wenn dann starte richtig ! und nimm die die 15min zeit und melde dich per skype bei mir ..sieh oben !
Das ist wie beim Tennis oder was auch immer ... man kann Autodetaktisch sich viel selbst beibringen mit einer menge Zeit und fehlschlägen ! Doch die Investition von zeit in einen "Lehrer" oder Berater wie mich der einen was von anfang an zeigt bringt schneller den nachhaltigen Erfolg.
Machen wir.
Nur noch etwas prinzipiellesl zu traden/hedgen...für Trading mag Deine Plattform preisgünstig sein. Relativ...wenn ein 0,1 CFD 20 Euro kostet, ist das relativ teuer zu Interactive Brokers, wo der komplette F-DAX Roundturn etwas um den Dreh kostet. Aber klassisches hedgen kommt nicht ohne die Parameter der klassischen Option aus. Ist sicher eine Kunst und zeitaufwändig sich da einzuarbeiten. Aber für Fondsmanager wohl tägliches Brot:
Hier ein topaktueller Blick ins 'Nähkästchen' von John Hussman:
Over the past few months, the stock market has been characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising yields syndrome that has historically proved unrewarding and often particularly dangerous for investors. It's important to underscore that even in post-war data, and even if we assume that the economy is in a typical post-war recovery, this particular syndrome has been unrewarding, on average, which places the Strategic Growth Fund in a fully hedged investment stance (essentially, the Fund holds long-put / short-call index option combinations having a notional value equal to the value of the stocks we hold).
As in 2007, the unusually low level of implied volatility, coupled with the syndrome of overextended conditions, has prompted us to establish a tight "staggered strike" position, raising the strike prices of our defensive put options close to the level of the S&P 500. Compared with a standard matched-strike hedge (long put options / short call options having the same strike price and expiration), a staggered position typically maintains about 1% of assets in additional put option premium. The Fund does not establish option combinations where more than one side is "in the money" when the position is initiated. Since we keep the new strike price of the put options below the level of the market, the potential downside (compared with a standard hedge) is limited to a modest loss of time premium if the market continues to advance.
Conversely, if the market declines below the strike price of the puts, the hedge provides a tighter defense for the stocks we hold, which can be helpful if the early sell-off is indiscriminate. This requires us to take day-to-day fluctuations with a slight grain of salt, because once the put options go "in the money" (i.e. the S&P 500 drops below the strike price of the puts), if the market then reverses back toward or above our strike prices before we have a good opportunity to reset our strike prices, we can give back some or all of our recent gains from those puts. So the puts can't lose more than the amount of time premium we originally invest, even if the market advances, but can result in gains (that are occasionally transient) if the market drops below their strike prices.
I note this because when the S&P 500 moved well above 1200 in recent weeks and implied volatility dropped toward 16-17%, we raised our strikes to the 1200 level at relatively low cost. Those strikes are now in-the-money, so we expect to be well-protected against the impact of general market declines. Though we continually adjust our position to reduce the potential for "give back" (as we did near the market close on Friday), it is probably best to anticipate a few transient day-to-day gains and give-backs if the S&P 500 extends its decline substantially below 1200.
More generally, the primary source of our day-to-day fluctuations when we are hedged is the difference in performance between the stocks held by the Fund and the indices we use to hedge. For example, the most notable source of fluctuation in the Strategic Growth Fund last week was not hedging, but volatility in restaurant stocks that led the recent rally.
Geek's Note: This asymmetry or "curvature" in the profile of option returns is called "gamma" (the second derivative of the option value with respect to price). Ideally, you would prefer to let this curvature run, and only adjust your position at the turning points of a market trend. In practice, we look for short-term overbought and oversold conditions to reset our strikes - a practice known as "gamma scalping." Gamma is really what you are paying for when you purchase an option. If the actual short-term volatility of the market is greater than the implied volatility that was priced into the option when you established the position, effective gamma scalping can substantially reduce the impact of time decay even if the market is ultimately unchanged.
Deshalb gehe ich hier auch von übergeordnet korrektiven Bewegungsmustern aus. Zu den blauen Kreisen: ich sehe links das A und das B einer großen ABC Korrektur die schließlich bei ~ 680 im Oktober 2008 mit dem C endete.
