Der Euro wird auf Parität fallen
Possible Europe-US trade war could push euro into parity with the dollar
The euro risks falling to parity with the US dollar for the first time since late 2022 if a new transatlantic trade war weakens the already struggling eurozone economy, analysts have warned.
The euro sank below $1.04 against the dollar, the weakest level since November 2022, last Friday after a survey of European purchasing managers showed eurozone private sector output has fallen this month.
The threat of new US tariffs on imports from Europe has pushed the euro lower since the US election – it was worth $1.09 on 5 November but has since dropped against the dollar for three weeks running. It ended last week at $1.041, but could have further to fall once Donald Trump’s new administration lays out its economic plans.
Trump has floated the idea of imposing a 60% to 100% levy on Chinese products and a 10% to 20% levy on goods from the rest of the world, which would make European exports to the US less competitive and could damage economic growth.
Money market pricing suggests investors now price a 50% chance of a half-point, or 50-basis point, rate cut at the European Central Bank’s December meeting, with a smaller quarter-point cut now fully priced in. The eurozone deposit rate is 3.25%, following a cut last month.
Es wird gerade der Euro plattgemacht (MA schreibt schon von 0,85 nächstes Jahr), in bisher drei Schritten:
1. Atacams (USD) fliegen nach Russland, StormShadow (GBP) auch, klaro. Und provozieren russische Reaktion. -->Kapitalflucht aus Europa geht weiter.
2. Trump has floated the idea of imposing [..] a 10% to 20% levy which would make European exports to the US less competitive and could damage economic growth.
3. 50-basis point, rate cut at the European Central Bank’s December meeting, with a smaller quarter-point cut now fully priced in. The eurozone deposit rate is 3.25%, following a cut last month.
