Entgegen den offiziellen Verlautbarungen von Geithner & Co können die USA angesichts explodierender Schuldenlasten gar nicht wirklich an einem starken Dollar interessiert sein - das ist nichts weiter als leicht durchschaubare Propaganda. Das derzeitige Ideal wäre aus der Binnensicht der USA ein kontrollierter Verfall des Dollar auf leisen Sohlen, mit deutlichen Gegenrallys als Symbol der relativen Stärke. Aber kann es gelingen, die Gläubiger von einer solchen Strategie zu überzeugen - einen schleichenden Verfall hinzunehmen mit der Vertröstung auf eine bessere Zukunft statt der kurzfristigen, böseren Alternative eines viel gravierenderen Verlustes?
Hier weist wieder einmal einer darauf hin, dass die Situation der Dollarhalter sehr dem in der Verhaltenspsychologie berühmten Muster des "Gefangenendilemmas" ähnelt:
Currencies can have significant volatility even within long term trends, due to short squeezes and official intervention. Forex trading is for professionals only, as most amateurs become fooled by the leverage and the opacity of the market's positional dynamics, ie. they don't know who the patsy is at the table.
That being said, there is an interesting aspect to the currant position of the dollar as the long time, but fading, world's reserve currency known as The Prisoner's Dilemma.
In a situation such as this, the country which quietly sheds dollars first takes a lesser loss on their reserves than those who hold, but also risks punishment by the US and the G7 for deviating from the consensus of central banks and their financial engineers.
This is further complicated by the entanglement of some exporting countries in their own mercantilist support for large dollar surpluses. This requires a replacement for the dollar to be phased in slowly, and to gain support amongst non-US trading partners of the major exporting countries. The matter of the petrodollar is also an important aspect, but can probably wait until the move out of the dollar is well underway.
Is there anyone buying US dollar Agency Debt these days besides the Fed? It used to be a favorite among the Central Banks, but was dumped them in an amazingly short period of time once the perception of risk changed around the world. Almost overnight in Central Bank time.
This sort of historic change always starts slowly, first a trickle, then a trend, but thereafter can quickly become a torrent.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
Grüße
auratico