Auszug aus dem Börsenbrief von Gwen Preston vom 1. Juni 2022. Sehr interessante Sichtweisen und Gedanken aus meiner Sicht dabei:
„Perhaps I’m pessimistic in thinking that this spells a sea change for gold investors. But I am worried that the last decade of risk being rewarded and of all kinds of new sectors providing leverage to exciting price gains (cannabis, crypto, NFTs) has robbed gold stocks of the unique appeal they used to hold. Gold stocks used to represent risk – smart risk, as it was grounded in a macroeconomic argument for gold, but still risk – and, when they worked, they would hand out returns on a scale that attracted attention across the investment spectrum.
The rise of risk means options for high risk, high return investing have proliferated, robbing gold of that unique appeal. And now I just don’t know if a rising gold price will ever pull generalist investors towards gold stocks like it used to.
Let me be clear: I think there’s upside ahead in the price of gold. I am just getting less certain that such upside will bring generalists flooding into gold stocks. It certainly didn’t over the last two years: while those $20 billion flowed into physical gold funds, $1 billion flow out of gold mining stocks.
Gold discoveries will always generate excitement and big returns. Great Bear is a good example – it went up 100 times over four years when gold stocks were sideways at best. And I am confident in gold as a holding, and in gold miners’ balance sheets, and in the investment case for gold as globalization shrinks back and politics realign, new monetary realities be damned.
But for compelling fundamentals, green metals are just making more sense. Copper, nickel, uranium, silver, and lithium (more on that next week) are inarguably undersupplied as demand ramps higher. The investment case for these metals is just rock solid and their stocks should appeal to a broad swath of investors (young and old, risk-seeking and conservative, those driven by green motives and those simply seeking value). The same cannot be said for gold, no matter how much I wish it could.
It has taken time for me to accept this new line of thought. And I’m not sure I’m right – it really does all depend on how the market and economy fare through this tightening event, as a long grind downward might actually cut into risk appetite for real, which would give gold back some of its old advantages.
As such, I will not make dramatic portfolio changes. I still love gold explorers, think discoveries will always pay investors handsomely, believe that good projects well managed in the right moment can provide very nice returns, and see strong upside for the metal itself.
But to balance the gold component of the portfolio, I will lean towards green metals for the next while.“