Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    August 20 - Gold $412.90 up $6.30 – Silver $6.85 up 5 cents


    May THE FORCE Be With Us


    "THERE IS NO EXTERNAL POWER ON EARTH OR THE UNIVERSE THAT CAN BRING DOWN THE GOLD AND SILVER PRICES. DESTINY HAS BEEN WRITTEN AND I AM JUST PREDICTING IT AS IT IS." Mahendra late last week with gold around $395


    GO GATA!!!!!


    When I awoke this morning, gold was due $1.70 lower even though oil was well over $49 per barrel. The supposed culprit was a stronger dollar – the euro was fading fast in London for some mysterious unknown reason. Anecdotally, it seems to me whenever our stock market (it was due lower) could be under severe pressure (in this case due to the soaring price of oil), the dollar tends to strengthen rather remarkably. Today was no exception.


    However, The Working Group on Financial Markets, has a short-term problem when it comes to gold. The gold physical market is on fire at the same time the funds are entering the fray in a substantial way. We know there is plenty of spec buying power out there due to the relatively low Comex open interest - as compared to what it has gone to over the past year. It is especially important to appreciate the fact that it is not only funds entering the long side of the paper market. You will recall our Stalker source telling us THE STALKER is out there buying $1 billion worth of physical bullion and a smaller fund was going to step up to the plate if gold showed it was on the move, mostly likely that meant taking out $405, which it did yesterday. Then, there is the Arab buying.


    It is not that often when extremely valuable information comes my way and I am fortunate to be able to pass it on you. This past Monday was one of those days and is THE KEY to what gold did this week. For your review, from MIDAS on August 16:


    A lot to report to you from the physical market front and add to John Brimelow’s superb input. London, as you might recall, was looking for gold to start its move the last two weeks of August. So far, so good. Our British dealer source checked in today and is very upbeat. NEW buying has surfaced out of Saudi Arabia and the Far East, notably Hong Kong (heavy buying). The feeling from England is that if gold closes above $405, it will shoot up to $428/$430 very quickly. Our London source is looking for $456 by the end of the year and $500 in the first quarter to second quarter of next year.


    Also heard from a different source that THE STALKER is back in the market, after a sustained absence, and is going to buy 1 BILLION worth of BULLION. Meanwhile, a smaller stalker may also enter the fray, to the tune of 100 million to 1 billion. We don’t know the amount. What we do know is they are only going to buy strength, or when gold is "jumping." We take that to mean it has to take out $405 first.


    Word to me this afternoon is that Morgan Stanley was a monster buyer today and it is related to new fund buying in the cash market. This fits in perfectly with the information brought to your attention from my STALKER and London bullion dealer sources. This is good, very good!


    ***


    What a week! It seems a few very consistent gold trading patterns were broken. Today, for example, gold made new highs for the session over and over again. No more of this surge early, and then cap, cap, cap. Yesterday, the HUI surged while the general stock market was under pressure. In times past a weaker stock market has had a tendency to affect the gold shares. And as RL noted earlier, "the old cabal trick of intervening to support the dollar and bashing gold on the strong dollar pretext - that tired routine - isn't working today." Finally, gold closed higher on a Friday for the FOURTH week in a row.


    The best news of the day was to see gold take off, even as the dollar rose a good bit, closing at 88.23, up .41. The euro was hit fairly hard, dropping .60 to 123.04.


    As veteran Café members well know, gold rallying without dollar help has been a theme of mine for some time, even as late as last Tuesday’s MIDAS – "There is no reason gold shouldn’t rally $100 per ounce with the dollar doing nothing." Those out there who say gold is only about the dollar have it wrong. The key to the price is whether physical market buying can overpower a corrupt price-capping Gold Cartel. The cabal’s best laid plans went awry today. I can’t recall gold running this amount with the dollar so much on the upside.


    You have to think the stunning Argentine central bank gold buying news has to be a HUGE plus too. As covered in last night’s MIDAS, this one seminal event could produce a sea change of thinking by other central banks. Incredibly, it was hardly mentioned anywhere by the mainstream gold world or financial market media. It’s bad enough the mainstream media hates gold, yet when the establishment gold world won’t jump up and down about this significant happening, it is OUTRAGEOUS!


    The World Gold Council should be disbanded by the end of this year for the good of gold shareholders everywhere!
    The gold open interest rose another 4747 contracts to 238,015. This represents tech funds and pricing due to physical market buyers taking on the despicable Gold Cartel, who have been desperately doing what they can to keep the price of gold from exploding. THIS could not be more clear as we know who the sellers were this past week.


    Not everything has changed when it comes to the gold market. While the cabal was in full scale retreat today, they still managed to hold the line with the $6 RULE! When that tiresome rule is obliterated, we might have a good feeling the bad guys are going down for the count.


    Next Thursday is option expiry. Some of the outstanding call gold call option positions of note:


    *405 – 5374
    *410 – 2181
    *420 – 10,000
    *430 – 8771


    Silver faded late for the second day in a row, putting in its second tired performance in as many trading sessions. With the cabal having serious trouble with gold, they seemed to have shifted some focus on keeping silver from taking out $7. My floor sources, who are bullish, were not perturbed the silver sell-off as long as it held $6.83, basis Sep, and it did.


    The silver open interest rose 2231 contracts to 99,926.


    As far as the dollar goes, if the July trade deficit was $55 billion with $40 oil, what will the August figure be with oil approaching $50, $65 billion? The dollar rally here is both ludicrous and contrived!


    Fine looking gold and silver charts:


    December gold
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/84
    Some base gold has built. All near-term technical resistance has been cleared. Next stop is to fill the gap right below $420 and then to $430.


    September silver
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/94


    For months I have mentioned how atrocious The Café Sentiment Indicator has been, saying:


    *Never seen it this poor for so long over the past 6 years, especially with gold doing so relatively well compared to days of yore.
    *My hunch has been the lack of interest in gold by the general public was setting up a major move.


    Even with the excitement this week, it is no better than a 3, tops. Unreal!

    The John Brimelow Report


    VERY bad for day for Bears


    Friday, August 20, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $5.74, PM $7.48, with world gold at $407.70 and $405.40. Adequate, and lavish, for legal imports. India, for whatever reason, appears to be an enthusiastic buyer of gold from overseas at these levels.


    Standard London’s Dubai kilo bar premiums continued generous. The Shanghai Gold Exchange is showing steep discounts (over $2) from world gold, but very heavy volume. Exactly how the SGE fits into the world gold trade is unclear, but the volume suggests someone was a strong buyer during Chinese hours.


    TOCOM reversed course. Volume exploded up 166% to (a still not impressive) 16,167 Comex equivalent, the active contract closed up 9 yen, and world gold went out up 60c above NY. The white metals were all soft. Open interest slipped another 728 contracts, but inspection of the (1 day lagged) Members position suggests spec liquidation on TOCOM may indeed be finishing. (NY yesterday traded 45,574 contracts, with open interest climbing 4,474 contracts. Comex open interest has risen 18,623 contracts in the four days reported this week, (or 8.5%) - 57.9 tonnes. Gold has only risen $7.80.


    The dramatic events of this morning have superseded yesterday; suffice it to say that, as the open interest data has subsequently proved, serious buying was met with serious selling. Quite reasonably fearing a repeat of July’s successful defense of the $409 level, Refco Research prudently closed their profitable long, with the even more prudent advice to re open it if Dec gold got past $412.50. (This means they are now back in.)


    Ian McAvity, the battle-scarred Canadian gold-friendly chartist, was seen earlier this week expressing skepticism on the sector unless gold could pass $410 and the HUI 215. One of these objectives looks possible today. Martin Pring, also dubious about gold recently, took, with the advantage of some more days of data, a friendlier attitude in his weekly this morning:


    "We have been cautious on gold and gold shares for a while. This week though, the KST (a momentum measure –JB) for both series has reversed to the upside.


    This suggests that there is a good chance that the overhead resistance…will be successfully


    overcome allowing both the shares and the metal to experience a worthwhile extension to the rally."


    For technicians to turn friendly to gold would be a welcome development, notably lacking this year.


    JB

    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    The PPT rescued the DOW this week and turned the trading crowd into buyers. Since last Friday it jumped 285 points to 10,110, up 69 today:


    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/DW/X


    The DOG rose 18 to 1878.


    The major reason given for last week’s US stock market weakness was soaring oil prices. Even with today’s oil turnaround ($47.86 per barrel, down 84 cents after making a $49.40 high), oil was up $1.68 for the week. So why the big move in the DOW besides the PPT support. Guess it is because so many traders expect oil to crap out. Oil is still extremely overbought and could do anything short-term, however, a 30% correction from its highs will only take it back to $40 per barrel, a price considered onerous to the US economy only months ago.


    The tech news released after yesterday’s market close was not good:


    18:21 Semi equipment book/bill ratio fell to 1.05 in July vs StreetAccount consensus 1.07 (4 firms)
    The June book/bill ratio was 1.07. The three month moving average of bookings rose 0.1% in July to $1.61B; billings rose 2.3% to $1.54B.
    * * * * *


    SAN FRANCISCO, Aug 19 (Reuters) - North American semiconductor capital equipment makers reported that orders stabilized in July after nearly a year of gains, a U.S. trade group said on Thursday, suggesting the industry's recovery may be reaching a peak.


    Orders for equipment used to produce microchips reached $1.61 billion in July, about flat with June, Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International said in a monthly update.


    Orders were still more than double the same month last year, when the chip industry ordered $706.9 million in equipment.


    Billings, or shipments, were $1.54 billion in July, up 2 percent from June and up 96 percent from a year earlier. The year-earlier comparison matches with a recent report by industry leader Applied Materials Inc. , which on Tuesday reported a 104 percent quarterly revenue increase.


    The ratio of orders to shipments, known as the book-to-bill ratio, was 1.05 in July, meaning that for every $100 of products shipped, $105 in new orders were received.


    "The bookings and billings values for North American-based equipment companies have stabilized at high levels," Stanley Myers, president of the trade group, said in a statement…


    -END-


    This potential bombshell continues to quietly percolate:


    US subpoenas Fannie Mae in accounting probe


    WASHINGTON, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Regulators investigating Fannie Mae's accounting practices have sent subpoenas to the No. 1 U.S. mortgage finance company in connection with the probe, a source familiar with the matter said on Friday.


    Fannie Mae's financial regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, began looking into the company's books after an accounting scandal at rival mortgage enterprise Freddie Mac led to a $5 billion earnings restatement and the ouster of top executives last year.


    Regulators uncovered errors in the way Fannie Mae accounted for investments that had lost value and directed it in May to correct those errors. The company avoided an earnings restatement, but had to take a $278 million charge in the second quarter.


    OFHEO Director Armando Falcon told Congress in July that Fannie Mae had been less than fully cooperative in meeting his office's requests for information and employee availability. Falcon said he had complained to the company in writing….


    -END-


    GATA’s Mike Bolser:


    Hi Bill:
    The Fed added $3 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements today August 20th 2004, an action that caused the repo pool to dip to $44.515 Billion.


    The repo pool's 30-day ma has unmistakably changed from up to down and this is an important event that signifies a Fed tactical shift. Combined with the gold action today this isn't what the Fed normally does. They are acting as if they need less market and currency support or they have decided to abandon previous support efforts. Time will tell why this change has been made just ahead of a presidential election. Judging by the massive commodities pressure, the Fed clearly is in deep trouble so its a mystery why they are removing repo support just at this time.


    Earlier in the day things seemed to be similar to previous mini-spikes in gold and silver most always followed by later disappointments. The metrics I look at predicted a gold ceiling of $410 or so, however, when I ran my synthetics at the Noon Fix, there is a DIVG channel break to 352.61 that may be significant due to mainly to MCDI pseudo-strength.


    Yesterday I said:


    " IF my interpretation is correct, the Fed has relaxed their hold to the top of their mini-cycle range and, in order to maintain its oscillation above and below $400 PM Fix , will add down pressure very soon, say, early next week. If this doesn't happen then the Fed may retreat to a higher DIVG defense level. It is a time of change for the Fed. Can they hold?"


    I knew that either the Fed planned to foolishly hold the DIVG channel ma or they were planning a release to higher ground...it appears to be the latter.


    Judging by today's action alone, the Fed can't hold the DIVG where they planned to hold it. They may be in DEEP TROUBLE right here at DIVG = 352.61 (more below).


    The DOW is up 20 at this hour (12:30PM), bonds are quiet, with oil knocking on $49 per bbl. Indeed, oil looks like gold did in December 2002 when it ran up free of ESF gold sales because SECTREAS O'Neill had left (The president AND the Secretary of Treasury are required to operate the ESF).


    The crucial difference with gold and oil today is that there may not be any remaining source of near-term sales (SPR) left to stop the oil price rise. If this is true, then the Fed is facing an oil abyss because China (a main oil buyer) has such a large dollar surplus it can afford to keep building its own SPR reserves while the US deficits explode.


    Cayman Island Banks


    Earlier this week, I mentioned that the big increase in Caribbean Island bank transfers might be back-channel repo actions but this appears only to be oil revenue flowing from US oil firms to sellers through off shore banks the increase amount ($17Billion) fairly matches the trade deficit increase so we can solve that little mystery.


    Geopolitcs


    I follow the simmering Georgian conflict because it reveals much about US/Russian relations in general, indicates whether Russian Central bank cooperation is under geopolitical stress and shows the extreme international risks taken by the Bush Administration in its wrong-headed policy of rival encirclement at a time when the US military is clearly overextended.


    Friday, August 20, 2004
    South Ossetia: Status Quo Is Unsustainable
    Editorial
    http://www.themoscowtimes.com/…2004/08/20/005-print.html
    The long-frozen South Ossetian conflict has taken a violent turn this month in what both the conflicting sides and powerful regional stakeholders warn could lead to a full-scale war that would be devastating for the whole region.


    Both sides are playing the blame game, accusing each other as well as a mysterious third force of instigating the violence. In addition, Georgia's populist president, Mikheil Saakashvili, has repeatedly pointed the finger at Moscow, accusing it of supporting the separatist regime.


    The self-styled South Ossetian republic had no obvious interest in heating up the conflict frozen for more than 12 years. As time goes by, the international community has grown increasingly used to South Ossetia's de facto independence, if not to its claim to self-determination. Neither is Russia interested in changing the status quo, which gives it much leverage in dealing with Georgia. The fact that many South Ossetians have been granted Russian citizenship clearly reveals Russia's true intentions vis-a-vis its neighbor despite Moscow's status as a mediator and peacekeeper. END
    +++++++++++++++++++++


    I opined yesterday that the Fed might press gold down next week. This view was premature and didn't take into consideration some things I normally look at. Even though gold has run to $413 or thereabouts today, we should appreciate that the Fed precisely manages things day-to-day on long-term time scales. Therefore, when one of those long-term channels undergo a big change it is serious business. I have a forward-looking capacity and it is this metric that took a big upturn at the Noon synthetic Fix today. No one outside the Fed itself has this data.


    There remains a chance that the Fed means to hammer gold in the near future and I can't rule this out, but combined with all the other bullish indicators, that outcome seems to be remote at this moment. My oscillation pattern is on the back burner. Monday's results will be very important in confirming this change so don't bet the milk money just yet.


    Today's precious metals action suggests that the carefully crafted Fed plan for gold may be falling apart as badly as it is for crude oil (OR the Fed may have had in mind all along, only a temporary counterattack. I say this armed with certain knowledge regarding their previous Fed DIVG retreat which outwardly began in Feb 2004 with a 200 day ma change. The Fed had a VERY BAD day in the DIVG pits back on July 21, 2003 and it was on THAT day they decided to fall back. Gold AND the MCDI were up. Today is a day very similar to that previous gold cartel loss. It remains to be seen how much damage the Fed can absorb and keep clinging to the failed notion of a flat DIVG plan. It is also useful to note that Reg Howe in a conversation used the term "waypoint" to describe the recent Fed pressure on gold.


    The Fed may think it's in control but Argentina's gold purchases and the café's reliable intelligence sources pointing to huge physical buyers entering the market all tell us that the Fed's game for physical gold is ending. The Fed must know that other central banks will join Argentina in buying gold.


    I continue to search for an answer to the falling repo pool 30-day ma.
    Mike


    Something of intrigue to ponder suggests a Café member:


    Bill,
    This may be a little far fetched, but could Argentina be sending a subtle message to the IMF that they have no intention in "playing" their games, and that purchasing gold is just another way to communicate it?


    DJ Tsy's Taylor: Argentina Should Remain Engaged With IMF


    NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. Treasury Undersecretary John Taylor said it was important that Argentina stay actively engaged with the International Monetary Fund even as the country's third review with the Washington-based lender is delayed.


    His remarks come as IMF chief Rodrigo Rato prepares to visit Buenos Aires ahead of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings slated for early September. Argentina requested that the IMF effectively suspend its accord with the government until the turn of the year, so that the it can complete a $100 billion debt restructuring without IMF interference.


    "While formal negotiations on the third review will be postponed until later this year, a continued engagement is important," Taylor said Thursday in remarks published on the State Department's web site. He also said it was important that Argentina get the restructuring process out of the way as it will promote sustained growth.


    "I'm very pleased that Argentina is making progress on the macroeconomic side, the monetary policy on the fiscal side," Taylor said. "But as they have taken this opportunity to move to the third review of the IMF into the future, I'd very much hope it gives them the opportunity to negotiate with their creditors and come to a good solution."


    Argentina defaulted on most of its public-sector debt in December 2001 amid political upheaval and a financial meltdown.


    -END-
    It’s nice having a lot more smiles these days:


    Hi Bill,
    "Oh for the time the cabal swine are buried."
    I have really enjoyed some of the sarcasm in your daily summaries this week. However, before the cabal swine are buried, they should first be ground into sausage. I believe it was Bismarck who stated (paraphrased), "There are two things no civilized man should be witness to: the making of sausage and the making of laws."
    Keep up the great work.
    Best regards,
    Trevor W. Heaver


    Bear downs 36 beers, passes out at campground
    Rainier, not Busch, the beverage of choice for thirsty black bear
    The Associated Press
    Aug. 19, 2004


    BAKER LAKE, Wash. - When state Fish and Wildlife agents recently found a black bear passed out on the lawn of Baker Lake Resort, there were some clues scattered nearby — dozens of empty cans of Rainier Beer.


    The bear apparently got into campers’ coolers and used his claws and teeth to puncture the cans. And not just any cans.


    "He drank the Rainier and wouldn’t drink the Busch beer," said Lisa Broxson, bookkeeper at the campground and cabins resort east of Mount Baker.


    Fish and Wildlife enforcement Sgt. Bill Heinck said the bear did try one can of Busch, but ignored the rest. The beast then consumed about 36 cans of Rainier.


    A wildlife agent tried to chase the bear from the campground but the animal just climbed a tree to sleep it off for another four hours. Agents finally herded the bear away, but it returned the next morning.


    Agents then used a large, humane trap to capture it for relocation, baiting the trap with the usual: doughnuts, honey and, in this case, two open cans of Rainier.


    That did the trick.


    "This is a new one on me," Heinck said. "I’ve known them to get into cans, but nothing like this. And it definitely had a preference."
    -END-


    Yes, the World Gold Council should be sent packing:


    Further to your ongoing rant about the uselessness of the official gold community, check out the FT article below. Apparently the increase in physical demand that JB has been reporting for months is attributable to jewelry? An allusion is made to gold as a safe-haven investment in times of political turmoil but no mention of the buying actions of the Argentine CB or what this could portend should other CBs be following suit. Why would any gold company support these guys?


    Also of note was the leap in the HUI yesterday for no apparent reason. Never mind technical analysis, my market activity is largely driven by activity in the gold indexes as leading indicators. They appear to be driven by inside information. When the HUI leaps and I can't reason why it always appears that those buying had an inside track on non-public information. Sure enough, bullion scores a big advance today on the back of reports showing that the US economic recovery is falling apart - wait until the increase in oil prices is reflected at the pump!!! I can only imagine what the August trade deficit will look like.
    Brian Bacon


    Demand for gold buoyant in second quarter
    By Alex Skorecki
    Published: August 19 2004


    Demand for gold was buoyant in the second quarter of the year, driven by strong economic growth, the World Gold Council said on Thursday.


    Consumer demand rose 11 per cent in weight terms and 25 per cent in dollar terms on a . year earlier according to figures from the precious metals consultancy GFMS.


    However the World Gold Council also said that continuing uncertainty about the longer term economic and political outlook was adding a further boost to demand for gold, a traditional safe-haven asset.


    Demand for gold jewellery was up 8 per cent at 664 tonnes in the quarter, in spite of a price rise of 13 per cent. Net retail investment rose by one-third to 79 tonnes, the highest second-quarter figure since 1999 when demand was driven by fears about the millennium bug.


    James Burton, World Gold Council chief executive, said: Our promotional activities have clearly helped boost demand in markets such as Turkey, China and India.


    Turkish demand was up 36 per cent and demand in greater China was up by one-third. One of the strongest countries was Vietnam where demand soared by more than 50 per cent.


    However, the WGC said the main cause of the rise in greater China was the effect of the Sars virus, which had depressed demand in 2003, producing a jump in this year's comparison.


    Jewellery sales in the US were 4 per cent higher, with strong buying reported in the run-up to Mother's Day. In Europe trends remained generally negative, although the decline was less strong.


    In the UK, concerns about the impact of rising interest rates on disposable income damped optimism, the WGC said.


    -END-

    On gold market manipulation:


    Dear Bill,
    Anyone who has any doubts about the manipulation/management of the markets only needs to look at the action this week.


    1. Comex Gold futures were held in check for 3 days at the 410 level. Nine minute tick charts show clearly the selling that was occurring at this level.
    2. Last evening on Comex Access, there were large blocks of 40, 50 & 60 lot trades capping the market at the 409-410 level until they got the market to break later in the session.
    3. Today, Reuters released a news story that the Iraq Shrine was taken over by Iraqi security forces. The announcement hit the wire just as the Dollar Index on Nymex was about to creator.
    4. A CNBC talking head stated today that the margins on Crude Oil futures should be raised to stop the "speculation" that is driving the market higher. These are the same folks who were totally silent about stopping the speculation in the stock market by increasing broker loan rates.
    5. An article about the Gold hoard stored at the NYFRB was released with pictures of a wall of bullion – no shortages here!
    6. The news of Argentine Gold purchases was given no media exposure.


    Thank goodness for GATA’s efforts to keep the gold community informed.
    John C


    Mahendra had some week. Long gold, silver, the precious metals stocks, short-term bullish the US stock market, and calling for a technical correction in oil. Sure there was more. The FORCE seems to be with Mahendra. May that FORCE be with us too!


    Houston’s Dan Norcini:


    Hey Wild Bill:
    Nice day for us good guys.
    Have you noticed Seabridge Gold today? Very impressive gains. Up almost 14% as I write this.
    Looks like crude is too much for these guys to handle.
    I think that out of all the commentary out there, you have hit the nail right on the head Bill. No one that I have read has made the connection between Arab oil interests swimming in a sea of dollars that are swamping them as they rake in these oil profits and their gold buying. That is the most natural and sensible place for them to funnel that windfall especially given their propensity towards the yellow metal in that region of the world. Nice call partner!
    Best,
    Dan


    Seabridge gold, a quality exploration company, closed at $2.98, up 33 cents.


    Two weeks ago, Golden Star made it to the Toronto Stock Exchange's fortnightly list of top 20 largest short positions. It closed today at $4.93, up 16 cents and the third biggest winner in the HUI. No way GSS’s 15 million share short position, still on as of last week, has been substantially covered. Last year with gold at these prices, Golden Star was trading closer to $7. Since then, their gold resources have gone up by 33%. For GSS to be below $5, makes no sense at these gold prices.


    The senior golds continued their move up with the XAU advancing 1.80 to 95.82 with the HUI leaping another 4.28 to 209.49. The HUI ran into stiff resistance once it took out 210 as it made a high right above 211. Still, it was some week.


    The smaller golds remain comatose. Stale longs can’t wait to sell into rallies and continue to do so. There is just very little interest out there among the investing public as evidenced by the sorry Café Sentiment Indicator. Will be at this market business for 30 years soon. Can’t think of a time when the fundamentals of a market were so spectacularly bullish, the market actually starts moving sharply in the right direction for the right reasons, and investors could care less.


    I reiterate. This sort of lack of understanding of what the gold market has been all about, and is about, is leading us to a giant move higher for the precious metals – and will give us that historic investment opportunity of all time.


    What is so important for Café members to keep in mind and on the front burner is the gold market has been rigged for many years. The official price today is a contrived one, held artificially low by white-collar gangsters. Were it not for these sanctimonious thugs, the price of gold would be hundreds of dollars per ounce higher. Fortunately, these bums are going to run out of available supply to continue their scam. The surge in cash buying we are seeing now will hasten their doom. When the cartel clowns are carried out, the price of gold is going to go bonkers. It will happen sooner than THEY think!


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS



    Ab Montag wird uns hoffentlich wieder Thai mit den Berichten versorgen.

    @ Thai und GoldenCentury,


    sorry, wenn ich eine falsche Info bezüglich der Optionsscheine reingestellt habe.



    August 2004


    Neues Kapital im Inflations-/Deflationskampf: US Wirtschaft steuert auf Rezession zu 


    Der Arbeitsmarkt in den USA ist zum Stillstand gekommen, Firmeninventare steigen alarmierend. Firmenchefs sagen, es sei nur ein " soft patch" in der Writschaft; Greenspan meint, die Schwäche sei auf Grund " transitorischer Wirkungen" des höheren Ölpreises.


    Wir sind anderer Meinung. Vor nur ein paar Wochen hat Greenspan vorhergesagt, Arbeitsplätze müssen geschaffen werden, es sei nur eine Frage der Zeit. Er lag falsch. Die Wirkung der enormen Stimulierung der US Wirtschaft durch Bush und Greenspan der letzten Jahre klingt aus, die Wirtschaft flaut ab. Das nächste Wirtschaftsförderungsprogramm wir nicht kommen bevor die nächste Regierung eingeschworen ist. Bis dahin bekommt der US Verbraucher nur noch eine Cash-Infusion durch Microsoft's ausserodentliche Multi-Milliarden Ausschüttung, die zur Weihnachtszeit nach Schätzungen mancher das US Bruttoinlandsprodukt um 0.2%-0.3% erhöhen wird.
    Greenspan hat diese Woche die Zinsen weiter erhöht. Er hatte wenig Wahl, denn er muss die Zinsen auf ein höheres Niveau bringen, um sie später wieder - zur Stimulierung der Wirtschaft - senken zu können. Auch das derzeitige Zinsniveau ist noch inflationär. Greenspan muss positiv über die Wirtschaft sprechen, da die Wahrnehmung seiner Aktionen eine immer grössere Rolle spielt.


    Der Inflations-/Deflationskampf schreibt ein neues Kapitel, ein etwas anderes als wir als das wahrscheinlichste angesehen hatten. Während des letzten Jahres haben langfristige Zinsen nur auf Wirtschaftswachstumszahlen reagiert, nicht auf inflationäre Einflüsse. Dieses Frühjahr sind langfristige Anleihen zusammengebrochen und wir nahmen an, dass sich die Inflation in den langristigen Zinsen nun widerspiegeln würde. Letzte Woche wurde es klar, dass sowohl das Ansteigen, wie auch - seit ein paar Wochen -, der Fall der langfristigen Zinsen ausschliesslich auf Wirtschaftswachstum (oder dessen Fehlen) zurückzuführen sind. Als letzte Woche bestätigt wurde, die Wirtschaft werde langsamer, sind langfristige Zinsen gefallen, die Börse fiel, der Dollar fiel, Gold stieg.
    Während Inflation in jeder Ecke der Wirtschaft bemerkbar wird, so ist diese nicht in den langfristigen Zinsen zu erkennen. Deflationäre Kräfte sind einfach zu stark.


    Wir sind mit Greenspan nicht einverstanden, dass die Wirtschaftsschwäche auf " transitorische" Einflüsse zurückzuführen ist. Greenspan und Bush haben enorme globale Ungleichgewichte gefördert - die hohen Ölpreise sind hiervon lediglich ein Symptom. Wir haben eine globale Wirtschaft, die überhitzt ist, gleichzeitig ist die US Wirtschaft auf dem Weg in die Rezession. Künstlich tiefe Wechselkurse in Asien bewirken für dortige Regierungen besorgniserregende Fehlallokationen von Kapital, sowie Inflation. Die dort produzierten Güter überschwemmen den US Markt mit Billigprodukten, eine grosse Herausforderung für US Firmen, die mit Investitionen im Ausland und allgemeiner Zurückhaltung reagieren. Der US Verbraucher ist ausgelaugt und überlebt nur durch tiefe Zinsen. All dies ergibt keinen Spielraum, Verbraucherpreise zu erhöhen, während ein tieferer Dollar weiter Druck auf Rohstoffpreise ausübt. Die beste Analogie, die uns einfällt, ist die von Autoreifen, die auf einem Feldweg den Griff verlieren und durchdrehen. Während man das Fuss vom Gaspedal nehmen sollte, geben Bush & Greenspan Vollgas. Tatsächlich kommt das Auto vorwärts, nur sehr ineffizient, ausserdem wird viel Dreck aufgewühlt, und irgendwann wird das Auto ins schleudern und schilesslich zum Stillstand kommen.


    Dies erklärt auch die Verschiedenen Signale, die wir aus der US Wirtschaft bekommen. Einige Geschäfte florieren und stellen Leute ein, während andere leiden. Dies ist mehr als die übliche Re-allokation von Kapital auf Grund eines neuen Umfeldes.


    Greenspan war immer spät mit dem Wechsel seiner Zinspolitik. Dieses Mal wird es nicht ander sein, er wird Zinsen erhöhen, bis die Wirtschaft zum Stillstand gekommen ist. Während wir weiterhin glauben, dass langfristige Zinsen steigen werden, wenn Inflation zur Sorge in der Öffentlichkeit wird, so sagt uns der Markt zur zeit, dass langfristige Zinsen fallen werden, so dass die Zinskurve weiter ausflachen wird (rezessiv für die Wirtschaft). Wir werden ein Niedrigzins-/Niedrigwachstumsumfeld haben. Der klare Verlierer ist der US Dollar, der zu alle dem noch das Unahltbare Leistungsbilanzdefizit tragen muss.Vor einem Jahr dachten wir, dass das optimistischste Szenario eines mit hohen Wachstum und hoher Inflation sein wird. Dies ist nicht der Fall, denn der nächste Stimulus kommt frühestens in 6-9 Monaten, während kurzfristige Zinsen steigen.


    Der US Häusermarkt scheint seinen Höhepunkt erreicht zu haben. In Südkalifornien, einem der am meisten überhitzten Märkte, steigen Inventare, während weniger Interessenten im Markt sind. Derzeit halten Preise noch. Ein Zusammenbruch dieser Blase wäre der Todesstoss für den US Verbraucher, der durch diverse Stimulierungen über die letzten 10 Jahre bei Laune gehalten wurde.


    Jeder Wirtschaftszyklus etnwickelt sich anders. Gerade wenn unsere Zentralbankchefs dachten, sie hätten schon alles gesehen, gibt es neue Herausforderungen. Dieser Zyklus wird anders als die Stagflation der 70'er Jahre aussehen, aber wir beneiden den Gewinner der kommenden US Präsidentschaftswahl nicht.



    Bitte nehmen sie mit uns Kontakt auf, wenn wir Ihnen Fragen beantworten können.


    Axel Merk
    Merk Investments


    quelle:
    http://www.merkinvestments.com…-by-date/2004/2004-08-...

    10 Gründe warum Gold auf über 500 US $ für die Feinunze steigen wird...


    von Goldbugs500



    [Blockierte Grafik: http://imperium.de/animationen/anims4/Dotani2.gif]  Gold lässt sich nicht beliebig vermehren, im Gegenzug zum Papiergeld, Aktien, Anleihen und der gleichen...folge...Gold schützt vor Währungs und Schuldenkrisen...


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://imperium.de/animationen/anims4/Dotani2.gif] Das US -Leistungsbilanzdefizit erreicht immer neue Rekordausmaße, dadurch wird die internationale Finanzwelt mißtrauischer...die unmittelbare folge...der Dollar wird weiter fallen!


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://imperium.de/animationen/anims4/Dotani2.gif]  Die Aktienindizes weißen eine deutlich höhere Bewertung als der langjährige Durschnitt auf....die folge..es dürften sich dramatische Kursverluste ankündigen...


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://imperium.de/animationen/anims4/Dotani2.gif]  Das WAG ( Washington Agreement on Gold) wurde im März 2004 für weiter 5 Jahre verlängert. Die menge der Jährlichen Verkäufe wurden auf 500 to begrenzt...folge... dies sollte für die notwendige Sicherheit für die nächsten Jahre sorgen...


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://imperium.de/animationen/anims4/Dotani2.gif]  Das Angebotsdefizit wird immer größer...die großen Zentralbanken verleihen Ihr Gold nur noch in begrenzten Umfang...folge...der Preis läuft dem tatsächlichen Angebot davon...


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://imperium.de/animationen/anims4/Dotani2.gif]  Die meissten Minenkonzerne fahren Ihre Hedgebücher zurück, verzichten somit auf Absicherungsgeschäfte...folge...sie gehen von ansteigenden Preisen aus...


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://imperium.de/animationen/anims4/Dotani2.gif] Die Globalisierung schreitet auch im Goldsektor weiter voran, durch den Konzentratrionsprozess reduzieren die kleinen Partner Ihre Goldverkäufe...folge...das Angebot sinkt...


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://imperium.de/animationen/anims4/Dotani2.gif] Es werden einige Jahre vergehen, bis die in die Exploration gesteckten Gelder zu einem Förder beginn bei den Minen führen...folge... es wird noch eine lange Zeit vergehen, bis das Golddefizit abgebaut werden kann...


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://imperium.de/animationen/anims4/Dotani2.gif]  Die Flucht in Sicherheit nach weltweiten Terroranschlägen wird weiter zu nehmen...folge... der POG wird steigen...


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://imperium.de/animationen/anims4/Dotani2.gif] Gold ist Geld, Gold ist Freiheit!

    Gold wird als Gewinner eines globalen Finanzcrashes hervorgehen!

    Gold ist Mythos und das schon seit mehr als 4000 Jahren!



    Warum soll ich gerade jetzt kaufen?



    [Blockierte Grafik: http://imperium.de/animationen/anims4/Dotani2.gif] Historisch gesehen ist Gold und auch Silber akuell Preiswert! So büßte der Dollar seit bestehen der FED ( 1913) über 90 % seines Wertes ein, ich behaupte...das ist noch nicht das Ende der Fahnenstange...


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://imperium.de/animationen/anims4/Dotani2.gif] Wer jetzt kauft, wird Gold und Silber besitzen, wenn Anleger in der ganzen Welt dem gelben und weißen Metall nachjagen um Ihre Vermögenswerte mit greifbaren Metallen in Sicherheit zu bringen.


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://imperium.de/animationen/anims4/Dotani2.gif] Wer jetzt kauft, wird Gold besitzen wenn der Besitz verboten wird...



    Was soll ich kaufen?



    [Blockierte Grafik: http://imperium.de/animationen/anims4/Dotani2.gif] Nur die liquidesten Münzen und Barren, möglichst ohne grossen Spread. Wie Degussa Barren, Heraeus oder Schweizer Hersteller. Bei den Münzen American Eagles, Can. Maples, Krügerrand, Austral. Nuggets. mit Einschränkungen Kookaburras, Pandas, Lunars. Sammlermünzen sind als Krisen Währung nicht geeignet, sollte der Moment des Gebrauches kommen, zählt nur die Reinheit des Metallgehaltes.



    Wo soll ich kaufen?



    Wie überall im Leben, sind preisvergleiche unbedingt notwendig. So kann jeder für sich die richtige Entscheidung treffen. Sicher lassen sich mit Direktkäufen in Australien oder Canada der eine oder andere Euro sparen. Doch wer sich nicht mit Steuer, Strafzoll, Flughafen und etc. rum ärgern möchte, der sollte auf die Profis vertrauen...welche es auch in Deutschland gibt.


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://imperium.de/animationen/anims/ledani1.gif]Für den Goldkauf möchte ich unbedingt die Fa. Pro Aurum aus München empfehlen http://www.proaurum.de/


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://imperium.de/animationen/anims/ledani1.gif] Für den Kauf von Silber Bullion Münzen Frank Ewers vom Silverdiscount...http://www.silverdiscount.de



    Fazit:



    Mit diesen Zeilen, verknüpfe ich die Hoffnung, das sich der eine oder ander doch mal mit Gold und Silber beschäftigt...nur so kann er seine mühevollen Ersparnisse sichern.



    Was kommt danach?


    Der POG wird weiter steigen, die USA werden dadurch größere Probleme bekommen, das Vertrauen in den Dollar wird abnehmen. Die Chinesen und Japaner werden eines Tages massenweise in Gold und Silber flüchten, irgendwann wird es vorbei sein mit dem Kauf der US Staatsanleihen.


    Nun verschiedene Zentralbanken haben teile Ihres Tafel Goldes veräußert ( z.b. England, Schweiz) Nur die USA nicht! Immerhin entsprechen Ihre über 8000 tonnen Gold ca. 57 % Ihrer Währungsreserven! Ein Schelm wer da nichts böses denkt! Sollten genau die Goldreserven der rettende Anker sein?


    Es ist gut möglich, das es genau wie in den 70 iger Jahren zu einer vollkommen Neubewertung des Goldes kommt. Nun uns kann ja nichts passieren... wir sind ja vorbereitet...


    Die weltweiten Währungsreserven in Gold betragen ca. 11 % ...Mit einer Neubewertung könnten die Schulden und das Leistungsbilanzdefizit drastisch verringert werden...



    Ist das nicht eine einfache und zu gleich geniale Lösung?


    Warten wirs ab...hinter her sind wir immer schlauer....


    Schönes Wochenende!

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.spiegel.de/static/sys/logo_120x61.gif]


    SPIEGEL ONLINE - 23. August 2004, 9:12
    URL: http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,314522,00.html
    Wall Street

    Am Golde hängt...


    In einem Bunker tief unter dem Wall-Street-Viertel lagert die sicherste Geldanlage: 8000 Tonnen Goldbarren - die größte Goldreserve der Welt. Deren Gesamtwert, derzeit knapp eine Billion Dollar, steigt mit jeder Terrorwarnung.


    New York - Leise führt einen der Aufzug in die Tiefe, hinab bis zum Felssockel Manhattans, 30 Meter unter New Yorks Finanzdistrikt. Der Tresor, ein dreistöckiger Betonbunker, ist mit einem einzigen, gigantischen, 90 Tonnen schweren Stahlzylinder versiegelt. Jeden Morgen dreht sich der Zylinder langsam und gibt den Zugang frei. Jeden Abend schließt er sich dann wieder. "Wer hier eingesperrt wird", sagt eine Bankangestellte, "hat 76 Stunden Atemluft."


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.spiegel.de/img/0,1020,6836,00.jpg]
    Goldbarren: 60 Prozent Wertgewinn seit Anfang 2001


    Gut zu wissen, dass das größte Goldlager der Welt so hermetisch abgeriegelt ist. Rund 8000 Tonnen Goldbarren, Marktwert derzeit fast eine Billion Dollar: Hier unter dem Finanzherz der USA, im untersten Keller der New Yorker Vertretung der US-Notenbank Federal Reserve, ruht ein Viertel aller globalen Goldreserven - mehr als in Fort Knox.


    Was hilft euch Schönheit, junges Blut?
    Das ist wohl alles schön und gut.
    Nach Golde drängt,
    am Golde hängt,
    doch alles.


    Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Faust



    Der Fahrstuhl in den Goldbunker schickt den Besucher auf eine seltsame Zeitreise. Während heutige Wall-Street-Reichtümer im virtuellen Raum gehandelt werden, in gestaltlosen Google-Aktien oder digitalen Transaktionen, wirkt die physische Präsenz der hier gehorteten Barren überwältigend. Matt schimmernd, in 122 Gitterzellen bis zur Decke gestapelt, sieht das so unwirklich aus wie die Szenerie eines James-Bond-Films aus den 60er Jahren.


    Verlässlicher Trend nach oben


    Doch dies ist real. Überall hängen Videokameras. Elektronische Sensoren registrieren jede Bewegung der Tresortür. Die Wächter sind überwiegend Scharfschützen, die auf einer eigenen Schießbahn im Hause trainieren. Im Alarmfall schließen sich alle Tore in 27 Sekunden; das Gebäude wird zur Festung verbarrikadiert. Das letzte Mal geschah das am 11. September 2001. Als zwei Straßen weiter das World Trade Center zusammenstürzte, versank die Welt draußen im Chaos. Die Waage im bebensicheren Goldbunker der Fed bewegte sich um keinen Millimeter.


    "Gold", sagt Peter Bakstansky, Vizepräsident der New Yorker Fed, "bleibt unsere sicherste Reserve." Das bedeutet erstens: So schnell kommt hier keiner rein (und hat es seit dem Bau dieses Tresorbunkers 1924 auch noch keiner versucht). Zweitens: So leicht wird der Wert des Goldes nicht durch äußere Ereignisse wie Krieg, Terror und Rezession erschüttert.



    Im Gegenteil. Gold war immer schon die beste Krisenanlage und ist es heute mehr denn je. Gold-Futures schlossen die vergangene Woche mit 415,50 Dollar pro Feinunze ab. Anfang 2001 noch bei knapp 260 Dollar, hat das edelste aller Metalle somit bisher 60 Prozent zugelegt, in mitunter wilden Sprüngen zwar, doch stets mit verlässlichem Trend nach oben.


    Bei Gefahr: Run aufs Gold


    Die meisten Gewinne machte Gold in den Zeiten, da andere Wertanlagen schlingerten. Denn jede Krise, die die Börsen schockt, ist gut für Goldanlagen. Die Kämpfe im Irak, der Ölpreis, die Unsicherheit über die US-Wirtschaft: All das fördert den Gold-Boom. "Die Terror-Bedrohung", sagt der australische Investment-Experte Jonathan Barratt, "bleibt der Hauptfaktor, der den Goldpreis stützt."


    Ein Ende scheint nicht in Sicht. Todd Hultman, Chef der Futures-Website Dailyfutures.com, erwartet, dass sich die meisten Negativ-Faktoren - inklusive der US-Wirtschaft - auch mittelfristig nicht ändern und die Gold-Futures zum Jahresende 450 Dollar erreichen. Investmentberater Peter Grandich peilt 2005 sogar 500 Dollar pro Feinunze an.


    Gold-Futures reagieren auf jede neue Terrorwarnung, jede neue Schlacht im Irak, jede neue Attentatssorge bei den Olympischen Spielen. "Wenn die internationale Lage gefährlich wird", weiß Milton Ezrati, Ökonom beim Investmenthaus Lord, Abbett & Co., "gibt es immer einen Run aufs Gold." Wie seit Jahrhunderten versuchten die Leute dort ihr Schäfchen ins Trockene zu bringen.


    Zuflucht in der Anonymität


    Hinzu kommen die nagenden Zweifel an der US-Konjunktur: All dies treibe weitere Anleger vom Dollar und von US-Aktien weg zum Gold, dem "sicheren Schutzhafen in unsicheren Zeiten", sagt Ezrati. So machten Gold-Futures an der New York Mercantile Exchange kürzlich, als die miesen US-Arbeitsmarktzahlen bekannt wurden, einen Tagessprung von 7,50 Dollar.


    Ezrati weist auch noch auf einen anderen Aspekt hin. Die verschärfte Überwachung globaler Geldströme auf der Jagd nach gut finanzierten Terrorgruppen wie al-Qaida, sagt er, mache Gold als Rücklage zusätzlich attraktiv: "Das hat viele Individuen und Institutionen - egal, ob sie mit Terrorismus zu tun haben oder nicht - veranlasst, Zuflucht in der Anonymität des Goldes zu suchen."


    So anonym ist das, dass einem auch Fed-Banker Bakstansky nicht sagen mag, wessen Gold da eigentlich tief unter seinem Büro eingelagert ist. Schmunzelnd verrät er nur Allgemeines: Die meisten der 60 Goldkonten seien Reserven ausländischer Zentralbanken und Währungsinstitutionen. Die freuen sich nicht nur über die Anonymität und Sicherheit der Verwahrung, sondern auch über die geringen Nebenkosten: Die Fed hebt die Barren umsonst auf und verlangt nur für jede Transportaktion eine Gebühr - 1,75 Dollar.

    Kurz nach dem entsprechenden BBC-Artikel bringt jetzt also auch der Spiegel einen Artikel über das Gold im Fed-Bunker. Interessant, was dabei weggelassen wurde und welche Aspektte hinzugefügt und betont wurden:


    - Im Spiegel-Artikel steht nichts davon, dass die Auslieferung der Goldreserven auch blockiert werden kann (im BBC-Artikel wird eine entsprechende Blockierung gegenüber Iran erwähnt). Dass ein Grossteil dieser Goldreserven Ausländern gehört, wird kurz am Rande erwähnt (aber nicht, dass v.a. Deutschland viel ihrer Goldreserven dort lagert).


    - Dafür wird (eigentlich ohne erkennbaren Zusammenhang) im grössten Teil des Artikels darauf herumgeritten, Gold profitiere vom Terror und von schlechten Neuigkeiten. Schon im Abstract! Dass es da andere Faktoren gibt, welche viel entscheidender sind, die für Gold sprechen, bleibt unerwähnt. Man will einmal mehr Gold in ein schlechtes Licht rücken und die Goldanleger im mindesten als Pessimisten, wenn nicht gar als Krisengewinnler hinstellen.


    - Es wird erwähnt, dass Gold Anonymität biete - und im gleichen Satz wird der Terror und die Terrorfinanzierung angesprochen. Werden hier gezielt die Argumente erwähnt, welche später für ein allfälliges Goldverbot hinhalten werden müssen? Zwar steht im Nebensatz, dass nicht alle, welche sich für diese Anonymität interessieren etwas mit Terrorismus zu tun haben (schön zu wissen! :rolleyes: ) - dass dieser Wunsch nach Anonymität aber durchaus gute und legitime Gründe hat, bleibt unerwähnt.


    - In zahlreichen Nebensätzen merkt man heraus, was der Autor vom Gold hält oder suggerieren will, z.B. dass es eine veraltete Finanzanlage sei ("Zeitmaschine", "Bond-Film aus den 60igern"...).

    Thom,


    die positiven Bemerkungen im Artikel sind aber auch vorhanden:


    "In einem Bunker tief unter dem Wall-Street-Viertel lagert die sicherste Geldanlage"


    "Während heutige Wall-Street-Reichtümer im virtuellen Raum gehandelt werden, in gestaltlosen Google-Aktien oder digitalen Transaktionen, wirkt die physische Präsenz der hier gehorteten Barren überwältigend."


    Zwar:
    "unwirklich aus wie die Szenerie eines James-Bond-Films aus den 60er Jahren"
    Aber:
    "Doch dies ist real."


    ""Gold", sagt Peter Bakstansky, Vizepräsident der New Yorker Fed, "bleibt unsere sicherste Reserve."


    "Verlässlicher Trend nach oben"


    "So leicht wird der Wert des Goldes nicht durch äußere Ereignisse wie Krieg, Terror und Rezession erschüttert."


    Gold war immer schon die beste Krisenanlage und ist es heute mehr denn je.


    "...die Gold-Futures zum Jahresende 450 Dollar erreichen"

    Hallo Ulfur


    Du hast recht, dass auch positive Aussagen im Artikel vorlkamen. Trotzdem hat der ganze Artikel bei mir eher den Eindruck gemacht, dass er zum Ziel hat, Gold zu diskreditieren. Aber vielleicht bin ich da auch schon etwas übersensibilisiert auf derartige Machenschaften... ;) :rolleyes:


    Komisch jedenfalls, dass der Artikel sich schliesslich eher um Gold allgemein dreht, anstatt etwas mehr auf die Modalitäten der Goldaufbewahrung in N.Y. für ausländische Zentralbanken einzugehen (und in diesem Zusammenhang auch auf das deutsche Gold).


    Zitat

    Gold war immer schon die beste Krisenanlage und ist es heute mehr denn je.


    Gold ist eben nicht nur eine Krisenanlage, sondern noch viel mehr. Gold bietet die ultimative Sicherheit, aber Gold ist auch das ultimative Wertaufbewahrungsmittel, das ultimative Tauschmittel, Gold ist Geld!
    Einmal abgesehen davon, dass "Krisenanlage" sich in meinen Ohren schon eher negativ anhört. Wie wäre es mit positiv besetzten Begriffen, wie "Sicherheit", "Werterhaltung", oder wenigstens "krisenresistente Anlage".
    Vielleicht haltet ihr die Wortwahl für nebensächlich, aber mit der gezielten Wortwahl wird manipuliert , das wissen gute Journalisten. Es macht einen Unterschied, ob nach dem Lesen des Artikels im Kopf die Worte "Gold, Krise, Terror" oder "Gold, Sicherheit, Werterhaltung, etc." nachhallt.

    @Ulfur@Thom


    Der Spiegel Bericht zeigt, das wieder ueber Gold nachgedacht werden darf, und ueber dieses wichtige Thema heute mehr geschrieben wird, als frueher. Das finde ich prinzipiell einmal sehr positiv.


    Sowas war in den letzten Jahren im Spiegel nicht allzuviel zu erleben. Ob der Author unterschwellig nur seine privaten Ansichten, wie von Thom zwischen den Zeilen gelesen, Assoziierungen von Gold mit Terror, und Kriese an die Leser bringen wollte, oder ob er sogar ganz bewusst diese Verbindungen den Lesern suggerieren wollte kann ich nicht mit Sicherheit erkennen.


    Zumindest haette der Author die Frage nach den Besitzern dieses "Gold Schatzes" naeher hinterfragen, oder noch besser recherchieren koennen. Ebenso erwaehnenswert die Frage, warum denn seit 2 Generationen jede staatliche, oder unabhaengige Ueberpruefung dieser "angeblich" dort bei der FED, einer privaten Bank, mit dem Recht Geld aus dem Nichts zu schaffen, und ihrer Funktion als US Zentralbank, im tiefen Keller gelagerten ca. 8000 Tonnen US ?? Gold abgeblockt, und verhindert wird.


    Trotzdem glaube ich nicht, dass dieser Spiegel Bericht beim Leser negative Gedanken zum Gold allgemein hervorrufen konnte. Eher das Gegenteil duerfte der Fall sein, so wie es Ulfur anscheinend auch sieht.


    Der eine oder andere Leser dieses Spiegelberichtes wird sich vielleicht beim naechten Bank Besuch die Ausgestellten Gold Muenzen mit etwas tieferen Interesse betrachten als noch vor diesem Spiegel Beitrag zum Gold.


    Hoffen wir's


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru

    Ja, hoffen wir es... grundsätzlich finde ich es auch begrüssenswert, dass überhaupt über dieses Thema berichtet wird. Vielleicht werden sich so gewisse aufgeweckte Spiegel-Leser trotzdem die Frage stellen, wieso die Fed diese "Dienstleistung" den anderen Staaten gerne gratis zur Verfügung stellt...

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/images_v1/top_mcnilogo.gif]


    http://www.channelnewsasia.com…iness/view/102392/1/.html


    Business News


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.channelnewsasia.com…lt/afp_world_business.jpg]


    Time is GMT + 8 hours
    Posted: 22 August 2004 1349 hrs


    Adapt or die, the order for South African gold mining industry


    JOHANNESBURG : South Africa's gold mining sector, for many years a cornerstone of the economy, is looking outside the country's borders for survival, its sparkle diminished by forex regulations, a strong rand and emptying mines.


    Some of the world's largest mining giants like Anglogold, Gold Fields and Durban Roodepoort Deep have cast their nets as far as Australia, Fiji and Russia as part of a future plan to continue operations.


    Vying for the title of the world's largest gold producer, Anglogold formally merged with Ghanian-based Ashanti in April, trading shares on the New York stock exchange.


    Canada's IAMGold last week said it had plans to submit to a friendly takeover by Gold Fields.


    Both companies have been successful in branching into Australia with Anglogold Ashanti even eyeing stakes in Russia's Trans-Siberian Gold. Earlier this year Durban Roodepoort Deep bought into Fiji's largest Emperor Gold Mine.


    Zitat

    "In the last few years foreign exchange controls, the depletion of resources and now a strong local currency have forced the big gold companies to diversify and move beyond the borders of South Africa," said Mike Schussler, an analyst at the Johannesburg-based brokerage T-sec.


    Zitat

    "And while there has been a relaxation in foreign exchange controls, it still forces companies to list overseas, where they have better access to capital to fund their ventures," Schussler told AFP..


    Gold mines in South Africa have produced much of the world's gold since the precious metal was first discovered in the country, near Johannesburg in 1886.


    At their peak, in 1970, the mines produced 1,000 tonnes of gold, equivalent to 79 percent of the world's newly mined supply that year.


    South Africa is still the world's largest producer of gold, the Johannesburg-based Financial Mail reported recently, "but it mined a mere 375.8 tonnes of gold last year, or 15 percent of world newly mined supply of about 2,593 tonnes."


    In 1994, when the country produced 584 tonnes of gold, there were 48 individual operating gold mines listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange's (JSE) Securities Exchange.


    Zitat

    "Now there are just 11, of which only four are major players: Anglogold Ashanti, Gold Fields, Harmony and Durban Roodepoort Deep," the FM added.


    Operations in South Africa's deep underground mines are also costly, having to dig deeper and deeper for gold ore, compared to open cast mines in other countries.


    And a strong rand -- South Africa's volatile local currency is hovering at around 6.50 to the dollar -- has hit export markets including the mining sector hard.


    Zitat

    "Our long-term strategy is to diversify away from sole reliance on deep level, hard rock gold mines," said Steve Lenahan, an Anglogold spokesman.


    Zitat

    "This took us to areas such as Namibia, North and South America, Mali, later Australia and Tanzania and even later Ghana, Guinea and Zimbabwe," he told AFP.


    Lenahan said Anglogold's strategy was not to leave South Africa but to "diversify the current mining of ore body."


    South Africa's National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), an affiliate of the powerful Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), which claims a membership of around 1.7 million, have warned that diversification should not happen to the detriment of the local labour force.


    Since the late 1980s, the number of mineworkers has fallen from more than 500,000 to fewer than 200,000, according to the South African Chamber of Mines.


    "You can't fight diversification," said NUM spokesman Moferefere Lekorotsoana. "It's a reality we have to deal with."


    "But it's a question of good management. You cannot have all these ventures abroad while your operations in South Africa suffer," he told AFP.


    The country's mining houses are currently looking at various black economic employment ventures involving its mines.


    "If it's not done properly, you will have all these ventures overseas and back in South Africa you'll have black economic empowerment companies sitting with a bunch of empty shells for mineshafts," he said.


    Lenahan added that Anglogold was in the process of closing down two mines.


    Zitat

    "But these are mines that have reached the end of the natural lifespan," he said.


    - AFP

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    Gold eases in early trade – London Bullion Report



    23rd August 2004


    A test to $49.40 a-barrel for crude oil futures on Friday provided the catalyst for the yellow metals strong close after rising to a high of $413.75 during US trade. The yellow metal began the day around $406.75 and made a test towards the $408 level at the end of Asian trade. Profit taking from European traders capped the move, pushing gold back to $405.30 by the COMEX open. Gold saw a brief dip below $405 once the US session was underway but the rapid gains in oil and news of continued fighting between rebels loyal to Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr and Iraqi and US forces but quickly motored higher, stalling briefly around $409-10, before running on to a high of $413.75. Gold closed firmly at $412.80 but has run into light profit taking so far today, trading back to the $411 area. Having partially detached itself from the dollar over the past week gold now seems to have found a little life of its own, as traders react the inflationary implications of higher oil prices. Gold really needs to hold above the $409-10 level in order to maintain the rally. Resistance should be found between $415-16 but above there we will likely see a quick move towards $420.


    Silver was busy on Friday with the metal seeing heavy interest on both sides of the market. The industrial metal began the day around $6.80 and after a slow Asian session began to drift lower as the market reacted to the pressure on gold. Silver dipped to the $6.75 level by the COMEX open but quickly bounced once the US session was underway in reaction to the upwards moves in gold. The industrial metal quickly pushed to a high of $6.98 but failed to conquer the $7 level. Profit taking gradually outweighed the buying, leading the metal back to $6.85 where the market closed the day. Interest overnight has been slow but despite Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showing a small 4m/ozs reduction in the speculative net position to 217.7m/ozs silver is likely to find $7 a tough nut to crack unless gold really breaks higher.


    Platinum continued to see a reversal of last weeks early gains as Asian players forced a test of the $845 support. The white metal spent the rest of the day consolidating between $845-55 and has remained within Friday’s trading range so far today after closing the week at $853. Platinum should continue to perform more strongly than sister metal palladium over the coming weeks but the metal may see consolidation back to $825 should the $845 level fail to hold.


    Palladium managed to edge above the $220 resistance level over the course of Friday and has held just above the key level so far today but the sustainability of this rise remains to be seen.


    James Moore
    TheBullionDesk.com


    Tel : 01799 516956 / 01536 483063
    jimmy@thebulliondesk.com


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    http://www.heraldsun.news.com.…78,10532397%5E664,00.html


    Gold prices high but Australian output low


    23aug04


    AS GOLD'S allure as a safe-haven investment brightens, Australian gold miners have recorded abnormally low output for a second successive quarter, a survey has found.


    They produced 63 tonnes of gold, or two million ounces, in the June 2004 quarter, down 1.5 tonnes on the March 2004 quarter and falling 12 tonnes over the June 2003 quarter.
    The survey, by Melbourne consulting group Surbiton Associates, says gold production for 2003-04 was 274 tonnes, or 8.8 million ounces, down 4 per cent on 2002-03.


    The results come as the precious metal's attraction increases.


    Gold futures surged to a four-month peak in the US on Friday when December gold lifted $US6.20 to $US415 an ounce as record high crude oil prices and inflation fears drew investors to the safe-haven asset.


    However, Surbiton managing director Sandra Close said the Australian downturn should only be temporary.


    "The last two quarters have suffered the double whammy of fewer tonnes treated and lower ore grades," Dr Close said.


    "Despite this, the downturn should only be temporary and the overall production trend is still upwards in the medium term."


    Surbiton said Australian March gold quarter production was shrunk by exceptionally wet weather which hampered operations earlier in the year.


    It picked up in the June quarter, in terms of tonnage treated, but output was affected by lower gold grades in the ore.


    "Many producers have had to treat lower grade stockpiles in order to keep their processing plants running," Dr Close said.


    Newmont Mining Corp's Pajingo operation in north Queensland, and Barrick Gold Corp's Plutonic underground mine in Western Australia both experienced difficult ground conditions, which limited normal ore production.


    Canada-based global mining giant Placer Dome's Kalgoorlie West operation suffered a reduction in ore sources due to changes in its production scheduling. Its nearby Kanowna Belle operation had delays in processing due to higher sulphur content in the ore.


    Dr Close said the lower production was also partly caused by the treatment of lower grade stockpiles at some operations and to plant closures at a couple of operations.


    Despite the overall poor result, some operations recorded a significant lift in production for the June quarter.


    "Both Newcrest's Cadia operation (in NSW) and Giants Reef's Chariot mine (in the Northern Territory) lifted production by around 50 per cent," Dr Close said.


    "Even better was Placer Dome's Henty mine in Tasmania where gold production increased by over 60 per cent to a record 51,425 ounces."


    She said the production slowdown should only be temporary with higher grade ore set to be treated and an additional 30 tonnes a year, or one million ounces, due to be commissioned by the end of 2004 or early 2005.


    The top producer in the June 2004 quarter was the world's largest gold miner, US-based Newmont Mining Corp, which churned out 152,300 ounces at Tanami and Groundrush in Western Australia, and 206,232 ounces from its 50-50 joint venture with Canada-based Barrick Gold Corp at Kalgoorlie, WA.


    South African miner Gold Fields produced 143,650 ounces at St Ives, in WA; Melbourne-based Newcrest Mining made 109,201 ounces at Ridgeway, about 20 kilometres south-west of Orange in NSW; and South Africa-based AngloGold Ashanti recorded 96,710 ounces at Sunrise Dam.


    AAP

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