Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

All of this brings us back to something I discussed earlier. When the supply of shares of a stock is zero, the supply is zero. It doesn’t matter how you get there, be it by a naked short position or by the float being absorbed. This is where it all starts as a short squeeze will now be formed and grows as demand to purchase shares increase. This is where the misperception exists with Regulation Sho. People think that a new naked short position has to be created as of 3 Jan 05 in order for a stock to be eligible for protection and rectification under Regulation Sho. This is not true. It’s even better. All naked short positions of the past will not go away and must be dealt with. The clock begins ticking for covering on 3 Jan 05 for fully reporting companies. PERIOD!!! This means that any stock that has been naked shorted will automatically start out in a forced short squeeze mode that will only escalate the longer the MMs wait to cover.

Any buying pressure will cause the increase of the naked shorted position to grow to begin approaching the 5 day consecutive window of not getting covered by the MMs. After the 5 days transpire where the MMs have failed to deliver and close the open naked shorted position, that stock in which they failed to deliver will be placed on a Threshold Security List for the public to view. This is where it starts to get awesome.

Example: Let’s say stock ABCD, a fully reporting company, was trading at .01 cent and had an OS of 1,000,000 shares. Let’s say that stock ABCD have been naked shorted by 1,000,000 shares over the OS/float of 1,000,000 shares. Come 3 Jan 05 the MMs will not be forced to "possibly" immediately cover the 1,000,000 naked shorted shares. Here’s the beauty of this and where the MMs are currently mad at everyone about. Don’t worry, they will make money, but in a different way as we might talk about later.

With no buying pressure, they won’t have to cover as soon as one might have hoped as shares are sold exceeding the amount of shares being bought for stock ABCD. Still, if they don’t cover the "entire" 1,000,000 naked short position for 5 consecutive days, stock ABCD will show up on the Threshold Security List for the public to view on 10 Jan 05. After such, the MMs have 13 days to close out the "entire" naked shorted position or face being suspended and/or shut down from that security and other penalties to possibly put that MM out of business. The end result will still be the supply being zero and the stock would be forced to be traded correctly based on supply and demand with an already dried up supply. This means the creation of an instant short squeeze!

What I anticipate happening, and the SEC, is that in the above example with stock ABCD, the MMs will need to get the 1,000,000 naked shorted shares out of circulation by increasing the bid to entice shareholders to sell. The problem comes when they allow for the buying to outweigh the selling due to increased demand for the stock. As orders are placed to buy shares, they must be filled by the MMs. This will worsen their problem when nobody is selling. As the MMs make the mistake and allow for any stock to be placed on the Threshold Security List, it will publicly reveal where the MMs are already having a problem in covering. Us as shareholders will see this list and contribute with forcing the short squeezes for every stock on the list.

If they raised stock ABCD to .50 cents and there was more buying than selling than no ground would have been gained by the MMs. They only gain ground when there is more selling than buying that exists.

IMPORTANT: So where is the "Threshold Security List" that we all will be looking for? This is how we all get a chance to help the MMs reap what they sowed. Go to…

http://www.nasdaq.com

… to see the Threshold Security list beginning on 10 Jan 05 and review it daily. Any stock that you see on that list "should" immediately present a wonderful buying opportunity by being in an instant short squeeze scenario. The MM guilty of the naked shorting will have a hard time from not generating enough selling by enticing the bid high enough for shareholders to sell to out weigh the buying to allow for a covering to transpire.

Again, I do not believe that all MMs are bad and I am not posting this to lead some type of crusade against the MMs. Remember, all we ever wanted was for the MMs to trade the stocks we invest into fairly as investor/traders in the market. Without the MMs, there would not be a market and all the SEC is doing is making sure the MMs create and maintain an orderly market, fairly. This Regulation Sho is something that is long over due.

The Shorting
The shorting of stocks are referring to the Pilot Program that was delayed to begin on 2 May 05 and will last for one year through 2 May 06. This is where they will be selecting 1,000 stocks to use for an SEC experiment that they call the "Tick Test."

Example: Imagine stock ABCD trading at $10.00 per share. Let’s say you now decide to short stock ABCD at $10.00 per share by buying through shorting 1,000 shares. You really just borrowed $10,000 to short stock ABCD to buy 1,000 shares. Two days later, let’s say stock ABCD drops to trade at $8.00 per share. You now decide to cover your short in stock ABCD and sell your 1,000 shares back to the market to have them delivered at $8.00 per share for a total of $8,000. You cover by paying back the 1,000 shares you borrowed, but since the price dropped down to $8.00 per share, your cost for paying back the 1,000 shares of stock ABCD will be $8,000. Since it’s mostly all about the share amount and not the dollar amount for covering in the eyes of the MM, you would profit the $2,000 difference from using the proper timing for delivery of the 1,000 shares.

The SEC will be doing a study on 1,000 stocks while examining these stocks to see how and why certain problems have existed throughout the market with the delivery of the shorted positions. What they have come to find out is that there is a problem that exists with somebody shorting a stock as reflected above and never delivering the funds to cover the shorted position whether the stock goes up or down. They have come to find out that somewhere and somehow the intentions to later deliver never existed. The Pilot program is being designed to get to the bottom of this.

The opportunity that we have here with the rectification of the naked shorting and shorting of stocks is something that will go down in history for the better in fixing something that was broke for a long time. The primary objective is to have an orderly and fair market for those stocks that are legitimate and trying to actually grow to trade fairly on its own merit of supply and demand principles and not on manipulation of choice.

Bottom line, any stock falling under the protection umbrella of Regulation Sho will automatically begin trading under a short squeeze scenario due to its supply of shares immediately being zero. How huge the short squeeze materializes is predicated upon how soon or how long the MM that is guilty of naked shorting decides to take for covering. Whenever the "demand for buying" exceeds the "demand for selling" within that naked shorted security, the MM will have a very difficult time in covering by the mandated time frames allocated. Added buying pressure will only compound the dilemma for the MM.

I am expecting Jan 05 to be the best month in the history of the market for opportunities for prosperity because of Regulation Sho. We are about to be part of a positive piece of history. I hope the above info have helped many to see what is the importance of making sure you are positioned and well planned for strategic moves to be made in the market to capture the opportunity for prosperity. We all must prepare and plan now if we can afford to do so. People don’t plan on failing, they fail to plan. May we all become prosperous!

http://www.investorshub.com/bo…sg.asp?message_id=4916651

Thank You
Irish good luck to us all............................................

http://www.sec.gov/divisions/marketreg/mrfaqregsho1204.htm

Eichel macht Druck auf die Bundesbank, Gold zu verkaufen. Mich macht allerdings stutzig, dass Eichel mit dem Höchststand des Goldpreises argumentiert. Aus deutscher Sicht (Euroraum) ist der Goldpreis nämlich gar nicht so hoch. Eichels Argumente sind die Argumente aus amerikanischer Sicht. Ein Schelm, wer böses dabei denkt.

Das zweite Argument, dass Gold keine Zinsen bringe, ist in Anbetracht der Goldausleihungen der Vergangenheit eine glatte Lüge.

Gruß, UL

8 Tonnen will die Buba verkaufen. Das heißt, daß man mit einer Gesamtauflage von 500 Tsd. Goldmünzen plant (zu je 1/2 Unze), zuletzt waren es nur 400 Tsd.
Da dürfte es mit der schnellen Mark im Wiederverkauf wohl nichts werden.

Gruß
cabrito

Unlimited,
da hast Du natürlich recht. Schon seltsam. Entweder weiß er es wirklich nicht besser, oder... . Was mich ebenfalls verwundert ist die Tatsache, dass die 1 Milliarde Euro, die durch den Verkauf der 120t eingenommen werden sollen,doch nur ein Tropfen auf den heißen Stein sind.
Hier erkennt man mal wieder die Kurzsichtigkeit unsere Volksvertreter...
Hoffen wir mal, dass die BuBa standhaft bleiben wird.

Hier nochmal der Link zu Eichels Kommentaren.

December 28 – Gold $444.10 down 90 cents – Silver $7 up 5 cents

Silver Pops/Cartel Capping Remains Relentless

"If you can't convince them, confuse them."
Harry S. Truman

Not too much to bring your way today. What stuck out the most was the failure of the disappearing dollar to recover on a very positive US Consumer Confidence number:

10:00 Dec. Consumer Confidence reported 102.3 vs. consensus 94
Prior reading 90.5.
* * * * *

The staunch, renewed confidence of the US consumer did not extend to foreigners' confidence in the value of the US dollar. After recent sharp setbacks, the rally in the greenback on good news was anemic. Closes:

*Dollar – 80.80, up .02
*Euro – 136.22, down .06
*Pound – 191.98 down .43
*Yen – rose to 103.05

Meanwhile, the euro gold price closed in new low ground for the move at 325.89.

What also stuck out was the degree to which The Gold Cartel went after gold yesterday to keep it from doing what it normally would have if allowed to trade freely – without the 500 pound Gorilla sitting on it all session long on the Comex. The gold open interest rose sharply in holiday market conditions by 9501 contracts to 329,038. This is how much firepower the bums had to throw at gold to keep it from soaring above $445. It is also the reason the gold euro price went down yesterday, as well as today.

Without question this is the most important factor in the gold market these days and yet the dingbats in the mainstream gold world refuse to discuss it. What good is any sort of analysis when one leaves out the most important factor of the analysis? We’re back to The Stepford Wives/Matrix sort of syndrome again. The gold people are in their own La-La Land world. The massive rigging of the price of gold doesn’t exist because they don’t want it to. They only see what they want to see. Reality is their own set of facts which keeps them from confronting the truth. What a bunch of horses’ butts.

Silver was firm the entire trading session. We are getting to guts ball time here. Veteran Café members will recall last spring one of our best sources reported that China tied up 75% of the 2005 silver supply via various derivatives maneuvers. If that information was correct, then the price of silver MUST begin to take off sometime in January. There will be nothing The Gold Cartel and silver price managers will be able to do to stop a price explosion. During the next few weeks, I will see if I can get our source to follow up on this old input to determine if the information is still valid. Nothing to bet the ranch on yet, unless it is confirmed.

The silver open interest put on 1349 contracts to 99,373.

Many of us are disgusted with our share price performances this year. With good reason. Yet, gold coin/bullion owners in the US are smiling and ought to be pleased with their gains. YTD advances:

*Bullion – 8%
*DOW – 3+%
*S&P – 9%

How ironic. The US stock market manages to recover this year and move up modestly. As a result, bulls are everywhere on Wall Street and Main Street. Complacency about the future of our stock market is astoundingly high. Yet, gold is putting in its third impressive up year in a row and almost no one is bullish for the short-term.

How strange it is that so many investors are in love with this:

DOW monthly
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/DJ/M

And, at the same time most could care less about this:

Gold monthly
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/M

If the gold chart represented the DOW, can you imagine how giddy Wall Street and the US investing public would be? They would be having parades.

Oh well, that’s not the way it is, which is a significant reason to be so gold bullish for 2005. Markets don’t crap out when sentiment is so abysmal. Besides, the major factors which will affect the gold price next year are all becoming more prominent:

*The financial condition of the US Government, as evidenced by our worsening deficits, is becoming more troublesome.

*The US dollar is headed further south.

*Iraq is slowly developing into a full-blown fiasco.

*The Gold Cartel is gradually running out of available gold supply to meet the monthly supply/demand deficit. A concrete example of this is Germany’s recent decision not to sell their gold.

This is a recipe for a gold price explosion, not a gold price collapse. The gold price is headed MUCH higher, be it next month or four months from now. Time to keep loading the boat.

The John Brimelow Report

Continued substantial NY (year-end?) selling

Tuesday, December 28

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.57, PM $6.82, with world gold at $444.70 and $445. Ample for legal imports. (The PM premium is from Madras, normally a little lower than Bombay, which was not provided by Reuters)

The Bombay Stock Exchange scored yet another record high, and the rupee firmed once again to $1 = R43.705. It is now virtually back at the early December high of R43.65, after which it will be tackling 8 month highs. The locals are very pleased with declining oil prices; once again, lower oil nowadays translates immediately into a firmer bid for bullion by the world’s largest importer.

TOCOM had a very quiet half day, only trading the equivalent of 9,932 Comex lots

(-34%); the active contract edged up 3 yen and world gold was 40c above the NY close; open interest slipped the equivalent of 138 Comex to equal 110,627 Comex. Japan is now closed until next Tuesday.

Yesterday’s modest Comex trading statistics were nevertheless startling: 23,787 lots traded, double the estimate, and open interest leapt an astonishing 9,508 contracts to 329,038, an increase of 29.6 tonnes. Even if one imagines some of this may somehow have been unrecorded activity from the 23rd (which is reported to have traded 23,644 lots, but with an open increase of only 74 lots) the fact appears to be that quite serious fresh selling was met by resolute new buying. (The sequence is expressed this way because on both days Asian firmness was reversed during NY hours.)

This is of course consistent with the view expressed here that gold is being capped by a determined seller below $445, who is however, being repeatedly challenged by buying emanating from the key physical markets.

The ECB reported today an E17Mm sale by a captive Central bank last week, which implies only a couple of tonnes.

Gold, of course is trading divergently to the Euro, and the base metals, but it is taking quite some effort to achieve this. With the Indian market so steadily a buyer, it seems plausible that this capping effort is related to the year end, and that gold will resume its upward trudge next week.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The US stock market wasted little time resuming its upward advance. The DOW gained 78 to 10,854, while the DOG jumped 23 to 2177. Both indices went into new high ground.

Not much confidence emanating here:

Number of Firms Expecting Future Employment Increases is Lowest in 11 Months

ALEXANDRIA, Va., Dec. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- December numbers from the Leading Indicator of National Employment (LINE) indicate that new job growth in the manufacturing sector continued to slow over the last month, and is expected to stall further in January. LINE is a project between the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) and Rutgers University.
Overall December LINE data indicates that while job growth continues, it has substantially slowed since last July. And while manufacturers continue to recruit for open positions, skill shortages have not been severe enough to cause them to increase overall new-hire compensation.
Concerns about the fragility of the economic recovery may be causing firms to delay the creation of new positions. In addition, recruiting workers with the appropriate skills may be slowing the pace at which firms are able to fill the vacancies that currently exist. More than a third of the responding firms reported increases between November and December in the number of job vacancies that they are actively recruiting to fill….

-END-

A bunch of goodies:

The King Report
M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
Tuesday Dec. 28, 2004 – Issue 3065 "Independent View of the News"

A confluence of events, technical developments and seasonal pressures produced significant moves in various markets on Monday. The biblical-like disaster in Sumatra fostered concern that Asian capital would stay in Asia instead of flowing to support Americans’ conspicuous consumption.

This excited the big macro funds because it encouraged them to further bash the dollar. Because the short-dollar position is the grandest in the entire known universe, the big hedgies strongly desire to push it as low as possible for yearend. With the Dollar Index (80.72) within striking distance of the immensely critical 80 support, the big macro boys & girls are growing incontinent about pushing the buck lower.

The Dollar Index is now near the 1991, 1992 and 1995 lows. The dollar commenced a six-year rally in April 1995 when the BoJ instituted its zero-interest rate policy. When viewed over the last 18+ years, the current dollar collapse, which began in early 2002, is abjectly disturbing.

The latest available data shows that foreigners are no longer investing/recycling enough money in the US to cover the trade deficit…The NY Post’s John Crudele, in his column today, writes that the US Treasury released it report on US finances on 12/15. The report shows that the US budget on an accrual basis is well north of $600B, while debt and future obligation are up a few trillion. http://www.nypost.com/

Now that a historic winter storm that engulfed much of the US has passed and weather reports show unseasonably warm weather will hit much of the US in midweek, spasmodic traders rabidly sold energy products, felling oil by more than $3. Ain’t high finance grand?

As we mentioned last week, because most everyone knows that stocks will rally into yearend and into at least early January. Wall Street and the fin media have already commenced grandiose stock market projections for 2005. Ergo, bullish sentiment is so endemic that the day trading lemmings and wise guys have been pouring into stocks on the open the past few weeks. This manic action often produces the daily high within the first 45 minutes of trading…Monday’s high occurred 6 minutes after the open. Yesterday, those traders, plus those inculcated with bullish Monday modeling, were surprised that fundamentals and events could actually usurp alchemy.

Washington Post Christmas Eve editorial: "The Holiday Season has suffused the stock market, which has bubbled exuberantly to its highest level in 3 1/2 years. Americans who own stocks can count themselves a bit richer, which means they can spend a bit more freely, which means that corporate profits will brighten -- which means that the stock market might just keep heading up. But this perpetual motion machine has a flaw in its engine. The more it accelerates, the nastier the potential consequences if it seizes up. The flaw is that American consumption is based on borrowing: People are spending money that they don't actually have. The nation's net borrowing from foreigners has risen to a massive 6 percent or so of gross domestic product, up from 4 percent in 2000, a level that was then considered dangerously high." http://www.washingtonpost.com/…Dec23.html?referrer=email

As we have been warning, the situation in Iraq is worsening and should continue to deteriorate as the 1/30 elections near. Two important articles concerning Iraq appeared over the Christmas break. Bob Novak writes that Bill Kristol and other ‘neocons’ are trying to pin the mess in Iraq on Rumsfeld. The neocons are reputedly the impetus that cajoled Bush into invading Iraq. Now, Kristol writes that the Iraq attack was the right thing to do but Rumsfeld is mismanaging the situation. This transparent attempt to salvage reputations and place blame by leading advocates of the Iraq operation strongly suggests that neocons are deeply concerned that Iraq problems could worsen significantly.

To bolster our deduction is a second report; this one in the Washington Post. Thomas E. Ricks and Robin Wright write, "Secretary of State Colin L. Powell told President Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair last month that there were too few troops in Iraq, according to people familiar with official records of the meeting." As we often mention, Powell is a copious leaker who tends to be very active just ahead of situations that he deems could tarnish his reputation. So he gets on the record in a manner that inoculates him. http://www.washingtonpost.com/…l?referrer%3Demail&sub=AR

The Washington Post’s Walter Pincus: "While insurgents in Iraq have placed informants inside the Iraqi government, the U.S. and Iraqi militaries, coalition contractors, and international news organizations, the United States is having serious intelligence problems in Iraq, according to sources inside and outside the U.S. government." http://www.washingtonpost.com/…Dec23.html?referrer=email

"Energy shortages of every stripe bedevil this country, which sits atop the world's second-largest petroleum reserves. Electricity shuts off for whole days. Prices of scarce cooking fuel have risen nine-fold. And gas lines this month reached new lengths, creating yet another venue for violence. At least two men have been killed in Baghdad over places in line or allegations of watering down the goods."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/…Dec23.html?referrer=email

Tom Ricks: "The U.S. military invaded Iraq without a formal plan for occupying and stabilizing the country and this high-level failure continues to undercut what has been a "mediocre" Army effort there, an Army historian and strategist has concluded." http://www.washingtonpost.com/…Dec24.html?referrer=email

The Washington Post’s Steve Wiesman: "The Bush administration is talking to Iraqi leaders about guaranteeing Sunni Arabs a certain number of ministries or high-level jobs in the future Iraqi government if, as is widely predicted, Sunni candidates fail to do well in Iraq's elections." http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12…iddleeast/26diplo.html?th

"Rumsfeld says 9-11 plane 'shot down' in Pennsylvania - During surprise Christmas Eve trip, defense secretary contradicts official story" http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=42112

-END-

This oil news went under the radar screen for most:

Hugo Chavez has been in China this week and it appears that, like the Chinese oil deal with Iran, China has agreed to terms to take all the oil Venezuela can produce...actually all the oil CHINA can produce there. The Chinese will be running the oil fields. This is a stroke of pure strategic brilliance on Chavez's part. He doesn't have to put up with the thieves from Houston and he doesn't have to make expenditures for production infrastructure ...plus he just picked up some serious muscle. If the US wants to continue attempting to overthrow his government and assassinate him, they will now have to deal with China. I can hear the teeth grinding in Washington all the way over here.

The US is blowing all of its strategic oil alliances because it got greedy. "Ya say you need some oil, George? Sorry, we're sold out for the next 50 years." Gasoline is going to be getting very expensive in the states.

Don Duca
Moissac, France

Venezuela Widens Its Importers List
27.12.2004 6:01

Venezuela’s president Hugo Chavez has offered China a full access to the country's oil reserves. His offer was made in the network of a trade deal between the two countries.

The offer will allow China to operate oil fields in Venezuela and invest in new refineries. Venezuela has also offered to supply 120,000 barrels of fuel oil a month to China.

Venezuela, which sells 60 percent of its oil to the US, and has a strained relationship with the US ay the same time, now tries to diversify its export partners range to reduce its dependence on its largest export market.

[Neftegaz.ru]

http://www.neftegaz.ru/english/lenta/show.php?id=53108

-END-

Eric Hommelberg sends us some plums from the Netherlands:

Hi Bill,
Lots of Gold letter writers are calling for another leg down in Gold shares. I simply can’t disagree more. The Gold/HUI ratio indicates that the weakness in Gold shares is over and in fact the Gold/ HUI ratio issues a BUY for Gold shares right now. On Dec 8 I send a Gold/HUI chart suggesting that the HUI bottom would be very near based on historical data suggesting that extreme weakness in PM shares reflected by RSI tops in the Gold/HUI charts exceeding 70 won’t stay there for a long period of time. Now let’s have a look at an updated Gold/HUI chart :

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/Midas122804A.gif]

So based on its own history we could suggest :

PM shares do bottom at RSI tops > 70 of the Gold/HUI ratio.
RSI tops > 70 mark the beginning of an uptrend in PM shares lasting 2 to 9 month.
Each rally in PM shares which started from a RSI top >70 gained 50 to 130%.
RSI tops > 70 have a very short life span (less than two weeks)
Right now RSI crossed the 70 mark again, so PM shares bottoming within two weeks ?
Expected minimum gain of HUI is 50% within three month, so HUI >300 before end of Q1 2005

Now when we zoom in on the last year of the Gold/HUI chart you should notice that PM shares are a BUY indeed :

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/Midas122804B.gif]

So what to do now when the PM shares are so dirt cheap ?

Well, load the boat with your favorite junior gold mining shares. Why ?

Because they are trading at fire sale prices now and will be rewarded soon. Remember that 75% of all discoveries are made by juniors and that the major producers are facing a decline in gold reserves so they’ll have to go after the juniors. As an investor you should do the same.

I know the sentiment is terrible these days regarding juniors, but that makes them dirt cheap. Same sentiment we witnessed in Dec 2002. In my piece ‘2003 - Year of the juniors’ I wrote :

Profits of 100 – 1000 % are in the pipeline next year if invested in high quality junior mining companies. END

Well, that’s exactly what happened. Now, two years later I would say the same for the year of 2005. But remember, in order to enjoy a multiple 100% profit next year you’ll have to buy low, and that’s NOW !

Readers interested in the gold drivers 2005 PDF (finished chapters) can still drop a mail.
Best, Eric
ehommelberg@planet.nl