Ticker: APM CN
Market cap: C$286m RECOMMENDATION (unc): BUY
Net cash: US$87m Price: C$1.82/sh TARGET (unc): C$2.20/sh
07 February 2022
Project: San Bartolome Country: Bolivia
RISK RATING: HIGH
At any given time, a small number of silver companies trade a big premium to NAV, driven by silver’s torque to precious metals sentiment and a relative scarcity of actionable silver primary producers. Unfortunately, the pattern is for operational set-backs to cause such premium names to de-rate with recent examples being Fresnillo, Fortuna and Gatos. In that context we think Andean’s steady cash flow (24% 2021E FCF yield on EV netting out US$87m of cash and eq), relatively simple mining and processing, and 13-year track record of production at San Bartolome make for an excellent risk-reward opportunity relative to peers. In the upcoming FDF resource / scoping study, we see potential to extend mine life by another 5 years and add meaningful tin production. Tin is in significant supply deficit and prices +10% YTD vs the S&P 500 -6% YTD. Finally, the exploration announced today at San Pablo and Rio Blanco is in the stock for free. Meanwhile, Eloro (C$220m mcap) and New Pacific (~C$530m mcap) show the market is willing to pay a significant premium for successful Bolivian exploration and while early days, it is a free option with potentially large porphyry upside. For now, we maintain our base case estimates and reiterate our BUY rating and C$2.20/sh price target based on 1.3x NAV5%-24/oz.
15,000m exploration program at San Pablo targeting porphyry Au mineralization
Andean announced commencement of a 15,000 phase two drilling program at the San Pablo project to follow on 2021’s SCIP and MT surveys completed in December. An initial four-holes for 3,100m will test four low-resistivity, high-chargeability (interpreted as potential porphyry sulphides) targets with the next 11,900m planned to incorporate result of the first 3,100m. Mineralization at San Pablo is hosted in sediments over a 2.5-1.5km area. Mineralization is related to sulphides in sheeted veins and veinlets, wider veins and sulphide-cemented breccias with pervasive silica-sericite alteration. Exploration at the Rio Blanco project is targeted for commencement in 2H22.
Figure 1. Map of San Pablo showing anomalies, survey lines and planned 2022 drill holes; (B) Plans and section of planned DDH-SP-22-013 showing gold geochem, outcrop, resistivity anomaly and interpreted geological cross section
Why we like Andean
- >20% FCF yield is anomalously high relative to peers
- Proven operating history at San Bartolome de-risks cash flow forecasts
- Strong management team and balance sheet with capacity to build a multi-asset producer
- Able to benefit from size / trading liquidity re-rate
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Catalysts
- Imminent: Updated MRE on San Bartolome Fines (FDF)
- 1Q22: Scoping study on San Bartolome Expansion to process FDF
- Ongoing: Exploration and M&A ReviewResearchJustin Chan (London) M: +44 7554 784 688 jchan@sprott.com
Brock Salier (London) M: +44 7400 666 913 bsalier@sprott.com
Brandon Gaspar (Toronto) M: +1 437 533 3142 bgaspar@sprott.com EleanorMagdzinski(Toronto)M:+17056697456 emagdzinski@sprott.com
https://sprott.com/media/4862/220207-scp-apm-exploration.pdf