Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Posted On: Tuesday, September 11, 2007, 1:24:00 PM EST


    A Shift Of Focus


    Author: Jim Sinclair


    Dear CIGAs,


    I get the feeling that I have taken you here before and have told you all the whys. The top callers have not been a benefit to any of you except for an instant moment. I do not recall many of them ever calling a bottom/


    Now that $715 gold is behind us it becomes support and $751 to $761 becomes the magnet.


    Focus should shift as the key fundamental is now the Treasury International Currency Flows. The thesis of three strikes and you are out can be interpreted as any three combinations of TIC below the Trade Deficit or one net negative TIC report. Following this the dollar is cooked.


    You have no idea how fast gold can get into the $880 area. Last time we had lesser fundamental circumstances favoring gold and it ran up $400 in four weeks.


    As I suggested to you the big, big shorts in gold shares are covering, but are not yet in the panic mode. That is coming.


    This is going to be your chance to slip out of those shares with derivative risk into those without derivative risk.


    So now the dollar rules gold and the impact of the Formula on the TIC report has the ability top BURY the US dollar lower than most (rational) dollar bears can possibly conceive. Now you know why $1650 is a modest expectation.


    The Empire is falling in the eyes of its common shareholders and its common share, the US dollar. The Fed has NO tools to fix this derivative meltdown so they play the role of the Financial Ostrich. Those that believe the credit crisis will pass and there is nothing to do in the meantime are morons that sing to the equity chorus.


    Eventually the lockup of all definitions of credit will result in the greatest international expansion of liquidity, which is monetary inflation on a planetary basis. That has to be followed by a price inflation of a planetary nature regardless of slower business conditions. Why do you think Asia is locking up raw materials?


    What has been speculated on by the gold bulls but did not happen in the 70s has now happened harder and deeper than the most rational gold bulls ever expected. Yet many readers still question it.


    Protect yourself. Pay off all debts. Do not carry margin on anything.
    Do this before you buy gold or derivative risk free precious and base metal shares.


    Your Watchman,
    Jim


    A picture is worth a thousand words. Perhaps more below…



    ---Hallo Wolfowitz; Bei aller verständlichen Freude bitte Urheberrechte beachten; Wenige Absätze.........
    Grüsse
    Edel Man


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/inventory/49306_Sinclair8_v2.jpg]

    sidha


    Ich kenne da auch einen der ist vermutlich jetzt Kriegsberichterstatter oder Experte in einem anderen Forum. :D
    Ein paar von den Kollegen schwirren noch rum oder sie treffen sich bei der Pommes Bude waehren die Asiaten im Goldladen stehen und Gold kaufen.


    Anyway.....I love the seasons.. :P


    ...India is the world’s largest market by volume for gold jewelry, and jewelers there typically begin stocking up on gold for that country’s most important festival, called Diwali, which this year comes in early November.


    Around the same time—after the monsoon rains and before the weather gets hot and dry—is the prime period for weddings in India. Gold, in the form of intricately crafted jewelry, is a traditional gift for Indian brides whose parents want them to have not only something beautiful they can wear, but also an enduring financial asset.


    It’s been estimated that up to 70 percent of gold jewelry sales in India occur during the wedding season, and as rapid economic growth expands that country’s middle class, it is not unreasonable to think that gold demand will grow as well. A recent story by Reuters stated that those in the Indian gold jewelry industry expect demand to hold up well as long as prices remain below 9,000 rupees per 10 grams, which currently equates to about $685 per troy ounce.


    The second largest market for gold jewelry by volume and the largest by retail value is the United States, according to the World Gold Council. The greatest demand is seen late in the year—not only from Christmas shoppers, but also from Indians and other prosperous immigrant communities that have brought their cultural affinity for gold to their new homeland.


    In mid-September, Muslims will begin their most important holiday season—the month-long observation of Ramadan. Fasting, prayers and introspection are stressed during Ramadan, but the end of the solemn holy month is marked by Eid ul-Fitr, a period of celebration and gift-giving. And in late December comes Eid ul-Adha, a four-day festival of sacrifice that also features the giving of gifts. Reduced gold-price volatility and “lifestyle” marketing is credited with raising demand across the Middle East this year.


    In China, where gold is viewed as a symbol of good fortune, a major shopping spree for gold is expected around October 1 to accompany National Day, a weeklong celebration. This would add to the strong gold demand already seen since February, the start of the Year of the “Golden Pig’, an auspicious year that comes around only once every six decades. On top of that, with the 2008 Summer Olympics taking place in Beijing, brisk sales of commemorative gold bars have been reported.


    The World Gold Council reported that gold demand in mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan was up nearly 30 percent in the second quarter of 2007 compared to the same period a year earlier. Along with jewelry, gold mementos in the shape of pigs have been popular gifts. Chinese New Year in 2008 falls in early February, and jewelers will be stocking up for that occasion as well.


    Going back to the chart, we can see these demand drivers at work. The 30-year and 15-year trend lines both show a sharp spike in relative strength in the early fall and then another one in the final six weeks of the calendar year.


    Based on the long-term record, this time of year may represent a good entry point for those who want to buy gold in advance of a seasonal upswing in demand. Managing expectations by using historical patterns can improve the chances for success but of course it doesn’t guarantee against losses.

    Zitat

    Original von Osterhase
    Gold ist in 3 Wochen um 9%
    und Silber um 10% gestiegen


    reicht doch :D


    Wer noch Gold und Silber hat, dem reicht das erstmal. :D


    Gnight 8)


    GO GATA!


    Love, love, love. A futures trader loves to see sudden, unexpected strength going into an opening, which usually reveals a zestful impatience to get a position on, resulting from expectations of much higher prices in the near future. That is just what we got this morning in the Comex gold pits, as the price went from up $1.30 to up $3 right before the bell.


    Gold, despite a weak dollar, then struggled every time it stared at $706, the point where The Gold Cartel rebuffed its price advance the past two trading sessions. Then, the unthinkable happened. The Fed’s Bernanke spoke the truth about part of the US economy … no spin for a rare change. His comments were stunning in their candor and had to leave many on Planet Wall Street semi-speechless because the news was not good for stocks, bonds, and the dollar. Regard:


    BERNANKE DOESN'T MENTION OUTLOOK FOR US ECONOMY, INTEREST RATES IN BERLIN SPEECH ON GLOBAL IMBALANCES


    BERNANKE-IF CURRENT ACCOUNT GAP PERSISTS AT CURRENT LEVEL, FOREIGNERS ULTIMATELY SATED WITH DOLLARS


    BERNANKE SAYS CURRENT PATTERN OF EXTERNAL IMBALANCES MAY PROVE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE OVER LONGER TERM


    BERNANKE - U.S. TRADE GAP UNSUSTAINABLE, BUT DEBT NOT PUTTING EXCEPTIONALLY LARGE BURDEN ON ECONOMY


    BERNANKE -GREATER THE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO ACHIEVE BALANCE, MORE DISRUPTIVE AND COSTLY THEY WILL BE


    BERNANKE -U.S. ABILITY TO SERVICE DEBT, WILLINGNESS OF FOREIGNERS TO HOLD U.S. ASSETS LIMITED


    BERNANKE SAYS AS SAVINGS GLUT DISSIPATES, REAL INTEREST RATES COULD RISE


    BERNANKE - STRONGER GROWTH ABROAD, CHANGES IN REAL EXCHANGE RATES AIDING CURRENT ACCOUNT ADJUSTMENT


    Bernanke - U.S. current account gap cannot persist


    BERLIN, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday told a European audience that huge external debts were not unduly burdening the U.S. economy now, but that over time the U.S. current account gap is unsustainable.


    "The large U.S. current account deficit cannot persist indefinitely because the ability of the United States to make debt service payments and the willingness of foreigners to hold U.S. assets in their portfolios are both limited," he said in a speech at the Brandenburgische Akademie der Wissenschaften.


    Bernanke did not discuss the outlook for the U.S. economy or interest rates in his speech.


    The central bank head said that if U.S. current account deficits were to persist at current levels, foreign investors would eventually have enough of dollar assets. It would be difficult for the United States to finance its debt at a reasonable cost at that point, he said.


    The global savings glut -- flows of capital from emerging economies into established economies, particularly the United States -- remains in place, Bernanke said.


    As that glut dissipates, reducing the supply of financial capital from emerging economies, real interest rates should rise, he said.


    In the meantime, economic growth in developed economies in recent years has raised demand for saving and contributed to rising real interest rates, he said. Term premiums have increased from low levels recently in part because of recent market volatility, he added.


    -END-


    Well, this is as good as it gets for gold and the price responded accordingly, exploding up to $713+ in a very short period of time. The Gold Cartel was reeling. What was especially nice to see is that gold rallied $9 and the dollar barely budged. Gold made its move on its own again. The euro went up 5 ticks net and the yen remained lower.


    As night follows day, The Gold Cartel put out a distress call to the cabal crowd and to others in the Working Group on Financial Markets. The gold surge was stopped cold and the dollar was held steady. Nevertheless, the momentum for our team continues to build and build.


    The gold open interest fell 742 contracts to 364,361 and the silver open interest dropped 504 contracts to 107,142.


    Our STALKER source called. He says Kruggerands and Sovereign coins are nearly impossible to purchase without paying outrageous premiums. "Fractional golds" are available, but their premiums are even higher.


    The action in silver remains HORRENDOUS. Have no idea why. Just have to think silver will rocket out of here just when most give up on it. Those long gold and short silver are cleaning up right now.


    Adrian brought the following to our attention yesterday:


    "It should be noted that $700 gold is a very crucial level; we have only closed above $700 six times in 26 years. Four were in May 2006 and now 2 are in 2007. We are only $18 away from a 26 year high and judging by the HUI nobody cares too much. These are very, very significant developments and it is bullish that no one is paying attention."


    To elaborate and give a further idea of just how crucial his points are, we only need go to the gold weekly and monthly price charts:


    Weekly gold
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/ZG/W


    On the weekly we can see how last week's rally and Friday close took out massive resistance and broke out of a huge base, unlike gold’s spike last year. It also represents the second highest weekly close since 1980.


    Monthly gold
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/ZG/M


    Should gold close above $700 by the end of September, it will be the highest monthly close since 1980. In May 2006, as veteran Café members know, the US Government ORDERED the price down when gold spiked above $720 (this info came our way via a US Senator from Washington). By the end of May 2006 gold had been bludgeoned off its high and was on its way to tanksville. It has taken a year and one half to make its comeback.


    It seems it is always this way, but if there ever was a time for The Gold Cartel to punish gold, or at least prevent it from rallying sharply, this is it, with the sort of growing financial mess the Fed is facing, and with the decisions they are going to have to make.


    As always, it all comes down to what kind of ammunition (available central bank gold) does The Gold Cartel have to throw at the market? How much did they use up the past 18 months to keep gold where it is? This is the key month. For if gold is able to close above $700 a few more weeks and we get a monthly close above $700, it will set off a whole bunch of technical bells and whistles, and likely to bring on another slew of big picture physical market buying.


    It won’t be dull.


    The Gold Cartel is facing THE PERFECT STORM, which will make their ever present effort to prevent gold from soaring nearly impossible in the months to come.


    Among the myriad of reasons why…


    *The dollar is toast, fundamentally and technically:


    September dollar (down .15 to 79.67, yet another low for the move)
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/97


    *Crude oil could do anything to the upside, as closed at an all-time high today):


    October crude oil ($78.23 up 74 cents per barrel)
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/A7

    Auch Jim Willie äußerst optimistisch für Gold & Hui. Nächstes Ziel 740 , dann 850 und dann im Verlauf der kommenden Monate sollte ein Angriff auf $1000 folgen. Bei den Minen erwartet er, daß die Produzenten zuerst am besten performen werden, später Juniors. Die Explorer könnten etwas zurückbleiben wegen ihrem Finanzierungsbedarf. Er glaubt, die schwachen Hände seien im August grosso modo abgeworfen worden und bis im Winter läuft der HUI Richtung 440, ab 400 dann erst so richtige Partylaune.


    GOLD MINING STOCKS BEGIN TO WAKE UP


    The gold & silver mining stocks had been in a slumber, but seem to have awakened. It might have taken an ugly ugly ugly day in mid-August, when a brutal selloff occurred, accentuated by huge volume, for the mining stocks to perk up. That was a climax washout. Weak hands are gone. Nothing like a bargain offering to provide a cattle prod with electric shock in the hind end to incite some animal juices. Until the HUI hits 380 and 400, the party hats will remain in the closet. One can be sure that the signals are all there, as the favorable autumn season comes. The HUI responds ultimately to the gold price, and gold mining stocks will eventually follow the gold price, and head much higher with growing volume. Gold can rise when monetary medicine is being prepared, but gold & silver mining stocks will rise enormously when that monetary medicine is finally administered. In a big way! The HUI index is heading toward 440 in this winter cycle, in a massive momentum swing.


    THE BIG DISCONNECT, A GREAT SIGN!!!


    The first beneficiaries are the larger and medium sized mining stocks. The next beneficiaries are the smallcap and tiny junior mining stocks. A split might come for a period of time, where small mining metal producers fare better than explorers who must fulfill ongoing capital needs.


    grüsse


    auratico


    http://financialsense.com/fsu/…als/willie/2007/0912.html

    Hoert sich gut an was Jim Willie sagt...mal schaun wann die medizin wirkt.


    ...vorsichtshalber bei 430 lasse ich etwas Dampf ab und gleiche ein wenig aus im Fall es geht kurz wieder auf die 390 bei dem Hoechstand.
    Ich war sehr frech im August mit meinen Einkaeufen, weniger Risiko in 2008 tut den Nerven gut.


    Funny, ich habe mir auch ein paar Traummarken gesetzt fuer den Bullrun beim HUI : 440 - 550 -770 -990- 1220 -1550 ...bis 2012.


    Bei DJ 11000 sollten einige Stoploss trigger los gehen bis 9000 und mehr bei Panik.


    300% Gewinn bis dort hin koennte moeglich sein wenn man Gold frei laufen laesst.


    Den USD unterschaetze ich nicht, der koennte nochmal aufatmen bevor er weiter so faellt.


    Z.zt sind mir zu viele USD short, das macht mich stutzig.
    Irgendeine Spritze kommt da noch auch wenn sie nicht lange wirkt.


    Die Chinesen koennen jederzeit dem USD den Todesstoss versetzen, auf die muss man aufpassen in erster linie.


    ...Gold & silver mining stocks will rise enormously when that monetary medicine is finally administered. In a big way ! :)
    Weihnachten koennte gut ausfallen fuer die Goldbugs, am besten alles laufen lassen und abwarten was sonst noch kommt.


    In den naechsten 6 Wochen wird sich noch einiges abspielen.


    Gnight


    XEX

    germoney


    Kurz gesagt haengt Silber Gold mit ca. einem Dollar hinterher.
    Wichtig ist was der POS in Euro oder SFR macht, was hilft es wenn Silber um 4 % steigt aber der Euro auch zum Dollar.
    Ich kann einige Prognosen mit POS 20 USD/1000 $ POG bis Ende 2007 nicht glauben, schoen waers aber wenn es so kommt.
    Fast 17 $ waere schon eine riesen Ueberraschung bis ende 2007, auch die 777 POG.
    IMO die 11.60 $ POS sieht man nie mehr wieder.
    Neuster Ratschlag von einigen Analysten ist 80/20 Gold/Silber streuen.
    5 -10% physisch reicht voll aus, Embry hat 6% physisch Silber.
    25% physisch Gold und ca. 8% Silber im Depot und man kann gut schlafen.
    Silber ist eben ein Looooong time investment und sehr emotional.
    Immer mit einem Rueckschlag rechnen dann ist man nicht entaeuscht und freut sich wenn keiner kommt. :D

    @all,


    Meine Tochter(10) steht kurz vor der Mathe-Vergleichsarbeit und nervt mich ständig um Aufgaben an. Es geht um "große Zahlen" und Umrechnen von Einheiten.


    Irgendeine Kolumne TED BUTLERS im Kopf, verlange ich, die Summe von 1Milliarde, auf`s Papier zu bringen. Okay, die Nullen-Anzahl stimmte!


    Ich diktiere weiter:


    1 Unze=31,105 Gramm


    Wieviel Tonnen Silber gibt es, wenn die Weltlagerbestände eine Milliarde Unzen betragen?


    Na klar, ich habe dann geholfen, eine Tabelle aufzumachen und das Komma zu verrücken.



    Liegen wirklich nur nur 30-35 Tausend Tonnen `rum??????


    Bei einer Jahresförderung von 20.000 Tonnen?


    Oder habe ich irgendwie, mich völlig falsch verlesen? ?(

    ... werden wir an allen technologischen Ecken und Enden reichlich Silber brauchen.
    ... und das wertvollste Silber ist das, welches bereits dem Boden entnommen wurde ...
    ... würde mich nicht wundern, wenn im Laufe der Zeit Silber seltener als eine Gehirnzelle bei Brittney Spears bekommen würde.


    okay, von Nicht-Musik zu Musik...höre nebenbei gerade Eric Burden/Animals...


    "When I was young"


    "Times were so much colder then,"
    "my Father was a soldier then... when I was young"
    ...
    "Smoked my first cigarette at ten,"
    "for Girls, I had a bad jam... when I was young"
    ...
    "Met my first love at thirteen,
    "she was brown and I was pretty green... when I was young"
    ...


    Gruss


    Germoney

    As a general rule, it is foolish to do just what other people are doing,
    because there are almost sure to be too many people doing the same thing.
    William Stanley Jevons (1835-1882)

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von germoney ()

    auf die Schnelle:


    Barclay's iShares Silver (SLV) 139.067.911,1 oz , lt eigener Angabe 4.325,5 mT (metrische Tonnen)
    Central Fund of Canada (CEF) 36.630.054 oz., also ca. 1.139 mT
    dazu von den Comex Warehouses den "eligible" Anteil 59.528.225 oz also ca. 1.851,2 mT
    dazu von den Comex Warehouses den "registered" Anteil, (im Kundenbesitz) 74.318.086 also ca. 2311.1 mT
    ... es sind noch kleinere ETF's da, oder Eigentums-Gemeinschaften, deren Grösse in der Gesamtheit
    wohl eher weit unter 2000 mt liegen sollte, aber ich nehme diesen Wert als Gesamtzahl für alle unberücksichtigten.


    4.326T
    1.139T
    1.851T
    2.000T
    ______


    9316T


    Unter der Berücksichtigung, dass ich hier noch Posten vergessen habe,
    aber um einiges weniger als 20.000 metrische Tonnen ist absolut realistisch.


    Weiteres lässt ist beim U.S. Geological Service, USGS ersehen:
    http://minerals.usgs.gov/miner…ity/silver/silvemcs07.pdf


    ... obwohl der gelegentlich zu optimistisch ist (beim Rohöl ist er es allemal)





    Gruss


    Germoney

    As a general rule, it is foolish to do just what other people are doing,
    because there are almost sure to be too many people doing the same thing.
    William Stanley Jevons (1835-1882)

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von germoney ()

    germoney


    Stimmt bis auf die 7 T die bei mir eingebucht sind...0.035% der Weltproduktion, eine Tagesproduktion fuer Eldo. :D


    Koennten auch nur Taler sein die effektiv bei SLV und CEF vorhanden sind.... :rolleyes: :D


    Mein Alchemist versucht die umzuwandeln in Gold, der hat aber bis jetzt seine Probleme. :D


    ...von wegen ich bin kein Silberbug ?.... :D


    ..jetzt wisst ihr warum Pro Aurum keine Muenzen mehr hat. :D


    Vielleicht spinnt auch nur mein Taschenrechner. :rolleyes:


    XEX

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