Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Edel Man

Bin fast ausschliesslich in Juniors und Mid Size Produzenten mit starker Wachstumsperspektive und hochgradigen Assets investiert....erwarte mir hier den besten Hebel in Phase 2. der Gold-Hausse. Dazu noch ein Rand-Play....müsste passen. Wahrscheinlich werden ab einem gewissen Oz/$ Preis der Goldpreis alleine und nicht zwangsläufig die Minen steigen (Phase 3. der Gold-Hausse)...aber bis zu einem gewissen Punkt laufen die Minen exponential.

Das dürfte meiner Meinung nach mindestens bis zum 80er Top der Fall sein....also so um die 850US/Oz.....danach ist es mit Sicherheit ratsam einen nicht unerheblichenTeil der Gewinne in physisches Gold (u. Silber ) zu tauschen bzw. auch in andere Anlageformen zu investieren. Zu einem geringen (spekulativen) Teil kann man mit Sicherheit auch den von uns erwarteten Gold- und SilberTsunami mit Call-Optionsscheinen ausreiten.

Grüsse

Hallo Ihr Goldbullen,

hab mich lang nicht gemeldet, da einiges zu tun war.

Über Gold kann man ja nur froh sein, die Entwicklung scheint überaus positiv zu verlaufen. Mit einem hohen Ölpreis im Rücken und einem (langen?) Winter vor der Tür sollte es jetzt bis Jahresende stetig aufwärts gehen.

Sorgen macht mir allerdings das Silber. Gestern wieder äußerst schwach. Ich hoffe nur, dass es sich einem Goldanstieg nicht widersetzen kann.

Silber wird sich einem steigenden Goldpreis auf jeden Fall anschließen und meiner Meinung nach sogar outperformen....da ist der Markt noch viel enger wie bei Gold....wenn da mal die Post abgeht dann aber mal richtg und vor allem schnell.....gilt natürlich für beide Richtungen.
Mir ist um Silber nicht bange.....die Zeit des Silbers kommt noch

Sehe ich aehnlich - allerdings dominiert Gold nach wie vor als Krisenwaehrung, diesen Status hat Silber nicht und wird es auch vermutlich nicht so schnell einnehmen. Grosses Kapital fliesst also vornehmlich in Gold, wenn Inflation droht - das Umdenken duerfte nicht ueber Nacht kommen.

Ich bin vor wenigen Tagen 50.000 Unzen long gegangen mit Stop bei 6.85 - gestern musste ich zittern, nicht ausgestoppt zu werden, low m.E. bei 6.91. Aber wenn's wirklich dieses Jahr noch auf 7.50 geht, freu ich mich natuerlich auch entsprechend. Chancen ueberwiegen m.E. die Risiken im aktuellen Umfeld.

Druecken wir die Daumen!

Ein alter Beitrag von Gerbino , aber immer noch aktuell. :))

BASE METAL STOCKS: A BULL MARKET BEYOND EXPECTATIONS

By Kenneth J. Gerbino
March 29, 2005

I believe the base metal stocks are going to extend their bull market for a long time and well beyond the consensus "group think". There will be corrections along the way but I believe these stocks are going to surprise everyone over the next few years. My reasoning follows below.

I believe precious metal mining stocks should be in everyone's portfolio but I also think it is a good idea to have some exposure to base and other metals (copper, zinc, nickel, lead, chromium, aluminum).

In order to understand a major change that could take place in an investment sector one can gain insights from a major change that took place in another sector.

I remember twenty years ago when Intel was producing computer chips, which at the time had become like a commodity item. From 1985-1995, Intel sold for only 7-12 times earnings because of the then "commodity" aspect of chips and the fact the computer industry was at that time a cyclical industry. By 2000, Intel was selling for 60 times earnings because of the Internet, laptop and cell phone usage explosion (mega-trends creating a new electronic marketplace with a more sustained demand for chips). Even today, after the tech stock wipeout, Intel is still selling for 20 times earnings.

A similar usage explosion has now started in base metals. The corresponding new mega-trend is Asian and Indian base metal demand. Base metal stocks are now selling at only 5-8 times cash flow. Old time base metal investors are locked into the past thinking of the cyclical nature of the industry. Three billion Asian and Indian people say "no way". Any structural or sustained demand for these metals could increase cash flow multiples to 12-16 times or more. This has significant implications. It means that even if the prices of these base metals go down by 25-35%, because of the multiple expansions, the base metal stocks will still be buys.

Even with just 2-3% growth in Asia and India (current growth rates are 8-9%) a steady demand for resources will create a more sustained and structural market for these metals. A steady demand would change the "cyclical" aspect of base metal demand and this would be reflected in higher cash flow multiples and higher stock prices. Tight supplies also will help stock values.

The latest data from China shows that 82% of their capital spending is on housing and infrastructure (roads, power plants, railroads, sewers etc.). Even with only 2-3% growth, China's capital spending should be a long-term positive non-cyclical factor to metal demand, as these infrastructure projects will last for decades as huge rural populations enter their new economic world. In the more established economies, capital spending is more cyclical because people are buying cars and TV sets and washing machines based on the economy, which can go up and down. But newly industrializing countries do not stop building roads and power plants when their economies slow down. Infrastructure projects are usually not cyclical since they have State backing and many times are not curtailed despite poor economic conditions. In the current age of debt financing and printing money by world governments, it would be hard to imagine politicians considering canceling a power dam or major highway because of a slowdown in the economy. It will not happen in China or in India. The projects in the U.S during the great depression and many projects in Asia during the Asian meltdown are good examples of large state projects that continued despite all. Therefore one can expect a robust demand for base metals for a very long time even with substantial slowdowns in India and Asia.

China will attempt to talk down their economic growth and try and get the hedge funds and speculators out of the metal markets so they can buy cheaper on world markets. But with 82% of their capital spending on housing and huge infrastructure projects any economic slowdown will still require a sustained demand for these metals.

Because of this change from a cyclical nature of base metal demand to a more structural and smoothed out demand, the valuations and cash flow multiples for the base metal producers I believe could have a possible dramatic shift upwards. Also it is just a matter of time before they start paying out solid dividends.

Asian analysts are missing the boat on the compounding of metal demand. Demand growth of plus 10% for a given year, followed by a major slowdown to only 3% in the next year is still bullish. When you do the math you start with, lets say, normal demand of 100,000 tonnes of some metal, that then goes to 110,000 tonnes (10% higher) and prices respond upwards. Now in the next year, if you go down to only a 3% growth rate that means you are now increasing demand from the 110,000 tonnes by another 3%. That means demand in year two is 113,300 tonnes. That's still more demand than what caused the price to go up in the first place. Get the picture? If 110,000 tonnes created a price rise, then a 113,300 tonne demand the following year will certainly do it again unless supply turns up from somewhere and in the mining business this means 5-10 year lead times. Even a slowdown in Asia and India is bullish for the metals.

Cash flow multiples should also increase for these mining stocks due to two other long term inflation inducing economic mega-trends we have discussed many times (global money printing and increasing debt levels).

At the recent The Bank of Montreal Nesbitt Burns annual institutional mining conference every CEO from the base metal companies that presented had the same story; demand was very strong and not letting up and that warehouse supplies globally of many basic metals are very low. They see significant supply squeezes for the next 2-3 years. BHP, the largest natural resource company in the world right now makes more profits from base metals than any other business sector including petroleum, coal, steel materials, or diamonds. BHP is currently bidding $7 billion for base metal producer WMC. Xstrata ($6.5 billion mining giant) was also bidding about $6 billion. These big conservative mining companies know their industry and I believe they see sufficient evidence that a new base metal decade is coming to this world.

Some junior companies with quality base metal, or massive sulfide deposits and other important metals may also be good buy out candidates for other resource companies as these juniors develop their projects.

A new "materials" centric world is unfolding for billions of people who desire a better lifestyle and are demanding it Technology, education, globalization, and communication, are driving this desire. This is a huge unstoppable mega-trend. The resource sector will be a solid investment theme because of this and the base metal sector will most likely be a leading beneficiary.

Ken Gerbino
Kenneth J. Gerbino & Company
Investment Management

Zitat Ghost: .....Gestern musste ich zittern....

Have a nice weekend

Edel Man,

ich wuerde mich nicht als Profi im Trading bezeichnen. Ganz im Gegenteil, bin Broker und damit notorisch ungeschickt im Trading

Gegen Stops habe ich einfach eine ueber die Jahre gewachsene Aversion, trotzdem halte ich mich ueberlicherweise dran.. des guten alten money managements wegen

Gerade in den letzten Wochen wurde ich mehrfach in groesseren Positionen ausgestopt, just in dem Moment, als der Markt drehte und mir dicke Gewinne beschert haette... daher traf ich in der gestrigen Marktbewegung im Silber quasi auf einen alten Angstgegner, da ich fundamental von deutlich festeren Silberpreisen ueberzeugt bin.

mfG

Da habt ihr Recht. Die größte Chance des Silbers ist seine Marktenge. In Zusammenhang mit einem steigenden Goldpreis kann sich hier urplötzlich etwas entladen. Auch in kurzer Zeit. Ähnlich wie von Herbst 2004 bis Januar 2005. In diesen 3 Monaten ist Silber um ca. (ganz grob) 50% gestiegen.

Das wären p.a. Kurse im zweistelligen Bereich zum Jahresende. Die Hoffnung stirbt zuletzt.
Auf lange Sicht von vielleicht 3 bis 10 Jahren ist Silber sicher eine der besten Anlagen überhaupt. Die Börse traurert allerdings immer noch den exorbitanten Kurssteigerungen eines Neuen Marktes hinterher.
Gut Ding will Weile haben.