Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Der Astrologe Merrimar schreibt diese Woche folgendes:

As readers know, I am looking for the 4-year cycle crest in the U.S. stock market this year, followed by a 20+% decline into the 4-year cycle trough, due March-December 2006. I also believe that the Dollar will take another big hit, and Gold will eventually rise beyond $600.00 by 2008 (it may fall briefly below $400.00 first). In anticipation of these large movements that may take place by the end of this decade.

Ueber Oil schrieb er vor Katrina:

And of course we have to mention crude oil, which made yet another new all time high on Friday at 67.95, before selling off to close at 66.13. The good news is that this is still within two weeks of Jupiter trine Neptune. And, as we made a slightly higher high above the 67.75 and 67.70 levels of August 12 and 16, the technical momentum indicators were weaker, showing the possibility of a substantial decline may be starting. The 4-year cycle top is now due, and a pullback to the 40’s is possible. But I still think we will see $100.00 while Uranus is in Pisces, probably when Saturn opposes Neptune in 2007.
And then an 80-90% crash into 2011......dann sollte der Oil/Gold Ratio wieder stimmen.

http://www.mmacycles.com/artweek.htm

So eine Sch.....e, da schau ich besser nicht mehr hin.
Wird eine gute Woche fuer POG sagte Tambok, ja super !
Man muss die Chart nur umdrehen.

http://www.godmode-trader.de/n…alle.php?ida=246125&idc=8

@Eldo,

also jetzt um 15.00 Uhr PoG 430,50 runter 6 USD.

Wo ist das Problem?

Goldgugs spucken dem System in die Suppe.

Dafür kriegen wir öfters mal Schläge auf den Hinterkopf.

Das ist aber Streicheln mit sanfter Hand.

Wieviel stehen wir beim PoG unter dem Hoch der letzten 10 Jahre?

5% oder 7% oder 9%?

Tambok

CPM Silver Survey predicts 43.4M oz '05 deficit
By: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: '30-AUG-05 04:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004

RENO--(Mineweb.com) Forecasting an average silver price of $7.09 an ounce this year, a supply deficit of 43.4 million ounces, and stronger investor interest in the metal, New York-based precious metal and commodities consultancy CPM Group has released its annual silver survey Tuesday.

Nevertheless, CPM cautioned that, for the silver market to retain the interest of new investors from the equity and fixed income markets, there must be more transparency "in the form of detailed, credible statistics and analysis" from a market that is "poorly understood and under-analyzed, in which obvious errors circulate as facts."

In its "Silver Survey 2005, " CPM asserts that "for decades there have been groups that have benefited from what economists call the asymmetrical, or inefficient nature of the silver market." When the market is impacted by wrong information, "investors, producers, users and others can position themselves to profit from the inevitable correction," according to the survey. While this situation may have benefited those who had access to strong market information and analysis, it has also discouraged new investors.

The study estimates that, overall, world mine silver production will total 527.3 million ounces this year, up 1.7% from 2004. Total supply is estimated at 774.3 million ounces for 2005 for a 3.2% increase. CPM forecasts that industrial demand for silver will total 805.7 million ounces, a slight increase of 1.4% over 2004. A deficit of 31.4 million ounces is predicted in the bullion market this year. When combined with coinage and changes in inventories, the study predicts an overall silver deficit of 43.4 million ounces in 2005.

CPM forecasts an average silver price of $7.09 per ounce for 2005, up 9.2% from 2004. "Taking a look at the silver price from a longer term perspective, it is clear that this price of silver remains low compared to its highs of 1979-1980, when it touched $50 per ounce," the study notes. Nevertheless, CPM asserts that "the price of silver may have further upside potential."

The single most important contributor to the rise in silver prices "may be that available investors of silver in bullion and bullion coin forms are reaching low levels," the study suggests. CPM estimated that bullion inventories are currently around 300 million ounces. Meanwhile, an extended period of strong fabrication demand, combined with current supply deficits, are consuming both reported and unknown inventories.

Meanwhile, CPM noted that while governments, particularly the Bank of China, sold about 10 million ounces of silver into the market in 2004, "few if any sales are expected this year."

Renewed interest in silver investment also contributed to the rise in silver prices. "As prices began rising over the past 18 months, some of the remaining stock holders have seen that silver prices can rise, significantly, and have decided to wait to sell until later, hopefully at a higher price. This has reduced the flow of silver from bullion inventories into the market, adding upward pressure to the prices," according to the study.

Institutional investors have become more involved in silver in 2004 and 2005, according to CPM. "For the most part, they have remained in silver futures, forwards, options, and other derivative products. Some have been purchasing physical silver, however. Several million ounces of silver are believes to have been added to professionally managed investment portfolios since the beginning of 2004," the report stated.

However, "most fund management companies continue to use silver mining and exploration company shares as their preferred medium for buying access to silver. Others will use futures and forwards, or will purchase silver-indexed debt issued by a bullion trading banks," the survey said. Meanwhile, CPM wasn't optimistic about the future of proposed silver ETFs due potential issues with regulators stemming from "the relative lack of liquidity in the silver market compared to the gold market."

CPM asserts that "basic economies dictate that the market will need to come back into balance. For this to happen, prices will have to rise sufficiently to stimulate increased supplies of silver to be developed and/or discourage fabrication demand." Also, due to price inelasticities on the supply and demand for silver, prices may have to rise and stay at high levels to bring the market into balance.

While CPM estimates that silver use will rise 1.4% to 805.7 million ounces this year, photography demand is "seen as falling sharply." Nonetheless, demand is rising in jewelry, silverware, electronics and other uses this year.

The study suggests that there may be "a net inflow of silver into transitional economies, specifically China, from the international market" this year. However, how much silver is actually moving into China is not yet clear. CPM asserts that "big changes" are underway in the Indian silver market, which may reduce the future demand for silver. The most obvious change was that the Indian government began selling silver from its own inventories at the beginning of this year. Although the Indian Government announced it would sell 19.2 million ounces of silver in 2005, CPM suggested that the sales may be lower.

As India loses market share in industrial products such as chemical catalysts, and electronic plating salts and chemicals to China and other countries, this reduces silver use in India. "There is also a shift away from silver and gold objects as gifts, for example at weddings, in favor of imported manufactured luxury items," according to the study. Meanwhile, rural savings in the nation also appear to be shifting away from silver and gold. "

Nevertheless, CPM suggests that "China will continue to be a major source of silver supply and demand." In fact, the study assert that China will become a more significant silver miner.

The volumes of silver being traded on futures and options exchanges in New York, Tokyo and Chicago have risen so sharply that they now exceed the amount of silver being cleared across the London bullion market, according to CPM. Meanwhile two trends--less liquidity and a pulling back of shorts--may have helped "open the possibility of higher silver prices." CPM estimates that futures and options exchanges trading volume will exceed 32.72 billion ounces while the London Bullion market clearing volume will be 25.3 billion ounces this year.

CPM suggest that mine production will continue to decline by 2.5% this year to as low as 93.5 million ounces in the world's top silver-producing nation, Mexico. Peru may replace Mexico in the top spot with a record 101 million ounces this year. Australia will remain the third largest silver producer, followed by the U.S. and Canada. "Longer term, silver mine production is likely to rise," according to the study, which suggests 22 million ounces of new capacity could come on-stream in 2006 from six mines.

In late 2007, Apex Silver's San Cristobal mine will produce 22 million ounces annually when it comes on line. Barrick's Pascua Lama could produce 18 million ounces annually when it commences production in 2009.

Several new uses for silver are emerging, according to CPM. "Perhaps the most exciting and interesting is the use of silver as a shield for superconductive wire. ...the growth rate of silver use in superconductive wires may far outstrip any loss of market in the photographic sector going forward." However, CPM believes that silver use in photograph may fall 9.4% this year to 217 million ounces. Nevertheless, silver use in batteries and other electronic components may rise 5% this year to 112.1 million ounces, the survey predicts.

To learn more about the report, go to http://www.cpmgroup.com.

Dies sind doch sehr erfreuliche Nachrichten. Das Angebotsdefizit liegt bei 43,4 Mio. Unzen und die Minenproduktion geht zurück !

Danke Silbertaler und Tambok, ich freue mich riesig.
Diese Washouts oder 7 Dollar Streicheleinheiten der Pundits sind aber weniger erfreulich.
Was solls, es ist ja nicht das Ende der Geschichte.

Mfg

XAX

Die Gold- und Silberpreisentwicklung ist ausgezeichnet.
Genau wie von mir erwartet!

Man darf eben nie den angeblichen "Experten" vertrauen!

Mein Rat: abwarten!

Man kann ja nur abwarten oder kaufen falls man glaubt es ist nun am Boden. Experten , ja davon gibts genug, man muss immer noch seiner eigenen Bauchgefuehl folgen wenn es um kaufen oder verkaufen geht.

Mfg

XAX

Aladin,

was meinst Du.. bei den aktuellen Oelpreisen (Brent Crude Oct z.Z. bei 68.60 $ an der IPE !) duerfte psychologisch ein Boden fuer Gold gefunden sein. Bin eben einige Futures long gegangen im Dec Gold.

Hoffen wir mal auf Gegenreaktion - aber meine stops sind sehr eng (430 fuer dec Gold, aktuell 434)

mfG

Ghost, ich habe es auch im anderen Thread erwaehnt, die lows von vorhin waren der Boden fuer Gold und Silber. Das Rad dreht sich "momentan",ich hatte soweit recht mit, die 429 $ halten.
Das stinkt ja zum Himmel, nach Katrina geht Dollar hoch und Gold runter.
Die haben nun ihre Munition verschossen diese Woche, diese Saubande.
Deine 420 $ sind zu weit unten angesetzt IMHO.
Bei Ladenschluss sollten wieder 432 USD da sein IMHO.
Und Silber bei 6.79 USD, schaetze ich mal.
Hoffe der HUI steht wieder ueber 200, XAU 94, das ist mir am wichtigsten im Moment. Der Rest ist reines Crimex Specs Games was dort getrieben wird.So etwas dauert nicht lange,dann kommen die physical buyers angeflogen wie die Fliegen bei solchen Preisen.
Sche....e, an solchen Tagen wie heute fehlt mir meistens die Munition.

Anyway, expect the unexpected.

XAX

"This is technical and there's no fundamental change in the gold market," Nickas said. "Down the road, it's still a bull market."

Thanks Edel Man, so ist es gelaufen !

Der Guru hat nur eines im Kopf,vorhin kam diese Nachricht:

DEAR MEMBERS,
OIL IS NOW TRADING AT $70.80, MAXIMUM RISK FOR OIL IS $71.10, WHAT A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO GO SHORT ON OIL, NATURAL GAS, HEATING OIL, UNLEADED AND GOLDMAN SACH COMMODITY INDEX (WHICH IS FOR OIL).

ONCE AGAIN I CONFIRM THAT WITH IN SIX WEEK OIL WILL REACH IN FIFTY'S.

Jetzt kommen schon die ersten Vorschlaege Kohle in Benzin umzuwandeln in Amerika.
Die Kosten waeren ca. 35 Dollar/Barrel.Man hat Kohle fuer die naechsten 100 Jahre und waere gleichzeitig unabhaengig von den Arabs.

Ein Freund von mir sagt immer am besten ist es heutzutage alles zu leasen oder mieten, auch die Frau hat er nicht gesagt.

" Schelm, der Schlechtes dabei denkt "!

Liechtenstein fund prepping for $600/oz gold
By: Gareth Tredway
Posted: '30-AUG-05 07:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- The €55-million Top Gold fund in Switzerland has increased its South African gold exposure over the last few months to 35% of its total funds invested. This is according to one of the funds managers, Jean-Pierre Schumacher, who says Top Gold believes gold will hit multi-year highs next year.

“Gold will hit $600/oz next year, whether it hits $500/oz before the end of this year, we’ll have to wait and see.”

Schumacher points out that global economic and political factors will continue to deteriorate into next year. At the same time, he says, “Asia remains a big buyer.”

In September, GFMS in London, is due to release its update on gold demand, while Paul Walker, the chief executive, recently told Mineweb that demand out of the East remains robust.

Schumacher adds that another key fundamental pushing gold higher is the new recovery highs reached by the yellow metal versus the world’s major currencies, with all gaining around 10% in the past few months.

In Swiss francs, gold has shot above the F550/oz level from around F500/oz in February. In yen gold is trading around ¥48,000/oz from below ¥45,000 in January. In euros, gold is hovering around its June 23 high of 366/oz, compared to 330/oz earlier in the year.

If one looks at the oil:gold ratio it also suggests a much higher gold price is required to match the oil price jump, or it could suggest that oil is overpriced.

Ferdinand Lips, the other manager of the fund, is a non-executive on the board of Western Areas, one of the three Kebble companies that are under shareholder pressure to restructure. The other two are JCI and Randgold & Exploration.

Schumacher says that being an investment fund, Top Gold does not get involved in the politics of these companies. Plus they only make up 3% of the fund combined. “Despite this I think there is tremendous value in those companies, but the communication to shareholders is below average,” says Schumacher.

Lips sits on the boards of uranium and gold hopeful, Aflease. Schumacher is a non-executive director of gold junior, Simmer & Jack.

Schumacher says the biggest potential Top Gold sees is in Simmer & Jack (Simmers). “We see Simmers as one of the biggest opportunities since Randgold Resources was born,” says Schumacher.

Simmers recently arranged a $10 million financing and royalty deal with Canadian listed Aberdeen to purchase the North West gold mines that DRDGold liquidated earlier this year. Schumacher explains why the money came from North America. “I think Canadian investors react faster to the potential in South African assets than others do,” he said, “It takes people time to understand the importance of a good deal.”

Top Gold currently owns 27% of Simmers, after it entered a scrip lending arrangement with JCI and the Simmers rights issue was complete. In an announcement last Thursday, Simmers said it is now 32.9% owned by European gold funds.

Another Swiss fund is the Rand Fund, a SwFr10-million fund investing in South African and African gold and platinum miners. Nearly a quarter of the fund is invested in American listed Centurion gold, a junior gold producer that recently said it had received a takeover offer from an unnamed company for double its shareprice.

No word yet but sources say an announcement is due out within a couple of weeks.

The next biggest shareholding in the fund is Harmony Gold, making up 17.8% and Gold Fields making up 8.1%.

The rand fund forecasts a R3,200/oz (R102,882/kg) gold price by year’s end.

So, what happened yesterday ?

GO GATA!!!

The London AM Gold Fix was $436.15, down just 15 cents from Monday afternoon’s Comex close.

The Gold Cartel has played out its orchestrated script once again. What you have here on the Comex is a cabal owned Casino that rigs the roulette wheel and steals money from its patrons. It is nothing more than white-collar theft. Salute these bums for making money? Why, do you salute the Mafia? When caught, the Mafiosi are thrown in jail. Why should it be any different for the Gold Cartel crooks? GATA has caught them. The Comex has become nothing more than a racketeering operation and has been that way for many years now.

Yesterday MIDAS went into very specific detail on The Gold Cartel’s Sunday evening activities and how they were moving in to butcher the gold price with their ramping up of the dollar (when the news was overwhelmingly dollar negative). It has been so obvious what The Gold Cartel was trying to accomplish, I didn’t think they could get away it for the fifth time in less than a year. Wrong on this score MIDAS.

Last evening the Working Group on Financial Markets and The Gold Cartel began chipping away again at the foreign currencies like they did on Sunday night in preparation for this morning’s rape of the gold bulls. With oil headed for the moon and the damage in the US Gulf catastrophic (and quite negative for the US economy), the cabal forces went in for the kill and moved further to flush out the heavily long funds. The cabal’s motive was obvious and they used their usual See Spot Run tactic again. Look kindergarten American public:

"Oil is soaring to $70 per barrel, natural gas is going bananas and commodity prices are making new 25-year highs. However, this is not inflationary and of no real concern, just look at the falling gold price."’

Is that retarded, or what? The sick part is this is just how Planet Wall Street will report all of this. In addition, they will blame the speculators for the collapse of the gold price. It is beyond absurd.

Yet, it is even more Machiavellian than that. The last thing the Orwellians want is the US intermediate and long-term interest rates to soar in reaction to soaring inflation in the US.

They want to prevent, as much as possible, an economic/stock market debacle – which could easily kick in due to recent developments. Not only will sharply higher interest rates hurt the stock market, they will bury the real estate market with energy prices surging. Were gold to have soared above $440, it would’ve confirmed the inflation scenario and affected the interest rate picture, perhaps dramatically so. With gold collapsing, they can point to how these recent developments are negative for the economy and thus justify LOWER rates, which is what happened.

http://www.godmode-trader.de/n…alle.php?ida=246492&idc=8

bitte genau lesen!!!