Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Der Kommentar ist mal wieder bemerkenswert.....

09 Jun 2005 16:02

09.06.2005 15:43:11 NY gold off on strong dlr, trade sales hit silver

NEW YORK, June 9 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures declined for the third straight session Thursday morning, as investors followed a stronger U.S. dollar amid scant fundamental news in the market, dealers said.

Silver prices, meanwhile, quickly dropped to 10-day lows on a continuation of the profit taking seen this week after futures failed to make advances above $7.60 per ounce.

"A lot of trade selling has come out of Europe pushing this thing lower," said a silver floor broker.

Buying by banks and speculative short covering initially stoppered the declines before two large banks turned heavy sellers again, he said.

"The locals just went with the flow. They are usually short in silver so they're happy," the broker added. By 9:21 a.m. EDT, July delivery silver tumbled 19 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $7.285 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, dealing from $7.46 to $7.28, which marked its lowest since May 31.

Dealers said, technically, silver was ripe for liquidation of longs, under pressure from lower gold and a firmer dollar. Chartists put support at $7.20 and $7.14.

Spot silver sank to $7.25/28, down from Wednesday's New York close at $7.40/43. It fixed at $7.38.

COMEX August gold slipped $1.20 to $425.40 an ounce, trading a tight range of $426.50 to $425.10, and staying in familiar territory with supply/demand news lacking.

The dollar neared a nine-month high versus the euro as traders looked for a clue from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan that U.S. interest rates would continue to rise.

The euro last was down at $1.2231.

In testimony at 10 a.m., Greenspan is expected to detail his expectations for growth and interest rates.

Rising U.S. rates tend to boost the dollar and weigh on gold.

At the Reuters Mining Summit in New York, Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX.TO) CEO Greg Wilkins said gold's lengthy coupling to the dollar will end in five to 10 years as supply/demand dynamics change and other currencies may come to the fore.

Wilkins said on Wednesday the shift in the way the two were linked should take place amid a number of factors like fundamental issues of production and consumption and the growth of interest from investors.

"I can see catalysts and reasons as to why those relationships might change," he said.

A stronger greenback makes dollar-priced gold less attractive to investors using foreign currencies.

The euro's influence could also wane if there were changes in China's foreign exchange policy and a revaluation of the yuan, he said.

Gold prices are seen bracketed between $415 and $431 for now, dealers said.

Spot gold fetched $423.00/3.70 an ounce, against $423.70/4.40 at Wednesday's close. Thursday's afternoon London fix was $423.55.

On the board at NYMEX, July platinum fell $4.90 to $875 an ounce. Spot reached $870/873.

September palladium sagged $3.25 to $186.50 an ounce. Spot hit $184/187.

Schatz & Nobel, P.C. Announces Class Action Lawsuit Against Newmont Mining Corporation

Thursday June 9, 10:56 am ET

HARTFORD, Conn., June 9 /PRNewswire/ -- The law firm of Schatz & Nobel, P.C., which has significant experience representing investors in prosecuting claims of securities fraud, announces that a lawsuit seeking class action status has been filed in the United States District Court for the District of Colorado on behalf of all persons who purchased the publicly traded securities of Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE: NEM - News; "Newmont" or the "Company") between July 28, 2004 and April 26, 2005, inclusive (the "Class Period").
The Complaint alleges that Newmont, a gold producer, and certain of its officers and directors violated federal securities laws. Specifically, defendants knew, but concealed the following:

Newmont had been processing only stockpiled low-grade ore at certain mines, which costs more to process; (ii) Newmont's costs for commodities used in mining had increased, increasing total production costs; (iii) the amount of copper and gold Newmont stated it could extract in 2005 was overstated; and (iv) as a result of operating difficulties in Q1 2005, Newmont's cash generation had declined by 50% and its exploration costs would significantly increase.

On April 26, 2005 Newmont announced that the Company's Q1 2005 earnings would fall short by two-thirds of what analysts had been expecting based on the Company's frequent guidance and investor presentations. Unbeknownst to investors, Newmont's Peruvian, Indonesian, Australian and New Zealand mines had grossly underperformed. On this news, Newmont's stock dropped from its April 26, 2005 closing price of $40.25 per share to less than $38 per share on April 27, 2005. Before the truth about Newmont's operational and financial difficulties was disclosed, Newmont was able to place over $600 million worth of notes in March 2005.

If you are a member of the class, you may, no later than August 8, 2005, request that the Court appoint you as lead plaintiff of the class. A lead plaintiff is a class member that acts on behalf of other class members in directing the litigation. Although your ability to share in any recovery is not affected by the decision whether or not to seek appointment as a lead plaintiff, lead plaintiffs make important decisions which could affect the overall recovery for class members, including decisions concerning settlement. The securities laws require the Court to consider the class member(s) with the largest financial interest as presumptively the most adequate lead plaintiff(s).

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Die Directoren vor allem Swanepoel hatte sich reich beschenk mit vielen Aktien als die total unten waren, man sagte die CEO"S anderer verdienen mehr im Vergleich nach einen sinnlosen Rechtsstreit der oben drauf millionen von Rand gekostet hat. .... Diese Saubande !
Die Aktie flog -45% in den Keller, well done Swanepeol, der Gold De Klerk.

Beschiss und manipulation ueberall wo man hinschaut !

Geld und Gold stinkt nicht und jeder hat seinen Preis.

Jeden das seine, mir am meisten !

Mfg

XEX

Dear Members,

In my newsletter I recommended part buying in gold/silver on Thursday/Friday, so buy slowly.
There is no need to go aggressive as you all know that I don't see a great rise in 2005 on gold.

BEST AREA TO PUT MONEY:

Currently I am recommending buying Wheat, corn and soybean, don't worry about weather or rain,if nature wants to take nothing can stop.

Oil was up today on storm report in area of gulf of Mexico but that is false rise, soon should walk on original path (which is down).

Copper is not showing also increasing sign with Mars so one can hold short, maximum can go up $155.80.

Coffee can be good buy at this downward trend.

Geh gleich zum Supermarkt, kauf mehr und trinke sofort eine Tasse.

Have a nice Day

Mfg

Eldorado

First, let’s ask ourselves, “How is the world of gold going?” The following is a nice interesting bit of prophetic news from Pierre Lassonde.

Newmont sees $US525 gold price by Jan

“The price of gold should rise to $525 an ounce by the start of 2006, a top executive of gold giant Newmont Mining Corp. said on Thursday.” “Pierre Lassonde, president of the world's largest gold mining company, cited an expected decline in the U.S. dollar by another 15 per cent against a basket of currencies, world economic growth strong enough to keep physical demand buoyant and a continuing gradual decline in gold output.” The Sydney Morning Herald, 6-10-2005

And?..........

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldLetter/1118412002.php

Thursday, June 09, 2005, 7:54:00 PM EST

Gold and Dollar Market Summary

Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGA:

In five to ten years Henny Penny can fall from the sky! But let me give you an alternative scenario to the recent statements made at the Reuter’s Mining Summit about the dollar and its relationship to gold.

The Advent of and Application of a Modernized, Revitalized, Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio.

How Gold Re-enters the US Dollar Equation.

1. The dollar again enters a full blown bear market as a product of its deteriorating internal fundamentals.
2. The march into the new system of Authoritarian Free Enterprise continues as a result of all the measures being adopted and reinforced to combat terrorism – perceived or otherwise.
3. There comes a point in the dollar decline that the public will support draconian measures as they are reassured by eminent authority and political consensus that this is the correct system fix.
4. At this point, major wealth reassumes a long dollar position.
5. There are two key items in the draconian plans, the first of which is the significant reduction of Federal entitlement spending for the common benefit of all. This is intended to stabilize the US Federal Budget deficits and save the dollar, thereby creating jobs and improving the US and global economic system. That is the spin. Authoritarian Free Enterprise favors the authority of commerce and not the common good. This is when policy changes will occur, the deficits will come into balance and the US dollar will enter a bullish period.
6. In the second move, gold enters the picture. Gold convertibility is not what will occur and the Gold Community will not be pleased by the role gold will play. Gold is coming back into the system not at the pleasure of present gold advocates but at the pleasure of the masters of the global economy.

Gold will function as a control item for the US dollar. Convertibility is simply too automatic and too cumbersome for the barons of commerce. Gold’s role, however, as a barometer and control item will be seized in the form of a modernized, revitalized Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio.

Gold will be tied to levels of international dollar liquidity measured by the outstanding US debt in the hands of non-US entities. This is another view of the cumulative affect of the US Current Account.

Assuming the unfortunate event that the price of gold closes any day at the end of the open outcry session of the COMEX (simply as a point of measure) 3% above the $518 - $529 price level it can be considered having moved out of a normal bull market into a run away market. That run away situation would be the signal that gold has assumed its traditional role in attempting to balance the international balance sheet of the USA.

That is another way to say that the value of the gold held by the US Treasury would be at a market price that would when computed be equal to the amount of US Treasuries held by non-US entities calculated at par or 100 cents to the dollar issue price. That situation would be the balanced position of assets versus liabilities for the US dollar internationally.

That price then is recognized internationally by central banks and all gold is revalued on their respective balance sheets to this market price. By this means, the US Current Account now becomes the means by which the US Treasury must increase their gold position if the price of gold times the gold held by the US Treasury (Gold Certificates) is below the level of value at par times all the US Federal paper held by non US entities.

This is modernized because it is not like the old Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio that was tied directly to the cost of money. It is revitalized because it moves to maintain the balance of the international balance sheet of the USA Inc.

Such a condition for a corporation is conducive to acceptance of its common shares. Such a condition by a country is conducive to the value of its common share namely its own currency. Thus, the old outdated and impractical US Federal Gold Certificate Ratio becomes modernized and revitalized.

If the holdings of US Federal paper dropped internationally, the US Treasury could stand pat or sell gold.

There is no question that instruments of speculation would immediately appear, allowing the market to place bets on the state of the US current Account, marking the price of gold to the assumed level thereby relieving the US Treasury of having to do anything at all but watch as the market keeps the US international balance sheet in balance for them.

The gold people would be quite pleased with the price of gold and quite displeased when they recognize who it protects. However, the system of Authoritarian Free enterprise with a sound US dollar controlled by gold - not convertible but as a control item of US creation of international liquidity - would guarantee the dollar’s viability for generations to come.

It would reinstate a one alarm system and that alarm would be turned off immediately in the marketplace or by the US Treasury at will.

The action of the marketplace or by the US Treasury would - if liquidity is created - assure that the balance sheet of the USA was always in balance.

The fix to the problem is a balance sheet fix and not a fix that gold convertibility will have any place in.

Therefore, I disagree with the position that the US dollar and gold will break their relationship as predicted as the Reuters Mining Summit. That can only happen for short periods of time due to exogenous events. If we are going out on limbs, I predict this event to occur in 2012 which must be considered a respectful disagreement with the executive quoted in the following article.

Gold's marriage to dollar set to end-Barrick
Wed Jun 8, 2005 05:53 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold's lengthy coupling to the dollar will end as supply/demand dynamics change and other currencies may come to the fore, Barrick Gold Corp. CEO Greg Wilkins said at the Reuters Mining Summit on Wednesday.

Woof,Woof, CNBC is scaring investors again with talk of ""intentions"" of goldsales by the IMF.
It shows clear to me how desperate the PPT is to knock down the Goldprice after the Euro Plunge did not do the job perfectly.

Did Captain Alan Greenspan really make a soft landing for the economy and restored the faith internationally with his speech yesterday ?

Its amazing how this man can talk the problems away and fool the market with twisted words hard to pinpoint what he really meant.

He is a great talker, that's for sure.

Anyway, here is Gerbino's Roadmap on the Mining Stock:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/gerbino060905.html

An economist at the Bank of International Settlements informed a few weeks ago that the global derivative markets are $279 trillion for exchange traded derivatives but there is an additional $220 trillion in over-the-counter trade derivatives. These numbers are large enough to make one a conservative investor especially when one considers that even a 1% default rate in these speculative and leveraged financial instruments would equal almost the entire U.S. money supply.

The most troubling aspect of this dollar rally is that precious metals have not fallen below their February lows. It has also been interesting to note the recent surge in copper and silver, while aluminum remains beaten down. So we are not inclined to back off our bearish view on gold unless the euro price of gold were to surge above €350 per ounce. Note that next week marks the 6-year high-low-high turn cycle in gold priced in euros. If €350 can hold we expect a protracted decline in gold. If it breaks it would indicate that the markets were shunning paper money in favor of hard currencies and we would turn bullish on gold. Key resistance is at $438 in gold and $8 in silver.

.....more

http://www.financialsense.com/…ials/black/2005/0609.html

Trotz der bullischen Prognosen für den US Dollar gehen Edelmetallhaendler von einer weiteren Aufwaertsbewegung des Goldpreises aus.
Die Experten sehen im Bereich von 422$ eine relativ stabile Unterstützungszone, welche weitere Kursverluste abbremsen sollte.
Für die meisten sind die momentanen Abgaben nichts anderes als eine Korrekturbewegung, die auf Gewinnmitnahmen zurueckzuführen ist.

Heute ist der Goldpreis gestiegen, obgleich der Dollar ebenfalls stärker geworden ist.

Gold +3,50 USD +0,82%
Euro 1,2118 USD –0,90%

Gold auf 352,30 Euro !! gestiegen +1,71%

Der enge Zusammenhang von steigendem Euro und steigendem Dollar hat sich gelockert: die Korrelation ist von 93% auf 76% in den letzten drei Monaten gesunken.

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Gold Gains on Comex as Investors Shift Holdings From Euros

June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices in New York rose for the first session in four, reversing earlier losses, as investors shifted holdings to the precious metal from euros after the currency hit a nine-month low against the dollar.

The dollar gained against the euro after the Commerce Department reported the U.S. trade gap in April widened to $57 billion, less than forecast by economists. The link between gold and the euro began to diminish last week after voters in France and the Netherlands rejected the European Union constitution. Gold gained 0.8 percent this week, and the euro has shed 0.9 percent.

``There is gold being bought in euro terms'' said Michael Guido, director of hedge fund marketing and commodity strategy in New York for Paris-based Societe Generale SA. ``In essence, they're selling euros and buying gold. That's why you're seeing gold move up, while the euro's still down.''
….

Gold, which has moved almost in lockstep with the euro's performance against the dollar in the past three months, at a correlation coefficient of 0.76. The maximum reading is 1. The coefficient measures to what degree two variables move in unison.

The correlation was 0.93 before voters in France and the Netherlands rejected the treaty meant to streamline decision-making following the union's expansion to 25 members from 15 last year.

``The euro has lost it, and you're seeing people who sold dollars and held euros in reserve buy gold,'' said Dennis Gartman, trader, economist and editor of the Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter, a financial newsletter.

Gartman began recommending that investors hold gold in euro terms on April 11, saying a rejection of the EU constitution would undermine the currency.

``Investors are probably a little disturbed about holding euros and uncomfortable holding U.S. denominated assets, so they look to the third alternative, which is gold'," Gartman said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…g&refer=commodity_futures

Zumindest eine Zwischenrallye, die darüber entscheidet, ob sich Gold noch im langfristigen Bullenmarkt befindet. Nötig sei das Überschreiten des letzten Tops von 458,70 USD.

THE DOW REPORT
Gold, Poised to Rally?

Yes, gold is setting up for a rally of at least intermediate degree. This rally will be a very very important test and a lot is on the line as it relates to gold’s future. This rally will tell us without a doubt if gold is still in a secular bull market or if it has turned the corner and is now operating in a secular bear market.
....
This advance is the first advance of this degree since the December top. Therefore, gold is about to be given a green light to move higher. In order for the 9-year cycle to remain bullish, gold MUST exceed the December 2004 high at 458.70. Should this intermediate term cycle top out prior to exceeding the December 2004 high, then we will have solid cyclical evidence that the December high marked the 9-year cycle top and that gold is now on the down hill side of that cycle. Should this occur, lower prices will then be confirmed.
Vollständig...

Guten Morgen, gleich geht mein Flieger,ich lege noch beim rausgehen die neuesten news fuer Euch rein. Hasta Pronto, Eldorado

Dear Members,

Last Friday, what we have been waiting to happen finally occurred; gold broke its relationship with the US Dollar as well as with Euro. This implies that gold has chosen to follow its own path and I am keen to watch each step that it takes on its new course. The current phase looks quite healthy and welcoming but the question is; will the path remain the same after two months? Well, I shall monitor the situation and will refer to it from time to time.

A long while back, I made up my mind to always trade with nature’s wave and not in anticipation of the short term market wave. Of course it is always prudent to bear the risk factor in mind when one enters into any trade, since a lot of volatility following any news in the commodity market can result in substantial paper loss in your account.

THIS WEEK’S PREDICTIONS FROM 13 JUNE TO 17 JUNE 2005

GOLD

Till the day that the western world will understand the meaning of saving as the eastern world does, gold will not have a great future. It will continue to go up and come down, trading like any other commodity. For a decent life, housing, food and clothing are essential pillars. However, the world economy has not made gold an essential part of it and hence gold has to prove itself. Till then, it has to trade as any other commodity.

Those that have been following my predictions for a while may wonder why I have sidelined gold. This is especially in view of the fact that it was my favourite from 2002 to 2004! The answer is that gold has to suffer first and prove itself as the world’s only currency. It is the reason that the stock market has not collapsed and the horror scenario has not occurred in the USA and world economy. I will therefore continue to watch as I am certain that this period is not too far off.
However, we may have to wait for another year.

This week, the spot price of gold will trade up and could move up to $429.80 while the downside will be 421.10. It will therefore trade within a very narrow range. From Monday to Wednesday, it will move on the higher side but be on the downside on Thursday and Friday.

As I mentioned before, the positive time for gold is only for 45 days and it could go up to $441.90 on the higher side.
Do not expect anything exciting from gold for the next 7 months after this forty-five day period elapses.

SILVER

During this week silver prices will move in the range of $7.02 to $7.38 and the breaking of these prices on either side could be a dangerous signal. I will be constantly on the watch and may send you an alert concerning this. My advice is that you should currently focus more on gold, not silver. Silver buyers should take advantage of booking profit.

STOCK MARKET

The stock market is in a trading range where traders make good money buying and selling. I still recommend selling oil stocks as well as high value stocks. It has been quite long (almost six months) since I have been predicting a great fall, but the stock market has been trading between 10000 and 10700. The chances of moving upwards from the current level are bleak. However, there’s one thing that you can do to earn good profits- quick trading: sell and buy back till it gives 100% confirmation of a downward trend.

In the last six months, three major planetary movements have taken place. One major change occurred in March for forty five days and the DOW fell from 10800 to 10000. It is now 4% up though it looks shaky. The second cycle will take place between 15 June and 23 June and if the market comes into its grip, then it is sure to break 10000.

Watch last week’s list of alternative energy stocks. I still feel that one should buy these stocks.

TREASURY BOND

Last week, the treasury bond went down as expected and I expect a further downtrend. I may give a buying signal around $115.

CURRENCIES

The US Dollar made another nine months high. I see some big problem occurring outside the USA with a few funds and institutions. Many were very negative on the Dollar and might be holding short positions (this is just my feeling, as I don't have any inside news).

A few months back I mentioned in one of my newsletters that oil’s rise will not be for economic reasons but political or revenge. I was very surprised to hear a similar statement from the respected Alan Greenspan in his testimony last week. Wealthy individual connected with terrorists or enemies of the USA might be buying OIL and selling the dollar to bring USA down. I feel that they might have been caught up in the short dollar and I am sure they can also be caught in oil soon. However, the oil issue is quite different since they own it and could refuse delivery.

Some time I get this kind information from my own revelations, which one may call physic or prophecy. I then note them down, after which I confirm with the astrological chart as to when the events will take place. The timing part is therefore decided by nature or planetary movement, otherwise known as Astrology. Everything has a name and sometimes people just like or hate a name. However, by dismissing something whose name we don’t like, it is quite possible to overlook the value hidden within it.

I went a little off track from the financial newsletter- sorry for that. I see the dollar making a new high once more. Do not make the mistake of shorting it. The Yen, Australian and New Zealand dollar, the Rand and other second run currencies will remain weak. The Euro and Pound will remain stable during this week but don't buy them; just cover them if you are short.
The dollar could fall up to one percent but don't short it as it is moving ahead like a Tsunami wave and it will soon cross USD/IDX 90.

Kann die Echtheit dieser Meldung noch nicht bestätigen, es scheint aber zu stimmen:

PRETORIA, June 13 (Reuters) - The sale of gold held by the International Monetary Fund is no longer an option for funding debt relief for poor countries, South African Finance Minister Trevor Manuel said on Monday.

The Group of Eight (G8) -- Britain, Japan, Canada, the United States, France, Italy, Germany and Russia -- announced a $40 billion deal to write off all the multilateral debts of some of the world's poorest countries on Saturday.

Funding for the debt relief had been a vexing question and sales of IMF gold had been seen as an option.

"It is no longer on the table because a different route has been found," said Manuel, who was among representatives of developing nations to meet the G8 finance ministers in London.

"The issue of gold sales is now entirely academic," he told a news conference in Pretoria.

As the world's largest bullion producer, South Africa was concerned about the impact of IMF gold sales on gold prices.

The IMF holds 103.4 million ounces (3,217 tonnes) of its shareholders' gold at designated depositories, making it the world's third biggest holder of bullion behind the United States and Germany.

The IMF's total gold holdings are valued on its balance sheet at about $9 billion on the basis of historical cost.

At current market prices, that would be around $43 billion.

Manuel said the world's wealthy nations had committed themselves to finding other means of debt relief funding, pointing to a section of the G8 weekend communique which said it would be "met by the use of existing IMF resources."

Where existing IMF resources could not meet such need "donors commit to provide the extra resources necessary."

Manuel said this meant that gold sales was no longer an option.

After the weekend meeting British Finance Minister Gordon Brown, who championed the cause of debt relief, reserved the right to propose measures to fund debt relief with IMF gold in future.

Immer rein ins Fass ohne Boden, Danke IMF und wer immer da einbezahlt hat

Was ich heute gelesen habe ist good old Germany mit 840 Mio. Euro dabei. Na was solls, wir hams ja. Offensichtlich gehandelt nach der Devise "das macht den Kohl auch nicht mehr fett".

Hallo von München

Ich werde hier nur fett bei dem guten Essen und Bier.
Stimmung die selbe wie in Kapstadt , die meisten Leute sehen genauso fad und unhappy aus. Kein Wunder mit Eichel und neuer Rentenreform.

Seit dem ich im Urlaub bin läufts ja ganz gut mit Gold und Aktien.
Valueman und ich scherzten noch darueber. Bin ja noch bis Anfang August unterwegs und hoffe es läuft weiter so gut.

Gestern bekam ich eine crystalball news:

Angeblich soll heute zwei Stunden vor der Closing Bell der Goldpreis gedrückt werden,ein Verkaufsignal wurde somit aktiviert.
Jedoch am Mittwoch soll der Goldpreis wieder steigen.
Ich mache es nach Schweizer Art, wenn man nicht weiß was man nun machen soll dann macht man erstmal gar nichts.
Was gegen die news spricht ist die vorhergehende Vorhersage stimmte nicht, wir hatten schon 437 Dollar Goldpreis.

Von meinen Gefühl her ging der Anstieg zu schnell und man darf sich nicht gleich in einen Kaufrausch verleiten lassen denn Rückschlaege können aus dem blauen Himmel passieren.

Ich wünsche Euch alles Gute und hoffe ihr trifft die richtigen Entscheidungen.

Herzlichen Gruss unter den bewölkten Bayrischen Himmel,

Eldorado

@eldo

Bin noch bis nächsten Mittwoch geschäftlich unterwegs, aber wie ich sehe vertrittst Du mich ja in meiner Heimatstadt München
Siehst mal, sind wir mit unserer "Prognose" steigender Kurse ab dem 13.06. quasi goldrichtig gelegen.
So kanns weitergehen....wie lange bist Du gleich nochmal im Urlaub

Grüsse

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Rohstoffe
Gold arbeitet am Ausbruch zum Euro

16. Juni 2005 Die Rohstoffe sorgten auf Grund der zum Teil deutliche steigenden Preise in den vergangenen Monaten für Furore. Das gilt nicht nur für das Öl, sondern auch für Gas, Erze und zum Teil auch für die so genannten „Soft Commodities”.

So kommt es, daß die Entwicklung beim Gold etwas in den Hintergrund getreten ist. Dabei zeigt der Preis des Edelmetalls nicht nur gegen den Dollar im mittelfristigen Trend nach oben. Sondern in den vergangenen Wochen zeigte es auch gegen den Euro Auftrieb und macht sich an den Ausbruch nach oben, nachdem es gegen die europäische Einheitswährung lange Zeit nur seitwärts gelaufen war.

Schwächerer Euro - starkers Gold

Dafür dürfte in erster Linie der relativ starke Euro verantwortlich gewesen sein. Er führte bisher dazu, daß das Gold für Europäer nicht teurer wurde, obwohl der Preis in Dollar stieg. Nun macht sich allerdings die jüngste Korrektur der europäischen Einheitswährung bemerkbar. Sie wurde ausgelöst durch die veränderte Wahrnehmung der mit der Währung verbundenen Chancen und Risiken. Das Scheitern der EU-Verfassung und auch die Spekulation auf mögliche Zinssenkungen in Europa haben sie weniger attraktiv gemacht.

Das kann allerdings eher ein kurzfristiges Phänomen sein. Denn langfristig dürfte die Währungsentwicklung von anderen Faktoren abhängen als alleine von der kurzfristigen Stimmung, nominellen Zinsdifferenzen oder angeblichen Wachstums- und Produktivitätsvorteilen. Auch die Geldmenge, die reale Preisentwicklung und makroökonomische Relationen spielen eine Rolle.

In den vergangenen Monaten hat die Sorge über eine anhaltende Disinflation die Rentenmärkte zumindest in Europa auf Rekordkurse gebracht. Händler und Anleger schienen und scheinen sich an den offiziellen Preisindizes zu orientieren. Aber auch das dürfte eine ziemlich einseitige Betrachtungsweise sein. Denn außerhalb der Indizes gibt es weite Bereiche, in denen die Preise zum Teil deutlich steigen. Man denke nur an die Rohstoffe, an die Immobiliepreise in weiten Teilen der Welt. Selbst hoch bewertet Aktien und Anleihen können ein Inflationsindiz sein. Immerhin liegt das Kurs-Gewinnverhältnis (KGV) der im S&P 500 enthaltenen Unternehmen bei knapp 20 und damit über dem langjährigen Durchschnitt von 17. Gleichzeitig sind zehnjährige Anleihen in Amerika und Europa mit KGVs von 24,3 und gar 31,4 massiv überbewertet.

Gold - die einzige „Währung”, die nicht auf Kreditwürdigkeit beruht

Das heißt, das Verhältnis zwischen nomineller Nachfrage und dem Angebot scheint in manchen Bereichen aus dem Ruder gelaufen zu sein. Dafür sind unter anderem die Notenbanken verantwortlich, die schlicht und einfach zuviel Geld drucken. Vor allem die amerikanische. Denn die Kaufkraft des Dollars hat sich in den vergangenen 100 Jahren deutlich reduziert. Gerade in den vergangenen Jahren hat sie die Geldpresse auf Hochdruck laufen lassen. Andere Notenbanken standen dem kaum nach. Selbst in Europa ist die Geldversorgung überaus üppig, was sich an den rekordtiefen Zinsen zeigt. Sie nützen allerdings nichts, da sich die Volkswirtschaften in strukturellen Schwierigkeiten - sprich: es gibt global ein Überangebot an Arbeitskräften - und Schuldenproblemen stecken.

Auf der anderen Seite haben Handelsungleichgewichte zu einer massiven Anhäufung von Dollarreserven in Asien geführt. Sie wurden lange Zeit in amerikanische Wertpapiere „recycelt”. Allerdings deuten die jüngsten Kapitalflußdaten auf einen geringeren Appetit der internationalen Anleger auf amerikanische Werte hin. Sollte sich daraus ein Trend entwickeln, stellt sich die Frage, wohin die Liquidität angesichts der hohen Bewertungen weltweit fließen würde. Ein Ausweg können Edelmetalle zu sein. Immerhin liegt der Goldpreis gerechnet in Dollars des Jahres 1980 bei gerade einmal bei etwa 175 Dollar und ist damit sehr günstig. Das kann sehr verlockend sein für Anleger, die das Vertrauen in gedrucktes Papier verlieren. Im Gegensatz dazu beruht der Wert des Goldes nicht auf der Kreditwürdigkeit eines anderen, sondern allein auf der natürlichen Knappheit.
http://www.faz.net/s/Rub3B5979848A5C48F18F2FF729A7211ACE/Doc~ED6358CA9B2A749E0844371D23A6D4FCE~ATpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html#top
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.faz.net/imagecache/…752E071A974%7Dpicture.gif]

valueman

Ich bin in M bis zum 30.Juni und dann 14 Tage Mexico/Cozumel.
Ich wollte erst vom 15 Juli bis Abflug in M bleiben aber da ist nicht viel Fun und Abwechslung für einen Goldbug wie mich.
Fliege nun nach Bangkok/Phuket vom 18-31 Juli, da fühle ich mich wohler.
Schön wäre es ja wenn es bis zum 3.August weiter so hoch geht.
Es ist momentan alles zu schön um wahr zu sein und habe dabei meine Bedenken...... Holzauge sei wachsam !

Pfirty, schönen Gruß und viel Glück an die anderen Cowboys

Eldorado

Hi eldo,
hast dir ja ein paar Raketen zugelegt im zurückliegenden Großeinkauf.
Gratuliere!
Ich hatte die Woche "Heumahd". Luschen raus und auch ein paar gute, die wie WML. nachher noch sakrisch gestiegen sind.
Auch ein bisserl was gekauft.
Jetzt hoff ich, dass es noch ein bisserl läuft, dann kann ich manch teure Erstkäufe mit +- 0 wegtun und die billigeren Nachkäufe lassen.
Sozusagen Kosmetik nach der Mahd.

Thailand: jetzt im Juni od. erst am 18. Juli?

Alles gute
Tschonko

Hi Tschonko

Am 18. Juli gehts erst nach BKK bis 31.Juli.
Dann noch drei Tage am Weißwurstequator, dann zurück nach Kapstadt. Bezüglich meiner Einkäufe hat sich der Mut zum Risiko wieder mal gelohnt, besonders bei allen Minen in Nevada die ich kaufte. Aber man soll den Tag nicht vor dem Abend loben und Profit hat man erst wenn man den realisiert hat. Ich habe nochmals Avino ,First Majestic sowie Minco Mining nachgekauft da Silberminen preiswerter als Goldminen sind zur Zeit. Ich hoffe für uns alle das daß Hoch weiter anhält. Schau dir mal die ECU Silber (ECU.V) an,die finde ich auch ein Schäppchen für den jetzigen Preis von 27 cents.

All the best

Eldorado

Hier ganz frisch von Crystalball:

Dear Members,
Current commodity market like a war situation. I shall explore this in more detail in this week’s newsletter. Today may be the final day for copper being high and many other commodities like oil and metals. If they don't fall early next (I see a strong fall) than cover all your short position in oil and copper, so we will watch next week.

Oil is a different story altogether, and I would like to write about it in more detail.
As I said (in 15 to 23 June) the stock market is in a selling range.

As far as gold is concerned, I see very little chance of its closing above $441, but let us still watch IF ITS BREAK that level and trade above for three days than new prices high are possible. I am just advising you to book profit, NO SHORT as June is good months and this what I have been writting since last four months.

I AM WARNING COMMODITY TRADERS AND BROKERAGE HOUSES TO TRADE VERY CAREFULLY. THEY SHOULD TRADE CATIOUSLY FOR I CLEARLY FORESEE SOME COMMODITIES FALLING LIMIT DOWN FOR A FEW DAYS IN THE COMING TIME (IN FEW MONTHS). DURING THAT TIME, MANY COMMODITY BROKERAGE HOUSES MAY CLOSE DOWN AND MORE THAN 70% OF COMMODITY TRADERS WILL LOSE ALL THE GAINS MADE IN RECENT YEARS.

OFCOURSE I SHALL GUIDE YOU BEFORE THAT TIME COMES, BUT AS A SAFEGUARD AGAINST THE IMPENDING CRISIS, IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO TRANSFER MONEY FROM THE BROKERAGE HOUSES TO A SAFE BANK ACCOUNT.