Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Auszug aus dem Tageskommentar Pro Aurum 15.11.:

Die physische Nachfrage hat sich am Freitag sprunghaft belebt. Gesucht wurden vor allem Goldmünzen 1 Unze Krügerrand und Maple Leaf. Bei den Goldbarren waren die Gewichtseinheiten 100 Gramm und 250 Gramm die Umsatzspitzenreiter. Das Volumen stieg im Vergleich zu den beiden vorangegangenen Tagen um mehr als 150%. Das Verhältnis von Kundenkäufen zu Verkäufen betrug weiterhin drei zu eins. Einige institutionelle Kunden fielen hierbei durch größere Verkäufe auf.Das Silber konnte ebenfalls zulegen und überwand die Widerstandslinie bei 7,57 US$ pro Feinunze knapp. Auch hier stehen die Ampeln derzeit auf grün. Die nächsten Widerstände haben wir bei 7,68 US$ und 7,75US$ ausgemacht. Die physische Nachfrage konnte sich auch hier beleben.

PEIXOTO DE AZEVEDO, im November. Der vierzigjährige Lenilton war immer einer von den Kleinen, und er hat ganz klein angefangen. Als er 1987 aus Südbrasilien hierher kam in die Goldgräberstadt Peixoto de Azevedo, die damals ein Zehntel der gesamten brasilianischen Goldes erzeugte, da wollte er erst mal nur eins: Abhauen. "An meinem ersten Tag in Peixoto sind drei Leute umgebracht worden, aber dann habe ich mir gedacht, dass nur der stirbt, der den Tod sucht", sagt Nilton. Und weil er so eine schöne Schrift hatte, fing er als Kassierer beim illegalen Glücksspiel an, bevor er in den Goldankauf überwechselte, später zehn bis zwanzig Kilo pro Monat vermarktete und schließlich Riesenverluste machte.

Vor zwölf Jahren war Schluss, zwölf Jahre, das ist wirklich keine Zeit, und trotzdem hören sich all die Episoden aus der Zeit des Goldfiebers so an, als sei das alles ewig her: Der Goldgräber, der immer ein Taxi für sich und ein zweites für seinen Hut nahm. Die Spelunken, in denen die Garimpeiros pro Nacht und Nase hundert Gramm Gold ausgaben. Der Autobesitzer, der grundsätzlich Mineral- als Kühlwasser verwendete. Die legendäre Hure Jacqueline, die es pro Nacht auf 500 Gramm brachte und alles in Mietshäuser anlegte. Die Flugzeuge, die damals das Bargeld nach Peixoto de Azevedo brachten. Die Hinterhältigkeit, mit der den Goldtauchern die Schläuche durchgeschnitten wurden. Und die tödliche Krankheit namens Balaria, die damals grassierte - die Kombination aus Malaria und Ballerei. Soll das wirklich erst zwölf, fünfzehn oder zwanzig Jahre her sein?

Malaria und Tripper

Peixoto de Azevedo ist vermutlich die einzige Stadt weltweit, die erst 25 Jahre alt ist, aber schon ein historisches Zentrum besitzt. Das ist natürlich ein großes Wort für die Atmosphäre hoffnungslosen Verfalls, die sich in der Rua do Comércio und den paar Seitenstraßen breit macht, in denen es früher Bars und Bordelle, Diskotheken und Nachtlokale zu Hunderten gab, außerdem jede Menge Goldaufkäufer. Und vor allem Apotheken, wegen der Malaria und dem Tripper. Nicht einmal der Abglanz der früheren Glorie liegt heute über dem ehemaligen Zentrum: Von fünf Läden haben vier die Rollläden für immer heruntergelassen.

Anderthalb Tonnen Gold pro Monat wurden hier einmal umgeschlagen, aber das Gold, sagt Nilton, "bringt keinem Glück". Ihm jedenfalls hat es keins gebracht, und der Stadt auch nicht, die früher einmal das zweithöchste Steueraufkommen im Bundesstaat Mato Grosso hatte. In ihren besten Zeiten wohnten in der Goldgräberstadt an die 100 000 Einwohner, im vergangenen Jahr waren es noch 22 747 Menschen im Munizip Peixoto de Azevedo - auf einer Fläche fast so groß wie Schleswig-Holstein. Die hohen Energiekosten, die niedrigen Weltmarktpreise, die Folgen der Wirtschaftsliberalisierung Anfang der Neunziger - das alles kam zusammen, und so wurde Peixoto 1992 in ein paar Monaten vom Goldfieber kuriert.

Und jetzt? Was Peixoto am Leben erhält, ist die Landwirtschaft. Tropen so traurig, wie sich wohl auch der französische Ethnologe Claude Lévi-Strauss nicht vorstellte, als er in den dreißiger Jahren durch Mato Grosso zog: Wenn man die Stadt Peixoto verlässt, fährt man endlos durch eine zersetzte, zerwühlte, zerstörte Landschaft. Die nächste Phase der gewaltsamen Ausbeutung der Natur liegt förmlich in der Luft. Wie Novembernebel legt sich der Rauch der endlos brennenden Rodungen vor die Sonne. Unbekümmert lassen sie die angekohlten Stämme einfach stehen. Den Rindern ist es egal, dass das traurig aussieht, und den Menschen auch. Fleisch, darauf gründet sich Peixotos Gegenwart. Und auf die Edelhölzer, die in den riesigen Wäldern eingeschlagen werden.

Vielleicht wird ja auch alles wieder anders mit dem Gold. Luiz Alberto de Jesus, den sie in Peixoto alle Nenê nennen, ist davon überzeugt. Er ist der Besitzer der Firma Ouro Sharp - "Sharp, so wie der Taschenrechner" -, einer von fünf Goldaufkäufern, die sich in Peixoto noch halten können. "Das mit dem Gold ist nicht vorbei. Was sich ändern wird, ist nur die Art, es zu gewinnen", sagt er, "was wir brauchen, sind Investitionen". Luiz Roberto Campos, ein anderer Goldhändler, teilt die Zuversicht. Sicher werde nicht noch einmal so ein Goldfieber ausbrechen wie 1979, als jede Woche Hunderte von Menschen aus ganz Brasilien in Peixoto ankamen. Aber dass Großunternehmen mit viel Kapital und hohem Maschineneinsatz in den Untergrund vorstoßen, das hält Campos für wahrscheinlich. "Und dann", prophezeit er, "gibt es wieder Handel in Peixoto, und Geld und Jobs".

"Noite negra", schwarze Nacht, heißt das Lokal des Transvestiten Nashi, die abends die rote Birne anschaltet und in schwarzglitzerndem Trägerkleid auf Kunden wartet. Das Lokal hat Nashi günstig gekauft, also will sie bleiben. Sie hofft auf bessere Zeiten. Die blonde Vânia träumt dagegen vom Weggehen. "Hier ist nichts mehr los. Aber in Novo Progresso, da gibt es Farmen, da gibt es Gold, da hast du an jeder Ecke eine Nummer", sagt sie. Novo Progresso liegt ein paar Hundert Kilometer weiter nördlich. Vorher kommt noch Castelo dos Sonhos: Schloss der Träume. Als wären sie erfunden, diese Ortsnamen. Aber das sind sie natürlich auch.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.sueddeutsche.de/img/g_sz_logo.gif]
Deutschlands geheime Währung
Die Schatten-Mark
Parallel zu den offiziellen Zahlungsmitteln hielt die Bundesbank jahrzehntelang ganz diskret Ersatznoten bereit — warum, ist bis heute unklar.
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.sueddeutsche.de/wir…/42957/image_fmbg_0_4.jpg]
...
In der Tat waren die so genannten Bundeskassenscheine niemals gültige Zahlungsmittel. Dennoch wurden sie in der Nachkriegszeit in offiziellem Auftrag hergestellt -- warum und unter welchen Umständen dies geschah, ist allerdings seit Jahrzehnten geheimnisumwittert.
...
Aus Walz' Sicht gilt als sicher, dass es seit den sechziger Jahren eine Serie aus Geldscheinen parallel zu den offiziellen Münzen und Banknoten gab. Sie sollte im Notfall die umlaufenden Ausgaben rasch ersetzen, etwa bei einer Bedrohung der Bundesrepublik durch Staaten des Warschauer Paktes.

"Man stellte sich beispielsweise vor, dass der Ostblock versuchen könnte, die DM durch Falschgeld zu destabilisieren", sagt Walz. In diesem Falle hätte man die umlaufenden Stücke und Scheine für ungültig erklären und die Ersatzserie ausgeben können.

Mangel an Münzen

Auch gab es wohl das Szenario einer Hyper-Inflation wie im Jahre 1923, als ein Währungsschnitt und die rasche Ausgabe neuer Zahlungsmittel nötig wurden.

Ein Vorrat sei in solchen Fällen durchaus sinnvoll, meint der Experte. "Üblicherweise dauert es Jahre, bis eine einigermaßen fälschungssichere Serie hergestellt ist."

Die Bevorratung von Scheinen anstelle von Kleingeld geschah offensichtlich auch aus der Erfahrung heraus, dass in Krisen- und Kriegszeiten oft ein Mangel an Münzen herrscht -- zum einen, weil die Bevölkerung sie hortet, zum anderen, weil sie wegen ihres Metallgehalts eingeschmolzen und für andere Zwecke verwendet werden.
....
http://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/artikel/984/42942/

Gibt es schon einen Schatten-Euro für eine Währungs“reform“?

ich dachte es wäre umgekehrt, habe vor kurzem irgendwo gelesen dass deutsche bomber über england pfundnoten abwarfen um das gleiche zu erreichen aber es hatte damals nicht so richtig funktioniert.
aber es wird wohl bei jedem krieg in erwägung gezogen, staaten können die scheine von fremden staaten bestimmt besser fälschen als die blütenmafia.
eine hochinteressante und sehr wirkungsvolle waffe, und dass auch noch ohne tote.

Habe den Link leider nicht mehr, aber anscheinend gaben ein paar Bankautomaten der HVB und anderen Euro-Blüten aus... ist jetzt vielleicht 4-6 Monate her dass ich davon auf spiegel-online gelesen habe.

Achja, und anscheinend werden die Euro-Blüten immer besser. Fast nicht mehr vom Original zu unterscheiden.

Zitat

Original von midas

Vielen Dank für Eure Mühen, natürlich ist es ruhiger im Board geworden, aber es gibt sicher viele wie mich, die es kaum schaffen alles zu lesen, geschweige denn selbst noch Beiträge zu liefern.

Macht bitte trotzdem weiter !!!

Hallo midas,

klar machen wir weiter. Schliesslich ist uns das Forum hier "ans Herz gewachsen" ...

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

November 15 – Gold $436.50 down 90 cents – Silver $7.53 down 6 cents

Harry Potter Wows ‘Em

"There seems to be a correlation between the intensity of the official attacks on gold and the severity of monetary crises." Hans F. Sennholz

Just walked in the door from New Orleans. Was a wonderful GATA success in the Big Easy. More below.

Out of the loop today, so my report will be from what I have been told and from what I see. It seems rather extraordinary.

Last night the GATA gang was hanging out at the Sheraton Bar before heading out to dinner and gold was up $1.40 with the DEC contract ready to take out $440 and the reported stops above that level. We should have taken a picture then of the price and called it a day (for the next 24 hours). That was about the best gold was going to do with the bums going into action. DEC eventually did take out $440, however the resulting commotion was a wasn’t. Down she went instead of up, thanks to Goldman "Hannibal Lecter" Sachs and friends.

However, what is most striking is how quiet the day was with gold at 16-year highs. Most markets become very volatile when they break into such significant new high ground like gold just did. Instead, gold went comatose. Yes, the dollar put in a rally to quench the gold action. However, we know this is how The Gold Cartel has used the dollar to keep gold from creating excitement around the world in other currencies. At some point in the very near future, gold is going to break from the dollar due to the very firm physical market.

Here is a shocker. The DEC gold and silver open interest went up on Friday with a little more than a week left before first notice day. The DEC gold contract rose 1868 to 247,907, with the total open interest rising 4195 contracts to 347,209. With so few days left before first notice day, one would expect the DEC positions to be contracting by now with new buyers going into FEB. Ain’t happening like it normally does.

The same with DEC silver. It rose 269 contracts to 86,155. The total silver open interest went into new high ground at 123,078, up 566 contracts.

Not sure what it means yet. However, it is potentially explosive should a number of the Dec longs ask for delivery. I am not hearing any talk about this, which what may be the most bullish factor of all. Time will tell here. Any kind of delivery squeeze is a long shot, yet could happen if someone decides to take what’s left of the visible silver supply. Have to stay all over it.

One thing which really struck me at the New Orleans conference was the amount of SHORT-TERM bearishness. There were way more bears there than bulls. Yes, most everyone was bullish in the long term, but most felt gold would be dumped first. Then, there was never admit your wrong Robert Prechter who is still big time bearish. I consider him now to be an embarrassment. Years ago, he said if gold took out $376, he would turn very bullish, looking for gold to take out $1,000 per ounce.

Goldman Sachs was talking up the bear case today on the Comex and was CONSPICUOUSLY seen putting on PUTS. As reported in this column lately, they have been a noticeable seller of late on behalf of The Gold Cartel.

The GATA crew is a bunch of independent thinkers. Mike Bolser, Catherine Austin Fitts and Frank Veneroso are short-term bearish. James Turk and I are bullish. At least one of our group will be correct.

The silver warehouse stocks dropped to 102,182,715 on Friday, a new low for the move.

The dollar went up by .34 to 84.05 with the euro falling .42 to 129.43. Oil tanked to $46.87 per barrel – inflation bearish, but Indian gold demand bullish.

HOW ABOUT THAT CRB!!!! It erupted to 287.38, up 4.09. Coffee went bananas. Cocoa lifted nicely and the grains have caught a bid. It is only 2 points from making a new high and this is with oil having dropped close to $10 per barrel. Deflationists won’t like this development.

The New Orleans conference was a big winner for GATA. Kathleen Steer, Ed’s gorgeous daughter (The GATA Girl), manned our booth most ably and outshined all of the Dines’ Birds. Look for a repeat in Vancouver on January 22 if we are lucky enough to corral her again.

Chris Powell was awesome in his organization of GATA’s activities. He received many kudos from different quarters.

The GATA luncheon to wrap up the conference was a huge success. When we walked into the setting, it looked like a G-7 meeting the way the head table was elevated in this huge ballroom with sky high ceilings and a view overlooking the Ponchetrain River.

We had 90 people show up with little promotion. Great crowd. Two billionaires along with the very special Richard Olsen, a New Jersey mechanic, who flew 4 of his sons and brothers in laws in from all over the country to attend the luncheon because Richard believes what GATA is doing is that important to our country.

You don’t find more top notch people than these attendees either:

*Sprott Asset Manager CEO John Embry
*Former Harmony Gold chairman Adam Fleming – now chairman of Wits Gold in South Africa
*Don Doyle, CEO of Blanchard Coin, who is doing an incredible job of suing JP Morgan Chase and Barrick Gold on charges of gold price manipulations.

Dan Norcini was a hoot as was Wistar Holt and his sidekick Charlie of Holt & Shapard Capital Management.

Candente, Samex, and Klondike Star were ably represented.

Nanik Daryanani flew in from the Canary Islands.

On the dias, my mentor Frank Veneroso shook up the attendees with a GATA related spook story – making me look toned down when it comes to the conspiracy stuff. Catherine Austin Fitts was her dazzling self. James Turk made some news about what the ETF's coming on stream may really be about. Ed Steer spoke eloquently of his grandfather fighting for freedom and why he signed up with GATA. Unfortunately, Mike Bolser had to leave early to catch a plan as did Reg Howe and Bob Landis. Then, there was GATA’s "Harry Potter," Andrew Hepburn, who co-wrote Sprott Asset Management’s publication, "Not Free, Not Fair: The Long-Term Manipulation of the Gold Price," along with John Embry. Harry is about 5’ 4" and looks much younger than he is, a mature 20.

From the elevated head table, I could see the attendees all begin to lean forward to listen this college junior. Cool as a cucumber, Andrew delivered a brief presentation with the savoir faire of an elder statesman and delivered the line of the entire conference as far as I am concerned. Went something like this:

The intellectual capital of the gold world is in this room – referring to Frank Veneroso, James Turk, John Embry, Adam Fleming (Reg Howe and Bob Landis), etc. Most of the other gold output out there is all drivel.

None of us have seen anything like Andrew. The next thing I know the very clever Joe Martin, who runs the superb Cambridge House gold conferences in Canada, was talking to Andrew about a speaking appearance.

My colleague Chris was his usual entertaining self.

I rapped it up with some mention of the GATA prints and what the GATA painting represents. We sold 10 at the conference and there are only 46 left out of the 300 limited edition printing. When we are down to 30 the price is going up to $1,000, as has been planned all along. They are $750 now plus $25 for shipping. For new Café members, the work of GATA artist Alain Despert is selling very well at $5,000/$8,000 a pop in Bora Bora See http://www.despert.com. When the gold market goes nuts and the GATA story breaks, these prints will be a part of US history. If any of you would like one, contact Chris Powell at GATAComm@aol.com. Just remember, when they are sold out you will only be able to own a print if one of the 300 wants to sell.

The John Brimelow Report

JB: Bears flunked today? Interesting Bianco

Monday, November 15, 2004

Indian financial markets were all closed today. So were all markets in the Muslim world, including the Gulf, Turkey, and Singapore. This was therefore the easiest day for the Bears to counter-attack significantly. They have not done much.

Although trading in the rupee is thin on such a day, Reuters did show it below $1 = R45 a couple of times, a new high. Since the Indian currency tends to move inversely with the oil price, the oil slide since India closed early on Thursday NY time is likely to see a firm rupee tomorrow, bolstering gold imports. Most commentators still assume that weak oil means weak gold: this is an obsolete thought now that India is so important to gold.

TOCOM gold was very quiet today, with the strong yen playing its usual discouraging role. Volume dropped 31% to only the equivalent of 12,223 Comex lots, but open interest did edge up again, by the equivalent of 720 Comex, to 105,595 NY equivalent. There was some talk of Japanese speculators coming into precious metals from Oil, but platinum seems to be the favoured vehicle. (NY on Friday traded a robust 64,414 lots: open interest rose another 4,326 lots – 13.45 tonnes – to 347,340, yet another record.)

Currently the Bears are alleging front running of the ETF as the reason for gold’s strength, with the brightest spokesman pointing out that the Hirohito Coin 600 tonne buy order in mid 1986 caused a period of strength which puzzled many. He fails to point out that the peak in Fall that year, just over $440, was easily surpassed in 1987 which saw gold much higher most of the year, ultimately clearing $500.

Bianco Research put out an interesting note on Friday, puzzling about the contrast in the big reduction in Mine hedging recently reported, and the behavior of the CFTC data (the study of which they to a fair degree pioneered).

"The de-hedging trend is not supported by the CoT chart..The Commercials/Hedgers…have been moving shorter and shorter for many months and are now near their most extreme position in 12 years. This suggests that hedgers have been selling more futures contracts in recent months - not reducing their hedging. We cannot explain the difference between these two measures. If anyone has any thoughts/explanations, please pass them along."

Of course, mines are not the only commercials in gold – there are fabricators – but that this discrepancy should puzzle this highly experienced Commodity outfit is notable. (See attachment. Scroll down for charts.)

While waiting for the physical market to squeeze the Bears again, it is worth contemplating The Privateer’s massive $US 5x3 point and figure chart, which has decisively rejected a triple top (second attachment).

JB

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/privateer.gif]

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/bianco.gif]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW just keeps on rising – to 10550, up 11. The DOG jumped another 9 to 2094.

02:39 Euro zone finance ministers expected to agree to continue to talk down Euro reports the WSJ
The agreement is expected at today's regular monthly meeting. In recent days officials have denounced the sharp rise in the Euro versus the dollar and blame the large U.S. budget deficits for the move.
* * * * *

Lois Ringel notes:

Quite a bit different from what I hear on CNBC Europe this morning..Consensis from pundits there felt that nothing would be done..also mentioned that Trichet's comment of "brutal" in regards to the strength of the Euro was not translated correctly, and that in French that translates into "sudden"...amazing the difference in the European channel versus ours... ***

Chuck checked in earlier:

NO sounded great. Either during this lift in the dollar or right at the end of move, we should start to see the real move in the shares and the metals. It needs to come out of great skepticism and there are too many people who have learned to connect the dots with a falling dollar. A rising dollar will perplex them. This stock rally is about toast. A strong dollar will trigger selling. Hoye is looking for 10,600 and then the decline. Could have a little pain this week. Chuck

Wake-up Call Time:

Fed's Gramlich Urges Fix for Budget Gap

By Poornima Gupta

ANN ARBOR, Mich. (Reuters) - U.S. budget deficits pose a problem for both the domestic and world economies, but there seems little political will to fix them, Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Board Governor Edward Gramlich said on Saturday.

"We have big deficits now and the politics of deficit reduction, if you want to call it that, are terrible. If you even dare talk about raising anybody's taxes, that's political death," Gramlich said in a speech at the University of Michigan.

"In 10 years when the huge baby boomer cohorts begin to retire, we will really have problems," he added, saying the national savings rate was at a record low and would only weaken further when demographics shifted.

"This is a significant problem," he said.

Gramlich urged a return to the budget limits of the late 1990s that have since expired. "I thought that was quite successful," he said.

The Fed governor said many Asian countries, particularly Japan and China, are fueling their export industries by supporting the dollar and keeping their own currencies cheap.

"How long can they do that? If they begin to have inflation in their own countries, which is getting close in China, they are going to probably have to stop," Gramlich said.

"So we have a pretty unstable world situation ... right now," he said.

The route to stability is through faster growth in the domestic economies of U.S. trading partners, coupled with an increase in the U.S. savings rate.

"The way to get our saving up is by reducing budget deficits. I personally would like to see us get back to something like a balanced budget as soon as we possibly can," Gramlich said.

The Bush administration has pledged to halve the shortfall, which hit a record $412 billion in fiscal 2004 ending Sept. 30, over five years through spending controls and economic growth.

However, concerns that the budget gap -- and U.S. trade shortfalls -- will grow further in a second term for President Bush (news - web sites) have exacted a heavy toll on the U.S. dollar in recent days.

European officials, worried about the drag a soaring euro will create in their economies, are expected to raise the issue next week with Treasury Secretary John Snow at a meeting of finance chiefs from the Group of 20 wealthy and emerging economies in Berlin.

"Foreign countries will have to stop trying to stimulate themselves by exports ... and stimulate their domestic demand. This would all possibly have to be worked out internationally," Gramlich said.

"But I think there is a way out of it. It involves fiscal austerity for the United States and it involves demand stimulation for the rest of the world," he added.

-END-

From Derek Van Artsdalen in San Antonio:

Howdy, Bill--
Just a snippet for "Midas" tonight.

I think your readers may find it interesting that exactly 25 years ago today, on November 15, 1979, the price of gold was only about six weeks from the start of its tremendous blow-off stage. That price explosion lasted just a few weeks, and gold eventually peaked around $875 per ounce ($850 on the London PM fix) in the third week of January 1980. For the record, the official London evening fix on this day in 1979 was exactly $386.00.

Here's the interesting part: this evening's London PM fix of the gold price was $437.60. That is, surprisingly, nearly 14% HIGHER than it was during its historic run 25 years ago!

Now, don't get me wrong. Given the price-capping antics of the cartel thugs, I certainly don't expect gold to blast off to eight or nine hundred bucks an ounce in the next two months (although anything is possible).

On the other hand, neither do I believe that such a short-lived run-up is likely this time around. In fact, we gold bugs have every reason to think that gold will—with periodic healthy corrections, of course—remain in a powerful overall uptrend for many years. The main point is that perhaps the gold cartel has far more reason to be nervous than we previously imagined...
Regards,
Derek

A little food for thought:

Hello Bill,
I’m often accused of being nuts, but I bought gold shares for pennys and there worth 10 bucks now. When the us dollar plunges and gold gets wild where will salt be? I work at a salt plant in northern Alberta owned by rohm-haas , the plant is 50 years old and is a beat-up, rundown piece of junk,,,, but,,, head office is now all of a sudden excited to re-build it. Very strange turn-around in behavior.
Brent Mosley

John Mauldin, a nice fellow, got me going with his comments last week. He openly says the currency markets are manipulated. Then, he pooh-poohs GATA. Makes no sense.

DailyReckoning.com
Wednesday, November 10, 2004

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/…dy_index3.cfm&qs=id=10759

……..Secondly, we should take note that currencies are the one market in the world where profit is not the end game. In stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, and anything else that moves, the object is to make a profit.

Currencies are a manipulated market. They are manipulated by the central banks of sovereign nations, which make decisions about what the level their own currency should be for the own economic and political purposes. That makes them volatile and very difficult to predict in the short term…

-END-

From the horse’s mouth – a veteran Café member and first rate geologist to another Café member, Eric Hommelberg:

In a message dated 11/14/04 10:46:03 PM Central Standard Time, writes:

I'm the geologist friend of Bill Murphy who wrote to you earlier, about the reserve replacement problems that the majors are facing. I can give you a first hand update, again, with some fresh new ideas.

I worked for Homestake for 5 years, for Barrick for 5 years, and much of the rest of the time for small companies. In 1998, the companies started laying off geologists, steadily and more each year. This continued through 2002. At that point, the bottom of the gold market, they thought they had it made in the shade. What they didn't realize at that time was that they had lost much of the cream of the industry, since they were very picky about hiring the best people in the industry to start with. At the bottom, of course, they realized that soon, if the market recovered, that they were going to have to rehire geological and engineering staff. The only problem was that many of these people retired and took city jobs at Home Depot, with the government, etc. These people were out of the market. The companies could not find top notch people to hire.. The gold price started to move up, and went up steadily (the breaking of the "cup and handle" pattern). The big companies gave a weak effort trying to find new employees, at sub-par salary levels (e.g. Newmont Elko). The gold price kept going up, and,,,,, all of a sudden,,, there was a new force in the market. Junior companies.

Now something unexpected happened, the Juniors started stealing the remaining top level geologists that the big companies had, such as Alan Branham (Midway Gold) and Marcus Johnston (Victoria Resources) of Newmont. Even Barrick just lost one of its top two mine geologists at Goldstrike to a barite exploration company! Another large company has hired geologists from peripheral government staffs to make up a shortfall.

Right now, the majors are faced with in-house staffs of declining quality, in a market that demands that they hire more top quality geos to replace their declining ore reserves. They can't compete with the juniors, who pay higher salaries, give more stock options, and have better work positions to attract new people with. In the meantime, the juniors will continue to steal the remaining good big company geos! In this no-win scenario, the major companies, especially Newmont and Barrick, will be forced to look to juniors mto acquire the exploration opportunities that they themselves will not be able to find or explore for. It is a supply-demand situation that the majors cannot win.

As a biased aside, Eric, I've just started up a new junior exploration company that will focus on Nevada and Mexico world-class opportunities in gold and silver. We're being underwritten by Haywood and Wolverton, and will come out of the gate with 3 good properties: 1) Chuchu-Estrella, Mexico (see my website at http://www.rmicgold.com ) , 2) Poker Flats, Nevada, which is located immediately adjacent and on strike with Newmont's new to be constructed Emigrant Springs Mine, and 3) a good property located next to the Round Mountain Mine, which has potential for high-grade silver and gold veins as well as a bulk-tonnage Round Mountain-analog target. Mexivada will also look for any world-class opportunity available, around the world, and I have contacts everywhere. I'm presently trying to horn in on a world-class gold/diamond target in an unexplored place in the world, unknown to big companies, which would open the eyes of investors around the world. We're aiming toward a public IPO on the TSX-V in the first quarter 2005, and now are going to start off with a 3-4M share private placement at C$0.30 (with a half warrant attached), and then do the IPO at 50c. The publicity will be augmented by founding partner Michael Schaefer of the Secret Stock Files, who has a large coterie of eager investors. Haywood is taking half the 30c offering, and Wolverton also will take a good chunk. If you two gentlemen would like to participate, I'll arrange to save you a block of shares each.

Thanks for listening!

Best regards, Rick Redern
rmicgold@frontiernet.net

The gold shares continue to stink up the place. The HUI can’t stay above 240 for anything. It fell 4.90 to 236.96, while the XAU lost 1.50 to 107.09.

One other key point which caught my attention in New Orleans was how $400 gold doesn’t cut it any more for strong gold company profitability. Costs have risen too much. In general the industry now needs $450+ gold.

Anyone can see how hard the corrupt Gold Cartel is doing what they can to keep gold from going to where it ought to. They have convinced most of the gold world they are going to win again – that gold will tank and the specs will be trashed.

As mentioned $15 ago on the downside, seems too pat to me. Too many bears out there. Last year at the NO conference, bulls were everywhere. Not this year and the price is much higher. My bet remains the same. We have an explosion before we get any sort of meaningful correction.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

US Dlr Crisis Could Catapult Gold Over $600

By Jim Hawe

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The price of gold could surge to levels not seen since the early 1980s if a big chunk is taken out of the value of the U.S. dollar in coming years, one market insider says.

A further devaluation of the greenback by 20%-30% would make bullion more attractive as an alternative store of value and could propel the yellow meta over $600 a troy ounce, said Michael Kosares, founder and president of gold firm USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals Inc.

Kosares said crumbling confidence in the U.S. currency due to America's enormous budget and current-account deficits has left investors scampering for safe havens such as gold.

Phones at his Denver-based office have been ringing off the hook recently and there has been a sharp increase in requests for gold-investing information packets over his company's Internet site, he said.

"There has been increased buying by our regular customers, but also by a lot of first-time investors," said Kosares.

These investors have taken note that gold has been moving higher in a very tight inverse correlation to the drubbing of the U.S. dollar.

The author of "The ABCs of Gold Investing: Protecting Your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership" said the weak dollar trend will likely continue for the next four years with the Bush administration taking an almost benign stance toward the waning dollar.

"The euro bottomed against the dollar at 82 cents (October 2000) and has since peaked at around $1.30, an appreciation of 58%. In a similar manner, gold has risen 72% since its bottom," said Kosares. Gold hit a low of around $255 in April of 2001, but has been trading just under $440 in recent sessions.

The Wall Street Journal and Japan's Nikkei Financial Daily in recent days have both reported what currency traders have long suspected - that while the administration under President George W. Bush continues to say it favors a "strong dollar," it is happy to let the greenback fall. Barring increased U.S. saving or decreased consumption, a weaker dollar is one of the few remedies for the country's current-account gap.

The Nikkei report, in line with many economists' estimates, concluded the dollar would need to fall by 20%-30% to halve the ratio of the U.S. current account deficit to the gross domestic product - now near 6%.

This is the same 20%-30% devaluation Kosares said could kick gold over $600.

Dehedging - Backbone of Bull Market

In addition to the flagging U.S. currency, Kosares said market supply and demand fundamentals also offer some compelling reasons to get into gold.

One of the most promising developments has been the trend among mining companies to close out their hedge positions.

As gold prices fell during the 1990s, mining firms aggressively hedged some of their gold, essentially locking in fixed prices for a portion of their future production.

However, this strategy backfires when gold prices are on the rise as miners are still forced to sell the hedged portion at the promised prices.

However, this trend reversed from around 2001 as miners began actively dehedging, or buying back hedged gold, to give themselves greater exposure to the suddenly rising spot prices.

Kosares described the huge swing in hedging to dehedging as the "backbone of the current gold bull market."

And this trend is expected to continue. A GFMS report out last week stated that the global hedge book is still saddled with around 60.4 million ounces, or 1,877 tons, which is equivalent to 75% of annual mine production. Kosares said
this figure could actually be more than 2,000 tons.

Kosares said he believes miners will keep buying back their hedged gold in what he says will be like "having built-in market support for the next five years."

Going For The Gold Investment Advice

Looking ahead, Kosares said gold could be sitting in the $460s by the end of the year, with a move over $500 in 2005. A foray over $550 and even $600 is possible if the dollar loses another 20%-30%.

Gold opened Monday in Sydney at $437.20, compared with $437.85.

So just how much gold should investors be stuffing into their portfolios? Kosares said the commonly cited 5% weighting may be too small in light of the current environment and suggests placing 10% of one's portfolio in gold.

"Gold isn't so much an investment as it is a type of savings or insurance against currency devaluation," he said. "I think if you look at an investment pyramid you would have savings at the bottom and I think gold should be a part of that savings."

-By Jim Hawe, Dow Jones Newswires; 813-5255-2950; jim.hawe@dowjones.com

-Edited by Nick vonKlock