Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Habe die 6,86 zufällig auch gesehen.
Nach 2 Minuten alles wieder beim alten.
Kitco hatte schon öfters solche Ausrutscher.

vShen Xiangrong, Leiter der Shanghai Gold Exchange, sagte in einem Interview, dass Chinas Goldkonsum in diesem Jahr um 20% auf 12,86 Millionen Unzen steigen wird. Des weiteren fügte er hinzu, dass die Goldnachfrage aufgrund der Währungsaufwertung um 2,1% weiter zunehmen wird. Außerdem rät Mister Shen der Regierung in Peking sich auf den Kauf von physischem Gold zu konzentrieren um damit das Risiko der US Dollar Reserven abzufedern. Laut den letzten Angaben sind diese nämlich um 16,6% auf fast schon unglaubliche 711 Milliarden US Dollar angestiegen. Augrund der Abwertung des Dollars gegen den Yuan nimmt auch der Wert der Reserven weiter ab. Shen Xiangrong sieht hier als einzige Lösung eine Umschichtung eines Teils der großen Reserven in Gold. Laut Angaben der chinesischen Zentralbank sind die Goldreserven in diesem Jahr unverändert bei 19,290 Millionen Unzen geblieben. gf Freut uns doch

Gruß Jürgen

@ jürgen

Ich mag die Chinesen,die werden die nummer eins und lieben Gold wie die Inder, sie beide wissen warum.
Man kauft heimlich und geduldigt,man will ja den preis nicht selber hochdrehen.
Der Amerikaner wird durch den Dollar besiegt,mit dem überdruckten Dollar besiegte er andere,bald kommt die Retourkutsche für deren Aussenpolitik und Raubritterschaft.
Man muss nur Geduld haben. ;)What goes round,comes around !

Gruss

Eldorado

@EDEL MANN

Die Russen und die Chinesen müssen auch nicht auf das hören was Ihnen die Amis anschaffen um Ihre marode Währung am Leben zu erhalten.
Die Chinesen haben inzwischen sogar soviel Dollars angehäuft, dass Sie mit diesem Paket Ihrerseits die Amis ärgern können.

http://www.faz.net/s/Rub3B5979…Tpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html

silber

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.faz.net/imagecache/%7B4584E241-4821-4002-9373-45AF945FBB30%7Dpicture.gif]

riesiges Dreieck im Silber

The gold price increased by 1.6%, from $430.10 on Monday to $437.12 on Thursday. At the same time the dollar fell 1.7% against the euro and 1.3% against the yen. If we just use those two currencies as a proxy for the dollar then the average decline was 1.5%. That is not materially different from 1.6% given that we are only looking at two currencies. It therefore seems reasonable to state that the increase in the gold price this week was due to a decrease in the US dollar exchange rate.

While more and more analysts now recognize the US dollar exchange rate causes changes in the US dollar gold price, many still do not understand how and why. I sometimes read that a decline in the US dollar made gold less expensive in other currencies, thereby increasing demand for gold and causing the price to increase. That is hogwash. Take this week as an example.

The gold price is up because the dollar went down. But did the decline in the US dollar cause gold to become less expensive in euros? No. The gold price was 354.79 euros on Monday and 354.42 euros on Thursday. Clearly the gold price in euros did not change in any significant way. The same would be true if we consider the gold price in yen.

When the US dollar declines it does not change the gold price in other currencies and it does not change the demand for gold. It merely means that stuff we buy (or price) on international markets with US dollars become more expensive in US dollars.

I also read this week that the increase in the gold price was due to the looming labor strike in South Africa. A major strike in South Africa could have a short-term (emotional) impact on the gold price, but it did not this week. ..........STRIKE LAND RSA !!

If the gold price increased because of what is happening in South Africa don't you think the gold price in euros and yen would also have increased? Why would only the US dollar gold price increase? The gold price in euros decreased by 0.1% and increased by only 0.3% in yen. Because the gold price did not increase in euros and yen I do not think that talk about a labor strike in South Africa had anything to do with the increase in the US dollar gold price this week.

Since the magnitude of the change in the US dollar gold price coincides with the magnitude by which the US dollar exchange rate changed it is obvious that the only thing that changed this week is the dollar.

Paul van Eeden

GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES

By Eric J. Fry

"I hate to be the bearer of bad news," Kevin Kerr
apologized yesterday, "but the demise of the dollar is upon
us and the future may be bleak for the once worshiped and
almighty currency."

Kerr, whose knack for identifying important investment
trends has amply rewarded the subscribers of his Resource
Trader Alert, suspects that the dollar's difficulties will
continue powering a long-lived gold bull market. "Keep an
eye on gold," he advises. "Yesterday's big gold rally may
be the start of an important move in the precious metal."
No one knows, of course, the precise day when a long-term
macro-economic trend will begin to affect short-term price
movements, but that day for the U.S. dollar – and therefore
for gold – may have arrived already, even if very few
market observers realize it.

As the nearby chart shows quite clearly, the value of the
U.S. dollar has been sliding in step with America's
deteriorating national finances. Perhaps it is no accident,
therefore, that gold has rallied sharply over the last four
years. In 2001, the U.S. government enjoyed a budget
surplus equivalent to 1.2% of GDP. Meanwhile, the current
account deficit in that year totaled a mere 3.5%. Thus,
these two deficit gauges combined, totaled a mere 2.3% of
GDP. But both numbers have been worsening ever since, such
that these "twin deficits" totaled nearly 10% of GDP in
2004! That's a lot of debt to paper over with U.S. dollars.
No wonder that the Treasury will resume issuing 30-year
bonds.

"The dollar is the single biggest element of risk in the
world of finance today," writes Addison Wiggin in his
freshly minted book, The Demise of the Dollar...And Why
It's Great for Your Investments. "Rearrange the current
system of world finance ever so slightly. Let confidence in
the greenback falter, and the mighty dollar could go up in
flames...There are many ways to hedge against this risk...
Better still, there are many ways to profit from the
likelihood the dollar will fall."

Wiggin does not divulge the precise profit opportunities
until Chapter 12, but throughout the preceding 11 chapters,
he argues persuasively that the dollar's reign is ending.
Therefore, gold will once again usurp its rightful
authority over the world's monetary regime.

"What is real money?" he muses. "This question should be on
the minds of every investor and everyone who observes what
happens at home and abroad. The U.S. government has done an
excellent job of convincing us that all of those dollar
bills being exchanged work as actual money. In fact,
though, everyone knows they have no tangible value. They
are backed only by (a) a promise by the government to honor
the debt, and (b) assurances from the government that the
money does have value, that one dollar is worth one dollar.
Both of these promises are questionable."

Indeed, especially in light of America's worsening balance
sheet.

The Bush administration announced yesterday that it will
resume issuing the 30-year Treasury bond next year.
Treasury Secretary John Snow cheered the decision as
evidence of "our commitment to prudent debt management."
We are dubious. Prudent debt management seems a bit like
prudent alcoholism management. Wouldn't the most prudent
course of action be to eliminate the vice that requires
managing? Unfortunately, now that our national debts total
nearly $8 trillion, debt-management has become an eternal
imperative.

However prudently the U.S. might manage its debts, it is
imprudently increasing them, which is not very prudent at
all. Extending the maturities of our debts out into the
future, while prudent, cannot possibly do the entire job of
managing our debts. That's where the dollar comes in.
Nothing "manages" government debts quite as effectively as
currency-debasement. Such is the time-honored tactic that
all indebted governments have utilized throughout the ages.
The U.S. government will behave no differently, says
Wiggin.

It will satisfy its mounting liabilities with dollar bills
of ever less value. In other words, the dollar bills that
30-year bondholders would receive in 2035 will be worth
much, much less than today's dollars.

"How can the government promise to pay its debts when the
total of that debt keeps getting higher and higher?" Wiggin
asks. "It's already out of control. And in our fiat money
system, the implied promise that a dollar is worth a dollar
has to be looked at with suspicion as well.

"This is not just an exercise in economic theory. The near
future could prove to be a financial disaster for anyone
who continues to have faith in the strength of the dollar.
In fact, a collapse is inevitable and it's only a question
of how quickly it is going to occur.

"The consequences will be huge declines in the stock
market, savings becoming worthless, and the bond market
completely falling apart. As the value of the dollar falls,
that dollar will no longer be worth a dollar; it will be
worth only pennies on the dollar. It will be a rude
awakening for everyone who has become complacent about
America's invulnerability."

This is the part where gold rides to the rescue on a white
stallion.

"Gold ETFs are one of the simplest ways to position for the
dollar's continuing slide," says Wiggin. "The two gold ETFS
that trade here in the U.S. both hold gold bullion as their
one and only asset. You can locate these two ETFs under the
symbol "GLD" (for the "streetTRACKS Gold Trust") and "IAU"
(for the "iShares COMEX Gold Trust"). Either ETF offers a
practical way to hold gold in an investment portfolio."

Wiggin provides several other profit opportunities as well,
of which all dollar-phobic investors may avail themselves.

Kevin Kerr, who specializes in trading option on futures,
has been advocating the purchase of long-dated call options
on gold. (We should mention that Kevin issued his most
recent recommendation immediately BEFORE yesterday's gold
rally).

"Make no mistake," says Kerr, "gold is the real deal. Gold
doesn't have a board of directors; gold doesn't have
scandal; gold doesn't have an expense account or one-time
charges. Gold is quite simply, gold. We call it the
'flight to quality' instrument because in tough times,
times of fear and trepidation, investors flock to gold like
rednecks to a NASCAR race. Gold is relatively cheap right
now and options on it are a great deal. So it only makes
sense to add some gold calls."
Kerr suggests buying out-of-the-money calls on gold for
early 2006.

Perhaps yesterday's $5.00 gold rally was just another
meaningless blip. Perhaps not. One thing is clear; gold
does not lack for reasons to move higher.

http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/goldarticle080405.htm

LOOK FROM ALL SIDES, ITS JUST A MATTER OF TIME........

# All,

sehr wahrscheinlich löst sich das Dreieck nach oben auf?,denn die Leihzinsen die ja die ganze Zeit so um 1% herum lagen bis zum Frühjahr sind nun auf 3,5% gestiegen.Das ist meistens ein Indiz dafür für steigende Preise! Beim Gold sind es zur Zeit nur 0.24%.

grußhpoth

Silber und China

http://www.freemarketnews.com/reports/china-davidmorgan.pdf

Daran sollte man beim Investieren in China denken.

Denn die Chinesen haben das verinnerlicht.

(vergleichbar wie die Kreuzfahrten in Arabien unvergessen sind)

Der Boxeraufstand
===============

Ende des 19. Jahrhunderts machen sich ausländische Mächte in China

unbeliebt. England, Frankreich, Russland, die USA und Deutschland

beanspruchen Gebiete und Vorrechte für sich. Ihre Missionare stellen

das traditionelle Denken, der Chinesen auf den Kopf. Während die

Kolonialherren durch Industrialisierung und Handel immer reicher

werden, müssen Einheimische hungern. Bei vielen Chinesen kommt deshalb Hass auf.

Die sogenannte Boxerbewegung, ein Geheimbund aus Kampfsport-

begabten, jungen Männern, macht sich zum Ziel, die verabscheuten

Ausländer mit Gewalt zu verjagen. Sie zerstören Kirchen, töten

Missionare und chinesische Christen - der Kaiserhof schaut zu. Im

Frühjahr 1900 rückt der Aufstand aus den Provinzen bis nach Peking vor.

Am 20.Juni eskaliert der Konflikt: "Boxer" töten den deutschen

Diplomaten von Ketteler und beginnen mit der Belagerung des

Botschaftsviertels, das großteils von hohen Mauern umgeben ist.

Hier glaubten sich die Diplomaten aus Europa, Japan und den USA

sicher, hierhin flohen chinesische Christen. Jetzt müssen sie alle, etwa

3000 an der Zahl, um ihr Leben bangen, notdürftig verteidigt von einer

Schutztruppe, verpflegt mit schrumpfenden Vorräten. Ihre Rettung kommt

am 14. August, als internationale Truppen Peking erreichten und die

Stadt einnehmen. Im September 1901 muss China das so genannte

Boxerprotokoll unterzeichnen - die darin geforderten

Entschädigungszahlungen ruinieren das Reich finanziell.

FOLLOWING ARE A FEW POINTS OF NATURE THAT MAY HELP YOU TRADE SUCCESSFULLY:

1. It is sometimes advisable to temporarily exit the market: If one starts to incur loses and continues to do so, then it could mean that time or nature is against you. It would not be prudent to try and fight the losing streak in the hope that your luck will turn and make money. Instead, leave the market for at least 21 days (which is a three forth cycle of the SUN, MERCURY, VENUS and a half cycle of MARS). Try this and I am sure that you will not have a negative year.

2. Jupiter- which controls the financial market and money- always favours long term trading. In futures market therefore, don’t take big risks on the short term trend. You shall always make money if you follow nature’s wave on a long term basis. Its returns are much more assured.

3. As much as possible, ignore market news and avoid changing your focus once you have decided – Saturn is asking this promise from you. It is inadvisable to be swayed by happenings whose effect is only short lived only to lose out in the long run.

4. When I give a very strong recommendation that doesn’t prove correct, it certainly means that there is a mistake in my readings and planetary calculations. The best thing to do in this instance is to get out from the position that I am wrong for a few days.

My predictions on metals, coffee and grains are right most of the times. Oil and copper used to be very accurate but in recent months, the predictions have been rather shaky. They have been correct sometimes while off track other times and clearly, their accuracy has not been that great. As regards the stock market, I feel that I shall ultimately be vindicated, though I have been wrong overall- so far. At the same time, it really never went up and I therefore still wait for the fulfilment of my prediction.

Important Note: ANOTHER TWENTY DAYS ARE PENDING FOR A GREAT CRASH OF COMMODITY PRICES. JUST REMEMBER THIS NOTE AND YOU SHALL MAKE ENOUGH. I DIDN’T WANT TO REVEAL THE TIMING CONCERNING THIS PREDICTION AT THIS POINT, BUT I DECIDED TO DO SO TODAY AFTER RECEIVING SOME EMAILS FROM A FEW MEMBERS. JUST WAIT FOR A FEW WEEKS TO MAKE A FORTUNE.

LET SEE WHAT THIS WEEK INDICATES:

PREDICTIONS FOR 8 AUGUST TO 12 AUGUST.

GOLD

In the last ten days, gold strongly went up as predicted. It will move on both sides during this week and one can therefore buy in weakness and sell on its rising. Metal stocks will perform the same way. On the upside, gold could touch $448.60 (December gold) while the downside will be $438.80. For another few weeks, gold will have movements on both sides and you should therefore trade accordingly.

I shall let you know whenever a short term buying opportunity comes. In addition, I hope that you all know that I am very positive on gold for next year.

SILVER

During this week, silver will attempt to stabilize though its prospects do not look that impressive. Therefore, only trade long term call options in it.

The trading range for this week will be $6.98 to $7.20.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE POSITIVE DAYS FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER.

PALLADIUM

Palladium will remain stable. Buyers can accumulate on a long term basis as next year, prices could move above $400.

PLATINUM

After my recommendation to sell, it has been moving right up. However, a sudden down ward trend could occur within a few weeks. Indeed, it could fall 25% by the first quarter of 2006. Long term traders can therefore take advantage of this move.

OIL

Prices moved up on Thursday and Friday of last week. This week they will trade in range. All oil traders must know and remember that – THE UPWARD TREND IN OIL WILL END IN THREE WEEKS AND THEY SHOULD THEREFORE TRADE ACCORDINGLY.

ALL MAJOR PREDICTIONS ON OIL HAVE BEEN FULFILLED, THOUGH I HAVE BEEN OFF TRACK WITH REGARD TO THE SHORT TERM FOR THE LAST TWO MONTHS. AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT YEAR, OIL WILL BE ABOVE $105, BUT IT COULD FIRST REACH $48 FROM SEPTEMBER THROUGH THE NEXT FOUR MONTHS.

STOCK MARKET

All major markets lost ground in the last week and they will follow same path. Sell the Indian, European and USA markets as markets are entering into a long term downward trend.

CURRENCIES

I see a strong rise coming in the US DOLLAR from 16th of August. In addition, the Euro will touch 1.1230 in the next three months, so trade accordingly.

The dollar will stabilize on Monday and Tuesday, while it will have a strong upward move from Wednesday.

NATURE

For the last 18 months, I have been writing concerning water related accidents or water playing a devastating role to disrupt human life. It started with the Tsunami and we recently have had major flooding in China and India. The latest examples of water related incidents in the last 48 hours involve a Russian submarine as well as an Italian plane. These are a confirmation that the USA coast will soon be hit by devastating hurricanes or experience a serious water related accident in the next seven weeks. We pray that nature looks out for us and kindly deal with us.

Gold's Big Picture gets brighter every day as, gradually, people in all walks of life & income levels are turning to gold as a safe haven currency in a world where there is NO paper currency one can fully trust. The US$ is distrusted because of US debt & deficits. The euro was, 'til a few wks ago, seen as an alternative to the US$. But 2 European constitution referendum votes brought that notion into question, & the euro has since crashed. The yen has been in free fall. The £ was another alternative to the US$, but London bombs sent it into the cellar. No other currency is liquid enough to compete. And politicians themselves add to the lack of public faith. All the so-called leaders have got egg (or worse) on their faces. Gold is monetising itself, as it has often done in the past. It doesn't require govt proclamations to do so. It started even before the recent chaos in many nations. Gold stands still; the other things move around it, up or down. Lately they move down, so gold, by standing still (holding value), is the winner. It has risen in price not just against the US$, but most other currencies as well.

But gold bullion from a "long-term investor" point of view has been very puzzling over the last year. As our weekly gold chart reveals, gold has for last 12 months moved down, up, down, up, down, in 5 legs of several weeks each, & overall gradually compressing in size, to form a 1-yr symmetrical triangle. Traders, on the other hand (like us & our GoldChartsRUs readers) have not been puzzled - as it's not unusual for gold (both bullion & shares) to move in legs. We have sold, bought, sold, bought & sold, to match each of those 5 legs. It's obvious that, on balance, investor's (buy&hold) bullion portfolios have moved sideways, while traders could book profits at the end of each leg. This was naturally more profitable for gold shares than bullion. Chart (below) shows average gold share rose, in Schultz Gold Share Index terms, from 9.7 to 12.7, a 33% rise, while bullion went sideways.

1. Eastern Asia/China & the Indian subcontinent, which has taken over the leadership locomotive role. They want to trade (& raid) but definitely not become part of the West. They want to be separate & equal (or equal plus for China). They're delighted with their new-found & growing power.

2. The US: has lost thrust (due largely to Asia powering) & lost moral leadership (due to the coup d'état by the misguided policies of the neo cons). If the neo cons remain in power til 2009, they'll have destroyed so much of US economic, monetary & military power & influence it is unclear if it can be regained A.D. (After Dubya). US political policies have separated the US from the ROW (Rest of the World). Not a soul could deny that.

3. Europe's case is even more extreme. They're unsure if they want to reform their socialism. They're at home with their termites, but the structure can't survive trade winds (pun intended). Europe harbors a doomed economic & socio philosophy. If they agree to reform, it'll take years & maybe they don't have years (China). If they don't agree, they'll become a white-collar 2nd world. No longer 1st, but not quite 3rd. Blair implied as much in a brave speech last week. France is the weak link. They have an attitude problem. Germany is unhelpful. To top things off (& validate my point), France & Holland committed an extreme act of separatism by voting No on constitutional unification in recent elections. Euro states even separated themselves from US advice says columnist Wm Pfaff, who headlined his 6/18 IHT column: The Atlantic just got wider. (major European article inside).

4. Scandinavia should perhaps be seen as separate from Europe. They're more stable, yet more socially experimental, & highly inventive. Very different mind-set from Euro heartland. Often vote No on Euro affiliations. Mentally different, separate.

5. Black Africa, long a basket case economically, then politically (ego), now medically. Mostly refuses to help itself. Too busy arranging graft, corruption & channeling foreign aid into leader's pockets, & killing dissidents. Still sees itself in black (them) & white (us) terms. Most are disgusting racists, especially the leaders. We try to help, but they won't make the mindset changes needed for progress/health/survival. They would rather die (& will) than play by proven & humane rules. On present course, Africa literally won't survive both AIDS, their racial prejudice & victimitas. That black Africa won't intervene or even condemn the vile Mugabe is proof they prefer to wallow in racist excrement than evolve as humans. Exceptions? Sure, but they aren't in charge. Mbeki sucks; blind-sided & biased. Africans separate themselves from the world to an unacceptable extreme, exemplified last week by African Council refusal to act on Zimbabwean genocide, as requested by Europe/US/UN.

6. Brown (Arab) Africa: Also suffers from Colonial Blame Syndrome, but a few are less extreme. They let their Muslim religion separate themselves from ROW. Worst case: Sudan/Darfur, where Arabs seek to wipe out Blacks to make it an all Arab nation. Worse genocide than Yugoslavia/Milosevic. Separatism gone psycho.

7. SouthAmerica: Split. Non-cohesive. Who says that's bad? Separatization comes naturally here. That aside, the continent has some very pink spots (Venezuela, Cuba) & some bad behaviour (cutting rain forests). Is largely anti-US, as a result of old wounds from the fruit companies & ongoing mega bank treatment (lend & repossess), & terrible IMF advice (what do they know?) (not enough) (another bureaucracy). But becoming leading agricultural super power. Risk: over-dependence on China as customer & investor (bit like US/China). Hope S/A doesn't find China owns them one day.

8. Oz/NZ: Doing well, thank U. Happy to be left alone & separate. These 2 even avoid union with each other, have said yes/no/maybe, but No in the end. Oz even stopped free entry for Kiwis who freeloaded on the Oz system. Oz is still racist, which keeps separatism going, but is a sad trait. NZ resents tall poppies, but is more prosperous than ever which may allow for poppy growth. I love the Oz & NZ $'s, highest yielders in 1st world.

9. Canada: Many wish their US border was a 50-ft Berlin Wall. They're anti-Bushwars (& made it clear). They separated themselves, one by one, from the US 250yrs ago. That's how separatist & independent they are & good for them! Recent poll says they regard many Americans as "vulgar & violent." Many Americans agree & have been moving to Canada in record numbers.

10. Russia wants to trade with the West a bit, but mainly sees the West as a place to sell to (oil, gas, weapons), not buy from. They still want to rebuild their military empire. Putin wants continued separatism.

11. Middle East: they create their own separatism - in their heads. If they could open their minds/hearts they could thrive & conquer violence. Until they do, they'll fool themselves that their separation is demanded by their religion, rather than of free choice.

12. Japan/S.Korea: A separate world of their own culture/choice. No desire to change.

In conclusion: Separatization is rampant, & best. It offers more freedom & choice. It's the opposite of the Tri Laterals & One Worlder's plans which reduce choice--& illustrates our point. Fortunately, the world (as U see above) is moving away from homogenized culture & political globalization. Merriam Webster defines "globalism" as "a national policy of treating the whole world as a proper place for political influence." To which I say it is an improper policy. The US Founding Fathers sought separation from England with its then lack of free will. We're still fighting for free will, separation, choice.

PS: "globalization" (as opposed to globalism) has come to bring another aspect to that political definition, ie, a commercial dog-eat-dog process fostered by multi-national companies who also pressure politicians to push through subsidies & 1-sided trade treaties, like NAFTA, that give global corp giants an advantage over small biz, & lose jobs in the 1st world nations. Another case of big is usually bad, small is usually better. Especially if U favour individuals over global giants.

How to benefit from Separatization? Many ways. Avoid the multi-nationals. In the longterm their overseas factories, offices, chains, shops will often be confiscated, attacked or taxed punitively, &/or their domestic mkt may shrink from local job outsourcing boycotts. Look at their charts; some are already short sells. Those who forsake outsourcing may gain biz. Trade wars have begun. This requires careful geo-scrutiny of country funds. More ideas to come.

http://www.321gold.com/editori…tz/schultz080805_hsl.html

Ok, hier ist es...