Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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    Wednesday September 7, 01:23 PM Asia Pulse


    Insatiable China Set To Maintain Commodities Boom In Australia
    SYDNEY, Sept 7 Asia Pulse - The Australian commodities boom is expected to continue in the near-term, fuelled by China's insatiable appetite for raw materials, before moderating slightly in 2006.


    And while Australia was poised to benefit, Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) executive director Dr Brian Fisher said the economy was becoming extremely dependent on Chinese demand.
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    Dr Fisher said commodity prices were expected to ease next year but would not fall dramatically.


    "In terms of base metals, generally speaking we expect to see some moderate easing of prices in 2006 but not dramatic," Dr Fisher told an Australian Business Economists function today.


    "In the case of energy commodities in 2006, at this stage I'd have to say I expect to see prices about the same as we've seen in 2005.


    "It's sort of tailing off but it's going to be a really slow tailing off subject of course to not having any shock."


    Chinese demand currently accounts for 44 per cent of Australia's iron ore orders and 48 per cent of wool orders, he said.


    "We are becoming very, very dependent on the China story for some of our key commodities, something that I'm sure some would arguably be slightly disturbed about," Dr Fisher said.


    "It is really important that we understand what's happening in China and keep an eye on the Chinese story."


    Energy prices were also expected to remain high for several years as the United States maintained healthy economic growth and China and India continued their economic rises.


    "We've got reasonable demand continuing and therefore, we expect to see energy prices holding up for several years, perhaps not at these sorts of levels but holding up," Dr Fisher said.


    "Recently, we've seen enormous levels of mixed investment in China - enormous compared with the proportion of gross domestic product and a lot of that's about infrastructure development."


    There was also some optimism on the agricultural front, with above average rainfall boosting winter grain production forecasts although harvests were still expected to be down on last year.


    An ABARE report released today said 2005/06 winter grain crops were forecast to hit 31.1 million tonnes, down two per cent from last year but higher than previous expectations.


    ASIA PULSE

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    Business


    September 08, 2005


    India and China help gold sales to glittering $38bn
    By Peter Klinger


    RAMPANT economic growth in India and China have propelled consumer demand for gold jewellery to $38 billion (£20.6 billion).


    The World Gold Council said that the record figure for the 12 months to June was driven by favourable conditions in key markets and promotion of the metal.


    The gold price has been comparatively stable, in particular in the past six months, when the price oscillated between $420 per ounce and $440 per ounce. The gold price in London was $445.50 per ounce yesterday.


    The positive trend shows no sign of abating. This comes less than two years after most of the world’s key gold consumption markets reported stagnant conditions as metals such as platinum enjoyed increased popularity.


    The council, which is the marketing arm for the world’s leading goldminers, said that the June quarter had seen record demand in India and a third-successive quarterly increase in Turkey, another key gold jewellery market. The strong demand more than offset a weak performance in the UK, where gold jewellery purchases fell 14 per cent.


    Demand in China, a small but growing market, was up 12 per cent year-on-year.


    Demand for gold last year, including for investment and industrial purposes, also outstripped supply by 152 tonnes.


    The London-based council spends $50 million a year promoting gold jewellery and investment products. Aligned trade partners such as jewellers spend another $50 million.


    James Burton, chief executive of the council, said: “The figures are encouraging, not just for the gold market as a whole but also for the council due to the volume of statistical and other evidence that points to the effectiveness of the promotional campaigns that we are conducting.


    “By 2003, gold jewellery demand in all markets other than Turkey was either stagnant or in decline.


    “We have witnessed a turn-around over the last two years but we must build on this in the future. It is imperative that we not only maintain but increase our promotional efforts if gold jewellery is to either retain or grow its share of consumer spending.”


    Mr Burton said that the massive gold demand in the first six months of this year meant that the second half may be more subdued.


    A higher gold price could also deter investors. However, in India, the single biggest market for gold jewellery, the price of gold in rupees is off its peaks from late last year. India accounted for 517.5 tonnes of the world’s 2,611 tonnes of jewellery demand in 2004-05. The world’s second-most populous nation also accounted for 100.2 tonnes of the 342.7 tonnes of gold purchased by retail investors.


    Investors have increasingly flocked to gold as a hedge against a weak US dollar, while the precious metal continues to be viewed by some as a haven during times of inflation.


    The launch late last year of streetTRACKS Gold Fund, an exchange-traded fund on the New York Stock Exchange to complement the Gold Bullion Securities fund in London, proved a big success.


    GFMS, the leading precious metals consultancy, has forecast that the gold price could hit a 22-year high of $500 per ounce by next May.

    Goldnachfrage steigt stetig an!


    Gold to the moon II. ?


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mineweb.net/pics/logo.gif]


    LONDON (Mineweb.com) --The World Gold Council has released its second-quarter (and therefore also the first-half) figures for gold demand. The numbers, independently compiled for WGC by GFMS Ltd., show a 21% increase in tonnage terms and a 29% increase in dollar terms over the first half of 2004.
    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.bullfire.de/images/smilies/cool.gif]


    And demand was strong enough to absorb a 14% increase in total supply easily despite a 9% increase in the gold price to a pm fixing average of $417.39; the picture is of a vibrant market indeed.


    To put some numbers behind this; the total for the quarter was 949 tonnes, of which jewellery was 728 tonnes. Identifiable investment reached 110 tonnes. Industrial and dental demand rose by 40% to 111 tonnes. Supplies from mine, scrap and the official sector amounted to 895 tonnes during the quarter.


    The second quarter of 2005 was the sixth consecutive quarter of positive year-on-year growth and, probably more significantly, the third consecutive quarter of double digit growth. Seen in their most positive light, the figures show that the twelve months to end-June this year registered record expenditure on jewellery in US dollar terms, at $38 billion, and beating the previous high of 1997.


    The outlook suggests that while many factors supporting the upward demand trend remain in place, the growth in the first half of this year has been so strong that it is possible that the pace will be moderated in the second half. What is particularly encouraging, though, is that reports from the regions where consumers are normally deterred by price volatility [Indian sub-Continent, Middle and Far East] have not yet been greatly deterred by the rise in price that started in late July.


    Jewellery offtake in the first half of the year was up on the first half of 2004 by 17% in tonnage terms and 24% in dollar terms, largely due to a favourable economic backdrop in key markets, continued consumer confidence in higher gold prices and good results from effective promotional activity dating back to 2003. In China the substitution from platinum into white gold has helped, as it has to a degree in Europe and the US, largely as a result of high platinum prices although this is not a new development.


    In terms of growth rates, investment is the star of the show, with tonnage up by 20% in the second quarter and by 66% for the first half as a whole. At the retail level, net investment was up by 36% in tonnage terms and 45% in dollar terms. Most retail investment categories showed strong growth, with double-digit advances for bar hoarding and the purchases of medal and individual coins. This was driven particularly by India, with support from Turkey and Vietnam.


    The Exchange Traded Funds paused for breath during Q2, with total gold invested in the products declining very slightly as redemptions in the less liquid funds marginally outstripped the new creations in StreetTRACKS, the market leader. However, an additional 19 tonnes of new creations in Street Tracks Gold shares during July and August has already more than compensated for the overall decline in the second quarter, putting the sector as a whole back on the growth track.


    Welcome resurgence in jewellery


    Until two years ago jewellery demand in all markets (Turkey apart) was either stagnant or in decline and Jim Burton, the Council’s CEO, commented: “It is imperative that we not only maintain, but increase our promotional efforts if gold jewellery is either to retain or grow its share of consumer spending”. It is noticeable, though, that in the key areas where the Council has been concentrating its promotional campaigns, growth in gold offtake has been stronger than in the majority of other areas.


    The figures bear out the anecdotal evidence that has been coming through from gold dealers over the course of the quarter, especially the sustained strength in demand form India, which registered its highest ever quarterly demand both in tonnage and rupee terms. Offtake reached 277 tonnes, and this exceeded even the surge in demand in the first quarter of 1998, immediately after import liberalisation.


    Highlights: India, the Middle East and China remain vibrant; Europe a problem


    India is the world’s largest market for gold and its 277 tonnes accounted for an astounding 29% of total consumption in the quarter (typically India accounts for 18-20% of total). Jewellery offtake was up by 42% in the quarter over the second quarter of 2004 and by 54% for the first half year against year-ago levels. This was driven by a strong economy, increased promotion and improved rural incomes on the back of high crop prices plus a good winter harvest. Price movements were also important; much of the local market has taken the view that that gold prices are on an upward path and so while prices were easing marginally in the first half of the year they were accordingly seen as buying opportunities.


    In the Middle East, demand was up by 13% aided by strong oil and healthy tourism; local economies are booming and offtake was also helped by the fact that gold prices were below the peaks of 2004. Turkey, one of the major success stories of late, was again strong, with demand up by 7% and the second quarter was up on year-ago levels for the third consecutive year.


    In the US, innovative jewellery has seen very good growth as retailers have focused on strong marketing in an effort to preserve margins; demand was accordingly up by 4% in tonnage terms and 13% in value terms against Q2 2004; and gold outpaced growth in diamond sales in the quarter despite the rise in gold’s price.


    Mainland China is still experiencing low physical investment as it is still very soon after the liberalisation of the investment market at the end of 2004; the promise is there, but it will take time for investment to pock up. Jewellery deregulation though was largely complete in 2003 and the jewellery industry is reaping the reward – enhanced not only by high crop prices but also the rapid growth of K-gold, which is 18-carat material with sophisticated design that is appealing to the urban consumer.


    On the downside, Europe remains a problem area for gold jewellery demand, notably in Italy and the UK where sales fell by 7% and 14% respectively in the face of competition from other materials and ebbing consumer confidence overall.




    Supply up by 14% over the second quarter of 2004


    Total supplies in the second quarter were down against the first quarter at 895t against 1,048 tonnes, largely due to a reduction in official sector supplies and in an increase in de-hedging from the miners.


    Mine production increased slightly to 620t, while the hedge book was reduced by 85 tonnes in the second quarter, giving an 8% increase in mine supply over Q2 2004 to 620t. Official Sector supplies were up by 86% at 147t, while scrap supply was up by only 3% as consumers adjusted to higher prices. The second year of the second Central Bank Gold Agreement kicks off on September 27 so while official sector supplies are likely to have been subdued in the third quarter (because so much of the CBGA metal came out in the fist six months of the CBGA year), it is also likely to pick up in the fourth quarter – at the same time as seasonal demand tends to strengthen further.


    No price forecast, but…


    The Council is prevented for legal reasons from making price forecasts. This column can adduce an interpretation, however – and it must be stressed that this is an editorial comment and does not come from the WGC. Reports for the first part of the third quarter suggest that offtake remains high. Subject always to sharp movements in price the backdrop continues to confirm that the underlying demand pressures in the market are strong and other factors, both fundamental and external, are supportive. Speculators have obviously been taking similar views recently and there are lingering concerns about the speculative overhang, but the underlying tone remains sound.


    Quelle: http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/482260.htm

    „Die Menschen sind so einfältig und hängen so sehr vom Eindruck des Augenblickes ab, dass einer, der sie täuschen will, stets jemanden findet, der sich täuschen lässt.“ (Niccolò Machiavelli)

    Die Oil Inventories sind hoeher als erwartet (gerade veroeffentlicht worden), folglich brechen die Oelpreise gerade ein, Brent Crude und WTI ca. 1.5 Dollar im minus - Dow geht hoch, Gold & Silber wieder runter.


    Starker move beim Oel..

    sell off ist m.E. deutlich uebertrieben, Oel recovert schon wieder.


    Wuerde mich wundern, wenn Brent im minus schliesst - Silber im spot im Tief runter auf 6.96 als Reaktion (m.E. eher psychologisch begruendet), z.Z. schon wieder fester.


    m.E. kein Grund, die ralley abzusagen :)

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    Sehr interessante Überlegungen und Folgerungen:
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    Positive gold signal remains clear
    Barry Sergeant
    '08-SEP-05 16:00'


    JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) --On May 6, Mineweb noted that, for the first time in some two years, Myles Zyblock, RBC Capital Markets chief institutional strategist and director of capital markets research, had identified a “buy” indicator for gold stocks.


    According to Zyblock, among numerous indicators monitored regarding gold bullion and gold stocks, the one with the best track record is one of the simplest: the ratio of the dollar gold spot price to the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index, known as the XAU.


    Zyblock said that when the gold-to-XAU ratio is above 5.0 – an event known for only 12% of the time in the past 22 years - the average annual one-year holding period return for stocks in the XAU has been 38.4%.
    According to Zyblock, the gold-to-XAU ratio indicator tells investors to buy gold shares when it’s above 5.0 times, and to sell gold shares when it’s below 3.0, with a one-year holding period in mind. Back in early May, the ratio stood at 5.08, a clearly bullish signal. Zyblock’s bottom line then was “while one indicator is probably not enough to make a huge bet, this one sure provides compelling food for thought.”


    Today, Zyblock’s bottom line, by way of an update is that “we continue to like gold and gold shares for the long term. We also see opportunity for investors sensitive to shorter-term cycles. The gold-to-XAU ratio currently stands at 4.54. History argues that buying the XAU when the ratio is hovering near these levels should be profitable on a one-year horizon.”


    In his latest analysis, Zyblock notes that gold is now in its sixth year of a secular bull market, and that “if history acts as a useful guide, we could see another 3-5 years of solid performance from gold and gold shares. This positive long-term outlook does not hinge materially on the growth in physical demand for gold. Rather, it’s based on some simple principles of mean reversion and the view that the importance of gold as an alternative investment will grow over time.”


    Fundamental underpinnings for this secular thesis rest, argues Zyblock, with the belief that investor confidence in the fiat (paper) money system’s ability to preserve economic value “will be shaken even further.” He argues, further, that “a gradual decay in sentiment is likely to provide an important lift for gold.”


    Examination of recent stock price performances shows that while gold equities (and indeed gold bullion itself) “might be traversing through the middle phase of a secular bull market, it is also important for us as investors to be mindful of the shorter cycles.”


    Zyblock says that at 4.54, the gold-to-XAU has been this high “only 27% of the time in the past 22 years.” The average annual one-year holding period return for the XAU subsequent to the ratio near its current level has been 20.8%. Importantly, 84% of the time it has been profitable to buy the XAU and hold it for a year when the ratio is where it is today.


    Zyblock reminds that “a good time” to lock in profits from the XAU is when the gold-to-XAU ratio falls below 4.0. Accordingly, Zyblock concludes, perhaps conservatively, that “we believe that investors should continue to hold onto their gold shares.”


    The 13 constituents of the XAU: Barrick, Agnico Eagle, AngloGold Ashanti, Freeport McMoran, Gold Fields, Goldcorp, Glamis Gold, Harmony Gold, Kinross Gold, Meridian Gold, Newmont, Pan American Silver, and Placer Dome.

    @ Edel Man


    Da gibts auch einige die meinen das nochmal ein Tuscher runter kommt wenn die 456 USD Marke nicht geknackt wird. Eine heftige umkaempfte Marke ist das. Durch irgend einer Bombshell oder Trick koennte das PPT noch einmal auf die 429 USD druecken. Darauf sollte jeder gefasst sein und nicht mit "Hurra" jetzt voll einsteigen. Wenn du auf die Chart oben von Dir schaust, dann koennte kurzfristig bis auf den unteren Rand von dem Kreisel der HUI nochmals auf die 200 aufschlagen damit sollte jeder rechnen.


    Erst wenn die 456 Marke Vergangenheit ist der Weg auf die 1000 $ frei die sicher 3 Jahre dauert. ?(



    Bin gespannt ob der Dollar nochmal ein High bekommt durch einen erneuten Brainwash mit den Maerkten und Anlegern. :rolleyes:


    Ich schaetze das der Dollar um 30 % faellt ueber die naechsten Jahre , wichtig ist wie sich Gold in anderen Waehrungen wie Euro/C$/CHF verhaelt.


    Ob der Guru M recht hat Ende des Jahres ?? ...glaube nicht !


    Der schickte heute einen Alert das man Goldstock verkaufen sollte und das ein 400 USD Tsunami kommt, der Dollar nun steigt. ;(


    Entweder ist der Guru ein $ Maulwurf oder es kommt echt so wie er sagt, wir werden es ja sehen.


    Von unseren HUI 160 Guru hoert man auch nicht viel. :D


    Expect the unexpected, trotzdem aufpassen wenn alle zum Angriff blasen.


    Mfg


    XAX

    4 Mal editiert, zuletzt von Aladin ()

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    Aladin


    Das fiel mir auch auf, daß Gold in rel. engem Band schwingt.Typisch für heftiges Bull :Bear.
    Die Fed - Konsorten tun ihr "Bestes".


    Daß der $ stark fällt, ist klar, hab darüber ein Thread "$ auf 61".Das wären genau -30%!! :))
    Der Mahendra ist IMO fest im Griff der $ -Manipulateure.


    400$/oz ist auch Wunschdenken der Gang, sehen wir mE.lange nicht mehr.
    1000$ sind nicht das Ende der Fahnenstange,zeitlich kann das keiner echt abschätzen.Gibt wilde Fantasien.


    Und mit fallweisen Tauchern haben wir doch zu leben gelernt! :]
    Klein -Guru schnappt etwas nach Luft.
    Vielleich ist die nächste Signatur "HUI 300....." ;)


    Grüsse

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    Nochmal zum Hui


    zur Wahl gestellt, kannste dem Godmode Trader sicher eher vertrauen als diesem merkwürdigen M.Guru.
    Ganz aktuell:


    Grüsse
    ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
    08.09.2005 - 19:04
    Amex Gold BUGS Index startet erneut...
    (©GodmodeTrader - http://www.godmode-trader.de/)


    AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI) : 214,70 $ (+1,74%)


    Aktueller Wochenchart (log) seit Juni.2002 (1 Kerze = 1 Woche)


    Kurz-Kommentierung: Nach dem Ausbruch über den bei 207,75 Punkten liegenden starken Kreuzwiderstand Anfang Juli fiel der AMEX Gold Bugs Index in den Vorwochen nochmals zurück. Der dabei erfolgte Rücksetzer auf den gebrochenen mittelfristigen Abwärtstrend bei 198,00 Punkten ist als Ausbruchsbestätigung zu sehen und wird jetzt wieder gekauft. Mittelfristig bietet sich entsprechend weiteres Kurspotenzial bis in den Bereich 240,81 Punkten, am Hoch er Vorwochen bei 219,34 Punkten kann es nochmals zu einem Rücksetzer kommen. Das übergeordnet bullische Setup wird aktuell aber erst bei einem Rückfall unter 198,00 Punkte auf Schlussbasis gefährdet.

    "" am Hoch der Vorwochen bei 219,34 Punkten kann es nochmals zu einem Rücksetzer kommen. Das übergeordnet bullische Setup wird aktuell aber erst bei einem Rückfall unter 198,00 Punkte auf Schlussbasis gefährdet. "
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Genau das habe ich gemeint Edel Man. ;)


    Spaetestens bei 240 sind Gewinnmitnahmen, die setzen dann auch zurueck.


    Gnight


    XAX

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Aladin ()

    Zitat

    Erst wenn die 456 Marke Vergangenheit ist der Weg auf die 1000 $ frei die sicher 3 Jahre dauert.


    Das wäre dann so ganz nach meinem Geschmack....sollte der Goldpreis in den nächsten 3 Jahren über 1.000US$ gehen hätte ich ausgesorgt :D :D
    Meine Minenwerte hätten sich bis dahin mindestens verfünffacht.....das sollte dann für meine Immobilienpläne und einen ruhigen Lebensabend reichen....hiefür wäre ich sogar bereit 4 Jahre zu warten :] :] :]


    Grüsse

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    Zitat

    Original von valueman


    Meine Minenwerte hätten sich bis dahin mindestens verfünffacht.....


    Jo, es darf wieder geschwärmt werden. ;)
    Aber mit der Verfünffachung sei nicht so sicher, in der Hausse läuft das Metall auch mal besser.
    Aber die Juniors haben dann tatsächlich den großen Hebel.
    Einzelne Werte gehen durch die Decke und ziehen den Markt. :]


    Und wer nach dicken Gewinnmitnahmen noch etwas länger wartet,sieht Gold bei 1600 und mehr $/OZ. :D


    Grüsse

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    Zitat

    Original von Edel Man

    Und wer nach dicken Gewinnmitnahmen noch etwas länger wartet,sieht Gold bei 1600 und mehr $/OZ. :D



    Wenn denn der Dollar in der heute bekannten Form noch existiert.
    Vielleicht ist nach Platzen einiger Blasen sowas wie eine Weltwährungsreform eingeführt worden.


    Aber das sind langfristige Visionen.
    Die Märkte sind oft unberechenbar,und beim $ wirken eh mächtige Interessen.


    Grüsse

    Edel Man


    Bin fast ausschliesslich in Juniors und Mid Size Produzenten mit starker Wachstumsperspektive und hochgradigen Assets investiert....erwarte mir hier den besten Hebel in Phase 2. der Gold-Hausse. Dazu noch ein Rand-Play....müsste passen. Wahrscheinlich werden ab einem gewissen Oz/$ Preis der Goldpreis alleine und nicht zwangsläufig die Minen steigen (Phase 3. der Gold-Hausse)...aber bis zu einem gewissen Punkt laufen die Minen exponential.


    Das dürfte meiner Meinung nach mindestens bis zum 80er Top der Fall sein....also so um die 850US/Oz.....danach ist es mit Sicherheit ratsam einen nicht unerheblichenTeil der Gewinne in physisches Gold (u. Silber ) zu tauschen bzw. auch in andere Anlageformen zu investieren. Zu einem geringen (spekulativen) Teil kann man mit Sicherheit auch den von uns erwarteten Gold- und SilberTsunami mit Call-Optionsscheinen ausreiten. :P :P :P


    Grüsse

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    valueman


    Ist sicher kein Zufall, daß rd. 80 % meiner PM - Werte Kanadier
    und zwar dito Juniors und Midcaps sind. :]


    Wenn es dann soweit ist,--dafür gibts neben eigener Meinung auch guten
    Gedankenaustausch,--ist Gewinnabsicherung oberstes Gebot.


    Aber bis dahin können wir noch rumoptimieren. :))


    Grüsse

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    valueman et


    Kleine Ergänzung:


    Golden Star Res./ GSC wird auch als Senior angesehen.
    Ändert überhaupt nichts.


    Hätte auch gern noch Goldcorp / G und Glamis / GLG.
    Sind Dauerläufer für Langfristanlage.
    Hatte beide früh verkauft. Dafür eben nun die Rennpferde,
    die mit den Hufen scharren :].


    Grüsse

    Hallo Ihr Goldbullen,


    hab mich lang nicht gemeldet, da einiges zu tun war.


    Über Gold kann man ja nur froh sein, die Entwicklung scheint überaus positiv zu verlaufen. Mit einem hohen Ölpreis im Rücken und einem (langen?) Winter vor der Tür sollte es jetzt bis Jahresende stetig aufwärts gehen.


    Sorgen macht mir allerdings das Silber. Gestern wieder äußerst schwach. Ich hoffe nur, dass es sich einem Goldanstieg nicht widersetzen kann.

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    Gold und Silber werden beide sprinten.
    Für Silber gilt grundsätzlich das vorher zu Gold gesagte:
    heftiger Fight zwischen Bull und Bear.


    Silber müsste nach oben ausbrechen,
    beide PM befeuern sich normalerweise.


    Prima Analyse heute in Goldseiten.de.


    Silver


    Hier sieht man schön,wie ein relativ enges Band gebildet wird:

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