Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

8 Tonnen will die Buba verkaufen. Das heißt, daß man mit einer Gesamtauflage von 500 Tsd. Goldmünzen plant (zu je 1/2 Unze), zuletzt waren es nur 400 Tsd.
Da dürfte es mit der schnellen Mark im Wiederverkauf wohl nichts werden.

Gruß
cabrito

Unlimited,
da hast Du natürlich recht. Schon seltsam. Entweder weiß er es wirklich nicht besser, oder... . Was mich ebenfalls verwundert ist die Tatsache, dass die 1 Milliarde Euro, die durch den Verkauf der 120t eingenommen werden sollen,doch nur ein Tropfen auf den heißen Stein sind.
Hier erkennt man mal wieder die Kurzsichtigkeit unsere Volksvertreter...
Hoffen wir mal, dass die BuBa standhaft bleiben wird.

Hier nochmal der Link zu Eichels Kommentaren.

December 28 – Gold $444.10 down 90 cents – Silver $7 up 5 cents

Silver Pops/Cartel Capping Remains Relentless

"If you can't convince them, confuse them."
Harry S. Truman

Not too much to bring your way today. What stuck out the most was the failure of the disappearing dollar to recover on a very positive US Consumer Confidence number:

10:00 Dec. Consumer Confidence reported 102.3 vs. consensus 94
Prior reading 90.5.
* * * * *

The staunch, renewed confidence of the US consumer did not extend to foreigners' confidence in the value of the US dollar. After recent sharp setbacks, the rally in the greenback on good news was anemic. Closes:

*Dollar – 80.80, up .02
*Euro – 136.22, down .06
*Pound – 191.98 down .43
*Yen – rose to 103.05

Meanwhile, the euro gold price closed in new low ground for the move at 325.89.

What also stuck out was the degree to which The Gold Cartel went after gold yesterday to keep it from doing what it normally would have if allowed to trade freely – without the 500 pound Gorilla sitting on it all session long on the Comex. The gold open interest rose sharply in holiday market conditions by 9501 contracts to 329,038. This is how much firepower the bums had to throw at gold to keep it from soaring above $445. It is also the reason the gold euro price went down yesterday, as well as today.

Without question this is the most important factor in the gold market these days and yet the dingbats in the mainstream gold world refuse to discuss it. What good is any sort of analysis when one leaves out the most important factor of the analysis? We’re back to The Stepford Wives/Matrix sort of syndrome again. The gold people are in their own La-La Land world. The massive rigging of the price of gold doesn’t exist because they don’t want it to. They only see what they want to see. Reality is their own set of facts which keeps them from confronting the truth. What a bunch of horses’ butts.

Silver was firm the entire trading session. We are getting to guts ball time here. Veteran Café members will recall last spring one of our best sources reported that China tied up 75% of the 2005 silver supply via various derivatives maneuvers. If that information was correct, then the price of silver MUST begin to take off sometime in January. There will be nothing The Gold Cartel and silver price managers will be able to do to stop a price explosion. During the next few weeks, I will see if I can get our source to follow up on this old input to determine if the information is still valid. Nothing to bet the ranch on yet, unless it is confirmed.

The silver open interest put on 1349 contracts to 99,373.

Many of us are disgusted with our share price performances this year. With good reason. Yet, gold coin/bullion owners in the US are smiling and ought to be pleased with their gains. YTD advances:

*Bullion – 8%
*DOW – 3+%
*S&P – 9%

How ironic. The US stock market manages to recover this year and move up modestly. As a result, bulls are everywhere on Wall Street and Main Street. Complacency about the future of our stock market is astoundingly high. Yet, gold is putting in its third impressive up year in a row and almost no one is bullish for the short-term.

How strange it is that so many investors are in love with this:

DOW monthly
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/DJ/M

And, at the same time most could care less about this:

Gold monthly
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/M

If the gold chart represented the DOW, can you imagine how giddy Wall Street and the US investing public would be? They would be having parades.

Oh well, that’s not the way it is, which is a significant reason to be so gold bullish for 2005. Markets don’t crap out when sentiment is so abysmal. Besides, the major factors which will affect the gold price next year are all becoming more prominent:

*The financial condition of the US Government, as evidenced by our worsening deficits, is becoming more troublesome.

*The US dollar is headed further south.

*Iraq is slowly developing into a full-blown fiasco.

*The Gold Cartel is gradually running out of available gold supply to meet the monthly supply/demand deficit. A concrete example of this is Germany’s recent decision not to sell their gold.

This is a recipe for a gold price explosion, not a gold price collapse. The gold price is headed MUCH higher, be it next month or four months from now. Time to keep loading the boat.

The John Brimelow Report

Continued substantial NY (year-end?) selling

Tuesday, December 28

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.57, PM $6.82, with world gold at $444.70 and $445. Ample for legal imports. (The PM premium is from Madras, normally a little lower than Bombay, which was not provided by Reuters)

The Bombay Stock Exchange scored yet another record high, and the rupee firmed once again to $1 = R43.705. It is now virtually back at the early December high of R43.65, after which it will be tackling 8 month highs. The locals are very pleased with declining oil prices; once again, lower oil nowadays translates immediately into a firmer bid for bullion by the world’s largest importer.

TOCOM had a very quiet half day, only trading the equivalent of 9,932 Comex lots

(-34%); the active contract edged up 3 yen and world gold was 40c above the NY close; open interest slipped the equivalent of 138 Comex to equal 110,627 Comex. Japan is now closed until next Tuesday.

Yesterday’s modest Comex trading statistics were nevertheless startling: 23,787 lots traded, double the estimate, and open interest leapt an astonishing 9,508 contracts to 329,038, an increase of 29.6 tonnes. Even if one imagines some of this may somehow have been unrecorded activity from the 23rd (which is reported to have traded 23,644 lots, but with an open increase of only 74 lots) the fact appears to be that quite serious fresh selling was met by resolute new buying. (The sequence is expressed this way because on both days Asian firmness was reversed during NY hours.)

This is of course consistent with the view expressed here that gold is being capped by a determined seller below $445, who is however, being repeatedly challenged by buying emanating from the key physical markets.

The ECB reported today an E17Mm sale by a captive Central bank last week, which implies only a couple of tonnes.

Gold, of course is trading divergently to the Euro, and the base metals, but it is taking quite some effort to achieve this. With the Indian market so steadily a buyer, it seems plausible that this capping effort is related to the year end, and that gold will resume its upward trudge next week.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The US stock market wasted little time resuming its upward advance. The DOW gained 78 to 10,854, while the DOG jumped 23 to 2177. Both indices went into new high ground.

Not much confidence emanating here:

Number of Firms Expecting Future Employment Increases is Lowest in 11 Months

ALEXANDRIA, Va., Dec. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- December numbers from the Leading Indicator of National Employment (LINE) indicate that new job growth in the manufacturing sector continued to slow over the last month, and is expected to stall further in January. LINE is a project between the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) and Rutgers University.
Overall December LINE data indicates that while job growth continues, it has substantially slowed since last July. And while manufacturers continue to recruit for open positions, skill shortages have not been severe enough to cause them to increase overall new-hire compensation.
Concerns about the fragility of the economic recovery may be causing firms to delay the creation of new positions. In addition, recruiting workers with the appropriate skills may be slowing the pace at which firms are able to fill the vacancies that currently exist. More than a third of the responding firms reported increases between November and December in the number of job vacancies that they are actively recruiting to fill….

-END-

A bunch of goodies:

The King Report
M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
Tuesday Dec. 28, 2004 – Issue 3065 "Independent View of the News"

A confluence of events, technical developments and seasonal pressures produced significant moves in various markets on Monday. The biblical-like disaster in Sumatra fostered concern that Asian capital would stay in Asia instead of flowing to support Americans’ conspicuous consumption.

This excited the big macro funds because it encouraged them to further bash the dollar. Because the short-dollar position is the grandest in the entire known universe, the big hedgies strongly desire to push it as low as possible for yearend. With the Dollar Index (80.72) within striking distance of the immensely critical 80 support, the big macro boys & girls are growing incontinent about pushing the buck lower.

The Dollar Index is now near the 1991, 1992 and 1995 lows. The dollar commenced a six-year rally in April 1995 when the BoJ instituted its zero-interest rate policy. When viewed over the last 18+ years, the current dollar collapse, which began in early 2002, is abjectly disturbing.

The latest available data shows that foreigners are no longer investing/recycling enough money in the US to cover the trade deficit…The NY Post’s John Crudele, in his column today, writes that the US Treasury released it report on US finances on 12/15. The report shows that the US budget on an accrual basis is well north of $600B, while debt and future obligation are up a few trillion. http://www.nypost.com/

Now that a historic winter storm that engulfed much of the US has passed and weather reports show unseasonably warm weather will hit much of the US in midweek, spasmodic traders rabidly sold energy products, felling oil by more than $3. Ain’t high finance grand?

As we mentioned last week, because most everyone knows that stocks will rally into yearend and into at least early January. Wall Street and the fin media have already commenced grandiose stock market projections for 2005. Ergo, bullish sentiment is so endemic that the day trading lemmings and wise guys have been pouring into stocks on the open the past few weeks. This manic action often produces the daily high within the first 45 minutes of trading…Monday’s high occurred 6 minutes after the open. Yesterday, those traders, plus those inculcated with bullish Monday modeling, were surprised that fundamentals and events could actually usurp alchemy.

Washington Post Christmas Eve editorial: "The Holiday Season has suffused the stock market, which has bubbled exuberantly to its highest level in 3 1/2 years. Americans who own stocks can count themselves a bit richer, which means they can spend a bit more freely, which means that corporate profits will brighten -- which means that the stock market might just keep heading up. But this perpetual motion machine has a flaw in its engine. The more it accelerates, the nastier the potential consequences if it seizes up. The flaw is that American consumption is based on borrowing: People are spending money that they don't actually have. The nation's net borrowing from foreigners has risen to a massive 6 percent or so of gross domestic product, up from 4 percent in 2000, a level that was then considered dangerously high." http://www.washingtonpost.com/…Dec23.html?referrer=email

As we have been warning, the situation in Iraq is worsening and should continue to deteriorate as the 1/30 elections near. Two important articles concerning Iraq appeared over the Christmas break. Bob Novak writes that Bill Kristol and other ‘neocons’ are trying to pin the mess in Iraq on Rumsfeld. The neocons are reputedly the impetus that cajoled Bush into invading Iraq. Now, Kristol writes that the Iraq attack was the right thing to do but Rumsfeld is mismanaging the situation. This transparent attempt to salvage reputations and place blame by leading advocates of the Iraq operation strongly suggests that neocons are deeply concerned that Iraq problems could worsen significantly.

To bolster our deduction is a second report; this one in the Washington Post. Thomas E. Ricks and Robin Wright write, "Secretary of State Colin L. Powell told President Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair last month that there were too few troops in Iraq, according to people familiar with official records of the meeting." As we often mention, Powell is a copious leaker who tends to be very active just ahead of situations that he deems could tarnish his reputation. So he gets on the record in a manner that inoculates him. http://www.washingtonpost.com/…l?referrer%3Demail&sub=AR

The Washington Post’s Walter Pincus: "While insurgents in Iraq have placed informants inside the Iraqi government, the U.S. and Iraqi militaries, coalition contractors, and international news organizations, the United States is having serious intelligence problems in Iraq, according to sources inside and outside the U.S. government." http://www.washingtonpost.com/…Dec23.html?referrer=email

"Energy shortages of every stripe bedevil this country, which sits atop the world's second-largest petroleum reserves. Electricity shuts off for whole days. Prices of scarce cooking fuel have risen nine-fold. And gas lines this month reached new lengths, creating yet another venue for violence. At least two men have been killed in Baghdad over places in line or allegations of watering down the goods."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/…Dec23.html?referrer=email

Tom Ricks: "The U.S. military invaded Iraq without a formal plan for occupying and stabilizing the country and this high-level failure continues to undercut what has been a "mediocre" Army effort there, an Army historian and strategist has concluded." http://www.washingtonpost.com/…Dec24.html?referrer=email

The Washington Post’s Steve Wiesman: "The Bush administration is talking to Iraqi leaders about guaranteeing Sunni Arabs a certain number of ministries or high-level jobs in the future Iraqi government if, as is widely predicted, Sunni candidates fail to do well in Iraq's elections." http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12…iddleeast/26diplo.html?th

"Rumsfeld says 9-11 plane 'shot down' in Pennsylvania - During surprise Christmas Eve trip, defense secretary contradicts official story" http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=42112

-END-

This oil news went under the radar screen for most:

Hugo Chavez has been in China this week and it appears that, like the Chinese oil deal with Iran, China has agreed to terms to take all the oil Venezuela can produce...actually all the oil CHINA can produce there. The Chinese will be running the oil fields. This is a stroke of pure strategic brilliance on Chavez's part. He doesn't have to put up with the thieves from Houston and he doesn't have to make expenditures for production infrastructure ...plus he just picked up some serious muscle. If the US wants to continue attempting to overthrow his government and assassinate him, they will now have to deal with China. I can hear the teeth grinding in Washington all the way over here.

The US is blowing all of its strategic oil alliances because it got greedy. "Ya say you need some oil, George? Sorry, we're sold out for the next 50 years." Gasoline is going to be getting very expensive in the states.

Don Duca
Moissac, France

Venezuela Widens Its Importers List
27.12.2004 6:01

Venezuela’s president Hugo Chavez has offered China a full access to the country's oil reserves. His offer was made in the network of a trade deal between the two countries.

The offer will allow China to operate oil fields in Venezuela and invest in new refineries. Venezuela has also offered to supply 120,000 barrels of fuel oil a month to China.

Venezuela, which sells 60 percent of its oil to the US, and has a strained relationship with the US ay the same time, now tries to diversify its export partners range to reduce its dependence on its largest export market.

[Neftegaz.ru]

http://www.neftegaz.ru/english/lenta/show.php?id=53108

-END-

Eric Hommelberg sends us some plums from the Netherlands:

Hi Bill,
Lots of Gold letter writers are calling for another leg down in Gold shares. I simply can’t disagree more. The Gold/HUI ratio indicates that the weakness in Gold shares is over and in fact the Gold/ HUI ratio issues a BUY for Gold shares right now. On Dec 8 I send a Gold/HUI chart suggesting that the HUI bottom would be very near based on historical data suggesting that extreme weakness in PM shares reflected by RSI tops in the Gold/HUI charts exceeding 70 won’t stay there for a long period of time. Now let’s have a look at an updated Gold/HUI chart :

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/Midas122804A.gif]

So based on its own history we could suggest :

PM shares do bottom at RSI tops > 70 of the Gold/HUI ratio.
RSI tops > 70 mark the beginning of an uptrend in PM shares lasting 2 to 9 month.
Each rally in PM shares which started from a RSI top >70 gained 50 to 130%.
RSI tops > 70 have a very short life span (less than two weeks)
Right now RSI crossed the 70 mark again, so PM shares bottoming within two weeks ?
Expected minimum gain of HUI is 50% within three month, so HUI >300 before end of Q1 2005

Now when we zoom in on the last year of the Gold/HUI chart you should notice that PM shares are a BUY indeed :

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/Midas122804B.gif]

So what to do now when the PM shares are so dirt cheap ?

Well, load the boat with your favorite junior gold mining shares. Why ?

Because they are trading at fire sale prices now and will be rewarded soon. Remember that 75% of all discoveries are made by juniors and that the major producers are facing a decline in gold reserves so they’ll have to go after the juniors. As an investor you should do the same.

I know the sentiment is terrible these days regarding juniors, but that makes them dirt cheap. Same sentiment we witnessed in Dec 2002. In my piece ‘2003 - Year of the juniors’ I wrote :

Profits of 100 – 1000 % are in the pipeline next year if invested in high quality junior mining companies. END

Well, that’s exactly what happened. Now, two years later I would say the same for the year of 2005. But remember, in order to enjoy a multiple 100% profit next year you’ll have to buy low, and that’s NOW !

Readers interested in the gold drivers 2005 PDF (finished chapters) can still drop a mail.
Best, Eric
ehommelberg@planet.nl

While the US stock market rockets up with little care in the world, the gold shares continue to struggle. The XAU lost .77 to 99.35. The HUI gave up 2.10 to 216.96.

This too shall end.

Here’s to UCONN, which won its first Bowl game by defeating Toledo. No bigger UCONN sports fan out there than my good friend and colleague Chris Powell. He will have to savor this win to make up for UCONN’s mighty women’s basketball team, which dropped out of the Top Ten for the first time in a decade.

Enjoy the holidays, family and friends. It’s only a matter of a bit of time before all our markets go our way.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Excellenter Artikel von Alex Wallenwein wie ich meine.

click hier

Er zeigt die negative Korrelation zwischen US Dollar und Dow auf. Papier und physisches Gold sind nicht länger die "Feinde". Einzig eine positive Korrelation zwischen Dow und GoldMINENaktien könnten die geplante Defizit-Sanierung gefährden.

It works because gold is no longer the real threat, and that's because an artificially high dollar is no longer desirable. The US needs a drastically lower dollar to (hopefully) start getting the mounting current account deficit to reverse course.

It also needs a low greenback because the euro needs to be torpedoed if the dollar-reserve system is to have any chance at survival. The US regime further needs its currency to fall to attract foreign manufacturing to the US to make up for the jobs lost to China - a brand new trend that most people are not even aware of. And the recently inverse dollar-Dow relationship is now amply documented by the charts above.

What the US cannot tolerate, however, is a powerful rising trend in gold shares.

Gold shares are the only thing that can attract mainstream US investors away from the mainstream stocks and so lead to a gold blow-off and a Dow collapse. Americans don't invest much in bullion. Having been ‘paper-trained' for several generations now, they consider it "too cumbersome." You can't sell bullion in your basement by calling your broker or making a few clicks online - but with gold shares, you can do it.

Eine neue Preismanipulation wird daher in Minenaktien passieren, während Anleger in physisches Gold die Gewinner sein werden.

Would you do it in the price of bullion, into which you know few investors are actually putting their money - or would you do it in the market segment they all are piling into when gold starts looking good?

That's one way of explaining the lagging share prices. So far, it's pure speculation and extrapolation from a few know factors. Maybe someone with a stronger motive to prove this will look into it and find the evidence, but the point is that bullion is the clear winner in this new era.

Gründe für den Preisanstieg des physischen Goldpreises sind:

Muslims, Chinese, Indians, and Russians have no intention of enriching companies of countries like South Africa, Australia, Canada - and especially the US - by investing in their mining shares. They understand the value of the metal itself (maybe with the exception of private Russian investors), so that's what they go for. As far as these countries and areas' official policies go, they don't mind destabilizing the dollar at all, as along as it doesn't hurt them too much. Pumping money into US company stocks - and therefore into the US economy - isn't these groups' top priority, really. (When it comes to US productive assets, however, China doesn't seem to mind. Gives it some nice leverage for the future, rather than potential stock-loss risks)

In the long term, gold miners, though they profit from higher prices in their own currencies, still have to operate in their own economies. As far as US miners go, only those holding metal instead of cash as their assets will be able to post serious profits when inflation goes from tame to hyper as the world-wide dollar- drubbing continues.

India may be setting itself up to becoming the major bullion player in the world. That only makes sense - because it already is. India's official gold reserves are far below those of the major financial powers of the world, but look at how much the population is estimated to own according to India's Commerce and Industry Minister, Khamal Nath: Currently 9,000 tons, and soon expected to become 15,000 tons. That's about what GATA and many others estimate al of the world's central banks to have left in terms of actual, unencumbered gold reserves. (Which country do you think is better prepared to weather the coming storm: the US - or India?)

Chinese and Japanese official gold buying is gaining momentum. At the same time China intends to align its now spot-oriented domestic trading to the world wide futures trading system, intending to become a major player in the international gold trading arena. Yet, despite this official trend toward derivatives and hedging practices, individual Chinese savers are expected and officially encouraged by their government to buy and hold physical to hedge against financial and currency risks. More on that in the next section.

Entscheidend ist hierbei, dass:

None of these factors lie within the sphere of US legislative or Fed control.

Bei mir funktioniert der Link nicht.

Wenn ich mal so auf die Kurse schaue, dann ist Gold in Euro tiefer als zu Jahresbeginn.

Also letztlich ein verlorenes Jahr für alle Goldinvestoren (bin ja selber einer ...). Wer hätte das am Jahresanfang gedacht ?

Gruß
cabrito

und die Marsmännchen sind grün.

Finde ich immer wieder schön zu lesen wie sich ständig die Meinung der "Experten" ändert. Mal ist Gold und Silber der Feind mal die GM Aktien. Und nächstes Jahr wird der DAX sein weil die US Investoren US Aktien verkaufen müssen um in EU Land zu investieren.

Dies zeigt dass die "Experten" ziemlich am Ende sind mit ihrem Latein und nicht mehr weiter wissen wie Sie deren Jünger bei Laune halten können.

Kauft Aktien !!!

Ähh, doch nicht.

Kauft physische Ware !!!

Nein, nein falsch. Doch Aktien.

Ach, gerade haben die Bösen den HUI geshortet. Aber jetzt ist doch wieder Zeit in physische Ware zu investieren.

Fazit:

Vergesst die Experten denn die halten nur die Taschen auf um Eure Kohle zu bekommen !!!

@ Cabrito

Jetzt ist Zeit zum Nachkaufen ! Heute ist der Goldpreis um 8 Dollar getaucht. Ich glaube nur für kurze Zeit !!! Also einsteigen zur nächsten Bergfahrt !

Gruss von der Alp