[Blockierte Grafik: http://cbs.marketwatch.com/ima…g/MKTW/large_blk_logo.gif]
Gold atop $400 for 1st time since April
Analysts see chance for $500, but mining shares lag gains
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures climbed above $400 an ounce Thursday to close at their highest level in more than two months as weakness in the U.S. dollar and uncertainty overseas spurred investment demand for the metals.
U.S. stock futures nudge slightly higher
Europe edges lower after Ifo, techs end two-day climb
Titan: Lockheed won't extend deadline
CSFB's Mack stepping down in management shakeup
Veteran fund managers see overvalued stocks, bonds
"The environment for gold hasn't been this good in 20 years," said Peter Grandich, editor of newsletter The Grandich Letter, pointing out that turmoil in the Middle East has affected daily trading and has given the market "a strong underpinning."
Moreover, "the fact that inflation is now back on the radar of even the 'Don't Worry, Be Happy' crowd on Wall Street, has laid the foundation for my $500 target on gold to be hit," he said. 
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for August delivery traded as high as $404 an ounce before closing at $403.50, up $8. The contract hasn't closed at a level this high since April 13. See the latest futures prices.
Weakness in the dollar also helped spur investment demand for gold Thursday.
The greenback was sharply weaker against the yen after the Japanese government released data showing that Japan's latest tertiary index came in stronger than expected. The index measures activity in wholesale and retail sales, transport and financial services. See Currencies.
An unexpected decline in U.S. durable goods orders and a rise in initial jobless claims also put pressure on the dollar, prompting investors to seek out a safer bet in the metals market. See Economic Reports.
Other metals futures headed higher on Nymex as well, with silver leading the gains.
The July silver contract closed at $6.175 per ounce, up 30 cents, or 5.1 percent. July copper added another 2.85 cents to close at $1.2235 per pound.
September palladium closed up $6.40 at $229.90 an ounce, while July platinum climbed $3.60 to end at $813 an ounce.
Copper supplies were down 2,084 short tons at 103,256 short tons as of late Wednesday, according to Nymex. Silver stocks were down 9,984 troy ounces at 117.7 million troy ounces. Gold inventories stood at 4.21 million troy ounces, down 182,818 troy ounces from the previous day.
$500 gold?
Where gold may be headed next is anyone's guess, but more analysts are favoring the potential for higher prices -- even as high as $500 an ounce.
"$500 is now a realistic target in the fairly near term," said Kevin Kerr, a senior trader at Kwest International. "With all the uncertainty over interest rates and the greenback, gold is setting up nicely to take out these key resistance levels," he said. Read more of his latest comments.
All in all, the biggest reasons that gold's likely to climb are "large federal deficits, expanding monetary supply, increased global demand, and the fact that both India and China are expanding into a capitalistic entrepreneurial mode," said John Person, head analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services.
He said prices will trade at around $475 at the year's end. See more of comments.
The risk for higher gold prices is significantly greater than that for the downside, said Frank Holmes, chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors, in an interview.
"I still think there's a $25 risk on the downside, and there's $75 on the upside -- so you have a 3 to 1 risk ratio," he said.
The dollar will continue to be the biggest driver for gold prices, he said. "What makes a weak dollar is deficit spending over 5 percent of GDP -- we're pushing 10 percent, and real interest rates -- the CPI minus the fed funds rate is still negative and even if rates rise, they will still be negative," he explained.
Mehr
Eventuell Selbstabhohlung bei Artikeln um die1000 Euro...
