Jim Puplava und John Loeffler fachsimpeln ueber Depression und Recession. Die Argumente ueberzeugen eher fuer eine Depression, in die wir gerade reinlaufen.
Audio
Das Transcript zum Nachlesen.
Vielen Dank für den interessanten Artikel. Im Folgenden die aus meiner Sicht wichtigen Passagen:
...
"JIM: Absolutely, because if you devalue the currency by 40 percent or 50 percent – don’t know what that number is going to be – you just reduced the purchasing power of the person making 10 dollars an hour, he’s going to be making six dollars an hour in terms of purchasing equivalent. So the things that people need and have to have for living will go up by an incredible amount. You’ll see commodity prices – whether it’s energy, food or base metals or anything – it’s going to go up by an equal amount by the amount of the devaluation of the currency. So that’s exactly where we’re going and it’s one of the reasons why I disagree with the deflationists. You can’t have the Fed increase its balance sheet by 100 percent here in just a six week period of time without this money showing up somewhere; and eventually the outcome – we’re going – I mean if you take the recession pattern and government response of the 1930s, that’s why, John, I think its very important that if you want to find out where we're heading, I highly recommend you pick up a book called America’s Great Depression by Murray Rothbard. It’s available on Amazon. You read that book and then you’ll understand the headlines you’re reading today and government response. It’s almost like these guys have never read a history book and we're taking the Keynesian prescription. Two economists who were very prominent at that time, one was John Maynard Keynes, another one was Ludwig von Mises; and they were two policy prescriptions. And what happened is our leaders went with the Keynesian response rather than the von Mises response to the Great Depression, and that’s why it lasted as long as it did. But we're going right down the same path. It’s almost like we took out the Great Depression playbook and the response, and we're adopting everyone of those same responses. It’s absolutely amazing to see this thing unfold. [26:41]"
...
FRANK: ... "I might add just to throw in my two cents on the deflation-inflation question. A lot of people have been talking about deflation right now and it is very true when you look at a lot of the outer symptoms that you've had a tremendous credit market deflation. There’s really no argument about that. I think the key element though for most people to understand is that if the government were standing back and government central banks were standing back and not doing anything about this, then, yes, this is a situation that could evolve into a classic deflationary depression, but I think the fact that – and as we've seen over the last several months – Uncle Sam has bellied up to the bar and is opening up his wallet, he’s creating money out of thin air right now and that is a major red flag for investors to understand that this is probably going to be a deflationary scare that we’ll come out of it with a big re-inflationary cycle and a cycle that ultimately will probably morph into a runaway inflation a year, a year and a half down the road. A lot of people won’t make that connection of how did we get here 18 months from now when prices are rising; they’ll be sort of surprised but the action that has been taking place – the bailout, other bailouts that are probably going to come – those are really laying the groundwork for what is likely to be a re-inflationary cycle. That could be devastating for bond investors; and I would counsel bond investors to think long and hard about those positions because I think that’s a market about to enter a severe bear market. I think we’ll see a falling dollar and rising yields. The equities – since they have the ability to raise prices through their balance sheet and maintain profit protection, equities can be a pretty good hedge in the early and middle stages of an inflationary cycle, so the stock market may bottom out in here and may end up a beneficiary of a re-inflationary cycle. So that’s – I just wanted to throw that out there because there’s a very big swirling debate on the whole subject; and not to really antagonize either side, but the way I think, the way I would view it: When you start seeing big government involvement, start thinking about a lower currency and start thinking about reinflation. [55:10]"
Ich für meinen Teil werde, sobald erkennbar wird, dass die Reflationierungsmaßnahmen greifen, meinen aktuellen 25%igen Cashanteil schrittweise in Sachwerte umwandeln.
Da ich bereits in Immobilen, physischem Gold, Silber und PM-Minen in ausreichendem Maße investiert bin und ich aus Diversifikationsgründen nicht alles auf eine Karte setzen möchte, werde ich mich dabei v.a. auf Rohstoff- u. Energieaktien, Palladium- u. Platin-ETFs sowie Agrar-, Wasser- u. Forstaktien konzentrieren.
Gruß
goldlatte
