Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

"In Friday's Wall Street Journal, not one article on the New Orleans disaster on page 1 and page 3. On page 2 only one article. Unbelievable ! London's Financial Times had full page 1, 2 and 3 coverage on New Orleans. Can there be any better proof of the state of denial on Wall Street."

That is what MIDAS calls orchestrated denial and repression of facts detrimental to US markets. It is the reason GATA is not even allowed to be mentioned in the US financial market press after all these years, even after holding two major conferences in Durban, South Africa and Dawson City in the Yukon Territory of Canada.

Now to the nitty-gritty of all of this and how (I believe) it is going to affect all of us.

For years it has been my contention (and that of many of my GATA colleagues) that the price of gold would never do anything until one of two events occurred:

Demand for physical gold outstripped what The Gold Cartel was able to secure from the dwindling supply of the central banks.
Some event struck the market which overpowered the Gold Cartel’s massive derivatives operation – meaning financial market events made it impossible for the cabal to manipulate and suppress the gold price any longer.
It seems to me Katrina is such an event and will prove to be the tipping point which will force The Gold Cartel into a Napoleon-like retreat. Why:

* The economic damage resulting from Katrina is likely to be far greater than any other calamity to hit the US. The actual cost of the catastrophe could be 5 to 10 times greater.

*The US will likely print money like crazy to handle the problem. The dollar, in trouble to begin with, is sure to crater in the weeks and months ahead.

*The US economic numbers are going to be horrendous in the months to come.

*Inflation is going to pick up substantially as numerous costs escalate in the US due to the devastating hurricane.

*The US consumer, already saddled with enormous debt and the smallest family savings in history, will be forced to cut back spending as energy costs alone remain very high for the foreseeable future. This reduced spending will have an increased multiplier effect on the US economy.

*Huge energy price increases are going to affect many homeowners. This could easily prick the housing bubble as distressed owners put homes back on the market.

*Various industries will have severe financial problems. The mortgage and banking concerns in the southern gulf area come to mind.

*The US is stretched financially and manpower-wise in Iraq. Katrina exposed how vulnerable we are and there will be more cries to get out of there. If we stay it will lead to further stress on the US financial markets. Leaving in the near future could lead to unbelievable chaos.

*Iraq is near civil war anyway, based on the latest reports … hard to imagine civil war will not erupt by this fall. The reputation of the US, in rapid decline, will plummet, adding more pressure on the dollar and giving additional support to gold.

*Short-term the US stock market could do anything due to the Orwellians pulling the strings. However, it is only a matter of time before it tanks. Foreigners are likely to cut back further with their Treasury purchases, sending US long-term interest rates much higher over the next year.

*Then, there is the inflation,/gold issue. When you step back and look at the big picture, The Gold Cartel’s price suppression scheme could not be more obvious. A picture is worth a thousand words, so let us review the monthly charts of oil and the CRB versus gold’s:

Die Goldrunner Theorie....sehr optimistisch !

http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…_05/goldrunner090505.html

UPDATE ON THE HUI

In our first couple of editorials we discussed the HUI index and Silver. It seems that the fractal relationship shown in the first HUI editorial continues to play out. I believe we will see a rather vertical move over the next couple of weeks to approximately the 240ish area. After that, a series of vertical moves might take us to 280ish, and 365ish. At least I have seen nothing that might suggest a change of expectations.

Though we invest longer-term and only sell smaller portions of our core PM holdings at what we consider intermediate tops, we tried to time the last editorial on Silver from a short-term perspective. It seems we were a day early, but if that bottom should hold in the longer time-frames, we will quietly smile, and smile widely…….for "An Explosion IS coming!"

A Few Words on Gold Shares
Author: Jim Sinclair

As you can see from this weekend’s work, some of our gold shares drew very dangerous charts just prior to the rally in gold.

Some of the silver shares have done the same. Other precious metal shares such as GG and RGLD took the lead away from the standard large producers in terms of percentage appreciation. The question is WHY?

My take is as follows:

1. The loss taken by NEM on derivatives regardless of how acquired rightly or wrongly has been somewhat shocking to the group.
2. It has been the standard operating practice of the gold industry to finance new projects with lenders on a non-recourse basis. The only way a lender will make a loan on a non-recourse basis is if a short of gold derivative is in place for the duration of the pay-back period thereby relieving the lender of the economic risk of the project.
3. New accounting regulations require companies with short of gold derivatives to apply them as a debit or credit by a mark to market to the specific project for which they were entered into. Because of this, earnings on specific projects may well be injured by a rise in the gold price.
4. Some producers have the short of gold derivative imbedded in the indenture of the loan agreement thereby elevating the need to report except as long term debt. This is not a common practice. This may be a cheeky way to hide the derivative, yet if the loan is non-recourse the derivative is in fact there.
5. The way to know if a derivative risk exists is to ask if the loan is non-recourse for if it is, you have the derivative risk.
6. Juniors are not exempt from this risk as the major handles the project financing. A junior must commit its percentage of the property with a major therefore accepting all the terms of the risk as it pertains to that project according to their percentage ownership of the project. Many juniors do not even realize this.
7. Companies with no derivative risk and are producing have found good sponsorship.
8. The funds always play ABX and NEM regardless. This is because of the liquidity of their respective markets.
9. As in the case of RGLD, the royalty business plan has been discovered by the marketplace as a money maker with no derivative risk, acting as a proxy for gold in the market place.
10. One wonders if silver needs a combination of a busy economic surrounding as well as a weak dollar to perform well. Silver may well be an industrial/monetary metal which needs bunker and Herbert to really perform. No insult intended for the super silver bulls but only a reasonable question to consider.

A Head & Shoulders formation whose measured move on a breakdown of the neckline is zero or more is the scariest thing that can happen to any situation in the marketplace.

Therefore, it is up to you to check the fundamental situation on any item that forms a significant bearish Head & Shoulders, most certainly during the May to present rally in the gold shares as a group. Look for non-recourse loans.

It is also my conclusion that the illegal shorts in the gold group are not shorts among many hedge funds. The shorts were going for the jugular vein on the gold shares when the US economic indices trended negative and the dollar formed its up trending bearish Head & Shoulders.

All this was well before the killer hurricane struck New Orleans. Now of course everything will be blamed on the hurricane including the problems of GM and Ford, if not Asian flu and the mumps.

These shorts can be driven to the wall but it will take a savvy management to recognize the risk and to know how to turn the tide in the benefit of their shareholders. It takes money in the pocket, success on the ground, a good business plan and trading smarts.

Remember when the tide is right, winners continue to win and losers lag no matter what equity group we are discussing

Immer schoen innerhalb der Toilettenschuessel bleiben !

Goldnachfrage steigt stetig an!

Gold to the moon II. ?

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LONDON (Mineweb.com) --The World Gold Council has released its second-quarter (and therefore also the first-half) figures for gold demand. The numbers, independently compiled for WGC by GFMS Ltd., show a 21% increase in tonnage terms and a 29% increase in dollar terms over the first half of 2004.
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And demand was strong enough to absorb a 14% increase in total supply easily despite a 9% increase in the gold price to a pm fixing average of $417.39; the picture is of a vibrant market indeed.

To put some numbers behind this; the total for the quarter was 949 tonnes, of which jewellery was 728 tonnes. Identifiable investment reached 110 tonnes. Industrial and dental demand rose by 40% to 111 tonnes. Supplies from mine, scrap and the official sector amounted to 895 tonnes during the quarter.

The second quarter of 2005 was the sixth consecutive quarter of positive year-on-year growth and, probably more significantly, the third consecutive quarter of double digit growth. Seen in their most positive light, the figures show that the twelve months to end-June this year registered record expenditure on jewellery in US dollar terms, at $38 billion, and beating the previous high of 1997.

The outlook suggests that while many factors supporting the upward demand trend remain in place, the growth in the first half of this year has been so strong that it is possible that the pace will be moderated in the second half. What is particularly encouraging, though, is that reports from the regions where consumers are normally deterred by price volatility [Indian sub-Continent, Middle and Far East] have not yet been greatly deterred by the rise in price that started in late July.

Jewellery offtake in the first half of the year was up on the first half of 2004 by 17% in tonnage terms and 24% in dollar terms, largely due to a favourable economic backdrop in key markets, continued consumer confidence in higher gold prices and good results from effective promotional activity dating back to 2003. In China the substitution from platinum into white gold has helped, as it has to a degree in Europe and the US, largely as a result of high platinum prices although this is not a new development.

In terms of growth rates, investment is the star of the show, with tonnage up by 20% in the second quarter and by 66% for the first half as a whole. At the retail level, net investment was up by 36% in tonnage terms and 45% in dollar terms. Most retail investment categories showed strong growth, with double-digit advances for bar hoarding and the purchases of medal and individual coins. This was driven particularly by India, with support from Turkey and Vietnam.

The Exchange Traded Funds paused for breath during Q2, with total gold invested in the products declining very slightly as redemptions in the less liquid funds marginally outstripped the new creations in StreetTRACKS, the market leader. However, an additional 19 tonnes of new creations in Street Tracks Gold shares during July and August has already more than compensated for the overall decline in the second quarter, putting the sector as a whole back on the growth track.

Welcome resurgence in jewellery

Until two years ago jewellery demand in all markets (Turkey apart) was either stagnant or in decline and Jim Burton, the Council’s CEO, commented: “It is imperative that we not only maintain, but increase our promotional efforts if gold jewellery is either to retain or grow its share of consumer spending”. It is noticeable, though, that in the key areas where the Council has been concentrating its promotional campaigns, growth in gold offtake has been stronger than in the majority of other areas.

The figures bear out the anecdotal evidence that has been coming through from gold dealers over the course of the quarter, especially the sustained strength in demand form India, which registered its highest ever quarterly demand both in tonnage and rupee terms. Offtake reached 277 tonnes, and this exceeded even the surge in demand in the first quarter of 1998, immediately after import liberalisation.

Highlights: India, the Middle East and China remain vibrant; Europe a problem

India is the world’s largest market for gold and its 277 tonnes accounted for an astounding 29% of total consumption in the quarter (typically India accounts for 18-20% of total). Jewellery offtake was up by 42% in the quarter over the second quarter of 2004 and by 54% for the first half year against year-ago levels. This was driven by a strong economy, increased promotion and improved rural incomes on the back of high crop prices plus a good winter harvest. Price movements were also important; much of the local market has taken the view that that gold prices are on an upward path and so while prices were easing marginally in the first half of the year they were accordingly seen as buying opportunities.

In the Middle East, demand was up by 13% aided by strong oil and healthy tourism; local economies are booming and offtake was also helped by the fact that gold prices were below the peaks of 2004. Turkey, one of the major success stories of late, was again strong, with demand up by 7% and the second quarter was up on year-ago levels for the third consecutive year.

In the US, innovative jewellery has seen very good growth as retailers have focused on strong marketing in an effort to preserve margins; demand was accordingly up by 4% in tonnage terms and 13% in value terms against Q2 2004; and gold outpaced growth in diamond sales in the quarter despite the rise in gold’s price.

Mainland China is still experiencing low physical investment as it is still very soon after the liberalisation of the investment market at the end of 2004; the promise is there, but it will take time for investment to pock up. Jewellery deregulation though was largely complete in 2003 and the jewellery industry is reaping the reward – enhanced not only by high crop prices but also the rapid growth of K-gold, which is 18-carat material with sophisticated design that is appealing to the urban consumer.

On the downside, Europe remains a problem area for gold jewellery demand, notably in Italy and the UK where sales fell by 7% and 14% respectively in the face of competition from other materials and ebbing consumer confidence overall.

Supply up by 14% over the second quarter of 2004

Total supplies in the second quarter were down against the first quarter at 895t against 1,048 tonnes, largely due to a reduction in official sector supplies and in an increase in de-hedging from the miners.

Mine production increased slightly to 620t, while the hedge book was reduced by 85 tonnes in the second quarter, giving an 8% increase in mine supply over Q2 2004 to 620t. Official Sector supplies were up by 86% at 147t, while scrap supply was up by only 3% as consumers adjusted to higher prices. The second year of the second Central Bank Gold Agreement kicks off on September 27 so while official sector supplies are likely to have been subdued in the third quarter (because so much of the CBGA metal came out in the fist six months of the CBGA year), it is also likely to pick up in the fourth quarter – at the same time as seasonal demand tends to strengthen further.

No price forecast, but…

The Council is prevented for legal reasons from making price forecasts. This column can adduce an interpretation, however – and it must be stressed that this is an editorial comment and does not come from the WGC. Reports for the first part of the third quarter suggest that offtake remains high. Subject always to sharp movements in price the backdrop continues to confirm that the underlying demand pressures in the market are strong and other factors, both fundamental and external, are supportive. Speculators have obviously been taking similar views recently and there are lingering concerns about the speculative overhang, but the underlying tone remains sound.

Quelle: http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/482260.htm

Die Oil Inventories sind hoeher als erwartet (gerade veroeffentlicht worden), folglich brechen die Oelpreise gerade ein, Brent Crude und WTI ca. 1.5 Dollar im minus - Dow geht hoch, Gold & Silber wieder runter.

Starker move beim Oel..

sell off ist m.E. deutlich uebertrieben, Oel recovert schon wieder.

Wuerde mich wundern, wenn Brent im minus schliesst - Silber im spot im Tief runter auf 6.96 als Reaktion (m.E. eher psychologisch begruendet), z.Z. schon wieder fester.

m.E. kein Grund, die ralley abzusagen

@ Edel Man

Da gibts auch einige die meinen das nochmal ein Tuscher runter kommt wenn die 456 USD Marke nicht geknackt wird. Eine heftige umkaempfte Marke ist das. Durch irgend einer Bombshell oder Trick koennte das PPT noch einmal auf die 429 USD druecken. Darauf sollte jeder gefasst sein und nicht mit "Hurra" jetzt voll einsteigen. Wenn du auf die Chart oben von Dir schaust, dann koennte kurzfristig bis auf den unteren Rand von dem Kreisel der HUI nochmals auf die 200 aufschlagen damit sollte jeder rechnen.

Erst wenn die 456 Marke Vergangenheit ist der Weg auf die 1000 $ frei die sicher 3 Jahre dauert.

Bin gespannt ob der Dollar nochmal ein High bekommt durch einen erneuten Brainwash mit den Maerkten und Anlegern.

Ich schaetze das der Dollar um 30 % faellt ueber die naechsten Jahre , wichtig ist wie sich Gold in anderen Waehrungen wie Euro/C$/CHF verhaelt.

Ob der Guru M recht hat Ende des Jahres ?? ...glaube nicht !

Der schickte heute einen Alert das man Goldstock verkaufen sollte und das ein 400 USD Tsunami kommt, der Dollar nun steigt.

Entweder ist der Guru ein $ Maulwurf oder es kommt echt so wie er sagt, wir werden es ja sehen.

Von unseren HUI 160 Guru hoert man auch nicht viel.

Expect the unexpected, trotzdem aufpassen wenn alle zum Angriff blasen.

Mfg

XAX

"" am Hoch der Vorwochen bei 219,34 Punkten kann es nochmals zu einem Rücksetzer kommen. Das übergeordnet bullische Setup wird aktuell aber erst bei einem Rückfall unter 198,00 Punkte auf Schlussbasis gefährdet. "
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Genau das habe ich gemeint Edel Man.

Spaetestens bei 240 sind Gewinnmitnahmen, die setzen dann auch zurueck.

Gnight

XAX

Zitat

Erst wenn die 456 Marke Vergangenheit ist der Weg auf die 1000 $ frei die sicher 3 Jahre dauert.

Das wäre dann so ganz nach meinem Geschmack....sollte der Goldpreis in den nächsten 3 Jahren über 1.000US$ gehen hätte ich ausgesorgt
Meine Minenwerte hätten sich bis dahin mindestens verfünffacht.....das sollte dann für meine Immobilienpläne und einen ruhigen Lebensabend reichen....hiefür wäre ich sogar bereit 4 Jahre zu warten

Grüsse