Egon von Greyerz wagt - mit Schwerpunkt USA und UK - eine düstere Prognose für die kommenden Monate - er sieht sie als den Beginn einer traurigen Ära:
- Die steigende Arbeitslosigkeit wird die staatlichen Defizite weiter hochschnellen lassen.
- Noch im Herbst 2009 dürfte es zur nächsten Stufe der Bankenkrise kommen. Diese wird noch schlimmere Folgen haben als bisher, weil diesmal niemand wirklich damit rechnet. In Ermangelung privater Kapitalgeber wird der Staat allein sich der Bankbilanzen annehmen müssen.
- Die Bondmärkte für Staatsschulden werden zusammenbrechen - zuerst in UK und USA.
- Hyperinflation ist ein Währungsereignis - sie kommt, wenn mit den Bondmärkten das Vertrauen in die Währungen zusammenbricht.
In Europa wahrscheinlich die Baltischen Staaten und andere osteuropäische Staaten - viele andere werden starke Inflation erleben. Ende der Wohlfahrtsstaaten etc.
US$ und englisches Pfund werden zuerst verlieren, dann auch später der Euro. Im Gold will er den monetären Gewinner in seinem extrem düsteren Ausblick auf die kommende Zeit erkennen.
So what is likely to happen next?
Unemployment will increase government deficits
First unemployment will rise substantially as outlined above and the effects of the unemployed masses will have major repercussions on the economy. This will lead to government deficits growing substantially. Tax revenue is already falling at alarming rates in the US and UK and most other countries but it will get a lot worse. Government expenditure will rise rapidly due to the mass unemployment. Taxes will rise but this will be like getting water out of a stone – there won’t be much revenue to tax. And if Vat or sales taxes are increased this will kill consumption even more. In addition governments will have to implement more programmes to help the poor, hungry and homeless. This will lead to more money printing.
Next phase of bank problems
Secondly the next phase of problems in the financial system will start by the autumn of 2009 at the latest. Since this will come as a total shock to everyone the effect will be much worse than in 2008. So far US banks have taken losses of $1.1 trillion. Conservative estimates put total losses at $2.2 trillion but realistic estimates are around $4 trillion and this excludes any problems in the $600 trillion to $1 quadrillion derivatives market a big part of which is worthless. In the next round of capital raising for banks there will only be one investor – the government. Thus there will be more money printing.
Government paper will collapse – first in the US and UK
With the escalation of money printing markets will be flooded with government paper which nobody wants, leaving governments to buy its own junk. The two countries with the worst problems are the UK and the US and their precarious situation will emerge first. Within the next few months rating agencies are likely to downgrade both countries’ debt. This will lead to the value of the treasury bonds and gilts collapsing and interest rates quickly moving up into the teens. The higher rates will make the financing costs of the debt to up exponentially leading to more money printing and higher interest rates. This is the “perfect” vicious circle that will end in a hyperinflationary depression.
Hyperinflation is a currency driven event
For many years we have been saying that this crisis will by hyperinflationary. The issuing of unlimited government paper will lead to the rest of the world selling their holdings of US/UK treasuries as well as selling the dollar and the pound. Most so called financial experts have been predicting a deflationary recession/depression since they don’t see the demand pull that they think is the cause of hyperinflation. We have been one of the very few (together with the very wise Jim Sinclair) to understand that hyperinflation is a currency driven event. The issuing of unlimited government paper outlined above will lead to the US dollar as well as the pound collapsing. It is the collapse of the currency which leads to hyperinflation. Without fail in history every hyperinflationary event has been caused by a collapsing currency not by demand pull.
Many other nations will also experience hyperinflation such as the Baltic States, certain Eastern European and Asian Countries. Many more countries will have high inflation.
THE DARK YEARS
The Dark Years will be extremely severe for most countries both financially and socially. In many countries in the Western world there will be a severe depression and it will be the end of the welfare state. Most private and state pension schemes are also likely to collapse. It will be a worldwide depression but some countries may only have a deep recession. There will be famine, homelessness and misery resulting in social as well as political unrest. Different type of government leaders and regimes are likely to result from this.
FINANCIAL MARKETS
Stockmarkets
The correction up in stockmarkets has probably finished but there is a possibility that it will continue for another couple of months. What is important is that it is a correction (we predicted it already back in January) and it will soon lead to a strong resumption of the downtrend. In the Dow Jones, a break of the trend line at 6400 would lead to a projected decline of at least 90% from the top. Almost all major world markets point to similar declines. This sounds incredible but bearing in mind that the Dow Jones fell 90% in the 1930’s and bearing in mind our discussion in the Dark Years paragraph above, this kind of target is not impossible.
Some commodity stocks as well as gold and silver mining shares will be major beneficiaries from the Crisis.
Bonds
We forecast at the beginning of the year that US long rates would go up and they have almost doubled since. But this is only the beginning since we expect US and UK long rates to reach at least the mid teens in the next 2-3 years. Interest rates in all countries will go up substantially in the next few years.
Currencies
The dollar and the pound will have very substantial falls in the autumn of 2009. At some later stage the Euro will also weaken as a result of certain countries breaking away from the Euro area.
Gold
The currency which will be the major beneficiary from the Crisis is Gold. We have invested in gold since 2002 when we saw the Crisis coming. Gold has trebled since then. But this is just the beginning. The next major move will take place in the coming 4-5 months and it will be major. Gold for wealth preservation purposes should be held directly by the investor and stored outside the banking system in his name. Holding gold in ETF form, futures or owning part of gold bars that you don’t have personal access to is not wealth preservation.
http://www.24hgold.com/english…tor=Egon+von+Greyerz&mk=1
grüsse
auratico
