Hier ein kleiner Auszug aus dem aktuellen HatTrickLetter http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/willie062008.html von Jim Willie:
ZitatAs the oil supply production falters further in Mexico, a struggle will ensue as to whether the US receives less oil, or the Mexican customers receive less oil. This has been my concern for months, expressed regularly in the Hat Trick Letter. Now Mexico has finally announced a notable cutback in oil supply to the Untied States of almost 150 thousand barrels per day, another news story totally ignored by the US press networks. One would think that the obvious answer is for domestic customers to receive their own Mexican supply. If they decide to cut back on US oil exports, then the Mexican trade gap will be subjected to enormous deficits. Their Peso will drop in value badly, leading to widespread systemic price inflation EVEN WORSE THAN NOW. If however, they decide to deny domestic customers and satisfy US oil demand, then the Mexican economy will suffer shortages of gasoline and petrochemical products (like lubricants, synthetic fibers, fertilizer). Gasoline prices will skyrocket in highly visible fashion, leading to possible riots. This is a ‘lose-lose’ decision. So far, it seems cutbacks to US shipments and retention of domestic supply is the direction that Mexican authorities have chosen. The Mexican energy picture has been deteriorating for some time, with an impact on their national finances soon to be felt. The elephant oil field Cantarell had been on an established 15% annual decline in year 2006 and year 2007, offset by expansion elsewhere in smaller volume from other Mexican projects. Now the Cantarell decline rate is 30% annually.
=> Wieviel zusätzlichen Öloutput hat Saudi-Arabien gerade angekündigt? 200.000 bpd. Hm - falls nicht diese GESAMTE Zusatzproduktion direkt in die USA gehen sollte, wovon man vermutlich dann doch nicht ausgehen kann, wird die saudische Zusatzanstrengung noch nicht einmal den Exportausfall aus Mexiko in die USA wettmachen. Auch ansonsten ist der Willie-Artikel ("Failed States: Mexico & California") ganz lesenswert. Er prognostiziert einen dramatischen ökonomischen Abschwung Mexikos und einen möglichen Kollaps des Landes mit Flüchtlingsströmen ins ebenfalls gebeutelte Kalifornien.
Got Oil?