Ist Thai tatsächlich schon weg ?
Gibt es unter den Goldseiten-Mitgliedern jemanden, der uns weiter mit den GATA-Berichten versorgen könnte?
Oder müssen wir nun ein paar Monate im Dunklen leben [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gifs-paradies.de/smilies132/00000563.gif]
Das hat gerade noch gefehlt,welcher Börsenbrief wars,der Aktionär??
Börse Stuttgart-News: EUWAX Trends am Morgen
EUWAX Trends am Morgen vom Donnerstag, 17. Juni 2004
Ruhig startete an diesem Morgen der Deutsche Aktienindex in den neuen Handelstag. Dabei mangelte es bislang ein wenig an Impulsen, da die Vorgaben aus den USA und aus Asien heute uneinheitlich waren. Das kann sich jedoch bis zum Nachmittag ändern, denn dann werden die Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenhilfe sowie die US-Frühindikatoren verkündet. Vor diesem Hintergrund steigt der Dax im frühen Vormittagshandel zunächst um gut 10 Punkte auf 4013 Zähler. Ähnlich ruhig wie im Dax gestaltet sich vorerst auch der Handel an der Euwax. Da sich der Dax bislang auch kaum bewegt hat, hat sich an der Euwax bislang noch kein Anlagetrend herausgebildet.
Wegen einer Empfehlung in einem Börsen-Newsletter sind heute Knock-out-Calls auf Silber stark gefragt. Die Redakteure sehen vor allem charttechnische Gründe für einen Einstieg ins Silber, nachdem das Metall nach einer Korrektur von 8,5 Dollar auf seinen mittelfristigen Aufwärtstrend bei 5,50 Dollar aufgesetzt hatte. Nun sei kurzfristig ein Anstieg des Silber auf bis zu 6,30 Dollar wahrscheinlich, so die Redakteure. Charttechnisch ebenfalls sehr viel besser dürfte nun der Ölkonzern Royal Dutch Shell aussehen. Die Aktie, die in den vergangenen drei Tagen gut fünf Prozent an Wert gestiegen ist notiert nun auf dem höchsten Stand seit Anfang 2003. Der Grund für den jüngsten Kursanstieg liegt in der Ankündigung des Unternehmens durch die Einführung neuer Corporate-Governance-Richtlinien verloren gegangenes Anlegervertrauen zurück zu erobern. Entsprechend sind heute Knock-out-Calls auf den Öl-Multi gefragt.
Quelle: boerse-stuttgart AG / Bitte beachten Sie die Nutzungsbedingungen (http://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/AGB.htm) der boerse-stuttgart AG.
Für den Inhalt der Kolumne ist allein boerse-stuttgart AG verantwortlich. Die Beiträge sind keine Aufforderung zum Kauf und Verkauf von Wertpapieren oder anderen Vermögenswerten.
Kleiner Tipp an alle!
Kolumne von M.Faber bei asia-economy,auf der Hauptseite unter Kolumne
Grüsse
Kalle
Kaum ist Thai im Urlaub, schon geht Silber ab wie ein Zäpfchen!!!!!!!!!!!
hoffentlich löst es sich auch nicht auf wie ein Zäpfchen
YOYO du sollst Silber auch nicht einführen,
sondern besser im Keller bunkern!!
18.06.2004 13:20:41 Silver fix higher, Europe gold firms
* Silver fixed higher at 595.00 cents an ounce from
previous fixing at 575.50 cents. Spot market moves up with gold
to $5.97/6.00 by 1110 GMT from $5.91/5.94 quoted in New York
late on Thursday.
* Silver forward rates on Reuters page indicated at
1.178, 1.200, 1.220 and 1.260 for one, three, six and 12 months
repsectively.
* Gold rises to $391.90/392.65 per troy ounce by
1110 GMT, from $388.75/389.50 last quoted in New York.
* Bullion higher as pressure from a buoyant dollar is
offset by investor worries about inflation and by safe-haven
buying after Thursday's deadly car bombing in Iraq.
Platinum up on further Asian-led consumer buying to
$800.00/805.00 from $791.00/796.00 last quoted in New York.
* Palladium at $223.00/228.00, up from
$222.00/227.00 previously.
((For related news and prices, click on the codes in
brackets:
Spot Platinum/
gold/silver palladium
Gold lease Comex gold <0#GC:>
rates futures
Europe/Asia
prices
RELATED NEWS AND OTHER TOPICS
Precious metals [GOL] All metals news [MTL]
....da wird doch heute nicht die 6Dollar-rule beim Gold fallen wollen?! 
Schön wärs ja 
Aber im Ernst,jetzt ,als Thai,seinen Urlaub angetreten hat,und die Zinsspirale in den USA sich anfängt nach oben zu drehen,wie solls jetzt hier weitergehen?
Vielleicht sollten wir uns hier zunächst mit LINKS,über gute Foren,über Gold und Silber über Wasser halten.Dazu könnte man auch eine Linksammlung verfassen,da die meisten der postings von Thai,ja auch mit LINKS versehen sind,was meint ihr dazu.Vielleicht auch ab und zu mal ein tolles Bild,hier eingestellt,durch unsern USER goch.
Grüsse
Kalle
THE FED AND THE GOLD PRICE
By Kenneth J. Gerbino Printer Friendly Version
June 18, 2004
In the last five months $213 billion new dollars have been added to the U.S money supply (M2). Amazingly, no one in the mainstream financial community questions this.
Looking over some past Federal Reserve archives one finds that $213 billion was all the money in circulation in 1962. Currently it is $6.2 trillion. All the material items of wealth in this country (buildings, roads, cars, aircraft carriers, toasters, TV sets etc.) were created in the 173 years leading up to 1962 with that $213 billion circulating. Have we come close to that real wealth creation in the last five months? This is a huge wake up call that something is not right. This excessive money creation, as history attests, will bring along an enduring inflation created by the same people pledged to control it.
The Fed has never been able to stop inflation. Higher interest rates do not stop inflation. This is a false economic theory. There are no statistics to prove higher rates stop inflation. Stopping inflation means if you have a 3% increase in consumer prices, you will have a 3% decrease soon thereafter. That is stopping inflation. If you have a fever at 103, well above the normal 98.6 and you go to your doctor to stop the fever, you expect him to get you back to 98.6. In the world of economics we have accepted prices to go up and if the prices just stay steady at that new price level we are suppose to be happy. That is the same thing as your doctor telling you, no problem you are steady at 103 have a nice day. Inflation builds on itself month after month year after year. It is like the economy has built up a 150 degrees temperature.
Also, in past inflationary periods the Fed has raised interest rates for years and all during those years the CPI continued to go higher and higher. Higher interest rates not only cannot reverse (stop) inflation they cannot hold it in check. Prices are rising from money that has been in the system and has been churning around from years before. Wall Street professionals who do not understand this concept will be vulnerable to the future changes that will occur as inflation distorts our economy and markets once again and for all the same reasons.
The Fed’s purpose is two-fold, to create money and be the lender of last resort to the government when those multi-billion dollar deficits show up and to be the protector of the U.S. banking system. No one will argue that if the banks go under we are all in a lot of trouble, so the Fed over the decades has enjoyed a reputation that has led the country and the politicians to believe one can print a lot of money forever with manageable consequences. This is true for small-scale stuff, but when you are talking about trillions of dollars it is obvious to some of us that we are now past the point of no return.
The Fed also controls interest rates. In a country that espouses free market economics, this aspect of their daily activities is hard to comprehend. There is nothing more important in a free market economy than to allow money and the cost of money - interest rates - to be left alone and to allow the daily interaction of millions of people and tens of thousands of institutions and millions of transactions to function without interventions and manipulations. The fact that any institution is intervening in any marketplace to the tune of tens of billions of dollars, sometimes on a daily basis, is something to fear.
These activities by the Fed will be the eventual driving force behind excessive inflation, a depreciating currency and a much higher price of gold. The Fed and other foreign central banks are following policies that are contrary to basic economic truths, classical economic thought and just plain common sense.
My late friend, Nobel laureate (economics), F.A. Hayek told me years ago when I visited him in Germany that decades before he had a discussion with the renowned economist John Maynard Keynes, where Keynes told him that he (Keynes) had made a terrible mistake and was prepared to write an important piece to disavow deficit spending and hence paper money creation. But two weeks later Keynes died. World governments have all embraced Keynes’ mixed up theories because it gave them a convenient solution to cover up their economic mismanagement. Because of this, huge debts and huge piles of paper money have been fostered on populations creating what is now an economic tidal wave that is now on the horizon.
As inflation is always the result of excessive expansions of money in a society, we should simply do the math. Huge money increases equal huge producer and consumer price increases eventually. There is no doubt about the money supply increases, so there should be no doubt about a strong and prolonged inflation that has obviously started. This is all bullish for gold. For other articles on gold and the economy please visit the commentary section of our website at http://www.kengerbino.com
Kenneth J. Gerbino
*****
Kenneth J. Gerbino & Company
Investment Management
9595 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 303
Beverly Hills, California 90212
Telephone (310) 550-6304
Fax (310) 550-0814
E-Mail: kjgco@att.net
Website: http://www.kengerbino.com
ftd.de, Fr, 18.6.2004, 16:25
US-Handelsbilanzdefizit erklimmt Rekordhoch
Das Loch in der US-Außenhandelsbilanz wird immer größer. Das neue Rekordhoch im ersten Quartal nährte die Befürchtungen vor den wirtschaftlichen Folgen und belastete den Dollarkurs.
Der Fehlbetrag sei auf rund 144,9 Mrd. $ von revidiert 127,0 Mrd. $ im Schlussquartal 2003 gestiegen, teilte das US-Handelsministerium am Freitag in Washington mit. Die Einfuhren legten dabei deutlich stärker zu als die Ausfuhren. Analysten hatten für das erste Quartal im Schnitt mit einem geringeren Defizit gerechnet. Die Leistungsbilanz umfasst alle Handelstätigkeiten der USA mit dem Ausland.
Der Dollar reagierte auf die Daten mit Kursverlusten zum Euro. Die Gemeinschaftswährung kletterte im New Yorker Handel auf ein Tageshoch von knapp unter 1,21 $. "Die Zahlen haben den Anlegern wieder die Augen dafür geöffnet, wie bedenklich die Defizitsituation in den USA ist", sagte ein Händler. "Das nährt natürlich die Sorge vor den wirtschaftlichen Folgen, denn ein Ende des Defizitwachstums ist ja nicht in Sicht."
Dollar-Abwertung droht
Das hohe US-Leistungsbilanzdefizit gilt als einer der Hauptgründe für die Dollar-Schwäche der vergangenen Monate, da die USA zur Finanzierung des wachsenden Fehlbetrags immer mehr ausländisches Kapital benötigen. Bleibt dieses aus, droht eine massive Abwertung der US-Währung.
Ein Großteil dieses ausländischen Kapitals stammt von asiatischen Notenbanken, die im Rahmen von Interventionen zur Schwächung ihrer jeweiligen Landeswährungen Dollar-Anlagen kaufen. Sie wollen damit ihre Exportwirtschaft unterstützen. Das Volumen derartiger offizieller Käufe stieg im ersten Vierteljahr nach Angaben des Handelsministeriums auf 125,2 Mrd. $ nach 83,7 Mrd. $ im Vorquartal.
-------------------
Kalle,
was meinst Du mit der Linksammlung?
Etwas verspätet... aber eher habe ich keine Zeit gehabt...
Die COT Zahlen für Silber vom 14.06.2004
Ja himmelherrgott sacklzement.......seid ihr zu unbedarft um ohne Guru den gata -Käse zu finden.
Also gold-eagle .com und mienweb und minesite und so fort führen dahin.
Sogar hier auf goldseiten .de ist eine Linksammlung.
Nur Lemetropole ist glaube ich kostenplichtig.
Kauft gute Minen ,welche Dividenden zahlen und freut euch des Lebens.
Die neuen Zahlen sind da....
Der COT GOLD REPORT vom 18.06.2004
...und gleich noch die silbernen .....
Die COT Zahlen für Silber vom 18.06.2004
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Gold Leaving The Station & Specs/Investors Falling Behind
Bill Murphy
June 18 - Gold $394.90 up $6.20 – Silver $5.97 up 7 cents
Two qualities are indispensable: first, an intellect that, even in the darkest hour, retains some glimmerings of the inner light which leads to truth; and second, the courage to follow this faint light wherever it may lead. ..Carl von Clausewitz
(Prussian military philosopher 1780-1831)
GO GATA!!!
It is a rare day lately when the MIDAS gold market commentary cannot be written after the first hour of Comex trading. Rarely does anything change for the gold good in this managed market. The highs are almost always made within the first hour. Gold is then either held at those highs, any new highs are modest at best, or it is sold off.
OOPS, that was my exact opening commentary in yesterday’s MIDAS. Oh well, as is normally the case on almost all gold up days, it fits perfectly for today too. I can’t stand the buggers that keep capping the price. The Deputy Chairman of the Russian central bank, Oleg Mozhayskov, can see the gold market is rigged and said so in front of those in the gold industry who attended the LBMA conference in Moscow in early June. He even had the audacity to mention GATA in public company and say we were right. We are talking about a G-8 central banker here! That is astounding and monumental for GATA's credibility!! What is the matter with the morons in the mainstream western gold industry? What a bunch of powder puff patsies!
Gold rose $6 and change (virtually limit up as far as the $6 Rule is concerned) in the first minutes of trading and did so with euro DOWN 30. Gold went completely on its own, which is a WONDERFUL development. The euro only rallied when the US current account number was reported at 8:30 EDT and it was worse than expected. The euro then took off, eventually closing .76 higher at 121.21, while the dollar fell .52 to 89.43. The effect on gold? Zip. Gold actually SOLD OFF slightly by day’s end even as the euro rose an entire point.
The fact that gold rallied so strongly without outside market support is marvelous news. It tells me there is a VERY strong hand buyer out there who wants gold come hell or high water. I have heard a couple of extraneous comments about gold that might fit together. The first is from one of the most highly regarded gold traders on the floor. He told my source that he smells somebody dumping a large hoard of dollars to buy gold. Perhaps it is the Arabs. My STALKER source says STALKER number 2 is active and he believes the business is coming out of Asia, perhaps even Malaysia, in preparation for the Dinar's inauguration later this year. This is all speculation, however, it makes sense.
What we do know is somebody went after physical gold with a vengeance this morning, sending gold soaring until the crooks showed up like they always do.
What is also exciting is gold is on the move with many specs and investors on the sideline. The Café Sentiment Indicator is a 3 or 4 and the Comex open interest is at its lowest levels in about a year or so at 223,015. It only went up 2759 contracts yesterday. In years gone by we would get a 77,000 spec open interest increase over a period of many weeks and gold would only rise $10.
Even The Gold Cartel and other commercials are exiting the scene. The COT revealed they got out of 3,522 longs and 7,190 shorts, which is why the open interest has contracted.
Reg Howe, Bob Landis and I were to speak in front of a group of money managers in Boston next week. Collectively, they manage over $100 billion in funds. A month ago the room was packed to hear about the dollar from Dave Lewis. Our meeting was cancelled on Wednesday due to lack of interest. Either that, or the attendees were to scared to be in a room with a few people who are not afraid of confronting the establishment.
Anyway, gold is close to popping through its 200-day moving average and taking out $400. We are only a hop, skip and a jump away.
On a positive note, gold has closed on the firm side two days in a row, on its highs yesterday and not far off today.
One fine looking gold chart:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/84
Silver had trouble holding $6, however, like gold, it was firm all day long, selling off modestly on the close. Like gold, the silver open interest is very low. Yesterday on its surge, the open interest only rose 138 contracts to 86,922.
Still room for 88,000 spec longs to take gold through $430 and 36,000 spec longs to take silver back above $8.50.
Oil closed up 19 cents to $39 per barrel.
The John Brimelow Report
Gifts from the Middle East?
Friday, June 18, 2004
Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $3.03, PM $0.11, with world gold at $387.90 and $392.20. Below, and well below, legal import level. India reacted with more that the usual unenthusiasm to abrupt jumps in the world gold price ($9 up this afternoon on the previous morning.) The rupee exacerbated the response by falling to a 5 1/2 month low against the dollar, with Indian sentiment damaged by noises the new Government is making about higher taxation. The discreet qualities of gold are likely to be increasingly valued by affluent Indians in the future, a reverse of what was generally expected before the election.
Prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange have slipped to a narrow (10-20c) discount this morning.
TOCOM responded to finding world gold $4 higher on the opening with no excitement. Volume did rise 21% but only to equal a wretched 14,911 Comex lots, while open interest was static (+89 Comex lots). The active contract was up 5 yen, but world gold slipped $1.65 from the NY close. There appears to be no Japanese initiative in gold at present. (NY traded yesterday 41,981 contracts; open interest rose 2,759 lots.)
Obviously, however, someone is supplying initiative, with the perennially bearish Barclays commentator complaining of yesterday:
"Aggressive buying catapulted the prices for gold, silver and platinum higher yesterday…gold is now softening…However the market will be wary of selling the market aggressively with the potential for another burst of buying this afternoon. In the event, after a $2 lull in the Asian morning, powerful buying started quite early in the European day. TheBulliondesk had noticed a big surge in traffic by 8am NY time, by which point the price was already up $3.70 at $392. And of course it has continued since, with estimated Comex volume standing at 52,000 by 1pm, far ahead of yesterday.
This looks like a conscious effort by a large capital pool to overcome the defence offered so freely below the key technical levels in the mid $390s. The timing and apparent preference for the physical market suggest the possibility on Middle Eastern orientation. Assuming the leaders of this effort are reasonably well informed, this fight will presumably resume next week.
In the meantime, as weekend reading, I commend the latest essay by The eXile correspondent War Nerd concerning the last but one outbreak of terrorism in Saudi Arabia:
"But it doesn't look to me like these Saudi terrorists were looking to die… It reads to me more like terrorist collusion with the local cops -- either that or the cops and soldiers of the Saudi government are so totally intimidated they're not a factor any more.
And that means Saudi Arabia probably isn't going to last much longer. When the government troops won't leave their barracks, when the cops run every time the rebels fire a shot...well, church is about out. Think Tehran when the Shah fell, or Cambodia in '75… this didn't happen overnight. It's been building up as long as I can remember. And it's going to have to get worse before it improves. I'm going to be writing a lot of columns with "Arabia" in the title this year.
http://www.exile.ru/192/war_nerd.html
JB
CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH
The US stock market continues to meander. The DOW finished up 38.89 at 10,416, while the DOG gained 3 to 1987.
June 18 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. current account deficit widened to a record $144.9 billion in the first quarter as Americans bought more foreign-made goods, a government report showed.
The deficit, the broadest measure of trade because it includes investments, follows a $127 billion gap in the previous three months, the Commerce Department said in Washington. The gap is equivalent to 5.1 percent of the nation's $11.5 trillion economy, matching the record reached a year earlier. –END-
GATA’s Mike Bolser:
Hi Bill:
The Federal Reserve today added $7 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements, an action that moved the repo pool up to $38.88 Billion and kept the pool's ma rising in a linear mode. The DOW's 30-day ma has clearly turned upward and in my opinion will regain a strong upward trajectory as the Fed announces its rates decision next week. Greenspan's purposeful ambiguity has fully obfuscated the picture of how large the rise will be at this point. No one knows for sure so the "market" may be "surprised".
Gold is rising nicely, almost as if a giant hand had been removed form it, while the dollar is falling in concert. The $6 rule or more precisely, the never exceed the first standard deviation rule is always in effect. The viscous counter attack started Monday was needed by the Fed since they were "surprised" by the huge PPI numbers and had to sequester them...again. With such a hard attack on gold we can guess that the PPI numbers were equally as bad because the Fed was forced to change their careful gold retreat plan. Expect more brainless Wall Street and CNBC propaganda attempting to convince us that bad is good.
During any retreat the enemy can deliver sever damage if they set careful ambushes. We are just exiting one of those ambushes but we must always be wary of another trap.
Mike
Chuck checks in for the LATE EDITION:
So far this last decline and bottoming process is echoing the one in 2002. Take a look. If so, we should move up to about 225 on the HUI followed by one more setback and then move up in earnest. It is a pretty remarkable similarity including the pessimism and disbelief although I think it is much higher this time.
We are obviously ready for a financial "event" here. Even this week the market lifted each day in the last half hour while the golds sold off each day at that time.
GSS was interesting obviously some of the massive shorts got scared but was not ready for the move. But it sets up a break out target for it, perhaps when there is some resolution of the IAM takeover. The unconcern in the stock market is matched by the degree of fear in the gold market. Fascinating!
Chuck
Commentary from a Café favorite, The King Report:
Bill Gross (Pimco) the world’s largest bond manager in yesterday’s FT: "Too much debt, geopolitical risk and several bubbles have created a very unstable environment which can turn any minute. More than any point in the past 20 or 30 years, there's potential for a reversal. We have become a levered global economy, specifically in Japan and the US. With all this consumer debt, business debt, government debt, smaller movements in interest rates have a magnified effect…"
Slate.com: "Yesterday's trade deficit figures showed that Americans continue to hurl dollars overseas in exchange for cars, oil, televisions, you name it. In theory, that's bad news, since it means the money we earn isn't stimulating domestic demand. The good news is that a lot of the dollars we export find their way back here. And while we Americans shrewdly use our greenbacks to get a lower price on things we need or desire like DVD players, many foreigners are using the cash we send them to buy stuff that Americans don't want to buy—government bonds. What a great deal! We underpay for their great electronics; they overpay for our mediocre bonds." This is Milton Friedman’s rationale for free trade. It is great until the holders of the debt change disposition. There’s nothing like living and depending on the kindness of strangers, and foreign ones at that!
Asia, with the preponderance of global population, must export massive amounts of goods to the US and Europe to import and pay for the necessities of life, particularly food. Years ago we saw a piece of research that highlighted Asian Tigers’ necessity to export to pay their food bills. Now China, India, Indonesia (1st, 2nd & 4th most populated countries) and Vietnam have joined the mix.
The Institute for Supply Management says prices paid by manufacturers for raw materials in May are near the highest level since November 1979. ISM’s prices paid by non-manufacturing companies for raw materials soared to a record in May. Good thing inflation is under control and the core is benign.
"The average for all grades of unleaded gasoline rose 36 percent this year through the end of May, according to U.S. Department of Energy figures. Passenger car prices rose 1.1 percent in May, the biggest increase since March 2003, after falling 0.2 percent in April. Costs of light trucks rose 1.1 percent after dropping 1 percent the month before." http://www.freep.com/money/business/jobs17e_20040617.htm
Inflationary pressure is building in the pipeline. Intermediate goods prices rose 1.1% in May. Core intermediate prices rose 0.9% after rising 1.1% in April, which was the largest rise since 1/95. Core intermediate good prices are +5.1% y/y, the highest increase since when October 1995.
Crude goods prices soared 2.8% in May after rising 3% in April. Core crude goods prices fell 3.8% in May but are still +22% y/y.
Ed Hyman’s (ISI) latest report is full of charts and details that show the economy might have peaked a month or so ago and inflationary pressure is building. That’s our view and prognostication. We must now watch the data and see if the stagflation keeps intensifying as Easy Al replays the ‘70s.
Derek VanArtsdalen from San Antonio:
Good morning, Bill—
Here's a quick update for your readers on the technical side of the gold/silver picture. So far, gold is tracking almost tick for tick with the U.S. dollar, although that may well change at some point for reasons you've discussed many times in "Midas." As you've said, gold will likely begin outperforming all fiat currencies on the planet and seems to be in the early stages of preparing for that.
In the meantime, no one can argue that the dollar's action has pretty well dictated what gold has done in the last few years. Oil, of course, is now also heavily involved in the equation. So, let's take a look at the charts...
First, here's a 3-year chart of the U.S. greenback:
For the most part, this chart is self-explanatory. It doesn't take a T/A genius to figure out where the dollar is probably headed: lower. Its recent strength was enough to challenge the topside of the channel (red circle), but that strength appears to be giving way to the natural forces of downside pressure. With Sir Alan pumping out dollars like there's no tomorrow, the U.S. buck is hardly worth the paper it's printed on. Anything can happen, of course, but if I were a dollar bull I sure as hell wouldn't take any comfort in the chart above. The MACD histogram is starting to contract once again, and you can clearly see what has happened each and every time it's done that. In short, look out below...
Here's the oil chart:
I've read a few articles recently whose writers predict an imminent fall in oil prices to something below $25 per barrel. If oil is indeed destined for sub-$25, there's nothing on this chart to suggest it. Some folks are looking at the price action over the last several months and anticipating the completion of the right shoulder on a head-and-shoulders formation (small green circle). However, chart patterns don't always produce the expected result, as evidenced by the much larger completed head-and-shoulders formation within the large green circle. Even though such patterns are supposed to be extremely bearish, there's no law that says they must be. As you can see, the larger head-and-shoulders pattern, which is technically about as perfect as they come, didn't result in anything except much higher prices.
So, I wouldn't put much faith in the smaller one that's forming now. In fact, the internal indicators are growing stronger, not weaker (red lines). As several writers have pointed out, we're only one major terrorist event from plus-$50/barrel oil. Good luck on re-election, Mr. Bush...
Now let's look at the price of gold itself:
I worked up this chart yesterday but didn't have it ready in time for "Midas," but you can see that we were closing in on the apex of a symmetrical triangle, which means that the price was ready to break out one way or the other. If I had gotten this stuff in on time, I would have predicted that the price would break up and out. Well, it's about 9:15 a.m. Eastern Time, and the gold price on Kitco is up about six dollars. So the breakout is a decisive one.
The measured move from this chart puts the next price objective at about $452. After that, I think $486 is obtainable in the next few months and possibly $500 by year's end. As you know, Jim Sinclair is staking his reputation on $480 gold on or before August 15th. I wouldn't want to bet against him...
Here's a 3-year gold chart for the bigger picture:
When you see things from this view, you've got to wonder what all the panic is about, eh? Sure, a $50+ price correction is painful, no doubt about it. But in the grand scheme of things gold's near-term prospects appear promising. There's nothing confusing about this chart, and I for one believe that the pronouncements of gold's death have been greatly exaggerated...
Finally, here's a price chart for silver:
The most striking thing about this six-month silver chart is the presence of the huge gaps down (two purple circles). The first one left a void around $7.80, and anyone who thinks it won't be filled is crazy. Sooner or later it will, and my bet is it'll be sooner rather than later.
Yesterday's price action broke severely up and out of the 10-week downtrend (red line) as you can see by the black price marker circled in green. Things are obviously heating up this morning in follow-through action. Also note on the chart that the internal indicators (circled in red and blue) are beginning to look quite healthy. Anyone shorting silver now is a real gunslinger and could well get taken to the cleaners in the weeks ahead...
That's about it, Bill. Hope your subscribers find these charts helpful in determining which way to place their bets. In closing, I'm including a copy of Al Thomas' words from an e-mail he sent to his subscribers this week. It contains the simplest explanation I've seen yet about the scam of fiat money.
In fact, you'd almost need a Federal Reserve board member assisting you in order to misunderstand what Al is saying. I feel it's only fair to mention Al's website is
located at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com
Here's Al's beautiful explanation of what's happening to our money even
as I write.
THE ALCHEMIST
BY AL THOMAS
Fake Money
Reach in your pocket and take out that big roll of bills. Depending on how many of them you have you feel pretty good. BUT did you know they are not worth the paper they are printed on? Huh? Let me explain.
Yes, those bills are legal tender because those guys in Washington passed a law stating they must be accepted for payment. They are Federal Reserve Notes and it states right on the bill, "This is legal tender for all debts, public and private ". That is OK, but if you go to the U.S. Mint will they redeem it in gold or silver? Years ago they did, but not since 1971.
Al most everyone has bought stock in a company. The company issues shares and each share represents a portion of the ownership in that company. It is against the best interests of the stockholders to issue additional shares unless something of equal value is added. Why?
Let ’s keep it very simple. Suppose the company is worth $100,000 and it has issued 100,000 shares of stock. The stock has a book value of $1.00 per share. If the officers of the company decide to issue another 100,000 shares to hire security guards (like soldiers), lease (not buy) an airplane, increase the accounting staff (these folks do not increase production) and pay the executives more (who will produce the same amount as they are now) you will notice that all these expenses do not add to the company ’s profits. The value of all shares is now 50 cents per share because the value of the company has remained the same. $100,000 divided by 200,000 shares is 50 cents per share.
What has all that to do with your money? You have seen in the paper that the Federal Reserve Bank (it is neither Federal nor maintains a reserve) has had an auction for Treasury Bills. Sir Al an Greenspan has authorized the printing of those T-Bills. With just paper and ink he has created billions of dollars of debt for the government. And who is the government? YOU. Each time the Fed turns on the printing presses to sell government bonds it effectively dilutes the value of the money you have. That is called inflation. Unless the productivity rate of the country increases by a like amount it devalues your
currency.
Should you care? What it amounts to is everything will cost more because your money represents less. This is monetary inflation and has nothing to do with the supply of goods. Yet some day (who knows when) those bonds will have to be redeemed. The idea of the central government is to keep watering down the money so they can pay off the debt with cheaper and cheaper dollars. This is a method of creating money instead of raising taxes yet you are paying for it.
Throughout history there have been scores of private and government banks that have issued fake (fiat) money and in every case they have failed and the holders of the fake money have lost. Will that happen this time? I would not bet against it.
-END-
Regards,
Derek
I’ve Seen This Movie Too
I sat with my boss in a sweltering but fashionable downtown eatery in Toronto in mid August 1987 having lunch – with two chaps who were the book runners for my number one client, a major bullion bank and at the time the biggest derivatives dealer in the word. One of them was a Polish immigrant, a Ph.D. in mathematics who had been recruited from then DOW 30 constituent Honeywell. While he spoke in slightly broken English, this guy was not only a genius but had represented Canada as an Olympian as a sailor. These were indeed ‘heady times’. The DOW had just broken the magical 2000 level and 5 year mortgage money was available at approximately 10% in Canada if you were on friendly terms with your local bank manager. In those days 10% money intuitively made most business deals work. Over a nice bottle of wine talk quickly turned to ‘the markets’, interest rate in particular and in a larger sense the general equity markets.
It was after a couple of ‘jars’ of wine and some banter about the equity markets that our Ph.D. friend, in his broken English informed us, "there are going to be days when the [stock] market [DOW] goes down 4 or 5 hundred points". The other three of us sitting at the table stared at him in disbelief laughing at him like he was full of crap. Given that that the largest one day movement in the DOW Jones to that point in time was about 28 points we asked him what his reasoning was for such a bold prediction. His answer was [again in broken English], "the incorrect assumptions in portfolio insurance". So, the three others of us are starting to feel our wine a little bit and we question our Ph.D. friend a little bit further. We asked him pointedly just what it was that ‘was wrong’ with the assumptions in portfolio insurance? His reply, "Simple, portfolio insurance constitutes computer generated equity trades. The more the markets move in a given direction, the more the computers will exacerbate the move in the same direction-thus the market will drop 4 or 5 hundred points easily in one day." That produced chuckles and a retort of, "By the same logic it seems the market might equally be susceptible to a 4 or 5 hundred point rise in one day?" As I’ll never forget the reply was [again in broken English], "Empirical observation I have made, things never seem to ‘crash’ up." The other three of us were dumbstruck. We asked him what made him so certain of his convictions on the equity markets? His reply, "I’ve modeled it all in my computer. It is certain to happen given the right conditions." This guy had ‘modeled’ the equity market in a computer program he created in his spare time, for fun, and determined under which circumstances it would catastrophically ‘fail’. He equated this exercise he had undertaken to a car company like FORD testing a new model in a wind tunnel for aerodynamics.
By now you must all be wondering what any of this has to do with where we are today? The answer – the analytical mind of Jim Sinclair. I wonder if Jim ever speaks with a Polish accent in broken English? Never the less I keep getting this déjà vu feeling all over again – a lot of folks who should know better have not been around the block a few times and cannot see with the clarity of Jim Sinclair. I know history tends to repeat itself [most chartists would agree], and I know I’ve seen this movie before. This should give us all reason to be deeply concerned.
Rob Kirby
SA’s gold production falls by 8,3% in Q1
South Africa’s gold production decreased by 8,3%, to 84 616,5 kg, in the first quarter of 2004, versus the same quarter in 2003, the South African Chamber of Mines said in a statement yesterday.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, total gold production fell 10,2% as the annual effect of the December holiday period and the significant fall in the rand gold price plus domestic cost pressures placed the industry under stress, the chamber said.
For South African Chamber of Mines member gold-mines, the average grades recovered fell by 7,2%, to 4,4 g/t, in the first quarter and tons processed through the mills decreased by 2,8%.
Despite the spot gold price rising 16% year-on-year, to $408/oz in the first quarter of 2004, the further 18,7% appreciation in the rand exchange rate, to R6,77 a dollar, in the same period meant that the rand price of gold fell a further 5,9%, to R88 873/kg, the chamber said.
The average increase in total production costs, excluding capital expenditure, rose by 18% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2004 as a result of a number of administered price increases, such as the 18% increase in water costs, and high price increases in other input areas, such as steel.
Chamber of Mines chief economist Roger Baxter underlined that many of these cost increases are outside of the scope of control of the mining sector.
-END-
The gold/silver shares continue to fall further behind the moves up in both gold and silver. The XAU closed at 86.03, up 1.69.
The HUI failed to close above its 50-day moving average of 191.05. It has not done so since April 13. It also could not take out its downtrend, finishing at 189.38, up 4.58.
Placer Dome’s recent exploration success in Nevada is creating a stir. Below is a map with the location of J-Pacific's projects in Nevada's Cortez Mining District. J-Pacific's current projects in the District are noteworthy particularity in light of the current market chatter concerning Placer Dome's activities at Cortez Hills and ET Blue.
j-pac cortez property map.jpg
J-Pacific closed at 46 cents Cdn, up 6 cents or 15% on the day.
Star of the week was Samex which popped a bit more than 60%, closing at 83 cents, up 10 cents on heavy volume. Congrats to geologist Rob Kell who has worked his butt off coming up with the goods.
Over the past couple of weeks I have brought to your attention from different sources that two North American gold refiners were reporting unusually firm premiums. Comex, thanks to the price managers, had gone disconnect with the physical market, the real gold market. The market became so firm the past few days, The Gold Cartel could only cap the price rise, not hold it back.
With the cash market this strong and the specs on the sideline in a relative sense, yet poised to enter the buy side, the cabal troops are going to have a heckuva time keeping gold from taking off. With the geopolitical situation a horror show at the moment, one which is likely to worsen further, gold is likely to rise faster and go further than most market players can envision at the moment.
GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
MIDAS
Appendix
California files major suit against Enron over energy price manipulation
(17/06/2004)
LOS ANGELES (AFP) The US state of California sued collapsed energy giant Enron, accusing it of massive market manipulation and fraud during a series of crippling power outages in 2000 and 2001.
The suit, filed by California's top legal official, Attorney General Bill Lockyer, seeks restitution, damages and the return of unjust profits that he said could total "hundreds of millions of dollars."
The complaint was filed in Alameda County Superior Court, near San Francisco, on behalf of the people of golden state that almost ground to a halt amid a series of rolling power shortages during the crisis.
"At the same time this corrupt enterprise successfully lobbied its friends in the federal government to block price caps and blame California, it was robbing our businesses and consumers blind," Lockyer said.
"Enron was the architect of a rip-off scheme that bled billions of dollars from our state's economy. They may be bankrupt, but we will hold them accountable. Grandma Millie is California. I am her lawyer, and she seeks
justice," he said.
The suit came less than three weeks after a series of recorded telephone conversation between Enron traders showed that the company deliberately starved the most populous US state of power in order to hike energy prices.
"They're (expletive) taking all the money back from you guys? All the money you guys stole from those poor grandmothers in California?" asked one laughing Enron trader on the tapes obtained from the US Justice Department.
"Yeah, grandma Millie, man," said another. "Yeah, now she wants her (expletive) money back for all the power you've charged right up, jammed right up her ass for (expletive) 250 dollars a megawatt-hour."
The apparent revelation of deliberate market manipulation at California's expense has national significance as top Enron official Kenneth Lay is a friend of President George W. Bush, who said during the crisis that he would not cap California's skyrocketing energy prices.
Lockyer's suit asks the court to fine Enron 25,000 dollars for each alleged commodities fraud violation and 2,500 dollars for each alleged violation of the state's Unfair Competition Law.
The suit is the latest step in a three-year-old investigation into the power crisis that lumbered California with massive energy bills that significantly
deepened its financial crisis.
"While the state reeled from the combined impact of sky-high power prices, supply shortages and rolling blackouts, the Enron defendants enjoyed massive, unprecedented profits, and extracted millions of dollars in ill-gotten gains from utilities and their customers," the suit said.
©AFP
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Also by Bill Murphy
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Hallo Leute,
leider habe ich bereits mein Pulver vershossen, aber ich bin mir sicher dass der eine oder andere noch nicht das Testabo von Lemetropolecafe hatte.
Es ist völlig unverbindlich, und wir sind hier im Board mal wieder für 2 Wochen (bis Thaiguru wiederkommt) versorgt.
Grüsse,
Silversurfer
