Beiträge von Schwabenpfeil

Zitat

Original von HORSTWALTER
Da ich weder von F noch von P eine Anzwort auf meine Anfrage bekommen habe, zurteit auch leicht abgelenkt durch andere Sachen, schlage ich vor im Dez. in die nächste Runde zu starten.

Gern orgenisiere ich diese dann, natürlich freue ich mich auf rege Teilnahme, die bringt schließlich allen mehr Spaß und einen größeren gewinn, wenngleich eine geringere Gewinnaussicht

Ich hoffe, eine akzeptable Lösung gefunden zu haben

Hallo HORSTWALTER,

ich hatte fast befürchtet, dass es nicht sooo leicht wird, einen der Münzhändler für unsere gemeinsame Sache zu gewinnen ...

Danke Dir aber, dass Du "dranbleibst". Freue mich dann schon auf das Dezemberspiel !

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

HAUSHALT

Verzweiflungstat Von DONATA RIEDEL

Wie verzweifelt muss ein Bundesfinanzminister sein, der wie Hans Eichel mit Luftbuchungen Milliardenlöcher im Etat schließen will und sich damit auch noch größte politische Kontroversen aufhalst? Eichels und des Kanzlers Absicht, den Tag der Einheit auf einen Sonntag zu legen, bringt Mehreinnahmen allenfalls auf dem Papier. Die Schönrechnerei wird noch dazu mit wirren Argumenten begründet: es gehe ums Gedenken, nicht ums Feiern. Nebenbei macht sich die Regierung zum Anwalt längerer Arbeitszeiten - die sie bislang bekämpft hat.

Unabhängig davon, für wie erhaltenswert man den Feiertag 3. Oktober hält und wie man zu längeren Arbeitszeiten steht: Zur Haushaltssanierung eignet sich die Feiertagsabschaffung nicht. Ebenso hilflos wirkt der hastige Verkauf künftiger Einnahmen der Postpensionskasse: Es werden lediglich heute vermiedene Schulden künftigen Steuerzahlern in Rechnung gestellt.

Wie sein Vorvorgänger Theo Waigel (CSU) steht Eichel einsam an jenem Punkt, an dem weder der eigene Kanzler noch der vom politischen Gegner dominierte Bundesrat zu einer echten Haushaltssanierung bereit sind. Dafür müsste der Minister entweder ein Sparpaket auflegen: Da ist der Kanzler wegen der Konjunktur vor und die Opposition immer dann, wenn es konkret wird. Oder er müsste die Steuern erhöhen. Das schließt der Kanzler aus, weil die Opposition dies ausschlachten würde.

Eichels Lage ist jedoch noch schwieriger als die Waigels. Die Stagnationsphase war jetzt dreimal so lang wie in den 1990ern. Und die Arbeitslosenzahl ist höher. Was für Eichel jedoch noch schwerer wiegt, ist die Perspektive für die Steuereinnahmen. In früheren Konjunkturzyklen gab es einen Automatismus: Nach dem Anspringen der Konjunktur stiegen bald auch die Löhne - und damit die Steuereinnahmen.

Dieser Mechanismus klemmt inzwischen gewaltig: Die Arbeitgeber setzen seit dem Sommer Lohnkürzungen durch, sei es über Arbeitszeitverlängerungen oder über die Kürzung von Weihnachts- und Urlaubsgeld. Die sozialversicherungspflichtige Beschäftigung geht zurück. Der Anstieg bei Minijobs und Kleinstselbstständigen kann dies weder bei den Einnahmen der Sozialkassen noch bei den Steuern auch nur annähernd ausgleichen. Für den Bundeshaushalt bedeutet das: Die Gefahr steigender Zuschüsse für die Rentenkasse bleibt. Die Sozialministerin wird wahrscheinlich Geld für die Krankenkassen verlangen, weil die dafür vorgesehenen Tabaksteuereinnahmen ausgeblieben sind. Und selbst bei einem Anziehen der Binnenkonjunktur steigen die Steuereinnahmen sehr viel langsamer als zu Waigels Zeiten.

Die Veränderungen am Arbeitsmarkt sind zum Teil Ergebnis der Hartz-Reformen, die Kleinstselbstständigkeit fördern. Hintergrund aber ist die Lohnkonkurrenz aus Osteuropa und Asien. Ein zu starres Festhalten an einmal erreichten Standards würde in vielen Branchen nur die Verlagerung von Arbeit ins Ausland beschleunigen. Es würde also weder den Arbeitnehmern noch Eichel wirklich helfen, sich zu energisch gegen diese Entwicklung zu stemmen. Langfristig verhilft sie Deutschland zu besseren Wachstumschancen. Dann werden über den Abbau der Arbeitslosigkeit auch die Steuereinnahmen zulegen.

Die Wahrscheinlichkeit ist also groß, dass sich der Bundesfinanzminister in den nächsten zwei bis drei Jahren mit dem Phänomen des "taxless growth" herumplagen muss. Wer wachstumsdämpfende Steuererhöhungen nicht will, wird sich den Themen Sparen und Subventionsabbau zuwenden müssen. Hinter vorgehaltener Hand geben Finanzpolitiker aller Fraktionen zu, dass ausreichendes Sparen ohne zusätzliche Sozialkürzungen kaum möglich ist: Es geht um ein strukturelles Defizit von jährlich 40 Milliarden Euro. Nicht ganz so unpopulär wie Kürzungen von Renten oder Arbeitslosengeld sind Subventionskürzungen. Die großen, nach dem Gießkannenprinzip gewährten Vergünstigungen Eigenheimzulage, Pendlerpauschale und Nachtzuschläge sollten Regierung und Unions-regierte Bundesländer endlich abschaffen.

Weil Subventionsabbau erst mit Verzögerung greift, würde die nächste Bundesregierung davon stärker profitieren als die heutige. Die Union könnte sich also einen Startvorteil für den Fall eines Bundestagswahlsiegs verschaffen. Stattdessen träumt sie weiter: von unbezahlbaren Steuersenkungen, mit deren Teilaussetzung eine teure Gesundheitsreform bezahlt werden soll. Bleibt es beim derzeitigen Reformtempo in der Finanzpolitik, ist nur eines sicher: Nach 2006 gibt es unabhängig vom Wahlausgang neue verzweifelte Tricks: dann vielleicht mit einer Anleihe auf künftige Steuereinnahmen.

Quelle: Handelsblatt

Staat muss mit 4,8 Milliarden Euro weniger rechnen

Eichels Haushalt leidet weiter


Nach Berechnungen der Steuerschätzer muss der Staat nach Angaben aus Kreisen des Gremiums für 2004 und 2005 mit rund 4,8 Mrd. weniger Steuereinnahmen rechnen als noch im Mai angenommen.

HB BREMEN. Die Einnahmen des Gesamtstaates lägen nach Berechnungen des Gremiums im nächsten Jahr 3,4 Mrd. € und im laufenden Jahr 1,4 Mrd. € unter den bisherigen Prognosen, hieß es am Donnerstag am Rande der Steuerschätzung in Bremen. Die höchsten Ausfälle kämen auf den Bund zu, der 2005 mit 3,5 Mrd. und 2004 mit 2,3 Mrd. € weniger rechnen müsse. Die Einnahmen der Länder für die beiden Jahre lägen rund 1,8 Mrd. € unter den bisherigen Annahmen.

Die Einnahmen für die Gemeinden stiegen im laufenden Jahr um 1,5 Mrd. und im kommenden um 0,8 Mrd. €, hieß es in den Kreisen weiter. Bundesfinanzminister Hans Eichel (SPD) will die Zahlen am frühen Nachmittag in Berlin vorstellen.

HANDELSBLATT, Donnerstag, 04. November 2004, 11:54 Uhr

GOLDEN STAR REPORTS third QUARTER RESULTS

Denver, Colorado, November 3, 2004: Golden Star Resources Ltd. (AMEX: GSS; TSX: GSC) today announced a third quarter net loss of $4.3 million ($(0.03) per share), based on revenues of $13.4 million and gold production of 30,755 ounces from its Bogoso/Prestea Mine in Ghana. Slower production rates and higher costs associated with the mining and processing of transition ore at Bogoso/Prestea exacerbated by high rainfall and a protracted commissioning phase for Wassa combined with recognizing previously capitalized corporate development expenses related to the IAMGold tender offer were the primary reasons for the loss. (All currency in this news release is expressed in U.S. dollars, unless otherwise noted.)

The gold shares rebounded nicely. Those who dumped late yesterday were caught in a head fake. The XAU jumped 2.39 to 101.88, while the HUI leaped 6.79 to 229.79. Both indexes closed on their highs.

The Gold Cartel is capping gold, waiting for the dollar to turn up so they can go after the specs again. The scenario seems too pat to me this time. My sense is the big gold buyers know what the cabal is up to and are waiting for them to turn the specs sellers. In turn they are waiting in the weeds for them to dump – LIKE YESTERDAY - to scoop up cheap gold. If the Russian, Chinese, Indian and Arab buying is as significant as our information leads us to believe, the cabal is going to have a tough time keeping gold down at these levels too much longer.

By day’s end the dollar collapsed to close into new low ground and oil reversed violently to the upside. Only the desperate selling by the secretive Gold Cartel, in one of the most un-American, scurrilous schemes of all time, is preventing the price of gold from soaring. We are coming very close to the day when the bad guys lose it and gold explodes out of NOWHERE. For gold to be at this price level is ludicrous.

Gold, silver and the shares remain THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

The move out of the last handle formation was hard and fast. I don't think it will be be any different this time.
Best regards
Ian

From Australia’s Nick Laird:

World Central Bank gold holdings decline 3.2% since November 2002

http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_503696.html

Bill
This one sounds interesting.

If the Central Backs have a supposed 30,000 tonnes then 3.2% of this is approx 1000 tonnes.
This seems a high amount considering the Central Banks agreement of a 400 tonne limit (now raised to 500 tonne)

Now if the Central Banks only have 15,000 tonnes left then 3.2% of this is approx 480 tonnes which seems more likely...

Cooked books.
Cheers Nick

Mining these days is not easy. As oft-mentioned here, costs and other problems seem to be ruling the day. $400 gold isn’t good enough anymore for the gold shares to do anything. Gold needs to explode through $430 and silver through $8 to create any real excitement. Two items to report on that front.

Café members who own Hecla Mining should know their production in Mexico stopped about two weeks ago because of a union strike at the mill? The strike was called for inhumane treatment of the employees. Instead of talking to the union, Hecla is trying to get the strike declared illegal. It has been more than ten days but still no news. I wonder if they will mention it in their conference call and if they will mention the impact on production and cash flows.

Then, there is my largest holding, GSS, which stunk up the place last quarter due to rain problems affecting production, etc. Now we know why the stock has traded so poorly. Hopefully, the bad news is out of the way and market participants will take this opportunity to jump all over a fine company that had a bumpy spell – one whose share price is selling 40% less than last year with gold at the same price it is today.

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW soared early in response to the Bush/Republican mandate. Then, it gave back some gains to finish at 10,137, up 101. The DOG continued its winning ways, flying another 20 to 2004.

The 30-year bond was bombed early, then rallied back with a vengeance. After making a 111 ¾ low, it reversed to finish at 113 13/32, up 5/32.

Well Bush fans, you got your wish. Even better, the Republican position strengthened in Congress. Maybe the Bush Administration can create jobs this time around, give impetus to a rising stock market, and find a way to solve the Iraq War horror show. As an American, I sure hope so. Unfortunately, the odds of any those positives coming to pass seem slim to none to me.

Neither of the Presidential candidates dealt with the serious issues confronting America today; what needs to be done to correct the imbalances, and the ill thought out policy in Iraq. Worse, this Bush Administration is not liked around the world and is actually hated in a number of quarters. With so many problems on the horizon, it would be very helpful to cultivate friends and to generate some goodwill out there. The powers in Washington today possess little and are losing what little they have.

The only reason for me to go into this is to comment on our gold market. Bottom line:

*The dollar is going to stink up the place this coming year.

*The crooks are going to lose control of their gold rig as the physical demand for gold around the world will bury The Gold Cartel and annihilate their fraudulent scheme.

*At some point after gold takes out $430 convincingly, the gold trading action will divert somewhat from that of the dollar. That’s because The Gold Cartel’s price rigging scheme will have gone down the chute. They have been using the dollar action to manipulate the price. Once that ends, at least for the most part, gold will trade off of a myriad of other factors.

As far as the US stock market and economy is concerned, the good news is behind us. Reality check is staring the market and the economy in the face and investors won’t like what they see in the coming months. The action of this market is likely to get extremely ugly.

The US economic news:

10:00 Oct. ISM Non-Manufacturing reported 59.8 vs. consensus 58
Prior reading 56.7.
* * * * *

10:00 Sept. Factory Orders reported (0.4%) vs. consensus 0.4%
Prior reading revised to (0.3%) from (0.1%).
* * * * *

10:01 Oc.t ISM-Non Manufacturing Prices Paid reported 74.1 vs. Sept. 67.1
New Orders 60.5 vs. Sept. 58.5.
* * * * *

10:31 DOE reports crude oil inventories +6.3M barrels vs. expectations +2.0M barrels
Gasoline inventories reported +500K barrels vs. consensus +1M barrels. Distillate inventories reported (900K) barrels vs. consensus (600K) barrels. December crude is trading lower in initial reaction to the data.
* * * * *

10:31 API reports crude oil inventories +7.8M barrels
Gasoline inventories +2.7M barrels, while distillate inventories rose 501K barrels.
* * * * *

Uh Oh! Oil tanked early on the crude build up, then reversed violently to the upside late in the day, closing at $50.88, up $1.24 per barrel. Technically, today’s outside day key reversal is very bullish, especially in light of the negative fundamental news.

December crude oil
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/C4

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. sales in the U.S. fell in October as the two largest U.S. automakers reduced incentives. Sales rose at DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler and Toyota Motor Corp., helped by new models.
Sales fell 4.7 percent at General Motors, which said it will further cut fourth-quarter North American production, and 5 percent at Ford. Chrysler's increase was 2.3 percent. Toyota posted a 13 percent rise, along with gains of 27 percent at Nissan Motor Co. and 10 percent at Honda Motor Co. –END-

On gold leasing:

Good morning Bill:
According to early Kitco lease rate data, gold is in incipient backwardation and silver is in backwardation in the two month term. The gold CARTEL used leased metal to hit the spot market in both gold and silver. Combine this with a deluge of paper and yesterday's bloodbath in pms is easily explained.

The good news is the paper gold price (I prefer to call the spot market this rather than its real name) is rising this morning as a world response to America choosing financial incompetence and military adventurism over conciliation and good sense in last night's election. Bush is good for gold.

The bad news is the West continues to bleed gold eastward as indicated by the lease data.
Regards, Rhody

Some big picture input from London this morning:

Good morning Bill
I have emailed you before on the issue of some of your readers looking to LeMetropoleCafe as a guide to short-term trading. They won't get that guide because it isn't there.

Everyone has to make their own decisions based on their interpretation of a number of factors, some of which (but not all) are market ones. To blame you for the current sell-off is unfair.

In my view, for what it's worth, gold will move very strongly upwards in the very near future. Anyone who is calling $430 as a top in the gold price and has placed their bets accordingly had better be wearing brown trousers.

I attach a long term $gold chart which clearly shows gold in a huge teacup and handle chart formation. These formations are extremely reliable in defining the next move up.

In fact there was a smaller t & h formation at $325 in 2002.

I attach a chart which shows the two formations. The 2002 handle is shown in orange and the current one in green.

Very briefly, the move that is made is the number from the base of the cup to the top of the handle, added to the top of the handle. So to put some numbers on this.

On the chart gold bottomed at $255. The break from the handle formation is at $315. In round figures $60. Once gold broke out of the handle formation it moved in short order to $375 (on a closing basis) before falling back to the top of the handle.

The current formation looks like this:

Gold bottom $255. Top of handle formation $430. Number from base of cup to top of handle $175. However the break will come from lower than this. Say around $420. Difference $165. Add to the start of the break at $420, and you have a move to around $580.

The John Brimelow Report

India increases buying; open interest slumps.

Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.60, PM $8.48, with world gold at $420 and $421.80. Ample, and lavish, for legal gold imports. The rupee strengthened further to a gold import-facilitating 4 ½ month high, and the stock market rose 1.53%.

According to Reuters:

" Indian shares surged to a six-month closing high on Wednesday, led by gains in technology stocks on hopes that an anticipated win for President George W. Bush would ease fears about outsourcing of software services to India… Indian tech companies have reported robust profit growth in the past few quarters as more multinational corporations shift back-office jobs to India in an effort to cut costs."

Economic prosperity, and a rising rupee pushed up by foreign portfolio inflows, together and separately spell more aggressive gold purchases by the world’s largest importer. This is not a dimension to the gold market that is widely understood.

Tokyo was closed today. One notes with interest that the Shanghai Gold Exchange is showing appreciable (c.90c) premiums over world gold now, with gold at $420.45 on the close today.

Yesterday in NY gold was hit by quite a serious bear raid. In the words of UBS:

"One commission house started to sell a good quantity of December futures contracts on Comex and this pushed gold down to $422.00 / 50… then heavy selling from US names - an investment bank followed by one commission house once gold breached $421/oz - pushed the metal lower still and then stops were triggered and the metal plunged to $417.00 50. At this level very strong physical demand stopped the falling metal dead in its tracks…"

Volume of 83,023 contracts was heavy, and the open interest drop 14,353 lots to 313,532 rather steep, especially considering that a decline of this size must have brought in some momentum short sellers. Possibly the resilience gold shown in NY this morning reflects the reversal of such positions.

Any further firming of the rupee (which seems quite likely, especially if oil continues to weaken) can only sharpen further the bullion appetite of the world’s largest gold consumer. Impelled by the physical market, another approach on the $430s high seems very likely.

JB

A special thanks to John. His reporting on the cash gold markets around the world is invaluable, and aids us in comprehending what is driving the gold price.

November 3 – Gold $424.10 up $4.40 – Silver $7.12 up 13 cents

Gold Cartel Runs Into A Brick Wall Of Physical Buying

When a resolute young fellow steps up to the great bully, the world, and takes him boldly by the beard, he is often surprised to find it comes off in his hand, and that it was only tied on to scare away the timid adventurers...Ralph Waldo Emerson

GO GATA!!!

When I woke up this morning, gold was due $2.50/$3 higher with the dollar stronger across the board. The euro was .20 lower and both the yen and pound were negative. The mini strength in the dollar evaporated as soon as the US markets opened. The dollar was pounded.

One thing is VERY CLEAR. Yesterday’s raid by The Gold Cartel was an insurance policy the dollar would be belted today, regardless of the election outcome. They didn’t want gold anywhere near $430, so they attacked in blatant fashion, not caring how it looked. Why should they care? The dummies in the mainstream gold world and timid gold producer executives won’t say anything anyway. Had gold closed around $428 yesterday, it would have blown through $430 this morning and this could have wreaked havoc should some of the massive number of commercial gold shorts panicked.

Another point of interest is a distinct pattern which is gradually developing. And that is The Gold Cartel’s assaults to break gold down appear to be failing. As mentioned yesterday, Mike Bolser’s proprietary work tells him what The Gold Cartel is up to and what their intentions are. What has changed from years past, at least so far, is they keep getting stuffed by a surging physical market (note John Brimelow below).

From MIDAS commentary on October 4 with gold at $413.50:

"How about Mike Bolser’s call made months ago to look for a savage cabal attack on October 4th! He warned everyone to get out of long positions on Friday because his proprietary work told him what was coming."

Because the cash market was so firm, as articulated by John Brimelow the last month+, their attack in early October failed. They were unable to flush out the specs. Instead, more specs have come in and the open interest has soared further.

Yesterday’s assault shows how panicky The Gold Cartel is and petrified $430 will be taken out in a major way. It is too early to tell how their latest mugging will work out. However, today’s sharp rebound tells us they must be sweating. I am sticking with my MIDAS commentary of October 26 with gold at $426 and down $2.30 that day.

"GATA’s Mike Bolser has his subscribers on full alert about a Gold Cartel ambush. His work tells him the bad guys are going to go all out to take gold down. No doubt in my mind he is right. That is their INTENT. The recent price action tells us so. However, this time I don’t believe they can pull it off. They are not omnipotent and are vulnerable to a bushwhacking. We are due for our Commercial Signal Failure."

To illustrate how obvious The Gold Cartel’s ploy is to keep gold from taking out $430, take a gander at how gold has traded lately compared to the dollar. The dollar has broken down and continues to break down further. Yet gold has been stopped cold in its tracks by the cabal. How do the mainstream world gold dimwits, who refuse to deal with the obvious price manipulation, explain this:

December dollar (84.76, down .81 and a new low close)
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/C4

and the

December euro (up 1.30 to finish the day at 128.17 and right on its yearly highs)
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/EC/C4

vis-à-vis

December gold ($425.40, up $4.60)
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C4

Once again gold made its highs within the first hour, even though the dollar weakened considerably as the day wore on. Continued proof of the cabal’s price manipulation.

The gold floor commented all session long how lousy the gold action was. Is it any wonder when the US Government and bullion banking friends won’t allow it to go up? Locals, noticing the crummy action, were caught short and were forced to cover going into the bell.

The gold open interest fell a whopping 14,354 contracts and that is a real plus. Could have fallen even more today. Nice to get some of the froth out of the market.

Silver filled its breakaway gap at the $7 level on yesterday’s big tank. It may have left another one today. If so, it will be most unusual. It would be a rare event for silver to leave another breakaway gap so quickly. Then again, we know what the price managers have done to silver for so many years. As a result, they have to be vulnerable to all kinds of market surprises.

What will do in the silver price managers is if the Comex warehouse stocks continue to dwindle. They were unchanged this afternoon. From what I know, this is the last bastion of silver stocks of any kind of size in the world.

The Gold Cartel pressured gold this morning when oil sank as a result of a sizeable build in the US crude oil stock. On that break, silver held like a rock. It just refused to go back down.

The silver open interest dropped 2298 contracts to 114,494.

Morgan Stanley is still very short silver. Word is they won’t run for the hills unless silver takes out $8.46. Keep that in mind and in the back of your pocket.

One other short-term positive for both gold and silver is today’s quick comeback (most unusual after dramatic sell-offs) nullifies potential margin call selling pressure. That kind of liquidation is what The Gold Cartel counts on to let them out of their shorts.

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW turned around late with traders spooked that Kerry was leading in Ohio. It fell 18 to 10,036. The DOG kept moving higher, closing at 1985, up 5.

08:51 Redbook chain store sales (0.6%) through 10/30 week vs. September
Represents modest improvement from (0.7%) in w/e 10/23.

10:02 October Challenger data notes layoff announcements of 101.8K vs Sep 107.9K
Note that the Challenger data only measure announcements of future layoffs, not actual layoffs, and therefore tend to have little or no correlation with monthly payrolls.
* * * * *

NEW YORK, Nov 2 (Reuters) - U.S. planned job cuts eased in October but remained above the 100,000 level for the second month in row, a report said on Tuesday.

Employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said employers announced 101,840 layoffs in October, down from 107,863 in September. The October figure marked the first time since January/February of 2003 that more than 100,000 cuts were announced back to back.

The October cuts were 40.7 percent lower than the 171,874 cuts announced in October, 2003.

The October figure brings job cuts in the first 10 months of 2004 to 826,160, which is 21 percent fewer than the same 10-month total in 2003 of 1,043,954.

If employers announce more than 86,920 job cuts in each of the last two months of 2004, it will be the fourth consecutive year in which job cuts exceeded 1,000,000, the consulting firm said. Prior to 2001, the highest annual job-cut total was 677,795 in 1998.

"The job market appears to be stuck in the mud," said John Challenger, chief executive officer of the firm. "Every time it looks as if things are going to rebound for the nation's workers a series of reports deflates the optimism."

-END-

The John Brimelow Report

At least the Indians are happy

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.77, PM $7.61, with world gold at $425.90 and $425.15. High; comfortably above legal import duty.

Precious metals were soft in Japan, where sentiment towards them is apparently being influenced by oil price movements. The equivalent of 26,005 Comex lots traded (+58%), the active contract fell 11 yen and world gold was $1.75 below the NY close at the end. Open interest did rise the equivalent of 858 Comex lots, but according to Mitsubishi the "general public" added less than 200 Comex contracts to their long. (Platinum open interest actually fell.) (NY yesterday traded 48,140 contracts; open interest jumped by 4,232 contracts to a new record of 327,886.)

Interestingly, the discounts to world gold shown at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which were around $3 yesterday with world gold at $428.85, narrowed sharply today to around $1, with world gold at $424.24. Recently $425 seems to be an extremely sensitive level in Shanghai. Reuters reports kilo bars have slipped to a 20c discount in Hong Kong from flat last week. From the vantage point of physical price differentials, the only clear influence of China on world gold is negative, on the highs.

If Standard London’s web site is meaningful, however, bullion premiums in the Gulf are robust.

The ECB reported another c. 1.6 tonne sale by a subordinate Central Bank. This seems to be a regular weekly event now.

Yesterday, of course, gold followed a strong Asian day with another serious attempt on $430 in NY. Standard London says:

"The metal reached a brief high of 430.30/430.80 where dealer selling capped the price rise."

Some are alarmed by the consequent technical pattern. HSBC:

"Not only is this potentially a "double-top" so beloved by the chartists, but this was also the high seen in January and in the immediate aftermath of the Madrid bombings in March."

This is sensibly assessed by gold’s new friend, Dennis Gartman:

"what more need we say other than to note yet again that the $428-431 level, which proved so formidable late last year and earlier this has proven formidable yet again. Materially weak energy prices, coupled with a dollar that is at least holding its own, are sufficient to draw sellers into the gold market... if not from longs willing to reduce their positions, then from new shorts willing to sell ahead of whoever it is that has put a lid on prices at these current levels of resistance."

Given the substantial (13 tonne) increase in open interest on a down $1.20 day, Gartman might be right about shorting yesterday.

While in the emotionally-overwrought conditions around election time could produce well produce volatility, any effort to drive gold down significantly is going to need substantial bullion deliveries to grateful Indians (and also, quite possibly, aggrieved Arabs).

JB

Later on from John:

35,000 contracts traded between 11-12! Gold only fell from $423 to $419. Bears need to do better than this…

JB

Here we are !

November 2 – Gold $419.70 down $7.20 – Silver $6.99 down 31 cents

Gold Cartel Proves Mike Bolser And GATA Right/Cabal Takes Out Insurance Policy

Cautious, careful people, always casting about to preserve their reputation and social standing, never can bring about a reform. Those who are really in earnest must be willing to be anything or nothing in the world's estimation, and publicly and privately, in season and out, avow their sympathy with despised and persecuted ideas and their advocates, and bear the consequences...Susan B Anthony

GO GATA!!!

"Fast funds" were early buyers, while some of the longer-term moving funds were sellers. Yesterday’s predictable failure to take out $430 ushered in predictable selling today. Early euro weakness didn’t help either. Although, there was little movement in the dollar as the pound and yen remained on plus side all day.

Meanwhile, behind the scenes in the over the counter market, The Gold Cartel lay in waiting to launch a major assault on the price, one predicted by GATA’s Mike Bolser. With gold making 16-year monthly highs Mike put out the following on Friday:

DIVG Update: Ambush Warning on HIGH

Dear Readers:
Today's data fit exactly where they have been aiming for weeks and without a scintilla of deviation. The long-awaited ambush is virtually upon us and the degree to which the Fed has attempted to disguise things (By holding the MCDI low, now for exactly five data points at an extreme) tells me that this one will be severe….

The time for patience and preparedness is NOW. The fact that my indicators culminate at an election is ominous as they can ONLY be steered by the highest levels of government. One can speculate as to the reason but this is a drain of energy.

Better to sit back and calmly wait for the inevitable action to begin and then enter the fray at the safest moment.

I may regret this confidence in simple numbers but this acid test will stand
or it will fall very soon.
Mike

Later that day:

This time around we see an extraordinary Fed effort to disguise intentions even going so far as to let an options expiry pass (Tuesday) with not much action. This move, coupled with other markers, suggests the Fed ambush will be highly coordinated and fierce. Readers should expect anything….. ***

Yesterday from Mike:

Gold tracks unchanged at $427 or thereabouts as we wait patiently for the final Fed move into the open with their ambush. For some time the metrics have pointed to the election….

***

For the short-term Mike has proved me wrong and GATA/himself right. I didn’t think The Cartel could pull this off for the zillionth time and would be so blatant at this sensitive point in time. Mike’s proprietary work said The Gold Cartel would attack and exhibit no shame in doing so. Hat’s off to him.

If you are as disgusted as I am at this fraud, call up your gold company CEO’s and raise a stink. Demand to know what they are doing to end this nightmare. What is the point in investing in these firms if they are going to be vandalized by a corrupt bunch of bankers in New York in cahoots with an Orwellian political establishment? At least demand they read Sprott Asset Management’s publication, "Not Free, Not Fair: The Long-Term Manipulation of the Gold Price" and ask for commentary. Shame on you if you take this latest egregious insult without doing what you can to do something about it.

Maybe today’s gold rout will wake up the brain dead out there in the gold world who, incredibly enough, won’t accept the fact the gold market is rigged, and has been for many, many years. Yesterday’s gold open interest rose 4232 contracts to a new high of 327,886. This is more than 20,000 contracts higher than the previous high when gold ran up to $430 earlier this year and leaves the market vulnerable to a short-term bloodbath. Only a SURGING cash market can save the day and keep more funds from bailing out.

ONCE AGAIN, we see how the crooks cap, cap, cap gold and then wait for their chance to turn the specs into sellers. Contrary to what most of the pundits believe, The Gold Cartel uses the dollar to manipulate the gold price. It is the reverse of the common thinking the gold rally is due to dollar weakness. The cabal uses the dollar weakness to lure in specs, using $430 as a ceiling, and then attacks when they believe the time is right. This is blatant fraud because it is orchestrated and violates the US anti-trust laws. No legal expert am I, but it probably violates the racketeering laws also. What other explanation can there be for today’s bombing? The dollar closed at 85.57, up only .23 near its multi-year low. The euro only fell .16 to 127.27. Dollar strength? The pound rose .72 to 183.47 and the yen gained .24 to 106.11. The gold strength/dollar weakness correlation completely fell apart today and bolsters GATA’s claims the market is officially managed.

As further evidence of the gold price manipulation on the Comex, gold was pounded AFTER the London PM Fix, for the umpteenth time. The AM Fix was $425.10 and the PM Fix came in at $424.20. If gold were a randomly traded free market, gold would rally as many times after the PM Fix as it does fall. This is not the case by an impossibly wide statistical margin. The number of times gold has been clobbered following the Fix compared to rallying sharply, is probably 20 to 1, or more.

With the dollar doing little, this was The Gold Cartel’s move to take gold out of the danger area. When gold broke below $422, the funds began to bail in earnest. JP Morgan Chase and Republic Bank actually showed up on the buy side to slow the decline for a brief period of time.

Why did The Gold Cartel attack so ferociously today? My guess is they are petrified of a stalemate election and some ensuing chaos and decided to take out an insurance policy in case the worst case scenario ensues. I understand Republican hack Tucker Carlson was on TV predicting riots if the election isn’t decided tonight. This sort of thinking must have petrified The Gold Cartel with gold so close to $430 and their derivatives positions so exposed to a neutron bomb-like catastrophe in the event of a dramatic price rise above that level. Thus, they must have decided to take no chances and move gold out of the danger area, in the event the dollar is battered tomorrow and breaks down. With the technicals turning bearish, many funds will mechanically sell bullion tomorrow even if the dollar is clobbered. Therefore, a very weak dollar might only effect a small gold rally and make a move above $430 very unlikely. After all, we have a $6 Rule in the US.

What will the outcome of the US Presidential election mean for gold? You got me. Both candidates are Yale Skull & Bonesers and backed by the same big money on Wall Street. Both Clinton and Bush have favored the rigging of the gold price. Can’t see any difference in either Kerry or Bush as far as bullion is concerned. Why do I think times are changing regardless of who wins? It won’t be up to them in the years to come. It is up to the world market and to what extent foreigners gobble up gold at these cheap prices. If it is as I think it is, the bad guys in Washington/New York will soon be overpowered as the cabal’s available gold supply dwindles to the point of no return. As you have heard from me for many years, the gold price will only explode when the corrupt Gold Cartel is blown up, thoroughly defeated.

For reference to this line of thinking, we only need to turn to the new Washington Agreement. All year long we heard it emphasized the signatories would renew the agreement with a 500 tonne per year sales limit. It was the 500 tonnes which was constantly bandied about all year long. The renewal date was September 26, 2004.

So what happened? Prior to the renewal date UBS came out with a report they didn’t believe Europeans could come up with 500 tonnes per year to sell. Since then we haven’t heard a peep out of those in the gold establishment world about the amount of selling. The Washington Agreement was signed without the slightest of fanfare. This is anecdotal proof to me The Gold Cartel is in serious trouble over supply and won’t be able to stave off defeat in the coming months.

Silver was slaughtered as a number of specs ran for the hills. The silver open interest fell 526 contracts to 116,721. A bit of good news after the close. The silver warehouse stocks fell a sizeable 865,060 ounces to 103,759,089. If they break the psychologically important 100 million mark, look out.

A friend queried how silver could break with the stocks disappearing like this? My response: this market is an illusion. One day, when the crooks are beaten, the silver market dynamics will change overnight and the price will go berserk - and not until then.

Zitat

Original von silversurfer

Leider musst Du immer zu Lemetropolecafe auf die Webseite gehen um dann den Bericht in der James Joyce Table zu öfffnen.
Ich denke ab morgen darfst Du das übernehmen.
Das ist ja ein perfektes Timing!!

Hallo silversurfer,

danke für die präzisen Instruktionen Unsere Zusammenarbeit klappt wirklich gut

Ausser diesem GATA Bericht für die nächste Zeit habe ich also hier keine Pflichten ?

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Zitat

Original von extrel
Also ich wurde von meiner Bank nicht informiert. Was geht da vor?

Hallo extrel,

da gibt es theoretisch 2 Möglichkeiten:

a) Deine Bank hat die Aktionärsabfrage nicht beantwortet und Dich von daher nicht informiert (halte ich eher für unwahrscheinlich).

b) Deine Bank hat die Aktionärsabfrage beantwortet und hält es (im Gegensatz zur Konkurrenz) nicht für nötig, Ihre Kunden darüber zu informieren.

Frag Sie doch einfach mal

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Zitat

Original von Jürgen

Es wurden die Aktionärsdaten bei Perilya abgefragt. (

Hallo Jürgen,

das kann ich bestätigen. Auch ich wurde als Perilya Aktionär von meiner Bank entsprechend informiert.

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Vielleicht ist die aktuelle Analyse von Smartinvestor weekly ja von allgemeinem Interesse.

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Dollar und Gold

Die labile bzw. unsichere Situation im Zuge der Präsidentschaftswahl könnte vielen Beobachtern zufolge zu einer weiteren Schwäche des Dollars und respektive zu einer weiteren Stärke des Goldes führen. Wie bereits in den letzten Wochen angedeutet, haben wir hier eine anderen Meinung. Der Pessimismus für den Dollar (z.B. gegen Euro) bzw. der Optimismus für das Gold macht uns skeptisch, daß die Erwartungen der Mehrheit so eintreffen werden. Am Beispiel des Goldes wollen wir dies verdeutlichen (sh. Chart). Es ist zu erkennen, das sich der Goldpreis seit dem Tief vom Mai in einer Art Keil nach oben arbeitet. Unserer Ansicht nach ist hier die Gefahr groß, daß der Goldpreis an der Marke von 430 US-$ hängenbleiben wird und - sobald die untere rote Linie durchbrochen ist - in sich zusammenfällt (im krassesten Fall bis auf 370 US-$). Wenn Gold in den vergangenen Wochen deshalb gestiegen ist, weil der Wahlausgang so unsicher ist, und Gold nun einmal von Unsicherheit profitiert, was wäre dann zu erwarten, wenn die Wahl kurz und schmerzlos, sagen wir mit einem Sieger namens Bush, über die Bühne geht? Nun konsequenterweise müßte Gold deutlich nachgeben und respektive der Dollar zulegen. Genau dieses Szenario vermuten wir während der kommenden Wochen und im Zuge dessen eben mit anziehenden Aktienkursen. Wohlgemerkt: Schwache Gold- bzw. Rohstoffpreise erwarten wir zwar auf kurzfristige Sicht (bis zu vier bis acht Wochen), darüber hinaus, also mittel- und langfristig, sind wir aber weiterhin sehr bullish für Rohstoffe.

Zitat

Original von Ulfur

Bilder lassen sich mit dem IMG Befehl ins Posting setzen.

Hallo Ulfur,

Hmm. Könntest Du das für die Uneingeweihten noch etwas ausführlicher erläutern ??? Danke im voraus !

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

[quote]Original von silversurfer

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/
Ist die webpage bei der man sich für ein 2 Wöchiges Testabo für die GATA-Berichte rebistrieren lassen kann.
Es ist völlig unverbindlich.

quote]

@ silversurfer: Habe meine Registrierung für das 2 wöchige Testabo nun abgeschlossen. Kommen die Berichte nun per Email ? Ab wann soll ich das posten übernehmen bzw. wann läuft Dein Testabo nun aus ???

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Zitat

Original von Silverdiscount.de
** Versandkostenfrei ab 400 Euro Umsatz

@ Hallo Herr Ewers,

hatte ich es also doch richtig in Erinnerung

Kleine Anregung: Bitte machen Sie dies doch auch in Ihren Versandbedingungen eindeutig klar. Ist ja schließlich ein starkes Argument für Sie

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Zitat

Original von silversurfer
[
PS.:
Kann mir jemand erklären wie man biler in die Postings reinbekommt?

Sieh mal unter FAQ Was sind Dateianhänge nach. Sollte Dir weiterhelfen.

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Zitat

Original von Twinson
aber wo ist denn Goldbugs, habe schon lange nichts mehr von Ihm gelesen...

Hallo Twinson,

auch Goldbugs hat (leider) diesem Forum den Rücken gekehrt

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil