Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Gold Bull Stage Two 3

Adam Hamilton
Archives
May 5, 2006

As a mere mortal I cannot see the future, but I suspect gold will be sold. The big question in my mind is whether gold's huge amplitude of swings relative to the dollar will continue. If it does gold could fall sharply, which is probable if short-term speculators have the upper hand. If this amplitude doesn't hold to the downside though, if long-term investors are dominating, then gold's correction on a dollar rally may be mild.

Either way, corrections in secular bulls are totally normal and healthy, and they are good for both investors and speculators. They bleed off excessively bullish sentiment and lay the foundations for the next powerful upleg. They also provide the best buying opportunities that we ever see in secular bulls. Investors can add to their long-term positions at relatively cheap levels and speculators can load up on high-leverage trades for the next upleg....more

http://www.321gold.com/editori…ilton/hamilton050506.html

Guten Morgen

Die Richtung vom HUI ist eher nach oben als stark nach unten. IMO
Die Investoren wollen anscheinend den schnellen Anstieg bei Gold und Silber noch nicht umsetzen in Aktien so wie es aussieht.
Der HUI wird sicher nachziehen wenn die ersten Funds begreifen das die Gold Hausse bleibt. Es ist nur eine Frage der Zeit, also Geduld.
Mich stoert es nicht da ich fast auf 50% Aktien und 50% physical Gold bin. Die Gewinne bei Aktien sollte man am besten in Barren und Muenzen anlegen und nicht in eine Fiat Waehrungen wie USD.
Den beleiht man am besten und kauft Gold.

Hier kurz eine Zusammenfassung der letzten Woche.

From yesterday’s Midas report by Bill Murphy of LemetropoleCafe.com:

“A highly regarded gold analyst/fund manager in Canada told a colleague there is almost ZERO Canadian institutional interest in the gold share market. Figures ... one of the grandest market moves in history is upon us and very few are onboard ... which is why the shares can’t get out of their own way YET!

The thinking of many of the share buyers is they can't see why gold is where it is in the first place. Since it MUST correct, why buy the shares now ... wait for the inevitable correction, one almost EVERY gold pundit is calling for.

The higher gold goes the more nervous investors and fund managers become over buying. It's nutsville.

Maybe when gold goes $900 bid, they will wake up.

Gold has risen for two weeks and the HUI has gone nowhere. Ludicrous! When the light bulb goes off the HUI will rally 35 points in a day. All of a sudden there will be nothing for sale in the smaller golds and many of the good ones will double in days.”

From The Hightower Report, Futures Analysis and Forecasting:

“The gold market saw mostly favorable outside market conditions throughout the session, even if the US numbers weren't completely stellar and the Dollar wasn't particularly under heavy pressure. On the other hand, the oil market remained somewhat calm for most of the session despite concerns that the weekend could bring some surprise flight to quality Iranian development. In the end, the ramping up of equity prices into new highs seemed to suggest that ongoing growth and profitability was going to be extend ed in the US economy. The Press suggested that ongoing strength in the Euro was providing the lion's share of the gains in gold and considering that silver at times was lower on the day that argument seems to carry fundamental weight. In the end, the new high close seemed to signal that investment interest in gold came out of the week every bit as strong as it was when it entered the week.

The silver market was certainly the most vulnerable precious metals market in the final two sessions of the week. Apparently the silver market wasn't s seeing as much currency related buying interest in gold and with silver failing to benefit from the stellar rise in copper it would also seem like the physical demand outlook for silver is being questioned. Certainly one looks to the investment demand and the conditions that measure the interest from that area and it is difficult no to come to the conclusion that investment demand for silver has remained strong.”

The U.S. dollar index fell to new 1 year lows and treasuries gained as the economically disappointing jobs report reduced expectations for further interest rate hikes after the fed’s next meeting. The yield on the 10-year fell from its highest since May of 2002.

Oil remained near $70 as traders weighed ample supplies and flat demand versus geopolitical concerns.

The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P rose on hopes for a pause in interest ra tes hikes soon. The Dow rose to new 6 year highs.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsim…tory/48403_Sinclair12.jpg]

Dear CIGAs,

Gold having traded this morning above $682 is bringing in some selling into gold shares exactly as it did when we first touched $612.

This is in a way a compliment to this site, but possibly an error in judgment by the position holders.

The reason I say this is twofold:

1. It is not the old gold community that has been responsible for the brisk move from $612 to the present. It is international investment banks whose funds relative to the tiny gold market and smaller gold share market are infinite.

2. The market, although helped by a falling dollar, is truly a product of the shifting dynamic in the political position of Iran and therefore the entire Middle East. All the fundamental damage in the dollar equation can be tracked back to this changing political dynamic and the “follow the money” financial impact it has had on the US while that country enjoys prosperity in all its markets and most of its industries.

There is little chance the Iranian situation, the Iraq situations or US economic policy will make abrupt changes from their present direction. Because of these factors the only selling one should do at $682 gold is to remove any debt you have against your position.

http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhom…&archive=&highstr=&UArts=

linar

linar

"" Because of these factors the only selling one should do at $682 gold is to remove any debt you have against your position.""

Das habe ich schon teilweise gemacht sowie mehr Seniors gekauft die es weniger schuettelt bei einer starken Korrektur.

Cheers

XEX

Den Senior bestimmt nicht , Linar

AngloGold hedge backfires as price hits 25-year high

"By Julia Kollewe
Published: 06 May 2006

"AngloGold Ashanti, the world's third-largest gold miner,
posted a loss for the first three months of the year
yesterday as bullion prices climbed to a 25-year high.

"The South African mining group took a hit from losses on
forward sales contracts, in which it had agreed to sell
gold in the future at a fixed price."

Spin, spin, spin ... not what your Daddy was supposed to take
away, and nothing to do with surf boards, but what he was supposed to tell you. A take off comment from the Beach Boys.

This latest comment on the real deal re the hedging of ANGLOGOLD, unlike all we saw all day long from Planet Wall Street, is more like it.

Zitat

Original von Eldorado
linar

"" Because of these factors the only selling one should do at $682 gold is to remove any debt you have against your position.""

Das habe ich schon teilweise gemacht sowie mehr Seniors gekauft die es weniger schuettelt bei einer starken Korrektur.

Cheers

XEX

Alles anzeigen

...merci Eldo ich hab mich auch schon von einigen befreit - sitze jetzt auf ziemlich cash (...und natürlich auch auf ein paar Barren ) da ich in zwei Wochen nach Espana verreise bin ich dann nicht so flexibel - werde mich aber hier orientieren soweit es die Stromkabel zulassen

ist ein [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-board/images/smilies/supi.gif]board
linar

;)Linar, 5-10 % Cash sollte man immer bereithaben fuer Schnaeppchen.

Es ist gut das du nun bald Ferien machst, wird ja Zeit das der naechste von uns auf Urlaub geht.

Viele sagen es hilft den PoG und den Aktien.

Geh Lupo ? :D... ich glaube der ist auch weg.

Na dann Viva Espana und VIVIR !

Urlaubszeit, auch beim HUI

XEX

Moin Bugs,

ich seh' nach wie vor nur reziproke Korrekturen. Und jetzt die Preisfrage: Sind wir nächste Woche bei >700 oder <600 USD? Meine Prognose: Es geht über die 700 und dann vielleicht wieder etwas runter bis vielleicht 640-670. Das wäre gesund und ein neuer Anlauf in Richtung der 850 USD.

Ich bleibe dabei: Wer auf starke Korrekturen für den Kauf wartet, wird den Zug endgültig verpassen! Weil die Fondsmanager auch nicht blöd sind. Die kaufen sich jetzt ein, bevor die Jahresendrallye losgeht.

Es grüßt

KR

KR, da niedrigste im Moment was ich vorrausehen kann ist das Gold auf 615 USD fallen kann und der HUI auf die 350 im Fall das PPT haut wieder zu.
Hebt Euch Cash auf fuer diesen Fall, zwischen Mai und September waren immer gute Einkaufstage in der Vergangenheit..
Bei den Oil und Gas Aktien ruehrt sich ja auch nicht viel trotz der 70 Dollar/Barrel.

Lets go all on Holiday !

Gruss

Eldo

Hallo Eldo,

ich hab die Preise soeben korrigiert. War ein Versehen. Da kommt man ja gar nicht mehr mit ... 500, 600, 700 ...

Viele Grüße

KR

COMMODITIES - NEW HIGHS OR SAME OLD LOWS

Friday, May 05, 2006

We all keep hearing about new highs that the commodities are making. Lets take a look at some of them to see where the prices have been and where they are going.

What does one use as a measurement as the purchasing power of the dollar keeps dropping, how can you measure something when the yardstick keeps changing? The government numbers on inflation are taken from Alice in Wonderland or maybe from Disney World, I am not sure but they are not of the real world which most of us have to live in.........

Copper in 1973 was $1312.00 per m/t or about 59 cents a pound
Copper in 2006 hit $3.25 per pound.
A new high for copper would have to be over $6.00 per pound.
Needs to double

Gold in 1973 was $3,150,000.00 per m/t or $98.00 per ounce
Gold in 2006 was up to $640.00 per ounce
A new high for gold would be about $990.00 per ounce.
Will be there shortly

Nickel in 1973 was $3370.00 per m/t or about $1.54 per pound.
Nickel in 2006 is about $8.75 per pound.
A new high for nickel would have to be over $16.00 per pound.
Needs to double

Silver in 1973 was $82,310.00 per m/t or about $2.55 per ounce.
Silver in 2006 was about $14.79 per ounce.
A new high for silver would have to be over $26.00 per ounce.
Needs to double

Zinc in 1973 was $456.00 per m/t or about $.21 per pound.
Zinc in 2006 is about $3360.00 per m/t or about $1.52 per pound.
A new high for Zinc would have to be over $2.15 per pound.

.......

If one cut a little off a yard stick each year the same as what the dollar has lost in purchasing power we would have about a 2 inch yardstick. Would anyone use it? Would anyone draw a chart using a yard as a standard of measurement? No. Then why compare past dollars to today’s dollar. It is useless information.......

full story: http://www.freemarketnews.com/…05-05.asp?wid=39&nid=4780

@Eldo - ob ich auch so einen Ferien-Effekt hinbekomme jedenfalls beim nächsten Vollmond werde ich einen Korken knallen lassen
@Edel - Btw.: Bitte beachte das C in seiner Grafik - ich steh da etwas auf dem Schlauch

linar

Mein Samstag Radio
Lou Paquette hoere ich immer gerne.
May 5 - This week we discuss the situation in Bolivia and look closely at the Crude Oil charts and the Silver monthly chart. Please don't forget to click the pip that says "Lou's Charts" and listen to Lou explain what is going on..

http://www.howestreet.com/gold…/mediaplayer?audio_id=306

Zitat

Original von Edel Man

Das mit dem Einfluß auf die PM ist ein herrlicher Jux,der schon nicht mehr stimmt:
Eldo ist da,und Gold (und zumindest mein Depot :]) steigt weiter.

Grüsse

Also ich vermute, Eldo ist immer noch in den Ferien, er gibt es nur nicht zu.

Gruss

Peter Schiff
May 6, 2006

What a week! Gold prices soared to their highest levels in 26 years, and the dollar collapse verses just about every other currency on the planet. Despite the fanfare, the Dow Jones dropped below 17 ounces of gold, off 18% thus far this year. The break outs in gold and silver and simultaneous break-downs in bonds and the dollar indicate trouble on the horizon.

For years gold languished in obscurity as investors instead placed their faith in the wisdom, independence, and integrity of central bankers. That misplaced confidence will soon shatter and investors will once again embrace gold, as they discover nothing more than politicians with printing presses lurking behind the curtains.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff050606.html

Der USD Index geht in Richtung 81 in den naechsten Monaten glaubt auch Lou Paquette.

1.34 Dollar/Euro leicht moeglich.
Der Kanada Dollar gefaellt mir am besten.

Mahendra hatte einen Tiefenrausch und die Welle hat ihn voll erwischt.
Wahrscheinlich hat er sie nie gesehen.

Vanescent

Bald wieder am 19 Juni fuer drei Monate.
Unter anderen auch BC in Canada und Idaho.
Muss dort wieder hin, schaun ob Gold und Silber noch da ist.