Verfall des Hegemon USA

Edel Man

Ich habe Bandulet kennen und schätzen gelernt; seine Prognosen sind mit sehr grosser Wahrscheinlichkeit immer zutreffend.
Die 600US$/Oz. in 2007 sind meiner Meinung nach sehr wahrscheinlich und vermutlich nur die untere Begrenzung.

Grüsse

die viel wichtigere frage aber ist wo steht dann der euro, ein hoher goldkurs und ein hoher euro macht alles zu nichte oder

“China VS U.S. – Round 1!”

Did you go anywhere over the 4th?

We drove down to Myrtle Beach & the Hilton last Friday. Attempted to spend some quality time by the pool Saturday but the needs of the family kept calling. Our little child had to go to the bathroom in a hurry. We made it to the bathroom but not in time enough to unravel the knot in the bathing string. So, I find myself holding a hand full of kid poop inside a bathing suit & heading back up to the hotel room to get cleaned up.

But I think the good Lord wanted to remind me that vacations are for the “family” & not just daddies wanting to peruse their reading material by the pool in quiet. Just ain’t going to happen.

Heading home later back to Greenville we witnessed all the incoming traffic heading down to Myrtle Beach for the July 4th weekend. The traffic was literally backed up all the way to Florence for over a hundred miles. I thought where are folks getting all this money to go on holiday & then I remembered all those wonderful home equity loans providing cheap money.

Well, are you following events in China?

Read a great piece in Time magazine while in Myrtle Beach -between the kid poop. What I liked best about this article was how effectively it illustrated the American naiveté as regards to how we as a nation view other countries. Very interesting. Listen to the following.

“U.S. – China relations are stronger than they have ever been. So, why is Bejing engaged in a military buildup?” By Michael Elliot, Here Comes China!, Time Special Report, 6-27-2005

Let’s stop here and think about what we just read. The audacity for a writer to ask why any nation is building its defenses is just beyond my comprehension. I suppose only America has the right to arm itself & to protect its interests? But the article gets even deeper than this as we read another great line below.

“Will the U.S. come to think of China as a friend or a foe?” By Michael Elliot, Here Comes China!, Time Special Report, 6-27-2005

First of all nations are neither friends nor foes. They are competitors. That concept seems to be something we as a people have simply forgotten. And the verbiage gets only deeper.

“The U.S. & China are intimately linked – for better or worse. Can we make room for each other?” By Michael Elliot, Here Comes China!, Time Special Report, 6-27-2005

When I read that last line it reminded me of ancient Carthage & Rome & how these two great empires were so careful & kind to “make room for one another” so long ago. The article goes on to quote Richard Haas, the president of the Council of Foreign Relations. He states how it is the goal of the United States to “manage” China's growing rise so that the U.S. may gently guide China “peacefully” within the U.S. Hegemony.

Right!

And I am sure China’s greatest concern is to be careful to not disturb the U.S. Empire or to threaten the balance of power including U.S. interests. But as China already knows very well the balance of power has already been upset & has already shifted east. The U.S. & her people already are quickly becoming in effect a colonial & Asian possession.
And will China take a hard stand against the United States for seeking to interfere with China’s desire to buy a U.S. oil company?
“China tells Congress to back off…” ChinaDaily.com, 7-5-2005
I believe what we are going to begin to witness is China’s efforts to assert its new economic strength & to use those bargaining chips it holds in the form of U.S. debt.
“The Chinese government on Monday sharply criticized the United States for threatening to erect barriers aimed at preventing the attempted takeover of the American oil company Unocal Corp. by one of China's three largest energy firms, CNOOC Ltd.” ChinaDaily.com, 7-5-2005
This bid by China is merely the opening salvo of a calculated strategy to begin to back the U.S. into an economic corner so that China may begin more thoroughly to acquire important world assets.
"We (China) demand that the U.S. Congress correct its mistaken ways…” ChinaDaily.com, 7-5-2005
China is not a fool & they know they hold the high cards for bargaining. They hold the mortgage on the United States Debt & the U.S. Congress knows this.
“But whatever comes of the Unocal battle, tensions over Chinese investment are probably only beginning.” ChinaDaily.com, 7-5-2005
And if the United States stands in the way of China’s procuring important oil assets I am firmly convinced China is prepared to threaten to quit purchasing U.S. Treasury instruments. And how many politicians next election will that cost as the economy then drops off a cliff? China has the U.S. over a barrel & they know it.
“But the simplest reason for tension may be the amount of cash at China's disposal: As investment pours in and China's central bank buys dollars to maintain the value of its currency, the country has amassed $650 billion in foreign exchange reserves. China has plowed much of that money into U.S. Treasury bonds.” ChinaDaily.com, 7-5-2005
And now what we are witnessing is China’s calculated long planned strategy to start cashing in that $650 billion in U.S. foreign exchange reserves. And if the U.S. attempts to block this oil deal they are telling the Chinese simply that those $650 billion U.S. Dollars China holds are worthless & are not exchangeable for tangible assets.
And what are the professionals continuing to say about gold?
“Opportunity knocks” “Still, many analysts emphasized that the latest decline in gold prices provides a good opportunity for investors to buy in. THEY BELIEVE THE GOLD MARKET'S HEADED HIGHER IN THE LONGER TERM.” "Investors should be buying aggressively at these levels," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report.” "Gold and silver are now deeply oversold, and poised for an explosive rally," he added.” “Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter said the market may just surprise investors with "how fast it retraces the losses near term." “John Reade, an analyst at UBS in London, also believes longer-term investors should use any further weakness in gold to build positions as the metal "remains set to benefit from the medium-term weakening of the U.S. dollar that we expect," he wrote in a note to clients.” Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch, 7-4-2005
But still as we have observed gold continues to be ignored by the masses.
And the masses have found a new investment craze that is hotter than a fire cracker. And that investment craze is of course real estate. I mentioned earlier we were in Myrtle Beach last week – a popular sea side tourist area – while there I observed the real estate craze in full swing. In Myrtle Beach there is a long waiting list to buy new condominiums. Before they are even built waiting lists to bid on these condos are completely filled up. And that is a mania waiting to crash.
Let’s close with our discussion of China & their new plans to begin ridding themselves of all those accumulated U.S. dollars.
"We invest too much in U.S. federal bonds, and they don't make us much money," said Pan Rui, a professor at the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. "Now we're learning to invest more wisely, to try to invest in American companies and industries." ChinaDaily.com, 7-5-2005
Did you catch that last text coming out of China? Let’s here it again for emphasis.
"WE INVEST TOO MUCH IN U.S. FEDERAL BONDS…” (and now China wishes to) “…invest in American companies and industries." ChinaDaily.com, 7-5-2005
I believe China is telling us bluntly that their strategy is now changing & that it is their desire to begin cashing in all those U.S. dollar chips they have been accumulating.
They are signaling their intent to:
1 Begin unloading U.S. Treasuries.
2 They have begun a buying spree for global assets & world resources.
And if the U.S. government forbids China the freedom from making these purchases China will still unload their U.S. Treasuries & at a minimum will almost certainly cease the daily buying of U.S. debt.
“Let us recognize that we are moving into a new phase of history.” James Howard Kunstler, The Long Emergency, 2005
Yes, we are in for some interesting times ahead & very soon.
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David N. Vaughn
Gold Letter, Inc.
David4054@charter.net
Gold Letter Website
July 8, 2005
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Zitat

Dollar I/2007 Ziel 61

damit ist er effektiv ja fast nichts mehr wert und dazu passt Greenspan Äußerung.

Erstmals bei einer Notenbank-Konferenz 1999, später auch in Dubai bei der Arabischen Liga sprach Greenspan "von einer grundsätzlichen Dollarkorrektur bis 2007" und weiter von einer "Vereinigung Dollar Euro zum Euro-Dollar", einer neuen Welt-Währung. Vielleicht bekommt man dann für 100 alte Euro nur noch 10 neue Euro-Dollar. Das ist eine arglistige Methode, um die Währungsschulden der Staaten abzuwerten und damit den Bürgern ihr Altgeld "zu entsorgen".

Silberwolf

# All ,

so wirres Zeug was man jetzt lesen kann über den Dollar und Euro habe ich schon lange nicht mehr.Die Bank Sarasin in Zürich kommt zu dem Schluß das Anfang 2006 die Dollarwende kommt und wir uns auf eine länger andauernden Dollar-Anstieg vorbereiten müßten.

Aber der Preis macht die Nachrichten ,nicht die Nachrichten den Preis.

Nun nachdem der Euro gegen den Dollar in 2005 verloren hat, melden sich Englische Großbanken zum Wort und sehen den Euro schon als gescheitert an.Das der Euro ja eine " Historische- Kunstwährung " ist, wissen wir ja alle, aber der Dollar ist doch auch nur aus Papier und dahinter steht auch nichts mehr nachdem die Golddeckung aufgehoben worden ist. ( 1971)
Beide Währungen haben ihre Probleme- Verschuldung ect.- es stellt sich nach meiner Ansicht beide taumeln und werden stürzen es ist nur die Frage wer wohl zu erst dran ist.

gruß hpoth

IWF: USA müssen Dollar weiter abwerten(Die Presse) 02.08.2005
Die US-Wirtschaft werde zwar weiter stark wachsen. Der Dollar verliere aber stark an Kaufkraft.

WASHINGTON (Bloomberg/Reuter). Eine gemischte Botschaft enthält der aktuelle Bericht des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) zur US-Wirtschaft. Die gute Nachricht: Der IWF erwartet für heuer und 2006 ein kräftiges Wachstum von je 3,5 Prozent. Die schlechte Nachricht: Der Dollar hat nach Berechnung des IWF in den vergangenen drei Jahren rund zwölf Prozent an Kaufkraft verloren - und müsse weiter abgewertet werden. Ansonsten werde das US-Leistungsbilanzdefizit mittelfristig hoch bleiben. Zudem müsse das Budgetdefizit stark verringert werden. "Relativ unambitioniert" sei das Ziel von Präsident George W. Bush, den Fehlbetrag in den kommenden fünf Jahren zu halbieren. Für das bis September laufende Budgetjahr erwartet die US-Regierung ein Defizit von 333 Mrd. Dollar (rund 275 Mrd. Euro). Das entspräche 2,7 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsproduktes (BIP).

mal das Gegenteil von der Bank Sarasin

Aber ich denke auch wie Edel Man Papierwährungen werden gegenüber reellen Werten drastig abwerten müssen.
Man spricht immer von der Stärke des Dollars oder des Euros je nachdem wer gerade mal steigt, aber richtig wäre von schwach oder sehr schwacher Währung zu reden.

Zitat

Wichtig ist für uns doch, daß beide Währungen, letztlich alle, gegen Gold abwerten.

ich als finde das von der bank sarasin gar nich so schlecht mit 2006 vielleicht wirds sogar noch eher was.

Ich bin ja kein Bänker und mir fehlen selbstverständlich sämtliche Informationen die einer Schweitzer Bank zur Verfügung stehen...aber hat Sarasin die von Ihnen erwartete mehrjährige "Dollar-Hausse "eigentlich irgendwie begründet oder haben die es im Urin?

Meines Wissens nach hat sich fundamental seit einigen Jahren nichts geändert an der Situation der USA und des Dollars und ich sehe keinerlei Massnahmen oder politische Richtungswechsel die eine Änderung der Fundamentals herbeiführen könnten. Die blosse Tatsache dass Greenspan aufhört wird wohl zu keiner Dollar-Hausse führen.

Also "What the hell" erzählen die für einen Nonsens???