the US Congress renewed calls for it to speed up changes to make the yuan more market-oriented.

The Telegraph reported that two officials at leading Communist Party bodies had given interviews in recent days warning that Beijing might use more than a trillion dollars in foreign reserves as a political weapon in the event of US sanctions designed to punish Beijing for yuan manipulation.

Described as China's "nuclear option" in the state media, such a move could trigger a crash of the already-falling greenback and a spike in the US bond yields, which could then dampen the beleaguered housing market and put the world's richest economy into a recession.

When asked whether such an option would hurt China more than the United States, Bush said, "Absolutely. I think so."

China reportedly holds some 900 billion dollars in a mix of US bonds.
Bush said the United States and China could resolve their differences "in a cordial way" ... as opposed to the reported option by Beijing of liquidating its vast holdings of US dollars or through legislation by the US Congress imposing sanctions on China.
He cited a high level "strategic economic dialogue" chaired by Paulson and Chinese Vice-Premier Wu Yi as an effective channel to discuss differences between the two powers.
Bush said the two powers had "a very complex trading relationship" and that it was "very important" for the US economy to have access to the vast Chinese market.
Critics of China in the United States say the yuan currency is undervalued by as much as 40 percent, making Chinese exports cheaper.
Some blame the low currency value for the loss of US manufacturing jobs and a US trade deficit with China that hit 232.5 billion dollars last year, according to Washington's figures.
Bush said Chinese goods had been beneficial for US consumers as they had helped hold down inflation, particularly in the face of rising energy prices.

http://nz.news.yahoo.com/070809/8/15wj.html

Kann schon sein das die es kontrolliert fallen lassen aber nur wenn keine Panik herrscht.

The last straw will be the value of the U.S. dollar. Already teetering on a precipice, a recession will push it over the edge. As the dollar falls, interest rates and consumer prices will rise even more sharply, compounding the problems for both housing and the economy. In fact, the fear of further dollar declines has been the most important factor in restraining the Fed's ability to cut interest rates. Rather than admit its concern over the dollar, the Fed justifies current policy with assurances that the economy is strong and is not in need of stimulative rate cuts. In Jack Nicholson fashion, since Bernanke feels investors can not handle the truth, he feeds them a lie instead.

Though our creditors will finally be forced to realize some losses on their prior investments, they will no longer bear the burden of subsidizing the U.S. economy.

With diminished competition from Americans, foreign consumers will finally gain the upper hand.

Goods previously too expensive for citizens of non-dollar economies will suddenly become affordable. Savings currently squandered on American consumption will be freed up to finance productive investment at home.

Though these positive aspects may be lost in the recent synchronized sell off in global stocks, foreign markets will soon diverge from ours. As the American caboose is decoupled from the global economic gravy train, the rest of the cars will move that much faster without all that dead weight slowing them down.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff081007.html

Hier ein lesenswerter Artikel von Doug Casey der auch auf die Situation mit China angeht.

The Unfolding Crisis – an Interview with Doug Casey

....So where is gold going? I notice that it is starting to move counter to the equity markets in this current crisis, as it should given the inflationary implications of the massive government bail outs and the increased likelihood that the Fed will be forced to rates, making the dollar a less attractive holding for foreigners. I hate making predictions, but if things continue down this path, I think we could see gold going over $1,000 within the next 12 months, and maybe even before year-end. And then the mania starts for the mining stocks.

http://news.goldseek.com/DougCasey/1186780040.php