Wie geht es auf dem Goldmarkt weiter

Le Metropole Members,

Bryant Blake sent me the following after the MIDAS this
evening:

Bill,

Today was 1st delivery day for the June COMEX gold, and
we got the out of the park home run which confirms the
something is up. A total of 13,436 contracts were delivered.
The shocker is that J.P. Morgan bought 11,628 of the
contracts.

That's 1.16 million ounces of gold at a
purchase price of $768 million dollars!!

http://www.nymex.com/media/delivery.pdf.

Thanks, -Bryant

More gold goodies was also late this evening, but
included this MOST astute commentary:

Most observers are bewildered by the open interest
slump. My guess is that this is the reverberations
of the settlement of some monster physical transaction.
One remembers how the Dutch sale announcement in
early '93 immediately preceded the dramatic move of
that year.

***

Something VERY BIG is up ... to be dealt with in future
MIDAS commentaries.

Könnte interessant werden, wenn das so stimmt.

Gruß

DAU2006

Dau, das stimmt, darum gestern und heute der Anstieg.
JPM hat sich Gold physisch liefern lassen wird gemurmelt.
Die PM Pessimisten und Baeren schweigen heute.
Gold/Silber wird immer fuer eine Ueberraschung sorgen.
Expect the unexpected, buy when everybody wants to sell or talks about.
Just buy the dips and relax. If you lose your faith or belief you are done.
Be brave when other's run, don't be a sheep in the herd when the PPT Wolf comes to the scene....he has not much teeth left, he lost some again.
I take a break now, my shopping is done, it looks like at the right time.
I'll cash in later for the risk I took, I'll focus on something else now.

LIFE !

Good Luck to all Silver & Goldbugs

Zitat

Original von Eldorado

JPM hat sich Gold physisch liefern lassen wird gemurmelt.

Diese Sache ist äußerst merkwürdig, und es wundert mich ein wenig, daß die GATA-Leute, die ja ansonsten hinter jeder Ecke - ob nun zu Recht oder nicht - eine Intervention des PPT vermuten, die jüngste Kontraktion beim COT-Open Interest durch diese massive Lieferverpflichtung so einheitlich als Zeichen begrüßen, daß "something big" kommen wird.
Richtig ist jedenfalls, daß so etwas gerade um den Rolltermin herum wirklich fast einzigartig ist, jedenfalls sofern ich die letzte Monate richtig überblicke. Falls nicht, bitte posten...

Andererseits muß man JPM doch mehr als deutlich in den Dunstkreis eines PPT einordnen. Also just another trick around the corner?

Andere Möglichkeiten, die plausibel erscheinen:

1) sie kaufen das physische Gold im Rahmen eines Dehedging-Prozesses für einen großen Goldproduzenten ( kommen ja nicht sehr viele in Frage)

2) sie kaufen das physische Gold z.B. für China, das in den letzten Tagen unmißverständlich deutlich gemacht hat, daß sie zukünftig in alle möglichen Arten von Assets (z.B. Private Equity) investieren werden.
China wird sein Gold bestimmt auch vermehrt auf dem Heimatmarkt erwerben, dann aber natürlich in Yuan/Renmimbi, was am Devisenüberhang nichts ändern würde und stattdessen inflationstreibende Wirkung hätte. Sie werden also ganz sicher auch Gold über Dritte - z.B. JPM - in US$ erwerben müssen.

Diese Geschichte mit JPM ist sehr interessant; ich kann mir kaum vorstellen, daß das am Montag schon wieder verpufft ist.
Noch könnten die Commercials den derzeitigen Anstieg vor dem Wochenende umdrehen...

grüsse

auratico

auratico

Grandich sagte vorhin bei seinen video das es das highest open interest war in 25 Jahren das er gesehen hat vor dem Stichtag 1. Juni.
Das die derivate bombe einmal platzen wird ist klar, wer weiss ob das nicht das erste Anzeichen ist mit der Aktion von JPM.

Vielleicht ist es ein raffinierter Trick von JPM, ich weiss es nicht.
Ich weiss nur eines das der POG nun bei 670.60 USD steht und der HUI bei 341.50 im moment.

Das reicht mir zum Wochenende, bis jetzt kam keine PPT Gegenoffensive.
Zumindest ist der Anschlag auf die 650 erstmal abgewehrt was mich freut.
Ende Juli/August sollte es noch besser ausschaun fuer die Goldbugs.
Kann sein das es jetzt sideways geht fuer eine gewisse Zeit, das schlimmste scheint vorueber zu sein falls ich mich nicht irre.

Cheers and thanks for your opinion.

Have a great weekend guys.. Monday is a new trading day.

We'll see what is right and what is wrong.
Its just a matter of time and faith in King Gold.

XEX

Things have changed, the Gold COT Report today:

86.5% now Bullish

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1180726415.php

And Silver COT ?....74.5% Bullish

http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1180726492.php

Gold Warehouse Stocks:
7,633,132 - 34,803

Silver Warehouse Stocks:
130,497,159 -1,016

More action in either direction next week.

------------------------------------

China:

Investment in Gold?

Will they invest in gold? We believe they will, but the sheer size of their reserves makes it impossible for them to go into the open market to buy gold, after all a tonne of gold only cost $20 million, 50 tonnes a $billion. What will be easy for them to do is to buy gold for their reserves via the purchase of local production, now around 250 tonnes a year [a mere $5 billion], but this will be paid for with Yuan. The Chinese want to keep the surplus away from the Chinese economy and avoid increasing the inflationary printing of money, so they will be cautious when doing this. Such caution will, of course, be tempered by a continuous expansion of the local money supply to accommodate the larger economy and its consequential demand for more money. So the purchase of local gold is certainly on the table of choices in front of the Bank of China.

A more appropriate way to ensure that there is gold in China is to expand the size of the local Chinese gold market through the widening of the gold market and direct encouragement to the Chinese citizens to buy gold and we believe they want to do this. After all the holding of gold by its citizens, still leaves that gold within its reach.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldForecaster/1180712552.php

Cheers

XEX

GO GATA!!!

What a nice way to start off the month. Meanwhile, this is a time to question coincidences …

1. The dramatic drop of 55, 132 contracts in the gold open interest on Wednesday.

2. Yesterday’s OI fell another 5634 contracts, bringing the new number down to 364,922
… meaning The Gold Cartel and friends were covering massively as the predictable funds SOLD THE BOTTOM.

3. JP Morgan Chase picks up the cheap gold at this bottom, taking in more than 11,000 contracts for delivery. Then this announcement a day later …

PRESS RELEASE

1 June 2007 - The ECB’s gold sales

Over the past two months, the European Central Bank (ECB) has conducted gold sales amounting to 37 tons of gold.

These sales are in full conformity with the Central Banks’ Gold Agreement, dated 27 September 2004, of which the ECB is a signatory.

Together with the gold sales of 23 tons, completed on 30 November 2006, the ECB has thus sold 60 tons of gold in the third year of the agreement, which started on 27 September 2006 and ends on 26 September 2007.

It is not the ECB’s intention to sell more gold in the current year of the agreement.

–END-

All of that was one big coincidence… riiiiiiiight!

So AFTER The Gold Cartel does its thing to suppress the price and blows numerous specs out of the water, gold turns right around and starts going right back up.

What does all this mean?

Most importantly it reinforces what the GATA camp has to say about the gold market … in that it is all about The Gold Cartel, other central bank selling, and the physical market. Other factors, such as a weaker dollar, contribute to the demand for gold, but are a distant second to why the price of gold is going to well above $2,000 per ounce.

As The Gold Cartel runs out of available central bank gold to suppress the price, it will continue to rise and rise and rise. This was all laid out by Frank Veneroso at the GATA African Gold Summit on May 10, 2001 with the price at $256 per ounce. The price of gold has moved up for the very reasons he presented to the attendees.

Here it is again:

Facts, Evidence and Logical Inference

A Presentation On Gold Supply/Demand, Gold Derivatives and Gold Loans

By

Frank A. J. Veneroso

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/pfv.cfm?pfvID=1525

-END-

Expect the unexpected....

I wanted to make a special notation to describe what has been happening in the gold market based on the Commitment of Traders reports from this week. I had expected to see the funds reducing their longs and increasing their shorts with the commercials adding new longs and also reducing their short exposure. I also expected the spreaders to increase their exposure as well. We got some of this with the fund long liquidation that occurred, the increase by the commercials on the long side and a pretty sizeable further build in the spreader’s category. What surprised me this week was to have seen the funds covering shorts last week with the bullion banks (the gold perma-shorts) actually INCREASING their short exposure. I found the latter quite odd to say the least since the bullion banks typically do not sell the market down on weakness. They did this time around. While the commercial NET SHORT position actually decreased, it WAS NOT because the bullion banks were buying and covering shorts. They did not. Rather they increased the size of their short position. Granted, some of that may have occurred on Tuesday of this week when gold staged what looked like the beginning of a nice rally only to fade dramatically by day’s end. But it is still odd to see this taking place at such low levels in the gold price.

What will be particularly interesting to see in next week’s COT report will be the actions of the commercial shorts, aka, the bullion banks. Will they have reverted to their standard selling as the price rallied this week or will they have actually covered some of their shorts? We shall see.

..more>

http://jsmineset.com/

http://jsmineset.com/cwsimages…t_for_6-1-2007_part_1.pdf

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters)

Gold extended gains on Friday to hit a two-week high after the European Central Bank said it had no plans to sell any more gold this year, but a rise in the dollar may cap gains, dealers said.

European central banks pledged to cap their total sales at 2,500 tonnes in the 2004-2009 period, or 500 tonnes a year.
The third year of the five-year agreement runs until Sept. 26.

http://today.reuters.com/news/…ETS-PRECIOUS-UPDATE-4.XML

Artikel von Brian Bloom

(...)
Place your bets folks. Will the Central Bankers win this round or is your money on the Investment Community?
(...)
Right now, the outcome is a gamble, but my guess is that if the Dow Jones pulls back sharply to breathe, the gold shares will get caught in the down draught. The ratios might start giving sell signals.
(...)
Are you the bacon or the egg in this Battle of the Titans? Are you a pig or a chicken? You see, the chicken was involved. But the pig? Well, he was committed.
(...)
Clue: The Central Bankers may be pigs, but they are not chicken....

VG heron

""Right now, the outcome is a gamble, but my guess is that if the Dow Jones pulls back sharply to breathe, the gold shares will get caught in the down draught. The ratios might start giving sell signals."".....

Wer weiss, wer weiss ?.. es kann auch anders kommen, jedenfalls einen 15 % Puffer einbauen falls es so kommt.

Kurzfristig kann es den HUI auf die 300 Punkte schlagen, das aber nur ueber Wochen. IMO

Fuer mich ist der HUI auf den crash beim Dow z.B gut vorbereitet, ich gehe das Risiko ein.

Schau mal die HUI vs Dow Chart und DOW vs POG an.

F....the PPT !

XEX

A. BALTIN: SENTIMENT - THE OBVIOUS IS OBVIOUSLY WRONG - BRAINS AND A BULL MARKET

(...) Gold has yet to finish its consolidation, and the Gold stocks have not yet formed their base...

VG heron

heron

Das ist ein Artikel vom 29.Mai

Klar an dem Tag hat Gold /HUI noch keinen endgueltigen Boden gebildet und es war auch kein Ausbruch nach oben.

Der Ausbruch, real oder nicht kam aber dann am Donnerstag und Freitag.

Sag bloss du hast den verpennt.

Morgen gehts weiter, mal schaun ob Gold weiteren Druck standhaelt oder der Druck weg ist oder noch weiter ansteigt.

Zumindest einmal war es ein Gegenschlag.

Eine Freude fuer die gekauft haben vor dem Tag.
Die Pfennigfuchser die auf 550 -500 $ gewartet haben schauen wieder mal ins Rohr.

Den Boden selber sehen ist so eine Sache, dazu muss man vorher ein wenig bluten in dem Geschaeft um das noetige Fingerspitzengefuehl zu bekommen.

Erstmal Lehrgeld zahlen.....aber das kennst du wahrscheinlich schon.

Gruss

Eldo

Zitat

Original von Eldorado
heron

Das ist ein Artikel vom 29.Mai

Klar an dem Tag hat Gold /HUI noch keinen endgueltigen Boden gebildet und es war auch kein Ausbruch nach oben.

Der Ausbruch, real oder nicht kam aber dann am Donnerstag und Freitag.

Sag bloss du hast den verpennt.

Morgen gehts weiter, mal schaun ob Gold weiteren Druck standhaelt oder der Druck weg ist oder noch weiter ansteigt.

Zumindest einmal war es ein Gegenschlag.

Eine Freude fuer die gekauft haben vor dem Tag.
Die Pfennigfuchser die auf 550 -500 $ gewartet haben schauen wieder mal ins Rohr.

Den Boden selber sehen ist so eine Sache, dazu muss man vorher ein wenig bluten in dem Geschaeft um das noetige Fingerspitzengefuehl zu bekommen.

Erstmal Lehrgeld zahlen.....aber das kennst du wahrscheinlich schon.

Gruss

Eldo

Alles anzeigen

Später heißt es, SORRY DU KOMMST HIER NICHT REIN

Mexico Mike On PM Market Investing
Sunday, June 3, 2007.

I believe we at currently at an interval in the market that is critical for exposing the mindset of individual investors. The PM sector has been through a rough few weeks, with daily declines across the board occurring mostly on low volume. During this sort of trading regime, which is nothing new for the sector, it tends to bring into play the weaknesses that may lurk in the approach that some people take for investing. It is very easy in other words for people to be aggressive and fearless when the stocks are going up. When that inevitable correction appears, some may find that their conviction disappears, and amid the uncertainty of the market, many will sell at a loss.

Those who invest rationally however, and focus on value, with an in-depth understanding of what they own and why they buy, will manage through the market corrections. They were likely less aggressive buying the tops in the first place, and are more disciplined in their trading. They will not be shaken or concerned if the market turns extremely ugly for a period of time, because they have done their homework and understand how the short term volatility can push stocks to extremes.

The key point in this discussion is that it is ESSENTIAL that investors understand what they own. Only with this basis of research can people fully appreciate if a company has actually grown stronger in the business model, even while its share capital may be weaker. Any rational investor would agree that the case to buy a company is more compelling if the company has grown but the market value is declining. Time and time again however, rationality takes a back seat to fear and ignorance.

The time when it is probably the most optimum to be a buyer is most likely when a weak investor is going to be compelled to sell. People will make excuses and justify their decisions, suggesting they will just sell until things settle down and then buy back in at lower prices, and it sounds smart. But very few people are ever able to do so. And the violence of a correction, and the subsequent recovery, make it very difficult to time these moves. Usually, a stock will have made a recovery before the timid investor has repurchased it and established a position below where it was sold. The opportunity is lost.

I cannot advise anyone on which stocks will be suitable for their own weaknesses in pschycology. I can only share information that will hopefully make people better educated in their choices to widthstand the violent choppy trading that is sure to characterize the sector. How much to allocate, and whether to participate in the juniors at all, is up to the individual.

So to return to my original point, I think we are at a defining moment right now. So few people are confident about the near term. Most analysts are bearish, and I suspect most retail investors have sold at least some of their holdings during the last few weeks. Yet the market may be on the verge of a major rally, at a time when few are expecting it, just as the sector is famous for. Will people understand that holding value is the appropriate course?

The bottom line in all of this is that it emphasizes the need to take a longer term outlook on investment decisions. Speculators can jump in or out with remarkable agility, but investing implies a fundamental understanding of the company and the market sector, and therefore that development often takes many months to play out, while market volatility can occur over weeks or months. If you buy quality and then become concerned over a normal and expected market downturn, then your fear will undermine your opportunity for success.

Be an investor. Determine what a company is working to achieve and monitor the progress. Be proactive in the market, timing your action to buy weakness and sell strength. Know the difference in duration between a development cycle and a market cycle. The most important variable that will determine the performance of an investment is the ability to find quality companies and buy aggressively when the market temporarily prices them at a discount.

We may or may not get a strong recovery this week. Perhaps the reversal on Thursday and Friday were just counter-cyclical gyrations in what will be a prolonged correction. I do not pretend to know, and frankly, I do not care. I was a buyer during the correction and I am content to hold for the inevitable recovery whenever that may arrive. But woe unto those whom were selling the lows and must now watch from the sidelines if in fact we see a strong rebound play out this week.

Next year we will probably see the same kind of ups and downs. Perhaps those that got caught on the wrong side of a trade will recognize this as part of the ongoing education we all face as investors, and be better prepared for the next wave.

I describe myself as a perma-bull. I do not worry trying to time the corrections or sell ahead of them. My outlook is based on the expectation that we are in a generational long cycle bull market, with many years ahead to enjoy. Therefore any short term losses sustained will be recovered and then some, in short order. I know that my outlook is not compatible with the expectations of everyone else out there, so just take these comments in the context they are written, and hopefully it will help others to form their own effective strategy.

cheers!

Mexico Mike
http://www.smartinvestment.ca

This week in gold

Jack Chan
http://www.simplyprofits.org
written Jun 2, 2007
posted Jun 5, 2007

A fresh buy signal in the gold sector this week.

Summary:

We finally have a buy signal in the gold sector this week. For risk management, we will maintain tight stops and only add to positions upon further set ups.

Many charts, check it out

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan060507.html