Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

D´accord !!!

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan011406.html

Frage ich mich auch!!

Yabbadabbaduuuuuh!

Friday, January 13, 2006, 1:58:00 AM EST

Gold and Dollar Market Summary

Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGA:

We are now multi days above the $529 plus 3%. COT must be sweating bullets over that development. Gold will, IMO, see and exceed both $682 and $750, bring dismemberment to the shorts and prosperity to gold and gold share investors.

Yepp!!
Edel Man

Mal wieder ein Optimist nach Gusto der Goldfans
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Gold Price Objective

By: Alf Field

With the gold price pushing to new 25 year highs, it is probably a good time to take stock of the longer term picture to see where the gold price might be heading. This will also enable us to see how far we have progressed into the new bull market.

I regard the following point and figure chart of the gold price as being of extreme importance. It is a 5 point/$5 reversal point and figure chart using only closing prices. That means that only moves of $25 or more are reflected in the chart. This, combined with the use of closing prices only, eliminates most of the froth and “atmospherics” in the market and gives one a clear long term picture of what has happened. This chart of the gold price goes back to 1982 and depicts very clearly the massive quarter-century long base that has formed under the $500 level, from which there has recently been a dramatic upside break-out.

There are various methods of determining price objectives from point and figure charts. In this case I will use the base count. The longer or wider the base, the higher the price objective will be. The method of calculation is to add up the number of columns in the base, multiply by the number of blocks in a minimum reversal and multiply by the value of each block. Then add the top price in the base, i.e. the breakout point.

It may sound complicated but it is not. In the chart above the base actually extends further left, prior to 1982, so we cannot get the exact number of columns. There are however at least 150 columns visible, so we can use that as the size of the base. It is a 5 block reversal and each block represents $5, with the top of the base at $500.

The calculation is thus 150x5x$5 = $3,750 + $500 = $4,250. This figure of $4,250 is the price objective that can theoretically be achieved over the long term from the support offered by this base. :))

Naturally $4,250 is a long-term target, not something that will be achieved next month or next year. Its great benefit is giving us an idea of what is possible in this new bull market. I believe that the recent break above $500, combined with the changing characteristics of the gold market, are clear evidence that gold is in a new bull market.

If we look at the potential peak as being about $4,250 and the start of the bull market being around $250, we can immediately see that only around 7% ($300) of the bull market’s upside potential has been exhausted. In other words, this gold bull market is in its very early stages when viewed in this long term perspective.

As always there will be downside corrections along the way, some of which may be of scary proportions ?(. It will be important to keep this long term perspective in mind as those corrections will obviously be very good opportunities to increase ones gold and gold share holdings.

A shorter term price objective can be calculated from the vertical column that took gold above $500. This column contains 13 blocks which multiplied by $25 gives $325 as the potential upside move from the base of the column. The base price was $460, so the shorter term price target is $460+$325= $785 :].

Another important change that should be anticipated will be in the gold “over-bought/over-sold” and sentiment indicators that have been developed and used over the past 25 years. This was a period mainly of bear market and the early “wall of worry” stage of the bull market. These levels and indicators will be found wanting or will simply fail to give any practical signals as we move into the new bull market. Eventually they will be discarded and new indicators appropriate for the new bull market will be developed.

When 90% of people are bullish, the gold price will be above $4,000. Currently only a very small percentage of the financially astute community have any idea of what is happening in the gold market. The wider public have no idea whatsoever about gold, unless they are French or have lived in countries that have destroyed their currencies, such a Zimbabwe.

Alf Field

13 January 2006

ajfield@attglobal.net

Gibt erfrischend seinen Irrtum zu.
Mit Ansichten und weiteren Aussichten:
____________________________

I was wrong about a correction
Bob Moriarty
Archives
January 17, 2006

On December 12th I posted a piece saying gold and silver were topping. Gold immediately plummeted $50 to $492 in ten days. Then I wrote a piece calling for a dead cat bounce which might even test the old highs. Gold promptly shot right back up to $540. Thinking three was a charm, I then posted a piece saying gold was going to go down after the dead cat bounce.

Three is not a charm. (But that hat sure tasted good). Gold took a $6 dump for one day and has done nothing but go up ever since. So what's the story?

Gold was due for a correction and from the looks of it, it was short and brutal if that was all we get. I'm still of a mind that gold is due a correction but it keeps rocketing higher. Bill Fleckenstein says it's China. And if it is, the dollar is toast and gold is going a lot higher.

Every gold bug wants to ask his favorite GURU how high gold is going up and most of the gold gurus fall into exactly the same trap. They forget gold can't change its value. An ounce of gold is worth an ounce of gold. It's not gold which changes its value, it's the dollar which is dropping. The dollar changes its value every day and has done so ever since August 15 of 1971 when Nixon took the US off the gold standard. Gold can't change its price but the dollar can go to zero.

Here's the real answer and the reason Dr. Marc Faber uses what seems to be such an outrageous figure for where he says gold might go. Imagine for a minute that the United States wanted to start all over financially. Say we took all the gold in Ft. Knox and under the New York Fed and in West Point (if it still exists at all). Take all the gold, all 256,000,000 ounces and revalue it to a figure high enough to pay off the true debt of the United States today. Go ahead, work the number out yourself, if I gave it to you, you would never believe it. And by the way the debt today on a cash basis is $51 trillion. Divide $51 trillion by 256 million ounces. If you insist on a dollar value for gold, that's a reasonable number. Do it yourself.

I have been exceptionally concerned about the rise in gold because it could just as easily be hot money chasing security in case we use atomic bombs in Iran in an effort to make sure they cannot defend themselves against Israel. We all know and accept that in the Middle East the only country which possesses WMD is Israel. And it's Israel goading the US first into attacking Iraq and now threatening Syria and Iran. Face it, as an American, if you feel threatened by Syria or Iraq or Iran, you are certifiable. We aren't threatened and never have been. And no one else in the neighborhood is threatened. But Israel feels threatened and through either bribery or simple blackmail, Israel controls the United States government and indeed, brags about it.

Why shouldn't you be proud of the power you hold? Israel is and commands the obedience of Hillary Clinton and John Kerry just as much as that of George Bush. If we allow Israel to goad us into using atomic bombs against Iran, not only are we going to lose the war, it will be the very destruction of the United States of America.

And don't believe in the "nuclear bunker busters" crap the Pentagon is trying to spin. A bunker is a hole in the ground. You cannot destroy a bunker by digging a hole in the ground. Even a giant hole in the ground filled with the blood of hundreds of thousands of innocent people. A nuclear bunker buster is an atomic bomb. The F-16s of Israel lack the range to attack Iran with conventional weapons. And the Bush administration has pretty much wiped out our ground attack capability in the target range that Iraq has become. Iran has spread out their nuclear work over 300 facilities and we simply cannot destroy them without the murder of millions of people.

Both the Chinese and the Russians have a vested interest in Iran. If the nuclear facilities get nuked by either Israel or the US, the first guy killed is going to be a Russian. That's a really really bad idea, almost a world class bad idea. But the Chinese want energy from Iran and they don't want the high test brand which glows in the dark. So don't for a minute believe the Chinese are going to let the Likud party and their agents in the US government pull another 'Iraq' on the world.

It makes all the sense in the world for the Chinese to resist the pressure of US domination in the same way that the actions of our government have moved voters to vote into power more radical governments all the way from Iran to Venezuela to Bolivia to Chile. The rest of the world is getting very tired of a rogue nation totally out of control. So it's possible that we nuke Iran and just as possible that China or Russia or Hong Kong or Japan decides enough is enough and yanks the financial rug out from under the United States.

As I have made it clear for 4 1/2 years now, we are in a gold bull market and a dollar bear market . This administration is hell bent on the destruction of the dollar. Perhaps the day has come.

No one lost money taking action on what I said but people may well have taken money off the table that now they wish they hadn't. I'm sorry, but we did the same thing and I said what I believe. Now I'm hoping for a correction because the alternative may be horrible.

But in any case, you need to have a game plan. Do what makes sense to you. If you want to believe gold is going up for eight days in a row and then corrects for a day and then goes up for another eight days in a row, it might happen. Someone is buying, not $50 a day but $5 and $10 a day which they might do for a long time. If Bush has finally destroyed the dollar, all bets are off and no one can predict price action.
Bob Moriarty
President: 321gold
Archives

321gold Inc

Hatte heute früh schon berichtet (in valuemans Depot),daß am Montag Gewinnmitnahmen.
Aber bei weitem keine 50 %,denn das Depot ist mittel-bis langfristig angelegt..

Einige Werte waren zu schwer,andrerseits Munition für das nächste Gefecht besorgt.

Auch sind gelegentliche Umschichtungen gesund.

Daneben waren die PM´s zu übergewichtig gegenüber diversen anderen Aktien.

Grüsse

Nunja,wer an die Elliot - Theorie glaubt,wird hier seine Freude finden.

Halte die aufgezeigten Werte und Zeiten dennoch für gut denkbar.

Sehr gut ,immer wieder die Haussephasen erläutert zu sehen.

Kaufrausch:
Interessante Überlegungen mE im Hinblick auf Dein Projekt!

Grüsse
Edel Man

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/watson/watson011706.html

Zitat

Original von Kaufrausch

meinst Du unser Analyseprojekt? Und was meinst du da genau?

Jo,das meine ich.

Da bin ich als gelegentlicher Betrachter dabei.
Diese Sysiphusarbeit tue ich mir nicht an

Hab im Leben genug Großprojekte als PM durchgezogen.

Lies mal den Watson näher durch.
Der macht doch interessante Angaben über Zyklen,zeitlich und grössenmässig.
Zwar alles hypothetisch,aber eben Parameter,aus der Sicht Elliot - Theorie..

Den hebe ich mir mit meinen Anmerkungen mal auf.

Grüsse