Gold an August Low?
Sunday, July 19, 2026 By: Martin Armstrong
Gold remains under pressure in the near term into August, largely because people are NOT
viewing the Iran War as a major geopolitical threat. They seem to buy the press's rendition that Iran
can be easily destroyed and wiped off the face of the planet. The oil market also appears to be
ignoring the Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, illustrating that this is a typical Neonazi
strategy where Zelensky's hatred of the Russian people takes precedence over the long-term safety
of the Ukrainian people.
There is a real danger here that our computer will be correct and the risk of war extends into 2027.
Attacking Russian infrastructure deep inside Russia creates pressure on Putin to retaliate visibly.
Russia’s major missile and drone attack on Kyiv on July 19 followed an intensification of Ukrainian
strikes on Russian oil, maritime and logistical targets, although it is difficult to prove that any
particular Russian barrage was caused exclusively by one Ukrainian attack.
This strategy of Zelensky is highly dangerous because it (1) either forces Putin to get more
aggressive or (2) results in the overthrow of Putin in favor of a Russian hardliner. Russia has turned
to conducting sustained attacks on Ukraine’s electricity, gas, and heating systems just as Zelensky is
trying to do to Russia. Russian strikes have cut Ukrainian domestic gas production sharply and have
left Ukraine preparing for another extremely difficult winter. This does not end well because
Zelensky refuses to allow the ethnic Russians of the Donbas to live in peace separate from the
Ukrainian ethnic hatred of the Russian people. Without the Minsk Agreement simply being
honored, there does not appear to be any resolution.
Putin has been justifying his restraint, arguing that a change in the leadership in Ukraine and the EU
will end this hostility toward Russia and they can return to peaceful coexistence. I admire that
position, but it is unrealistic. The EU needs Russian blood and assets to even survive.I originally thought we would get a bounce from June into August, but the bounce was weak.
Instead of a rally into August, it is smelling more like a decline into early August amid a
convergence of three elections coming to a head in Russia (September), Israel (October), and the
USA (November).
In 2019, I wrote: "Consequently, this World War III is more likely to be a combination of class
warfare and settling old scores." The year 2026 is a Panic Cycle in international war. A Panic Cycletypically moves to the extremes in both directions. We moved toward peace, and as that declines,
we flip and become more aggressive. So far, we have followed that pattern.
In September, we have the Russian Duma elections. This holds the risk of putting pressure on Putin
to either get aggressive or step aside. Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against Russia is doing
more than just destroying Russian energy/military targets. After months of increasingly frequent
attacks against Russian oil infrastructure, ports, logistics hubs, and other military sites, Zelensky is
undermining one of President Vladimir Putin’s greatest promises to the Russian people: that they
could live their lives untouched by the “special military operation.”
Former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov has publicly stated that Ukraine’s ability to push
back after four and a half years of fighting represents a “significant change” in the conflict - and one
that could ultimately force the Kremlin to respond with a serious new escalation. The Kremlin has
changed the definition of this action from a “special military operation” to Russia is now at war
with Ukraine. The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has publicly stated that the ”special military
operation” had become “a real war” and blamed Western countries backing Ukraine for the
supposed shift. He said:
“There is a war going on, this is a real war. Do you know why it’s a war? Because it all started as a
special military operation. It continues as a war because behind Kyiv stand Berlin, Paris, The
Hague, Oslo, and, unfortunately, Washington.”The West wants this war. Zelensky was told to keep fighting to kill as many Russians as possible.
Johnson has flown to Ukraine numerous times to prevent peace. He flew there to instruct Zelensky
to go to the White House and embarrass Trump publicly to try to keep the money flowing to fund
Europe's war.
McCain was at Maidan encouraging a revolution and that the United States would stand behind
them. Can you imagine if a Russian addressed the crowd on January 6th, encouraging them to
overthrow the government? The Neocons have used Ukraine for their purpose to wage war against
Russia, and they never cared about the Ukrainian people or their country.In January 2017, Senators Graham and McCain jointly announced that they would introduce a
bipartisan bill to impose additional sanctions on Russia. This was a direct response to Russia's
alleged hacking and interference in the U.S. presidential election. This action placed them in direct
opposition to President-elect Donald Trump, who at the time was seeking a more conciliatory
approach to U.S.-Russia relations. Senator Graham explicitly stated that the proposed sanctions
were designed to target Russia's most vulnerable financial and energy sectors.
The Inspector General’s report on the FBI’s investigation into Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign also
proved John McCain was feeding info to Comey to stop Trump and any peace with Russia. McCain
provided the FBI the Christopher Steele dossier, which was funded by Hillary and proven to be
fake. It was that report which McCain received from Hillary that was then used before the Foreign
Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) court by the FBI to obtain the wiretap on former Donald
Trump campaign official Carter Page. This was even AFTER the Department of Justice found no
probable cause for the wiretap.
Hopefully, if there is a God, Lindsey Graham is locked up in hell for eternity. I never met such a
vile piece of shit with no regard for humanity other than John McCain. It was Lindsey Graham whoactually cheered that the Ukrainians would fight to the last person. Graham said during a 2023 visit
to Kiev:
"The Russians are dying. This is the best money we've ever
spent."
His rhetoric has always been for world domination and the total destruction of Russia. The Pax
Romana is a roughly 200-year period in ancient Rome identified as a golden age of increased and
sustained Roman imperialism and prosperity and stability. That was accomplished not by ruthless
power and sanctions that never work, but by economic INCLUSIONISM. When people benefit
from trade, that promotes peace. This raw hatred of people like McCain and Graham promotes
death and endless war. They are no different from the worst of the worst. They followed the same
path as Hitler: ethnic hatred, and peace is attainable ONLY by eliminating all opponents by force.
The British Neocon, Boris Johnson, is another vile curse upon humanity. For whatever reason, he
decided to wage war against Russia from the outset. His personal hatred of the Russian people will
not only sacrifice Ukrainian people, but he is also willing to sacrifice British and European lives
just so he can feel victory in this chess game he has turned into a blood sport.They appear to be degenerate psychopaths with no regard for human life but their own. However,
clinical psychopathy is defined by a specific set of traits: a profound lack of empathy, grandiosity,
manipulativeness, impulsivity, and shallow emotions. While these traits can certainly appear in
politics, most leaders who advocate for war do not fit this profile. In fact, psychopaths are typically
too impulsive and incapable of long-term strategic planning to successfully navigate the complex
bureaucratic and diplomatic machinery required to launch a major war. These characters seem
to genuinely believe in a "manifest destiny," the spread of their political ideology (e.g.,
communism, democracy, or religious caliphates), or the "civilizing" of other nations. They are often
true believers who see war as a moral or historical necessity, not a sadistic game.
The uncomfortable reality in Washington is that every politician knows exactly how powerful the
pro-Israel lobbying network has become. AIPAC has spent decades directing enormous sums into
congressional races. Politicians on both sides of the aisle understand the consequences of crossing
that machine. Whether one supports Israel or not, pretending this influence does not exist is absurd.
Netanyahu has been manipulating American military power exactly as Boris Johnson and Zelensky.I tend to believe that these people are sick. They adopted this "manifest destiny," following
Khruschchev's boast that we will bury you, which was a view that communism would defeat
capitalism. They got their backs up and took the position that they would spread capitalism and
democracy to the world, also by sheer force.Technically, a break below 3883 could trigger a test of 3500. We expect the volatility to rise for the
next three weeks. A break to new lows will point to a low in August during the week of August 3rd,
where we also have a Panic Cycle. The wildcard remains Ukraine vs Russia, not the Middle East.
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Die 'gute Fee' hat sich zwar nicht ganz genau ans Datum gehalten, aber da will ich mal nicht so sein... 
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