die Befürchtungen über das Nichtmehrvorhandensein der Deutschen Goldvorräte wurde hier schon diskutiert.
Ein kleiner Hinweis am Rande: die Umstände der Goldverkäufe der Notenbank Norwegens Anfang diesen Jahres lassen es realistisch erscheinen, dass die "Verkäufe" wirklich nur Ausbuchungen von Verliehenem Centralbank-Gold gewesen sind
ansonsten kann ich Dir nur zustimmen
European Central Banks Strike Gold Deal
March 8 — BASEL, Switzerland (Reuters) - Europe's central banks said Monday they had reached a new deal that raises the limits on their annual gold sales in a further blow to bullion's role as a global monetary tool.
They capped sales at 500 metric tons a year for the next five years -- a total that was broadly in line with expectations and slightly higher than the expiring pact's 400-tonlimit.
The overall limit for the five-year accord is 2,500 tons, up from 2,000 under the 1999 agreement.
"It's not a surprise at all. The market had expected (between) 2,400 and 2,500 tons," Wolfgang Wrzensniok, sales director at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, said.
Stephen Briggs, analyst with Societe General, said: "My guess is that there will not be a huge impact on the price."
Initial market reaction was muted, with gold easing and then steadying around $399.50 an ounce, off a 15-year high of $430.50 touched in January.
The new accord will start in September 2004, replacing the original 1999 agreement that expires on that date, the central banks said.
Before the new deal was struck, the Bundesbank, the world's second largest holder of central bank gold, said it had requested an option to sell 600 tons.
The UK said it would not take part in the new program because Britain did not intend to sell any gold during the period covered by the deal.
The Swiss National Bank said it had no plans to sell beyond 130 tons already planned.
The agreement was announced on the sidelines of the Group of 10 meeting of central bankers from top industrialized nations and emerging markets.
The 1999 agreement, struck when gold was sinking sharply as the precious metal lost allure during the internet and new economy era, helped stabilize the price of gold
"Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves," the joint statement by 14 central banks and the European Central Bank said.
Central banks have been shedding gold, once a mainstay of their reserve assets, in favor of hard currencies as gold's status as a store of value has declined.
Quelle: http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/reuters20040308_67.html
PRAYER TIMES
BUSINESS
Monday, 8, March, 2004 (17, Muharram, 1425)
Making a Modest Case for Investing in Gold
Henry T. Azzam, Special to Arab News
AMMAN, 8 March 2004 Investing in gold is perceived as an efficient diversification of portfolios. Gold has traditionally had about zero correlation with equities and virtually no correlation with bonds. An inflationary environment very positive for gold is likely to be negative for bonds and stocks. However, during an economic rebound, both gold and stock prices may rise, with gold likely to lead rather than lag the equity rebound. Because gold prices are denominated in dollars, those investors who are concerned about a further decline in the dollar exchange rate might be interested to add gold to their portfolios. As a matter of fact, golds recent surge is noteworthy only in dollar terms. In euros, gold price is still lower than at the beginning of 2003. This highlights the strongest case for gold, that it is a useful diversification element in ones portfolio.
Gold and commodity prices tend to be a good hedge for inflation. During the high inflation period 1973-81, the Goldman Sacks Commodity Index (GSCI), which includes gold, achieved a real average annual compound return of 3.3 percent compared to -3.8 percent for the US stock market index (S&P 500). However gold and other commodities had a real average annual growth rate of 5.6 percent over the low inflation period 1982-2002, compared to 9.6 percent for the S&P500. While gold provided a valuable diversification element during individual years (e.g. 1987, 1990, 2000), extended periods of falling inflation and declining interest rates during the 1990s were significantly more beneficial to equities and bonds than gold and commodities.
Gold has bounced from the lows of $257 an ounce in early 2001 to a high of $425 in late 2003, before dropping to the $400 level recently. But even at $400 an ounce it is still 53 percent lower than its all time high of $850 attained by the end of the 1970s. The price of gold has fluctuated significantly in the past ten years but the general trend was down until mid 2003. In 1991, gold prices per ounce averaged $362.1, fell to $343.8 in 1992 and then climbed back up in the next four years to reach $387.8 in 1996. On Nov. 26, 1997, the spot gold price closed below $300 (at $296) for the first time since March, 1985. Gold ended 1997 at $289, however it averaged $331 for the year. The annual average price of gold retreated further to $ 279.1 and $ 273.2 in 2000 and 2001 respectively, before rising to an average of $309 in 2002 and $363 in 2003.
Central banks worldwide have long held part of their reserves in the form of gold. At the end of 2003, gold reserves at central banks and monetary authorities around the world stood at around 950 million ounces, which is well below the level that prevailed in the 1970s. Gold reserves held by eleven Arab countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, UAE and Yemen) amounted to 22.5 million ounces in 1991, remained steady at that level until 1994, and then declined gradually to reach 20 million ounces in 2003, a drop of 11 percent on their level in 1991. This was mainly due to a significant decline in the gold holdings of three countries; Jordan, Yemen and Qatar, while gold reserves of the other Arab countries remained unchanged throughout this period.
Lebanon is by far the largest holder of gold reserves in the region, with 9.22 million ounces (286 ton) at the end of 2003, followed by Saudi Arabia with 4.6 million ounces, Kuwait 2.54 million ounces and Egypt 2.43 million ounces. At 62.2 ounces per head, Lebanon has the highest level of gold to population in the world. The rise in gold prices recorded last year had led to a substantial increase in the value of gold held as reserves by central banks around the world. For the Arab countries, the value of gold reserves held by central banks and monetary authorities rose from $5.8 billion by end 2001 to $8.7 billion by the end of 2003, a gain of 50 percent or $2.9 billion. Lebanon, with 37 percent of Arab worlds total gold reserves, recorded a gain of around $1.1 billion last year.
Holding reserves in the form of gold carries a substantial opportunity cost. Traditionally, gold earned no return unlike financial securities such as bonds or bank deposits. This has changed in recent years with the development of the gold leasing market. This market allows central banks to earn up to 1 percent a year (depending on maturity) on the gold holdings they are willing to lend to the market place, which is still lower than the return on other assets. Around 118 countries including several in the Middle East did lend more than 35 percent of their gold reserves in 2002.
It is not yet clear which is a bigger threat to the world economy today inflation or deflation. Deflationary pressures are still visible in Japan and to a lesser extent in Europe. In the US, the Federal Reserve would like to see inflation higher than current levels to allow a cushion against falling prices before changing its accommodative monetary position. Those who are currently buying gold and commodities as a hedge for inflation are betting that the huge budget and current account deficits of the US are unsustainable and would sooner or later lead to higher inflation. Central banks around the world have been buying the US currency and building dollar reserves in the process to limit the upward move of their currencies. But there is a limit to how much foreigners are willing to buy US Treasury bills and bonds. Adding to inflationary pressures are higher oil prices, while the excess liquidity conditions and low cost of credit are fuelling higher real estate and share prices.
All this suggests that inflationary pressures in the US may become more visible later in the year, but no one is expecting a surge in inflation, with the consumer price index in the US rising to 1.5 percent by yearend compared to the 2003 level of 1 percent. Until the threat from inflation becomes clearer, investors are unlikely to devote too much of their portfolios to gold. And if interest rates in the US start rising later in the year, the forward price of gold will become higher than the spot price, making forward selling by mining companies and hedge funds more attractive and this will put downward pressure on gold prices. Equally important, higher US growth rates and dollar interest rates would limit any further decline in the exchange rate of the American currency, reducing the need to buy gold as a hedge against weaker dollar. Central banks around the world may also want to realize some of the profits they made last year on their gold holdings by selling part of the gold reserves they have.
To conclude, until the short-term threat from inflation becomes clearer, investors may not want to devote too much of their portfolios to gold. Under current conditions, gold and other commodities should make up an inflation hedge of not more than 5 percent of investors portfolios.
(Henry T. Azzam is chief executive officer at Jordinvest.)
Reuters: China no panacea for gold demand -Barclays analyst
Sunday March 7, 10:38 pm ET
TORONTO, March 7 (Reuters) - China's demand for gold will not to leap in line with its voracious appetite for every other commodity or raw material as it continues on a major industrialisation drive, an analyst said on Sunday.
Kamal Naqvi, precious metals analyst at Barclays Capital in London, said the so-called Chinese "armpit theory" -- that China has a big population and if each bought a small amount of gold following the deregulation of the market, there would be a massive increase in demand -- was "deeply flawed".
Speaking at the annual Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada convention in Toronto, Naqvi said China was already a major buyer of gold and the percentage of income spent on gold jewellery per individual was high like it was in other developing countries, such as India.
By comparison per capita spending on gold jewellery in developed countries, such as the United States, Germany and Japan, was much lower than in developing nations.
"The pressure is very much for the individual Chinese consumer to spend less money on gold than we have seen in the past," Naqvi said.
According to leading mine research group, GFMS, China bought more than 200 tonnes of gold in both 2003 and 2002.
"If China matched the U.S. in terms of per capita consumption, this consumption would fall by almost three-quarters from 200 tonnes to 44 tonnes," Naqvi said, although he added that this was not his forecast of what would occur in China.
He said the World Gold Council, an industry-funded body tasked with stimulating global gold demand, should rather focus its marketing efforts on Western nations, where rejuvenation of gold demand was more crucial.
Kommentar: Irgendwie scheint Barclays nichts vom Gold zu halten. Weis jemand zufällig ob die Shortpositionen halten?
ECB PRESS RELEASE
Joint Statement on Gold
8 March 2004
European Central Bank
Banca d'Italia
Banco de España
Banco de Portugal
Bank of Greece
Banque Centrale du Luxembourg
Banque de France
Banque Nationale de Belgique
Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland
De Nederlandsche Bank
Deutsche Bundesbank
Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Suomen Pankki
Schweizerische Nationalbank
Sveriges Riksbank
In the interest of clarifying their intentions with respect to their gold holdings, the undersigned institutions make the following statement:
Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves.
The gold sales already decided and to be decided by the undersigned institutions will be achieved through a concerted programme of sales over a period of five years, starting on 27 September 2004, just after the end of the previous agreement. Annual sales will not exceed 500 tons and total sales over this period will not exceed 2,500 tons.
Over this period, the signatories to this agreement have agreed that the total amount of their gold leasings and the total amount of their use of gold futures and options will not exceed the amounts prevailing at the date of the signature of the previous agreement.
This agreement will be reviewed after five years.
Gold Price May Fall to $350, Barclays Analyst Naqvi Says
March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices may fall to $350 an ounce or less as fewer companies buy the metal to fulfill forward contracts and concerns about war in Iraq ease, a metals analyst told a Toronto mining conference.
``The peak has almost certainly passed,'' Kamal Naqvi of Barclays Capital in London said at the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada conference, the largest meeting of its kind in the world. ``The gold industry is a little complacent about prices at the current levels.''
Gold for immediate delivery rose 20 percent on the London Metal Exchange last year, peaking at $426.38 an ounce Jan. 9. The price has fallen 5.9 percent since then, closing at $401.25 Friday.
Declining gold prices may be troubling for companies such as Newmont Mining Co., the world's biggest gold producer, and Barrick Gold Corp., the third-biggest gold producer, which expect costs to rise as their mines age and they process lower-grade ore.
Toronto-based Barrick's production costs rose 8.6 percent last year to $199 an ounce and the company said it expects that figure to be as much as $215 this year. Denver-based Newmont said it expects strengthening of the Australian and Canadian dollars to boost its overall cost of sales this year to between $220 and $230 an ounce, from $203 in 2003.
Iraq War
Most of the factors that propelled gold prices higher have abated, including concerns about the U.S.-led war on Iraq, slumping equity markets and ``de-hedging'' or the elimination of forward contracts by companies such as Newmont, Naqvi said.
``If the euro stabilizes, or begins to fall,'' Naqvi said, ``gold holdings will be liquidated.''
He didn't convince gold proponents.
Grayme Anthony, president of Houston Lake Mining Inc., which is developing a gold mine in northwestern Ontario, said he expects the U.S. dollar to decline further, keeping the price of gold in the $400 an ounce range. Demand for gold tends to rise as the U.S. currency falls because the metal is priced in U.S. dollars and becomes cheaper for investors in other countries.
Forecasters at the conference were more optimistic about other metals.
Nickel may rise to as high as $7 a pound this year, a 60 percent increase from last year's average price of $4.37, because economic expansion in China is fueling demand for the metal, which is used to make stainless steel, Patricia Mohr, an analyst at Scotiabank Group, told the conference.
Copper will probably rise 57 percent to $1.27 a pound. China is now the biggest consumer of copper in the world, Mohr said.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Joe Schneider in Toronto
at jschneider@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor of this story:
Erik Schatzker at eschatzker@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: March 7, 2004 16:44 EST
(2004-02-19) Bank of India moots changes to gold import rules
The reserve Bank of India has today confirmed it may impose mandatory rules governing gold imports.
The bank says it is considering making it a requirement that payments meant for gold are channelled through branches in a bid to better regulate the quality of imports.
Under the proposals banks would have to employ risk management procedures to ensure that they can legislate for the risk involved in the proprietary purchase of gold on its own.
Sources told the Business Standard that the guidelines would cover the purview of gold imported under various heads such as buyer's credit, consignment or outright purchase.
A “know your customer” rule is also being touted, with banks needing to check the credentials of importers.
Analysts say that changes to the rules could make it easier to keep a track of the levels of gold being imported and also to facilitate improved indirect supervision.
Kommentar: es gibt offensichtlich Länder, denen noch was am Gold liegt
(2004-02-20) Norilsk Nickel plans to unite gold mining interests
MMC Norilsk Nickel is reportedly planning to unite all its gold mining companies into one venture based on Polus Company.
The new merger will be headed by Evgeniy Ivanov, ex-president of Rosbank, Grani.Ru claims.
There is as yet no fixed scheme for the Norilsk Nickel gold business restructuring. Either all the gold assets of Norilsk Nickel will be converted to a unified share, or a holing company will be formed.
The process is expected to take at least six months and the new company has not yet been named, though it is likely to maintain its Polus trademark.
The new venture will be worth an estimated $1 billion and analysts believe the cost of MMC Norilsk Nickel gold assets will rise together with gold prices and gold mining volumes.
In January Norilsk Nickel was granted permission to float stocks outside Russia.
Kommentar: Norilsk Nickel ist nicht der erste, der seine Goldminen ausgliedert, könnte aber auf Grund der Grösse ganz interessant werden
(2004-02-20) Arab gold exchange expected
A gold exchange could soon be opened in Dubai, following the announcement of the first Arab diamond exchange, as part of the UAE's free zone for gold, metals and commodities.
Set to open by April this year, the new diamond exchange is being opened in a bid to maintain international standards within Dubai's diamond trade, according to Neftegaz News.
According to the Dubai Metals and Commodities Centre (DMCC), the exchange will be followed by other exchanges for gold, as well as aluminium, sugar and tea.
The DMCC aims to attract half of the global gold trade and was set up in April 2002, providing a 100 per cent foreign ownership and tax exemption for 50 years.
Under gold dealing, gold options allow holders the right to buy or sell a specific quantity of gold at a previously arranged price by a set date, but without the holder obliged to do so.
Prices are dependant on a number of issues, such as the current spot price of gold, interest rates, the level of the pre-arranged price, the amount of time left until the agreed date and the predicted volatility of the gold price.
There are a number of other exchanges dealing in gold, the biggest of these being the New York Mercantile Exchange Comex Division and the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
Kommentar: Die islamischen Länder drängen anscheinend verstärkt in den goldmarkt vor. Ein Vorteil einer "Goldbörse" in Dubai ist m.E., dass diese nicht der us-amerikanischen Willkür unterliegt
Eurosystem: Neues 5-jähriges Goldabkommen ... (zwei)
Das neue Abkommen wurde von den nationalen Notenbanken des Eurosystems, der Schweizerischen Nationalbank, der schwedischen Riksbank sowie der EZB unterzeichnet. Die Übereinkunft soll nach fünf Jahren überprüft werden. Die Bank of England hingegen nimmt an dem Abkommen nicht teil, es seien aber derzeit auch keine weiteren Goldverkäufe geplant, hieß es aus London.
Für den Zeitraum des Abkommens haben sich die beteiligten Institutionen zudem verpflichtet, das Volumen ihrer Gold-Leasings sowie den Gebrauch von Gold-Futures und -Optionen auf jenen Betrag zu begrenzen, der zum Beginn der vorherigen Vereinbarung ausgewiesen worden war. Gemäß dem im September auslaufenden alten Goldabkommen waren die Verkäufe im Zeitraum von ebenfalls fünf Jahren auf 2.000 t begrenzt worden, das jährliche Volumen sollte 400 t nicht überschreiten.
Die Steigerung des Verkaufsvolumens nach der neuen Übereinkunft wird unter Beobachtern als unproblematisch bewertet, nicht zuletzt aufgrund des aktuell hohen Preisniveaus für das Edelmetall. Hinzu kommt, dass die Vereinbarung lediglich Höchstgrenzen für den jährlichen Goldverkauf bestimmt, die aber jederzeit unterschritten werden dürfen, womit auf aktuelle Marktentwicklungen reagiert werden kann.
Ein Sprecher der Deutschen Bundesbank erklärte auf Anfrage, die Notenbank halte an ihrer bereits zuvor formulierten Option fest, in den kommenden fünf Jahren 600 t Gold zu verkaufen. Die Aufteilung unter den beteiligten Institutionen sei aber bislang noch nicht bekannt. Gegenwärtig verfügt die Bundesbank über rund 3.450 t Gold.
vwd/8.3.2004/cv/hab
Eurosystem: Neues 5-jähriges Goldabkommen per 27. September
Frankfurt (vwd) - Die europäischen Notenbanken haben am Montag ein neues Goldabkommen bekannt gegeben. Einer Pressemitteilung der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) zufolge wollen die 15 beteiligten Zentralbanken innerhalb der kommenden 5 Jahre nicht mehr als 2.500 t Gold veräußern. Das jährliche Volumen der Goldverkäufe im Rahmen der ab 27. September laufenden Vereinbarung soll 500 t nicht übersteigen. Die unterzeichnenden Institute betonten in ihrer Erklärung zugleich, Gold bleibe weltweit ein wichtiger Bestandteil der monetären Reserven.
vwd/12/8.3.2004/cv/hab
Kommentar: Da haben wir unser neues Abkommen endlich. Der Goldpreis reagiert, wie zu erwarten war, nicht
ich schätze die Unmengen von Charts die Du hier postet zwar nicht besonders, aber was solls
Es gibt eine ganz simple Möglichkeit aus Wordcharts Grafiken zu erstellen, das ganze Word-dokument als .html abspeichern, bei den erzeugten Dateien hast Du dann Deine Grafik
ist die Frage wie lange sich die Chinesen, Japaner u.a. die Hortung von Dollar und die damit zu hohen Preise leisten können. Etwas zu regeln, wenn man das Problem erkennt, ist meistens besser als zu warten bis der grosse Knall kommt
6$ werden unterschritten am 21.05.04
8$ werden überschritten am 11.11.04
Affinerie entwickelt Solarzellen aus Kupfer
Innovation: Die günstige Fertigung soll das Produkt gegenüber Siliziumzellen konkurrenzfähig machen.
Von Andreas Moring
Hamburg - Die Norddeutsche Affinerie (NA) will mit flexiblen Solarzellen auf Kupferbasis in den Markt für regenerative Energien einsteigen. "Wir haben die Rohstoffe, wir haben die Technologie und wir haben das Wissen, um die neuen CIS-Solarzellen zu einem Erfolg zu machen", sagte NA-Vorstandsvorsitzender Werner Marnette gestern bei der Vorstellung der ersten Prototypen.
Die neuen Solarzellen bestehen aus einer Kupfer-Indium-Selen-Mischung, die als feine Schicht auf ein normales Kupferband aufgetragen wird. Dadurch sind die neuen Solarzellen bis zu 80 Prozent leichter als herkömmliche Siliziumzellen. "Außerdem sind wir in der Produktion 50 Prozent billiger als die heutigen Herstellungsverfahren", sagte Marnette.
Der Grund: Die Norddeutsche Affinerie stellt die Hauptbestandteile der CIS-Zellen, Kupfer und Selen, in ihrem Kerngeschäft selbst her. Ein weiterer Kostenvorteil ist die industrielle Fertigung. "Wir brauchen keine Reinräume oder andere aufwendige und teure Produktionsorte, sondern können die Kupferbänder mit Solarzellen, genauso wie die reinen Kupferbänder, auch produzieren", erklärte Marnette.
Diesen Vorteil will die NA an die Kunden weitergeben. "Der Preis für die CIS-Zellen soll unter 2000 Euro pro Quadratmeter liegen", sagte Marnette. Der heutige Preis für Solaranlagen mit Siliziumzellen beträgt zwischen 4000 und 5000 Euro. Dazu kommt: Schon nach einem Jahr sollen die Ersparnisse bei den Stromkosten den Kaufpreis von CIS-Zellen wieder ausgleichen. Bei Siliziumzellen dauert es dagegen derzeit vier bis fünf Jahre, bis sich die Solaranlage rechnerisch lohnt.
Ein Forschungsteam hatte die neuen Solarzellen und das Verfahren zur Verbindung mit den Kupferbändern in den vergangenen drei Jahren in Hamburg entwickelt. Die Norddeutsche Affinerie investierte seit dem Jahr 2000 insgesamt vier Millionen Euro in das Projekt. In den folgenden drei Jahren will die NA noch einmal fünf Millionen Euro in die Entwicklung stecken. Nach der ersten Phase soll nun die effizienteste Produktionstechnik entwickelt werden. Nach einer Testphase will die NA die Solarzellen 2007 auf den Markt bringen. Experten prognostizieren für die CIS-Technologie ein Wachstum des Marktanteils von heute einem auf 50 bis 75 Prozent.
Für die Vermarktung der neuen Zellen sucht die NA einen Partner aus der Solarbranche. "Unser Kerngeschäft ist und bleibt die Kupferherstellung. Deswegen brauchen wir einen Partner, der sich in der Branche bestens auskennt", sagte Marnette. Gespräche mit verschiedenen Interessenten würden bereits geführt.
erschienen am 4. März 2004 in Wirtschaft
Quelle: Hamburger Abendblatt
Kommentar: Einfach genial, durch die CIS-Zellen fördert die NDA ihre eigenen Märkte für Kupfer, Selen und Indium. Gleichzeitig erscheinen diese neuen Solarzellen auch erhebliche Wirtschaftliche Vorteile im vergleich mit den konventionellen Solarzellen mit sich zu bringen... Vielleicht bietet sich ja in Kürze ein Investment in der Norddeutschen Affenerie an...
nur weil der Silberpreis die 7 Dollar Marke knacken sollte, heisst es noch lange nicht, dass dieses dann auch von Dauer ist...
@Goldbugs
man sollte doch annehmen, dass wenn es keiner weiss, es auch keinen interessiert, womit dann schon wieder nichts passiert...
@Goldbugs
ich könnte mir aber auch gut vorstellen, dass bei Veröffentlichung eines neuen Abkommens über die Begrenzung der Goldverkäufe, nichts passiert, da ja alle Marktteilnehmer dieses erwarten. Einen Anstieg würde ich nur erwarten, wenn das Abkommen deutlich enger gehalten wäre, z.B. nur die Hälfte der Verkäufe des derzeitigen Abkommens erlaubt
Zitat[wir werden heute Intraday auf dem höchsten Stand seit 20 Jahren schließen!
intraday 6,96 USD / Oz Silber... (entspricht 5,62 EUR)
und das ganze in den USA auf einem Freitag kurz vor Handelsschluss
jetzt noch schnell vier Cent dazu und wir haben unsere heiss erwartete 7,00-Dollar-Schwelle
