Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    @ spieler


    Interessant, ich habe genau die gleichen Beobachtungen mit Malik gemacht. Ich habe sie anfangs (es war schon vor etwa 1.5 Jahren) noch interessiert gelesen - bei vielem war ich gleicher Meinung, nicht aber beim Gold. Ich wartete dann lange, dass er seine Prognosen revidierte, als Gold über 360 USD auf Wochenschluss stand, wie er das versprochen hatte. Scheinbar hat er es noch immer nicht gemacht... Seither halte ich nicht mehr allzu viel von ihm und lese auch seine Kommentare kaum noch(er hat übrigens auch das ganze Bärenmarktrallye bei den Aktien im Jahre 2003 verpasst).


    P.S. Die Elliot-Wave-Propheten sagen ja auch schon die ganze zeit Goldpreise von 200 USD voraus... :P

    Muß zu Malik allerdings sagen/richtigstellen: Arrogant ist er auf keinen
    Fall - ich habe ihm vor über einem Jahr einmal eine längere Email
    geschrieben, hat nicht lange gedauert, da hatte ich von ihm persönlich eine sehr sehr lange, ausführliche Email, in der er auf alle Fragen,
    Anmerkungen usw,. von mir einging. Sehr freundlich, sachlich, emotionslos und ehrlich -Hut ab, habe ich damals gedacht.


    Allerdings meine ich aus dem Newsletter nur eine bislang nicht
    gekannte Emotionalität herauszuhören... Kann natürlich daran liege
    n, daß er eben wirklich lange Zeit absolut falsch lag...
    Ich empfinde es ähnlich, wie den Newsletter, den Weigl ausgerechnet beim Top von Silber losgeschickt hat...


    Spieler

    "So wie die Freiheit bleibt Gold nie lange dort, wo es nicht geschätzt wird."
    J.S.Morill in einer Rede vor dem U.S.-Senat am 28.01.1878.

    Ja, bei den Elliot-Jüngern gibt es Anhänger verschiedener Zählweisen. Deswegen kommen sie teilweise auf völllig verschiedene Resultate (weswegen ich bis jetzt nicht viel damit anfangen konnte).

    @ thom
    das ist das gleiche wie mit der Chart-Technik!


    aber nur weil es soviele Möglichkeiten gibt, heisst das noch lange nicht dass irgendwo eine "Zählerei" bzw "Charterei" nicht DIE richtige ist.


    und meiner Meinung nach: Es gibt sie - die richtige Chartanalyse anhand von historischen Marktdaten. nur welche ist es ?


    denn:  "Die menschliche Natur ändert sich in ihren Grundzügen nie!" (Flips)

    Habe gerade den Newsletter vom "Smart-Investor" gelesen. Sie sind langfristig für die Edelmetallpreise sehr positiv eingestellt, u.a. aufgrund der hier oft diskutierten und wohlbekannten Gründe.
    Allerdings gehen sie davon aus, dass mit den Kursverlusten im April eine längerdauernde Konsolidierung anfing, im Rahmen welcher man durchaus noch tiefere Kurse sehen werde. Sie empfehlen, mit Nachkäufen etwas zuzuwarten. Gleichzeitig gehen sie von sinkenden Aktienmärkten in den nächsten Monaten aus.
    Dies scheint widersprüchlich, ganz ausschliessen kann man es aber nicht, da die Goldpreise im letzten Jahr auch über lange Strecken mit den Aktienmärkten korrelierten.
    Ich hoffe aber, dass sie diesmal irren... :(


    Hier der Link:
    http://www.smartinvestor.de/news/smartinvestor/index.hbs

    haste die letzte print-version gelesen?


    interview mit Ian Gordan & was über Kondratieff! sehr nett!


    ---> Deflation jetzt, danach Inflation


    "Gold wird beidesmal steigen" ---> Der SmartInvestor und noch so manche denken, dass Gold in der Deflation nicht steigen kann.


    Alle gehen derzeit eher erstmal von deflationären tendenzen aus.


    "So what says Gold-Zac"

    The Gold-Price is Irrelevant
    What really matters is not the fiat-price of gold,
    but the gold price of fiat.


    by Alex Wallenwein, Editor & Publisher
    The Euro vs Dollar Currency War Monitor
    April 18, 2004


    http://www.financialsense.com/…wallenwein/2004/0428.html


    Gold is always valuable because it combines in itself many use-functions. Nothing else in this world can replace it, and therefore nothing can ultimately displace it. Gold is independent of all of the ups and downs, the fads, the booms and the busts of the collective human psyche. It's just there. And it's always useful.


    Paper-money, on the other hand, is extremely dependent.


    It is dependent on the "faith" of the masses who use it that it will buy about the same thing tomorrow as it buys today. It is therefore dependent on the continued ability of those who issue it to instill that faith in the masses.


    On top of that, it's use-function is rather limited. When it comes right down to it, fiat has only one intended use-function (money), and a couple of unintended ones (heating fuel, wallpaper, and bathroom tissue).


    Needless to say that it fulfills neither of these (intended or unintended) use-functions very well. Gold, on the other hand, fulfills virtually all of its use-functions simultaneously in a most admirable way.


    There is only one problem: People are gullible.


    We are only too easily fooled about what has true value and what doesn't. And our experience with paper money proves that point beyond a reasonable doubt.


    But the thirty year-plus success story of pure fiat money - against all expectations, and defiance of economic doctrines telling us of the calamities that befall any society that favors fiat money - have introduced a dynamic into the theory of money that simply cannot be denied, and that new dynamic is that.


    People Demand Fiat


    There's just no two ways about it.


    Since any thing's value always depends on its usefulness to us as individuals and groups, and since fiat is in such demand, there must be at least one of the three functions of money (as a unit of account, medium of exchange, and store of value) that fiat performs exceedingly well, or the demand simply would not exist.


    Certainly, deception, propaganda, force, and manipulation - and our willingness to be deceived as long as we see an advantage in it (or as long as it's convenient for us) - have all plaid a role in the establishment of fiat as "the" medium of exchange used by all people around the entire world. However, it would be dishonest to simply claim that these are the only elements that made fiat's long-term success possible.


    Beyond the fact that rulers prefer fiat because they can control its rate of issuance, there appears to be some function that fiat obviously fulfills better than gold or silver, or at least as well. That function is its dual function as a "unit of account " and as a "medium of exchange." In short, it is its function as "currency."


    It is here where those of us who advocate a full return to the use of gold as "money" need to take a step back from our acquired preferences and prejudices and realize that it was NOT just deception, propaganda, force, and manipulation that were responsible for the considerable perpetuation of fiat's use. We have to admit that people's demand for fiat to fulfill that function - the currency function - is, and always was - real.


    The deception, coercion, and manipulation came into the picture when our would-be rulers decided to make us believe that fiat was also a good (or even an adequate) store of value. They fed us the flat-out lie that fiat can hold its value at least as well as gold or other real things can.


    The illusion they have thus created and nurtured is now wearing extremely thin. We are now witnessing a transition from the old system of reinforcing that official lie by all means necessary - to a system that acknowledges the "separate but equal" use-functions of money - and allows the best medium to serve each.


    Fiat will be the currency of choice according too its best-use function. Gold and precious metals will be the store of value of choice according to the function it fulfills best.


    Make no mistake: gold and PMs will still be "money." That means, it will still have all three of the functions of money, but it will not primarily be used as a currency.


    Fiat, on the other hand, will still trade as "money" as well - but it will no longer be regarded (or used) as an adequate, long-term store of value.


    The idea is to completely take the social and political controls off each medium, and let the free market settle the argument as to which is worth how much in terms of the other. I'm talking about the free physical market for gold, not the contrived paper-contract market that we are supposed to believe sets the "price" for gold today.


    In the past, this was not possible because the fiat-dollar reserve system had a lock on the world's currency flows, and its acceptability world-wide depended so strongly on the illusion that it was also a good or adequate store of value.


    After 1971, when the memory of gold's use as money was still fresh in people's minds, and when a return to a gold standard was at least still possible in the minds of many, this white-washed dirty lie was a "necessity" of sorts. But today, this lie has outlived its usefulness.


    After more than thirty years, the continued usefulness of fiat as currency can no longer be disputed. At the same time, it is become clearer and clearer in the minds of many (far ahead of whom are certain world financial architects) that the store-of-value function of fiat is but a sad joke.


    These architects are now trying to devise an international monetary system that attempts to divorce gold from its primary currency-function, while at the same time annulling fiat's sham marriage with the "store of value" function.


    They surely got their work cut out for them, but the idea itself is rather intriguing.


    Just imagine a world where fiat and gold money peacefully coexist - not in a death struggle with each other, but in a symbiotic relationship where the price of one in terms of the other is determined purely by free-market principles.


    A free-market libertarian or classical liberal's utopia? Maybe, but an interesting thought nevertheless. The only question is: how do you get there?


    Well, in one sense it's already happening.


    The dollar is currently being dismantled as the one major obstacle to achieving that state of things. The creation, launch, and successful penetration by the euro of the world's major currency markets (and uses) was the first step to that end.


    Despite the euro zone's persistent inability to get off its socialist leaning, over-regulated duff economically, and all the challenges attendant to a new, designer-made economic, political, and currency union, with enlargement, budget deficit, movement of labor, and a host of other problems to boot, the euro is the only possible challenger to the dollar - and this shows in how other nations cooperate when the going gets a little too tough for the new toddler currency.


    Case-in-point: Japan's sudden reversal of its long-standing "buy the dollar at all cost" policy.


    That reversal cannot be satisfactorily explained by its alleged economic recovery alone. In January and February of this year the BOJ spent almost as much as during the entire year of 2003 to buy the yen down, implying that there was a powerful need to do so - and then in March of this year they are supposed to be doing so well all of a sudden that they no longer need to keep their currency low? Come on!


    Behind the scenes of mainstream financial press reporting there is large consensus in the world today that the US and its dollar must be "sidelined" as fast as possible if the world is to be prevented from following the deficit-plagued dollar to its ultimate demise. In order to do this, guaranteeing the survival of the only feasible challenger in the world reserve and trade currency arena is therefore number one on their agenda.


    Okay, fine. So, what does all of that have to do with the title of this essay?


    What needs to be realized is that gold is not what is being threatened in this scenario. The dollar is the one that just got added to the "endangered species" list. The dollar, and by its proxy all fiat - is what is being questioned and challenged. It is fiat's "price" or ability to function as an acceptable store of value that are under scrutiny.


    The kicker is that the non-dollar currencies do not really rely on the store-of-value illusion for their viability. These currencies have never really been in a fight-to-the-death scenario with the price of gold as the dollar has. It was the dollar that carried the banner after 1971 of gold's function as a value-anchor, and tried to replace gold in that function. The other currencies just sort of followed along, like the eyes of spectators at a ping-pong or tennis match, following the ball as it bounces back and forth from one court to the other, and back.


    For the dollar to fulfill the function to which it arrogated itself, winning this battle with gold was a life-and-death matter. But gold cannot be defeated long term - and the "spectators" of this (mis)match have recognized that fact. It's like a one-legged Joe Schmoe playing Andre Agassi at Wimbledon.


    Having observed how poorly the dollar has performed in the store-of-value arena, the other currency-issuers thought to themselves: "Why should we bet our very existence on the supposed ability of Joe Schmoe (the dollar) to do what he obviously can never do? Just let Agassi win this match. We're not in there, fighting for our lives. We can live with Agassi being the winner."


    And so the new concept of gold for saving wealth and fiat for buying wealth was born.


    The "gold price" isn't really the price of gold at all! Instead, it is the price that paper-contracts on gold can fetch in a 99% cash-settlement driven market.


    As time goes on, the irrelevance of that paper-trading process to the true use-value of gold as a primary savings asset will reveal itself. That process is inevitable. It makes no difference to the real price of gold "what Greenspan says", or whether the Fed raises its symbolic overnight lending rate, or whatever.


    When gold investors and the general public start seeing that, the gold/fiat equation will balance itself, and gold will naturally come out way on top. The only question is the time line. Will we as individuals live to see the day?


    Let me put it this way: the sun of that new day has already come up over the horizon, and the cockroaches are scampering into the nearest unlit corner. It's just that we are impatient. We want to see it all happen NOW. Meanwhile we are transfixed by the smoke and mirrors of the cockroaches' "gold price" sideshow.


    We need to look past the smoke and the mirrors. That's when days like today (where the dollar jumps a bit because of some lonely package at an airline counter in London, and where the contrived paper-gold price falls down a few stairs in the process) really don't matter all that much. Let the cockroaches play some more. The "Orkin man" is ringing the doorbell already.


    "Yes, Sir. Step right into the kitchen, please ..."


    The ridiculous "gold price" side-show is irrelevant. There should be "fiat price-charts," not gold price-charts. There should be news-blurbs on the price of fiat, as in: "And now the economic news of the day: The dollar has been routed. A single unit of this almost obsolete currency is now worth only 0.000007 grams of gold."


    The paper-driven "price of gold" is irrelevant. Gold will always be there, and since it is indestructible and always useful, it will always have value in the eyes of its beholders. With fiat, especially of the dollar-variety, that is not the case anymore. Even the paper-markets are beginning to recognize that. Witness the current volatility of the dollar.


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/wallenwein/images/gotgold.gif]

    The Road to Ruin
    Fiat & Credit - The Anglo-American Nemesis


    29 April 2004
    by Nigel H Maund


    Introduction


    Numerous writers on various internet sites, where complete freedom of speech still exists, including notably: Richard Russell, Jim Puplava, Doug Noland, Marshall Auerbach, James Turk, Robert Gordon, Antal Fekete, Bill Bonner and Clive Maund, to name but a few, have attempted to alert people to the dangers and consequences inherent in today's financial markets. However, the Fed has skillfully succeeded in wrong footing all these experienced writers, and a great air of complacency now exists amongst the general public that the fantasy land of ever rising equities, bond and real estate markets will continue, ad infinitum, In this wonderland, the foregoing will rise forever into the glittering and rosy horizon of endless, and rapid, economic growth. What is more, one's house is actually one's own private bank, to be dipped into as and when the need arises. No need for those nasty credit checks and grim faced bankers after all!! He He! Better still, as houses rocket towards the outer planets, where the effects of gravity diminish, maybe one's house will be worth an unimaginable, galactic scale, sum in years to come. What a thought!


    (...)


    mehr und interessante charts:
    http://205.232.90.194/editorials/maund/maund042904.html

    The MOTHER Of The MOTHER


    By Theodore Butler
    April 27, 2004


    (The following essay was written by silver analyst Theodore Butler. Investment Rarities does not necessarily endorse these views, which may or may not prove to be correct.)


    Like a guillotine, the commercial dealers beheaded the tech fund longs in COMEX gold and silver over the past week and a half. It was the tightly disciplined wolf pack's finest moments, thereby making it one of the free markets' worst. Make no mistake, there is a war for money and financial survival in the metals that includes both yours and the manipulators'. They won a key battle, but in winning that battle, they may have lost the war.


    In gold, the dealer wolf pack lured the tech funds into the long side of COMEX gold futures to the tune of some 100,000 contracts, and then engineered the funds into dumping those contracts at roughly a $20/oz loss. By trading as one coordinated and non-competitive unit, the wolf pack functioned as the ultimate market maker. (The problem is that commodity law prohibits market making in the COMEX's open outcry and auction market system.) In COMEX gold futures alone (not including options or off-COMEX transactions), the dealers made, and the tech funds lost, some $200 million. That's a pretty big payday, even for the cohesive and illegal market-making manipulators.


    Anyone who doesn't see the back and forth between the mindless computer-driven tech funds and the scheming dealer as revealed in the Commitment of Trader reports isn't paying attention. This all can be seen in the public record. And speaking of the public record, let me be clear that I have no sympathy over tech fund losses (or the dealer wolf pack's gains). My concern is solely about the conversion of what should be a free market into a private bucket shop, where massive paper trading swamps any and all real world developments.


    Unlike gold, where the obvious intent was to take as much money from the tech funds in as short a time frame as possible (and influence silver), the wolf pack's goal in smashing the silver price was not short term profits. Since the beginning of this year, this is the second time that the dealers have hoodwinked the tech funds in gold, letting them get long big, then yanking the rug out from under them, and reaping hundreds of millions in profits. In silver, there was a different pattern. The tech funds were basically long big in silver (with the dealers short) and that position structure was maintained until the past 2 weeks. In other words, the tech funds were fully positioned on the long side of COMEX silver at $6, in January, and held that position up through $8 on the upside, only now liquidating, on the return trip down to $6. The dealers held the reciprocal short position throughout these past few months, covering just in the past two weeks. What does this tell us?


    The wholesale tech fund silver long position liquidation has not been at an actual loss to them, as it has been in gold, twice since January 1. (This week’s COT will tell us more.) True, the $2+ price crash in silver was a horrendous drop in open profits for the funds and other leveraged speculators, but because the funds got in so early, they are basically liquidating on a break-even basis. Don't get me wrong, the profits the funds gave up in silver were awesome - some $300+ million in COMEX silver futures alone - but they still represent a loss of profits, not actual losses from their original entry points.


    Conversely, the dealers didn't actually book profits in covering their short positions in this huge silver price drop, as they did in gold. But they did recoup hundreds of millions of dollars of open losses on their silver short positions. Certainly, for anyone who has ever held a big losing open position, breaking even can be a huge victory. Add in the big recent profits from gold trading, and the dealer wolf pack seems way ahead. They should be declared the victors in these recent metals battles.


    The war the dealers are going to lose, however, is the war to continue their manipulation of the silver market. Why do I say this? Precisely because of the way the dealers behaved the past few months. It was not technical fund and speculator buying that drove silver to the recent highs, contrary to popular opinion. The funds were fully positioned on the long side from the beginning of January. It wasn't a case of these funds piling onto the long side of silver that pushed prices up. It was something else. Perhaps it was stress in the industrial wholesale market, or maybe one key dealer broke from the pack, or perhaps it was behind the scenes pressure from the regulators. But it definitely wasn't the normal fund buying on the long side.


    The dealers were out big money on their silver short position at the highs. Very big money. So much money, that they had to engineer something special. The main "something special" that the dealers engineered in silver was a dramatic and historic sell-off - more than 25% in less than two weeks. They did this by agreeing among themselves to collectively pull all their bids at times, forcing the liquidating funds and other leveraged speculators to sell into a void. The proof to my statement - on the way up, we didn't have one 25 cent COMEX gap up opening in the six month $3.50 rally, yet we had four 25 cent, or greater, COMEX gap downs in the week and a half $2+ smash. That’s with no real silver world news. That price pattern is not possible without collusion among the dealers. Period.


    The important point is that the dealers were stuck on the short side of silver big time, and they had to do something drastic to get out. Which they did with the dramatic price crash. But that's exactly why I think they're about to lose the silver manipulation war. Having been staring into the abyss at the recent highs in silver, the dealers are not likely to put their heads back into the lion's mouth, and reshort silver in a big way again. I think they aren’t interested in the risk, nor the potential regulatory attention of being that short in silver, ever again.


    These dealers aren't stupid. They know they never had, nor could get, the real silver to back up their massive naked shorts. They know people are wising up to their manipulative silver tricks. They know there are now more than 3200 names on the silver petition to Eliot Spitzer. They know that hundreds of people have written to the CFTC, and neither the CFTC, nor anyone else has been able to provide answers to simple questions about the silver manipulation. Most importantly, the dealers know how tight the silver physical market has become with recent delivery demands.


    In order to get to the mother of the mother of all buying opportunities in silver, it was mandatory to have the market crash first in order to flush out as many funds and other leveraged speculators as possible. This forced liquidation, in fact, is precisely what enables the dealers to cover as many of their silver shorts as possible. But that crash and forced liquidation has come and gone and no longer represents a potential bone-jarring sell-off. It does not appear likely that the funds, having liquidated the majority of their long positions, will now go short and it looks like we're very much back to dimes to the downside, dollars to the upside.


    It is not just the suddenly more favorable risk/reward ratio, created by the sharp sell-off, that leads me to suggest that this is the mother of silver buy points. I believe that the dealer wolf pack does not want to endanger their very survival, by going short big in silver on the next turn to the upside. If so, we could be on the threshold of something I have long contemplated (and written about.) That something is a melt-up, caused by a wolf pack selling void, similar to, but much greater in magnitude than the coordinated wolf pack buying void we just witnessed to the downside. The wolf pack's recent near death experience at the recent highs surely made a big impression on them. I don't think they want to play this silver manipulation game any longer.


    Many have written to me, asking what it is that will prevent the dealer wolf pack from continuing the silver manipulation, by continuing to short on future silver rallies? My answer is two-fold. One, the dealers did not make money on their last short campaign in silver. They escaped with their financial lives. They had to pull out every trick in the book to break even. This was not lost on them, as they had to realize just how deep in the hole they were. This was very much different than any silver shorting campaign by the dealers in almost 20 years. More importantly, the about to emerge silver shortage, courtesy of the structural deficit, will eventually blow the shorting scam out of the water. The only question is when does physical silver trump the paper shorts. The dealers know how tight the industrial physical market has become, better than anyone. That’s part of their business. They know that demands for physical delivery will overpower a paper short position. Since they have been struggling, for more than a year, to progressively meet COMEX delivery demands, and now face extreme difficulty in meeting two particular Canadian delivery demands, the time for a sea change appears close at hand.


    But what if I'm wrong and the timing of the certain coming physical crunch is somewhat off into the future, and the dealers do sell short on the next rally? The great thing is that won't matter. Silver is still vastly undervalued, the risk is still dimes to the downside, and we'll still get a rally, albeit not the big one. What makes this buy point so attractive is the low risk, as the dealers will only sell, if they sell at all, on higher prices. But if I'm right, and the dealers don't sell, we will be adding dollars per ounce in the blink of an eye, and the mother of buy points will be a fleeting memory.


    I heard from heavily leveraged speculators, who were damaged and shell-shocked by the crash. Let me offer some words of a constructive nature. Leverage has a place only if you have the emotional stamina and risk tolerance for such. Especially at times like now, when so much risk has been removed from the market, by the price drop and tech fund exit, leverage might be in order for those so inclined.


    Leverage, necessarily, involves borrowing of some type. You borrow money to get a bigger bang for your investment buck. My suggestion - separate the borrowing function from the buying function of a futures contract, and you will immunize yourself from the manipulative tricks of the dealer wolf-pack. Specifically, buy real silver from your dealer, or take delivery on futures contracts, and borrow from your bank to the extent you wish to leverage. Obviously, you must be able to service the debt comfortably. This way, you will own the silver outright and have a separate debt which you are responsible for, but is not directly related to the silver. Don't borrow from the same place you buy and hold your silver. Ever.


    By buying from your dealer, and separating the borrowing function, here's what you'll accomplish. For one, you will have no Dec 31 mark to market tax liability. Two, you will be holding precisely the form of silver that will come to be in greatest demand, real silver. The coming move to backwardation, where cash silver trades for more than futures contracts, will benefit real silver holders the most. Three, you will protect yourself from arbitrary exchange rule changes limiting delivery or increasing margins. Four, you will be less likely to over-margin yourself, as profits will be harder to pull out as prices rise. The big problem with futures is that, when it's going your way, the gains are intoxicating. You pile up money so fast, and it's so easy to remove the money or spend it buying more contracts, you inevitably get in too deep, with a much bigger position than originally planned. It is at that point, invariably, when the sharp sell-offs occur, and positions must be jettisoned. But doing it the way I suggest will prevent you from removing profits easily, or buying more. Stay away from pure futures and pyramiding them as silver climbs.


    No, I am not encouraging folks to speculate in silver. I am offering this suggestion only for those who are going to speculate in futures or leveraged contracts anyway. If you're going to do it, at least do it right, or where you improve your chances for success. I was surprised to hear from folks who were speculating and got hurt (lost their leveraged positions), since I never publicly suggested to do so. I don't want to see people get hurt in the future. My advice for the vast majority of folks is to buy real silver on a cash and carry basis. It is your greatest insurance against volatility and manipulation. And do it soon, before the best buy point in history becomes history.


    http://www.investmentrarities.com/04-27-04.html

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.faz.net/IN/INtemplates/faznet/img/head/h2_logo_desk.gif]


    Rohstoffe
    Der Goldchart hat seinen Glanz verloren


    29. April 2004 Die Hausse bei den Rohstoffpreisen hat in den vergangenen Wochen einen gewaltigen Dämpfer erhalten. Rohstoffe wie Nickel, Kupfer, Platin & Co., deren Preise lange Zeit nur noch den Weg nach oben kannten, knicken nämlich plötzlich ein.


    Viele der Anleger, die erst kürzlich auf den Zug aufgesprungen sind, sitzen dadurch statt auf den erhofften sagenhaften Gewinnen bereits auf stattlichen Verlusten. Und wer dabei auf Rohstoff-Aktien gesetzt hat, steht in den meisten Fällen sogar noch etwas schlechter da.


    Doppeltop beim Goldpreis eine große Gefahr


    Sehr gut verdeutlichen läßt sich das Ausmaß der Korrektur auch anhand der Edelmetalle. So ist der Silberpreis von einem Hoch bei 8,27 Dollar je Feinunze seit 5. April bis auf 5,55 Dollar eingebrochen.


    Richtig viel Porzellan ist charttechnisch gesehen inzwischen auch beim Gold zerschlagen worden. Nachdem hier Anfang April mit 427,25 Dollar je Feinunze der höchste Stand seit September 1998 erklommen wurde, mußten hier am Donnerstag zum Fixing in London nur noch Preise von 382,75 Dollar gezahlt werden.


    Durch die Unterschreitung der wichtigen Unterstützungszone bei 390 Dollar hat der Goldchart nun endgültig ein Doppeltop ausgebildet. Charttechnisch betrachtet ist das ein sehr bedrohliches Signal, da es als Vorbote für noch stärkere Verluste interpretiert werden müßte. Rein rechnerisch ergibt sich daraus ein erstes Abwärtspotential bis in den Bereich von 350 Dollar.


    Plötzlich werden die Risiken höher bewertet als die Chancen


    Die Dynamik der jüngsten Abwärtsbewegung spricht dabei jedenfalls dafür, daß sich der Goldpreis zumindest nicht gleich kurzfristig wieder spürbar erholen kann. Händler berichten jedenfalls von einem regelrechten Ausverkauf und einem spürbaren Stimmungsumschwung unter den Anlegern zu Lasten des Edelmetalls.


    Fundamental wird zur Begründung für den Preisrückgang auf die Angst vor einer künftig deutlich langsamer wachsenden chinesischen Wirtschaft verwiesen, nachdem die dortigen Regierung seit Wochen über die Notwendigkeit spricht, die konjunkturellen Überhitzungserscheinungen bekämpfen zu müssen. Dies ist für die Rohstoffe deshalb verhängnisvoll, weil der zuvor gesehene starke Preisanstieg stets mit der über Jahre hinweg stark erwarteten Nachfrage aus China begründet wurde.


    Als Belastungsfaktor erweist sich zudem der wieder steigende Dollar, da dies den Kauf von Gold aus Sicht von Abnehmern außerhalb des Dollar-Raumes teurer macht. Hinzu kommt die Furcht vor steigenden Zinsen in Amerika, da dies die unverzinsten Anlagen in Gold relativ betrachtet in einem ungünstigeren Licht erscheinen läßt.


    Vor Neupositionierungen erst ein Ende der Korrektur abwarten


    Objektiv betrachtet scheinen die Akteure an den Rohstoffmärkten derzeit in beide Richtungen zu Übertreibungen zu neigen. So wie es vorher überzogen war, nur die Chancen zu preisen, dürfte es jetzt falsch sein, die Zukunft nur schwarz zu sehen. Die Nachfrage aus China dürfte jedenfalls nicht abrupt abbrechen, sondern dazu beitragen, die Verhältnisse an den Rohstoffmärkten langfristig nachhaltig zu verändern. Einige Händler halten das gegenwärtige Preisniveau nach der jüngsten Korrektur bei einigen Rohstoffen wie etwa dem Gold vermutlich auch deshalb bereits jetzt wieder für eine gute Einstiegsgelegenheit.


    Wer auf Nummer sicher gehen will, wartet am besten aber erst einmal ab, auf welchen Niveau der Goldpreis den Versuch einer Bodenbildung angeht. Wenn die jetzt zu beobachtenden Verkäufe von spekulativen Marktteilnehmern wie Hedge Fonds verarbeitet sind, wird sich zeigen müssen, mit welchem Preisniveau sich das gegenwärtige fundamentale Umfeld tatsächlich verträgt. Doch bis sich dabei Klarheit herauskristallisiert, dürfte noch einige Zeit vergehen, so daß aktuell kein akuter Handlungsbedarf besteht.

    Na denn, wenn nach 4 Wochen Rückwärtsgang die FAZ auf die Risiken einer Goldanlage hinweißt, kann es ja nur noch aufwärts gehen. Wenn von den Mainstreams gewarnt wird, dann ist das Schlimmste überstanden.



    ps, der Dollar ist auch weiterhin schwächer (1,1976 aktuell)

Schriftgröße:  A A A A A