Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Ab jetzt ist Vorsicht angesagt. Meine Kontraindikator (meine Schwester) hat jetzt KRs gekauft. Wenn auch nur auf mein Anraten hin.

Oder sie ist vielleicht langsam schon Insider und nicht mehr als Kontraindikator nutzbar.

Zitat

Original von Edel Man
Entwarnung !

2 meiner 3 Kinder, mit gesichertem Einkommen,
halten weiter überhaupt nichts von Edelmetallen.

Habe diesbezüglich jeden Apell aufgegeben.
Für mich hochsignifikant Gold/Silber bullisch!!

Grüsse

Alles anzeigen

Na Edel, das spricht dann doch wohl eher dafür, dass ich einen Kontraindikator weniger habe. Am Ende waren meine Ausführungen nur überzeugend. Aber es gibt ja noch genug andere Kontraindikatoren.

Es grüßt

ein Überzeugungstäter

Zitat

Original von Edel Man

2 meiner 3 Kinder, mit gesichertem Einkommen,
halten weiter überhaupt nichts von Edelmetallen.
Habe diesbezüglich jeden Apell aufgegeben.
Grüsse

Hi Edel

Wie heisst es nochmals, wer nicht hoeren will muss....
aufs Erbe verzichten.
Aber sonst hoeren sie schon auf dich, oder ?
Die denken sich vielleicht der Papa soll das mal machen fuer uns.
Spaeter wieder weg mit dem Gold.

Edel fliege du erster Klasse bevor es deine Erben tun.
Live is short, fly and enjoy while you can.
Ich habe schon so viele gesehen die haben sich abgerackert ein Haus zu bauen und sind dann vom Dachstuhl gefallen mit dem Ergebniss das sein Lebenswerk kurz danach verhoeckert wurde und das Geld verschleudert war in kurzer Zeit.
Viele waren nie im Urlaub, den benutzten sie um weiter am Haus zu bauen und Geld zu sparen.
Die es geschafft haben waren dann so krank das sie nicht mehr reisen konnten und kein Auslaendisches Essen/Klima mehr vertragen haben.
Sie kauften sich dann fuer die letzten paar Jahre einen Wohnzimmerschrank aus Deutscher Eiche den sie angafften und dann tot umfielen.
So dumm bin ich nicht !

Gnight, morgen ist wieder Kampftag in Amerika.

XEX

Zitat

Original von Edel Man
Tja ,ein komplexes Thema!Siehe hierzu:
http://www.goldseitenforum.de/thread.php...97134#post97134
Das spricht Bände.........

Ich hoffe doch Du meinst die Studie und nicht den Thread. Mich braucht man schon lange nicht mehr davon zu überzeugen!

Welche stellt die sicherste Anlagemöglichkeit dar? [...]

Etwas veraltet vom 21.Mai....

Ein Rueckblick mehr oder weniger.

Dear Members,

I am enjoying a spiritual time in Santa Barbara and meditating a lot. Last week metals showed signs that they are now in an indissoluble relationship with the dollar which we haven’t seen since the last sixteen months as gold was walking on its path with its own strength.

From this point if the dollar starts moving up, then it will be a short-term disaster for gold and metal stocks.

The other point is that while most economists and analysts are predicting inflation as commodities prices have been on the rise, I FEEL THAT IT IS NOT INFLATION, BUT SPECULATION. Many investors and fund managers have recently jumped into commodities trading (which is zero sum) to make money overnight. When there is a large crowd and planetary movements bring negativity, it pushes everyone onto the seller side. This is what happened last week and that was just a small trailer.

Last week grains (wheat and corn) acted very well; the dollar tried to rebound; oil moved in confusion without finding a proper path, while the stock market started falling, especially the Indian Market which crashed over 1000 for the first time in history (but this is just a begaining). The European market acted similarly. Sugar, coffee, cotton, lumber and orange juice remained down as predicted.

Before I begin this week’s predictions, I would like to share something very important with you:

As I watched the metals market in March, the price action showed me that they would go up in the short term. I did not want to be influenced by market trends, but to follow what I have followed since I was 12 years old, that is planetray movement (wave of nature). It was a painful time for me as thousands of investors came into the metals market from 2001 on my recommendation, but went out when it was a hot period due to my short term recommendations in 2006.

There was reason as I saw a scary fall in metals and I did not want my members to lose money in the event of such a drastic fall. That is now history and I have learned something out of it.

Like analysts, economists, chartists or others, I am an instrument with a theory of the market, and we all try to predict the market in our own way. My main path is planetary movements, including a sixth/psychic sense or intuition which gives the final shape to my prophecies.

It is now time to reveal this week:

PREDICTIONS FOR 22 TO 26 MAY

GOLD

Last week gold lost over ten percent from high and it looked like metal stocks wanted to flee from the battle. If this trend remains in the metals market, then I don’t know what prices metals will attain.

I don’t want to predict a downside price for gold but one thing is sure: for two months, it will not be a great period for gold.

This week Monday in weak trend, gold may try to move up but it will fail. Tuesday will have movement on both sides while Thursday/Friday it will rise.

Overall, this week will remain on the side and we may also see some buying. However, I don’t recommend holding buying position if you are buying during weakness. Booking profit will be the right advice.

SHORT TERM THIS WEEK – SIDE WAY BUT ON THE DOWNSIDE

MEDIUM TERM – WEAK TREND

LONG TERM – UPWARD TREND

SILVER/PLATINUM/COPPER/PALLADIUM

This week I see a small percentage rebound in all these metals though planetary movements show that they don’t look health and promising.

Medium term - Red metal (copper) has entered into a negative time frame and it could give up entire gains achieved in the last one year. Don’t buy if it falls, thinking that it will rise again. Also don’t start shorting on my recommendation because you all know how risky the commodity market is! Therefore those who believe in me can take a very small sell position or small put option in copper.

This week copper may try to gain from Wednesday but it will faill n few days as I see the red metal saying “I am giving up”.

Silver prices will try to move up for the first two days but fail. Monday and Tuesday are very volatile and Thursday it may to gain.

Platinum is trying to remain up till this month’s option expiry. However, this could be the final week for platinum on the rising side. A FALL IN PLATINUM WILL BE WORSE THAN COPPER/GOLD/SILVER OR PALLADIUM. Once you see a weak sign, start selling it.

Last week Palladium came down almost fifteen percent and on the low side it went down nearly twenty percent. History shows that when a weak trend comes in thinly traded commodities, the bull operators go bankrupt. In 1990 a Japanese firm tried to corner copper and initially, prices went up. However, they ended up with legal problems and finally went bankrupt. The same thing happened with Hunt brothers when they cornered silver in 1979/80. They eventually gained nothing even though silver went to $50 from $4.

Going up takes months or years while coming down takes just a few weeks to regain former levels: that is why I have been very cautious. Time has come for those who love the metal area to go for holidays for a few months since I know that they may be attracted by prices and be tempted to buy before the bottom out.

I will try to guide you once planetary movements give me the buying signal.

SHORT TERM TREND – THIS WEEK: SIDEWAY OR VOLATILE

MEDIUM TERM TREND – THREE MONTHS: WEAK

LONG TERM 6 MONTHS TO 2 YEARS: UP

STOCK MARKET

Last week finally confirmed that a historic bear market is starting in all stock exchanges in almost all countries. Countries like India and other Asian markets, the European and South American markets will crash. An important point is that they will remain in a bear trap for years. The USA Market will also move down, though not like the other markets.

In coming weeks or in the next one month, the Indian and all European markets could crash more than twenty percent.

This week markets will gain for two days out of five trading days. They will try to stabilize but fail. Don’t buy a single share in the Indian and European markets. Rising should be taken as a selling opportunity.

Look at the Middle East market, as the downward trend is not stopping at any point and Arab investors don’t know what to do. One of the prominent Arab Brokers (Handling a several billion dollar portfolio- only in the local market) stopped talking to me when last year in September I warned him about the risk factor of the rise of the UAE and Gulf or Middle-East market. I told him that a major downward trend could take place in 2006 and now he has disappeared BECAUSE all major Middle-East markets have crashed more than 150 percent.

Anyway, watch your stocks if you are trading Indian, Pakistani or other hot rising Asian and European markets.

Buy after a few months once metals and Uranium stock bottom out.

AS FAR AS I CAN SEE AT THIS STAGE, ALTERNATIVE ENERGY IS THE ONLY AREA WHERE YOU CAN INVEST FOR THE LONG TERM.

GO ON HOLIDAY OR RETIRE.

THEY ARE THE SAME WORDS THAT I USED FOR TECHNOLOGY IN 1996. IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, I SEE ALTERNATIVE ENERGY STOCKS ACHIEVING MANY FOLDS IN RETURNS.

SHORT TERM TREND – THIS WEEK: SIDE WAY

MEDIUM TERM TREND – WEAK

LONG TERM- 6 MONTHS TO 2 YEARS: DOWN

IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO WATCH THE COMING TIME.

OIL

This week oil will trade sideway. On Tuesday and Thursday, crude will rebound but will be time to sell in rising. Friday will be the right day to put money into oil. A three percent rise will bring a selling opportunity while a four percent fall will bring a buying opportunity, so trade accordingly.

GRAINS

Last week corn and wheat gained smartly. I see a continuation of the rising trend for grains, but always remember to book profit when you gain. One can book profit on Monday and Tuesday on a rising trend as I see them sharply going up. Friday will be the right day to get in again but this time put your focus on Soybean.

Grains are my favourite area of investment for 2006.

TREASURY BONDS

Last week bonds gained quite handsomely. I expect the momentum to remain upbeat. When you see a two day downward trend during this week, it should be taken as a buying opportunity (don’t miss it).

Important note: Wall Street and investors will experience a new combination – I see interest rates rising but the bond will also rise with the dollar index.

CURRENCIES

Last week the dollar index gave a sign which one can take as a sure bet. The dollar index will enter into a medium term bull market and I feel that it is a lifetime opportunity to sell all currencies at this stage. Look at the South African Rand: it went down almost 10 percent in the last two weeks. The same will happen with the Canadian and Australian dollars as well as other currencies.

The dollar will rise sharply and surpass its recent fall.

This week is still a great opportunity to accumulate the dollar and sell other currencies. Don’t be scared even if US Dollar falls sharply one of the days during this week. It is entering into a historic quick rising in a short period.

COFFEE

I still hold my wait and watch policy on coffee by acquiring a small position each week. Make sure you plan to buy for the next three weeks but afterwards, we won’t have time to buy as the rise will be quite sharp.

COTTON

Trade in the same way as in coffee as the same prediction applies for cotton. Small quantity buying each week will be the right strategy.

SUGAR and Orange juice will also follow a similar path to last week’s predictions.

I am attaching last week’s newsletter at the end, so that one can review it.

Trade strictly with stop-loss because commodities are entering into a horribly volatile period. The future short term and medium term trends are weak, therefore trade accordingly.

I wish to conclude with a parable of ‘The Lion and the Boy’. Last week, the lion came- he is around, therefore watch the trend in metals, stock market/currency:

While standing outside his village, a boy visualized a lion. He therefore ran back to the village in panic shouting ‘Lion! Lion! The Lion is coming!’ All the villagers hastily left whatever they were doing and grabbed any weapon within reach and rushed to where the boy was pointing. To the relief of many and anger of some, they found out that it was merely a sheep. A few months later, the boy came running again from the jungle and started shouting that the Lion was coming. This time however, no one heeded him and the villagers ignored him; after all his previous cries had been without cause. Unfortunately, there really was a lion this time round and it attacked the defenceless village, killing many people.

I wish you good luck for this week.

Thanks & God bless

Sharma Mahendra 21 May 2006

Short-Term Geocosmics:

There are no major geocosmic signatures in effect this coming week. The cosmic action ended last week, and correlated with a major or primary cycle trough in many markets, especially stocks. Now we have to see how high this current rally will carry equities before we can determine whether or not the 4-year cycle crest actually ended with the crests of May 4-12. To determine that, we will need to examine carefully the structure of this rally, and how long it lasts. If the bull market is still intact, the rally should last more than 8 weeks. If bearish, it would likely last less than 5 weeks. Our next test via geocosmics will come June 4-22, our third huge cluster zone of the year. The former were March 1-17 and April 30-May 10. Both hit perfectly.

In the June 4-22 period, there will be seven Level 1 signatures (strongest correlations to primary or greater cycles). We also had seven Level 1 signatures in the April 30-May 10 time band. Most noteworthy in the June 4-22 period is the second passage of the Jupiter-Saturn waxing square of June 22. Also important will be the waxing square of Sun-Uranus (June 5) and Uranus turning retrograde (June 19). With Uranus, you must expect volatility, and the unexpected. It is an “earthquake” dynamic, which means it shakes things up from the norm. Markets will likely move in very sharp price increments, exhibiting strong rallies and powerful declines. With Jupiter square Saturn, greed (Jupiter) will run head long into fear (Saturn). Look for a top around these periods, followed by another disturbing decline right afterwards. I anticipate the amplitude of these swings will be very evident in the Silver too – perhaps even more so than in stocks.

Long-Term Thoughts:

I am oftentimes asked how long and how high do I think Gold can soar (and fall)? First of all, consider that we are now in the downside of the Saturn-Pluto economic cycle (from opposition to conjunction). This 18-year phase lasts from 2001-2020. As stated many times before, this is the part of the economic cycle when federal deficits increase, interest rates rise, economies stagnate (for the most part), and there are more recessions that last longer and longer, while periods of prosperity get shorter and shorter. In this phase of the cycle, commodities tend to perform better than usual, and stocks and bonds perform worse than usual. So in answer to “how long can Gold be bullish?” my response is “Probably into the end of the next decade.” My guess is that Gold can top out within two years of the January 2020 conjunction of Saturn and Pluto. It last topped out in January 1980 with an all-time of $850.00/ounce, and that was within approximately two years before Saturn and Pluto formed their last conjunction.

From the conjunction of Saturn and Pluto to their opposition, federal deficits tend to be reduced, interest rates come down, and the economy, bonds, and stocks tend to perform very well. It is a time to be in the equity markets, investing your money into the economy. However, precious metals and commodities tend not to perform very well during this 18-year phase of the cycle. We saw that from 1982 through 2001. Stocks did very well, but Gold did very poorly. Now the cycle is reversed into 2020, +/- 2 years.

So how high can Gold go? ....$2000.00-4000.00 is not out of the question.

And my colleague Manfred Zimmel of Austria presents an argument for $6000.00. And yes, there will be smaller secular bear markets in between now and 2020. I am referring here to a long-term trend, an 18-year trend. Within that there are smaller cycles that will have their downward trends. One may be in effect right now as we approach the Moon’s North Node transit over the 0 Aries point around June 13-20. There are always cycles within cycles. And the trend is ultimately determined by the type of cycle you are looking at. In this section, I am referring to an 18-year cycle, a lunar Nodal cycle and half a Saturn-Pluto cycle. The 18-19 year cycle is the most documented economic cycle in the study of cycles.

http://www.mmacycles.com/artweek.htm

Dear CIGAs

$682 - $887.50 - $1650 is all in gold’s sight. Relax and enjoy the weekend.

Gold is going to climb the price ladders, act violently and reward greatly.

Gold Crush or Rush ?

Commentary: Dollar demise practically ensures gold's rise
By Kevin Kerr, Market Watch
May 26, 2006

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- In the currency world, the dollar is often referred to as "invincible" or a "flight to quality" instrument. Don't bet on it.

A country saddled with debt, ongoing problems with global diplomacy and an economy almost solely based on credit -- and the dependence on the ability to print more money at any time -- hardly exhibits the traits of a "flight to quality" instrument.

Modern dilemma
In his eye opening book "Demise of the Dollar," Addison Wiggin writes "The Great Dollar Standard Era is a direct result of the removal of gold as the underpinning of the world's currencies... The vast overprinting of currency will inevitably debase the value of the U.S. dollar, because so many foreign currencies are pegged to the dollar, the currency of those nations as well."

Throughout the 1970s and early 80s, U.S. investors were filled with fear that the greenback would continue to lose purchasing power. Few had confidence in the government's ability to limit the expansion of the money supply, culminating in a rush to buy precious metals from 1979 to 1980. I remember my father buying gold ingots and Indian Head gold coins. Everyone had them.

Golden future

Gold may seem antiquated and a relic of days gone by; an impractical alternative -- but it's far from that. Central banks are adding to their reserves -- and so are individuals. Remember, gold has been around for millennia while the mighty U.S. dollar has only managed to survive a couple of hundred years -- a rough couple of hundred years at that.
Mayer puts it best when he quotes Murray N. Rothbard, "Though the old classical gold standard was not perfect, it was, in Rothbard's words 'by far the best monetary order the world has ever known, an order which worked, which kept business cycles from getting out of hand, and which enabled the development of free international trade, exchange and investment.'"
Gold may not be on a perfectly straight road to higher prices as evidenced by the volatility of late, but one thing is clear, gold is the best alternative to the current fiat fiasco of fiscal policy.
The U.S. dollar is on trial in the world financial markets and I for one am not waiting for the verdict.

I am hedging the outcome with gold now while it's still very cheap.

more.....http://www.marketwatch.com/New…teid=mktw&dist=RNPullDown

del

@eldo

das muss stimmen !!!

Meine Freundin meinte gestern auch,daß sie der Meinung ist, alles wird teurer!

Und die hat immer Recht!!!

Grüsse fitzroy

PS:Glückwunsch nachträglich!

@ Eldo
Mit Verspätung: welcome im Club ...

Viel passiert in den letzten 2 Wochen, vielleicht war es ein Glück, dass ich unterwegs war und kaum etwas tun konnte, ausser vorletzte Woche, natürlich zu früh, bereits etwas nachzukaufen.
Ab morgen werde ich die 30% Cash etwas reduzieren und denke bevorzugt an physisches und Juniors.

So sitzen wir jetzt zwischen extremen Positionen, sagen wir mal hier Eldo, dort Saccard. Da halte ich es mit Mahendra (zum ersten und einzigen Mal!):

I don’t want to predict a downside price for gold but one thing is sure: for two months, it will not be a great period for gold.

Meine Wunschvorstellung: der POG bildet in den nächsten Wochen ein Dreieck zwischen 637 - 677 und bricht dann aus - im Dreamliner auf 777.

Grüsse
midas

;) midas

Saccard und ich sind anderer Meinung, vielleicht hat er Recht ?

Wir sehen es ja bald.

Du hast auch Recht , und ein Glueck das du noch Cash hast.

Weil du im Urlaub/Unterwegs warst.

Mein Gefuehl sagt mir das es nicht solange dauert bis der markt reagiert auf die Korrektur.

Next week we should see some reaction.

Ich hoffe die meisten seller sind raus und demoralisiert.

Wenn selbst Saccard schon die Kurve gekratzt hat zu meinen Bedauern.

Der grosse Panik Verkauf war schon. IMO

Wie viel die Cabals aber noch rauswaschen wollen weiss ich auch nicht.

Irgendwann gibt es fast keine seller, dann kommt ein neuer Bull.
Ich traue mir wetten wenn jetzt jemand einige tonnen gold bestellt fuer 650 dann kriegt er sie nicht geliefert.
Die Bestellungen laufen schon laengst, fuer einen 100 Fiat Dollar Discount.

Aber jetzt weiss jeder durch die Medien das er zwei monate warten soll um dann zu kaufen wenn HUI bei 270 ist und Gold bei > 620 $

.......deshalb kauft jetzt keiner und geht sideways fuer zwei monate.

Alle denken das selbe, einer denkt falsch, ich denke wieder contrarian.

Die Russen, Asiaten und die von der Opec sehen das auch, es kommt ihnen nur Recht.

Das ganze war ein kurzer booster fuer den Dollar, klar die Cabals mussten was machen.

Jetzt sitzen sie noch tiefer in der Kacke mit ihren Deriviaten.

Irgendwann geht denen wieder die Luft aus und es wird wieder parabolic oder paranoia auf dem markt.

Eine Bombe genuegt, und die Theorie von zwei Monaten kannst wieder vergessen.

Its very tensed out there !

Ich denke mir das die 330 HUI zumindest halten, mehr erwarte ich mir nicht.

Die zwei Monate ""down or sideways"" wovon die alle reden kann ich auch aussitzen.

Am besten von 19 Juni bis Ende August.

Da zisch ich ab, muss ja !

The sun will shine on me again and I have Gold in my pocket.

Deine Wunschvorstellung ist auch meine.

Cheers, good luck and happy shopping.

Welcome to the Club.

XEX

Paul meint der Commoditiy Market/Boom ist erstmal vorbei:

May 26 - No, Paul Van Eeden hasn't started playing for the Edmonton Oilers - but he is most definitely playing defense. Wait until you hear what Paul has to say about the Bull Market in Commodities. Paul shares his new target for the price of Gold (900 USD) , and leaves you with a lot more to ponder.
Er hat 50% seiner PM's bei seinen ersten target von 700 USD verkauft.

Bei einem PoG von 900 USD geht er dann ganz raus weil er glaubt es wird dann irrational und der PoG kann sich auf Dauer nicht mehr halten.
Ich schaetze mal der HUI steht dann bei 560-600 dann sollte/kann man ebenfalls auf nummer sicher gehen.
IMO die 1650 USD die Sinclair sieht sind moeglich aber dazu braucht man schon ein Chaos mit dem USD und weltweite Probleme dazu.
Die Frage ist ob sich dann der Durchschnittsbuerger noch Gold kaufen kann wenn er durch die Inflation schon genug andere Probleme hat.

Hier begruendet Paul von Eeden warum er so denkt.

http://www.howestreet.com/gold…/mediaplayer?audio_id=323

Ich finde es gut das wir verschiedene Meinungen haben und nicht nur Optimisten die glauben es geht immer so bergauf wie bis vor 3 Wochen.
Es ist wirklich schwer zu sagen wie es weiter geht denn die Stimmung auf dem Markt ist getruebt und Angst kommt auf.
Es wird sicherlich noch groessere Skandale geben als LTMC/Enron etc.
Wieviel Power das PPT hat werden wir noch sehen, jedenfalls die Zahlen die sie uns geben sind gefaelscht was Inflation etc.angeht.
Auf jeden Fall absicherrn mit physischen Gold der einzige Schutz gegen den Waehrungs/Kaufkraftverlust bei allen Fiat Geld auf der Welt.

Sollte Saccard recht haben mit seiner Meinung bin ich der erste der ihn gratuliert.

MfG

Eldo