Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Goldy,

du meinst sicherlich GoldyThread und nicht golfytread.

re:
Our WAIT tag says all that is to say. Keep on staying short or at cash until the next signal. Do not bother yourself with any further buying or selling, as long as the WAIT tag stays.

Grundsätzlich ist die Kunst zu warten bis sich die Dinge klären,
eine gute Eigenschaft.

Nur, wie jeder Fischer weiss, es ist besser und einträglicher,
mit einem vollen Boot vorm Hafen auf die einlaufende Flut zu warten.
Mit einem leeeren bleibt man besser gleich draussen.

Oder wie es ein Bauer ausdrücken würde: Winterheu ist erst Winterheu,
wenn es trocken in der Scheune liegt.

Goldy, ich weiss wirklich nicht, was ich von dir halten soll.
Bisweilen habe ich dass Gefühl, du hast dich in Wirklichkeit bereits
vollgesogen mit Gold und Silber und versuchst nur deine Unsicherheiten,
was die Zukunft dieses Investments betrifft, an den Mann/die Frau zu bringen.

Gruss

Germoney

Indian Demand this week

There is no doubt that the Indian buyer is still looking with absolute disbelief and distrust at the market in gold. Buyers are grumbling and sellers are delighted because gold has risen from Rs 6,100 to Rs 7,500 a 23% increase in the last three months. Retail sales have come down 40 to 50%, with scrap taking the place of imports to top up stock levels, which have barely moved in the last few months, across all Indian States.

India was importing 50 tonnes a month previously, which gives us an indication of the level of scrap sales. Imports are zero in the last three months. Indians are now selling! So knock 150 tonnes off last year’s levels of imports for the second half of the year, to date.

It could be that India continues to rely on scrap sales for the next 2 – 3 months, but after that going forward to April / May, would Farmers and Fathers with daughters wanting a gold dowry, enter the market as buyers at the high levels? That remains a possibility. Impatient daughters and wives [with raised eyebrows] won’t wait and don’t care about prices. Indeed the higher the price the better the dowry?

The question is at what price will Indians begin to dishoard? Forget the $ price, they don’t look at $500, they look at Rs 7,500 and rising up Rs 1,500 in three months. Bear in mind that they get used to a price and then they come to believe it will hold, but this takes time, but how long? The answer lies in the gold price action.

· ‘Spiking’ will precipitate large volumes of dishoarding, but will that be at Rs 8,000 or more?

· A steady consolidation followed by mild, but consolidating, appreciation will discourage dishoarding.

· Short “Spikes” with pullbacks to a previously established ‘floor’ will possibly attract Indian physical buyers.

If the rest of the gold market keeps the gold price high and rising dishoarding will come out and Indians have 20,000 tonnes of gold hoarded. But they love gold. They will only dishoard if they believe the gold price is too high and going to come down. If they believe it is high but going to stay there, or go higher, they may well accept the fact and buy. They just don’t want to be caught by dropping prices, when they can profit or buy back lower down. They are in a mental whirl at the moment and perhaps struggling with the price more than any other sector of the market!

So the next question, after they have dishoarded, at what price [after it has made a ‘floor’] will they return to the market. After all, the only reason they will dishoard is to buy back at a lower price.

We are certain of one fact and that is Indians don’t stop buying gold, they simply postpone their purchases until the price is right!

Chinese Gold Prices

Chinese consumers keep buying, despite the rising, exorbitant, retail price of the gold in a market where the premium is way above the international price.

In Nanning, the capital city of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, gold price has jumped to 176 Yuan or 22 US$ per gram [U.S.$709 per ounce], this is 40% higher than the $ price in London. In Shanghai, the gold price is 157 Yuan per gram [U.S.$632.52 per ounce], 25.25% higher than the U.S.$ gold price.

Nothing could better illustrate why the Chinese gold market is still in its infancy and will remain so until the gold distribution network in China is considerably better developed, so dealers cannot get away with such mark-ups. Should this distribution network develop, not only will the premium on the retail price of gold drop, but the potential volumes that the Chinese market could take, would absorb any amount of dishoarding from India where there is a superbly developed distribution network.

What an opportunity, if the authorities permit such a development? Imagine the arbitrage opportunity there now? Forget any potential revaluation of the Yuan having a negative impact on the Yuan gold price. The development of the Chinese distribution network, will, of itself lower the premium but raise the international gold price as the potential increase in sales, draws in the gold from global markets!

This is where the bullion banks should be focussing their efforts.

On January 22, 2001, two days after George W. Bush was inaugurated as President of the United States, the price of gold was $265.90 an ounce. Last week the gold price broke through the $500 dollars an ounce level; that means the dollar has been devalued in terms of gold by almost 50 per cent in the four years and ten months of this presidency.

That does not reflect well on Gordon Brown, who as Chancellor sold a large part of Britain’s gold reserve at a price that was way below the present level. It reflects even worse on President Bush. He is ultimately responsible for the management of the dollar. It has halved its gold value on his watch.

The rise in the gold price does not come as a surprise. Many commentators, including myself, had forecast that gold would rise to these levels. My forecast was that gold would reach $500, and when it broke through $500 would move on towards $1,000 an ounce. It would now require a radical change in US financial policy to stabilise the dollar; I do not think such a change is at all likely. So far, President Bush has been very reliable as an agent of dollar devaluation.

There are technical reasons, both on the supply and demand side, that make it probable that the gold price will continue to rise. Yet it was not these technical market reasons that led some of us to forecast the higher price, but the underlying weakness of the financial policy of the United States.

Alan Greenspan, the retiring Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, deserves his own considerable share of responsibility, all the more so because he saw the risks of combining large budget deficits with growing trade deficits and loose monetary conditions. That is a classic recipe for depreciating a currency. From time to time Alan Greenspan has sounded a warning; he has been willing to blow the whistle, but he has never been willing to pull on the brakes.

Last week, he made his farewell speech to the G7 finance ministers in London, and gave another belated warning. “If the pernicious drift towards fiscal instability in the United States and elsewhere is not arrested, and is compounded by a protectionist reversal of globalisation, the adjustment process could be quite painful for the world economy.”

The phrase “pernicious drift towards fiscal instability” is an amazing statement of any chairman of the Fed about any president, all the more extraordinary when it comes from as cautious a man as Alan Greenspan about a President whom he still serves. Incidentally, it applies just as much to Gordon Brown as to George Bush. “And elsewhere” refers to the “pernicious drift” in UK policy.

No doubt the fall of the dollar could have been matched by a rise in the euro; it is possible for people to switch between currencies, rather than into gold. But the euro itself is now a suspect currency. Many people doubt whether it will be possible for Italy to remain inside the euro straitjacket. Gold is better than the dollar, and better than the euro as well.

The rise in the gold price is a natural consequence of the inflationary fiscal and monetary policies of the United States. That has produced a very widespread inflation in the value of real assets, an inflation that is apparent in the global housing market, most of all in the British and American housing markets.

Gold is a natural alternative investment for the Asian countries, particularly China, India and Japan. These countries have a stronger tradition of investing in gold; their economies are growing much faster than those of the West. They already have more dollars than they really want. It has been probable for a long time that they would increasingly invest their surplus dollars in buying gold. That must make sense for them. Now there is far more private wealth in China and some of that is being invested in gold. Central banks may have a reason for supporting the dollar. Asian billionaires want profits.

One can go back to the basic logic of exchange markets, to Irving Fisher’s equation of exchange, or to Mademoiselle Zélie’s experience in Polynesia with coconuts. The US has created too many dollars; the twin US deficits are pumping out more of them all the time.

The wise virgins still have gold, but the foolish virgins, like our own Chancellor, sold most of it years ago. The age-old discipline of supply and demand leaves the dollar with only one way to go. Gold will continue to rise in value so long as the United States is at war, the US budget is in deficit, the US trade account is in deficit and George Bush is in the White House. You can bet 5,000 coconuts on that.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,1052-1904459,00.html

"The wise virgins still have gold, but the foolish virgins, like our own Chancellor, sold most of it years ago"

[Blockierte Grafik: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f7/ThreeFoolishVirginsMagdeburg.jpg/473px-ThreeFoolishVirginsMagdeburg.jpg]

Er sieht Gold auf 12 Monats Sicht bei 600$

Heute Morgen auf Bloomberg, T.Denin Rohstoffexperte der DB.
Begründungen: Steigende Nachfrage (Indien +47%,China, Schmuckindustrie), nachlassende Produktion (vorallem Südaf, Problematik des starken Rand, viele Minen mußten schließen).

Silber bei 10$ auf 12 Monats Sicht, solange keine signifikanten Verkäufe bekanntgegeben werden (Zentralbank Russland + China).

"...„Gold gilt als Absicherung gegen Inflation, und Öl ist der wichtigste Treiber der Teuerung“..."

Quelle:
http://www.handelsblatt.de/psh…hbi/sfn/buildhbi/cn/GoArt!200007,203855,1000368/SH/0/depot/0/index.html

Nicht gerade erfreulich ist die Entwicklung der PM Aktien im Vergleich zu den PM-Preisen in den letzten Tagen.
Bei den folgenden Gedanken, die zum Potential von PM Stocks gemacht wurden, musste ich Schmunzeln:

Some of the Jrs may have gold but it costs them 450 to get an ounce out of the ground. Well we will say the price of gold is 500 so they are making 50 an ounce. You take another miner that is able to produce at say 250 an ounce so they are making 250 on every ounce. This will be reflected in the current stock price.

Now lets say the price of gold increases to 550 an ounce. The miner with the cost of 450 sees profits double while the miner with the 250 costs will only see profits gain by 20%

Sometimes you will get your biggest gains in the stocks that have high costs.

Hat doch was, oder nicht?

Bei Minen, Juniors und Explorer bin ich (noch lange) ein blindes Huhn, aber zu dem Ergebniss von dem engl. Beitrag reicht es trotz Blindheit nicht

Silber über 8,70 und Gold bei 509!
da bin ich aber in guter Verfassung

Es geht so schnell, man muß schon 2 mal hinsehn ob nun 7,80 oder 8,70 oder was demnächst noch

Was macht bloß der Goldy ?
Man hört garnichts mehr von Ihm

bin doch da

ich lass es laufen und stelle mich nich gegen den markt und ich denke das wir den kampf um die 500 noch nicht als gewonnen abhacken können vielleicht beginnt er ja erstnoch

aber sag mal solltest du nich nikolaus heißen wäre doch angebrachter oder

Monday, December 05, 2005
UNPREDICTABLE MARKET WILL TURN..SMALL PART OF THIS WEEK..

Dear Visitor's Here is small part from this week newsletter.

Dear Members,
A very important time has come when each and every member should have a clear picture concerning rising metal prices as well as currencies. Today I shall reveal an important secret in regard to the future trend in metals. There are a few important secrets which I don’t normally divulge due to my obligation to astrology, but I am making an exception since time has come for my members to out-manoeuvre all concealed trends of the market. It will be my joy to see members getting huge returns and securing their money and their clients’ money as well. When nature favours you with profit, always remember to share with those who are in need.
...
THE MASTER KEY IS USUALLY SMALL; MY KEY FOR NEXT YEAR IS THEREFORE NOT LONG.

1.
2.
3.

I SHALL WRITE IN MORE DETAIL [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.smiliemania.de/smilie132/00000285.gif] ONCE WE APPROACH THAT PERIOD. I URGE THAT ONE PLAYS WITH OPTIONS (CALL/PUT) VERY INTELLIGENTLY. DO NOT TAKE BIG RISKS AT THE INITIAL STAGES. YOU CAN GO FOR THE BIG KILL ONCE YOU ESTABLISH THAT YOUR MONEY IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE.

...

Mahendras Masterkey ist tatsächlich ungewöhnlich kurz!!

Gold:
SHORT TERM –.........

MEDIUM TERM (TWO TO SIX MONTHS) – ......

LONG TERM (9 MONTHS TO 2 YEARS) – BULL MARKET [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.smiliemania.de/smilie132/00000451.gif]

Ups, war schon gepostet. Sorry Edel.

I will increase my newsletters by 40% next month hat er noch vergessen.