Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

The John Brimelow Report

India increases buying; open interest slumps.

Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.60, PM $8.48, with world gold at $420 and $421.80. Ample, and lavish, for legal gold imports. The rupee strengthened further to a gold import-facilitating 4 ½ month high, and the stock market rose 1.53%.

According to Reuters:

" Indian shares surged to a six-month closing high on Wednesday, led by gains in technology stocks on hopes that an anticipated win for President George W. Bush would ease fears about outsourcing of software services to India… Indian tech companies have reported robust profit growth in the past few quarters as more multinational corporations shift back-office jobs to India in an effort to cut costs."

Economic prosperity, and a rising rupee pushed up by foreign portfolio inflows, together and separately spell more aggressive gold purchases by the world’s largest importer. This is not a dimension to the gold market that is widely understood.

Tokyo was closed today. One notes with interest that the Shanghai Gold Exchange is showing appreciable (c.90c) premiums over world gold now, with gold at $420.45 on the close today.

Yesterday in NY gold was hit by quite a serious bear raid. In the words of UBS:

"One commission house started to sell a good quantity of December futures contracts on Comex and this pushed gold down to $422.00 / 50… then heavy selling from US names - an investment bank followed by one commission house once gold breached $421/oz - pushed the metal lower still and then stops were triggered and the metal plunged to $417.00 50. At this level very strong physical demand stopped the falling metal dead in its tracks…"

Volume of 83,023 contracts was heavy, and the open interest drop 14,353 lots to 313,532 rather steep, especially considering that a decline of this size must have brought in some momentum short sellers. Possibly the resilience gold shown in NY this morning reflects the reversal of such positions.

Any further firming of the rupee (which seems quite likely, especially if oil continues to weaken) can only sharpen further the bullion appetite of the world’s largest gold consumer. Impelled by the physical market, another approach on the $430s high seems very likely.

JB

A special thanks to John. His reporting on the cash gold markets around the world is invaluable, and aids us in comprehending what is driving the gold price.

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW soared early in response to the Bush/Republican mandate. Then, it gave back some gains to finish at 10,137, up 101. The DOG continued its winning ways, flying another 20 to 2004.

The 30-year bond was bombed early, then rallied back with a vengeance. After making a 111 ¾ low, it reversed to finish at 113 13/32, up 5/32.

Well Bush fans, you got your wish. Even better, the Republican position strengthened in Congress. Maybe the Bush Administration can create jobs this time around, give impetus to a rising stock market, and find a way to solve the Iraq War horror show. As an American, I sure hope so. Unfortunately, the odds of any those positives coming to pass seem slim to none to me.

Neither of the Presidential candidates dealt with the serious issues confronting America today; what needs to be done to correct the imbalances, and the ill thought out policy in Iraq. Worse, this Bush Administration is not liked around the world and is actually hated in a number of quarters. With so many problems on the horizon, it would be very helpful to cultivate friends and to generate some goodwill out there. The powers in Washington today possess little and are losing what little they have.

The only reason for me to go into this is to comment on our gold market. Bottom line:

*The dollar is going to stink up the place this coming year.

*The crooks are going to lose control of their gold rig as the physical demand for gold around the world will bury The Gold Cartel and annihilate their fraudulent scheme.

*At some point after gold takes out $430 convincingly, the gold trading action will divert somewhat from that of the dollar. That’s because The Gold Cartel’s price rigging scheme will have gone down the chute. They have been using the dollar action to manipulate the price. Once that ends, at least for the most part, gold will trade off of a myriad of other factors.

As far as the US stock market and economy is concerned, the good news is behind us. Reality check is staring the market and the economy in the face and investors won’t like what they see in the coming months. The action of this market is likely to get extremely ugly.

The US economic news:

10:00 Oct. ISM Non-Manufacturing reported 59.8 vs. consensus 58
Prior reading 56.7.
* * * * *

10:00 Sept. Factory Orders reported (0.4%) vs. consensus 0.4%
Prior reading revised to (0.3%) from (0.1%).
* * * * *

10:01 Oc.t ISM-Non Manufacturing Prices Paid reported 74.1 vs. Sept. 67.1
New Orders 60.5 vs. Sept. 58.5.
* * * * *

10:31 DOE reports crude oil inventories +6.3M barrels vs. expectations +2.0M barrels
Gasoline inventories reported +500K barrels vs. consensus +1M barrels. Distillate inventories reported (900K) barrels vs. consensus (600K) barrels. December crude is trading lower in initial reaction to the data.
* * * * *

10:31 API reports crude oil inventories +7.8M barrels
Gasoline inventories +2.7M barrels, while distillate inventories rose 501K barrels.
* * * * *

Uh Oh! Oil tanked early on the crude build up, then reversed violently to the upside late in the day, closing at $50.88, up $1.24 per barrel. Technically, today’s outside day key reversal is very bullish, especially in light of the negative fundamental news.

December crude oil
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/C4

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. sales in the U.S. fell in October as the two largest U.S. automakers reduced incentives. Sales rose at DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler and Toyota Motor Corp., helped by new models.
Sales fell 4.7 percent at General Motors, which said it will further cut fourth-quarter North American production, and 5 percent at Ford. Chrysler's increase was 2.3 percent. Toyota posted a 13 percent rise, along with gains of 27 percent at Nissan Motor Co. and 10 percent at Honda Motor Co. –END-

On gold leasing:

Good morning Bill:
According to early Kitco lease rate data, gold is in incipient backwardation and silver is in backwardation in the two month term. The gold CARTEL used leased metal to hit the spot market in both gold and silver. Combine this with a deluge of paper and yesterday's bloodbath in pms is easily explained.

The good news is the paper gold price (I prefer to call the spot market this rather than its real name) is rising this morning as a world response to America choosing financial incompetence and military adventurism over conciliation and good sense in last night's election. Bush is good for gold.

The bad news is the West continues to bleed gold eastward as indicated by the lease data.
Regards, Rhody

Some big picture input from London this morning:

Good morning Bill
I have emailed you before on the issue of some of your readers looking to LeMetropoleCafe as a guide to short-term trading. They won't get that guide because it isn't there.

Everyone has to make their own decisions based on their interpretation of a number of factors, some of which (but not all) are market ones. To blame you for the current sell-off is unfair.

In my view, for what it's worth, gold will move very strongly upwards in the very near future. Anyone who is calling $430 as a top in the gold price and has placed their bets accordingly had better be wearing brown trousers.

I attach a long term $gold chart which clearly shows gold in a huge teacup and handle chart formation. These formations are extremely reliable in defining the next move up.

In fact there was a smaller t & h formation at $325 in 2002.

I attach a chart which shows the two formations. The 2002 handle is shown in orange and the current one in green.

Very briefly, the move that is made is the number from the base of the cup to the top of the handle, added to the top of the handle. So to put some numbers on this.

On the chart gold bottomed at $255. The break from the handle formation is at $315. In round figures $60. Once gold broke out of the handle formation it moved in short order to $375 (on a closing basis) before falling back to the top of the handle.

The current formation looks like this:

Gold bottom $255. Top of handle formation $430. Number from base of cup to top of handle $175. However the break will come from lower than this. Say around $420. Difference $165. Add to the start of the break at $420, and you have a move to around $580.

The move out of the last handle formation was hard and fast. I don't think it will be be any different this time.
Best regards
Ian

From Australia’s Nick Laird:

World Central Bank gold holdings decline 3.2% since November 2002

http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_503696.html

Bill
This one sounds interesting.

If the Central Backs have a supposed 30,000 tonnes then 3.2% of this is approx 1000 tonnes.
This seems a high amount considering the Central Banks agreement of a 400 tonne limit (now raised to 500 tonne)

Now if the Central Banks only have 15,000 tonnes left then 3.2% of this is approx 480 tonnes which seems more likely...

Cooked books.
Cheers Nick

Mining these days is not easy. As oft-mentioned here, costs and other problems seem to be ruling the day. $400 gold isn’t good enough anymore for the gold shares to do anything. Gold needs to explode through $430 and silver through $8 to create any real excitement. Two items to report on that front.

Café members who own Hecla Mining should know their production in Mexico stopped about two weeks ago because of a union strike at the mill? The strike was called for inhumane treatment of the employees. Instead of talking to the union, Hecla is trying to get the strike declared illegal. It has been more than ten days but still no news. I wonder if they will mention it in their conference call and if they will mention the impact on production and cash flows.

Then, there is my largest holding, GSS, which stunk up the place last quarter due to rain problems affecting production, etc. Now we know why the stock has traded so poorly. Hopefully, the bad news is out of the way and market participants will take this opportunity to jump all over a fine company that had a bumpy spell – one whose share price is selling 40% less than last year with gold at the same price it is today.

GOLDEN STAR REPORTS third QUARTER RESULTS

Denver, Colorado, November 3, 2004: Golden Star Resources Ltd. (AMEX: GSS; TSX: GSC) today announced a third quarter net loss of $4.3 million ($(0.03) per share), based on revenues of $13.4 million and gold production of 30,755 ounces from its Bogoso/Prestea Mine in Ghana. Slower production rates and higher costs associated with the mining and processing of transition ore at Bogoso/Prestea exacerbated by high rainfall and a protracted commissioning phase for Wassa combined with recognizing previously capitalized corporate development expenses related to the IAMGold tender offer were the primary reasons for the loss. (All currency in this news release is expressed in U.S. dollars, unless otherwise noted.)

The gold shares rebounded nicely. Those who dumped late yesterday were caught in a head fake. The XAU jumped 2.39 to 101.88, while the HUI leaped 6.79 to 229.79. Both indexes closed on their highs.

The Gold Cartel is capping gold, waiting for the dollar to turn up so they can go after the specs again. The scenario seems too pat to me this time. My sense is the big gold buyers know what the cabal is up to and are waiting for them to turn the specs sellers. In turn they are waiting in the weeds for them to dump – LIKE YESTERDAY - to scoop up cheap gold. If the Russian, Chinese, Indian and Arab buying is as significant as our information leads us to believe, the cabal is going to have a tough time keeping gold down at these levels too much longer.

By day’s end the dollar collapsed to close into new low ground and oil reversed violently to the upside. Only the desperate selling by the secretive Gold Cartel, in one of the most un-American, scurrilous schemes of all time, is preventing the price of gold from soaring. We are coming very close to the day when the bad guys lose it and gold explodes out of NOWHERE. For gold to be at this price level is ludicrous.

Gold, silver and the shares remain THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

Bush Wins! Happy Days Ahead?
By: David Chapman, Union Securities

The first term of Bush brought a 42% decline in the NASDAQ, a 20% decline in the S&P 500, a 6% decline in the Dow Jones Industrials and a 26% decline in the US$ but a 54% increase in oil prices and a 60% jump in gold prices. Happy days ahead? We don’t think so. But if you are an oil and gold bull “Bring him on”.

http://news.goldseek.com/UnionSecurities/1099584002.php

Sieht so aus, als ob die Goldkabale wieder mal für Ordnung sorgen müßte. 6-Dollar-Regel in Gefahr!

Goldpreis über 330, +6,40

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/images/live/t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif]

http://www.quamnet.com/fcgi-bin/columnists.fpl?par2=5&par3=2

Marc Faber:

(Auszug)
Given the above thoughts, I would be looking to sell bonds in the near future. I would also get out of industrial commodities including oil, although the fundamentals of the latter are still very favorable in the long term. If Mr. Bush is reelected, I would, however, be very careful to be short oil, as an American or Israeli strike on Iran - possibly as early as December - becomes very likely. With respect to stocks, I would look at selling or shorting financial and homebuilding shares as well as the NASDAQ on any further near term strength. Regarding the US dollar, as a contrarian, I don't expect much further near term weakness, as the entire world is now convinced that the dollar will only go down in value (panic selling would, however, be a possibility).

I would continue to accumulate gold and silver, despite the fact that precious metals could also come under some near term pressure if industrial commodities sell off and should the US dollar strengthen. However, I remain a believer that gold and silver will significantly out-perform the fully valued S&P 500 and maintain its purchasing power under any kind of economic scenario in the years ahead (see figure 11).

Please note that the figure above shows how many S&P 500 it takes to buy one ounce of gold. So, whereas it took four S&P 500s to buy one ounce of gold in 1980, today it only takes less than half an S&P 500 to buy an ounce of gold. This suggests that gold is despite its recent rise still relatively inexpensive compared to the S&P 500. I may add that gold is also relatively inexpensive compared to the price of oil!

Wieder eine Attacke und ich bin live dabei! Erinnert mich an Dezember 2002, als die 330 geknackt wurde...

*gespannt sei*

Na, da haben sich die "Bären" aber sauber geirrt, als sie meinten, dass mit der Wiederwahl von Bush der Goldpreis in den Keller geht!

Wenn er sich auch morgen über 430 hält, dann "Frohe Weihnachten".

Kuddel.

# Kuddel

Ja wenn er nach der Chart-Regel drei Tage drüber bleit dann kannst Du recht behalten.Wichtig ist auch das Freitang-Nachmittagfixing.

gruß hpoth

PS: es ist immer wieder interessant wenn man die Bericht vor einigen Tagen wegen der US-Wahl und der Auswirkung auf die EWdelmetalle und Dollar liest, alles Kaffesatzleser.

gruß hpoth

Morgen sind die Arbeitsmarktdaten für Oktober dran, wenn dann morgen abend Gold bei 432 schließt, sollten auch die Techniker zufrieden gestellt sein.

Rohstoffe
Goldpreis auf Rekordhoch
Mit 433 Dollar kostet die Feinunze soviel wie seit 16 Jahren nicht mehr

04. November 2004 Der Goldpreis ist am Donnerstag im Spot-Handel in der Spitze auf 433,10 Dollar je Feinunze gestiegen. Dies war der höchste Stand seit 16 Jahren. Damit sprang die Notierung über das Anfang April verzeichnete zyklische Hoch von rund 431 Dollar je Feinunze.

Trotz mehrerer Anläufe in den beiden vergangenen Wochen sind die Notierungen dort zuvor abgeblockt worden. Am Donnerstag wurde beim Nachmittags-Fixing in London ein Preis von 430,50 Dollar ermittelt. Händler erklärten den Anstieg des Goldpreises damit, daß sich der amerikanische Dollar am Donnerstag im Rahmen seiner Abwärtsbewegung gegenüber dem Euro auf ein neues mehrmonatiges Tief von 1,2897 Dollar je Euro verbilligt hatte.

Dollar als bewegendes Element

Der Dollar-Index, der sich aus einem Korb von Währungen bedeutender Handelspartner der Vereinigten Staaten zusammensetzt, hat sogar ein neues Rekordtief erreicht. Der Dollar wird einhellig als das derzeit einzige bewegende Moment des Goldmarktes bezeichnet. Das Edelmetall verhält sich in monetär kritischen Zeiten zum Dollar meist wie eine andere, feste Währung. Dies erklärt auch, warum sich der zum Beispiel in Euro notierte Goldpreis zuletzt nicht wesentlich bewegt hat.

Solange der Dollar sinkt, scheint Gold vor einem Preisverfall bewahrt zu bleiben. Ein überproportionaler Rückschlag des Edelmetalls wäre nach Ansicht zahlreicher Analysten aber in jenem Augenblick zu erwarten, in dem sich die amerikanische Währung nennenswert erholen würde. Sie begründen dies mit den außerordentlich hohen spekulativen Netto-Kaufpositionen am Terminmarkt für Gold in New York. Die mancherorts zu vernehmende These, die Verteuerung des Edelmetalls sei ausschließlich Käufen der Spekulation zuzuschreiben, stellen Händler, die auch im physischen Geschäft tätig sind, jedoch in Frage.

„Physische” Abgabebereitschaft

Tatsächlich sei hier schon seit längerem ein zunehmendes Interesse besonders seitens der Anleger zu verzeichnen. Sie berichten aber auch über spürbar gewachsene physische Abgabebereitschaft während des laufenden Aufschwungs. Hinter diesen Verkäufen stünden Produzenten, heißt es. Doch es wird auch angedeutet, daß europäische Zentralbanken die Gunst der Stunde nutzen könnten, um sich im Rahmen des seit September geltenden neuen Goldabkommens von überschüssigen Reserven zu trennen.

http://www.faz.net/s/Rub3B5979…Tpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html

Interessant war heute, dass der Silberkurs parallel zur Dollarschwäche jedoch überproportional anstieg. Während der Dollar um 0,31 % anstieg, erfolgte parallel dazu ein Anstieg des Silberkurses um 2,22 % (Faktor 7 !), während der Goldkurs sich nur in der Höhe des Währungsanstiegs bewegte.

Dieses Muster habe ich schon mehrmals gesehen, dass der Silberkurs sich parallel zur Dollarentwicklung um ein mehrfaches bewegte !

Auszug aus dem Tageskommentar Pro Aurum 4.11.:

Die physischen Umsätze unserer Kunden sind im Vergleich zur Vorwoche etwas rückläufig. Das Verhältnis von Kundenkäufen zu Verkäufen betrug gestern rund fünf zu eins. Gesucht waren dabei Goldmünzen 1 Unze Krügerrand und Wiener Philharmoniker. Bei den Barren waren die Gewichtseinheiten 100 Gramm und 500 Gramm nachgefragt.

Das Silber beeindruckt uns weiter. Nach einer kurzen Schwächeperiode am Dienstag mit Kursen knapp unter 6,80 US$ pro Feinunze drehte das weiße Metall und erreichte mittlerweile wieder Kurse über 7,20 US$. Die Sekundärware im Bereich der Silberbarren und Silbermünzen bleibt weiterhin knapp. Selbstverständlich sind neue Stücke jederzeit verfügbar, wegen des höheren Aufgeldes auf den reinen Silberwert aber derzeit nicht zu empfehlen. Wir werden Sie sofort informieren, wenn sich dieser Sachverhalt wieder geändert hat.

# Silbertaler,

Das mit der Knappheit beim Silber ist doch Unsinn, bei meiner Bank hier vor Ort ( Frankfurt/Main) ist das überhaupt kein Thema, kannst Du soviel bekommen wie Du willst.

good luck

hpoth

# All

Eine dumme Frage von mir:
Was darf ich mir unter dem Begriff "Sekundärware im Bereich Silberbarren und ~münzen" vorstellen?

Wenn es Sekundärware gibt, wie sieht es dann mit der Primärware aus?
Verhält sich das wie Brötchen ganz frisch aus dem Ofen?
Ist die sekundäre Ware dann gebraucht.

Gruß,
CheckPoint

CheckPoint
Es gibt Sekundär- und Primärminen. Bei Sekundäreminen handelt es sich um Minen in deren Fokus die Förderung von Zink,... liegt und Silber nur als Zusatz- oder Abfallprodukt entsteht. Im Gegensatz dazu werden Primärminen in erster Linie zur Silberproduktion eingesetzt.

In der Regel ist die Produktion von Silber in Primärminen teurer als in Sekundärminen da in Sekundärminen quasi die Silberproduktion durch die Produktion der anderen Rohstoffe quersubventioniert wird.

Erst bei einem steigenden Silberpreis (>8-9$ ???) werden daher Primärminen verstärkt hochfahren.

Ich vermute mal das mit Sekundärbarren und -münzen die Produktion aus Sekundärminen gemeint ist. Sicher bin ich mir allerdings letztlich auch nicht.

Smartie

Ich behaupte/vermute mal: Deine Bank vor Ort ist auch nicht "der" Anlaufpunkt für Silberkäufer. Die hat einfach zuwenig Durchsatz als dass eine Marktverengung dort schnell sichtbar werden würde.

Was hältst Du von der These?

Smartie
P.S.: Wieviel ist soviel ich will?

Ich stimme der Aussage von Smartie zu. Pro Aurum hat als einer der großen Gold-/Silberhändler in Deutschland einen deutlich besseren Überblick über die Marktentwicklung bei physischer Ware als die einzelnen Banken, wo weniger gekauft wird.

Gruß

Silbertaler

November 4 – Gold $429.50 up $5.40 – Silver $7.35 up 23 cents

Gold Surges, Yet CLEARLY Stuffed At $430 Again

"There seems to be a correlation between the intensity of the official attacks on gold and the severity of monetary crises." Hans F. Sennholz

After all these years, what do can we say about a day like this. Last night, gold erupted in the Asian market to the tune of $4. No surprise to MIDAS as mentioned in recent commentary. It then exploded from that level after falling back for a bit. At one point after the Comex opening, gold was $432.70 bid. Of course that was early on, and as always, within the first hour rule limits of making highs. The high for the day, which the cabal rejected quickly, was the same $432.70, which means gold closed nearly $3 off its high and BELOW its critical derivatives neutron bomb resistance of $430. The Gold Cartel avoided a nightmare for the time being, inforcing the traditional $6 Rule with vigor.

Not all was lost today as the London PM Gold Fix checked in at $430.50, another sixteen-year high. This FIX is the key to physical gold pricing contracts around the world and has to really upset the devious Gold Cartel.

Once again we find the crooked tap dancers in New York doing what they can to take gold down AFTER that PM Fix. I would say I received more calls today from Café members than any day in memory for a variety of reasons. Excitement that gold was breaking out and despair that certain stocks were breaking down. Such emotion!

I was also barraged early today about the $6 Rule being broken to the upside – not so fast, as always.

Two food for thoughts – anecdotal stuff:

*Yesterday word hit the street the Fed bought TIPS: inflation protected instruments, mid-day.

*Rumors were circulating this morning on the street there was a potential large credit derivatives write-off at several large brokerage firms.

The Café’s Grep Pickup says triple tops do not hold. I agree.

Silver, which acted so well yesterday, took off. Stay tuned for some fireworks.!