Für Elk-Spotter: Northland Resources - NAU

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Two-Bagger

28,70 NOK + 200% in fünf Monaten [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.smiliemania.de/smilie132/00000451.gif]

Da muß man nicht zum Eiersuchen im Outback rumkrauchen.

Rio Tinto kann Eisenerzbedarf nicht decken

[miningmx.com] -- RIO Tinto, the UK listed diversified mining group, could not meet demand for iron ore from China, reported Reuters citing an executive from the mining group.

"The market is extremely tight," Sam Walsh, CEO of Rio Tinto's Iron Ore Group, told Reuters which was attending a Perth seminar run by the Committee For Economic Development of Australia.

Asked recently by analysts on a site visit how tight the market is, Walsh said that "quite frankly, we can't meet demand". Walsh's comments may fuel speculation of further iron ore price increases next year, after the more than doubling of contract prices in the past three years, Reuters said.
http://www.miningmx.com/wts/170625.htm

Am Freitag auf Rob-TV, 1. Hörerfrage.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.321gold.com/photos/paul_van_eeden_2.jpg]

Moderator: Is it a buy here still, even though it's run up 200% year to date?

VanEeden: If you are bullish on the iron market, yes, absolutely it's a buy. Personally I am concerned about economic activity. I am concerned about all commodity prices. Metal commodity price, including iron. And so I don't own the stock anymore. I sold out when it was around $2 a share. It is now $4.50, it's been as high as $5. But as long as iron doesn't come down, I think this company is going to do very well.

Vancouver, August 23, 2007: Northland Resources Inc. (`Northland`, TSX-V: NAU), is pleased to announce that the Company has defined a major,
NI43-101 compliant iron-copper-gold resource at its 100% owned Hannukainen project in Finland.

Total Measured plus Indicated resources are 84.6 million tonnes with an average grade of 34.6% Fe, 0.20% Cu, and 0.093 g/t Au using a cut-off of 15% Fe.

An additional 81.6 million tonnes @ 35.7 % Fe + 0.13% Cu + 0.036 g/t Au have been defined in the inferred category.

Pareto:
Conclusion: we re-iterate our Strong Buy. We believe the long term share price potential can exceed NOK 200. We increase our 12 month share price target from NOK 50 to NOK 75.

Very important Naur news. First 43-101 resources statement on Hannukainen. We re-iterate our Strong Buy. We increase our 12-month target from NOK 50 to NOK 75.

Northland today announced its first 43-101 compliant resource on the Hannukainen deposit. This resource was mined in the eighties but abandoned when metal prices were low. It contains iron ore, but also copper and gold. Northland have said that around 4.5mT was mined, and the Finnish geological survey has defined >60mT of resource.

The company has for more than a year been drilling with promising drill results. Today’s release is the first updated resource statement for this property, verified by independent consultants.

Based on historic drill cores and its own drill cores, the company has now defined a total resource at Hannukainen of 166mT. This is far more than we had hoped to see, as we had expected a resource definition of around 100mT. There is significant upside to these resources, because drilling continues to show promising mineralization. This is however of less significance, as the current definition already translates to a minelife in excess of 20 years.

The grades varies significantly, the copper rich Laurinoja ore, which was the one previously mined, has now defined 35mT in the Measured category with 38% Fe, 0.3% Cu and 0.17 g/t Au. The grades are somewhat lower than we had hoped to see (much lower for gold), but this is not the important thing.

The important issues are:

Northtland can now report a 43-101 Iron Ore Copper Gold deposit

This mine has been mined historically and we know the metallurgy works fine

Investors can now for the first time get a pretty good idea of its economics

The gross value of the metal in the ground (in-situ) in the resources reported today - at current metal prices - translates to 10bnUSD.

Apart from processing plant and mine equipment, all necessary infrastructure is essentially in place, and its deposits are in a stable political environment with high mining expertise (Finland)

The Hannukainen project economics is phenomenal, since the gold and copper can be taken at low additional cost. Our base case for the production of copper and gold, which is associated with the Hannukainen orebody, assumes USD 50m in processing cost. This translates to USD 180/Oz when converting copper revenues to gold equivalents. We believe this is very conservative.

With a 43-101 resource statement, this deposit is marketable towards North American investors, and we very much look forward to do so going forward

When fully up and running in 2012E on its three deposits Tapuli, Stora Sahavaara and Hannukainen, we estimate annual revenues at current metal prices of around USD 1.2bn. The combined projects at current metal prices are then estimated to generate an EPS of NOK 21 (fully diluted and fully taxed, assuming no more shares being issued).

The Laurinoja ore at Hannukainen that is in the Measured category (the highest probability), will in our base case (see below) generate an estimated EPS of NOK 10, this should happen in 2012E. This is the essence in today’s resource statement.

Northlands market capitalisation is USD 400m. The company will need to invest close to 1bnUSD to get Hannukainen and Stora Sahavaara into production (these will probably be running at the same processing plant). The company currently has ~USD 130m in cash (means it can order long lead time equipment now; very important). We believe the Barsele deposit can be sold for USD 50-100m further down the road. With feasibility studies due during 2008 and high likelihood of getting off take agreements with steel mills in Europe and the Middle East, we believe the projects can be financed with high financial leverage. We therefore believe that the company now is so well funded that a staged build up can be financed without significant future dilution.

Management and board is excellent.

Conclusion: we re-iterate our Strong Buy. We believe the long term share price potential can exceed NOK 200. We increase our 12 month share price target from NOK 50 to NOK 75.

Defined resources, historic resources, recent drill results and our expectations are shown in the below table.

The in-situ metal value is calculated to USD 10bn as shown in the below table

A preliminary P&L estimate on Hi/Mid/Lo scenarios on the Hannukainen deposit is shown below. As mentioned above the Stora Sahavaara and Tapuli iron ore deposits adds strongly to this earnings potential.

Auszugsweiser Nachtrag eines Updates, etwa vom 18.09.

Verifying the large IronOxideCopperGold Hannukainen deposit

The 43-101 resource statement is the first updated independent stamp on Hannukainen, showing long mine life potential and indicating superb economics. We up target to 75 from 50. Strong Buy

* The NI 43-101 published in August confirmed a large Iron Oxide Copper Gold (IOCG) resource (166mT) on Hannukainen.
* Iron grades were lower than expected, leading to slightly higher cash cost. Copper and Gold grades also lower than expected. At current spot prices (Au 715 USD/Oz, Cu 7600 USD/t), the reported copper and gold grades translate to app. 360,000oz per annum gold equivalent production in addition to the iron. At our price assumptions (Au 650 USD/Oz, Cu 5000 USD/t), the copper & gold equ. grades are 270,000 Oz.
* Despite the somewhat disappointing grades, the important issue to us is that the 43-101 for the first time gives mining investors an independent verification of this IOCG deposit, historically mined by Rautaruuki. We expect exceptional project economics from the by-products of copper and gold.
* We believe in the iron ore super cycle, lasting at least another 2-3 decades as large emerging economies gradually comes out of poverty to enjoy economic prosperity. Short term, expectations are that iron ore price for 2008 increase 20-30% from 2007. The world can’t get enough ore for its infrastructure build-out, driven mainly by the BRIC’s growth.
* The Company keeps adding world class people to its operation, recently including Stuart Pettifor (ex Director and acting CEO of Corus Steel) and Toumo Mäkelä (President of Outokumpu Mining Oy). We find management and board excellent, surely capable of developing Northland to a 1bnUSD sales company by 2012E.
* Based on the new 43-101, we re-iterate our Strong Buy and increase our 12-month target from NOK 50 to NOK 75.
* The recommendation was not presented to the issuer before dissemination

Hannukainen & the 43-101 statement

The Hannukainen deposit was mined in the eighties but abandoned when metal prices were low. It contains iron ore in addition to significant copper grades as well as some gold.

The grades defined were lower than we had expected, and certainly so for gold. This is however of lesser importance as the grades are more than good enough to generate superb economics. The important matter was to get the first independently verified resource statement.

Northland has previously said that around 4.5mT was mined historically, and the Finnish geological survey has a historic 60mT resource defined.

The company has for more than a year been drilling with promising drill results. Combined with assaying of historic drill cores (stored by the Finnish Geological Survey), the 43-101 defined a total resource at the Hannukainen project area of 166mT. This is far more than we had hoped to see. There is still significant upside to these resources, because drilling continues to show promising mineralization. This is however of lesser importance, as the current definition translates to a minelife close to 20 years.

The lower iron grades (in Laurinoja 2.5% lower Fe content than we had expected) means a higher strip ratio, which again leads to higher mining costs. The difference is rather insignificant, mined tonnage increase by 7%, equaling 1mT. At a mining costs of USD 8/ton this only yields an increase in the total cash cost of around 2.5%.

More disappointing is the low gold grade, which leads to far lower gold production than we had reason to believe. It may be that production eventually delivers more gold than indicated in the 43-101 (surely indicated by recent drill results as well as historic production), but the 0.17 g/t of gold in Laurinoja will nevertheless produce around 45,000 Oz p.a. (5mT pellets p.a. from Laurinoja requires 9mT tonnage, containing 0.17 g/t yields 1.44m grams, equaling 49,117 Oz, then subtract some percents for dilution). At our gold price assumption of USD 650/Oz this gold can be sold for around USD 30m.

The copper content is much more significant, yielding 28,000 tons p.a. (again assuming 5mT of pellet product and 9mT ore mined) – at our copper price assumption of USD 5,000 per tonne, this generates 140mUSD in additional revenues, translating to 215,000 Oz of gold equivalent revenues.

Combined copper and gold revenues from Laurinoja can thus be calculated to USD 170m. Translated to gold equivalent revenues it would equal ~250,000 Oz of gold production p.a., a significant operation by itself. Since the mining cost already has been accounted for by the iron ore, the by-products of copper and gold are extremely profitable. This is the beauty of IOCG mines. They are few and far between, when found they can amass their owners a fortune if the tonnage and grades are good. In this case the deposit seems very promising, and the beauty of it all is it’s (still) badly understood and hardly marketed towards the stock market.

This 43-101 statement for the first time enables investors to buy into a defined IOCG deposit and thereby digest the superb quality of Northland’s assets.

Triggers going forward

* Investor trip 19-20 September
* Other analysts initiating coverage during the autumn and winter
* Company news rest of the year includes more drilling data (from several deposits) and possibly also a scoping study on Stora Sahavaara
* Company roadshow towards US investors and probably also UK during the autumn/winter
* Possibly also analysts on site visit later this autumn
* Much higher iron ore prices for 2008 (may be seen already late 2007), up 20-30% (?)
* Feasibility studies late 2008 on Stora Sahavaara and Hannukainen
* Possibly a Barsele trade sale next 12-18 months
* Project rollout

Northland ist im November um ein Drittel abgestürzt. Warum, außer dem allgem. Börsenumfeld, ist unklar.

Vermutlich gabs ein neues Pareto Update mit unveränderter Kaufempfehlung.

>Pareto gab ein Update mit ? Strong Buy am Montag heraus mit dem Hintergrund der letzten Meldung ( unverändert bekräftigt, daß das Management auf dem richtigen Weg sei ) - aber das Kursziel wurde von 75 NOK auf 12,5 USD geändert. <

PARETO SENDTE UT OPPDAERING MED REPAT STRONG BUY PÅ MANDAG med bakgrunn i meldingen som kom (som ikke var annet enn en bekreftelse på at mgmt er på riktig vei) - men nå er target endret fra NOK 75 til USD 12,5 target

>Tauschte Mail mit meinem Pareto Kontakt aus.
Essenz, daß der Minensektor in letzter Zeit viel Prügel gekriegt hat. Aber Pareto hält das Ziel von 75 NOK aufrecht und empfiehlt nicht zu verkaufen und lieber neue Bohrresultate abzuwarten. <

Vekslet mail med min kontakt i Pareto idag.
Essensen er at mining sektoren generellt har fått mye juling i det siste. Men Pareto har target 75NOK på NAUR fortsatt, og anbefaler å ikke selge men heller avvente nye boreresultater.

Northland Resources (NAUR)
Company Update Price when published(USD): 3.01
09 januar 2008

STRONG BUY High Risk
Bloomberg: NAUR NO (rating unchanged)
Reuters: NAUR.OL Target Price (USD): 12.5
Sector: Basic Materials Market cap (USDm): 390
Style: Venture Analyst: Henning Lassen
Financial Details of 09 januar 2008
Print version (pdf)

3q07 report a non event - major value triggers in 2008

43-101 commpliant >100mT Resource statement Tapuli in 1Q8, increasing resources towards 500mT, scoping study Tapuli and Stora during 1H08 & feasibility in 2H08 demonstrating its huge economics

Naur released its 3q07 report 17 Dec, its accounting year ends Jan 31st, consequently the 3rd quarter ended Oct 31st.
The report is a general discussion of project progress, with no surprises or news. This was as could be expected – a non-event. The figures show the company now gradually ramps up costs to develop its assets. With the current burn rate the company will have spent the IPO proceeds by the end of 2008, which is according to plan. At quarter end the company had CAD 137m in cash and no debt; a very strong balance sheet - the dilution risk in Naur is very low.
Triggers for 2008 includes: 43-101 statement on Tapuli, we expect >100mT, increasing its total 43-101 defined Fe tonnage from current 340mT towards 500mT (longer term target is 1bnT); Scoping study of Stora Sahavaara and Tapuli is expected during 2Q08, a scoping study on Hannukainen is expected 2H08; Feasibility study on Stora & Tapuli late ’08; Hannukainen IOCG bulk sample 2H08, long lead item ordering 2H08; possibly off-take agreements with steel mills; and a solid price increase for iron ore during 1q08.
Company road shows as well as other analysts taking up coverage will expand investor recognition throughout 2008.
2008 thereby set to be year with strong value drivers. The resource expansion from the fast-tracking project Tapuli should demonstrate EPS capacity of NOK 1.75 from this project alone, while scoping and later feasibility study on Stora demonstrates economics of stage 2, taking EPS to a far higher stage, whilst also indicating economics of combined Stora & Hannukainen. 2012E EPS including IOCG >NOK 20.
We re-iterate Strong Buy and NOK 75 in 12 month target.
The recommendation was not presented to the issuer before dissemination.

Northland Resources Could Hit Its Magnetite Targets Quite Early This Year
...
The fact remains, however, that profitability in iron ore operations is all about transportation costs. [Und kann NAU auf eine gute Infrastruktur zurückgreifen]
...
The latest news from Stora Sahavaara is that the potential dimensions of the magnetite mineralization have been significantly increased and this will impact on the next resource estimate. ...
Yet another reason why Buck should meet his target of 500 million tones of magnetite earlier rather than later this year. Even then there should be plenty more to come, but that might signal the start of talks on transportation with LKAB as Northlands will then have earned the right to be taken seriously by the Swedes.
http://www.minesite.com/nc/min…te-early-this-year/1.html

http://er.handelsbanken.se/Att…10623-PR-54a3bef-44f4.pdf

>>
Company Update Price when published(USD): 2.90
12 februar 2008

STRONG BUY High Risk
Bloomberg: NAUR NO (rating unchanged)
Reuters: NAUR.OL Target Price (USD): 10.0
Sector: Basic Materials Market cap (USDm): 340
Style: Venture Analyst: Erik Roland
Financial Details of 12 februar 2008
Print version (pdf)

Re-initiating coverage: Grab your Iron Ore Bullet

Changing analyst, we re-initiate coverage upholding a Strong Buy recommendation with 12mo target NOK 55 per share. Upside of 264% will be gradually unlocked by studies confirming project economics

Having changed analyst, we re-initiate coverage on NAUR, maintaining our Strong Buy as the emerging Iron Ore producer presents an attractive risk/reward at current levels. We expect a revaluation of the share as projects in Sweden and Finland are firmed up by Scoping- and Feasibility studies during 2008/09, demonstrating cost-efficient mining operations at all projects.
We expect current NI 43-101 compliant resources of 412mt to increase to 500mt by year end as current drilling campaign is processed. Long-term ambition is to firm up 1bn tons of resources.

First production expected from Tapuli H2’09, Stora Sahavaara H2’10 and Hannukainen H2’11. Full production 2012E of 12 mtpa of sinter and pellets generating revenues of USD 1,13bn (incl. USD 154m Cu and Au credits).
Lacking economic studies (Scoping- & Feasibility), we emulate LKAB and Dannemora on cost. Both being more expensive underground mining operations, we conservatively estimate EBIT cost/t in the USD 45-46 range.
Estimated CAPEX is some USD 1,2bn to fund processing plants, pellet plant and mine infrastructure. We assume debt funding, but 20-30% dilution likely in 1-2 years. Current balance sheet is strong, USD 140m cash, no debt.
Valuation is attractive. Upside to Mid- to Long term producing peers on EV/Contained Fe of 64%. Our risked SOTP valuation indicates fair value of NOK 57 per share.

We re-initiate coverage with a 12mo target of NOK 55 per share – an upside of 264% from current levels.
See attached presentation for further details
The recommendation was not presented to the issuer before dissemination.<<

Was ist denn eigentlich aus BTV´s Iron-Ore am Brandy Hill [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.aznraps.com/forums/images/smilies/drunk.gif] geworden?

Pareto Update

NAUR (Strong Buy, TP NOK 55) -

FY Q4'08 a non-event but good news on recruiting
Northland
Resources published its fiscal year (FY) 2008 results today (2007
figures in our model) for period ending January 31st 2008. As could be
expected, the report at this stage of development was a non-event.
Still,…

FY Q4’08 income (interest) amounted to $1,7m
and net profit amounted to $3,5m – driven by a 7m foreign exchange gain
which was partly offset by $2,8m stock-based compensation charge.
Full
year results for the FY 2008 amounted to a loss of $7,61m compared to
negative $0,05m in FY 2007. Primarily driven by $7,57m stock-based
compensation charge. NAUR thus almost made a profit last year as
interest income of $4,3m and currency gains almost entirely financed
opex.
Cash balance was $138m exiting last year, thus the company
is well financed to fund exploration- and corporate commitments going
forward.
For this year, the company expects to spend some $40-50m
- driven by drilling campaigns and economic studies (Scoping study in
June and Feasibility studies towards the end of the year).

More important than the actual results was today’s news the company has
hired Mr. Karl-Axel Waplan as Managing Director of European operations.
Mr. Waplan was most recently President and CEO of Lundin Mining
Corporation (from April 2005 until January of this year, started in
2004 as Executive VP Operations). Previous to this he was COO of
Sudamin Ltd. responsible for the Ferro Alloys and Noble Alloys
activities. During the 90s, he was VP of Marketing and Sales for
Boliden and member of Bolden's Executive Management Committee. The
recruitment of Mr. Waplan, we believe, is a testimony to the quality of
NAURs projects enabling them to attract highly qualified people.
Ultimately, it is the people that are going to bring the projects
forward and Mr. Waplan will give ample leverage in building the
organization and following up the permitting, engineering, design and
construction phase.

We reiterate our Strong Buy and 12mo NOK 55 TP on NAUR.
We see Scoping Studies to be published towards the end of June as first major trigger to release some of the value we
see in the share.

June 24, 2008
Northland Resources Ought Now To Be Bullet Proof On Its Assumptions For Its Scandinavian Iron Ore Projects
By Rob Davies

...
The recent news that Rio Tinto has secured a price rise of 85 per cent
for its iron ore will be well received. Having such a large resource
right on the doorstep of Europe will make a big difference to consumers
who are finding that they are now wearing the shipping costs of moving
iron ore halfway across the world. The location of the three deposits
on the Swedish-Finnish border gives Northland
the option of transhipping through the port of Kemi on the Gulf of
Bothnia, or shipping from the ice-free port of Narvik in Norway. Only a
small amount of work would be needed to connect the three properties to
the existing rail network. One thing is for sure now though: all the
assumptions in this business model will be absolutely bullet proof.
http://www.minesite.com/nc/min…navian-magnetite-p/1.html

Northland Is Moving On, But Will Investors Do Likewise?
By Sarah Belfield
25 Jun 2008 at 04:47 PM GMT-04:00
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=43921