Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    ThaiGuru,


    dass es mit dem jetztigen Geldsystem nicht geht, leuchtet mir ein. Aber es wird irgendwann ein anderes Geldsystem geben, und dann sollte man gleich über die Abschaffung der Zinsen nachdenken. Zinsen gab es ja nicht schon immer. Zinsen widersprechen auch dem natürlichen Wachstum, weshalb sie für uns Menschen schwer zu verstehen sind.


    Wie du selber anmerkst, sind Zinsen "in sich gesehen selbstzerstörend, und zumeist höchst unfair, trügerisch, und vielfach auch noch völlig unproduktiv." Das spricht doch dafür, Zinsen erst gar nicht zu erheben. Es spircht ja nichts gegen eine Gebühr, die von den Banken erhoben wird, wenn ein Kredit vergeben wird. Diese Gebühr könnte aber erheblich unter dem Zins liegen und würde auch nicht wie der Zins durch Zinseszins dazu führen, dass die ausgeliehene Geldmenge ständig anwächst. Es wäre viel leichter zu kalkulieren, wenn man nicht ständig diese Zinseszinsgeschichet beachten muss.
    Für die Leute, die viel Geld haben, würde sich außerdem nichts ändern. Sie hätten genausoviel Geld wie vorher, müssten aber, um mehr Geld einzunehmen, dafür arbeiten.
    Überdies steckt in allen Waren der Zins als Preis, und dieser soll laut Kennedy ca. 30-50 % ausmachen. Jeder muss also Zinsen bezahlen, auch wenn er sich nicht verschuldet. Ohne Zins könnte man die Waren billiger machen.
    Ohne Verzinsung würde man sein Geld auch nicht einfach so auf dem Konto lassen, sondern eher dazu bereit sein, in werthaltige Güter zu investieren, was zugegegebnermaßen in der heutigen Zeit des Wegwerfkonsums für viele Menschen etwas Neues wäre.


    Abschließend möchte ich darauf hinweisen, dass Margrit Kennedy neben der Abschaffung der Zinsen noch eine Boden- und Steuerreform als weitere Maßnahmen fordert.
    Ich gebe ja zu, dass diese Gedanken utopisch klingen und in einer Gesellschaft, wie sie derzeit exisitiert, nicht realisierbar sind. Deshalb kann man nur hoffen, dass es zu einem baldigen und schnellen Ende dieses Geldsystems kommt und danach ein System installiert wird, dass nicht daran gemessen wird, um wie viel Prozent es jährlich quantitativ wächst, sondern daran, um wie viel sich der Lebensstandard verbessert hat.


    Grüße


    extrel

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://ad22.vhb.de/hbi/images/logo.gif]


    http://www.handelsblatt.com/hb…ID/PAGE_203855/index.html


    Warten auf Sitzung der US-Notenbank Fed

    Gold notiert etwas fester

    Am Ende einer grösstenteils richtungslosen Handelswoche hat Gold im europäischen Handel zugelegt.


    HB LONDON. Der am Donnerstagabend wesentlich schwächer als erwartet ausgefallene Konjunkturindex der Federal Reserve von Philadelphia habe den Dollar in Mitleidenschaft gezogen und Gold klettern lassen, sagten Händler.


    Gold stand zum Handelsschluss bei 404,50/405,30 Dollar nach 402,95/403,70 Dollar am Vorabend. Das zweite Fixing in London erfolgte bei 405,60 Dollar, nach 404,60 Dollar am Vormittag und 403,40 Dollar am Mittwochnachmittag. Der am Freitag veröffentlichte Verbrauchervertrauensindex der Universität Michigan für September stieg nicht wie von Experten erwartet leicht an, sondern verharrte ungefähr auf dem Vormonatswert. Am Goldmarkt blieb dies ohne nennenswerte Auswirkungen.


    Das Handelsgeschehen werde bis zur nächsten Sitzung der US-Notenbank Fed am Dienstag eher abwartend bleiben, so Händler. Eine Anhebung des US-Leitzinses um 25 Basispunkte auf 1,75 Prozent gelte als ausgemacht, doch bleibe das weitere Zins-Tempo fraglich. Eine Anhebung des Leitzinses verteuert über einen typischerweise anziehenden Dollar-Kurs das in der US-Währung gehandelte Gold für Anleger aus Fremdwährungsländern.


    Bis zur Fed-Entscheidung werde Gold sich voraussichtlich in der Bandbreite von 400 bis 408 Dollar bewegen, sagte ein Händler.



    HANDELSBLATT, Freitag, 17. September 2004, 17:48 Uhr

    Nicht vorzustellen was alles passieren könnte, wenn die FED ihre Graphiken, oder die Bildzeitung, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Barrick, JPM, etc. ihre Fotos präparieren würde, die ich oder andere User hier in den Thread reinstellen, und auf dem Computer abspeichere.


    Microsoft bezeichnet diese Sicherheitslücke als gravierend!!!


    Hab die Sicherheitslücke gerade geschlossen.


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://ad08.vhb.de/wiworlzr/images/logo.gif]


    http://www.wiwo.de/pswiwo/fn/w…2/SH/0/depot/0/index.html


    Microsoft weist auf eine Sicherheitslücke hin


    Digitale Fotos machen Rechner unsicher


    In seinem monatlichen Sicherheitsbericht weist Microsoft auf eine Sicherheitslücke hin, die Hacker mit Hilfe von Bilddateien nutzen könnten.


    Diese könnten über einen schädlichen Code, der in einer JPEG-Datei versteckt ist, die Kontrolle über den Rechner übernehmen.Von der Schwachstelle sind neben Windows auch zahlreiche Anwendungsprogramme wie Office und Visual Studio betroffen.


    Der Konzern stellt unter www-microsoft-com ein Reparaturprogramm zur Verfügung.

    extrel, vieleicht kannst du ja mal einen eigenen Thread zum Thema Zinsen aufmachen, hier geht das Thema möglicherweise schnell unter.


    Kurz: bei einer Edelmetallgedeckten Währung wäre die Inflation bei~null.
    Damit könnte man auch auf Zinsen verzichten.


    Glück auf

    darkjedi,


    eine goldgedeckte währung würde zwar eine inflation ausschliessen,aber kredite sind nun mal immer auch mit einem wagniss verbunden,und dieses würde sich jeder verleiher von krediten auch entsprechend bezahlen lassen.könnte mir sogar vorstellen,dass die zinsen dann noch wesentlich höher wären.wie würdest du denn das risiko eines verlustes ausschliessen wollen.


    grüsse


    kalle

    Kommentar von Michael Vaupel


    Ich sage nur: Silber! Wenn Sie den Trader's Daily bereits länger lesen, dann wissen Sie ja, dass ich Silber-Anhänger bin. Nicht nur, dass mir Silberschmuck bei Frauen besser als Goldschmuck gefällt. Mit Silber lässt sich aktuell auch leichter traden als mit Gold (denn der Goldpreis klebt weiter mehr oder weniger an der Marke von 400 fest). Der Silberpreis hingegen ist schön volatil, mit Kursbewegungen, auf die das Adjektiv "dramatisch" durchaus passt. Als Kaufzielmarke habe
    ich immer Kurse um 6,00 Dollar bezeichnet.


    Als der Silberpreis mehr als 10 % über dieser Marke stand, habe ich nicht mehr gekauft und "Abwarten" gepredigt. Denn wenn der Silberpreis korrigiert, dann kracht es meist ordentlich. So auch in den letzten Tagen und Wochen - denn die 6 Dollar wurden gestern im Tagesverlauf erreicht.


    Ich kann Ihnen nur raten, ebenfalls einzusteigen, wenn der Silberpreis bei 6 Dollar steht! Aber bitte nur mit Zertifikaten mit ausreichender Laufzeit. Denn eins ist (so gut wie) sicher: Der Silberpreis muss einfach wieder steigen (die Nachfrage liegt über Angebot, neue Produktionsstätten können nicht schnell erschlossen werden ...). Nur das "wann" ist die große Unbekannte.


    Keine Frage, dass mir Rohstoffe derzeit am meisten Spaß machen, wenn es um's Traden geht!


    Und gerade die Korrekturen, die wir in den letzten Wochen bei Werten wie Silber und Palladium gesehen haben, bieten wieder sehr schöne Chancen auf der LONG-Seite. Sowohl mit schnellen Trades mit Hebel-Zertifikaten (wie gerade beim Silber) als auch mit strategischen Bonus-Zertifikaten. Hier meine Dauerempfehlung das Rohstoff-Bonus-Zertifikat von Sal. Oppenheim, WKN SAL1AG bzw. ISIN DE000SAL1AG8. Leider bezeichnet der Emittent dieses Zertifikat gerade als "ausverkauft" und liefert keine neuen Stücke mehr. Sie können Ihr Glück aber trotzdem versuchen - denn vielleicht findet sich ja auch am freien Markt Material (wie üblich: Börsenplatz Stuttgart = Euwax).


    Michael Vaupel ist Autor des kostenlosen Newsletters "Trader's Daily".


    Quelle: http://www.instock.de, v. 14.9.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    September 17 - Gold $405.60 up $1.10 – Silver $6.23 down 3 cents


    Do You Know What Kind Of Day It Was?


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/groundhog.jpg]


    GROUNDHOG DAY!


    Zitat

    We need only take our heads out of the sand to see clearly that interventionism not only has failed to provide the promised something-for-nothing, but has led to all sorts of undesirable consequences. Indeed, many are just beginning to realize that we are moving towards disaster even though we have been on a wrong heading for decades....Leonard Read


    GO GATA


    It was a day like so many others we have seen over the years until late in the trading session. Gold caught a bid early, moving up nearly $1. Then it was capped (in GROUNDHOG DAY-like fashion) by the cabal and sent $1.50 lower from last night’s close, before it made it all the way back and closed on its highs. The floor said if gold was open another hour, it would have taken off. As a result, they are looking for a very positive day on Monday.


    All I had to write last night was that silver was explosive for it to be hit hard early this morning. It was hit for a dime before recovering to right below the unchanged area.


    I received a phone call from a very knowledgeable precious metals man who queried me on my London silver premium information. He said there is unallocated silver in New York and he couldn’t see the tightness my sources reported. He also mentioned there was nothing going on with the lease rates. My response covered the following:


    *Our London source is a real pro and veteran silver dealer.


    *The last time silver made its big move to $8.46, this is the kind of information I received. The same sort of ambiguity was seen back then too. In advance of that move, Café sources reported incredible tightness, especially in Europe. Other sources said they saw none at all. Silver rallied $3, then crashed. A hard market to figure.


    *The lease rates didn’t do anything the last time silver made its big move either.


    *The Comex inventories could be the key here. They have come down around 10% to a little below 110 million ounces. If they go below 100 million ounces, it would tend to support the notion silver is becoming very tight all around.


    For the week both gold and silver moved higher and look fine technically:


    December gold


    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C4


    December silver


    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/94


    Houston’s Dan Norcini:


    Hey Bill:

    Just wanted to make a quick comment about the Open Interest and Commitments of Traders as it relates specifically to Silver.


    We are approaching levels in the net fund long category where for the last year Silver has put in a bottom before moving up. I would actually prefer to see more of this whittling down of open interest totals as we have been seeing taking place these last three weeks or so. The perfect scenario to me would be for silver to chop around at these levels for another week or so and slowly bleed off another 2,000-3,000 contracts on that fund net long position. If however what your sources are telling you about difficulty in obtaining silver in quantity is true, we may not get down that low. It does seem to have uncovered buying on its breaks this week.


    I know a lot of silver bulls would prefer to see it head straight north to Alaska from right here, but I think we would be better served by the former scenario. That would lull the complacent shorts into carelessness and might even induce a few more of them to move over to the short side providing more fuel for the fire when it does ignite.


    Still, we have really whittled down that net fund long position from the recent peak last month and that is significant. It has almost been cut in half. Furthermore, it is WAY, WAY DOWN from the peak made at the beginning of April this year.


    Here's looking forward to next week.

    Dan


    Gold is used as a monetary reserve by many countries. None more so than the US. This certainly qualifies gold be labeled as a currency. With this understanding, it will be very easy to understand how and why the gold price is constantly manipulated after you read the following:


    Bill,


    I don’t know if GATA has covered this before. When people like Gartman say the Fed doesn’t intervene in markets, this is proof to the contrary. Here are Fed Minutes from February 2000 giving Greenspan authority to intervene in the currency markets. What is interesting to me is this is proof Greenspan speaks with a forked tongue. He continually claims in public that the dollar is the Treasury’s responsibility; yet, for some reason he needed authority to intervene in these markets. All gold traders can routinely watch gold break out and moments later the Euro get bombed. Obviously, Gold breaking out on the charts can be interpreted as a disorderly market condition if it is counter to Fed Policy.


    http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/minutes/20000202.htm


    FOREIGN CURRENCY DIRECTIVE


    System operations in foreign currencies shall generally be directed at countering disorderly market conditions, provided that market exchange rates for the U.S. dollar reflect actions and behavior consistent with the IMF Article IV, Section 1.


    To achieve this end the System shall:


    A. Undertake spot and forward purchases and sales of foreign exchange.

    B. Maintain reciprocal currency ("swap") arrangements with selected foreign central banks.


    C. Cooperate in other respects with central banks of other countries and with international monetary institutions.


    Transactions may also be undertaken:


    A. To adjust System balances in light of probable future needs for currencies.


    B. To provide means for meeting System and Treasury commitments in particular currencies and to facilitate operations of the Exchange Stabilization Fund.


    C. For such other purposes as may be expressly authorized by the Committee.


    System foreign currency operations shall be conducted:


    A. In close and continuous consultation and cooperation with the United States Treasury;

    B. In cooperation, as appropriate, with foreign monetary authorities; and

    C. In a manner consistent with the obligations of the United States in the International Monetary Fund regarding exchange arrangements under the IMF Article IV.


    Mr. Broaddus dissented in the votes on the Authorization and the Directive because they provide the foundation for foreign exchange market intervention. He continued to believe that the Federal Reserve's participation in foreign exchange market intervention compromises its ability to conduct monetary policy effectively. Because sterilized intervention cannot have sustained effects in the absence of conforming monetary policy actions, Federal Reserve participation in foreign exchange operations in his view risks one of two undesirable outcomes. First, the independence of monetary policy is jeopardized if the System adjusts its policy actions to support short-term foreign exchange objectives set by the U.S. Treasury. Alternatively, the credibility of monetary policy is damaged if the System does not follow interventions with compatible policy actions, the interventions consequently fail to achieve their objectives, and the System is associated in the mind of the public with the failed operations.


    ***

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    The John Brimelow Report


    some new commentaries


    Friday, September 17, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.34, PM $6.61, with world gold at $404.10 and $404.80. Very high; lavish for legal imports.


    Apparently the currency weakened this afternoon on concerns about the Trade balance. Indian exports today were reported today to be up 26% FY to date; Imports were up 30%. This is quite irrelevant of course to a country with such a pronounced ability to attract funds via foreign portfolio investment, or indeed via repatriation from overseas Indians. India is likely to continue to support world gold at these prices.


    TOCOM is fast asleep. Volume fell 3.4% to the equivalent of 9,496 Comex lots; open interest slipped the equivalent of 312 Comex; the active contact was down 5 yen and world gold was unchanged. (Yesterday Comex traded 31,553 lots; open interest fell 1,634 contacts.)


    Gold seems to have no momentum either way at present. One wonders if, in a situation where the Muslim buyer is so much more important than a few years ago, the run up to the weekend might not be more sluggish than in previous years.


    Chet Currier, a Bloomberg columnist, has written a piece discussing gold’s unresponsiveness this year to rising inflation expectations. (See Appendix)


    Since it is rare to see any consciousness of gold on Bloomberg, the metal’s friends will see this as gratifying.


    JB

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    CARTEL CAPITULTATION WATCH


    Crude oil seems to be the only market with any kind of serious volatility. Course, that is the one market the PPT has a hard time influencing. October closed at $45.59 per barrel, up $1.71.


    The long bonds fell 17/32, giving back around half of yesterday’s surge. The dollar rose .11 to 89.10, while the euro lost .06 to 121.76. No matter how bad the news is the DOW just keeps on creeping higher. It rose 40 to 10,284 and the DOG gained 6 to 1910.


    Bottom line:


    GROUNDHOG DAY! Seems like lockdown/prop up mode is the name of the game these days. The US stock market continues to grind higher with very little going for it except the PPT and the roar of the repos. Long rates slowly keep coming down with constant, but brief, corrections. Yet, the Fed has been raising rates and most market participants expect them to do so again next week. The dollar has been held in a vice-like trading range and, while the price of gold should be soaring, it is continually capped by The Gold Cartel.


    None of the US economic news is upbeat. The effects of low short-term interest rates, tax cuts and government fiscal stimulus have run their course and it is showing.


    Semi equipment book/bill ratio 1.00 in August vs StreetAccount consensus of 1.01


    The July ratio of 1.05 was revised to 1.04. The three month moving average of bookings fell (4.5%) to $1.515B vs a $1.56B consensus; billings fell (1.2%) to $1.509B vs a $1.54B consensus.
    * * * * *


    09:48 Univ. of Michigan confidence reported 95.8 vs. consensus 96.7
    August final reading was 95.9.
    * * * * *


    What does make a lot of sense is there is much more inflation in the US economic system (can it be any more obvious) than Wall Street and Washington are admitting to. Thus the behind the eight ball Fed is raising rates. However, the real economy is on the wane, which the long-bond seems to be reflecting. Meanwhile the consumer debt levels remain staggering as are all the various US deficits.


    One can liken the present economic situation to a Pro Football team which traded its future top draft picks to another team for a bunch of quality aging veterans in order to try and win the Super Bowl. In this case it is the coming elections in November. Perhaps the trades (low rates, tax cuts, government stimulus and efforts by the PPT) will do the trick and lead to a win this Presidential Election Super Bowl. Time will tell. However, these veterans have had their day. They won’t be around next year and there is little talent coming up to take their place. My bet is the US economic scenario will be a dreadful one next year and will wreak havoc on US financial markets.


    GATA’s Mike Bolser:


    Hi Bill:


    The Federal Reserve added $5.25 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements today September 17th 2004, an action that pushed the repo pool up to $65.614 Billion, yet another high for the series. The pool's pattern is in a parabolic upward trajectory and is far from its 30-day moving average.


    Yesterday's huge add of $26.05 Billion including a $.8 Billion permanent open market operation, was done for a "monetary policy" reason and we can say the DOW wasn't the main target or else it would have responded upward instead of laying there like a limp fish. All of this trading guess work would be easy if the government managed transparent markets...but they don't so we keep guessing how their strategic commodities plan is faring. With $43 oil, it isn't going well at all and the government's oil derivative shorting efforts are having tough sledding.


    Oil prices up on new storm fears


    http://www.news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3661424.stm


    Hurricane Ivan has forced the closure of several US refineries Oil prices rose on Thursday on worries over production shut by Hurricane Ivan and a new storm that may delay imports from entering the Gulf of Mexico.


    Ivan shut eight refineries, or about 13% of US capacity, and only half restarted during the day.


    Oil companies said they would not know if platforms had sustained damage until aircraft could fly over the structures.


    END
    ++++++++++++++++++++++


    I focus on oil as well as gold because it is more visible than gold as a strategic commodity and there are far less available storage stocks. The BIS derivatives position is even more clouded than gold. For example, the BIS keeps the petroleum data in a bin marked "other" so as to keep from presenting the blatant truth of a massive derivatives game with the word "Oil" written at the page header. The total was over $450 Billion last report. One might generate a useful trading metric by gauging only the velocity of petroleum derivatives growth if you had access to real-time derivatives summary data from the ISDA (International Swaps and Derivatives Assn.)


    On the other hand, hanging on OPEC's every public word about "increased production" isn't healthy either if you expect tradable information. Here's another example:


    Traders Unmoved by OPEC Gesture


    By Justin Blum, Washington Post, Thu, Sep 16, 2004
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp...Sep15.html


    VIENNA, Sept. 15 -- OPEC ministers on Wednesday agreed to increase their ceiling for oil production to help bring down stubbornly high prices in a decision that traders and analysts dismissed as symbolic because the cartel already is pumping more than its new target.


    In a meeting at its headquarters here, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries set a ceiling of 27 million barrels a day effective in November, an increase of 1 million barrels.


    The decision will not affect how many barrels of oil the cartel's member countries actually produce. OPEC's 11 members are pumping about 30 million barrels a day in an effort to keep prices down, officials said.


    OPEC's president, Purnomo Yusgiantoro, said he hoped that increasing the ceiling would have a psychological impact on the market, helping calm worries about supply. "What we would like to see is the prices down," Yusgiantoro, the minister of energy and mineral resources for Indonesia, said at a news conference after the meeting. END
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


    Special Note: October 4th and the Washington Agreement


    One of my precious metals metrics points to a convergence of the WA date of Oct 4th and its former peak value on July 2nd 2004. I don't like coincidences in today's gold war. We have a bit more than two weeks of trading and as we get closer to Friday the 1rst of October I will re-assess this apparent convergence to see if it still exists. If it does, I may recommend folks step aside on Oct 1 and wait out the WA formal decision, avoiding any planned surprises.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


    One of the central goals of China is to invade the EU with Wall Marts just as they did in the US. This is why the Chinese have steadfastly refused to raise the Yuan's valuation. They see the dollar falling and the Yaun getting even more competitive in the EU. The Chinese are even getting a head start in Russia:


    Friday, September 17, 2004.


    Report: Wal-Mart to Open in St. Pete in '05


    By Simon Ostrovsky Staff Writer Moscow Times



    Wal-Mart, the world's largest company, may open a store in St. Petersburg next year, a city official said Thursday, Interfax reported.


    "I have such information, but I'm not ready to talk more in detail about the opening of Wal-Mart," the chairman of St. Petersburg's economic development committee, Vladimir Blank, was quoted as saying.


    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


    The current DIVG trend is up and this should hold for at least two weeks however, as mentioned previously, Fridays bring an added data set and I may have more comments later on in the day. Looking only at the unrefined data the MCDI seems up along with the PM Fix so the trend looks OK at this hour (10AM).


    Mike


    Chuck checks in:


    We might as well go to a movie for the rest of the day. The capping came early and a $2 reversal should do it on a typical Friday where the stock market is trying to fill the gap from the other day. Third straight gap down on Newmont (positive) The ratio between Au and Ag expanding (positive.) I just wonder if we might not have a decent day in the stocks vs. the metal, but I'm not expecting anything very much. "free markets" in America. Chuck


    There are more reasons for featuring our Groundhog buddy, Punxy, for the day! Seems we can’t get through a 24-hour period without one of the cabal members being chastised/ penalized in some part of the world and without being confronted with some sort of conspiracy scandal….


    Japan FSA orders Citibank to suspend private banking


    By Lisa Twaronite 9/17/2004 12:07:00 PM


    http://www.investors.com/break…?journalid=23142237&brk=1


    TOKYO (CBS.MW) - Japan's Financial Services Agency on Friday ordered Citibank Japan to suspend business operations at four branches that deal with private banking, essentially discontinuing the bank's private banking business here, after the bank was found to have breached securities regulations.


    The regulator said in a statement that the Japanese arm of the financial services giant Citigroup (C) must suspend operations at its branches in Marunouchi branch in Tokyo, and its Nagoya, Osaka and Fukuoka branches for one year beginning September 29.


    The FSA said that after the suspension ends, it would revoke the approvals issued to those branches, essentially terminating the bank's private banking business.


    -END-


    Citigroup, a defendant in Reg Howe’s lawsuit against The Gold Cartel in Boston Federal Court, was recently vilified for its European bond trading, and now for its fine work in Japan.


    A Café member has a point:


    Bill,

    We should get similar laws passed before the Cabal is found out by the general public.


    Dan C


    Chinese bankers executed for fraud


    September 16, 2004


    China's government executed three officials from state-owned lenders China Construction Bank and Bank of China for fraud resulting in losses of $15 million (R97 million), the Xinhua news agency reported.


    Liang Shihan, an official at the Bank of China, was executed after he faked letters of credit, causing the bank to lose $10.3 million, according to the state news agency.


    -END-


    Report: Former Boeing manager agrees to plead guilty in conspiracy case


    Friday September 17, 2004

    LOS ANGELES (AP) A former Boeing Co. manager has reportedly agreed to plead guilty to charges related to the theft of sensitive documents from rival Lockheed Martin Corp. during a competition for a $1.88 billion satellite launching contract.


    No documents have been filed in a Los Angeles federal district court but sources told the Wall Street Journal that an agreement has been reached between prosecutors and the former executive, Kenneth Branch. The plea bargain could strengthen the government's position in negotiating a corporate settlement with Boeing, the newspaper reported in its Friday editions.


    Calls to the U.S. attorney's office in Los Angeles and Boeing headquarters in Chicago seeking comment were not immediately returned.


    Branch is scheduled to go on trial in less than a month for allegedly conspiring to steal and pass sensitive documents to help Boeing win a multibillion-dollar competition for the U.S. Air Force's rocket-launch business in the fall of 1998.


    -END-


    Perhaps the most disheartening news of the day news was the National Intelligence news on Iraq. Putting politics aside, to hear President Bush and the Republicans extol what they have done in Iraq, while it is going to go down as the biggest blunder in our nation’s history, is sickening – mostly because 7,000 brave US soldiers have died, been maimed or are wounded. For what?


    WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The Bush administration has sought to downplay the significance of a U.S. intelligence forecast painting a pessimistic picture for the future of Iraq, insisting that predictions of difficulties ahead -- including the possibility of civil war -- were not a surprise.


    Sources have confirmed to CNN that a National Intelligence Estimate was sent to the White House in July with a classified warning predicting the best case for Iraq was "tenuous stability" and the worst case was civil war.


    The Bush administration, however, continues to argue publicly the U.S. is making good progress in Iraq, with the President saying Thursday that "freedom is on the march" in Iraq, citing scheduled elections in January next year.


    But the intelligence report raises serious questions about Iraq's ability to achieve political solutions in the next year or two, noting the country's "limited experience with representative government" and "history of violence".


    U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, in a report to the U.N. Security Council last week, said the persistent violence in Iraq would make it difficult to hold elections in January.


    "I think that anybody that thinks that you can hold elections in the Sunni Triangle by the end of January is really smoking something," military historian Frank Fukuyama said…


    -END-


    This is what has gone so wrong with Wall Street and Washington, Democrats and Republicans. The American people get spin after spin, lies after lies. What a disaster our country has ahead of us when there is no other choice except to pay the piper.


    A little more fodder for our view of the way the US markets are working these days:


    Bill,


    I just finished reading an article in the WSJ page A2 titled, "Fed Says Straight Talk on Rates Helped the U.S. Avert Deflation." What caught my eye was a paragraph discussing a study by the infamous Ben Bernanke which states, "The study also concluded that the Fed could purchase Treasury bonds specifically to drive down long-term interest rates."


    Well there you have it! Let’s make sure that every doubter of Government/Fed intervention in markets gets this "stamped" across the forehead!


    Regards,
    Wistar


    The major gold companies seem to be all having their troubles these days. The gold prices are just way too low.


    RENO (Mineweb.com) -- Even as Barrick president and CEO, Greg Wilkins, was extolling his company's "A"-rated balance sheet and its ability to self-finance its projects to a Toronto mining conference on Thursday, Moody's Investors Service said that it is reviewing the company's debt ratings for possible downgrade.


    Moody's said its review "is prompted by the fact that the company is embarking on a major mining development program to add production and to lower costs from a platform that currently has higher costs and lower production than was historically the case." Barrick's plans to develop five new mines while reducing its hedging position have prompted lively discussion among investors and analysts. –END-


    JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- Uncertainties over near-term trends in the rand:dollar exchange rate and the effects of the South African currency’s recent strength on rand-denominated gold revenues have persuaded Fitch Ratings to cut its outlook rating of AngloGold Ashanti (AGA) to negative from stable.


    The decline reflects the deteriorating income stream of the past four quarters and takes into account the benefit of AngloGold’s merger with the Ghanaian Ashanti. –END-


    Missed this one – guess it is a coincidence that trading will most likely begin after the Presidential election.


    ETFZone.com


    Gold ETF Confirmed by SEC


    Monday September 13, 4:47 pm ET


    By ETFzone Staff


    Despite lengthy delay, the SEC recently confirmed that a gold ETF is on its way. Expected to be sold under the streetTracks ETF line from State Street, it appears likely to begin trading before year's end. ETF investors shouldsoon decide whether gold belongs in their portfolio.


    -END-


    From Brother Tim, the technician:


    Hey Bill, Another frustrating week for gold, given the bullish fundamentals, but the technical picture remains strong. Gold broke out of a weekly head and shoulders formation last month and tested the neckline last week. Now it looks poised to move higher again with the upside objective still at $455.


    Swiss America is offering a free DVD called "The Citizen's Guide To Counter Terrorism". It covers many methods of terrorism - from chemical to biological to financial. From the standpoint of financial terrorism, gold is discussed as a form of protection. The DVD is 30 minutes long, well worth the viewing effort and is available to any of your readers who just need to contact me.


    Let's hope gold continues higher next week, as it should.


    Brother Tim


    Swiss America
    1-800-289-2646 ext 1019
    trmurphy@swissamerica.com

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    CARTEL CAPITULTATION WATCH


    This effort by Garic probably should have been a stand-alone. Lot of meat here:


    Bill,


    While GATA has done a great job on exposing gold price manipulation, I would like to see you work harder on educating the gold bulls on how to stop getting burned by the crooks. After trading other commodities and stocks for the past 20 years I have had to re educate myself on how to trade and invest in the gold market. This necessity to re educate myself on one particular market is all the proof I need to know the Gold market is rigged. Being around the markets for a long time I am fully aware that all Wall Street bogus creations come to an end sooner or later. Worldcom, Enron etc. Therefore, I eagerly await the demise of J.P. Morgan when this one comes to an end. I am also eagerly awaiting the Comptroller’s 2nd quarter derivative report which is conveniently delayed to see how much J.P. Morgan had to short to keep the 430 break out from occurring. http://www.occ.treas.gov/deriv/deriv.htm . I am also hopeful that my home town judge in New Orleans will take it to them in Blanchard vs J.P. Morgan.


    Here is what I have learned:


    Do not buy breakouts. Someone is monitoring the markets and breakouts are generally met with a quick reversal in the currency markets. http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/minutes/20000202.htm


    FOREIGN CURRENCY DIRECTIVE


    System operations in foreign currencies shall generally be directed at countering disorderly market conditions, provided that market exchange rates for the U.S. dollar reflect actions and behavior consistent with the IMF Article IV, Section 1.


    Traders who are used to buying break outs need to know that this is exactly what the manipulators are looking to get rid of is the momentum traders. If one feels he must buy a break out you need to be able to withstand a forced liquidation below the moving averages. Unfortunately, if you are a true believer you can’t sell breakouts either. One of the breakouts is going to be the big one and if anybody is smart enough to figure out which one it is they are better than me.


    The Cartel likes to paint the opening for stocks; therefore, they generally have gold for sale between 4 A.M. and 10 A.M. E.S.T. The best time to accumulate gold is between 9:30 and 10 A.M. because they are always trying to paint the opening for stocks.


    The cartel always tries to glorify the government statistics and especially Alan Greenspan speeches. For example, after every government report gold will be sold aggressively by someone. Generally on news they let the traders buy and then between 5 and 30 minutes after the report they will sell gold aggressively. They will back off and attempt to come again. Give it time they are relentless. If Double Bubble Al is speaking expect gold to be sold from 1 hour before the speech up until 24 hours after the speech. The great wizard of Oz has spoken there is no inflation you better believe it.


    Dan Norcini’s recent article did a good job on showing how they are manipulating the moving average funds.


    The goal is to make sure you can keep your position. The key is not getting over leveraged and not having obvious stops that you are going to get knocked out of on one of there bombing raids. If you must keep tight stops your position is probably too large.


    Let’s learn from the Citicorp trading exposure. They love bombing the market running stops forcing the moving average traders out and buying back slowly at lower levels. Stops below recent lows will be taken out and the profits will be put in their pockets.


    For me I am going to be long until Real Interest Rates are restored to a level where I can save for my retirement and my children’s education .This real rate will be determined by my costs of tuition, health care, housing, grocery and energy bills not what Double Bubble Al tells me they are.


    In the end the real way to make sure they can’t get you is to take physical delivery of U.S. Gold Eagles. That is a vote against the U.S. Treasury. They will hear it loud and clear because they don’t have enough to pay everyone. They have broken the constitution and as a Free Person you have the right to cash in your paper.


    If you must trade the futures which I do you don’t trade on the news but accumulate when they bomb the market and run the stops and the moving averages. If you carry a fully margined position there goal will be to take your money and make you a believer that the market is smarter than you. Do your research if you believe that Gold is worth $710 to $2800 them buy and hold with enough room to withstand their raids.


    Garic Moran
    Atlanta, Ga.


    The gold shares continue to meander with the XAU losing .86 to 92.31 and the HUI dropping 1.16 to 204.97. Much of the loss in each index was due to Newmont taking a hit for its troubles in Peru.


    The fundamentals for both gold and silver remain outstanding. So do the technicals. The physical gold market is robust and we are hearing the same for silver, at least as far as Europe is concerned. The base in gold is an expanded one and can support a move to much higher levels. Seems to me we need a $3 higher gap opening with demand kicking in enough around the world to send The Gold Cartel into a backpedaling retreat. Could happen any day.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS


    Appendix


    GATA couldn’t have asked for a better article than this Bloomberg one to point out a major motive of The Gold Cartel. PRICE ACTION MAKES MARKET COMMENTARY. Thanks Chet Currier. Course this writer, who knows nothing about gold, wouldn’t even think to mention that perhaps gold isn’t acting like it used to because the price is being manipulated. A Bloomberg gold reporter still on the beat was introduced to myself and GATA at a luncheon in New York in June 1999. To this day GATA has never been mentioned by Bloomberg, not ONCE!


    Have Gold Traders Stopped Watching Inflation?: Chet Currier


    Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- There must be a lawsuit in this somewhere -- breach of promise, or false advertising, or maybe dereliction of duty.


    Gold, long touted as investors' ultimate guard against inflation, has wandered away from its post and can no longer be counted on to fulfill that high obligation.


    Its performance of these duties has been problematic for some time. Market action in early September only confirmed our worst suspicions.


    ``Gold prices in New York rose as an unexpected decline in U.S. producer prices helped send the dollar lower,'' a Bloomberg News story reported on Friday, Sept. 10.


    Let's take this step-by-step. The government reported that producer prices excluding food and energy dropped 0.1 percent in August. That's good inflation news, by any reasonable standard. Since the price of gold traditionally rises and falls with inflation, it ought to have declined.


    Not this time. Seems that a better-than-expected signal on inflation caused traders to scale back expectations of how much the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates. Lower U.S. interest rates imply less international demand for dollar- denominated bonds. So the dollar declined in value against other currencies such as the euro.


    Forex Foray


    This tells us where gold has gone -- the foreign exchange markets, where it has taken up the role of the anti-dollar. Dollar weak, gold strong, and vice versa.


    Some will say this isn't a complete departure. Inflation, after all, is a problem that afflicts currencies, attacking their purchasing power -- so gold is still hanging out in the same neighborhood.


    Something has changed, though, and that something is a basic relationship most investors once assumed to be permanent. Gold has now put us on notice not to take it for granted as a simple inflation hedge.


    Consider that sector mutual funds specializing in precious metals have fallen 17.1 percent for 2004 to date through the middle of this week, even as inflation expectations have risen. In Bloomberg News's monthly survey of more than 50 economists, the average estimate for the increase in the consumer price index this year is now 2.8 percent, up from 1.8 percent the first week of January.


    All Shook Up


    This is unsettling because one of gold's supposed selling points is its solidity. So much about it, from its namesake color to its place at No. 79 in the periodic table of elements, never varies. Well, its financial properties don't appear so immutable.


    To compound the offense, if this can happen to gold no other simple relationships in markets are trustworthy either. Whatever a rise in interest rates used to mean for stocks, say, the old formula might not apply now.


    While the current economic cycle may resemble previous ones in many particulars, what interest rates did at this point last time might not happen this time.


    Without such anchors, the poor investor is left adrift. The reassuring news is, maybe this is not such a bad thing.


    Clearer Picture


    It's good to be reminded to resist two-dimensional thinking in a three (or more)-dimensional environment. If I can't use simplistic rules to time the market, maybe I'll stop trying, and save myself a lot of trouble.


    As a substitute, maybe I'll look to risk-managing methods such as diversification -- which has characteristics that are trustworthy. One of these: The smaller a percentage of my money I allocate to a given class of assets, the less it can hurt me if things go wrong.


    A fresh look at gold also encourages perspective. If we thought we knew a lot in the past, and have since been proved wrong on at least some points, how smart is it to think we can see everything clearly now?


    For investment purposes, a lesson in humility like this might be worth its weight in gold.


    To contact the writer of this column:


    Chet Currier in New York ccurrier@bloomberg.net.


    To contact the editor responsible for this column:


    Bill Ahearn at bahearn@bloomberg.net.


    Kalle mal eine Gegenfrage. Wird heute jeder Kredit zurückgezahlt? und muß man nicht auch heute schon Bürgen, Grundstücke, Auto, Maschinen LV als Absicherung hinterlegen?


    Glück auf

    Jason Hommel hat inzwischen sogar die Aufmerksamkeit von PAAS erlangt. Aus seinem letzten Wochenbericht:


    WONDERFUL NEWS!


    Ross Beaty, CEO of PAAS called me today, Sept 17th, to talk about his company and silver. He told me that I was a very successful marketer, and that my efforts are helping them change their policy on hedging, so that they will renounce it altogether. In the past, they received loans from the World Bank which required hedging commitments, but now PAAS is debt free, wants to remain debt free, and will not need to hedge to finance mine construction. Furthermore, although Ross acknowledged that putting extra cash into silver bullion will only add a miniscule amout of upside exposure to rising silver prices, he said that holding cash in the form of silver bullion is now "on their agenda".


    Furthermore, he clarified that the number of ounces of silver in the ground that PAAS has is 850 million, and their estimated production for next year, 2005, is 15 million ounces of silver.


    He also spoke about all the things he and his company have done to promote silver as money, including encouraging Mexico to issue silver coinage, and well as to help encourage the U.S. mint to continue minting silver eagles even though the U.S. mint has run out of silver. Furthermore, the company has plans to encourage other nations that mine silver to mint silver coins, such as Poland, and others.


    They will also be donating $150,000 to the silverinstitute.org
    http://www.goldismoney.com/ssr/SS51.html

    darkjedi,


    Wird denn heute jeder Kredit zurückgezahlt?


    Grundsätzlich JA !!


    zwar nicht immer durch den Schuldner ,aber wer bitte bezahlt die Zeche,wenn der Verleiher eines Kredites diesen abschreibt ? Doch wohl der Steuerzahler.Unser heutiges Geldsystem macht heute vieles möglich,was ich mir mit goldgedeckten Währungen in der Form allerdings auch nicht vorstellen könnte.


    Goldgedeckte Währung,wäre allein die Inflation ausgeschlossen,und unser Geldsystem wäre ganz anders konstruiert,aber die Zinsen,wären wesentlich höher,als in unserm heutigen System.


    Warum solltes Du Geld oder Gold ,zu einem Risiko des Verlustes,denn verleihen,Du würdest es genauso wie ich machen,und das Vermögen horten,oder? Ich glaube aber zu wissen,wo Du eigentlich hin willst,aber auch beim Regiogeld und den Brecktaten,gibt es nach einer bestimmten Frist,einen Verlust des Geldes,diesen kannst Du der Zinsrechnung gleich setzen,Du gehst dabei nur von Zuschlag ( Zinsen ) auf Abschlag
    (prozentualer Verlust ).Geld kostet immer irgentwas,ist nun mal so.


    schönes WE


    Kalle

    Aus "WELT AM SONNTAG" vom 19.9.2004

    Zuversicht für Aktien wächst.
    Aktuelle Finanzumfrage zeigt: Gold als Anlage verliert an Bedeutung, Börsen haben wieder Potenzial.


    von Frank Stocker


    Der Ölpreis hat seine Höchststände verlassen. Im Gleichschritt dazu haben die Aktienmärkte in den vergangenen vier Wochen wieder deutlich zugelegt und der Optimismus der Anleger ist gestiegen - sowohl unter den privaten Investoren als auch unter den professionellen Anlegern.


    Das zeigt auch die aktuelle Umfrage der "Welt am Sonntag" und der Münchner Forschungsgruppe Südprojekt unter den Anlage-Experten aus 15 Banken. Das wichtigste Ergebnis: Sie haben ihre Erwartungen für die Börsen erneut ein wenig angehoben. Parallel zur gestiegenen Zuversicht hat aber Gold, das Zufluchtsinvestment in unruhigen Zeiten, für sie an Bedeutung verloren.


    Bei der Umfrage des vergangenen Monats hatten die Volkswirte und Analysten schon prophezeit, dass die damalige Schwächephase der Aktienkurse in Kürze vorbei sein werde und sie sagten einen deutlichen Anstieg des Dax bis Ende September auf durchschnittlich 3827 Punkte voraus. Diese Marke hat der Index inzwischen sogar schon übertroffen.



    Folglich erwarten die Experten nun für die nächsten vier Wochen eine weitere Verbesserung. Im Schnitt glauben sie sogar, dass der Dax demnächst die Marke von 4000 Zählern wieder nachhaltig überspringen wird. Die Optimisten betrachten sogar 4150 Punkte als möglich und selbst die größten Pessimisten glauben nicht, dass der deutsche Leitindex noch einmal unter 350 Zähler fällt.


    Die Experten lassen sich auch nicht von den jüngsten Äußerungen einiger Wirtschaftsforscher beirren, die für das kommende Jahr schon wieder eine nachlassende Konjunktur erwarten. "Wir sind wesentlich optimistischer", sagt Michael Schubert von der Commerzbank. "Damit es wirklich zu einer Abschwächung kommt, müsste der Ölpreis wieder deutlich höher steigen."


    Doch genau hier liegt das größte Risiko für Wirtschaft und Aktienmärkte. Zwar ist die Marke von 50 Dollar für das Barrel am Terminmarkt wieder in weite Ferne gerückt. Dennoch bewegt sich der Preis für Rohöl immer noch über 40 Dollar und damit um rund zehn Dollar höher als noch vor Jahresfrist. "Wenn der Preis nicht bald unter 40 Dollar fällt, kann das durchaus wirtschaftliche Bremsspuren hinterlassen", glaubt Jürgen Michels von der Citigroup.


    Doch derzeit sieht es nicht danach aus, dass dieser Wert wieder unterschritten wird. Noch vor Monatsfrist hatten zwar alle Experten einhellig bekundet, dass im gegenwärtigen Preisniveau ein hoher Anteil Spekulation enthalten sei. Der "echte" Preis wurde auf rund 35 Dollar beziffert. Doch auch nach dem Ende der Spekulationswelle ist ein solches Preisniveau noch in weiter Ferne, sodass viele Experten mittlerweile darüber nachdenken, ob der spekulative Anteil nicht wesentlich niedriger ist als zuvor gedacht.


    "Wenn dem so ist, dann müssten tatsächlich alle Prognosen auf den Prüfstand", sagt Commerzbank-Volkswirt Schubert. Einerseits müssten dann die Wachstumsprognosen etwas nach unten revidiert werden, viel stärker müssten aber die Inflationsvorhersagen nach oben korrigiert werden.


    Dies wiederum hätte Konsequenzen für die Notenbanken - allerdings in höchst unterschiedlicher Weise. Die amerikanische Zentralbank hat die Vorgabe, die Konjunktur zu beleben. Sollte das Wachstum unter einem höheren Ölpreis leiden, müsste sie also mit Zinssenkungen, mindestens aber mit einem Stopp des Zinserhöhungszyklus antworten.


    Für die Europäische Zentralbank ist im Gegensatz dazu die Preisstabilität das oberste Ziel. Sollten die Preise noch schneller steigen, müsste sie mit höheren Zinsen reagieren. Dies hat EZB-Chefvolkswirt Otmar Issing auch bereits klar gemacht, als er in der vergangenen Woche sagte, dass er die erhöhte Teuerung "mit Besorgnis" betrachte.


    Dies sind bislang nur theoretische Erwägungen. "Wir glauben nicht, dass die Europäische Zentralbank vor dem ersten Quartal kommenden Jahres aktiv wird", sagt Jürgen Michels. "Wir warnen auch vor einer Überinterpretation der aktuellen Äußerungen."


    Vielmehr glaubt er, dass die Eurozone in den kommenden Monaten besser abschneidet als die USA. "In den USA haben einige Branchen den Gipfel des Gewinnzyklus bereits wieder überschritten", so Michels. Dort seien daher keine starken Kursanstiege mehr zu erwarten. Europa hinke hingegen der Entwicklung noch hinterher und könne noch für Überraschungen sorgen.


    Andererseits ist kaum zu erwarten, dass der Dax den Dow Jones längerfristig abhängt. Daher sehen die Prognosen der Experten bei der Umfrage für beide Indices ungefähr die gleiche Entwicklung voraus. Innerhalb der kommenden sechs Monate erwarten sie eine Kurssteigerung von durchschnittlich rund sieben Prozent bei beiden Indices.


    Doch Experten stellen ihre Vorhersagen unter die Prämisse, dass der Ölpreis nicht wieder einen Strich durch die Rechnung macht und die Geopolitik einigermaßen stabil bleibt. Sie sehen im Moment daher kein großes Potenzial für Gold. Der Preis für die Feinunze Gold dürfte nach ihrer Einschätzung auf dem gegenwärtigen Niveau verharren und selbst auf Sechs-Monats-Sicht nur unwesentlich anziehen. Terroranschläge oder neue Rekorde am Rohölmarkt könnten dieses Bild jedoch auch sehr schnell umkehren und zu einer neuerlichen Flucht ins Gold führen.


    Artikel erschienen am 19. September 2004


    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Kuddel

    http://www.pilt.de/article/pol…e-Intrige/1074267168.html


    Ausschnitt:


    "... Nach einiger Zeit entschied sich *Herr Schmidt* widerwillig – aufgrund der Differenz von 25 % zum Einkaufspreis – zur Rückgabe des Barrens, original in Folie verschweißt, mit Quittung, bei der gleichen Bank.


    Die Rücknahme wurde verweigert mit diffuser Begründung! Daraufhin ließ *Herr Schmidt* diesen Barren durch einen Juwelier auf Echtheit prüfen, mit negativem Ergebnis! ...

    Es handelte sich um ein Metall, ggfs. Legierung mit gleicher Wichte und oberflächlicher Vergoldung. Eine auch nur angemessene Verwertung war nicht möglich. ..."

Schriftgröße:  A A A A A